Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Kenya, Senegal, Zambia, Paraguay, Honduras, Azerbaijan, Peru, Liberia. We are forecasting increases in activity for Arrests, Legal Actions, Defamation Cases, and Raids in Senegal, Troop Mobilization in Kenya, and Civic Activism, Corruption, and Lethal Violence in Zambia.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected since the last update. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of increased activity (rather than decreases or stability) from models with relatively high accuracy.
Our standard models have a 70% accuracy rate, meaning that when we predict that a major event will occur, we see a major event occur approximately 70% of the time.
This month, we are releasing new forecasting models that predict large increases in activity we call shocks. Civic space shocks are relatively rare, so we highlight when our models predict the chance of a shock has increased to at least 25% for any of the next 7 months.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)
Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
Kenya
For Kenya, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Defamation Cases in August: A Cabinet Secretary nominee in Kenya planned to sue the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission for alleged defamation, with claims from leaders in the Western Region that the anti-graft body was undermining the former Kakamega governor. Additionally, a former Nairobi governor decided to forgive and withdraw his defamation case against a student who had impersonated him on Facebook.
Election Activity in August: Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the African Union Commission Chairperson received significant national backing in Kenya, with President William Ruto actively campaigning for his bid. In Magarini Constituency, officials of the Orange Democratic Movement endorsed former MP Harrison Kombe for a direct nomination in an upcoming by-election after his previous win was nullified by the Supreme Court due to electoral malpractice. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i began preparing for a potential presidential run in 2027, enlisting the help of an internationally recognized firm to boost his candidacy.
Legal Actions in October: Recent events in Kenya included the impeachment trial of the Deputy President following a ruling by the High Court, with proceedings carried out in the Senate plenary. The High Court upheld convictions against former IEBC officials for abuse of office during the 2013 General Election. Additionally, charges were dropped against a tycoon in a major petroleum products case due to lack of evidence. In another case, four senior Taita Taveta County officials faced prosecution for embezzlement, while the High Court lifted a stay order against a Copyright Tribunal judgment involving an unlawful license by the Kenya Copyright Board.
Security Mobilization in August: Kenyan police cleared traders and matatu drivers from Nairobi’s central business district and set up roadblocks on major roads amid government protests. Four hundred Kenyan police officers were deployed to Haiti for a UN-endorsed mission to combat armed gangs. The Kenya Defense Forces sent a fourth contingent of the Quick Reaction Force to the Democratic Republic of the Congo as part of a UN peacekeeping mission. Kenyan authorities carried out a wildlife control operation in Juja to manage hyenas following local attacks. During anti-government protests, military involvement alongside police forces helped maintain order.
Protests in August and September: Young activists in Kenya led the ‘Nane Nane’ protests on August 8 to demand governance and economic reforms, resulting in a strong police response including arrests and tear gas. The Kenya Union of Post Primary Education Teachers initiated a nationwide strike over unmet demands impacting the education sector during exam preparations. Health workers in Meru County engaged in a prolonged strike due to staffing and promotion grievances, affecting public health services. Residents of Kipsitet Trading Center in Kericho County protested against rising insecurity, calling for government intervention to ensure community safety. In September, recent events in Kenya included a strike at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport by the Kenya Airport Workers Union, protesting the planned takeover by the Adani Group, which disrupted airport operations. University lecturers and staff went on strike, demanding the implementation of a collective bargaining agreement, while secondary school teachers also staged a strike for improved working conditions. Residents in Loresho and Kitisuru protested the alleged illegal acquisition of land, and locals blocked a highway to demand urgent repairs of the Kabarnet-Tenges-Saos-Eldama Ravine route.
Purge/Replace in August and October: President William Ruto reshuffled his cabinet by incorporating six new Cabinet Secretaries from the opposition party, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), following the dissolution of his previous cabinet amid anti-government protests. Additionally, notable local governance disruptions included the impeachment of three County Executive Committee members in Bomet County, the repeated impeachment of the Meru County Governor, and the re-organisation efforts by the opposition Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition following the recruitment of key ODM allies into the government’s cabinet. In October, deputy President Rigathi Gachagua was impeached by Kenya’s National Assembly and Senate for gross constitutional violations and abuse of office, with Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki replacing him. Additionally, Kericho Governor Eric Mutai was impeached by the county assembly amid accusations of mismanagement and land seizures, with the matter being escalated to the Senate.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Troop Mobilization in Q2 2025.
Liberia
For Liberia, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in August and October: Recent events in Liberia included the presentation of over 300,000 medical report books by the Women NGO Secretariat of Liberia to combat Sexual Gender-Based Violence, involving health workers and organizations nationwide. Several former Liberia Immigration Service employees filed a petition for a Writ of Prohibition challenging government actions related to recent pension plans. Additionally, the Better Future Foundation and 34 Civil Society Organizations presented a National Unification Day report and petition to the government to promote peace and unity. In October, events in Liberia included a coalition of civil society organizations petitioning the president to address corruption and implement governance reforms. A campaign funded by the British Embassy was launched to advocate for the abolition of the death penalty. Additionally, initiatives to tackle corruption, poverty, and healthcare challenges were supported by the pro-democracy group STAND. Men Against Rape and Domestic Violence contributed sanitary pads to schools in Monrovia to support an anti-violence campaign, while the Liberia National Red Cross Society provided emergency cash transfers to families affected by severe floods.
Corruption in August and October: Illicit mining operations reportedly defrauded the Liberian government of over US$29 million, leading to charges against individuals involved. Former officials from the George Manneh Weah administration, including an ex-Finance Minister, were implicated in corruption cases, while an audit revealed unauthorized financial activities by the central bank governor, resulting in suspension. Additionally, investigations into payroll padding and overspending by the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Authority were reported. In October, multiple incidents involving alleged corruption emerged in Liberia, prompting investigations and legal proceedings. A bribery scandal within the House of Representatives led to an inquiry by the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission, while accusations against a former Minister of Finance included economic sabotage and misappropriation of funds. Additionally, alleged off-budget government expenditures and accusations against Central Bank officials resulted in court actions and further scrutiny of financial management in the country.
Irregular Transition in October: Attempts to unseat Speaker J. Fonati Koffa in Liberia led to a legislative crisis, with the “Majority Bloc” of lawmakers seeking his removal through constitutional means, but facing resistance and intervention from the Supreme Court. Allegations of bribery emerged, claiming that lawmakers were offered financial incentives to support the removal, causing some to withdraw their backing. These efforts resulted in a deadlock in the lower house, marked by competing sessions and a lack of quorum, reflecting tensions and instability within the political landscape.
Disaster in August: Recent events in Liberia included severe flooding in Monrovia and surrounding areas, affecting over 100,000 people, with agencies mobilizing resources to assist those impacted. Liberia reported five cases of Mpox as part of a larger epidemic in Africa. Water pollution in Margibi County was confirmed due to toxic waste, impacting local drinking water sources. The healthcare system faced a crisis with significant maternal and newborn mortality rates, and coastal erosion posed a threat to Buchanan and other areas, affecting homes and the local economy.
Legal Actions in August: The Supreme Court of Liberia overturned the life sentence of a former Chief Justice and her relatives for murder due to insufficient evidence. The Supreme Court also issued a temporary prohibition against the suspension of the Central Bank Governor, raising constitutional questions about the president’s executive power. Additionally, the court issued a stay order against the prosecution of former officials in a corruption case from the previous administration, and the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission is investigating a senator over alleged payroll padding. Lastly, individuals were acquitted in a US$100 million cocaine trafficking case, sparking public debate over the justice system.
Legal Changes in September: The Liberian House of Representatives approved amendments to the Aliens and Nationality Law, allowing dual citizens to hold elective positions. Issues arose regarding unauthorized alterations of the 2024 recast national budget, with scrutiny over legislative procedures. The government adopted PFM regulations to enhance governance and resource management as part of the 2024–2027 strategy. Bills were passed to establish the Liberian National Tourism Authority and ratify the Presidential Transition Act, along with reviewing township creation in Lofa County to improve governance and living standards.
Purge/Replace in August and October: In Liberia, President Joseph Boakai suspended the Central Bank Governor and initiated an overhaul of key government institutions following allegations of misconduct and unauthorized spending. The Internal Affairs Minister announced a restructuring of local governance by replacing the head of the National Traditional Council of Chiefs and Elders to enhance leadership across counties. Additionally, the Executive Director of the Office of the War and Economic Crimes Court was dismissed amidst scrutiny over the appointment process, and there were calls for the dismissal of the Civil Service Agency Director General due to allegations of mismanagement. Furthermore, the Monrovia City Corporation terminated nine employees for social media criticisms, raising concerns about free speech. In October, several events took place in Liberia, including the removal effort by a political faction in the House of Representatives against the Speaker due to alleged constitutional violations, leading to political tension and bribery accusations. President Joseph Nyuma Boakai initiated a diplomatic overhaul by terminating the appointments of Ambassadors-at-Large, Special Envoys, and Trade and Investment Representatives, partly due to unauthorized diplomatic passport sales. Additionally, the Deputy Speaker of the House faced pressure from a majority bloc to appear before the body, and the Chief Justice reallocated public defenders in the judiciary, while the Commerce Minister resigned amidst allegations of fund misuse for personal luxury purchases.
Raids in August: The Environmental Protection Agency in Liberia closed the Grandma Mineral Water Factory in Jacob Town, Gardnerville, due to environmental and public health violations, affecting consumers of its products. Tensions at the headquarters of the opposition Congress for Democratic Change led to repeated police confrontations with party supporters in Monrovia. Additionally, the Monrovia City Police conducted raids on vendors in central Monrovia to clear unauthorized trading areas.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Senegal
For Senegal, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in October: Several events in Senegal included the arrest of journalists sparking debates on press freedom, an interception of a canoe carrying 230 illegal migrants off the coast of Dakar, and the dismantling of a Mafia network in Dakar following a kidnapping complaint. Additionally, a Gambian vehicle carrying 25 migrants was intercepted, highlighting regional migration challenges. A political leader was also arrested for disobeying orders during an attempted visit to flood-affected areas.
Censorship in August and October: Authorities in Senegal blocked the accounts of some press groups, leading to concerns about financial and operational censorship. The Minister of Communication, Telecommunications, and Digital stated that there were no issues with press companies. In October, in Senegal, the government prevented a journalist from leaving the country, citing the absence of a diplomatic passport, which the journalist reportedly never possessed. This incident raised concerns regarding press freedom and governmental control over journalists’ movement and expression.
Defamation Cases in August: The defamation case involving the Force Covid-19 Fund in Senegal concluded with the Dakar Court rejecting the defense’s claim that the citation was null.
Disaster in September and October: Heavy rains across various regions in Senegal, including Kaolack, Touba, and Dakar, led to significant flooding, disrupting transportation and affecting thousands, with entire neighborhoods submerged. The rise of the Senegal River resulted in the evacuation of villages such as Falacouniou, affecting nearly ten villages with widespread flooding and infrastructure damage. A maritime accident in Mbour caused a canoe carrying approximately 200 people to capsize, resulting in numerous casualties, and a traffic accident near Digane in the Diourbel region led to five fatalities and 42 victims overall. Additionally, heavy rains caused infrastructure damage, including a building collapse in the Keur Niang district of Touba, resulting in one death. In October, the floods in Senegal, caused by the overflowing of the Senegal River, affected approximately 55,600 people and 1,500 agricultural producers, leading to disruptions in water, electricity, and telecommunications services, and causing significant damage to homes and farmland in regions such as Bakel, Matam, and Saint-Louis. Various drowning incidents, involving multiple individuals, including children and young adults, occurred in regions such as Sedhiou, Koussanar, and Matam due to the floods. Additionally, a bus accident on National Route 21 near Sedhiou injured sixteen people, three seriously, amidst difficult road conditions during the flood period. Senegal also faced a public health crisis with 12,000 new cancer cases diagnosed annually, resulting in at least 8,500 deaths each year. Furthermore, a fire at the Senelec headquarters in Ouakam caused significant damage, following a suspected electrical short circuit.
Legal Changes in August and September: The Senegalese government passed a law granting amnesty for acts of political violence that occurred between February 2021 and February 2024, which sparked debate and calls for repeal from victims’ collectives. In September, the National Assembly of Senegal passed a law replacing the Senegalese Committee on Human Rights with the National Commission on Human Rights and officially amended its rules of procedure in response to concerns about legislative irregularities. A new law was adopted to facilitate the entry of genetically modified organisms into the country. Additionally, there were calls for the repeal of a recent amnesty law and the establishment of a support structure for victims of political violence, while constitutional changes were made to modify government titles in line with the French model.
Security Mobilization in August: A targeted deployment of 119 Hygiene Service officers was implemented in Touba, Senegal, to facilitate the Grand Magal, involving logistical support from 19 pick-up vehicles and 3 trucks. The deployment was aimed at maintaining order and sanitation during the religious event and had limited impact on broader public life beyond the festival’s duration.
Purge/Replace in August and September: In Senegal, a comprehensive reshuffle within the National Police was carried out by the Minister of the Interior, affecting key units such as Urban Security and Cybersecurity. The Supreme Council of the Judiciary also conducted a significant reshuffle in the judiciary, involving the reassignment of various officials. Additionally, the President announced several changes in the national police through a decree, including the replacement of a commissioner, signaling shifts in leadership. In September, the dissolution of the National Assembly in Senegal led to the replacement of parliamentary members, marking a significant political shift. Its immediate impact on institutional functionality and power dynamics remained a subject of national debate.
Raids in October: A major raid in Senegal as part of Operation Nawetaan by Military Zone No. 4 led to the dismantling of 17 clandestine mining sites and the suspension of six mining companies in the Falémé area. The operation targeted illegal activities to protect the environment and ensure compliance with regulations.
Non-lethal Violence in October: During the early parliamentary elections campaign in Senegal, significant electoral violence was reported, including the attack on the convoy of a ruling party leader in Dakar and the torching of a coalition’s headquarters. In another incident, a Pastef coalition caravan was attacked in Koungheul, injuring a bodyguard and an ally. Additionally, the Senegalese army destroyed over fifty hectares of Indian hemp fields in the Djibidione area, impacting the illegal cannabis trade. Moreover, the headquarters of a political movement led by a former Dakar Mayor was attacked, reinforcing the tense political climate.
Forecasting
Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Defamation Cases in Q1 2025.
Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Arrests (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025), Legal Actions (q2 2025), and Raids (Q4 2024 and Q2 2025).
Zambia
For Zambia, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Censorship in October: The Independent Broadcasting Authority in Zambia warned broadcasting stations against using unverified information following an apology from KBN TV for airing old footage, raising concerns over misinformation in media reporting. Additionally, the Ministry of Information and Media in Zambia dismissed allegations that police blocked individuals from entering High Court premises during a case hearing, highlighting a dispute over access and control at judicial proceedings.
Corruption in August: During the first quarter of 2024, Zambia experienced significant financial and legal challenges, with a report revealing a loss of K60 billion due to illicit financial flows and tax evasion involving foreign nationals. Meanwhile, the Anti-Corruption Commission launched an investigation into the Zambia Army and Ministry of Defence over a US$21 million contract alleged to involve bribery and money laundering. Additionally, former Foreign Affairs Minister faced allegations of misappropriating US$4. 7 million intended for a mission building in Turkey, while a Chinese couple was implicated in smuggling gold and currency into Zambia. The High Court also ordered the forfeiture of 53 properties belonging to a proxy company linked to a former politician, marking a serious effort to address criminal proceeds.
Defamation Cases in August: Recent events in Zambia included a defamation case where a member of the UPND National Management Committee sued President Hakainde Hichilema for damages over allegations of treason. Additionally, the leader of the National Democratic Congress was charged with libel related to online statements, leading to her arrest and pending court appearance. Another case involved a lawsuit against Stanbic Bank Zambia for defamation damages following an incorrect credit report.
Election Irregularities in September: Recent events in Zambia included concerns raised over President Hakainde Hichilema’s interpretation of constitutional gaps that might allow for a significant election delay, leading to debates about its implications for the country’s democratic framework. The Electoral Commission of Zambia faced criticism for allegedly not adequately addressing electoral malpractices such as voter buying, prompting calls for stricter enforcement of electoral laws. Additionally, ambiguity in Article 52 (6) of the Zambian Constitution was identified as a potential disruptor of the electoral process, with calls for amendments to prevent misuse.
Purge/Replace in September: In Zambia, President Hakainde Hichilema suspended three Constitutional Court judges due to allegations of gross misconduct and incompetence related to a past election case. He also appointed Lieutenant General Geoffrey Choongo Zyeele as the new Army Commander, replacing the former commander, and made changes to the deputy position. Additionally, the Health Minister dissolved the Zambia Medicines and Medical Supplies Agency Board over inefficiencies with a medicine shipment, and there have been reports of political interference in the dismissals of civil servants, raising concerns among political and civil groups about governance impartiality.
Raids in August and September: In Zambia, the Drug Enforcement Commission and the Canine Unit conducted a raid in Lusaka’s Thornpark area, arresting five individuals with counterfeit United States Dollar notes. The Lusaka City Council, Drug Enforcement Commission, and State Police also conducted a raid at the Intercity Bus terminus in Lusaka to target illegal alcohol sales. Additionally, police searched the residence of an independent MP in Lusaka as part of an ongoing investigation. Suspected political cadres disrupted a political program at Yusuf Radio in Mpika, raising concerns over media freedom. In September, security agencies in Zambia conducted a raid at the Office of the Commissioner for Refugees in Lusaka, focusing on a suspected terrorist plot and resulting in the confiscation of electronic gadgets. In another incident, a joint police team raided the house of a former Member of Parliament in Luanshya, recovering over 350 tons of stolen copper oxide ore linked to illegal mining activities. Additionally, the Department of National Parks and Wildlife demolished illegal structures in Lusaka National Park to address unlawful land allocation, while police denied reports of raiding a businessman’s house in Chipata, where they were allegedly searching for a fugitive MP. Reports of a planned police raid on former President Edgar Lungu’s residence were also refuted by law enforcement.
Non-lethal Violence in October: In Mufulira, Zambia Army recruits were involved in a non-lethal violence incident against civilians, leading to injuries and an official apology and investigatory promises from the Army. Former President Edgar Lungu’s convoy was allegedly attacked by UPND cadres during a funeral procession in Chingola, sparking a debate over political violence amid conflicting reports. Additionally, a tragic dog attack in Chipata Compound severely injured a 14-year-old boy, resulting in community outcry, while in Lusaka, a 61-year-old man faced court for assaulting his wife over a domestic dispute. A video of a confrontation between traffic police and a motorist in Lusaka also highlighted tensions regarding police conduct and public accountability.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Our shock models are predicting an elevated risk of Civic Activism (Q1 2025), Corruption (Q2 2025), and Lethal Violence (Q4 2024).
Honduras
For Honduras, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in September: The Honduran Armed Forces captured four individuals transporting 3. 7 tons of cocaine near Guanaja Island, marking a significant drug seizure in the country’s history. The former director of the National Police and his wife were arrested in Spain and extradited to Honduras on charges of money laundering. Authorities in La Mosquitia arrested five Colombians found with cocaine, and Manuel Alberto Coto Barrientos, involved in a $35 million embezzlement case from El Salvador, was apprehended in Honduras.
Corruption in August, September and October: The largest involved a former Health Secretary accused of embezzling over 220 million lempiras through fraudulent medical purchases. A judge coordinating Organized Crime, Environment, and Corruption Courts faced charges of extortion. Additionally, a former Minister of the Interior was investigated for a fraudulent fire truck purchase. A major drug bust led to the detention of both Hondurans and Colombians, and ongoing prosecutions in the Pandora case involved embezzlement of over 101 million in state funds. In September, a video showed Carlos Zelaya negotiating with drug traffickers for a bribe tied to a political campaign, leading to a political crisis. Former National Police Director Ricardo Ramírez del Cid was arrested on charges of money laundering, and former Supreme Court judges faced investigations for alleged judicial prevarication. Additionally, municipal administrations were implicated in mishandling public funds, and former Copeco officials were charged with fraud related to pandemic emergency resource procurement. In October, a former mayor of Tegucigalpa and presidential candidate faced charges of money laundering and embezzlement. Similarly, the former commissioner of Copeco was accused of fraud and negligence related to pandemic-related procurement. In another case, authorities recovered funds linked to the Honduran Institute of Social Security scandal, while the former National Police director and his wife were charged with money laundering. Additionally, a former Finance Minister and others were prosecuted for their involvement in the “mobile hospitals” scandal during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Election Activity in August and September: Debates in Honduras have been centered on the feasibility of implementing electronic voting in upcoming elections, with political figures raising concerns over technical, legal, and budgetary barriers. The National Electoral Council’s budget approval has also been a major issue, as delays in Congress have prompted discussions about election transparency and financial challenges. Political campaigns and pre-candidacies for the 2025 elections have been intensifying, highlighting a competitive political landscape. Concerns about election transparency have been raised by international and national actors, including expressions of confidence and support from organizations like the United Nations for a transparent electoral process. In September, the National Electoral Council (CNE) in Honduras called for primary elections to be held on March 9, 2025, after the National Congress approved a budget for the elections. The CNE also announced the use of the Preliminary Electoral Results Transmission System (TREP) and biometric systems to ensure transparency. Significant political activity included rallies by a Liberal Party presidential candidate and national mobilizations by the ruling Freedom and Refoundation Party supporting the President amidst political tensions. The election of Cossette López as president of the CNE was celebrated by political opposition as a win for democracy.
Election Irregularities in August and September: Controversy arose surrounding the budget approval for the National Electoral Council (CNE) amid allegations that it violated the council’s autonomy, potentially impacting election transparency. Allegations of electoral fraud involved the irregular registration of Nicaraguans in the National Registry of Persons in Duyure, Choluteca, prompting an investigation by the Technical Criminal Investigation Agency. Additionally, skepticism existed over implementing electronic voting due to high costs, legal reform needs, and inadequate infrastructure, while concerns about potential election fraud were exacerbated by delays and disputes related to the electoral budget approval. In September, reports indicated intimidation tactics involving the Presidential Honor Guard and bomb dogs at the National Electoral Council facilities, raising concerns about the election environment in Honduras. The CNE eliminated five political parties from future elections due to a lack of representation, which could alter the political landscape. Controversy over the preliminary electoral results transmission system for the 2025 primary elections sparked concerns of potential fraud, affecting perceived transparency. The suspension of a National Congress session delayed budget approval for the 2025 elections, potentially impacting election preparation. Additionally, an electoral reform debate highlighted concerns about voter inflation and called for changes to bolster electoral integrity in remote areas.
Legal Actions in August and October: Judge Marco Antonio Vallecillo was accused of extortion related to manipulating judicial decisions in organized crime, environment, and corruption cases. The Public Prosecutor’s Office summoned 36 individuals, including former presidents and officials, amidst investigations into drug trafficking connections linked to former President Juan Orlando Hernández’s trial in the U.S. Furthermore, the case against Wilfredo Cerrato Santos and Kerin Francisco Maldonado for fraud in the purchase of fire trucks implicated former government officials, while the extradition of several Hondurans, including Mario José Cálix, to the United States highlighted international cooperation in tackling drug trafficking. In October, the former mayor of the capital, Nasry Asfura, was involved in a high-profile case with multiple accusations such as money laundering and fraud. Javier Marín Gonzales was extradited to the United States for fentanyl-related drug trafficking, reflecting international cooperation in fighting organized crime. Additionally, former officials like Pedro Armando Aguilar Orellana and Arnaldo Urbina Soto were found guilty of serious crimes, including murder and drug trafficking.
Legal Changes in September and October: The Supreme Court of Justice in Honduras declared the Employment and Economic Development Zones (ZEDE) unconstitutional, nullifying their legal framework. The National Congress approved the Electoral Procedure Law to regulate electoral processes and challenges, and a special budget for the 2025 primary elections was approved. The National Electoral Council revoked the legal status of five political parties, and discussions on reforms to the Electoral Law, including new electoral technologies, are ongoing in the National Congress. In October, the Supreme Court of Justice in Honduras declared the Amnesty Political Law constitutional, prompting intense political debate due to its implications for political accountability. A proposed Tax Justice Law aimed at addressing economic inequalities faced significant opposition, leading to legislative session suspensions due to concerns about increased living costs and investment impacts. President Xiomara Castro sanctioned a decree mandating payment for mobile and internet services in lempiras to reinforce national currency usage, and also authorized direct purchases related to security infrastructure, raising concerns over expanded executive power. Additionally, a decree was sanctioned permitting the National Electoral Council to use the National Institute of Vocational Training’s facilities to organize the 2025 elections.
State of Emergency in October: The national state of emergency in Honduras was extended to combat organized and common crime across 226 municipalities. Additionally, a state of emergency was declared due to flooded rivers in the departments of Atlantis and Cortez, and a state of caution followed four low-intensity earthquakes. A localized curfew was implemented in Azacualpa, Santa Bárbara, due to activities by the criminal group “Nueva Generación.” There was also a Green Alert in several departments due to adverse weather conditions.
Protests in September: Protests in Honduras affected various sectors, with members of the Civic Council of Popular and Indigenous Organizations blocking the CA-5 highway seeking justice for a murdered environmentalist. Healthcare workers in San Pedro Sula demonstrated over delayed wages, while teachers opposed proposed reforms affecting their job security. Additionally, retirees from the National Electric Energy Company protested for pension adjustments.
Purge/Replace in September: A major political upheaval occurred in Honduras following the release of a video involving a high-ranking political figure meeting with drug traffickers, leading to his resignation and further calls for resignations within the government. The controversy also resulted in the resignation of the head of the parliamentary bench of the Freedom and Refoundation Party (Libre), indicating a reshuffling linked to the scandal. Additionally, Honduras’ ambassador to Canada resigned in opposition to the government’s stance on the extradition treaty with the United States, and several judiciary members were suspended for procedural improprieties. In response to the political crisis, the Minister of Defense was replaced to stabilize and restore confidence in the national security framework.
Raids in September: Authorities in Honduras conducted multiple raids targeting an international fraud and money laundering network, resulting in significant financial losses. The National Police also raided the home of Tocoa’s mayor as part of an investigation into security footage connected to a murder case and dismantled a criminally established video surveillance system in Sabanagrande. Additionally, the former mayor of Lepaera faced asset seizures due to suspicions of illicit origins, and there was a controversial arrest in the Tolupana community, which drew criticism from local leaders.
Lethal Violence in September: There were reports of the murder of an environmental defender in Tocoa, Colón, which attracted attention from both local and international groups demanding justice. Additionally, the mass killing of 46 prisoners at the National Women’s Penitentiary on June 20, 2023, remained a significant event, indicating ongoing safety issues in the prison system. Other violent incidents included a multiple homicide in the La Limonera community, the targeted killing of two men in Siguatepeque, and the abduction and murder of a minor in Tegucigalpa, all contributing to concerns about violence and insecurity in the country.
Non-lethal Violence in October: In Honduras, a case of community vigilantism occurred in La Ceiba where a woman suspected of burglary was tied up and displayed publicly until police intervention. Systematic attacks on a local priest by members of the Libre party resulted in solidarity from the Jesuit community and calls for justice. In San Pedro Sula, a robbery incident left a woman injured by gunfire, while a shark attack in Tela caused serious injuries to a man, raising concerns about safety in the area. Additionally, forced internal displacement due to violence and organized crime continues to affect thousands in the country.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Peru
For Peru, our data includes coverage through October 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Election Irregularities in August: Peruvian President Dina Boluarte stated that Peru was actively rejecting the alleged fraud in Venezuela’s presidential elections, emphasizing the country’s commitment to promoting democracy and transparency.
Legal Changes in August and October: Law 32107 was promulgated by the Peruvian Congress to define the application scope of crimes against humanity and war crimes, removing statutory limitations in alignment with international statutes. The Ministry of Economy and Finance implemented a General Sales Tax of 18% on digital services to equitably tax international and local providers. Additionally, Congress introduced a controversial bill to oversee judges and prosecutors, sparking debates about its constitutionality, and another initiative to increase control over NGOs, leading to concerns about civil society’s independence. A proposed bill sought to adjust teachers’ retirement pensions to provide a more equitable financial settlement. In October, several districts in Lima implemented ordinances prohibiting motorcycles with two passengers to curb crime during a state of emergency. Congress passed a constitutional reform law allowing medical staff to hold dual employment in public service. The Executive promulgated Act No. 32130, granting police preliminary investigation powers, formerly held by the Public Prosecutor’s Office. Law No. 32123 reformed the pension system, affecting contributions and benefits for ONP and AFP members. Additionally, Congress approved the creation of the College of Politologists of Peru to regulate the professional practice of political science graduates.
State of Emergency in September: Several districts in Lima and one in Callao were placed under a state of emergency owing to increased crime, extortion, and violence, resulting in restrictions on assembly and transit. Additionally, regions including Amazonas, San Martín, Ucayali, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, and Huánuco faced emergency declarations due to forest fires causing significant damage and threats to communities. The Loreto region was also declared in a state of emergency due to severe drought and water scarcity, impacting river navigation and essential supplies.
Security Mobilization in September and October: A nationwide operation called “Genesis” was initiated by the Peruvian National Police to combat crime, involving increased urban policing with specialized units patrolling the streets. In Lima and Callao, an emergency was declared in 14 districts, resulting in heightened police deployment to address extortion and crime. Additionally, 1,000 police personnel were sent to Sullana, Piura, to enhance operations against crime, and security preparations for the APEC 2024 summit in Lima were underway with the allocation of 530 officers. To address mass extortion in the transport sector, over 24,000 vehicles in Lima and Callao were equipped with surveillance cameras. In October, the deployment of over 7,600 police officers in Lima and Callao during a state of emergency led to 758 arrests and the disruption of 37 gangs as efforts intensified to combat extortion and enhance public safety. Additionally, the Peruvian government approved the entry of U.S. military personnel and equipment to support security for the APEC summit, involving over 600 troops. Furthermore, 3,000 troops from the Second Army Division were deployed to work alongside police in Lima to address rising insecurity, indicating significant military involvement in domestic security operations. A large police presence was also arranged for the Lord of the Miracles celebration in Lima, with more than 6,400 personnel ensuring safety during the event.
Protests in October: In October, thousands across Lima and Callao participated in a national strike on October 23, expressing concerns about rising crime rates, including extortion and murders, and urging authorities to enhance public safety. Additionally, a 72-hour strike by some transportation workers on October 10 and a staggered national strike by Sutep teachers on October 16 displayed widespread unrest related to extortion in the transport sector and government inaction. Concurrently, Public Prosecutor’s Office workers went on a three-day strike demanding improved labor conditions.
Raids in September: Authorities in Peru raided properties linked to investigations of corruption and bribery, including the home of a prosecutor connected to allegations of receiving a bribe to release seized gold and the residence of a congresswoman under investigation for her alleged involvement in corruption in Huánuco. Additionally, police operations involved dismantling an illegal signal transmission network in Ancón prison and evicting street vendors in San Juan de Lurigancho. Police also forcibly entered a hotel room in Cusco where a congressman was found deceased, although this incident was not connected to broader criminal activity.
Lethal Violence in September: A deadly attack by illegal miners on Minera Poderosa in Pataz, La Libertad, resulted in one fatality and continued a violent trend that has claimed 18 lives over the past three years. In Callao, two minors were tragically shot dead in broad daylight amidst a state of emergency in several districts of Lima. An ambush outside Chincha Prison led to the death of a lawyer and injuries to a National Penitentiary Institute officer. Meanwhile, a shooting in San Juan de Lurigancho left two men dead and a woman injured, reflecting ongoing crime and violence in the Lima Metropolitan area.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Azerbaijan
For Azerbaijan, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in August: Political analyst Bahruz Samadov was detained on suspicion of illegal drug-related activities amid concerns about his potential flight risk. Colonel Rustam Mamedli faced charges of embezzlement and bribery related to fuel sales, while Col. Elmar Mamedov’s arrest was linked to a military criminal case. Multiple officials were also detained as part of a smuggling investigation targeting corruption in the customs department, and two individuals, Ershad Guluev and Sevinj Aslanova, were apprehended for fraudulently promising overseas jobs.
Censorship in July and August: Legal action by the Media Development Agency led to the termination of certain media operations in Azerbaijan due to registration issues, which raised concerns regarding media freedom. Foreign journalists were denied entry to an energy conference in Baku, indicating restrictions on media access. Additionally, the head of a media outlet was interrogated by Baku City Police, and an Azerbaijani journalist was barred from traveling, pointing to constraints on journalistic activities and freedom of movement. The RIA-Novosti website was briefly accessible in Azerbaijan before being blocked again, reflecting changing censorial measures against Russian media. In August, the Azerbaijani government intensified its crackdown on independent media, resulting in the arrests of journalists and civil society activists, with approximately 20 journalists imprisoned.
Defamation Cases in August: Court proceedings commenced against the Chairman of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party as he faced a defamation complaint by a former party member under Article 147. 1 of the Azerbaijani Criminal Code.
Disaster in August: Multiple incidents of mass food poisoning occurred in Azerbaijan, with 93 people hospitalized in the Ganja district after a memorial funeral ceremony and 55 individuals affected in the Gabalin district following a wedding celebration. Additionally, a mine explosion in the Lachin district resulted in medical evacuations. Earthquakes with magnitudes of 3. 8 and 3. 1 were recorded near Lenkoran Station and Shamah, with no reported damages.
Election Activity in September: Extraordinary parliamentary elections were held in Azerbaijan following the dissolution of the Milli Majlis, with notable voter turnout and international monitoring to ensure democratic standards. Exit polls from approximately 2,500 polling stations were published, providing early insights into the election results. Election authorities addressed complaints to ensure voting integrity and committed to investigating any reported issues, while international organizations acknowledged Azerbaijan’s efforts in organizing the elections.
Election Irregularities in September: The OSCE reported that Azerbaijan’s recent snap elections did not meet democratic standards, citing a restrictive environment with limited competition and political diversity. The Central Election Commission reviewed complaints about irregularities at polling stations, while My Voice election coalition observers recorded no serious violations. The CEC also addressed candidate complaints from specific electoral districts, but details on the impact of these irregularities remain limited.
Legal Actions in July: The European Court of Human Rights announced several decisions against Azerbaijan, involving issues related to property rights, freedom of movement, and fair trial rights. Rashid Beglaryan was sentenced to 15 years for genocide and terrorism against Azerbaijanis in Khojaly. The case against Ahmed Ahmedov for the murder of five family members in Baku commenced with an indictment. Additionally, the Committee to Protect Journalists reported on the extended prison terms of 11 journalists and the legal challenges faced by Abzas Media personnel, indicating ongoing issues within the media landscape in Azerbaijan.
Legal Changes in July: Several legislative changes were made in Azerbaijan, including the implementation of a new Competition Code aimed at enhancing market regulation and competition policy. Amendments to the Family Code were approved to update marriage procedures and restrictions, while changes to the Law on Civil Service were designed to streamline public sector operations. Excise duty amendments affected the taxation of alcohol and tobacco, and the retirement age for women was increased as part of broader pension reforms.
State of Emergency in August: In Azerbaijan, a state of emergency was declared in Baku and the Absheron Peninsula on August 7 and 8 due to hazardous north-west winds, impacting public safety and transportation. From August 27 to 30, a weather warning was issued for regions including Nakhchivan and Mingyachevir due to severe wind conditions, affecting daily life and infrastructure operations. Additionally, preparations for the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Baku led to traffic restrictions on September 7, and a planned traffic restriction took place in Khatain district of Baku on November 8 due to maintenance activities.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.