Ratio of rural portfolio/Gross Loan Portfolio (2015)

Urban/Rural with/without equity information

Urban/Rural with/out donation

Deposits to loans (2015, by region)

Return on Assets (2015, by region)

Return on equity (2015, by region)

PAR30 (2015, by region)

Cost per loan (2015, by region)

Percent of female borrowers (2015, by region)

Clients.below.poverty.line (2015, by region)

Gross Portfolio (Individual)/ (Gross Portfolio (Individual) + Gross Portfolio (Group) + Gross Portfolio (Village.Banking))(2015, by region)

Gross Portfolio (Enterprise)/ (Gross Portfolio (Enterprise) + Gross Portfolio (Household))

Gross Portfolio (Enterprise)/ (Gross Portfolio (Enterprise) + Gross Portfolio (Household))

Loan loss rate

Financial Performance of MFIs

Return on equity

Return on equity

## Weighted Difference-in-Differences with Propensity Score
## Matches created with 3 lags
## 
## Standard errors computed with 1000 Weighted bootstrap samples
## 
## Estimate of Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) by Period:
## $summary
##       estimate std.error       2.5%    97.5%
## t+0 -46.276928  56.11079 -173.12073 25.35694
## t+1  17.840665  16.79625   -3.20729 60.34526
## t+2 -14.394808  27.88005  -73.23724 38.13983
## t+3   2.836164  21.76704  -37.76329 47.74995
## 
## $lag
## [1] 3
## 
## $iterations
## [1] 1000
## 
## $qoi
## [1] "att"

Return on equity

## Weighted Difference-in-Differences with Propensity Score
## Matches created with 3 lags
## 
## Standard errors computed with 1000 Weighted bootstrap samples
## 
## Estimate of Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) by Period:
## $summary
##       estimate  std.error        2.5%    97.5%
## t+0   1.240169   6.788305   -8.488672 17.74975
## t+1   6.503312   8.767531   -6.121183 28.47467
## t+2   4.455293  11.173306  -12.941395 31.19931
## t+3 -97.013534 115.141505 -387.513127 23.24113
## 
## $lag
## [1] 3
## 
## $iterations
## [1] 1000
## 
## $qoi
## [1] "att"

PAR30

## Weighted Difference-in-Differences with Propensity Score
## Matches created with 3 lags
## 
## Standard errors computed with 1000 Weighted bootstrap samples
## 
## Estimate of Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) by Period:
## $summary
##       estimate std.error      2.5%     97.5%
## t+0 -0.2009073  1.032218 -2.227979  1.775073
## t+1  1.8705628  2.364586 -2.212133  6.786633
## t+2  8.7822865  6.602727 -1.502124 23.278948
## t+3  8.9742292  6.357613 -1.192432 23.329765
## 
## $lag
## [1] 3
## 
## $iterations
## [1] 1000
## 
## $qoi
## [1] "att"

Return on equity

Return on equity

## Weighted Difference-in-Differences with Propensity Score
## Matches created with 3 lags
## 
## Standard errors computed with 1000 Weighted bootstrap samples
## 
## Estimate of Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) by Period:
## $summary
##       estimate std.error       2.5%    97.5%
## t+0  -4.381521  10.37044  -19.61199 21.35503
## t+1 -27.120694  29.73958  -89.08632 20.81892
## t+2 -33.779354  34.86533 -106.60134 16.14771
## t+3 -78.371258  97.28228 -367.97994 21.87792
## 
## $lag
## [1] 3
## 
## $iterations
## [1] 1000
## 
## $qoi
## [1] "att"

PAR30

## Weighted Difference-in-Differences with Propensity Score
## Matches created with 3 lags
## 
## Standard errors computed with 1000 Weighted bootstrap samples
## 
## Estimate of Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) by Period:
## $summary
##       estimate std.error      2.5%     97.5%
## t+0 -0.2009073  1.028498 -2.268220  1.783861
## t+1  1.8705628  2.241359 -1.859366  6.733272
## t+2  8.7822865  6.574672 -1.582539 23.665384
## t+3  8.9742292  6.211125 -1.967031 21.226646
## 
## $lag
## [1] 3
## 
## $iterations
## [1] 1000
## 
## $qoi
## [1] "att"

Write-off ratio

## Weighted Difference-in-Differences with Propensity Score
## Matches created with 3 lags
## 
## Standard errors computed with 1000 Weighted bootstrap samples
## 
## Estimate of Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) by Period:
## $summary
##        estimate std.error      2.5%    97.5%
## t+0 -0.26586660 0.7384929 -1.767662 1.253248
## t+1  0.97751598 2.7010799 -3.633648 6.626379
## t+2 -0.03888599 2.5171844 -5.843995 3.576874
## t+3  1.52360566 3.4465106 -4.084763 8.975505
## 
## $lag
## [1] 3
## 
## $iterations
## [1] 1000
## 
## $qoi
## [1] "att"

Statistical models
  Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Model 8
rural_ratio 0.69 (0.85) -1.17 (7.75) -1.30 (0.53)* -1.36 (0.56)* -0.11 (0.15) -1.23 (1.91) 0.09 (0.35) -0.25 (0.25)
equity_donatedNot_Donated -0.63 (0.54) -0.91 (4.93) -0.01 (0.34) -0.13 (0.36) -0.07 (0.09) -0.47 (1.23) 0.55 (0.22)* 0.34 (0.16)*
Percent.of.female.borrowers 0.04 (0.01)** 0.37 (0.12)** 0.01 (0.01) -0.01 (0.01) -0.01 (0.00)*** -0.09 (0.03)** 0.01 (0.01) -0.00 (0.00)
individual_ratio 1.39 (0.75) 20.87 (6.88)** 0.97 (0.47)* 1.04 (0.50)* 0.07 (0.13) -1.31 (1.71) 1.34 (0.31)*** 1.05 (0.23)***
enterprise_ratio 1.97 (1.36) 21.16 (12.51) -0.10 (0.87) -0.24 (0.99) 0.01 (0.26) -2.96 (3.13) 0.87 (0.57) 1.28 (0.41)**
Clients.below.poverty.line 0.00 (0.01) -0.01 (0.08) 0.01 (0.01) 0.01 (0.01) -0.00 (0.00) 0.02 (0.02) 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 (0.00)
Deposits.to.loan 0.01 (0.01) 0.08 (0.06) -0.01 (0.00) -0.01 (0.00)* -0.00 (0.00)** 0.08 (0.02)*** 0.01 (0.00)* 0.01 (0.00)***
Y Return.on.assets Return.on.equity Write.off.ratio Write.off.ratio - Loan.loss.rate Loan.loss.rate PAR30 Net Operating Income Operating Expense
R2 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.11
Adj. R2 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.01 0.10 0.06 0.05 0.09
Num. obs. 492 494 501 485 485 513 435 515
***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05

Difference of summary statistics between rural and urban MFIs

Rural
(N=2987)
Urban
(N=2824)
P-value
Administrative.expense
Mean (SD) 1940000 (5650000) 32700000 (1470000000) 0.287
Median [Min, Max] 485000 [-1640000, 176000000] 685000 [-912000, 75100000000]
Average_loan_balance
Mean (SD) 1450 (9310) 554000 (29100000) 0.315
Median [Min, Max] 407 [0, 279000] 1070 [2.00, 1540000000]
Average_outstanding_balance_perGNI
Mean (SD) 65.0 (1050) 108 (664) 0.0665
Median [Min, Max] 21.1 [0, 55800] 32.0 [0.0300, 28500]
Cost.per.borrower
Mean (SD) 169 (738) 37600 (1840000) 0.314
Median [Min, Max] 83.0 [-493, 34400] 225 [0, 91000000]
Debt.to.equity.ratio
Mean (SD) 5.16 (35.3) 4.99 (33.6) 0.855
Median [Min, Max] 3.05 [-168, 1310] 2.99 [-336, 1440]
Deposits.to.loan
Mean (SD) 30.3 (99.0) 43.1 (130) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 3.35 [0, 4320] 2.25 [0, 5700]
Gross.Loan.Portfolio
Mean (SD) 64900000 (394000000) 1280000000 (63700000000) 0.31
Median [Min, Max] 8110000 [132, 14000000000] 9680000 [562, 3380000000000]
Gross.loan.portfolio.to.total.assets
Mean (SD) 85.9 (78.1) 78.5 (33.1) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 82.5 [0.420, 2240] 80.5 [1.29, 983]
Net.operating.income
Mean (SD) 1950000 (13100000) 7570000 (287000000) 0.313
Median [Min, Max] 195000 [-217000000, 251000000] 255000 [-3370000000, 14300000000]
Number_active_borrowers
Mean (SD) 137000 (548000) 66500 (280000) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 16200 [3.00, 8170000] 10300 [3.00, 5890000]
Number_loan_officer
Mean (SD) 381 (1610) 210 (696) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 65.0 [0, 55000] 42.0 [0, 14100]
Number_loans_outstanding
Mean (SD) 170000 (1070000) 73300 (311000) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 16800 [3.00, 48100000] 10700 [3.00, 5890000]
Operating.expense
Mean (SD) 5620000 (13900000) 78500000 (3520000000) 0.287
Median [Min, Max] 1470000 [-2590000, 244000000] 1930000 [-881000, 181000000000]
Percent.of.female.borrowers
Mean (SD) 69.4 (27.9) 58.7 (24.3) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 73.7 [0, 100] 55.3 [0, 100]
Portfolio.at.risk..30.days
Mean (SD) 6.72 (14.6) 7.71 (18.4) 0.0253
Median [Min, Max] 2.86 [0, 373] 4.13 [0, 711]
individual_ratio
Mean (SD) 0.579 (0.435) 0.762 (0.366) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 0.775 [0, 1.00] 1.00 [0, 1.00]
enterprise_ratio
Mean (SD) 0.828 (0.264) 0.794 (0.268) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 0.952 [0, 1.00] 0.912 [0, 1.00]
Loan.loss.rate
Mean (SD) 1.26 (5.47) 2.28 (21.2) 0.0196
Median [Min, Max] 0.180 [-65.1, 131] 0.620 [-28.8, 989]
Write.off.ratio
Mean (SD) 1.70 (5.21) 2.44 (8.13) <0.001
Median [Min, Max] 0.390 [0, 131] 1.00 [-10.8, 311]
diff_loss
Mean (SD) 0.333 (1.82) 0.0636 (20.2) 0.512
Median [Min, Max] 0 [-5.87, 65.1] 0.0100 [-989, 30.9]
Return.on.assets
Mean (SD) 1.92 (8.70) 1.36 (9.70) 0.0302
Median [Min, Max] 2.31 [-113, 142] 1.78 [-155, 45.3]
Return.on.equity
Mean (SD) 16.1 (618) -35.6 (2120) 0.242
Median [Min, Max] 9.61 [-13400, 27700] 7.85 [-106000, 4950]

PCA Analysis1 (2015)

PCA Analysis2 (2015)

PCA Analysis3 (all data)

PCA Analysis4 (all data)

Trend of the proportion of rural portfolio by countries since 2010

Factors that might affect the proportion of rural portfolio

Data Source: MIX, WDI (WB); Data: Since 2010, Around 4,200 observations of MFIs; Dependent variable: Proportion of rural portfolio

## Oneway (individual) effect Within Model
## 
## Call:
## plm(formula = rural_ratio ~ Agriculture..forestry..and.fishing + 
##     GDP + GDP.growth + Mobile.cellular.subscriptions + Urban.population.growth + 
##     Access.to.electricity..rural + Agricultural.land + Average.precipitation.in.depth + 
##     Crop.production.index + Employment.in.agriculture + Fertilizer.consumption + 
##     Forest.area + Life.expectancy.at.birth..total + Political.Stability.and.Absence.of.Violence.Terrorism..Estimate + 
##     Population.density + Rural.population + Number_loan_officer + 
##     Percent.of.female.borrowers, data = new_mix6, model = "within", 
##     index = c("Time.x", "Country.Code.x"))
## 
## Unbalanced Panel: n = 10, T = 49-784, N = 5284
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -2.49215 -0.71344  0.01200  0.64512  2.33117 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                                    Estimate
## Agriculture..forestry..and.fishing                               0.03576366
## GDP                                                             -0.05891002
## GDP.growth                                                       0.00070055
## Mobile.cellular.subscriptions                                    0.07942318
## Urban.population.growth                                          0.02112574
## Access.to.electricity..rural                                     0.19464463
## Agricultural.land                                                0.07425899
## Average.precipitation.in.depth                                   0.02738661
## Crop.production.index                                           -0.01416074
## Employment.in.agriculture                                       -0.00546732
## Fertilizer.consumption                                           0.04053409
## Forest.area                                                      0.06548738
## Life.expectancy.at.birth..total                                 -0.00958831
## Political.Stability.and.Absence.of.Violence.Terrorism..Estimate  0.04294165
## Population.density                                               0.12713711
## Rural.population                                                 0.41657972
## Number_loan_officer                                              0.00951772
## Percent.of.female.borrowers                                      0.03775701
##                                                                  Std. Error
## Agriculture..forestry..and.fishing                               0.02553586
## GDP                                                              0.01555467
## GDP.growth                                                       0.01426046
## Mobile.cellular.subscriptions                                    0.01981362
## Urban.population.growth                                          0.01899816
## Access.to.electricity..rural                                     0.02621790
## Agricultural.land                                                0.01992915
## Average.precipitation.in.depth                                   0.02608527
## Crop.production.index                                            0.01573718
## Employment.in.agriculture                                        0.02528999
## Fertilizer.consumption                                           0.01991238
## Forest.area                                                      0.02605674
## Life.expectancy.at.birth..total                                  0.02936669
## Political.Stability.and.Absence.of.Violence.Terrorism..Estimate  0.01862114
## Population.density                                               0.02078527
## Rural.population                                                 0.02542608
## Number_loan_officer                                              0.01229787
## Percent.of.female.borrowers                                      0.01457004
##                                                                 t-value
## Agriculture..forestry..and.fishing                               1.4005
## GDP                                                             -3.7873
## GDP.growth                                                       0.0491
## Mobile.cellular.subscriptions                                    4.0085
## Urban.population.growth                                          1.1120
## Access.to.electricity..rural                                     7.4241
## Agricultural.land                                                3.7261
## Average.precipitation.in.depth                                   1.0499
## Crop.production.index                                           -0.8998
## Employment.in.agriculture                                       -0.2162
## Fertilizer.consumption                                           2.0356
## Forest.area                                                      2.5133
## Life.expectancy.at.birth..total                                 -0.3265
## Political.Stability.and.Absence.of.Violence.Terrorism..Estimate  2.3061
## Population.density                                               6.1167
## Rural.population                                                16.3840
## Number_loan_officer                                              0.7739
## Percent.of.female.borrowers                                      2.5914
##                                                                  Pr(>|t|)    
## Agriculture..forestry..and.fishing                              0.1614147    
## GDP                                                             0.0001540 ***
## GDP.growth                                                      0.9608212    
## Mobile.cellular.subscriptions                                   6.195e-05 ***
## Urban.population.growth                                         0.2661938    
## Access.to.electricity..rural                                    1.317e-13 ***
## Agricultural.land                                               0.0001965 ***
## Average.precipitation.in.depth                                  0.2938178    
## Crop.production.index                                           0.3682537    
## Employment.in.agriculture                                       0.8288518    
## Fertilizer.consumption                                          0.0418383 *  
## Forest.area                                                     0.0119917 *  
## Life.expectancy.at.birth..total                                 0.7440568    
## Political.Stability.and.Absence.of.Violence.Terrorism..Estimate 0.0211455 *  
## Population.density                                              1.024e-09 ***
## Rural.population                                                < 2.2e-16 ***
## Number_loan_officer                                             0.4390057    
## Percent.of.female.borrowers                                     0.0095846 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Total Sum of Squares:    5181.2
## Residual Sum of Squares: 4198.9
## R-Squared:      0.18959
## Adj. R-Squared: 0.18543
## F-statistic: 68.3122 on 18 and 5256 DF, p-value: < 2.22e-16
Statistical models
  Model 1
Agriculture..forestry..and.fishing 0.04 (0.03)
GDP -0.06 (0.02)***
GDP.growth 0.00 (0.01)
Mobile.cellular.subscriptions 0.08 (0.02)***
Urban.population.growth 0.02 (0.02)
Access.to.electricity..rural 0.19 (0.03)***
Agricultural.land 0.07 (0.02)***
Average.precipitation.in.depth 0.03 (0.03)
Crop.production.index -0.01 (0.02)
Employment.in.agriculture -0.01 (0.03)
Fertilizer.consumption 0.04 (0.02)*
Forest.area 0.07 (0.03)*
Life.expectancy.at.birth..total -0.01 (0.03)
Political.Stability.and.Absence.of.Violence.Terrorism..Estimate 0.04 (0.02)*
Population.density 0.13 (0.02)***
Rural.population 0.42 (0.03)***
Number_loan_officer 0.01 (0.01)
Percent.of.female.borrowers 0.04 (0.01)**
R2 0.19
Adj. R2 0.19
Num. obs. 5284
***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05

Statistical models
  Model 1 Model 2
mobile_money -0.12 (0.03)*** -0.07 (0.03)*
Rural.population 0.47 (0.04)*** 0.37 (0.04)***
Mobile.cellular.subscriptions 0.15 (0.04)*** 0.17 (0.04)***
Cost.per.borrower   -0.44 (0.06)***
Number_loan_officer   0.03 (0.02)
Percent.of.female.borrowers   0.08 (0.04)*
R2 0.18 0.27
Adj. R2 0.17 0.26
Num. obs. 867 730
***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05
## Oneway (individual) effect Within Model
## 
## Call:
## plm(formula = poverty_6.85 ~ rural_ratio + mean_GDP + mean_Access.to.electricity..rural, 
##     data = a, model = "within", index = c("Time.x", "Level"))
## 
## Unbalanced Panel: n = 10, T = 1-45, N = 338
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min.   1st Qu.    Median   3rd Qu.      Max. 
## -44.48574 -13.23336  -0.49023   9.97149  44.59376 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                    Estimate Std. Error  t-value  Pr(>|t|)    
## rural_ratio                       33.937265   4.750283   7.1443 5.979e-12 ***
## mean_GDP                           1.252029   0.597780   2.0945   0.03699 *  
## mean_Access.to.electricity..rural -0.717276   0.039509 -18.1550 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Total Sum of Squares:    259450
## Residual Sum of Squares: 121180
## R-Squared:      0.53292
## Adj. R-Squared: 0.51567
## F-statistic: 123.603 on 3 and 325 DF, p-value: < 2.22e-16
## Oneway (individual) effect Within Model
## 
## Call:
## plm(formula = poverty_6.85 ~ rural_ratio + mean_RP, data = a, 
##     model = "within", index = c("Time.x", "Level"))
## 
## Unbalanced Panel: n = 10, T = 1-45, N = 344
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -54.6599 -13.9108   1.7556  13.5580  39.2322 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t-value  Pr(>|t|)    
## rural_ratio -21.351150   4.764391 -4.4814 1.022e-05 ***
## mean_RP       1.302420   0.059572 21.8630 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Total Sum of Squares:    272020
## Residual Sum of Squares: 108090
## R-Squared:      0.60265
## Adj. R-Squared: 0.58948
## F-statistic: 251.765 on 2 and 332 DF, p-value: < 2.22e-16
Statistical models
  Model 1 Model 2
rural_ratio 33.94 (4.75)*** -21.35 (4.76)***
mean_GDP 1.25 (0.60)*  
mean_Access.to.electricity..rural -0.72 (0.04)***  
mean_RP   1.30 (0.06)***
R2 0.53 0.60
Adj. R2 0.52 0.59
Num. obs. 338 344
***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05
## Oneway (individual) effect Within Model
## 
## Call:
## plm(formula = poverty_6.85 ~ rural_ratio + mean_RP, data = a, 
##     model = "within", index = c("Time.x", "Level"))
## 
## Unbalanced Panel: n = 10, T = 1-45, N = 344
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min.  1st Qu.   Median  3rd Qu.     Max. 
## -54.6599 -13.9108   1.7556  13.5580  39.2322 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t-value  Pr(>|t|)    
## rural_ratio -21.351150   4.764391 -4.4814 1.022e-05 ***
## mean_RP       1.302420   0.059572 21.8630 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Total Sum of Squares:    272020
## Residual Sum of Squares: 108090
## R-Squared:      0.60265
## Adj. R-Squared: 0.58948
## F-statistic: 251.765 on 2 and 332 DF, p-value: < 2.22e-16
## Oneway (individual) effect Within Model
## Instrumental variable estimation
## 
## Call:
## plm(formula = poverty_6.85 ~ rural_ratio + mean_RP | mean_RP + 
##     Mobile.cellular.subscriptions, data = a, model = "within", 
##     index = c("Time.x", "Level"))
## 
## Unbalanced Panel: n = 10, T = 1-45, N = 344
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min.   1st Qu.    Median   3rd Qu.      Max. 
## -77.22826 -14.61049  -0.31711  16.20499  89.76688 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error z-value  Pr(>|z|)    
## rural_ratio -103.75999   20.81848  -4.984 6.227e-07 ***
## mean_RP        1.73031    0.13141  13.168 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Total Sum of Squares:    272020
## Residual Sum of Squares: 205490
## R-Squared:      0.4219
## Adj. R-Squared: 0.40275
## Chisq: 279.133 on 2 DF, p-value: < 2.22e-16
Statistical models
  Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
rural_ratio 33.94 (4.75)*** -21.35 (4.76)*** -103.76 (20.82)***
mean_GDP 1.25 (0.60)*    
mean_Access.to.electricity..rural -0.72 (0.04)***    
mean_RP   1.30 (0.06)*** 1.73 (0.13)***
Model Panel Panel Panel+IV
R2 0.53 0.60 0.42
Adj. R2 0.52 0.59 0.40
Num. obs. 338 344 344
***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; *p < 0.05