There is a generalized idea that countries like the US and in Europe
have a higher ability to address health related issues based on them
having a higher GDP. I would like to bring into question whether this
idea is statistically significant? As well as assess the overall changes
in affect of risk of disease across continents and within the US.
The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), coordinated by the
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), estimated the burden
of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for 204 countries and
territories and selected subnational locations.
To produce the estimated mean value, the Socio-demographic Index (SDI)
was used. SDI is a composite indicator of development status strongly
correlated with health outcomes. A location with an SDI of 0 would have
a theoretical minimum level of development relevant to health, while a
location with an SDI of 1 would have a theoretical maximum level.
This dataset provides SDI values for all estimated GBD 2021 locations
for 1950–2021.
Continents were defined based on 198 countries’ burden of disease and
year ID. An analysis of resistance to disease, the inverse of burden of
disease, revealed that Europe had significantly higher resistance to
disease and Africa had significantly lower resistance to disease as
compared to Asia, North American, South America, and Oceania which all
had similar values. All continents have an increasing resistance to
disease that changes at a consistent rate over 70 years and across all
continents.
Europe’s resistance to disease is in line with the idea that a higher
GDP will result in higher resistance to disease, North America is not
despite also having a high GDP.
In agreement with the previous graph, this table shows the most recent decade has the highest resistance to disease as compared across all continents. These values highlight the similarities in resistance to disease between Asia, North American, South America, and Oceania. In the next section, we focus on the United States.
| continent | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South America | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| Oceania | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| Europe | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| North America | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| Africa | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| Asia | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
Looking at the trend line of the United States resistance to disease
by year, it is consistent with the expected trend based on overall
continental resistance to disease. With the exception of the 1950-1960
range in which we see a significant decline in resistance to disease,
indicating an extreme burden of disease in that time range.
Given the background that this time frame included multiple polio
epidemics before the vaccine was developed in 1955, it is understandable
the decline in resistance to disease.
When looking at a map of resistance to disease in the United States, states that have been determined to have good healthcare and public health are also projected to have high resistance to burden of disease. Massechusets, Connecticut, and California have the highest estimated resistance to disease indicated by a deeper blue.
Analysis shows significant differences of values for resistance to disease across continents, but similar changes over a 70 year time frame. Analysis of the US shows an overall increase in resistance to disease with the exception of an about 10 year span that is likely due to epidemics that occurred within that time frame. Analysis of the US also shows that generally higher income states with better healthcare and public health have a higher resistance to disease.
Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network. Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) 1950–2021. Seattle, United States of America: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2024.
List of countries by continents. (2024, September 27). Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://simple.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_continents&oldid=9793469.