Diffusion Index and graph in via a ggplot

# Diffusion Index and graph in via a ggplot 

              ts_info(UNRATE)
 The UNRATE series is a xts object with 1 variable and 179 observations
 Frequency: monthly 
 Start time: 2010-01-01 
 End time: 2024-11-01 
              ts_info(CES0500000003)
 The CES0500000003 series is a xts object with 1 variable and 179 observations
 Frequency: monthly 
 Start time: 2010-01-01 
 End time: 2024-11-01 
              ts_info(CPIAUCSL)
 The CPIAUCSL series is a xts object with 1 variable and 179 observations
 Frequency: monthly 
 Start time: 2010-01-01 
 End time: 2024-11-01 
unemp = UNRATE
avghr = CES0500000003
cpi = CPIAUCSL

              ts_info(unemp)
 The unemp series is a xts object with 1 variable and 179 observations
 Frequency: monthly 
 Start time: 2010-01-01 
 End time: 2024-11-01 
              ts_info(avghr)
 The avghr series is a xts object with 1 variable and 179 observations
 Frequency: monthly 
 Start time: 2010-01-01 
 End time: 2024-11-01 
              ts_info(cpi)        
 The cpi series is a xts object with 1 variable and 179 observations
 Frequency: monthly 
 Start time: 2010-01-01 
 End time: 2024-11-01 
        
              #covert to ts
        unemp <- unemp["2010-01-01/2024-10-01"] |> ts_ts() 
        avghr <- avghr["2010-01-01/2024-10-01"] |> ts_ts() 
        cpi <- cpi["2010-01-01/2024-10-01"] |> ts_ts() 
        #
            
            #assemble it
            mydata = cbind.data.frame(unemp,avghr,cpi)
            head(mydata,3)
            

                  #' Obtain first differences
                  mydf = mydata %>% 
                    mutate(unempD1 = tsibble::difference(unemp, differences = 1),
                           avghrD1 = tsibble::difference(avghr, differences = 1),
                          cpiD1 = tsibble::difference(cpi, differences = 1)) %>% 
                    dplyr::select(c(unempD1, avghrD1, cpiD1)) |> na.omit()

                  colSums(is.na(mydf))
unempD1 avghrD1   cpiD1 
      0       0       0 
                # Convert to either up or down
                head(mydf,3)
                mydf_df = ifelse(mydf > 0, 1, -1 )
                mydf_df
    unempD1 avghrD1 cpiD1
2        -1       1    -1
3         1       1     1
4        -1       1     1
5        -1       1    -1
6        -1      -1    -1
7        -1       1     1
8         1       1     1
9        -1       1     1
10       -1       1     1
11        1      -1     1
12       -1       1     1
13       -1       1     1
14       -1       1     1
15       -1      -1     1
16        1       1     1
17       -1       1     1
18        1       1    -1
19       -1       1     1
20       -1      -1     1
21       -1       1     1
22       -1       1     1
23       -1      -1     1
24       -1       1     1
25       -1       1     1
26       -1       1     1
27       -1       1     1
28       -1       1     1
29       -1       1    -1
30       -1       1    -1
31       -1       1     1
32       -1      -1     1
33       -1       1     1
34       -1      -1     1
35       -1       1    -1
36        1       1    -1
37        1       1     1
38       -1       1     1
39       -1       1    -1
40        1       1    -1
41       -1       1     1
42       -1       1     1
43       -1       1     1
44       -1       1     1
45       -1       1     1
46       -1       1     1
47       -1       1     1
48       -1       1     1
49       -1       1     1
50        1       1     1
51       -1      -1     1
52       -1       1     1
53        1       1     1
54       -1       1     1
55        1       1     1
56       -1       1    -1
57       -1       1     1
58       -1       1    -1
59        1       1    -1
60       -1      -1    -1
61        1       1    -1
62       -1       1     1
63       -1       1     1
64       -1       1     1
65        1       1     1
66       -1      -1     1
67       -1       1     1
68       -1       1    -1
69       -1       1    -1
70       -1       1     1
71        1       1     1
72       -1      -1    -1
73       -1       1    -1
74        1      -1    -1
75        1       1     1
76        1       1     1
77       -1       1     1
78        1       1     1
79       -1       1    -1
80        1       1     1
81        1       1     1
82       -1       1     1
83       -1       1     1
84       -1       1     1
85       -1       1     1
86       -1       1     1
87       -1       1    -1
88       -1       1     1
89       -1       1    -1
90       -1       1     1
91       -1       1     1
92        1       1     1
93       -1       1     1
94       -1      -1     1
95       -1       1     1
96       -1       1     1
97       -1       1     1
98        1       1     1
99       -1       1     1
100      -1       1     1
101      -1       1     1
102       1       1     1
103      -1       1     1
104      -1       1     1
105      -1       1     1
106       1       1     1
107      -1       1    -1
108       1       1     1
109       1       1    -1
110      -1       1     1
111      -1       1     1
112      -1      -1     1
113      -1       1     1
114      -1       1    -1
115       1       1     1
116      -1       1     1
117      -1       1     1
118       1       1     1
119      -1       1     1
120      -1       1     1
121      -1       1     1
122      -1       1     1
123       1       1    -1
124       1       1    -1
125      -1      -1    -1
126      -1      -1     1
127      -1      -1     1
128      -1       1     1
129      -1       1     1
130      -1       1     1
131      -1       1     1
132      -1       1     1
133      -1       1     1
134      -1       1     1
135      -1      -1     1
136      -1       1     1
137      -1       1     1
138       1       1     1
139      -1       1     1
140      -1       1     1
141      -1       1     1
142      -1       1     1
143      -1       1     1
144      -1       1     1
145       1       1     1
146      -1       1     1
147      -1       1     1
148       1       1     1
149      -1       1     1
150      -1       1     1
151      -1       1    -1
152       1       1     1
153      -1       1     1
154       1       1     1
155      -1       1     1
156      -1       1     1
157      -1       1     1
158       1       1     1
159      -1       1     1
160      -1       1     1
161       1       1     1
162      -1       1     1
163      -1       1     1
164       1       1     1
165      -1       1     1
166      -1       1     1
167      -1       1     1
168      -1       1     1
169      -1       1     1
170       1       1     1
171      -1       1     1
172       1       1     1
173       1       1     1
174       1       1    -1
175       1       1     1
176      -1       1     1
177      -1       1     1
178      -1       1     1
                    table(mydf_df)
mydf_df
 -1   1 
182 349 
                    
      #convert to up,down, or no change
      mydf_mat = apply(mydf, 2, sign) 
          table(mydf_mat)
mydf_mat
 -1   0   1 
132  50 349 
      mydf_mat
    unempD1 avghrD1 cpiD1
2         0       1    -1
3         1       1     1
4         0       1     1
5        -1       1    -1
6        -1       0    -1
7         0       1     1
8         1       1     1
9         0       1     1
10       -1       1     1
11        1      -1     1
12       -1       1     1
13       -1       1     1
14       -1       1     1
15        0       0     1
16        1       1     1
17       -1       1     1
18        1       1     0
19       -1       1     1
20        0      -1     1
21        0       1     1
22       -1       1     1
23       -1      -1     1
24       -1       1     1
25       -1       1     1
26        0       1     1
27       -1       1     1
28        0       1     1
29        0       1    -1
30        0       1    -1
31        0       1     1
32       -1      -1     1
33       -1       1     1
34        0      -1     1
35       -1       1    -1
36        1       1    -1
37        1       1     1
38       -1       1     1
39       -1       1    -1
40        1       1    -1
41       -1       1     1
42        0       1     1
43       -1       1     1
44       -1       1     1
45        0       1     1
46        0       1     1
47       -1       1     1
48       -1       1     1
49       -1       1     1
50        1       1     1
51        0      -1     1
52       -1       1     1
53        1       1     1
54       -1       1     1
55        1       1     1
56       -1       1    -1
57       -1       1     1
58       -1       1    -1
59        1       1    -1
60       -1      -1    -1
61        1       1    -1
62       -1       1     1
63       -1       1     1
64        0       1     1
65        1       1     1
66       -1       0     1
67       -1       1     1
68       -1       1    -1
69       -1       1    -1
70        0       1     1
71        1       1     1
72       -1      -1    -1
73       -1       1    -1
74        1       0    -1
75        1       1     1
76        1       1     1
77       -1       1     1
78        1       1     1
79       -1       1    -1
80        1       1     1
81        1       1     1
82       -1       1     1
83       -1       1     1
84        0       1     1
85        0       1     1
86       -1       1     1
87       -1       1    -1
88        0       1     1
89        0       1    -1
90       -1       1     1
91        0       1     1
92        1       1     1
93       -1       1     1
94       -1       0     1
95        0       1     1
96       -1       1     1
97       -1       1     1
98        1       1     1
99       -1       1     1
100       0       1     1
101      -1       1     1
102       1       1     1
103      -1       1     1
104       0       1     1
105      -1       1     1
106       1       1     1
107       0       1    -1
108       1       1     1
109       1       1    -1
110      -1       1     1
111       0       1     1
112      -1      -1     1
113      -1       1     1
114       0       1    -1
115       1       1     1
116      -1       1     1
117      -1       1     1
118       1       1     1
119       0       1     1
120       0       1     1
121       0       1     1
122      -1       1     1
123       1       1    -1
124       1       1    -1
125      -1      -1    -1
126      -1      -1     1
127      -1       0     1
128      -1       1     1
129      -1       1     1
130      -1       1     1
131      -1       1     1
132       0       1     1
133      -1       1     1
134      -1       1     1
135      -1       0     1
136       0       1     1
137      -1       1     1
138       1       1     1
139      -1       1     1
140      -1       1     1
141      -1       1     1
142      -1       1     1
143      -1       1     1
144      -1       1     1
145       1       1     1
146      -1       1     1
147      -1       1     1
148       1       1     1
149      -1       1     1
150       0       1     1
151      -1       1    -1
152       1       1     1
153      -1       1     1
154       1       1     1
155       0       1     1
156      -1       1     1
157      -1       1     1
158       1       1     1
159      -1       1     1
160      -1       1     1
161       1       1     1
162      -1       1     1
163      -1       1     1
164       1       1     1
165       0       1     1
166       0       1     1
167      -1       1     1
168       0       1     1
169       0       1     1
170       1       1     1
171      -1       1     1
172       1       1     1
173       1       1     1
174       1       1    -1
175       1       1     1
176      -1       1     1
177      -1       1     1
178       0       1     1
      

            pos = apply(mydf_mat, 1,  function(row) sum(row>0) ) # counts the positive
            neg = apply(mydf_mat, 1,  function(row) sum(row<0) ) # counts the negatives
            
                #pos = apply(mydf, 1,  function(row) sum(row>0) ) # counts the positive
                #neg = apply(mydf, 1,  function(row) sum(row<0) ) # counts the negatives
            
            tot = pos + neg
            (index = (pos/tot - neg/tot))
         2          3          4          5          6          7          8 
 0.0000000  1.0000000  1.0000000 -0.3333333 -1.0000000  1.0000000  1.0000000 
         9         10         11         12         13         14         15 
 1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000 
        16         17         18         19         20         21         22 
 1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333 
        23         24         25         26         27         28         29 
-0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.0000000 
        30         31         32         33         34         35         36 
 0.0000000  1.0000000 -0.3333333  0.3333333  0.0000000 -0.3333333  0.3333333 
        37         38         39         40         41         42         43 
 1.0000000  0.3333333 -0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333 
        44         45         46         47         48         49         50 
 0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000 
        51         52         53         54         55         56         57 
 0.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000 -0.3333333  0.3333333 
        58         59         60         61         62         63         64 
-0.3333333  0.3333333 -1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000 
        65         66         67         68         69         70         71 
 1.0000000  0.0000000  0.3333333 -0.3333333 -0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000 
        72         73         74         75         76         77         78 
-1.0000000 -0.3333333  0.0000000  1.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000 
        79         80         81         82         83         84         85 
-0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000 
        86         87         88         89         90         91         92 
 0.3333333 -0.3333333  1.0000000  0.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000 
        93         94         95         96         97         98         99 
 0.3333333  0.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333 
       100        101        102        103        104        105        106 
 1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000 
       107        108        109        110        111        112        113 
 0.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000 -0.3333333  0.3333333 
       114        115        116        117        118        119        120 
 0.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000  1.0000000 
       121        122        123        124        125        126        127 
 1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333 -1.0000000 -0.3333333  0.0000000 
       128        129        130        131        132        133        134 
 0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333 
       135        136        137        138        139        140        141 
 0.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333 
       142        143        144        145        146        147        148 
 0.3333333  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000 
       149        150        151        152        153        154        155 
 0.3333333  1.0000000 -0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000 
       156        157        158        159        160        161        162 
 0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333 
       163        164        165        166        167        168        169 
 0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000 
       170        171        172        173        174        175        176 
 1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  1.0000000  0.3333333  1.0000000  0.3333333 
       177        178 
 0.3333333  1.0000000 
                table(index)
index
                -1 -0.333333333333333                  0  0.333333333333333 
                 4                 15                 14                 77 
                 1 
                67 
                str(index)
 Named num [1:177] 0 1 1 -0.333 -1 ...
 - attr(*, "names")= chr [1:177] "2" "3" "4" "5" ...
                
Date = seq.Date(from = as.Date("2010-05-1"), length.out = 177, by = "month")
            length(Date)
[1] 177
            
                index_df <- data.frame(index = index, time = Date) 

                cbind(mydf_mat, pos, neg, tot, index)
    unempD1 avghrD1 cpiD1 pos neg tot      index
2         0       1    -1   1   1   2  0.0000000
3         1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
4         0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
5        -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
6        -1       0    -1   0   2   2 -1.0000000
7         0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
8         1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
9         0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
10       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
11        1      -1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
12       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
13       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
14       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
15        0       0     1   1   0   1  1.0000000
16        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
17       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
18        1       1     0   2   0   2  1.0000000
19       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
20        0      -1     1   1   1   2  0.0000000
21        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
22       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
23       -1      -1     1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
24       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
25       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
26        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
27       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
28        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
29        0       1    -1   1   1   2  0.0000000
30        0       1    -1   1   1   2  0.0000000
31        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
32       -1      -1     1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
33       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
34        0      -1     1   1   1   2  0.0000000
35       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
36        1       1    -1   2   1   3  0.3333333
37        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
38       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
39       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
40        1       1    -1   2   1   3  0.3333333
41       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
42        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
43       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
44       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
45        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
46        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
47       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
48       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
49       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
50        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
51        0      -1     1   1   1   2  0.0000000
52       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
53        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
54       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
55        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
56       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
57       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
58       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
59        1       1    -1   2   1   3  0.3333333
60       -1      -1    -1   0   3   3 -1.0000000
61        1       1    -1   2   1   3  0.3333333
62       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
63       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
64        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
65        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
66       -1       0     1   1   1   2  0.0000000
67       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
68       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
69       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
70        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
71        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
72       -1      -1    -1   0   3   3 -1.0000000
73       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
74        1       0    -1   1   1   2  0.0000000
75        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
76        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
77       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
78        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
79       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
80        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
81        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
82       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
83       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
84        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
85        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
86       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
87       -1       1    -1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
88        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
89        0       1    -1   1   1   2  0.0000000
90       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
91        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
92        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
93       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
94       -1       0     1   1   1   2  0.0000000
95        0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
96       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
97       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
98        1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
99       -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
100       0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
101      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
102       1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
103      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
104       0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
105      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
106       1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
107       0       1    -1   1   1   2  0.0000000
108       1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
109       1       1    -1   2   1   3  0.3333333
110      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
111       0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
112      -1      -1     1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
113      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
114       0       1    -1   1   1   2  0.0000000
115       1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
116      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
117      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
118       1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
119       0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
120       0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
121       0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
122      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
123       1       1    -1   2   1   3  0.3333333
124       1       1    -1   2   1   3  0.3333333
125      -1      -1    -1   0   3   3 -1.0000000
126      -1      -1     1   1   2   3 -0.3333333
127      -1       0     1   1   1   2  0.0000000
128      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
129      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
130      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
131      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
132       0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
133      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
134      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
135      -1       0     1   1   1   2  0.0000000
136       0       1     1   2   0   2  1.0000000
137      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
138       1       1     1   3   0   3  1.0000000
139      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
140      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
141      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
142      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
143      -1       1     1   2   1   3  0.3333333
 [ reached getOption("max.print") -- omitted 35 rows ]
ma_index = zoo::rollmean(index, 7, align = "right")
    length(index)
[1] 177

ggplot(index_df, aes(x = time, y=index) ) + 
                  geom_line(color = "darkblue") +    
                  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "darkred") + 
                  labs(title = "US Economy Diffusion Index", x = "Observation", y = "Index Value") + 
                  theme_minimal()

Diffusion Index and graph in via a ggplot with a built in smoother or you create the smoother.

#Diffusion Index and graph in via a ggplot with a built in smoother or you create the smoother.

g1 = ggplot(index_df, aes(x = time, y = index)) +
          geom_line(color = "darkblue")+
          geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "darkred")+
          geom_smooth(colour = "darkgreen") +
          labs( title = "US Economy Diffusion Index with Smoother") +
          xlab("Months") +
          ylab("Change")+
          theme(axis.line.x = element_line(size= 0.75, colour = "black"), 
                axis.line.y = element_line(size= 0.75, colour = "black"), 
                legend.position = "bottom", 
                legend.direction = "horizontal", element_blank()) +
          theme_tufte()

g1

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Diffusion Index (CFNAIDIFF)

cfnaid = CFNAIDIFF

ts_info(CFNAIDIFF)
 The CFNAIDIFF series is a xts object with 1 variable and 178 observations
 Frequency: monthly 
 Start time: 2010-01-01 
 End time: 2024-10-01 
#convert to ts
cfnaid <- cfnaid["2010-01-01/2024-10-01"] |> ts_ts()

length(cfnaid)
[1] 178
# Convert cfnaid to a data frame 
cfnaid_df <- data.frame(Date = Date, cfnaid = as.numeric(cfnaid[-c(1)]))
g2 = ggplot(cfnaid_df, aes(x = Date, y = cfnaid)) +
          geom_line(color = "orangered")+
          geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "darkred") +
          geom_smooth(colour = "darkgreen") +
          labs( title = "Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Diffusion Index with smoother") +
          xlab("Months") +
          ylab("Change")+
          theme(axis.line.x = element_line(size= 0.75, colour = "black"), 
                axis.line.y = element_line(size= 0.75, colour = "black"), 
                legend.position = "bottom", 
                legend.direction = "horizontal", element_blank()) +
          theme_tufte()

g2

grid.arrange(g1, g2, nrow = 2)

  1. calculating the correlation coefficient
correlation_df = cbind.data.frame(mydata,cfnaid)

correlation_coefficient = cor(correlation_df)
correlation_coefficient
            unemp       avghr         cpi      cfnaid
unemp   1.0000000 -0.59759267 -0.62428677  0.19477706
avghr  -0.5975927  1.00000000  0.98786874 -0.04384157
cpi    -0.6242868  0.98786874  1.00000000 -0.07225501
cfnaid  0.1947771 -0.04384157 -0.07225501  1.00000000
corrplot(correlation_coefficient, method = "color")

  1. a ggplot of the two series side by side.
combined_data <- data.frame(Date = Date, 
                            `US Economy Diffusion Index` = index, 
                            `Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index` = cfnaid[-1]) 

ggplot(combined_data) + 
  geom_line(aes(x = Date, y = US.Economy.Diffusion.Index, 
                color = "US Economy Diffusion Index")) + 
  geom_line(aes(x = Date, y = Chicago.Fed.National.Activity.Diffusion.Index, 
                color = "Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index")) + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "darkred") + 
  labs(title = "Comparison of US Economy Diffusion Index and Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index", 
       x = "Months", y = "Change", color =  "Index Type") + 
  scale_color_manual(values = c("US Economy Diffusion Index" = "darkblue", 
                                "Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index" = "orangered")) + 
  theme(axis.line.x = element_line(size = 0.75, colour = "black"), 
        axis.line.y = element_line(size = 0.75, colour = "black")) +
  theme_tufte()+
  theme(legend.position = "top",
        plot.title = element_text(size = 12))

NA
NA
NA
NA
---
title: "Fall24
Final_Diffusion Confusion
Econ-6635-07
Mohammed Faisal Ahmed
(Code)"
output: html_notebook
---

```{r message=FALSE, warning=FALSE, include=FALSE}
suppressWarnings({
  suppressPackageStartupMessages({
library(markovchain)
library(tidyverse)
library(quantmod)
library(tsbox)
library(vars)
library(tidyverse)
library(pdfetch)
library(lubridate)  
library(ggplot2)
library(forecast)
library(tsbox)
library(tsibble)
library(timetk)
library(TSstudio)
library(rio)
library(readxl)
library(tidyr)
library(stringr)
library(dygraphs)
library(quantmod) 
library(ggthemes)
library(gridExtra)
library(corrplot)})
})

getSymbols(c("UNRATE", "CES0500000003", "CPIAUCSL", "CFNAIDIFF"), 
                     freq = "monthly", 
                     src = "FRED", return.class = 'xts',
                     index.class  = 'Date',
                     from = "2010-01-01",
                     to = Sys.Date(),
                     periodicity = "monthly")

```

Diffusion Index and graph in via a ggplot 

```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
# Diffusion Index and graph in via a ggplot 

              ts_info(UNRATE)
              ts_info(CES0500000003)
              ts_info(CPIAUCSL)
unemp = UNRATE
avghr = CES0500000003
cpi = CPIAUCSL

              ts_info(unemp)
              ts_info(avghr)
              ts_info(cpi)        
        
              #covert to ts
        unemp <- unemp["2010-01-01/2024-10-01"] |> ts_ts() 
        avghr <- avghr["2010-01-01/2024-10-01"] |> ts_ts() 
        cpi <- cpi["2010-01-01/2024-10-01"] |> ts_ts() 
        #
            
            #assemble it
            mydata = cbind.data.frame(unemp,avghr,cpi)
            head(mydata,3)
            

                  #' Obtain first differences
                  mydf = mydata %>% 
                    mutate(unempD1 = tsibble::difference(unemp, differences = 1),
                           avghrD1 = tsibble::difference(avghr, differences = 1),
                          cpiD1 = tsibble::difference(cpi, differences = 1)) %>% 
                    dplyr::select(c(unempD1, avghrD1, cpiD1)) |> na.omit()

                  colSums(is.na(mydf))

                # Convert to either up or down
                head(mydf,3)
                mydf_df = ifelse(mydf > 0, 1, -1 )
                mydf_df
                    table(mydf_df)
                    
      #convert to up,down, or no change
      mydf_mat = apply(mydf, 2, sign) 
          table(mydf_mat)
      mydf_mat
      

            pos = apply(mydf_mat, 1,  function(row) sum(row>0) ) # counts the positive
            neg = apply(mydf_mat, 1,  function(row) sum(row<0) ) # counts the negatives
            
                #pos = apply(mydf, 1,  function(row) sum(row>0) ) # counts the positive
                #neg = apply(mydf, 1,  function(row) sum(row<0) ) # counts the negatives
            
            tot = pos + neg
            (index = (pos/tot - neg/tot))
                table(index)
                str(index)
                
Date = seq.Date(from = as.Date("2010-05-1"), length.out = 177, by = "month")
            length(Date)
            
                index_df <- data.frame(index = index, time = Date) 

                cbind(mydf_mat, pos, neg, tot, index)

ma_index = zoo::rollmean(index, 7, align = "right")
    length(index)
```


```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}

ggplot(index_df, aes(x = time, y=index) ) + 
                  geom_line(color = "darkblue") +    
                  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "darkred") + 
                  labs(title = "US Economy Diffusion Index", x = "Observation", y = "Index Value") + 
                  theme_minimal()
```

Diffusion Index and graph in via a ggplot with a built in smoother or you create the smoother.

```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
#Diffusion Index and graph in via a ggplot with a built in smoother or you create the smoother.

g1 = ggplot(index_df, aes(x = time, y = index)) +
          geom_line(color = "darkblue")+
          geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "darkred")+
          geom_smooth(colour = "darkgreen") +
          labs( title = "US Economy Diffusion Index with Smoother") +
          xlab("Months") +
          ylab("Change")+
          theme(axis.line.x = element_line(size= 0.75, colour = "black"), 
                axis.line.y = element_line(size= 0.75, colour = "black"), 
                legend.position = "bottom", 
                legend.direction = "horizontal", element_blank()) +
          theme_tufte()

g1
```

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Diffusion Index (CFNAIDIFF)

```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
cfnaid = CFNAIDIFF

ts_info(CFNAIDIFF)

#convert to ts
cfnaid <- cfnaid["2010-01-01/2024-10-01"] |> ts_ts()

length(cfnaid)

# Convert cfnaid to a data frame 
cfnaid_df <- data.frame(Date = Date, cfnaid = as.numeric(cfnaid[-c(1)]))
```


```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
g2 = ggplot(cfnaid_df, aes(x = Date, y = cfnaid)) +
          geom_line(color = "orangered")+
          geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "darkred") +
          geom_smooth(colour = "darkgreen") +
          labs( title = "Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Diffusion Index with smoother") +
          xlab("Months") +
          ylab("Change")+
          theme(axis.line.x = element_line(size= 0.75, colour = "black"), 
                axis.line.y = element_line(size= 0.75, colour = "black"), 
                legend.position = "bottom", 
                legend.direction = "horizontal", element_blank()) +
          theme_tufte()

g2
```

```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
grid.arrange(g1, g2, nrow = 2)
```

(i) calculating the correlation coefficient

```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
correlation_df = cbind.data.frame(mydata,cfnaid)

correlation_coefficient = cor(correlation_df)
```


```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
correlation_coefficient
```


```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
corrplot(correlation_coefficient, method = "color")

```

(ii) a ggplot of the two series side by side.

```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}
combined_data <- data.frame(Date = Date, 
                            `US Economy Diffusion Index` = index, 
                            `Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index` = cfnaid[-1]) 

```


```{r echo=TRUE, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE}

ggplot(combined_data) + 
  geom_line(aes(x = Date, y = US.Economy.Diffusion.Index, 
                color = "US Economy Diffusion Index")) + 
  geom_line(aes(x = Date, y = Chicago.Fed.National.Activity.Diffusion.Index, 
                color = "Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index")) + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "darkred") + 
  labs(title = "Comparison of US Economy Diffusion Index and Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index", 
       x = "Months", y = "Change", color =  "Index Type") + 
  scale_color_manual(values = c("US Economy Diffusion Index" = "darkblue", 
                                "Chicago Fed National Activity Diffusion Index" = "orangered")) + 
  theme(axis.line.x = element_line(size = 0.75, colour = "black"), 
        axis.line.y = element_line(size = 0.75, colour = "black")) +
  theme_tufte()+
  theme(legend.position = "top",
        plot.title = element_text(size = 12))



        
```