---
title: "BUA 345 - Lecture 1"
subtitle: "Welcome and Introduction to Business Analytics"
author: "Penelope Pooler Eisenbies"
date: last-modified
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toc-title: "Table of Contents"
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## Housekeeping
```{r setup, echo=FALSE, warning=F, message=F, include=F}
#| include: false
# this line specifies options for default options for all R Chunks
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo=F)
# suppress scientific notation
options(scipen=100)
# install helper package that loads and installs other packages, if needed
if (!require("pacman")) install.packages("pacman", repos = "http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/R/CRAN/")
# install and load required packages
pacman::p_load(pacman,tidyverse, magrittr, olsrr, shadowtext, mapproj, knitr, kableExtra,
countrycode, usdata, maps, RColorBrewer, gridExtra, ggthemes, gt,
mosaicData, epiDisplay, vistributions, psych, tidyquant, dygraphs)
# verify packages
# p_loaded()
```
### Today's plan
- Syllabus and Survey
- What are Business Analytics?
- Components
- What to Expect
- Examples
- Introductory Excel Skills
- Absolute (fixed) vs Relative cell references
<br>
## Course Websites and Syllabus
- [**Syllabus - Updated January 2026**](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TkkxTQQvnfEQRTUxmY-QQYgCunwxGE0p-H8ax15HraU/edit?usp=sharing){target="_blank"}
- [**Absence Explanation and Poll Everywhere Technical Issue Form**](https://forms.gle/ThN6XpwoRc5r4rnW6){target="_blank"}
- [**BUA 345 Blackboard Site**](https://blackboard.syracuse.edu/ultra/courses/_564300_1/outline){target="_blank"}
- Used for submitting engagement questions, homework assignments and tests
- [**Professor Pooler's BUA 345 Semester Website**](https://peneloopy.github.io/bua_345_sem/){target="_blank"}
- Provides semester-long access to R files for assignments andpractice questions, lecture recordings and video demos.
- [**Professor Pooler's BUA 345 Permanent Website**](https://peneloopy.github.io/bua_345_perm/){target="_blank"}
- Provides permanent access to slides, lecture notes and R projects
##
### A little about me
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- I grew up here and went to SU and then I left for…
- TRAVEL, GRAD SCHOOL, WORK
- I've Worked in Scotland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Chile and traveled all over…
- I went to graduate school in Oregon and Virginia
- I've worked in my field in West Virginia, Virginia, Mississippi, and Rhode Island.
- Worked for federal gov’t and in the private sector
- Taught at an adjacent college during each each job
- I still do Statistics/Analytics/Data Science consulting.
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##
### Business Analytics
- Finding, analyzing, and summarizing data to answer critical questions
- Basing decisions on data and evidence, INSTEAD of gut instinct, emotions, or anecdotes
- **Three Primary components of Business Analytics**:
- Descriptive Analytics
- Many ways to go about describing data effectively.
- In this class we will discuss using Excel Pivot Tables.
- Many other options including R and Pytthon but Excel skills are essential.
- Prescriptive Analytics
- BUA 345 provides a short introduction of how to use the Excel Solver for prescriptive analytics.
- In subsequent Supply Chain courses you will use this tool to go further.
##
##
### Primary components of Business Analytics Cont'd
- Predictive Analytics
- The majority of BUA 345 will focus on predictive analytics.
- There are MANY tools for predictive analytics.
- This course will focus on regression, model building, and model verification.
- In MAS 261 you (hopefully) covered
- Simple Linear Regression (SLR)
- An introduction to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
- A introduction to linear transformations
- BUA 345 will build on regression material from MAS 261.
- There will also be introduction to forecasting.
## Descriptive Analytics Example
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- A few years ago, the CEO of United Airlines stepped down due to bribery allegations.
- A new CEO stepped in at a time of crisis when the airline was critisized for putting profits before customer satisfaction.
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##
### Descriptive Analytics - Airline Crisis Management
Suppose you are Oscar Munoz and you want to boost United’s lackluster reputation.
- Which of the following issues would you address first ?
- Advertising Baggage Disability
- Discrimination Fares Flight Delays
- Overbooking Refunds Reservations
- Where might you find data to help you decide?
- Factual data sources:
- Customer Complaint Data
- Flight Delay/Cancellation/Bookings
- Baggage transportation information
##
### Airline Crisis Management - Examine the Data
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- Data Analytics leads us to prioritize three main areas to improve United’s reputation:
- Decrease Flight Delays
- Improve Baggage Handling, i.e. decrease loss and damage incidents
- Improve Customer Service Relationships
- These three areas comprise 63% of customer complaints.
- Intuitively these choices make sense and the data backs that up.
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##
### Lecture 1 In-class Exercise - Q1
[***Poll Everywhere***](https://pollev.com/penelopepoolereisenbies685){target="_blank"} - My User Name: **penelopepoolereisenbies685**
<br>
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A PR firm approaches United Airlines and says they can greatly improve customer relations with a new ad campaign combined with deals on some fares. How do you respond?
- OK. Advertising and fares together were more than 20% of our complaints.
- That’s debatable. Advertising and fares together were between 10% and 15% of our complaints.
- Not interested at this time. Advertising and fares together were less than 10% of our complaints.
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## Prescriptive Analytics
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- Apply OPTIMIZATION methods to data to find most favorable (most optimal) solution
- Doctors ‘prescribe’ the optimal treatment for your illness or injury
- Analysts ‘prescribe’ the optimal solution for your business
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##
### Prescriptive Analytics - Supply Chain Management Example
```{r prescrip_data}
Product <- c("iPad", "MacBook")
Dimensions <- c('10"x8"x2"', '26"x21.5"x9"')
`Retail Price` <- c("$380", "$1800")
prescrip_data <- tibble(Product, Dimensions, `Retail Price`)
```
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**You are the manager of an Apple Store**
- You use a 20’ x 9’ x 9’ container to ship iPads and iMacs.
- Based on the dimensions and prices shown, how do you MAXIMIZE the total value of goods shipped in this container?
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```{r data_table}
prescrip_data |> kable()
```
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##
### Supply Chain Management Example Cont'd
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**You are the manager of an Apple Store**
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- You use a 20’ x 9’ x 9’ container to ship iPads and iMacs.
- Based on the dimensions and prices shown, how do you MAXIMIZE the total value of goods shipped in this container?
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```{r data_table1}
prescrip_data |> kable()
```
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**Steps**
1. Convert container dimensions to inches.
2. Convert dimensions for container and products to volumes.
3. Determine what quantity of each will result in largest retail price for full container.
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## Predictive Analytics
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- Fit statistical models to relevant data data.
- Predict the future (forecast) using statistical models.
- Predict or reveal patterns or relationships in the data.
- Descriptive Analytics is often a precursor to Predictive Analytics.
- Can be used to provide information for Prescriptive analytics
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##
### Predictive Analytics - Stock Market Example
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- You are investor who has invested in Starbucks on the NASDAQ stock market.
- Using predictive analytics, you can FORECAST the closing price of your Starbucks stocks.
- Based on the forecasted price and your plans, you can decide to
- keep all of your stocks OR
- sell some of your stocks OR
- sell all of your stocks.
- Predictive Analytics allows you to make better, more informed investment decisions.
- We will cover an introduction to forecasting at the end of this course.
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##
### What to Expect in this course
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- No ‘heavy’ theoretical math
- No calculus or trigonometry
- Some ‘light’ applied math
- some basic algebra and a little basic geometry
- Spreadsheet Software Skills
- Excel skills (demo videos provided)
- A little coding in R to create models
- Demo videos provided
- Challenging ‘Fun’ questions and satisfaction in answering them
- Useful skills that can be applied to ANY business
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##
### Business Analytics Example - The Cincinnati Zoo
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- The zoo's team analyzed visitor data and food and gift purchase data.
- Based on the analysis, they
- eliminated ineffective campaigns and reduced advertising expenditures by 43%.
- cut annual marketing expenditures by \$40K.
- matched merchandise and food offerings to peak visitor times and increased sales revenue by 25%
- increased overall revenue by \$738K.
- Business Analytics is essential for effective business management and growth.
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## Excel Cell References
###
```{r bmind_data_prep, eval=F}
# download data from statista:
# Global price of a Big Mac as of July 2024, by country
# https://www.statista.com/statistics/274326/big-mac-index-global-prices-for-a-big-mac/
# U.S. dollar (USD) exchange rate against the forex currencies of countries and
# territories featured in the Big Mac Index from January 2024 to June 2024
# https://www-statista-com.libezproxy2.syr.edu/statistics/1039342/average-annual-exchange-rates-developed-emerging-countries/
bm_ind <- read_csv("data/big_mac_index_07012024.csv",
show_col_types = F, skip=3,
col_names = c("Country", "Price")) |>
arrange(Country)
bm_ind_exch <- read_csv("data/big_mac_countries_exchange_rates_06302024.csv",
show_col_types = F, skip=3,
col_name = c("Currency", "d1", "d2",
"d3", "d4", "d5", "Exchange")) |>
dplyr::select(1,7) |> glimpse() |>
separate_wider_delim(Currency, delim="(", names=c("Currency_full","Currency")) |>
mutate(Currency = gsub(")","",Currency,fixed = T)) |>
arrange(Currency) |>
dplyr::select(2,3)
country_currency <- read_csv("data/country_currency.csv", show_col_types = F)
bm_ind <- full_join(bm_ind, country_currency) |>
distinct(Country, .keep_all = T)
uspr <- big_mac_all$Index[big_mac_all$Country=="United States"]
big_mac_all <- full_join(bm_ind, bm_ind_exch) |>
mutate(Exchange = ifelse(Country=="United States", 1, Exchange)) |>
filter(Exchange != "n/a") |>
mutate(Exchange = gsub(",", "", Exchange, fixed = T) |> as.numeric()) |>
mutate(Price_Local = Price*Exchange,
Index = Price/uspr)
big_mac_all_exp <- big_mac_all |>
dplyr::select(Country, Currency, Price_Local, Exchange) |>
rename("Price (Local Currency)" = "Price_Local",
"Exchange Rate" = "Exchange") |>
write_csv("data/Big_Mac_Index.csv")
```
This short Exercise will demonstrate how to use cell references in Excel efficiently.
- By default, Excel Cell References are RELATIVE, but we can modify them to be ABSOLUTE.
- The [Big Mac Index](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/big-mac-index-purchasing-power-parity-burger-inflation/) is an informal way of comparing purchasing power in different countries.
- In the US, a Big Mac costs \$5.69 (based on average of prices in four US Cities in 2025).
::: fragment
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##
### Calculate Big Mac Exchange Rate
1. Divide Price (Local Currency) by US Price of Big Mac for each country.
- To do this, we use `$` to create a ABSOLUTE ROW reference to compare each country's price to the United State's price.
- If we ALSO wanted to fix the column (not needed here), we would put the `$` before the column letter.
- In cell `D2` type the following formula: `=C2/C$42`
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##
### Calculate Big Mac Exchange Rate Cont'd
2. Copy cell `D2` and paste it into cells `D3` through `D43`.
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3. Select column D and convert to `Number`.
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##
### Calculate Big Mac Exchange Rate Cont'd
4. Optional but useful: Use `=FORMULATEXT()` in Column `E` to see formulas in column `D`.
- In cell `E2` type `=FORMULATEXT(D2)`
- Copy cell `E2` and paste it into cell `E3` through `E43`.
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- Notice:
- The copy and paste operations copied the formula, NOT the value.
- The relative cell reference in the formula changed RELATIVE TO THE ROW LOCATION.
- The ABSOLUTE ROW reference stayed the same for every row.
##
### Lecture 1 In-class Exercise - Q2
[***Poll Everywhere***](https://pollev.com/penelopepoolereisenbies685){target="_blank"} - My User Name: **penelopepoolereisenbies685**
<br>
What is the Big Mac Exchange Rate for Norway?
<br>
**Also a word of caution:** If you sort data with an ABSOLUTE ROW reference, the data will be incorrect. BE CAREFUL!
## Over/Under Valued Calculation
- This calculation compares the Big Mac Exchange rate to the actual exchange rate.
- In this calculation, all of the cell references are RELATIVE.
1. In cell `G2`, type the following formula: `=(D2-F2)/F2`
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##
### Over/Under Valued Calculation Cont'd
2. Copy cell `G2` and paste it into cells `G3` through `G43`.
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3. Select column G and convert to `Percentage` and increase decimal places to 2 decimal places.
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##
### Over/Under Valued Calculation Cont'd
4. Optional but useful: Use `=FORMULATEXT()` in Column `H` to see formulas in column `G`.
- In cell `H2` type `=FORMULATEXT(G2)`
- Copy cell `H2` and paste it into cell `H3` through `H43`.
::: fragment
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:::
- Notice:
- The copy and paste operations copied the formula, NOT the value.
- The relative cell reference in the formula changed RELATIVE TO THE ROW LOCATION.
- There are no ABSOLUTE row or column references in this formula.
##
### Lecture 1 In-class Exercise - Q3
[***Poll Everywhere***](https://pollev.com/penelopepoolereisenbies685){target="_blank"} - My User Name: **penelopepoolereisenbies685**
<br>
The purchasing power for Switzerland is 41.83% higher than the purchasing power in the United States.
Is this the country with the highest purchasing power?
- To answer this question, type the following calculation in cell `J2` to calculate the maximum: `=MAX(G2:G43)`
<br>
**Again a word of caution:** If you sort data with an ABSOLUTE ROW reference, the data will be incorrect. BE CAREFUL!
##
### Lecture 1 In-class Exercise - Q4
[***Poll Everywhere***](https://pollev.com/penelopepoolereisenbies685){target="_blank"} - My User Name: **penelopepoolereisenbies685**
<br>
What is one (or more) possible weakness of this informal Big Mac Index?
**Multiple answers are correct. Choose ONE of the correct answers.**
<br>
A. Some ethnicities don’t eat beef.
B. Some countries don’t consume as much fast food as the Unites States.
C. Average prices don’t indicate variability.
D. I don't like Big Macs.
##
### Key Points from Today
- Components of Business Analytics
- Descriptive Analytics
- Prescriptive Analytics
- Predictive Analytics
- Basics of Excel Spreadsheet skills
- Relative cell references
- Absolute cell references
- Row: Set as ABSOLUTE (fixed) with a \$ before ROW number
- Column: Set as ABSOLUTE (fixed) with a \$ before COLUMN letter(s)
- Using RELATIVE and ABSOLUTE references makes EXCEL very efficient for data calculations.
::: fragment
**To submit an Engagement Question or Comment about material from Lecture 1:** Submit it by midnight today (day of lecture).
:::