Appendix for Chapter 1

Author

Affiliation

Tom Hanna

University of Houston

Keywords

autocracy promotion, conflict, ideology, revisionist states

Part 1: Dyadic Models

Dyadic Models Methods

• First set Additional Controls

    - Logistic regression: A standard GLM model with additional controls for H1 and H2
  
    - Linear Probability Model: A standard linear probability model with additional controls and interaction effects for H1 and H2

• Second Set

    - Interaction Models for several possible confounding variables with full controls

Final Set

    - Rare Events Logit based on King and Zeng, 2001

    - Panel LPM: This is a panel linear model (linear probability model) with twoway, within effects. All additional covariates had to be omitted for the model to not be computationally singular. 

    - WLS: Panel weighted least squares model with twoway, within effects. Some controls are omitted as unnecessary or harmful in a fixed effects model. The model is weighted by probability of conflict providing an alternative to rare events logit.

    - Fixed effects model: This is a panel logistic regression model using dyadic fixed effects. 

Logits and LPMs - all models

# logit model

h1full <- glm(sidea_revisionist ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities + sidea_e_miinteco + cold_war + sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = autocracies)






h2full <- glm(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities + sidea_e_miinteco + cold_war + sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = autocracies) 







alternate1full <- glm(sidea_revisionist ~ sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities + sidea_e_miinteco + cold_war + sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = autocracies) 



alternate1int <- lm(sidea_revisionist ~ sidea_dynamic_leader * sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, data = autocracies) 



alternate2full <- glm(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = autocracies) 




alternate2int <- lm(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_dynamic_leader * sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, data = autocracies) 



stargazer(h1full,h2full,alternate1full,alternate2full, type = "text")

========================================================================================================================
                                                                     Dependent variable:                                
                                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     sidea_revisionist sidea_targets_democracy sidea_revisionist sidea_targets_democracy
                                            (1)                  (2)                  (3)                  (4)          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sidea_dynamic_leader                                                               -0.206***             -0.128*        
                                                                                    (0.037)              (0.066)        
                                                                                                                        
sidea_revisionist_domestic               0.742***             1.218***             0.917***             1.423***        
                                          (0.047)              (0.088)              (0.058)              (0.111)        
                                                                                                                        
sidea_national_military_capabilities     13.645***            18.268***            14.601***            22.514***       
                                          (1.090)              (1.721)              (1.101)              (1.626)        
                                                                                                                        
sideb_national_military_capabilities     14.300***            18.494***            14.291***            18.376***       
                                          (0.529)              (0.661)              (0.529)              (0.648)        
                                                                                                                        
sidea_e_miinteco                         1.577***             1.392***             1.570***                             
                                          (0.092)              (0.161)              (0.092)                             
                                                                                                                        
cold_war                                 -0.233***            -0.987***            -0.242***            -0.685***       
                                          (0.089)              (0.132)              (0.089)              (0.125)        
                                                                                                                        
sidea_military_support                   0.565***             0.790***             0.685***             1.132***        
                                          (0.152)              (0.276)              (0.153)              (0.272)        
                                                                                                                        
sidea_winning_coalition_size             1.419***             1.742***             1.820***             2.429***        
                                          (0.317)              (0.577)              (0.327)              (0.586)        
                                                                                                                        
t                                        0.343***               0.064              0.340***             -0.253**        
                                          (0.082)              (0.107)              (0.081)              (0.100)        
                                                                                                                        
t2                                       -0.041***             -0.011              -0.041***              0.008         
                                          (0.010)              (0.010)              (0.009)              (0.009)        
                                                                                                                        
t3                                       0.001***              0.0003              0.001***              -0.0001        
                                         (0.0002)             (0.0002)             (0.0002)             (0.0002)        
                                                                                                                        
sidea_muslim                             0.867***             1.478***             1.014***             1.826***        
                                          (0.094)              (0.164)              (0.099)              (0.171)        
                                                                                                                        
Constant                                 -8.588***           -10.029***            -8.773***            -9.909***       
                                          (0.251)              (0.438)              (0.258)              (0.464)        
                                                                                                                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                              316,435              316,435              316,435              316,435        
Log Likelihood                          -5,595.281           -2,180.062           -5,580.632           -2,211.310       
Akaike Inf. Crit.                       11,214.560            4,384.125           11,187.260            4,446.619       
========================================================================================================================
Note:                                                                                        *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

stargazer(alternate1int,alternate2int, type = "text")

=========================================================================================
                                                           Dependent variable:           
                                                -----------------------------------------
                                                sidea_revisionist sidea_targets_democracy
                                                       (1)                  (2)          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sidea_dynamic_leader                               -0.0004***            -0.0002**       
                                                    (0.0001)             (0.0001)        
                                                                                         
sidea_revisionist_domestic                          0.002***             0.001***        
                                                    (0.0002)             (0.0001)        
                                                                                         
sidea_national_military_capabilities                0.105***             0.046***        
                                                     (0.005)              (0.003)        
                                                                                         
sideb_national_military_capabilities                0.162***             0.124***        
                                                     (0.005)              (0.003)        
                                                                                         
sidea_military_support                              0.002***             0.001***        
                                                    (0.0004)             (0.0002)        
                                                                                         
sidea_winning_coalition_size                        0.005***              0.001**        
                                                     (0.001)             (0.0005)        
                                                                                         
cold_war                                            0.001***             -0.001***       
                                                    (0.0003)             (0.0002)        
                                                                                         
t                                                   -0.001***           -0.0005***       
                                                    (0.0002)             (0.0001)        
                                                                                         
t2                                                  0.00003*            0.00003***       
                                                    (0.00002)            (0.00001)       
                                                                                         
t3                                                  -0.00000            -0.00000**       
                                                    (0.00000)            (0.00000)       
                                                                                         
sidea_muslim                                        0.004***             0.002***        
                                                    (0.0003)             (0.0002)        
                                                                                         
sidea_dynamic_leader:sidea_revisionist_domestic     0.0002**             0.0003***       
                                                    (0.0001)             (0.0001)        
                                                                                         
Constant                                            -0.002**              -0.0003        
                                                     (0.001)             (0.0005)        
                                                                                         
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                                         316,435              316,435        
R2                                                    0.007                0.008         
Adjusted R2                                           0.007                0.008         
Residual Std. Error (df = 316422)                     0.054                0.033         
F Statistic (df = 12; 316422)                      175.508***           209.274***       
=========================================================================================
Note:                                                         *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

stargazer(alternate2int, type = "text")

============================================================================
                                                    Dependent variable:     
                                                ----------------------------
                                                  sidea_targets_democracy   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
sidea_dynamic_leader                                     -0.0002**          
                                                          (0.0001)          
                                                                            
sidea_revisionist_domestic                                0.001***          
                                                          (0.0001)          
                                                                            
sidea_national_military_capabilities                      0.046***          
                                                          (0.003)           
                                                                            
sideb_national_military_capabilities                      0.124***          
                                                          (0.003)           
                                                                            
sidea_military_support                                    0.001***          
                                                          (0.0002)          
                                                                            
sidea_winning_coalition_size                              0.001**           
                                                          (0.0005)          
                                                                            
cold_war                                                 -0.001***          
                                                          (0.0002)          
                                                                            
t                                                        -0.0005***         
                                                          (0.0001)          
                                                                            
t2                                                       0.00003***         
                                                         (0.00001)          
                                                                            
t3                                                       -0.00000**         
                                                         (0.00000)          
                                                                            
sidea_muslim                                              0.002***          
                                                          (0.0002)          
                                                                            
sidea_dynamic_leader:sidea_revisionist_domestic          0.0003***          
                                                          (0.0001)          
                                                                            
Constant                                                  -0.0003           
                                                          (0.0005)          
                                                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                                              316,435           
R2                                                         0.008            
Adjusted R2                                                0.008            
Residual Std. Error                                 0.033 (df = 316422)     
F Statistic                                     209.274*** (df = 12; 316422)
============================================================================
Note:                                            *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

plot_model(h1full, type = "pred", terms = "sidea_revisionist_domestic", title = "GLM model Predicted Probabilities")

## plot predicted probabilities for h1alternatefull using sjplot plot_model

plot_model(alternate1full, type = "pred", terms = c("sidea_dynamic_leader","sidea_revisionist_domestic"), title = "GLM model Predicted Probabilities")

## plot predicted probabitilies for h2alternatefull using sjplot plot_model

plot_model(alternate1int, type = "pred", terms = c("sidea_dynamic_leader","sidea_revisionist_domestic"), title = "Linear model with interaction effects \n Predicted Probabilities")

## plot predicted probabilities for alternate2full using sjplot plot_model

plot_model(alternate2full, type = "pred", terms = c("sidea_dynamic_leader","sidea_revisionist_domestic"), title = "GLM model Predicted Probabilities")

## plot predicted probabitilies for alternate2int using sjplot plot_model

plot_model(alternate2int, type = "pred", terms = c("sidea_dynamic_leader","sidea_revisionist_domestic"), title = "Linear model with interaction effects \n Predicted Probabilities")

plot_model(alternate2int, type = "pred", terms = c("sidea_revisionist_domestic", "sidea_dynamic_leader"), title = "Linear model with interaction effects \n Predicted Probabilities")

Interaction models with other control / explanatory variables

W_int <- lm(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic  *  sidea_winning_coalition_size + sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support  + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = autocracies) 




## plot predicted probabitilies for W_int using sjplot plot_model

plot_model(W_int, type = "pred", terms = c("sidea_winning_coalition_size","sidea_revisionist_domestic"), title = "Linear model with interaction effects \n Minimal Winning Coalition \n Predicted Probabilities")

mil_supp_int <- lm(sidea_targets_democracy ~  sidea_revisionist_domestic *sidea_military_support +  sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +   sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = autocracies) 




## plot predicted probabitilies for mil_supp_int using sjplot plot_model

plot_model(mil_supp_int, type = "pred", terms = c("sidea_military_support","sidea_revisionist_domestic"), title = "Linear model with interaction effects \n Minimal Military Support Interaction \n Predicted Probabilities")

plot_model(mil_supp_int, type = "pred", terms = c("sidea_revisionist_domestic","sidea_military_support"), title = "Linear model with interaction effects \n Military Support Interaction \n Predicted Probabilities")

cold_war_int <- lm(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic  * cold_war + sidea_winning_coalition_size + sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support  + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, family = binomial(link = "logit"), data = autocracies) 


stargazer(W_int,mil_supp_int,cold_war_int, type = "text")

========================================================================================
                                                              Dependent variable:       
                                                        --------------------------------
                                                            sidea_targets_democracy     
                                                           (1)        (2)        (3)    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sidea_revisionist_domestic                               0.001***   0.001***   0.002*** 
                                                         (0.0001)   (0.0002)   (0.0002) 
                                                                                        
sidea_winning_coalition_size                              0.001     0.002***   0.002*** 
                                                         (0.001)    (0.0005)   (0.0005) 
                                                                                        
sidea_dynamic_leader                                      0.0001    0.0001*     0.0001  
                                                         (0.0001)   (0.0001)   (0.0001) 
                                                                                        
sidea_national_military_capabilities                     0.047***   0.047***   0.049*** 
                                                         (0.003)    (0.003)    (0.003)  
                                                                                        
sideb_national_military_capabilities                     0.124***   0.124***   0.124*** 
                                                         (0.003)    (0.003)    (0.003)  
                                                                                        
sidea_military_support                                   0.001***   0.001***   0.001*** 
                                                         (0.0002)   (0.0003)   (0.0002) 
                                                                                        
cold_war                                                -0.001***  -0.001***   0.0005** 
                                                         (0.0002)   (0.0002)   (0.0002) 
                                                                                        
t                                                       -0.0004*** -0.0004*** -0.0004***
                                                         (0.0001)   (0.0001)   (0.0001) 
                                                                                        
t2                                                      0.00002**  0.00002**  0.00002** 
                                                        (0.00001)  (0.00001)  (0.00001) 
                                                                                        
t3                                                      -0.00000*   -0.00000   -0.00000 
                                                        (0.00000)  (0.00000)  (0.00000) 
                                                                                        
sidea_muslim                                             0.002***   0.002***   0.002*** 
                                                         (0.0002)   (0.0002)   (0.0002) 
                                                                                        
sidea_revisionist_domestic:sidea_winning_coalition_size  0.001**                        
                                                         (0.001)                        
                                                                                        
sidea_revisionist_domestic:sidea_military_support                    0.0004             
                                                                    (0.0002)            
                                                                                        
sidea_revisionist_domestic:cold_war                                           -0.001*** 
                                                                               (0.0002) 
                                                                                        
Constant                                                 -0.0005     -0.001   -0.002*** 
                                                         (0.001)    (0.0005)   (0.0005) 
                                                                                        
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                                             316,435    316,435    316,435  
R2                                                        0.008      0.008      0.008   
Adjusted R2                                               0.008      0.008      0.008   
Residual Std. Error (df = 316422)                         0.033      0.033      0.033   
F Statistic (df = 12; 316422)                           207.141*** 206.790*** 213.106***
========================================================================================
Note:                                                        *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Other models - sidea_revisionist

# rare events logit model

h1re <- zelig(sidea_revisionist ~  sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, model = "relogit", data = autocracies, cite = FALSE)

h1relogit <- unzelig(h1re)

stargazer(h1relogit, type = "text")

====================================================================================
                                                   Dependent variable:              
                                     -----------------------------------------------
                                     cbind(sidea_revisionist, 1 - sidea_revisionist)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sidea_revisionist_domestic                              1.000***                    
                                                         (0.057)                    
                                                                                    
sidea_dynamic_leader                                    -0.201***                   
                                                         (0.036)                    
                                                                                    
sidea_national_military_capabilities                    19.280***                   
                                                         (1.022)                    
                                                                                    
sideb_national_military_capabilities                    14.176***                   
                                                         (0.519)                    
                                                                                    
sidea_military_support                                  0.954***                    
                                                         (0.149)                    
                                                                                    
sidea_winning_coalition_size                            2.195***                    
                                                         (0.319)                    
                                                                                    
cold_war                                                  0.105                     
                                                         (0.086)                    
                                                                                    
t                                                        -0.092                     
                                                         (0.071)                    
                                                                                    
t2                                                       -0.009                     
                                                         (0.008)                    
                                                                                    
t3                                                       0.0003*                    
                                                        (0.0002)                    
                                                                                    
sidea_muslim                                            1.396***                    
                                                         (0.098)                    
                                                                                    
Constant                                                -8.455***                   
                                                         (0.269)                    
                                                                                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                                             316,435                    
Log Likelihood                                         -5,706.829                   
Akaike Inf. Crit.                                      11,437.660                   
====================================================================================
Note:                                                    *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Weighted Least Squares Panel Model

# WLS panel model 
               
prop_conflict <- mean(autocracies$sidea_revisionist)  # Calculate proportion of conflict
autocracies$weights <- ifelse(autocracies$sidea_revisionist == 1, 1/prop_conflict, 1/(1-prop_conflict))          
        
h1wls <- plm(sidea_revisionist ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader, effect = "twoways", model = "within", index = c("dyad","year"), weights = weights, data = autocracies)

stargazer(h1wls, type = "text")

=========================================================
                                Dependent variable:      
                           ------------------------------
                                 sidea_revisionist       
---------------------------------------------------------
sidea_revisionist_domestic            0.365***           
                                      (0.002)            
                                                         
sidea_dynamic_leader                 -0.126***           
                                      (0.001)            
                                                         
---------------------------------------------------------
Observations                          638,280            
R2                                     0.0002            
Adjusted R2                            -0.039            
F Statistic                13,570.480*** (df = 2; 614460)
=========================================================
Note:                         *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Dyadic Fixed Effects Model

# fixed effects model           
        
h1fe <-  bife(sidea_revisionist ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + sidea_muslim + t + t2 + t3 | dyad, model = "logit", data = autocracies) 

summary(h1fe)

binomial - logit link

sidea_revisionist ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader + 
    sidea_military_support + sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + 
    sidea_muslim + t + t2 + t3 | dyad

Estimates:
                                            Estimate              Std. error
sidea_revisionist_domestic                 0.8009710               0.1271421
sidea_dynamic_leader                      -0.4341788               0.0764601
sidea_military_support                     2.0043512               0.3967025
sidea_winning_coalition_size               0.2681947               0.6335414
cold_war                                  -0.1705149               0.1080527
sidea_muslim                 175703102236015.5937500 128930077013550.9687500
t                                         -0.4063526               0.1075794
t2                                         0.0262656               0.0140649
t3                                        -0.0005908               0.0004611
                             z value      Pr(> |z|)    
sidea_revisionist_domestic     6.300 0.000000000298 ***
sidea_dynamic_leader          -5.679 0.000000013588 ***
sidea_military_support         5.053 0.000000435996 ***
sidea_winning_coalition_size   0.423       0.672057    
cold_war                      -1.578       0.114549    
sidea_muslim                   1.363       0.172952    
t                             -3.777       0.000159 ***
t2                             1.867       0.061838 .  
t3                            -1.281       0.200091    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

residual deviance= 5020.66,
null deviance= 6419.44,
n= 9540, N= 278

( 92232 observation(s) deleted due to missingness )
( 549684 observation(s) deleted due to perfect classification )

Number of Fisher Scoring Iterations: 25 

Average individual fixed effect= -78787639856702

Other models - sidea_targets_democracy

Rare Events Logit

# rare events logit model

h2re <- zelig(sidea_targets_democracy ~  sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + t + t2 + t3 + sidea_muslim, model = "relogit", data = autocracies, cite = FALSE)

h2relogit <- unzelig(h2re)

stargazer(h2relogit, type = "text")

================================================================================================
                                                         Dependent variable:                    
                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
                                     cbind(sidea_targets_democracy, 1 - sidea_targets_democracy)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sidea_revisionist_domestic                                    1.423***                          
                                                               (0.111)                          
                                                                                                
sidea_dynamic_leader                                           -0.128*                          
                                                               (0.066)                          
                                                                                                
sidea_national_military_capabilities                          22.514***                         
                                                               (1.626)                          
                                                                                                
sideb_national_military_capabilities                          18.376***                         
                                                               (0.648)                          
                                                                                                
sidea_military_support                                        1.132***                          
                                                               (0.272)                          
                                                                                                
sidea_winning_coalition_size                                  2.429***                          
                                                               (0.586)                          
                                                                                                
cold_war                                                      -0.685***                         
                                                               (0.125)                          
                                                                                                
t                                                             -0.253**                          
                                                               (0.100)                          
                                                                                                
t2                                                              0.008                           
                                                               (0.009)                          
                                                                                                
t3                                                             -0.0001                          
                                                              (0.0002)                          
                                                                                                
sidea_muslim                                                  1.826***                          
                                                               (0.171)                          
                                                                                                
Constant                                                      -9.909***                         
                                                               (0.464)                          
                                                                                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                                                   316,435                          
Log Likelihood                                               -2,211.310                         
Akaike Inf. Crit.                                             4,446.619                         
================================================================================================
Note:                                                                *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Panel Linear Model

# panel linear model

h2plm <- plm(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader, effect = "twoways", model = "within", index = c("dyad","year"), data = autocracies)


stargazer(h2plm, type = "text")

======================================================
                               Dependent variable:    
                           ---------------------------
                             sidea_targets_democracy  
------------------------------------------------------
sidea_revisionist_domestic          0.0005***         
                                    (0.0001)          
                                                      
sidea_dynamic_leader                -0.00002          
                                    (0.0001)          
                                                      
------------------------------------------------------
Observations                         638,280          
R2                                   0.0001           
Adjusted R2                          -0.039           
F Statistic                16.447*** (df = 2; 614460) 
======================================================
Note:                      *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Weighted Least Squares Panel Model

# WLS panel model 
               
prop_conflict2 <- mean(autocracies$sidea_targets_democracy)  # Calculate proportion of conflict
autocracies$weights2 <- ifelse(autocracies$sidea_targets_democracy == 1, 1/prop_conflict2, 1/(1-prop_conflict2))          
        
h2wls <- plm(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader, effect = "twoways", model = "within", 
index = c("dyad","year"), weights = weights2, data = autocracies)


stargazer(h2wls, type = "text")

=========================================================
                                Dependent variable:      
                           ------------------------------
                              sidea_targets_democracy    
---------------------------------------------------------
sidea_revisionist_domestic            0.366***           
                                      (0.002)            
                                                         
sidea_dynamic_leader                 -0.091***           
                                      (0.001)            
                                                         
---------------------------------------------------------
Observations                          638,280            
R2                                    0.00005            
Adjusted R2                            -0.039            
F Statistic                11,080.780*** (df = 2; 614460)
=========================================================
Note:                         *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Dyadic Fixed Effects Model

# fixed effects model           
        
h2fe <-  bife(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities +  sidea_military_support +  sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + sidea_muslim + t + t2 + t3 | dyad, model = "logit", data = autocracies) 

# h2pglm <- pglm(sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities + sidea_e_miinteco, data = autocracies, effect = "time", model = "within", family = binomial(link = "logit"))
      
summary(h2fe)

binomial - logit link

sidea_targets_democracy ~ sidea_revisionist_domestic + sidea_dynamic_leader + 
    sidea_national_military_capabilities + sideb_national_military_capabilities + 
    sidea_military_support + sidea_winning_coalition_size + cold_war + 
    sidea_muslim + t + t2 + t3 | dyad

Estimates:
                                                    Estimate
sidea_revisionist_domestic                         1.7121997
sidea_dynamic_leader                              -0.5672233
sidea_national_military_capabilities              66.4562633
sideb_national_military_capabilities             -15.2659627
sidea_military_support                             4.9792400
sidea_winning_coalition_size                       6.7734465
cold_war                                          -0.4922531
sidea_muslim                          79422960859867.6406250
t                                                 -0.7307293
t2                                                 0.0517126
t3                                                -0.0010707
                                                  Std. error z value
sidea_revisionist_domestic                         0.3320888   5.156
sidea_dynamic_leader                               0.1370634  -4.138
sidea_national_military_capabilities              11.5202061   5.769
sideb_national_military_capabilities               4.1459887  -3.682
sidea_military_support                             0.8740497   5.697
sidea_winning_coalition_size                       1.4576541   4.647
cold_war                                           0.1815478  -2.711
sidea_muslim                         371818342720829.6250000   0.214
t                                                  0.1648707  -4.432
t2                                                 0.0176531   2.929
t3                                                 0.0004707  -2.275
                                         Pr(> |z|)    
sidea_revisionist_domestic           0.00000025248 ***
sidea_dynamic_leader                 0.00003497364 ***
sidea_national_military_capabilities 0.00000000799 ***
sideb_national_military_capabilities      0.000231 ***
sidea_military_support               0.00000001221 ***
sidea_winning_coalition_size         0.00000337102 ***
cold_war                                  0.006699 ** 
sidea_muslim                              0.830854    
t                                    0.00000933048 ***
t2                                        0.003396 ** 
t3                                        0.022922 *  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

residual deviance= 1655.19,
null deviance= 2201.78,
n= 3279, N= 87

( 335021 observation(s) deleted due to missingness )
( 313156 observation(s) deleted due to perfect classification )

Number of Fisher Scoring Iterations: 25 

Average individual fixed effect= -32515929477082

Part 2: Monadic Models

Monadic Models Methods

The Monadic Models draw on data from the First Use of Violent Force Dataset (Caprioli and Trumbore 2006). This is a much smaller dataset both in time and scope. The data examines all MIDS from 1980 to 2002. Because the data size is already reduced, I do not use the rare events or weighted OLS models. I use a panel linear model, a panel GLM model, and a standard logit model for each.

Authors cited

Complete citations are included in the manuscript and will be updated here as this draft is completed.

Authorship and License

• Author: Tom Hanna

• Copyright 2020-2025

• Website: tomhanna.me

• License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.