Value-Added: Preliminary Insights from Prova Brasil

Taking SD and AVG of all variables to the whole dataset

data_all <- bind_rows(data_black_final, data_white_final, data_black_brown_final)

# List of variables to normalize
variables <- c(
  "LEITURA_5TH_GRADE",
  "LEITURA_9TH_GRADE", 
  "MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE",
  "MATEMATICA_9TH_GRADE",
  "NSE_AVG",
  "SEXO_M",
  "RACA_PRETO",
  "DROP_OUT_RATE",
  "NUM_SCHOOLS",
  "proportion_estadual",
  "avg_index_violence",
  "kl_raca",
  "kl_NSE",
  "kl_raca_ses",
  "ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2", 
  "afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5"
)
stats <- data_all %>%
  summarise(across(all_of(variables), list(mean = ~mean(. , na.rm = TRUE), 
                                           sd = ~sd(. , na.rm = TRUE))))
stats

# Função de normalização usando médias e desvios padrão globais
normalize_global <- function(df, stats) {
  df <- df %>%
    mutate(across(all_of(variables), 
                  ~ (. - stats[[paste0(cur_column(), "_mean")]]) / stats[[paste0(cur_column(), "_sd")]]
                 )
          )
  return(df)
}

# Normalizar cada dataset separadamente usando as médias e desvios globais
data_black_final_norm <- normalize_global(data_black_final, stats)
data_white_final_norm <- normalize_global(data_white_final, stats)
data_black_brown_final_norm <- normalize_global(data_black_brown_final, stats)

#delete raw dataset to avoid confusion

rm("data_black_brown_final", "data_black_final", "data_white_final", "data_all")

Results

White students top SES

Summary satistics of cohorts gains

data_final_municipio$COHORT <- as.factor(data_final_municipio$COHORT)
data_final_municipio$Uf <- as.factor(data_final_municipio$Uf)
data_final_municipio$Uf <- relevel(data_final_municipio$Uf, ref = "GO")

Regression analysis - Reading

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
LEITURA_5TH_GRADE	0.493***	0.499***	0.498***	0.499***	0.499***	0.430***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.197***	-0.134***	-0.133***	-0.134***	-0.134***	-0.107***
	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.031)
COHORT2011-2015	0.019	0.091**	0.092**	0.091**	0.091**	0.122***
	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.032)
COHORT2013-2017	0.105**	0.181***	0.184***	0.181***	0.181***	0.239***
	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)
RACA_PRETO	0.054***	0.032*	0.030	0.032*	0.033*	-0.023
	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)
NSE_AVG	0.148***	0.150***	0.152***	0.150***	0.151***	0.297***
	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)
SEXO_M	-0.085***	-0.066***	-0.067***	-0.066***	-0.066***	-0.064***
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.035***	0.035***	0.035***	0.035***	0.001
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.030**	-0.030**	-0.030**	-0.031**	-0.015
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.005	-0.004	-0.005	-0.005	-0.005
		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
proportion_estadual		-0.034***	-0.035***	-0.034***	-0.034***	-0.037***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)
avg_index_violence		-0.046***	-0.046***	-0.046***	-0.046***	-0.043***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.078***	0.079***	0.078***	0.078***	0.080***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
kl_raca			-0.008
			(0.005)
kl_NSE				-0.0001
				(0.006)
kl_raca_ses					-0.002	0.008
					(0.005)	(0.005)
UfAC						0.020
						(0.139)
UfAM						-0.265*
						(0.105)
UfAP						-0.815***
						(0.134)
UfBA						-0.280***
						(0.071)
UfCE						0.564
						(0.361)
UfDF						-0.486
						(0.258)
UfES						-0.137***
						(0.041)
UfMA						-0.182
						(0.230)
UfMG						-0.006
						(0.024)
UfMS						-0.163***
						(0.036)
UfMT						-0.351***
						(0.033)
UfPA						-0.348**
						(0.112)
UfPB						-0.423***
						(0.122)
UfPE						-0.115
						(0.113)
UfPI						0.062
						(0.511)
UfPR						-0.409***
						(0.025)
UfRJ						-0.311***
						(0.036)
UfRN						-0.287**
						(0.096)
UfRO						-0.098
						(0.058)
UfRR						-0.528***
						(0.131)
UfRS						-0.420***
						(0.027)
UfSC						-0.421***
						(0.028)
UfSE						-0.938***
						(0.256)
UfSP						-0.253***
						(0.023)
UfTO						0.038
						(0.061)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.052**	-0.046*	-0.046*	-0.046*	-0.046*	-0.045*
	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.019)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.075***	-0.070***	-0.070***	-0.070***	-0.071***	-0.058**
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.084***	-0.075***	-0.075***	-0.075***	-0.075***	-0.068***
	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.022	0.020	0.020	0.020	0.019	0.009
	(0.033)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.031)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.002	-0.014	-0.014	-0.014	-0.014	-0.012
	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.032)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	0.036	0.026	0.026	0.026	0.026	0.030
	(0.034)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.032)
Constant	0.274***	0.272***	0.270***	0.272***	0.271***	0.409***
	(0.022)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.028)
Observations	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584
R2	0.442	0.458	0.458	0.458	0.458	0.494
Adjusted R2	0.442	0.457	0.457	0.457	0.457	0.492
Residual Std. Error	0.534 (df = 10570)	0.527 (df = 10564)	0.527 (df = 10563)	0.527 (df = 10563)	0.527 (df = 10563)	0.509 (df = 10538)
F Statistic	644.655*** (df = 13; 10570)	470.187*** (df = 19; 10564)	446.840*** (df = 20; 10563)	446.636*** (df = 20; 10563)	446.647*** (df = 20; 10563)	229.069*** (df = 45; 10538)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	0.2022107	0.3844519	0.0203259	1.0895498
AM	-0.1111601	0.3019303	-0.2648676	0.8043563
AP	-0.7503097	0.4866705	-0.8145137	0.2547103
BA	-0.2866326	0.2218959	-0.2800417	0.7891822
CE	0.9905992	0.2109913	0.5637172	1.6329412
DF	1.1172807	1.2988187	-0.4860019	0.5832220
ES	0.9058595	0.5658130	-0.1366297	0.9325942
GO	0.6265323	0.5497743	0.0000000	1.0692240
MA	-0.2422163	0.1346222	-0.1821317	0.8870922
MG	1.3438240	0.6508507	-0.0059408	1.0632832
MS	0.4275138	0.7441992	-0.1630486	0.9061754
MT	0.3266091	0.5172174	-0.3511656	0.7180584
PA	-0.2065071	0.2584261	-0.3477280	0.7214960
PB	0.0940129	0.2347318	-0.4234520	0.6457720
PE	-0.0372949	0.4865293	-0.1148646	0.9543593
PI	-1.2050710	0.1842705	0.0615185	1.1307424
PR	0.8035517	0.8531389	-0.4089414	0.6602826
RJ	0.7554335	0.8090525	-0.3108511	0.7583729
RN	-0.0700053	0.2320389	-0.2874495	0.7817745
RO	0.2458552	0.3937825	-0.0975005	0.9717235
RR	-0.3964444	0.5450907	-0.5282382	0.5409858
RS	0.8373548	1.3146422	-0.4200834	0.6491406
SC	0.7916782	1.2226669	-0.4210825	0.6481415
SE	-0.8502560	0.1182638	-0.9377364	0.1314875
SP	1.0652212	0.9521656	-0.2526163	0.8166076
TO	0.1191165	0.3378308	0.0380607	1.1072847

Regression analysis - Math

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE	0.531***	0.541***	0.540***	0.540***	0.539***	0.470***
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.393***	-0.324***	-0.324***	-0.324***	-0.325***	-0.296***
	(0.035)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.034)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.280***	-0.201***	-0.201***	-0.202***	-0.204***	-0.199***
	(0.036)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.035)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.248***	-0.161***	-0.160***	-0.160***	-0.160***	-0.158***
	(0.036)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.036)
RACA_PRETO	-0.012	-0.035*	-0.037*	-0.033*	-0.031	-0.106***
	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)
NSE_AVG	0.218***	0.222***	0.223***	0.228***	0.233***	0.354***
	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.027)
SEXO_M	-0.043***	-0.019**	-0.019**	-0.019**	-0.019**	-0.003
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.072***	0.073***	0.073***	0.075***	0.014
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.008	-0.008	-0.008	-0.009	-0.020
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.016***	-0.016***	-0.015***	-0.014**	-0.012**
		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
proportion_estadual		-0.047***	-0.048***	-0.049***	-0.050***	-0.052***
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
avg_index_violence		-0.057***	-0.057***	-0.057***	-0.057***	-0.045***
		(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.090***	0.091***	0.091***	0.091***	0.061***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
kl_raca			-0.004
			(0.006)
kl_NSE				-0.011
				(0.006)
kl_raca_ses					-0.018**	-0.016**
					(0.006)	(0.006)
UfAC						0.025
						(0.152)
UfAM						-0.560***
						(0.115)
UfAP						-0.943***
						(0.147)
UfBA						-0.125
						(0.078)
UfCE						0.353
						(0.397)
UfDF						-0.319
						(0.283)
UfES						0.168***
						(0.045)
UfMA						-0.311
						(0.252)
UfMG						0.151***
						(0.027)
UfMS						-0.153***
						(0.040)
UfMT						-0.295***
						(0.036)
UfPA						-0.423***
						(0.123)
UfPB						-0.184
						(0.134)
UfPE						-0.124
						(0.124)
UfPI						0.457
						(0.561)
UfPR						-0.406***
						(0.028)
UfRJ						-0.176***
						(0.040)
UfRN						-0.220*
						(0.105)
UfRO						-0.062
						(0.064)
UfRR						-0.528***
						(0.144)
UfRS						-0.304***
						(0.029)
UfSC						-0.293***
						(0.030)
UfSE						-0.691*
						(0.281)
UfSP						-0.362***
						(0.026)
UfTO						0.156*
						(0.067)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.018	0.025	0.025	0.025	0.024	0.013
	(0.023)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.019	-0.016	-0.016	-0.017	-0.018	-0.007
	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.020)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.053*	-0.044*	-0.044*	-0.046*	-0.047*	-0.033
	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.003	0.005	0.005	0.004	0.003	-0.017
	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.034)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.019	-0.031	-0.030	-0.031	-0.032	-0.009
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.035)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	0.015	0.007	0.007	0.007	0.006	0.042
	(0.038)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.036)
Constant	0.423***	0.449***	0.448***	0.445***	0.444***	0.516***
	(0.025)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.031)
Observations	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584
R2	0.369	0.397	0.397	0.397	0.398	0.451
Adjusted R2	0.368	0.396	0.396	0.396	0.396	0.449
Residual Std. Error	0.599 (df = 10570)	0.585 (df = 10564)	0.585 (df = 10563)	0.585 (df = 10563)	0.585 (df = 10563)	0.559 (df = 10538)
F Statistic	475.836*** (df = 13; 10570)	366.063*** (df = 19; 10564)	347.764*** (df = 20; 10563)	347.968*** (df = 20; 10563)	348.553*** (df = 20; 10563)	192.282*** (df = 45; 10538)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	-0.0208540	0.3844519	0.0251114	1.0736630
AM	-0.0846490	0.3019303	-0.5604160	0.4881357
AP	-0.9516278	0.4866705	-0.9426915	0.1058601
BA	-0.3955186	0.2218959	-0.1254212	0.9231304
CE	0.6646499	0.2109913	0.3531388	1.4016904
DF	0.9361302	1.2988187	-0.3186563	0.7298953
ES	0.8435508	0.5658130	0.1684463	1.2169979
GO	0.4986991	0.5497743	0.0000000	1.0485516
MA	-0.4675860	0.1346222	-0.3109033	0.7376483
MG	1.3353339	0.6508507	0.1509112	1.1994628
MS	0.3210534	0.7441992	-0.1532286	0.8953230
MT	0.2388107	0.5172174	-0.2949633	0.7535883
PA	-0.3776002	0.2584261	-0.4231293	0.6254223
PB	-0.1414952	0.2347318	-0.1842099	0.8643417
PE	-0.0988634	0.4865293	-0.1239196	0.9246320
PI	-1.4280004	0.1842705	0.4569158	1.5054674
PR	0.8942559	0.8531389	-0.4062490	0.6423026
RJ	0.6262878	0.8090525	-0.1756963	0.8728553
RN	-0.2893856	0.2320389	-0.2199912	0.8285605
RO	0.2161385	0.3937825	-0.0620179	0.9865337
RR	-0.6449407	0.5450907	-0.5276960	0.5208556
RS	0.7947666	1.3146422	-0.3043115	0.7442401
SC	0.7493796	1.2226669	-0.2929638	0.7555878
SE	-0.7386320	0.1182638	-0.6910275	0.3575241
SP	1.1236201	0.9521656	-0.3624859	0.6860657
TO	0.0549915	0.3378308	0.1559533	1.2045049

White students bottom SES

Summary satistics of cohorts gains

Regression analysis - Reading

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
LEITURA_5TH_GRADE	0.525***	0.510***	0.509***	0.510***	0.509***	0.396***
	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.171***	-0.083*	-0.079*	-0.083*	-0.082*	-0.064
	(0.039)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.039)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.011	0.074	0.076	0.074	0.073	0.137***
	(0.040)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)
COHORT2013-2017	0.171***	0.259***	0.264***	0.259***	0.260***	0.346***
	(0.042)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.042)
RACA_PRETO	-0.043**	-0.034*	-0.038**	-0.034*	-0.035*	-0.024
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
NSE_AVG	0.451***	0.413***	0.411***	0.411***	0.412***	0.493***
	(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.025)
SEXO_M	-0.074***	-0.063***	-0.063***	-0.063***	-0.063***	-0.079***
	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.004	-0.004	-0.004	-0.003	-0.030***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.117***	-0.116***	-0.117***	-0.116***	-0.065***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.016	0.027	0.020	0.025	-0.010
		(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)
proportion_estadual		-0.017	-0.018	-0.017	-0.018	-0.055***
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.013)
avg_index_violence		-0.052***	-0.054***	-0.052***	-0.053***	-0.047***
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.055***	0.055***	0.055***	0.054***	0.100***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
kl_raca			-0.024**
			(0.008)
kl_NSE				-0.005
				(0.008)
kl_raca_ses					-0.014	-0.001
					(0.008)	(0.008)
UfAC						-0.314**
						(0.098)
UfAL						-0.546***
						(0.066)
UfAM						-0.503***
						(0.069)
UfAP						-0.986***
						(0.114)
UfBA						-0.515***
						(0.057)
UfCE						0.169**
						(0.061)
UfES						-0.216*
						(0.089)
UfMA						-0.529***
						(0.061)
UfMG						0.078
						(0.050)
UfMS						-0.256
						(0.166)
UfMT						-0.573***
						(0.073)
UfPA						-0.671***
						(0.062)
UfPB						-0.526***
						(0.056)
UfPE						-0.297***
						(0.058)
UfPI						-0.403***
						(0.059)
UfPR						-0.533***
						(0.075)
UfRJ						-0.085
						(0.179)
UfRN						-0.473***
						(0.059)
UfRO						-0.385***
						(0.081)
UfRR						-0.717***
						(0.122)
UfRS						-0.394***
						(0.116)
UfSC						-0.582***
						(0.166)
UfSE						-0.516***
						(0.067)
UfSP						-0.237**
						(0.085)
UfTO						-0.379***
						(0.057)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.008	-0.003	-0.002	-0.003	-0.003	-0.012
	(0.020)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.032	-0.031	-0.030	-0.031	-0.031	-0.041*
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.018)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.015	-0.015	-0.014	-0.015	-0.015	-0.028
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.018)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.088*	-0.076*	-0.074*	-0.076*	-0.075*	-0.058
	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.034)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.108**	-0.092*	-0.090*	-0.092*	-0.092*	-0.074*
	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.037)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.158***	-0.132***	-0.134***	-0.132***	-0.133***	-0.129***
	(0.040)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.038)
Constant	0.285***	0.216***	0.212***	0.214***	0.214***	0.496***
	(0.027)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.052)
Observations	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584
R2	0.397	0.414	0.415	0.414	0.414	0.463
Adjusted R2	0.396	0.413	0.414	0.413	0.413	0.461
Residual Std. Error	0.751 (df = 10570)	0.740 (df = 10564)	0.740 (df = 10563)	0.740 (df = 10563)	0.740 (df = 10563)	0.709 (df = 10538)
F Statistic	534.707*** (df = 13; 10570)	393.190*** (df = 19; 10564)	374.279*** (df = 20; 10563)	373.530*** (df = 20; 10563)	373.755*** (df = 20; 10563)	202.142*** (df = 45; 10538)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	-0.3356601	-0.6146304	-0.3137035	-0.1935150
AL	-1.0241536	-1.2918507	-0.5462561	-0.4260676
AM	-0.3932606	-0.5367913	-0.5030204	-0.3828319
AP	-0.8289178	-0.3899679	-0.9858197	-0.8656311
BA	-0.6454734	-0.9101747	-0.5148848	-0.3946962
CE	-0.1472686	-1.1325014	0.1685189	0.2887075
ES	0.4357341	-0.1590035	-0.2163772	-0.0961886
GO	0.1147928	-0.3132522	0.0000000	0.1201886
MA	-1.0238415	-1.2894399	-0.5292307	-0.4090421
MG	0.6158834	-0.5822329	0.0784646	0.1986531
MS	-0.2174583	-0.3021138	-0.2564068	-0.1362182
MT	-0.3056422	-0.2326091	-0.5733823	-0.4531937
PA	-0.6926395	-0.7634557	-0.6711385	-0.5509499
PB	-0.4801237	-1.0118371	-0.5262340	-0.4060455
PE	-0.5509375	-0.9807181	-0.2966930	-0.1765044
PI	-0.5941792	-1.1953120	-0.4026624	-0.2824738
PR	0.0533688	-0.2124664	-0.5328919	-0.4127033
RJ	0.7489043	-0.2873847	-0.0849563	0.0352323
RN	-0.7126208	-0.7444467	-0.4729354	-0.3527469
RO	-0.1649877	-0.3029333	-0.3846535	-0.2644649
RR	-0.7932941	-0.3790137	-0.7173983	-0.5972097
RS	0.0140258	-0.2383568	-0.3936609	-0.2734724
SC	-0.1030596	-0.1104147	-0.5824869	-0.4622983
SE	-0.7406115	-0.9290649	-0.5162469	-0.3960583
SP	0.3797444	-0.2265450	-0.2374220	-0.1172334
TO	-0.2715913	-0.6106258	-0.3788859	-0.2586974

Regression analysis - Math

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE	0.582***	0.553***	0.552***	0.552***	0.552***	0.433***
	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.417***	-0.311***	-0.308***	-0.311***	-0.311***	-0.289***
	(0.039)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.039)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.353***	-0.257***	-0.255***	-0.257***	-0.257***	-0.200***
	(0.041)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.041)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.303***	-0.204***	-0.199***	-0.203***	-0.203***	-0.134**
	(0.042)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.042)
RACA_PRETO	-0.078***	-0.068***	-0.071***	-0.068***	-0.068***	-0.080***
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
NSE_AVG	0.484***	0.443***	0.441***	0.441***	0.442***	0.524***
	(0.024)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.025)
SEXO_M	-0.010	-0.003	-0.003	-0.003	-0.003	-0.012
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.007)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.002	0.002	0.002	0.002	-0.011
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.130***	-0.129***	-0.129***	-0.129***	-0.067***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.046*	-0.038	-0.042*	-0.040*	-0.051*
		(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)
proportion_estadual		-0.025*	-0.026**	-0.025*	-0.025**	-0.075***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.013)
avg_index_violence		-0.061***	-0.063***	-0.061***	-0.062***	-0.054***
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.031***	0.031***	0.031***	0.030***	0.079***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)
kl_raca			-0.019*
			(0.008)
kl_NSE				-0.006
				(0.008)
kl_raca_ses					-0.010	0.005
					(0.008)	(0.008)
UfAC						-0.379***
						(0.099)
UfAL						-0.572***
						(0.066)
UfAM						-0.751***
						(0.070)
UfAP						-1.117***
						(0.116)
UfBA						-0.505***
						(0.058)
UfCE						0.036
						(0.062)
UfES						-0.058
						(0.090)
UfMA						-0.700***
						(0.062)
UfMG						0.114*
						(0.051)
UfMS						-0.164
						(0.168)
UfMT						-0.557***
						(0.073)
UfPA						-0.764***
						(0.063)
UfPB						-0.612***
						(0.057)
UfPE						-0.303***
						(0.058)
UfPI						-0.304***
						(0.060)
UfPR						-0.580***
						(0.076)
UfRJ						0.125
						(0.181)
UfRN						-0.533***
						(0.059)
UfRO						-0.320***
						(0.082)
UfRR						-0.646***
						(0.123)
UfRS						-0.340**
						(0.118)
UfSC						-0.554***
						(0.168)
UfSE						-0.447***
						(0.068)
UfSP						-0.414***
						(0.086)
UfTO						-0.320***
						(0.058)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.032	0.037	0.038	0.037	0.037	0.030
	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.019)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	0.024	0.026	0.027	0.026	0.026	0.020
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.018)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	0.012	0.010	0.011	0.010	0.010	0.002
	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.018)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.142***	-0.125***	-0.124***	-0.125***	-0.125***	-0.105**
	(0.037)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.035)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.268***	-0.247***	-0.246***	-0.247***	-0.248***	-0.230***
	(0.040)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.038)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.273***	-0.238***	-0.239***	-0.238***	-0.238***	-0.233***
	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.038)
Constant	0.496***	0.418***	0.415***	0.416***	0.417***	0.716***
	(0.028)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.053)
Observations	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584	10,584
R2	0.384	0.404	0.404	0.404	0.404	0.460
Adjusted R2	0.384	0.403	0.403	0.402	0.403	0.458
Residual Std. Error	0.764 (df = 10570)	0.753 (df = 10564)	0.752 (df = 10563)	0.753 (df = 10563)	0.752 (df = 10563)	0.717 (df = 10538)
F Statistic	507.462*** (df = 13; 10570)	376.242*** (df = 19; 10564)	357.864*** (df = 20; 10563)	357.446*** (df = 20; 10563)	357.524*** (df = 20; 10563)	199.466*** (df = 45; 10538)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	-0.4942321	-0.6146304	-0.3793514	-0.2914575
AL	-1.0038525	-1.2918507	-0.5722709	-0.4843770
AM	-0.3989552	-0.5367913	-0.7509460	-0.6630522
AP	-0.8982539	-0.3899679	-1.1172912	-1.0293973
BA	-0.6535080	-0.9101747	-0.5049155	-0.4170216
CE	-0.2953903	-1.1325014	0.0357331	0.1236270
ES	0.4562303	-0.1590035	-0.0581189	0.0297750
GO	0.0637735	-0.3132522	0.0000000	0.0878938
MA	-1.0622521	-1.2894399	-0.6996917	-0.6117979
MG	0.6564402	-0.5822329	0.1137386	0.2016325
MS	-0.1251622	-0.3021138	-0.1643204	-0.0764265
MT	-0.2537164	-0.2326091	-0.5566302	-0.4687363
PA	-0.7947890	-0.7634557	-0.7643827	-0.6764888
PB	-0.4889299	-1.0118371	-0.6123528	-0.5244590
PE	-0.5602751	-0.9807181	-0.3034316	-0.2155378
PI	-0.6452161	-1.1953120	-0.3040588	-0.2161650
PR	0.1268941	-0.2124664	-0.5795799	-0.4916860
RJ	0.8672591	-0.2873847	0.1252500	0.2131438
RN	-0.7555815	-0.7444467	-0.5332663	-0.4453724
RO	-0.1037140	-0.3029333	-0.3199632	-0.2320694
RR	-0.7783618	-0.3790137	-0.6457350	-0.5578411
RS	-0.0973893	-0.2383568	-0.3402744	-0.2523806
SC	-0.1266158	-0.1104147	-0.5538768	-0.4659830
SE	-0.7489368	-0.9290649	-0.4466535	-0.3587597
SP	0.4751446	-0.2265450	-0.4144412	-0.3265473
TO	-0.3414279	-0.6106258	-0.3198204	-0.2319266

Black and Brown students top SES

Summary satistics of cohorts gains

Regression analysis - Reading

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
LEITURA_5TH_GRADE	0.402***	0.415***	0.416***	0.415***	0.415***	0.321***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.130***	-0.056	-0.056	-0.055	-0.055	-0.027
	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.034)
COHORT2011-2015	0.095**	0.181***	0.179***	0.182***	0.181***	0.203***
	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.035)
COHORT2013-2017	0.242***	0.335***	0.331***	0.335***	0.335***	0.381***
	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.037)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.035)
RACA_PRETO	0.029	-0.004	-0.00001	-0.005	-0.005	-0.086***
	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)
NSE_AVG	0.142***	0.145***	0.142***	0.141***	0.143***	0.307***
	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)
SEXO_M	-0.121***	-0.092***	-0.092***	-0.092***	-0.092***	-0.084***
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.053***	0.052***	0.052***	0.053***	0.006
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.009)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.018	-0.019	-0.019	-0.018	-0.033*
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.004	-0.004	-0.004	-0.004	-0.004
		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
proportion_estadual		-0.046***	-0.044***	-0.044***	-0.045***	-0.051***
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
avg_index_violence		-0.056***	-0.055***	-0.056***	-0.056***	-0.051***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.116***	0.115***	0.116***	0.116***	0.100***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
kl_raca			0.012*
			(0.006)
kl_NSE				0.007
				(0.006)
kl_raca_ses					0.003	0.011*
					(0.006)	(0.006)
UfAC						-0.049
						(0.151)
UfAM						-0.300**
						(0.112)
UfAP						-1.000***
						(0.146)
UfBA						-0.266***
						(0.076)
UfCE						0.125
						(0.394)
UfDF						-0.574*
						(0.281)
UfES						-0.270***
						(0.044)
UfMA						-0.302
						(0.250)
UfMG						-0.112***
						(0.026)
UfMS						-0.308***
						(0.040)
UfMT						-0.504***
						(0.035)
UfPA						-0.477***
						(0.119)
UfPB						-0.581***
						(0.130)
UfPE						-0.298*
						(0.118)
UfPI						-0.106
						(0.395)
UfPR						-0.619***
						(0.028)
UfRJ						-0.403***
						(0.039)
UfRN						-0.336***
						(0.102)
UfRO						-0.199**
						(0.063)
UfRR						-0.932***
						(0.138)
UfRS						-0.605***
						(0.029)
UfSC						-0.569***
						(0.030)
UfSE						-0.416
						(0.228)
UfSP						-0.542***
						(0.025)
UfTO						-0.220***
						(0.065)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.055*	-0.048*	-0.048*	-0.048*	-0.048*	-0.042*
	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.091***	-0.083***	-0.083***	-0.082***	-0.082***	-0.060**
	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.020)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.082***	-0.068**	-0.068**	-0.067**	-0.068**	-0.047*
	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.020)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.014	0.013	0.012	0.014	0.013	0.002
	(0.036)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.034)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	0.028	0.014	0.014	0.015	0.014	0.033
	(0.037)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.035)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	0.032	0.021	0.021	0.021	0.021	0.048
	(0.038)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.035)
Constant	-0.034	-0.014	-0.011	-0.011	-0.013	0.234***
	(0.024)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.031)
Observations	10,590	10,590	10,590	10,590	10,590	10,590
R2	0.322	0.353	0.353	0.353	0.353	0.412
Adjusted R2	0.321	0.352	0.352	0.352	0.352	0.409
Residual Std. Error	0.595 (df = 10576)	0.582 (df = 10570)	0.582 (df = 10569)	0.582 (df = 10569)	0.582 (df = 10569)	0.555 (df = 10544)
F Statistic	386.785*** (df = 13; 10576)	303.448*** (df = 19; 10570)	288.583*** (df = 20; 10569)	288.355*** (df = 20; 10569)	288.265*** (df = 20; 10569)	163.959*** (df = 45; 10544)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	0.3305428	0.3844519	-0.0494847	0.7400537
AM	0.1084716	0.2930148	-0.2995482	0.4899902
AP	-0.5757749	0.4866705	-0.9997611	-0.2102227
BA	-0.2015648	0.2126305	-0.2663752	0.5231632
CE	1.2920899	0.2109913	0.1252913	0.9148297
DF	0.9446383	1.2988187	-0.5744536	0.2150848
ES	0.5860704	0.5635888	-0.2702887	0.5192497
GO	0.5488686	0.5471234	0.0000000	0.7895384
MA	-0.1852188	0.1346222	-0.3019433	0.4875951
MG	0.9868126	0.6456450	-0.1119526	0.6775858
MS	0.3059620	0.7441992	-0.3079083	0.4816301
MT	0.2120789	0.5101635	-0.5035433	0.2859951
PA	-0.1461265	0.2501077	-0.4768012	0.3127372
PB	0.0095105	0.2260166	-0.5809188	0.2086196
PE	-0.1297941	0.4505022	-0.2984828	0.4910556
PI	-0.2430827	0.1250066	-0.1059393	0.6835991
PR	0.5139905	0.8509213	-0.6194122	0.1701262
RJ	0.4271670	0.8090525	-0.4028414	0.3866970
RN	-0.2418685	0.2219036	-0.3362549	0.4532835
RO	0.2640643	0.3937825	-0.1987206	0.5908178
RR	-0.2437546	0.5173623	-0.9315500	-0.1420116
RS	0.4313278	1.3152931	-0.6053962	0.1841422
SC	0.4227514	1.2242705	-0.5691461	0.2203923
SE	-0.4506752	0.1009848	-0.4158468	0.3736916
SP	0.6123606	0.9513243	-0.5424458	0.2470926
TO	0.2029094	0.3414503	-0.2195284	0.5700100

Regression analysis - Math

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE	0.416***	0.431***	0.431***	0.430***	0.430***	0.345***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.281***	-0.206***	-0.206***	-0.206***	-0.207***	-0.170***
	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.034)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.111**	-0.025	-0.026	-0.026	-0.026	-0.016
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.036)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.071	0.026	0.025	0.026	0.026	0.036
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.036)
RACA_PRETO	-0.010	-0.045**	-0.045**	-0.044**	-0.043*	-0.139***
	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)
NSE_AVG	0.184***	0.187***	0.186***	0.190***	0.192***	0.346***
	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)
SEXO_M	-0.065***	-0.034***	-0.034***	-0.034***	-0.035***	-0.017**
	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.086***	0.086***	0.087***	0.087***	0.022*
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.036**	-0.036**	-0.036**	-0.036**	-0.056***
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.013**	-0.013**	-0.012**	-0.012**	-0.010*
		(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
proportion_estadual		-0.060***	-0.059***	-0.061***	-0.061***	-0.069***
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
avg_index_violence		-0.060***	-0.060***	-0.060***	-0.060***	-0.050***
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.006)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.120***	0.119***	0.120***	0.120***	0.091***
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
kl_raca			0.002
			(0.006)
kl_NSE				-0.006
				(0.006)
kl_raca_ses					-0.009	-0.004
					(0.006)	(0.006)
UfAC						-0.071
						(0.154)
UfAM						-0.540***
						(0.114)
UfAP						-1.109***
						(0.148)
UfBA						-0.154*
						(0.077)
UfCE						-0.042
						(0.401)
UfDF						-0.413
						(0.286)
UfES						-0.070
						(0.045)
UfMA						-0.428
						(0.255)
UfMG						0.030
						(0.026)
UfMS						-0.312***
						(0.040)
UfMT						-0.450***
						(0.036)
UfPA						-0.587***
						(0.121)
UfPB						-0.599***
						(0.132)
UfPE						-0.260*
						(0.120)
UfPI						-0.002
						(0.401)
UfPR						-0.583***
						(0.028)
UfRJ						-0.315***
						(0.040)
UfRN						-0.287**
						(0.103)
UfRO						-0.087
						(0.064)
UfRR						-0.846***
						(0.141)
UfRS						-0.524***
						(0.030)
UfSC						-0.482***
						(0.031)
UfSE						-0.073
						(0.232)
UfSP						-0.556***
						(0.026)
UfTO						-0.118
						(0.066)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.016	-0.007	-0.007	-0.007	-0.007	-0.011
	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.021)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.058**	-0.051*	-0.051*	-0.052*	-0.052*	-0.035
	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.069**	-0.057*	-0.057*	-0.057**	-0.058**	-0.034
	(0.023)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.001	0.001	0.0005	-0.00003	-0.0002	-0.021
	(0.038)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.034)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.017	-0.029	-0.030	-0.030	-0.030	-0.009
	(0.038)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.035)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.049	-0.060	-0.060	-0.060	-0.060	-0.022
	(0.039)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.036)
Constant	0.119***	0.149***	0.149***	0.146***	0.146***	0.327***
	(0.025)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.032)
Observations	10,590	10,590	10,590	10,590	10,590	10,590
R2	0.236	0.281	0.281	0.281	0.281	0.363
Adjusted R2	0.235	0.280	0.280	0.280	0.280	0.360
Residual Std. Error	0.618 (df = 10576)	0.600 (df = 10570)	0.600 (df = 10569)	0.600 (df = 10569)	0.600 (df = 10569)	0.565 (df = 10544)
F Statistic	251.864*** (df = 13; 10576)	217.726*** (df = 19; 10570)	206.824*** (df = 20; 10569)	206.881*** (df = 20; 10569)	206.988*** (df = 20; 10569)	133.626*** (df = 45; 10544)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	0.0844324	0.3844519	-0.0710758	0.6753005
AM	0.0137145	0.2930148	-0.5402154	0.2061609
AP	-0.7063253	0.4866705	-1.1091936	-0.3628174
BA	-0.3367820	0.2126305	-0.1543031	0.5920732
CE	0.9430878	0.2109913	-0.0422695	0.7041067
DF	0.8184880	1.2988187	-0.4134335	0.3329427
ES	0.5110524	0.5635888	-0.0700234	0.6763529
GO	0.4293759	0.5471234	0.0000000	0.7463762
MA	-0.4005624	0.1346222	-0.4279530	0.3184233
MG	0.9941080	0.6456450	0.0297167	0.7760929
MS	0.2196475	0.7441992	-0.3122521	0.4341241
MT	0.0968253	0.5101635	-0.4499898	0.2963864
PA	-0.3158076	0.2501077	-0.5867928	0.1595835
PB	-0.1044008	0.2260166	-0.5985828	0.1477935
PE	-0.2040489	0.4505022	-0.2596231	0.4867531
PI	-0.3479662	0.1250066	-0.0016834	0.7446928
PR	0.6082963	0.8509213	-0.5833673	0.1630089
RJ	0.3270964	0.8090525	-0.3151255	0.4312507
RN	-0.2381046	0.2219036	-0.2874770	0.4588992
RO	0.2256035	0.3937825	-0.0868911	0.6594851
RR	-0.4284664	0.5173623	-0.8463519	-0.0999757
RS	0.3919495	1.3152931	-0.5240343	0.2223420
SC	0.3739840	1.2242705	-0.4824952	0.2638811
SE	-0.5143748	0.1009848	-0.0728738	0.6735024
SP	0.7306062	0.9513243	-0.5556168	0.1907595
TO	0.0581907	0.3414503	-0.1182626	0.6281136

Black and Brown students bottom SES

Summary satistics of cohorts gains

Regression analysis - Reading

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
LEITURA_5TH_GRADE	0.565***	0.571***	0.571***	0.571***	0.570***	0.448***
	(0.008)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.159***	-0.088**	-0.087**	-0.088**	-0.087**	-0.068*
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.027)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.002	0.062*	0.063*	0.062*	0.060*	0.113***
	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.028)
COHORT2013-2017	0.147***	0.211***	0.213***	0.212***	0.213***	0.291***
	(0.030)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.030)
RACA_PRETO	-0.052***	-0.047***	-0.048***	-0.047***	-0.047***	-0.050***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.009)
NSE_AVG	0.327***	0.328***	0.327***	0.322***	0.326***	0.398***
	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)
SEXO_M	-0.080***	-0.065***	-0.065***	-0.065***	-0.064***	-0.074***
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.0004	0.001	0.001	0.001	-0.022***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.088***	-0.088***	-0.087***	-0.086***	-0.043***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.021	0.025	0.031*	0.039**	0.015
		(0.013)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
proportion_estadual		-0.045***	-0.045***	-0.045***	-0.046***	-0.066***
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.009)
avg_index_violence		-0.056***	-0.056***	-0.057***	-0.057***	-0.054***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.061***	0.061***	0.061***	0.061***	0.091***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
kl_raca			-0.008
			(0.005)
kl_NSE				-0.014*
				(0.006)
kl_raca_ses					-0.027***	-0.016**
					(0.006)	(0.005)
UfAC						-0.079
						(0.067)
UfAL						-0.408***
						(0.045)
UfAM						-0.335***
						(0.047)
UfAP						-0.753***
						(0.078)
UfBA						-0.361***
						(0.039)
UfCE						0.171***
						(0.042)
UfES						-0.214***
						(0.061)
UfMA						-0.449***
						(0.042)
UfMG						0.055
						(0.034)
UfMS						-0.215
						(0.114)
UfMT						-0.477***
						(0.050)
UfPA						-0.561***
						(0.043)
UfPB						-0.441***
						(0.039)
UfPE						-0.239***
						(0.040)
UfPI						-0.296***
						(0.041)
UfPR						-0.512***
						(0.052)
UfRJ						-0.213
						(0.123)
UfRN						-0.346***
						(0.041)
UfRO						-0.115*
						(0.056)
UfRR						-0.625***
						(0.084)
UfRS						-0.392***
						(0.082)
UfSC						-0.694***
						(0.117)
UfSE						-0.363***
						(0.046)
UfSP						-0.385***
						(0.059)
UfTO						-0.273***
						(0.039)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.011	-0.005	-0.005	-0.005	-0.005	-0.008
	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.006	-0.003	-0.002	-0.003	-0.002	-0.005
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	0.0004	0.004	0.005	0.004	0.004	-0.004
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.012)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.098***	-0.091***	-0.090***	-0.091***	-0.089***	-0.078**
	(0.026)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.024)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.165***	-0.150***	-0.150***	-0.150***	-0.152***	-0.144***
	(0.028)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.026)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.172***	-0.153***	-0.154***	-0.153***	-0.154***	-0.158***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.026)
Constant	0.076***	0.029	0.027	0.025	0.026	0.237***
	(0.019)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.036)
Observations	10,591	10,591	10,591	10,591	10,591	10,591
R2	0.492	0.513	0.513	0.513	0.514	0.571
Adjusted R2	0.491	0.512	0.512	0.513	0.513	0.569
Residual Std. Error	0.530 (df = 10577)	0.519 (df = 10571)	0.519 (df = 10570)	0.519 (df = 10570)	0.518 (df = 10570)	0.487 (df = 10545)
F Statistic	786.925*** (df = 13; 10577)	586.596*** (df = 19; 10571)	557.430*** (df = 20; 10570)	557.824*** (df = 20; 10570)	559.497*** (df = 20; 10570)	312.300*** (df = 45; 10545)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	-0.2257611	-0.6146304	-0.0790942	-0.1418960
AL	-0.9683512	-1.2918507	-0.4079684	-0.4707702
AM	-0.2319434	-0.5395626	-0.3345457	-0.3973475
AP	-0.8265433	-0.3904196	-0.7531204	-0.8159222
BA	-0.5669983	-0.9125231	-0.3614411	-0.4242429
CE	-0.0982811	-1.1344760	0.1713620	0.1085602
ES	0.1883641	-0.1615995	-0.2138642	-0.2766660
GO	0.1111568	-0.3220476	0.0000000	-0.0628018
MA	-0.8946968	-1.2901614	-0.4489357	-0.5117375
MG	0.4402828	-0.5927659	0.0552185	-0.0075833
MS	-0.1378601	-0.3021138	-0.2151978	-0.2779996
MT	-0.3036093	-0.2415547	-0.4774262	-0.5402280
PA	-0.5893162	-0.7641902	-0.5607521	-0.6235539
PB	-0.5021032	-1.0135366	-0.4406573	-0.5034591
PE	-0.5628388	-0.9836675	-0.2388165	-0.3016183
PI	-0.5806496	-1.1925294	-0.2957325	-0.3585343
PR	-0.1065328	-0.2201992	-0.5118711	-0.5746729
RJ	0.3966784	-0.2873847	-0.2132926	-0.2760944
RN	-0.7551683	-0.7469815	-0.3463186	-0.4091204
RO	-0.1442836	-0.3029333	-0.1154684	-0.1782702
RR	-0.5610539	-0.4113329	-0.6254294	-0.6882312
RS	-0.2019129	-0.2437429	-0.3918644	-0.4546662
SC	-0.2053401	-0.1199547	-0.6940314	-0.7568332
SE	-0.6678974	-0.9371519	-0.3632236	-0.4260254
SP	0.0436698	-0.2325963	-0.3845222	-0.4473240
TO	-0.3170372	-0.6161421	-0.2732325	-0.3360343

Regression analysis - Math

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE	0.598***	0.594***	0.593***	0.593***	0.592***	0.477***
	(0.008)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.365***	-0.288***	-0.286***	-0.288***	-0.287***	-0.263***
	(0.029)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.028)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.279***	-0.212***	-0.210***	-0.212***	-0.213***	-0.164***
	(0.030)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.029)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.290***	-0.217***	-0.214***	-0.216***	-0.215***	-0.151***
	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.031)
RACA_PRETO	-0.087***	-0.080***	-0.082***	-0.080***	-0.080***	-0.100***
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)
NSE_AVG	0.368***	0.362***	0.360***	0.355***	0.359***	0.432***
	(0.017)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)
SEXO_M	-0.012*	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.003	-0.001
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.0003	0.00000	0.00004	0.001	-0.012*
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.106***	-0.106***	-0.105***	-0.104***	-0.050***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.034*	-0.028	-0.024	-0.015	-0.025
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.014)
proportion_estadual		-0.053***	-0.054***	-0.054***	-0.054***	-0.078***
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.009)
avg_index_violence		-0.055***	-0.056***	-0.056***	-0.057***	-0.053***
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.006)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.053***	0.054***	0.053***	0.053***	0.088***
		(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)
kl_raca			-0.014*
			(0.006)
kl_NSE				-0.015*
				(0.006)
kl_raca_ses					-0.028***	-0.015*
					(0.006)	(0.006)
UfAC						-0.052
						(0.071)
UfAL						-0.350***
						(0.047)
UfAM						-0.495***
						(0.050)
UfAP						-0.825***
						(0.082)
UfBA						-0.294***
						(0.041)
UfCE						0.134**
						(0.044)
UfES						-0.107
						(0.064)
UfMA						-0.558***
						(0.044)
UfMG						0.119***
						(0.036)
UfMS						-0.174
						(0.120)
UfMT						-0.455***
						(0.053)
UfPA						-0.618***
						(0.045)
UfPB						-0.441***
						(0.041)
UfPE						-0.179***
						(0.042)
UfPI						-0.195***
						(0.043)
UfPR						-0.511***
						(0.054)
UfRJ						0.115
						(0.129)
UfRN						-0.355***
						(0.043)
UfRO						-0.058
						(0.059)
UfRR						-0.565***
						(0.088)
UfRS						-0.250**
						(0.086)
UfSC						-0.467***
						(0.122)
UfSE						-0.215***
						(0.048)
UfSP						-0.529***
						(0.062)
UfTO						-0.215***
						(0.041)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.012	0.018	0.019	0.018	0.018	0.013
	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.013)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	0.032*	0.034*	0.035*	0.034*	0.035*	0.031*
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.013)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	0.025	0.026	0.026	0.026	0.026	0.018
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.013)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.150***	-0.138***	-0.138***	-0.138***	-0.137***	-0.119***
	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.025)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.270***	-0.252***	-0.251***	-0.252***	-0.254***	-0.242***
	(0.030)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.027)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.247***	-0.221***	-0.222***	-0.221***	-0.222***	-0.222***
	(0.030)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.028)
Constant	0.291***	0.239***	0.237***	0.235***	0.236***	0.423***
	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.038)
Observations	10,591	10,591	10,591	10,591	10,591	10,591
R2	0.445	0.471	0.471	0.471	0.472	0.542
Adjusted R2	0.444	0.470	0.470	0.470	0.471	0.540
Residual Std. Error	0.562 (df = 10577)	0.548 (df = 10571)	0.548 (df = 10570)	0.548 (df = 10570)	0.548 (df = 10570)	0.511 (df = 10545)
F Statistic	652.491*** (df = 13; 10577)	495.677*** (df = 19; 10571)	471.390*** (df = 20; 10570)	471.424*** (df = 20; 10570)	472.891*** (df = 20; 10570)	276.882*** (df = 45; 10545)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	-0.3935294	-0.6146304	-0.0520646	-0.1738798
AL	-0.9460127	-1.2918507	-0.3502961	-0.4721113
AM	-0.2396193	-0.5395626	-0.4951086	-0.6169238
AP	-0.8623488	-0.3904196	-0.8249245	-0.9467398
BA	-0.5821545	-0.9125231	-0.2935287	-0.4153439
CE	-0.2423021	-1.1344760	0.1339234	0.0121082
ES	0.2268303	-0.1615995	-0.1074579	-0.2292731
GO	0.0384044	-0.3220476	0.0000000	-0.1218152
MA	-0.9344628	-1.2901614	-0.5584430	-0.6802583
MG	0.4842652	-0.5927659	0.1191040	-0.0027112
MS	-0.1079636	-0.3021138	-0.1737511	-0.2955664
MT	-0.3133945	-0.2415547	-0.4550812	-0.5768964
PA	-0.6687349	-0.7641902	-0.6177119	-0.7395271
PB	-0.4978699	-1.0135366	-0.4409876	-0.5628028
PE	-0.5343751	-0.9836675	-0.1786595	-0.3004748
PI	-0.6149486	-1.1925294	-0.1948582	-0.3166735
PR	-0.0415728	-0.2201992	-0.5112083	-0.6330235
RJ	0.4646046	-0.2873847	0.1153910	-0.0064243
RN	-0.7614481	-0.7469815	-0.3551731	-0.4769883
RO	-0.1045052	-0.3029333	-0.0579410	-0.1797562
RR	-0.6618363	-0.4113329	-0.5650365	-0.6868518
RS	-0.3892431	-0.2437429	-0.2504393	-0.3722545
SC	-0.2483060	-0.1199547	-0.4673104	-0.5891256
SE	-0.6358401	-0.9371519	-0.2148018	-0.3366170
SP	0.1743940	-0.2325963	-0.5287872	-0.6506024
TO	-0.3716525	-0.6161421	-0.2147578	-0.3365731

Black students top SES

Summary satistics of cohorts gains

Regression analysis - Reading

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
LEITURA_5TH_GRADE	0.233***	0.234***	0.234***	0.234***	0.234***	0.176***
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.122*	-0.060	-0.059	-0.059	-0.060	-0.057
	(0.058)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.058)
COHORT2011-2015	0.166**	0.230***	0.231***	0.231***	0.230***	0.231***
	(0.060)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.060)
COHORT2013-2017	0.241***	0.331***	0.338***	0.331***	0.331***	0.335***
	(0.060)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.060)
RACA_PRETO	0.071*	0.041	0.038	0.041	0.041	-0.069*
	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.031)
NSE_AVG	0.099*	0.108*	0.114*	0.107*	0.109*	0.332***
	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
SEXO_M	-0.121***	-0.100***	-0.101***	-0.100***	-0.100***	-0.082***
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.070***	0.071***	0.069***	0.070***	-0.006
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.016)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.082***	-0.081***	-0.082***	-0.082***	-0.039
		(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.023)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.006	-0.005	-0.007	-0.006	-0.006
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
proportion_estadual		-0.033**	-0.037**	-0.032*	-0.033**	-0.050***
		(0.012)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)
avg_index_violence		-0.043***	-0.044***	-0.043***	-0.043***	-0.037***
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.109***	0.110***	0.109***	0.109***	0.110***
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.016)
kl_raca			-0.022*
			(0.011)
kl_NSE				0.003
				(0.011)
kl_raca_ses					-0.002	0.012
					(0.010)	(0.010)
UfAC						0.116
						(0.250)
UfAM						-0.494**
						(0.185)
UfAP						-0.987***
						(0.249)
UfBA						-0.415**
						(0.130)
UfCE						0.220
						(0.584)
UfDF						-0.517
						(0.510)
UfES						-0.169*
						(0.079)
UfMA						-0.724
						(0.385)
UfMG						-0.075
						(0.046)
UfMS						-0.307***
						(0.071)
UfMT						-0.644***
						(0.063)
UfPA						-0.344
						(0.197)
UfPB						-0.800***
						(0.236)
UfPE						-0.477*
						(0.192)
UfPI						0.623
						(0.586)
UfPR						-0.709***
						(0.050)
UfRJ						-0.454***
						(0.071)
UfRN						-0.521**
						(0.174)
UfRO						-0.275*
						(0.111)
UfRR						-0.858***
						(0.238)
UfRS						-0.789***
						(0.052)
UfSC						-0.831***
						(0.054)
UfSE						-0.987*
						(0.415)
UfSP						-0.615***
						(0.046)
UfTO						-0.150
						(0.111)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.009	0.017	0.018	0.017	0.017	0.026
	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.039)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.086*	-0.074	-0.074	-0.074	-0.074	-0.046
	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.037)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.083*	-0.070	-0.073	-0.070	-0.070	-0.038
	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.038)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.036	0.036	0.037	0.036	0.036	0.034
	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.060)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	0.045	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.048
	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.062)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	0.141*	0.119	0.116	0.120	0.119	0.145*
	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.062)
Constant	-0.200***	-0.210***	-0.216***	-0.209***	-0.210***	0.072
	(0.041)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.054)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777
R2	0.103	0.114	0.114	0.114	0.114	0.162
Adjusted R2	0.102	0.112	0.113	0.112	0.112	0.159
Residual Std. Error	1.042 (df = 10763)	1.036 (df = 10757)	1.036 (df = 10756)	1.036 (df = 10756)	1.036 (df = 10756)	1.009 (df = 10731)
F Statistic	94.911*** (df = 13; 10763)	72.824*** (df = 19; 10757)	69.412*** (df = 20; 10756)	69.180*** (df = 20; 10756)	69.178*** (df = 20; 10756)	46.255*** (df = 45; 10731)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	0.0105243	0.3314440	0.1163831	0.6010618
AM	-0.3706828	0.2446370	-0.4939078	-0.0092292
AP	-0.9345947	0.3843673	-0.9874101	-0.5027315
BA	-0.4254939	0.1917336	-0.4145225	0.0701561
CE	0.5873788	0.1533285	0.2204280	0.7051066
DF	0.6260477	1.2988187	-0.5165120	-0.0318334
ES	0.1186630	0.5342742	-0.1689965	0.3156822
GO	0.0558734	0.5251885	0.0000000	0.4846786
MA	-0.6964366	0.1076640	-0.7242822	-0.2396036
MG	0.4682297	0.6277456	-0.0749784	0.4097002
MS	-0.0989113	0.7384656	-0.3069846	0.1776940
MT	-0.2605842	0.4875180	-0.6441892	-0.1595106
PA	-0.4543851	0.2119443	-0.3438793	0.1407993
PB	-0.5559110	0.2119632	-0.7999684	-0.3152898
PE	-0.5400159	0.3679034	-0.4766147	0.0080639
PI	-0.2323266	0.0931729	0.6226692	1.1073478
PR	-0.0449602	0.8287048	-0.7087598	-0.2240811
RJ	0.1636965	0.8041598	-0.4536531	0.0310256
RN	-0.6161607	0.1923995	-0.5210009	-0.0363222
RO	-0.1977737	0.3667073	-0.2746007	0.2100780
RR	-0.6298832	0.4678585	-0.8576558	-0.3729771
RS	-0.0834660	1.2603711	-0.7888071	-0.3041285
SC	-0.1260907	1.1844595	-0.8312200	-0.3465414
SE	-0.8078908	0.1009848	-0.9868909	-0.5022123
SP	0.0885452	0.9414186	-0.6150656	-0.1303869
TO	-0.2787255	0.2876764	-0.1500887	0.3345900

Regression analysis - Math

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE	0.227***	0.228***	0.226***	0.228***	0.228***	0.172***
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.200***	-0.145*	-0.144*	-0.146*	-0.146*	-0.140*
	(0.056)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.056)
COHORT2011-2015	0.019	0.074	0.077	0.073	0.072	0.062
	(0.058)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.058)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.080	-0.001	0.015	-0.001	-0.0004	-0.009
	(0.058)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.059)
RACA_PRETO	0.035	0.006	-0.0002	0.007	0.007	-0.104***
	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.030)
NSE_AVG	0.204***	0.213***	0.225***	0.218***	0.220***	0.439***
	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.045)
SEXO_M	-0.075***	-0.053***	-0.056***	-0.053***	-0.054***	-0.032**
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.097***	0.100***	0.099***	0.099***	0.025
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.016)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.131***	-0.128***	-0.130***	-0.131***	-0.096***
		(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.020)	(0.022)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.018*	-0.015*	-0.017*	-0.017*	-0.016*
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
proportion_estadual		-0.043***	-0.052***	-0.045***	-0.045***	-0.072***
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)
avg_index_violence		-0.034**	-0.037***	-0.034**	-0.034**	-0.028*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.108***	0.108***	0.108***	0.108***	0.106***
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)
kl_raca			-0.045***
			(0.010)
kl_NSE				-0.009
				(0.011)
kl_raca_ses					-0.012	-0.0003
					(0.010)	(0.010)
UfAC						0.114
						(0.242)
UfAM						-0.576**
						(0.179)
UfAP						-0.972***
						(0.241)
UfBA						-0.321*
						(0.126)
UfCE						0.137
						(0.566)
UfDF						-0.370
						(0.494)
UfES						-0.134
						(0.076)
UfMA						-0.421
						(0.373)
UfMG						0.022
						(0.044)
UfMS						-0.294***
						(0.069)
UfMT						-0.566***
						(0.061)
UfPA						-0.513**
						(0.191)
UfPB						-0.663**
						(0.228)
UfPE						-0.256
						(0.186)
UfPI						0.164
						(0.567)
UfPR						-0.606***
						(0.048)
UfRJ						-0.429***
						(0.069)
UfRN						-0.496**
						(0.168)
UfRO						-0.037
						(0.108)
UfRR						-0.687**
						(0.230)
UfRS						-0.750***
						(0.050)
UfSC						-0.712***
						(0.052)
UfSE						-0.160
						(0.401)
UfSP						-0.596***
						(0.044)
UfTO						-0.205
						(0.108)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.007	0.014	0.015	0.014	0.014	0.019
	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.038)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.084*	-0.075*	-0.075*	-0.075*	-0.075*	-0.048
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.036)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.074	-0.064	-0.070	-0.065	-0.065	-0.029
	(0.038)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.025	-0.027	-0.026	-0.028	-0.028	-0.028
	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.058)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.027	-0.033	-0.033	-0.033	-0.033	-0.017
	(0.062)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.060)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	0.045	0.020	0.013	0.019	0.018	0.049
	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.060)
Constant	-0.084*	-0.096*	-0.109*	-0.099*	-0.098*	0.128*
	(0.040)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.053)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777
R2	0.063	0.079	0.081	0.079	0.080	0.133
Adjusted R2	0.062	0.078	0.079	0.078	0.078	0.129
Residual Std. Error	1.014 (df = 10763)	1.006 (df = 10757)	1.005 (df = 10756)	1.006 (df = 10756)	1.005 (df = 10756)	0.977 (df = 10731)
F Statistic	55.703*** (df = 13; 10763)	48.813*** (df = 19; 10757)	47.421*** (df = 20; 10756)	46.404*** (df = 20; 10756)	46.450*** (df = 20; 10756)	36.593*** (df = 45; 10731)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	-0.2004511	0.3314440	0.1135604	0.5748818
AM	-0.3534495	0.2446370	-0.5759366	-0.1146153
AP	-1.0008892	0.3843673	-0.9719925	-0.5106712
BA	-0.5704536	0.1917336	-0.3210333	0.1402881
CE	0.1853613	0.1533285	0.1371158	0.5984371
DF	0.5442489	1.2988187	-0.3698321	0.0914893
ES	0.0707084	0.5342742	-0.1337701	0.3275512
GO	-0.0133153	0.5251885	0.0000000	0.4613214
MA	-0.8515725	0.1076640	-0.4207200	0.0406013
MG	0.4678182	0.6277456	0.0222326	0.4835539
MS	-0.1080836	0.7384656	-0.2944286	0.1668927
MT	-0.3335927	0.4875180	-0.5658244	-0.1045030
PA	-0.5771378	0.2119443	-0.5126180	-0.0512966
PB	-0.5598678	0.2119632	-0.6633576	-0.2020363
PE	-0.5307357	0.3679034	-0.2558180	0.2055033
PI	-0.2650610	0.0931729	0.1640035	0.6253248
PR	0.0952878	0.8287048	-0.6062321	-0.1449108
RJ	0.0428729	0.8041598	-0.4293339	0.0319874
RN	-0.6098708	0.1923995	-0.4962477	-0.0349263
RO	-0.1567081	0.3667073	-0.0371269	0.4241945
RR	-0.7644208	0.4678585	-0.6870721	-0.2257508
RS	-0.1070312	1.2603711	-0.7504742	-0.2891529
SC	-0.1354142	1.1844595	-0.7123290	-0.2510077
SE	-0.7256321	0.1009848	-0.1595580	0.3017633
SP	0.2135788	0.9414186	-0.5964622	-0.1351408
TO	-0.3249978	0.2876764	-0.2051676	0.2561537

Black students bottom SES

Summary satistics of cohorts gains

Regression analysis - Reading

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
LEITURA_5TH_GRADE	0.305***	0.284***	0.284***	0.284***	0.283***	0.217***
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.152**	-0.040	-0.037	-0.039	-0.039	-0.048
	(0.048)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.048)
COHORT2011-2015	0.059	0.166***	0.168***	0.165**	0.163**	0.195***
	(0.049)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)
COHORT2013-2017	0.306***	0.402***	0.406***	0.402***	0.403***	0.416***
	(0.051)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)
RACA_PRETO	-0.015	-0.007	-0.009	-0.008	-0.008	-0.015
	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.017)
NSE_AVG	0.382***	0.315***	0.312***	0.307***	0.312***	0.352***
	(0.028)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.030)
SEXO_M	-0.086***	-0.082***	-0.082***	-0.082***	-0.081***	-0.094***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.017	-0.017	-0.017	-0.016	-0.043***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.109***	-0.108***	-0.107***	-0.106***	-0.068***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.030	0.040	0.045	0.050*	0.025
		(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)
proportion_estadual		0.017	0.016	0.016	0.016	-0.045**
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.015)
avg_index_violence		-0.066***	-0.067***	-0.067***	-0.067***	-0.058***
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.030**	0.030**	0.030**	0.030**	0.076***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)
kl_raca			-0.019*
			(0.010)
kl_NSE				-0.021*
				(0.010)
kl_raca_ses					-0.031**	-0.021*
					(0.010)	(0.010)
UfAC						-0.052
						(0.120)
UfAL						-0.589***
						(0.080)
UfAM						-0.457***
						(0.085)
UfAP						-0.735***
						(0.140)
UfBA						-0.400***
						(0.071)
UfCE						0.095
						(0.075)
UfES						-0.127
						(0.116)
UfMA						-0.486***
						(0.075)
UfMG						0.135*
						(0.062)
UfMS						-0.132
						(0.199)
UfMT						-0.603***
						(0.092)
UfPA						-0.487***
						(0.076)
UfPB						-0.551***
						(0.069)
UfPE						-0.389***
						(0.071)
UfPI						-0.344***
						(0.072)
UfPR						-0.554***
						(0.091)
UfRJ						-0.252
						(0.232)
UfRN						-0.508***
						(0.072)
UfRO						-0.178
						(0.102)
UfRR						-0.465**
						(0.151)
UfRS						-0.378**
						(0.117)
UfSC						-0.590**
						(0.191)
UfSE						-0.475***
						(0.082)
UfSP						-0.410***
						(0.105)
UfTO						-0.268***
						(0.071)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.023	-0.013	-0.012	-0.013	-0.013	-0.018
	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.024	-0.018	-0.017	-0.018	-0.017	-0.019
	(0.023)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.019	-0.014	-0.014	-0.014	-0.013	-0.010
	(0.023)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.103*	-0.088*	-0.087*	-0.087*	-0.086*	-0.092*
	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.042)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.166***	-0.153***	-0.152**	-0.153***	-0.155***	-0.142**
	(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	0.011	0.021	0.020	0.020	0.018	-0.011
	(0.048)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)
Constant	-0.129***	-0.224***	-0.229***	-0.229***	-0.227***	-0.001
	(0.034)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.066)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,723
R2	0.165	0.182	0.182	0.182	0.183	0.230
Adjusted R2	0.164	0.180	0.181	0.181	0.181	0.227
Residual Std. Error	0.900 (df = 10763)	0.891 (df = 10757)	0.891 (df = 10756)	0.891 (df = 10756)	0.891 (df = 10756)	0.868 (df = 10677)
F Statistic	163.090*** (df = 13; 10763)	125.891*** (df = 19; 10757)	119.829*** (df = 20; 10756)	119.876*** (df = 20; 10756)	120.173*** (df = 20; 10756)	70.807*** (df = 45; 10677)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	-0.4243227	-0.6479553	-0.0522542	-0.3095741
AL	-1.2339369	-1.2970948	-0.5885881	-0.8459079
AM	-0.6212495	-0.5597909	-0.4574124	-0.7147322
AP	-1.0517807	-0.4647962	-0.7346899	-0.9920097
BA	-0.7977689	-0.9205402	-0.4002466	-0.6575664
CE	-0.5926289	-1.1474336	0.0954271	-0.1618927
ES	-0.3120532	-0.2016232	-0.1266274	-0.3839473
GO	-0.3434635	-0.4168719	0.0000000	-0.2573198
MA	-1.2011036	-1.2978485	-0.4858210	-0.7431408
MG	-0.0415444	-0.6201116	0.1353724	-0.1219474
MS	-0.7222130	-0.3179315	-0.1323494	-0.3896692
MT	-0.6519531	-0.3110968	-0.6028209	-0.8601408
PA	-0.8491771	-0.7765116	-0.4872512	-0.7445710
PB	-0.8540615	-1.0369978	-0.5506305	-0.8079503
PE	-0.9127658	-0.9946504	-0.3894153	-0.6467352
PI	-0.8612423	-1.2317311	-0.3444811	-0.6018009
PR	-0.4735530	-0.3036487	-0.5543025	-0.8116223
RJ	-0.1354199	-0.3298549	-0.2519875	-0.5093073
RN	-1.0985052	-0.7841526	-0.5076869	-0.7650068
RO	-0.5149233	-0.3329469	-0.1778751	-0.4351949
RR	-0.9781329	-0.4638572	-0.4652377	-0.7225575
RS	-0.4938367	-0.3293730	-0.3777853	-0.6351052
SC	-0.7284083	-0.1803171	-0.5903232	-0.8476430
SE	-0.8792394	-0.9345410	-0.4752442	-0.7325641
SP	-0.3205511	-0.2926889	-0.4097550	-0.6670748
TO	-0.7174278	-0.6468465	-0.2681526	-0.5254724

Regression analysis - Math

Reading

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE	0.355***	0.323***	0.321***	0.322***	0.322***	0.257***
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
COHORT2009-2013	-0.294***	-0.167***	-0.163***	-0.167***	-0.166***	-0.181***
	(0.047)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.047)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.160***	-0.043	-0.040	-0.044	-0.045	-0.025
	(0.048)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.154**	-0.046	-0.038	-0.045	-0.044	-0.042
	(0.050)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)
RACA_PRETO	-0.071***	-0.060***	-0.064***	-0.060***	-0.061***	-0.079***
	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)
NSE_AVG	0.432***	0.350***	0.344***	0.341***	0.347***	0.404***
	(0.027)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.029)
SEXO_M	-0.027**	-0.025**	-0.024**	-0.024**	-0.024**	-0.030***
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.012	-0.011	-0.011	-0.011	-0.024*
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.131***	-0.129***	-0.129***	-0.129***	-0.075***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)
NUM_SCHOOLS		-0.035	-0.017	-0.020	-0.018	-0.026
		(0.022)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.024)
proportion_estadual		0.024*	0.023*	0.023*	0.023*	-0.036*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.015)
avg_index_violence		-0.069***	-0.071***	-0.071***	-0.071***	-0.061***
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.010)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.023*	0.023*	0.023*	0.022*	0.070***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)
kl_raca			-0.037***
			(0.009)
kl_NSE				-0.022*
				(0.009)
kl_raca_ses					-0.026**	-0.012
					(0.010)	(0.010)
UfAC						-0.052
						(0.117)
UfAL						-0.471***
						(0.078)
UfAM						-0.561***
						(0.083)
UfAP						-0.770***
						(0.136)
UfBA						-0.336***
						(0.069)
UfCE						0.083
						(0.073)
UfES						-0.095
						(0.113)
UfMA						-0.609***
						(0.073)
UfMG						0.162**
						(0.061)
UfMS						-0.116
						(0.194)
UfMT						-0.599***
						(0.089)
UfPA						-0.570***
						(0.074)
UfPB						-0.487***
						(0.068)
UfPE						-0.312***
						(0.069)
UfPI						-0.226**
						(0.070)
UfPR						-0.448***
						(0.089)
UfRJ						0.004
						(0.226)
UfRN						-0.509***
						(0.070)
UfRO						-0.076
						(0.099)
UfRR						-0.540***
						(0.147)
UfRS						-0.322**
						(0.114)
UfSC						-0.714***
						(0.186)
UfSE						-0.291***
						(0.079)
UfSP						-0.427***
						(0.102)
UfTO						-0.214**
						(0.069)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.004	0.014	0.016	0.014	0.014	0.006
	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.022)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	0.001	0.006	0.008	0.007	0.007	0.005
	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.003	0.0003	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001
	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.021)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.125**	-0.105*	-0.103*	-0.105*	-0.104*	-0.109**
	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.041)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.274***	-0.258***	-0.256***	-0.258***	-0.260***	-0.249***
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.121*	-0.105*	-0.107*	-0.106*	-0.107*	-0.132**
	(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
Constant	0.138***	0.025	0.015	0.020	0.022	0.234***
	(0.033)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.065)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,723
R2	0.165	0.189	0.190	0.189	0.190	0.241
Adjusted R2	0.164	0.188	0.189	0.188	0.188	0.238
Residual Std. Error	0.883 (df = 10763)	0.870 (df = 10757)	0.870 (df = 10756)	0.870 (df = 10756)	0.870 (df = 10756)	0.845 (df = 10677)
F Statistic	163.204*** (df = 13; 10763)	132.001*** (df = 19; 10757)	126.377*** (df = 20; 10756)	125.716*** (df = 20; 10756)	125.839*** (df = 20; 10756)	75.295*** (df = 45; 10677)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Predicted 9th grade gain (state coefficient)	Value-added
AC	-0.6083462	-0.6479553	-0.0519608	-0.3149244
AL	-1.1922816	-1.2970948	-0.4705862	-0.7335498
AM	-0.5397728	-0.5597909	-0.5608838	-0.8238474
AP	-1.0902857	-0.4647962	-0.7702533	-1.0332169
BA	-0.7981528	-0.9205402	-0.3356751	-0.5986387
CE	-0.6543651	-1.1474336	0.0833171	-0.1796465
ES	-0.2313948	-0.2016232	-0.0952557	-0.3582193
GO	-0.3692724	-0.4168719	-0.2629636	-0.2629636
MA	-1.1876395	-1.2978485	-0.6091822	-0.8721458
MG	0.0029013	-0.6201116	0.1622012	-0.1007624
MS	-0.6759663	-0.3179315	-0.1159459	-0.3789094
MT	-0.5951420	-0.3110968	-0.5994062	-0.8623698
PA	-0.8969187	-0.7765116	-0.5700395	-0.8330031
PB	-0.8436564	-1.0369978	-0.4866493	-0.7496128
PE	-0.8466260	-0.9946504	-0.3121759	-0.5751395
PI	-0.8572991	-1.2317311	-0.2261900	-0.4891535
PR	-0.4135365	-0.3036487	-0.4476752	-0.7106388
RJ	-0.2033967	-0.3298549	0.0035830	-0.2593806
RN	-1.0889946	-0.7841526	-0.5089830	-0.7719465
RO	-0.3901219	-0.3329469	-0.0761789	-0.3391425
RR	-0.8859627	-0.4638572	-0.5400741	-0.8030376
RS	-0.5980497	-0.3293730	-0.3219571	-0.5849207
SC	-0.1873427	-0.1803171	-0.7140933	-0.9770569
SE	-0.8233666	-0.9345410	-0.2907967	-0.5537602
SP	-0.1721155	-0.2926889	-0.4269294	-0.6898930
TO	-0.7278517	-0.6468465	-0.2142837	-0.4772473