Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Ecuador, Guatemala, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Malawi, Mali, Namibia. We are forecasting increases in activity for Protest in Nicaragua, Arrests in Malawi, Raids in Mali, and Corruption in Namibia. In our previous report, we accurately predicted increased reports of Lethal Violence in Jamaica.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected since the last update. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of increased activity (rather than decreases or stability) from models with relatively high accuracy.

Our standard models have a 70% accuracy rate, meaning that when we predict that a major event will occur, we see a major event occur approximately 70% of the time.

This month, we are releasing new forecasting models that predict large increases in activity we call shocks. Civic space shocks are relatively rare, so we highlight when our models predict the chance of a shock has increased to at least 25% for any of the next 7 months.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Ecuador

For Ecuador, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in August: In Ecuador, authorities arrested 31 individuals in Milagro, Guayas province, including the alleged leader of the organized crime group “Los Choneros,” for unlawful association and various criminal activities. A joint operation named ‘Operation Gran Libertad 13’ resulted in the arrest of 70 people across several provinces for crimes such as kidnapping and extortion. Additionally, 17 individuals were detained near the Galapagos Islands after a significant drug seizure, and several arrests, including three officers and civilians, were made in Guayaquil for alleged involvement in a kidnapping and extortion network.

• Defamation Cases in August: A Tungurahua Assemblywoman from the Construye movement in Ecuador faced legal action as the National Assembly considered a request to lift her immunity for an ongoing slander trial.

• Disaster in September: Ecuador experienced a series of challenging events, including severe forest fires beginning on September 24, 2024, in Quito and on September 26, 2024, in Guayaquil, which led to evacuations and significant environmental damage. Simultaneously, the country faced one of its worst droughts in 61 years, resulting in water shortages and energy rationing, further compounded by electricity cuts due to a human error at the Molino substation on September 7, 2024. A

• Legal Actions in September: Ecuador’s former Comptroller General was found guilty of conspiracy to launder money in a U.S. federal court related to the Odebrecht scandal. A constitutional complaint was filed against a National Transit Agency resolution, and the vice president and other officials faced legal actions related to allegations of gender-based political violence and administrative breaches.

• Legal Changes in September: Recent events in Ecuador included a proposal for a constitutional amendment by President Daniel Noboa to lift the prohibition on establishing foreign military bases, which spurred national and international debates. There was also a proposed constitutional reform to cease state funding for political campaigns.

• Security Mobilization in August and September: Recent events in Ecuador included a large-scale operation named “Gran Fénix 40,” which involved the National Police and the Attorney General’s Office, resulting in the capture of 18 individuals and the dismantling of an international drug trafficking organization. Additionally, police operations in Otavalo led to the arrest of four suspects and the seizure of illicit materials. During a holiday period, 1,310 police personnel were deployed across various roads to ensure public safety, and an interagency operation targeting illegal mining was conducted in Buenos Aires, Urcuquí. In Quito, the National Police carried out operations to intercept cocaine shipments through mail agencies, valued at $390 thousand. In September, the National Police implemented comprehensive security operations during the International Eucharistic Congress in Quito. Collaborative night patrols in Otavalo were conducted to maintain safety amid light rationing. Mega-operations in Durán canton and a five-day security force presence in Las Golondrinas were aimed at crime prevention and enforcement.

• Protests in August: Thousands of Venezuelans in cities such as Quito and Guayaquil protested against Nicolás Maduro’s re-election. In Quito, over a thousand taxi drivers demonstrated against municipal transport policies, and health workers from various provinces staged a sit-in for better working conditions. Additionally, protests were held by Waorani indigenous people demanding the closure of an oil block in Yasuní National Park.

• Purge/Replace in October: Amid an energy crisis, the Minister of Energy resigned, and a new minister was appointed to address power shortages and hydroelectric issues. The Minister of Production, Foreign Trade, Investments, and Fisheries also resigned, creating potential shifts in economic policies. Additionally, the manager of the Strategic Public Electricity Corporation resigned, adding to the urgency of leadership in addressing the energy crisis. The judicial system dismissed a judge for an error in a protection action.

• Raids in August: The Ecuadorian National Police conducted 42 raids in cities such as Guayaquil and Durán to disrupt a criminal structure involved in various crimes. Across multiple provinces, they dismantled a large narcotics trafficking network and executed operations to break up a drug-trafficking organization. The Prosecutor’s Office raided the National Court of Justice due to bribery allegations involving judges, and a police operation in Quito dismantled a mechanic shop involved in handling stolen vehicles and parts.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Guatemala

For Guatemala, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in September: Indigenous survivors of the civil war in Guatemala presented a case of slavery against women in 2011 to a national court, addressing impunity for past abuses. Citizens of Sololá filed a petition with the Constitutional Court in protest against Decree 17-2024, seeking fairer budget allocations. Additionally, a reforestation initiative in Quetzaltenango involved planting 400 trees to enhance forest cover. The Guatemalan government, with support from the United States and humanitarian organizations, provided aid to Nicaraguan political prisoners seeking refuge.

• Arrests in August: Multiple law enforcement operations in Guatemala resulted in significant arrests related to criminal activities. Over 1,545 suspects were detained from January to August for extortion across various regions. Additionally, several individuals were arrested for connections to drug trafficking and efforts against human trafficking were bolstered with the capture of two men in Jutiapa. Furthermore, 61 Salvadoran citizens were arrested for gang-related activities as part of a broader regional initiative to combat crime.

• Corruption in August: The “B410” case revealed a significant network of tax fraud involving over 400 ghost companies and evasion of substantial tax amounts. In another incident, two builders in the Chimaltenango Libramiento case faced fraud accusations, but a procedural error led to minimal reparation requirements, with further legal actions considered. Additionally, former President Otto Pérez Molina attended court hearings regarding previous corruption convictions. There were also allegations of bribery in San Martín Jilotepéque and charges against municipal workers in Chiquimula for abuse of authority and embezzlement.

• Defamation Cases in October: Investigative journalist in Guatemala, Jose Ruben Zamora, spent over 800 days in a Guatemala City prison awaiting retrial amid allegations of financial crimes that were widely perceived as politically motivated. This situation led to concerns over press freedom and democratic backsliding in the country.

• Legal Changes in September: The Credit Card Act came into force in Guatemala, providing cardholders with improved means to address complaints and inquiries to increase transparency and accountability in the financial sector. The Congress approved Decree 20-2024, allowing a tax exemption for equipment imports related to anti-drug and organized crime efforts. Additionally, the Congress reformed the law governing the Institute for the Recreation of Workers of the Private Initiative, providing it with greater administrative freedom, and a legislative initiative was proposed to increase the municipal purchase ceiling to Q2 million without bidding. A Financial Transparency Law was set to take effect on September 1, 2024, prohibiting the capitalization of interest on commissions and charges to enhance transparency and oversight.

• Lethal Violence in September and October: In Guatemala, a massacre occurred on September 21 in San Andrés, Petén, where eight individuals, including several minors, were killed in a targeted attack involving approximately 200 gunshots. On the same day, an armed attack at Café-Bar “Brindis” in Coatepeque, Quetzaltenango, resulted in six fatalities, possibly linked to local disputes. Early in September, a teachers’ union leader was fatally ambushed in Chiquibul, Chisec, Alta Verapaz, and on September 25, three women were killed in a shooting while riding a motorcycle in La Democracia, Escuintla. Additionally, a private security guard in San Miguel Petapa shot and killed his colleague after a dispute on September 6. In October, in Guatemala, a series of violent incidents occurred in October 2019. In La Libertad, Petén, six members of a family were attacked by armed men, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries. In Telemán, Alta Verapaz, the stepson of a union leader was murdered by an armed group, while the son of a congressman was killed in a targeted ambush in Huehuetenango. Additionally, an armed attack near La Aurora International Airport resulted in two fatalities, and an assault at a restaurant in Villa Canales left one woman dead and another seriously injured in Mixco.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Jamaica

For Jamaica, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in September: Thousands of volunteers in Jamaica participated in the International Coastal Cleanup Day, organized by the Jamaica Environment Trust, removing significant amounts of waste from coastlines. More than 200 students urged the Ministry of Education and Youth to implement a national school nutrition policy to foster healthy eating habits in schools. M&M Jamaica Limited committed $6. 5 million to assist families in south St Elizabeth with recovery efforts following Hurricane Beryl. Additionally, the Sign Clubs of Jamaica was launched to promote Jamaican Sign Language resources, and Give Back Jamaica’s Kickers Club provided free school shoes to students from primary schools across central Jamaica.

• Censorship in September: In Jamaica, the Opposition Leader criticized the use of the Data Protection Act by public entities, expressing concerns about potential restrictions on media access to important information. Police in south-central Manchester restricted entertainment events in communities affected by crime, issuing permits only when gatherings were deemed safe. In Montego Bay, a food vendor was banned from selling goods after being recorded in a viral video urinating in a bottle, reflecting a focus on health and sanitary regulations.

• Corruption in September: Prime Minister Andrew Holness was investigated by the Integrity Commission for potential illicit enrichment and conflicts of interest, which prompted calls for his resignation and further scrutiny by financial oversight bodies. Additionally, potential irregularities were identified in a $50 million loan from Barita Investments Limited to a company owned by Holness. The Sagicor Bank fraud case involved allegations against four women for conspiracy and fraud, with debates continuing in court regarding the evidence. Dr. Christall Byfield challenged the Integrity Commission’s findings of procurement irregularities and conflicts of interest at the Department of Correctional Services, where sanctions were suggested.

• Defamation Cases in September: Legal actions were initiated by the Prime Minister of Jamaica against senior members of the People’s National Party for alleged defamation related to statements about an Integrity Commission probe. The Energy Minister also filed a defamation lawsuit against the General Secretary of the People’s National Party due to comments made on a political platform. Additionally, a former Cabinet Minister pursued a defamation suit against a People’s National Party caretaker for allegations made in social media posts.

• Disaster in September: Hurricane Beryl caused extensive damage in Jamaica, affecting infrastructure, agriculture, and homes, with significant economic losses in the vegetable industry. Heavy rains led to severe flooding in St Mary, resulting in fatalities and community distress, while a gas explosion at a Burger King in New Kingston injured six employees. Fires at Montego Bay’s Old Shoe Market destroyed multiple shops, and widespread flooding across several parishes disrupted daily life and highlighted infrastructure vulnerabilities.

• Legal Actions in September: Recent events in Jamaica included scrutiny of Prime Minister Andrew Holness following an Integrity Commission report that flagged potential irregularities in financial transactions linked to him. Everton “Beachy Stout” McDonald and Oscar Barnes were sentenced to life imprisonment for the murder and conspiracy to murder charges related to the killing of McDonald’s wife, Tonia. Additionally, Kayodi Satchell pleaded guilty to the murder and child stealing of Danielle Rowe, while Shamoya Green was convicted in the murder of her five-month-old daughter.

• Security Mobilization in September and October: Over 100 police officers in Jamaica were trained and deployed as resource officers in schools to address violence and gang activity. Heightened security operations were initiated in Westmoreland to address increased criminal activity. Additionally, the Jamaica Constabulary Force increased police presence outside the Prime Minister’s residence due to a legitimate security threat. In October, Jamaican security forces increased their presence in Manchester, implementing tighter security measures to prevent further violence following recent gun attacks. The Trelawny police launched a large-scale operation to address a rise in murders and shootings, primarily due to conflicts over illegal lottery scamming. Additionally, police operations in Glengoffe continue as part of an investigation into the disappearance of a woman.

• Protests in October: Hotel workers at Royalton Negril in Hanover protested poor working conditions, leading to halted services and discussions with management. Residents in Olympic Way, St Andrew and Sandy Bay, Hanover staged protests in response to alleged police killings, highlighting tensions between communities and law enforcement. Healthcare workers protested infrastructural challenges in Jamaica’s public health system, while taxi operators in Manchester blocked roads over poor road conditions, affecting commuters.

• Purge/Replace in September: Marsha Smith, Member of Parliament for North East St Ann, resigned after four years in office, leading to a by-election scheduled for September 30 to fill her position. Additionally, an assistant returning officer of the Electoral Office of Jamaica resigned amid an investigation into issues raised by the People’s National Party caretaker for the same constituency. The Integrity Commission recommended further examination of the financial dealings related to entities associated with Prime Minister Andrew Holness, though no criminal charges were pursued, prompting calls from the Opposition People’s National Party for his resignation.

• Raids in August and October: The St Elizabeth police seized 836 rounds of ammunition in Grosmond, Santa Cruz, in an operation targeting illegal ammunition. Businesses in downtown Kingston underwent inspection by a multi-agency operation to enforce compliance with national laws, focusing on building code violations. In another operation, the Hanover police seized two kilograms of cocaine valued at $3 million in Orange Bay, addressing narcotics trafficking. Additionally, a Springfield rifle and ammunition were confiscated in police operations in Westmoreland and Kingston to reduce firearm-related crimes. In October, a raid in Caribbean Estate, Portmore, St Catherine, led to the seizure of at least J$88. 3 million in cash, luxury items, electronic devices, and firearms as part of an investigation into suspected lottery scamming activities. The operation included multiple search phases and resulted in arrests of suspects linked to the alleged fraud.

• Lethal Violence in August: Recent events in Jamaica included a mass shooting in Clarendon on Cherry Tree Lane, resulting in eight deaths and nine injuries, believed to be tied to gang-related feuds. In Gregory Park, St. Catherine, a shooting at a bar left two men dead and injured another, while a confrontation with police in St Thomas resulted in the deaths of three men during an alleged attempted break-in. Additionally, a man known as a former strongman was killed in a car park in downtown Kingston, and one individual was presumed dead following a shooting near Maxfield Avenue in Kingston.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Lethal Violence in October 2024. Consistent with this forecast, we saw a large spike in reporting on Lethal Violence a few months early in August 2024.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Nicaragua

For Nicaragua, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in August: A coalition of Nicaraguan organizations participated in the Universal Periodic Review to denounce human rights violations under the Ortega-Murillo government and advocate for international intervention. Human rights and feminist groups criticized the government’s insufficient measures against gender violence following the murder of 42 women over seven months. Fundación del Río launched a campaign to demand the release of eight Mayagna indigenous forest rangers criminalized by the government, coinciding with World Forest Guard Day. A group of lawyers in Argentina sought the international capture of leaders Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo to address human rights abuses in Nicaragua.

• Arrests in August: Between July and August 2024, the Nicaraguan government arrested at least 12 priests amid a crackdown on the Catholic Church, heightening tensions with the Diocese of Matagalpa. In a regional security effort, seven Salvadoran MS-13 gang members were captured and deported in a joint operation with INTERPOL. Additionally, the Nicaraguan National Police seized over 120 kilograms of cocaine and arrested a Guatemalan national at the El Guasaule border post, while other police operations in Managua led to arrests for possession of cash and cocaine.

• Censorship in August and September: The government in Nicaragua, led by Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, closed 1,500 non-governmental organizations, including religious, humanitarian, and business associations, citing failure to report financial statements. They also targeted freedom of religion by expelling or denying entry to 245 clergy members and cancelled the legal status of the Caritas Diocesan Association of Matagalpa. Additionally, the government shut down 49 media outlets and forced journalists into exile, and cancelled over 100 organizations dedicated to traditional horse parades, citing lack of financial transparency. In September, the Nicaraguan government, under President Daniel Ortega, intensified repression of independent journalism and religious expression, leading to the exile of journalists and religious figures. Digital content creators faced censorship, and artistic performances were subjected to restrictions, reflecting a broader government crackdown on dissent and expression. Despite these efforts, independent digital media operating from exile continued to work towards providing uncensored information to Nicaraguans.

• Disaster in September and October: Nicaragua experienced intense rains that caused widespread floods, landslides, and infrastructure damage, resulting in multiple evacuations and various fatalities. A boat capsized in Haulover Lagoon, leading to five deaths and two missing individuals due to heavy rains and winds. Additionally, a fire at the Aganorsa cigar factory in Estelí resulted in substantial economic losses, while Tropical Storm Helene off the coast increased weather instability with potential heavy rains and thunderstorms. In October, intense rains in Nicaragua led to widespread flooding, infrastructure damage, and more than one fatality, particularly affecting areas such as Matagalpa and Managua. An outbreak of cattle sweeper worms resulted in over 4,000 cases in livestock and a significant human case. A gas tank explosion in Bluefields caused critical injuries to several individuals and one death. Additionally, Nicaragua experienced multiple earthquakes and increased seismic activity at the Telica volcano, causing alarm but without reported damage or casualties.

• Legal Changes in August and September: The Nicaraguan government revoked the legal status of a significant portion of non-governmental organizations and implemented reforms to regulate non-profit organizations, increasing governmental oversight. Presidential control over the National Lottery was centralized, and a state-owned dredging company was established for the San Juan River. Additionally, churches and religious entities were subjected to income tax under a new government policy. In September, recent events in Nicaragua included the reform of the Code of Criminal Procedure, granting the Sandinista Police powers for raids and electronic surveillance without a judicial order. The National Assembly modified the Special Cybercrime Law to increase penalties for cybercrimes, which could affect the use of social media. Additionally, reforms to the Penal Code and the Law Against Money Laundering expanded government control over state security crimes and financial transactions. Changes to the Autonomy Law of Higher Education Institutions removed payment exemptions, potentially affecting the financial stability of educational institutions.

• Purge/Replace in August and October: The regime led by Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo dismissed over 2,000 public employees, as well as key figures in the Ministry of Agriculture, suggesting significant shifts in government personnel. Diplomatic relations between Nicaragua and Brazil were affected when ambassadors from both countries were expelled. Additionally, the regime extended its influence over religious institutions by banishing priests and conducted political purges involving Sandinista mayors in various municipalities. In October, numerous administrative changes occurred in Nicaragua, including the replacement of 20 mayors and three deputy mayors over 22 months, as well as the suspension and house arrest of officials in Nandaime. The Ortega-Murillo government severed diplomatic relations with Israel and initiated significant staffing reorganizations at the National University of Engineering. Additionally, there was a notable shift in health leadership following the resignation of the Health Minister.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Protests in Q2 2025.

Our shock models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months.

Malawi

For Malawi, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in October: There were notable political tensions in Malawi, marked by the arrest of a UTM Party official on suspicion of conspiracy to commit a felony, which led to public protests and demands for her release. Additionally, an Eastern Region Governor from the Democratic Progressive Party was arrested for allegedly inciting violence, drawing public attention due to his remarks at a rally and the implications of such statements. In a separate incident, Zambian authorities arrested 20 Malawians for unlawful entry, underscoring issues related to cross-border immigration enforcement.

• Defamation Cases in October: A judge in Malawi’s High Court Commercial Division sought compensation from a lawyer over accusations made on social media. Additionally, a defamation lawsuit was filed by a former aide against the President and the Ministry of Homeland Security.

• Legal Actions in October: The establishment of a Commission of Inquiry into the plane crash that resulted in the death of former Vice President Saulos Chilima and eight others in Malawi marked a pivotal moment, with President Lazarus Chakwera appointing Justice Jabbar Alide to lead the investigation. Allegations of corruption within Malawi’s judiciary, highlighted by human rights lawyer Alexious Kamangila, prompted multiple calls for investigations and raised issues about judicial integrity. The transfer of the unexplained wealth case against Paulos Chisale to the Financial Crimes Court underscored concerns about corruption at high government levels. The High Court of Malawi dealt with a significant fraud case involving business figure Leston Mulli and former government officials Lloyd Muhara and Cliff Chiunda, linked to the Malawi Savings Bank, reflecting the substantial financial impact of the alleged activities.

• Raids in October: Malawi Defence Force soldiers conducted a raid at Dzaleka Refugee Camp in Dowa, arresting over 200 people to dismantle alleged people-smuggling networks. Additionally, sheriffs raided a city center-based firm owned by prominent individuals, seizing assets worth millions of kwachas.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Arrests in Q2 2025.

Mali

For Mali, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in September: The High Authority of Communication (HAC) of Mali decided to suspend the TV5 World channel for three months, citing violations of media laws and regulations. Additionally, the HAC suspended the LCI information channel following a broadcast that allegedly violated media and opinion plurality standards.

• Disaster in August, September and October: Recent floods in Mali resulted in the death of more than 30 people, with thousands of families affected and significant infrastructure damage rendering many roads impassable. A bus-truck collision in central Mali caused 14 fatalities and injured 29 others, with notable material damage. Additionally, heavy rains in Ségou, Mali, led to the collapse of a house, resulting in two fatalities and injuring eight individuals. Overall, over 32,000 individuals were affected by seasonal heavy rains, leading to extensive flooding and 15 reported deaths across multiple regions. In September, floods in Mali, including in the capital Bamako, led to a declaration of a national disaster with 126,034 people affected, 30 deaths, and 104 injuries, prompting humanitarian assistance from USAID and other organizations. Additionally, torrential rains and flooding displaced over 950,000 people in Niger, Nigeria, and Mali. Mali also faced public health and environmental challenges, with significant impacts from Typhoid Fever and exposure to industrial and household chemicals resulting in numerous illnesses and deaths annually. In October, flooding in Mali affected about 351,221 people, including 155,084 children, and causing 86 fatalities. The European Union allocated €5. 4 million in humanitarian aid to the Sahel region, which includes Mali, to support those impacted by the floods. Additionally, approximately 120,000 people in Mali are living with HIV/AIDS, marking the highest prevalence in the Alliance of Sahel States.

• Legal Actions in September: The trial of a former Minister of Economy and Finance in Mali centered around a procurement scandal involving the presidential plane and military equipment, leading to financial repercussions and IMF sanctions. Eleven political leaders in Mali remained under legal scrutiny for allegedly attempting to undermine governmental authority and public order, with their potential release being significant in the country’s political dynamics. Additionally, Bakary Togola was found guilty of misappropriating funds from the Confederation of Co-operative Societies of Cotton Producers, and three notaries along with an expert geometer were prosecuted by Genco Mali SARL for forgery and related charges.

• Purge/Replace in August: The Malian government expelled the Swedish Ambassador following criticism from the Swedish Minister for International Cooperation and Trade, leading to a strain in diplomatic relations. Mali also severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine, accusing it of involvement in a military defeat involving the Malian army and the Wagner group, which affected regional stability. Additionally, the Malian government dissolved municipal councils in four rural municipalities, referencing legislative provisions that indicated changes in governance.

• Raids in September: The Malian Armed Forces conducted a series of raids targeting terrorist groups in Timbuktu, San, and Jenné to secure the national territory. They also dismantled several terrorist networks on September 27, 2024, aiming to identify and eliminate active terrorist positions.

• Lethal Violence in September: In Mali, a terrorist attack on September 7, 2023, on the boat Timbuktu resulted in over a hundred deaths and substantial damage as both civilians and military personnel were targeted. On September 17, 2024, in Bamako, a series of terrorist attacks targeted strategic sites including the Bamako International Airport, causing numerous casualties and material damage. The rural town of Saloba in the Niger Delta faced a severe security and humanitarian crisis due to terrorist threats, leading to violence and significant population displacement.

• Non-lethal Violence in September: In September 2024, Mali experienced a coordinated terrorist attack on the Faladié gendarmerie school and military sections of the Modibo Keita airport in Bamako and an attack on a transport convoy in the Bandiagara region where 116 hostages were later released. The Malian Armed Forces launched an offensive in the Mourdiah area, neutralizing approximately 30 terrorists, and a GATIA-operated checkpoint was assaulted in the Gourma region. Additionally, domestic violence continued to be a concern, with organizations advocating for women’s rights amidst these broader security challenges.

Forecasting

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Raids in Q4 2024.

Namibia

For Namibia, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of July 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in September and October: Community members in Katutura demanded urgent government action on unresolved issues in the region, emphasizing a crisis ahead of upcoming elections. Gender activists in Namibia advocated for policy reforms to improve maternity leave benefits, highlighting legal violations in maternity pay. Additionally, two communal conservancies and other parties sought legal intervention at the Windhoek High Court to stop mining operations threatening black rhinos near Khorixas. Organizations for people with disabilities urged political parties to adopt disability-friendly policies before the upcoming elections, criticizing current political neglect. In October, concerns were raised by international water rights advocates over potential groundwater contamination from uranium mining in Namibia by a subsidiary of a Russian state-owned corporation, leading to discussions about environmental protection and sustainable resource management. Anti-LGBTQ+ demonstrators petitioned the Ministry of Education to halt sex education teaching in schools, reflecting resistance to changes in sexuality and education discourse. TransNamib workers held a peaceful demonstration opposing the reappointment of a senior executive, indicating issues with labor policies and administrative appointments. A conservation community organized a demonstration against mining activities threatening endangered black rhinos, focusing on wildlife preservation, while a local initiative continued efforts to support students by providing sanitary pads to prevent school absenteeism due to lack of resources.

• Censorship in August and September: The Electoral Commission of Namibia deregistered the Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters, a political party, leading to legal challenges as the party seeks to have the deregistration declared unlawful. Additionally, the Ministry of Home Affairs, Immigration, and Safety Security revoked the permission for the vessel MV Kathrin to enter and dock at Walvis Bay, involving a vessel carrying cargo in transit. In September, the High Court in Namibia ruled against the Electoral Commission of Namibia’s decision to deregister the Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters party without a hearing, citing misuse of Electoral Act provisions and emphasizing due process for political entities. Additionally, members of the Landless People’s Movement blocked access to the University of Namibia in response to Swapo’s gathering on campus, defying a temporary ban on political gatherings.

• Corruption in August and October: The Fishrot trial in Namibia, a significant corruption case in the fisheries sector, involved allegations of fraud, corruption, and racketeering related to fishing quotas and experienced ongoing delays in court proceedings. Separately, Maria Johanna Coetzee was extradited from South Africa to Namibia to face charges of fraud, theft, and money laundering totaling over N$3. 3 million. Additionally, assets linked to an investment scheme by activist Michael Amushelelo were declared forfeited by a Windhoek High Court judge under the Prevention of Organised Crime Act. In October, Namibians committed bank fraud amounting to N$18. 6 million, with most incidents occurring through Electronic Fund Transfers valued at N$10. 57 million. Denzel Mulunga was arrested for the theft of fuel from the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia, facing a forfeiture order. The Fishrot fishing quotas case continues as a significant legal issue despite the acquittal of James Hatuikulipi on bribery charges. Namibian police are investigating cases of fraud in the Erongo Region, where a businessman in Walvis Bay was defrauded of N$167,000 through electronic transfer.

• Defamation Cases in August: In Namibia, the Affirmative Repositioning leader was ordered to pay N$100,000 in a defamation case ruled against him by the Windhoek High Court, due to remarks made about the deputy finance minister on social media. The Landless People’s Movement announced plans to appeal a High Court judgment after it was found to have made defamatory claims against Namdeb. Additionally, the High Court dismissed a defamation case filed by a former employee of Mobile Telecommunications Limited against multiple respondents.

• Disaster in August and September: Namibia faced a severe drought crisis, described as the worst in a century, affecting nearly half of its population and prompting the United Nations to request international assistance for food and water shortages. In the Omaheke region, approximately 800 people have died from malnutrition since 2022, with more than 30,000 cases reported. The country also recorded 12,286 malaria cases and 28 deaths, amidst challenges with water supply in Windhoek where reservoirs dropped below 15%, leading to a Category D drought declaration. In September, Namibia experienced a severe drought, leaving approximately 1. 4 million people facing a food crisis and increasing hunger-related deaths. The Kavango East region reported over 3,300 malaria cases, indicating ongoing public health concerns. A major fire in Aussenkehr destroyed 72 reed houses, displacing numerous families. The drought also critically affected natural water sources, posing life-threatening challenges to local wildlife, and a tragic accident in Zambezi resulted in the deaths of four children who suffocated after being trapped in an old freezer.

• Legal Actions in August: The Fishrot fraud case in Namibia, involving corruption and racketeering in the fisheries sector, continued to experience delays, with the trial now projected to extend into 2026. In another legal development, Jandre Dippenaar received a 15-year prison sentence in a landmark ruling for murder following a fatal road accident, setting a legal precedent in Namibia. Additionally, the Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters lost a legal battle against the Electoral Commission of Namibia over deregistration, further showcasing electoral legal disputes. Michael Amushelelo’s investment scheme assets were forfeited by the state under the Prevention of Organised Crime Act, indicating enforcement of financial crime regulations, and the High Court dismissed Harvey Boulter’s application to avoid prosecution on murder charges, supporting the prosecutor general’s decision to proceed with the case.

• Legal Changes in September: Significant controversy surrounded the proposed Public Gatherings Bill in Namibia, as it was perceived by some as reminiscent of past restrictive measures. An amendment to the Income Tax Act allowed Namibians earning below N$100,000 to be exempt from tax, necessitating adjustments in PAYE deductions by employers. The government worked towards enacting the Data Protection and Cybercrime Bills, aiming to enhance the protection of citizens’ personal information and digital rights. The EU’s new deforestation regulations presented Namibia with an opportunity to enhance forest governance, potentially affecting environmental policies and trade. Additionally, the proposed Divorce Bill, which sought to simplify divorce processes, generated debate due to concerns about increasing divorce rates.

• Protests in October: Protesters from the Popular Democratic Movement in Namibia expressed opposition to the Electoral Commission’s decision to grant a ballot printing contract to a contentious South African company. Air Namibia employees demonstrated in Windhoek, seeking the payment of severance packages following the airline’s liquidation. Nationwide demonstrations, led by the Namibia Transport and Allied Workers Union, opposed the reappointment of TransNamib’s Executive for Human Capital due to dissatisfaction with management. Members of the Doro !Nawas and Uibasen Twyfelfontein conservancies protested against mining activities threatening their region’s environment.

• Purge/Replace in September: The Landless People’s Movement raised questions about the potential dismissal of the sport minister due to delays in renovations. Concerns were also expressed about the Electoral Commission of Namibia following the erroneous deregistration of a political party, leading to calls for the removal of commissioners. In diplomatic matters, Namibia reassigned its ambassadors to Brazil, Botswana, and Senegal. Additionally, the Swapo leadership in the Erongo region decided to contest the suspension of three councillors from the Walvis Bay municipal council. Lastly, the dismissal of the former chief executive of the Namibia Students Financial Assistance Fund was upheld by the Supreme Court.

• Non-lethal Violence in September and October: In Namibia, a SWAPO rally in Walvis Bay turned chaotic due to the distribution of food parcels, leading to national criticism and apologies from party officials. Allegations of police brutality emerged in Rundu following a report of severe beating by undercover military police, prompting reactions from the Namibian Police. Additionally, tensions over ancestral land rights were reported between the /Khomanin community and a German farmer, with the community seeking intervention. In the Ohangwena region, an insufficient supply of drought-relief food led to a public altercation, drawing attention to food insecurity. Lastly, a burglary in Windhoek resulted in significant property damage but no theft, raising questions about local security measures. In October, there was a reported surge in street crime within the Goreangab and Havana informal settlements in Windhoek, with over ten people victimized each weekend mainly through robberies involving stabbings. The Gobabis Magistrate Court was affected by an alleged arson attack, prompting discussions on security at court premises in Namibia. Additionally, a clash occurred between Swapo and the Landless People’s Movement in Mariental over campaign flag placements, reflecting political tensions.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Corruption in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.