Market Indexes: Comparing Rates

Comparison of Performance Rates between Indexes

Published: 2024-12-12

About This Report

This report provides analyses of inflation rates, and growth rates across financial indexes, with the flexibility to explore publicly traded stocks and ETFs. It evaluates their historical performance over time, refining for accuracy of probable growth rates and inflation trends. In this report, the term “index” is used broadly and may interchangeably refer to a benchmark index (e.g., S&P 500), ETFs, mutual funds, or even collections of individual publicly traded stocks, such as Apple or Microsoft, representing specific market segments or investment strategies. I intend to expand the comparisons with large-cap companies and other ETFs, such as those within QQQ and the S&P 500 itself (e.g., Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, UnitedHealth Group, Amazon, Broadcom, and others), as well as additional ETFs.

Indexes serve as benchmarks for a variety of purposes, such as investment comparisons, policy valuation, and strategic financial planning. The report aims to assess the long-term viability and comparative performance of these indexes in the context of value generation, like variable annuities, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), structured notes, target-date funds, retirement savings plans (e.g., 401(k)s), and endowment policies. The S&P 500, QQQ, and BlackRock Endura is utilized as external indexes for an Indexed Universal Life (IUL) Insurance Policy product that’s been under review. I won’t delve into the origins of that decision or about the policy here; the product has its pros and cons—it is, after all, designed to be sold.

CPI

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is a measure that examines the average change in prices over time for a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households, such as food, clothing, and transportation. CPI is often used as an indicator of inflation, as it reflects how much the cost of living has increased or decreased. It is reported as a percentage, showing the relative price change from one period to another.

Inflation Targets

The historical inflation targets in the U.S. reflect the evolving priorities of monetary policy. From 1913 to the 1970s, the Federal Reserve did not have an explicit inflation target, focusing instead on financial stability and economic growth. In the 1979–1980s, under Paul Volcker, the Fed shifted to controlling inflation without a formal target, implicitly aiming for low inflation. During the 1990s–2011, global trends influenced the Fed to align informally with a 2% inflation target, though it remained unofficial. Finally, in 2012, the Federal Reserve formally adopted a 2% target, prioritizing price stability and maximum employment as part of its dual mandate. This evolution highlights the transition from reactive to proactive inflation management.

Sources:

• Matthew Wells (2004). “The Origins of the 2 Percent Inflation Target”. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2024/q1_q2_federal_reserve?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Adam Shapiro and Daniel J. Wilson. “The Evolution of the FOMC’s Explicit Inflation Target”. FRBSF Economic Letter 2019-12 (April 15, 2019). https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2019/04/evolution-of-fomc-explicit-inflation-target/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Historical Inflation Targets in the United States

Period	Inflation_Target	Policy_Focus	Source
1913–1970s	None	Financial stability and economic growth.	Federal Reserve Historical Overview
1979–1980s	Implicit (low inflation)	Price stability (Volcker’s anti-inflation focus).	Federal Reserve Monetary Policy History
1990s–2011	Implicit (~2%)	Informal alignment with global 2% targets.	Implicit trend in global monetary policy
2012–Present	Formal 2% Target	Price stability with a dual mandate.	Federal Reserve (2012 announcement)

Glossary

Name	Definition
Annual Inflation Rate	Also referred as “1-Year CAIR” for analytical purposes, this shows the inflation rate for each “1-Year” or “YoY” as a percentage, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers in the United States. It reflects the percentage change in CPI from December of the previous year to December of the indicated year. A positive rate indicates an increase in prices, while a negative rate (e.g., in 2009) shows deflation.
CAIR	Compound Average Inflation Rate. The average yearly inflation rate over the period, calculated as a mean inflation rate over a period if it had compounded anually. It provides an idea of the typical inflation rate experienced each year, smoothing out annual fluctuations and making it more accurate for comparisons across time periods. A 5-Year CAIR represents the annualized average rate of inflation over a five-year period, accounting for compounding; it reflects the inflation rate as if it were compounded each year over five years.
CIR	Cumulative Inflation Rate. The cumulative inflation rate over multiple periods, accounting for compounding. It measures the total percentage inflation from the initial to the final year in the series. It is the total increase in prices over a given period without averaging it annually. It’s the straightforward cumulative effect of inflation over the specified time. A 5-Year CIR represents the total percentage increase in an index or prices over a five-year period without averaging or compounding on an annual basis. it shows the cumulative inflation over the entire five years.
Close	The closing value of the Index on the Close Date. This represents the value of the index at the end of that specific period, giving a snapshot of the market’s performance.
Date	Specific Date when the Index is measured. Date varies by sources. Annual inflation rate data presented in this dataframe is the average percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all months within that specified year.
Target Inflation Rate	The Federal Reserve aims for a 2% inflation rate over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. This target is considered most consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability. For more see https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm. The 2% inflation rate became official target rate in 2012, but will be used as the target rate across all years in this report.

CPI IR

Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data presented here is sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Unless otherwise noted, the analysis begins with data from 1913. The “Annual Inflation Rates” (also referred to as the “1-Year CAIR”) is derived directly from the CPI database prior to any additional data processing. Each Annual Inflation Rates represents the average of the 12 monthly percentage changes (from January to December) for the given year. For more comprehensive details and additional rate information, please refer to the BLS website.

Data Source: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) via CPI BLS at https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0?years_option=all_years, filtered to 12-Month Percent Change > Annual Averages.

Annual Inflation Rates (1913-2023)

Date	1-Year CAIR	Date	1-Year CAIR
2023	4.10%	1967	3.10%
2022	8.00%	1966	2.90%
2021	4.70%	1965	1.60%
2020	1.20%	1964	1.30%
2019	1.80%	1963	1.30%
2018	2.40%	1962	1.00%
2017	2.10%	1961	1.00%
2016	1.30%	1960	1.70%
2015	0.10%	1959	0.70%
2014	1.60%	1958	2.80%
2013	1.50%	1957	3.30%
2012	2.10%	1956	1.50%
2011	3.20%	1955	-0.40%
2010	1.60%	1954	0.70%
2009	-0.40%	1953	0.80%
2008	3.80%	1952	1.90%
2007	2.80%	1951	7.90%
2006	3.20%	1950	1.30%
2005	3.40%	1949	-1.20%
2004	2.70%	1948	8.10%
2003	2.30%	1947	14.40%
2002	1.60%	1946	8.30%
2001	2.80%	1945	2.30%
2000	3.40%	1944	1.70%
1999	2.20%	1943	6.10%
1998	1.60%	1942	10.90%
1997	2.30%	1941	5.00%
1996	3.00%	1940	0.70%
1995	2.80%	1939	-1.40%
1994	2.60%	1938	-2.10%
1993	3.00%	1937	3.60%
1992	3.00%	1936	1.50%
1991	4.20%	1935	2.20%
1990	5.40%	1934	3.10%
1989	4.80%	1933	-5.10%
1988	4.10%	1932	-9.90%
1987	3.60%	1931	-9.00%
1986	1.90%	1930	-2.30%
1985	3.60%	1929	0.00%
1984	4.30%	1928	-1.70%
1983	3.20%	1927	-1.70%
1982	6.20%	1926	1.10%
1981	10.30%	1925	2.30%
1980	13.50%	1924	0.00%
1979	11.30%	1923	1.80%
1978	7.60%	1922	-6.10%
1977	6.50%	1921	-10.50%
1976	5.80%	1920	15.60%
1975	9.10%	1919	14.60%
1974	11.00%	1918	18.00%
1973	6.20%	1917	17.40%
1972	3.20%	1916	7.90%
1971	4.40%	1915	1.00%
1970	5.70%	1914	1.00%
1969	5.50%	1913	NA
1968	4.20%	NA	NA

Summary

Annual Inflation Rate Summary (1913-2023)

Statistic	Value	Definition
Count of Observations	110	Total number of data points collected over the specific period.
CAIR	3.16%	Compound Average Inflation Rate; mean inflation rate over a period if it had compounded anually.
Mean	3.27%	Reflects the general price level and overall inflation rate.
Median	2.75%	Middle value of the data when ordered chronologically; central tendency measure less affected by extreme values.
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	4.69%	The dispersion of values from the mean, indicating the volatility of price changes and economic stability.
Min CAIR Range (CAIR - SD)	-1.53%	Lower boundary of expected CPI range; lowest estimate of typical inflation rate considering normal fluctuations.
Max CAIR Range (CAIR + SD)	7.85%	Upper boundary of expected CPI range; highest estimate of typical inflation rate considering normal fluctuations.
Minimum	-10.5%	Lowest value; highlights periods of minimal inflation or deflationary trends.
Maximum	18%	Highest value; highlights periods of peak inflationary pressures.
Above 2.0 Target	60%	Percentage of periods where inflation exceeded the 2.0% target, indicating higher-than-desired inflation.
Below 2.0 Target	40%	Percentage of periods where inflation was below the 2.0% target, suggesting potential deflationary pressures or insufficient inflation.

The annual inflation rate (3.16%) is lower than mean inflation rate (3.27%), reflecting short-term volatility and inflation spikes. The annual inflation rate (3.16%) is higher than mean inflation rate (2.75%), indicating that sustained periods of below-median inflation exerted cumulative upward pressure on price levels. This relationship signals a distribution with notable extremes on the higher end (positive skewness) while emphasizing that the long-term compounded effect is more representative of the overall economic trend than either the mean or the median alone. The standard deviation of 4.69% reflects significant volatility, with inflation rates ranging from a deflationary low of -10.5% to a peak of18%, and an expected range of -1.53% to 7.85% when accounting for typical fluctuations. Notably, inflation exceeded the 2% target in 60% of the years, indicating inflationary pressures, while remaining below the target in 40% of the observations, signaling deflationary trends or weaker inflation.

The 3.16% CAIR from 1913 to 2023 reflects the influence of major historical events that caused significant inflation, including World Wars, the Great Depression, and the 1970s oil crises. In contrast, the 2.76% CAIR, measured since the 1990 enactment of the Implicit 2% Target, is notably lower. With the exception of the 2022 inflation rate of 8.0%, rates after 1990 have stayed within the expected range of -1.53% to 7.85%.

Graph

Over the past century, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has exhibited significant fluctuations, with notable peaks during the post-World War I era and the 1970s. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has experienced significant peaks due to various major events:

• World War I (1914–1918): The CPI surged to approximately 18% in 1918, driven by increased government spending and supply constraints during the war.
• World War II (1939–1945): Inflation rose due to heightened demand and production limitations, leading to price controls and rationing to manage the economy.
• 1970s Oil Crises: The 1973 and 1979 oil embargoes led to energy shortages and skyrocketing oil prices, causing inflation to peak around 14% in 1980.
• Early 1980s Recession: In response to high inflation, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates, leading to a recession but eventually stabilizing prices.
• COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2021): Supply chain disruptions and economic stimulus measures contributed to a significant rise in inflation, with the CPI reaching levels not seen in decades.

However, in recent decades, these inflationary peaks have become less pronounced, indicating a trend toward more stable inflation rates, showing a narrowing of CPI volatility.

CPI CAIR

Data

You’ve probably seen or heard the phrase, “If you had invested $1,000 in [Company/Stock Name] back in [Year], your investment would be worth [Current Value] today.” Or perhaps you’ve thought to yourself, “If I had… I would have…” This is the result of cumulative growth captured in a snapshot. The Cumulative Inflation Rate (CIR) represents the total percentage increase in prices over time horizons of 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, reflecting the long-term cumulative impact of inflation (e.g., a 30-year CIR of 110.76% in 2023).

In contrast, the Compound Average Inflation Rate (CAIR) represents the average annualized inflation rate over the same periods, smoothing short-term fluctuations (e.g., a 5-year CAIR of 3.93% in 2023). Compound averages allow us to study the annualized rate required to achieve the same total cumulative growth, providing a basis for making future projections grounded in past performance.

Cumulative Inflation Rates (1913-2023)

Date	1-Year CAIR	5-Year CIR	10-Year CIR	20-Year CIR	30-Year CIR
2023	4.10%	21.27%	30.62%	65.31%	110.76%
2022	8.00%	19.29%	27.36%	62.45%	108.53%
2021	4.70%	12.77%	20.40%	52.82%	98.87%
2020	1.20%	9.11%	18.68%	50.05%	97.92%
2019	1.80%	7.92%	19.15%	53.31%	106.14%
2018	2.40%	7.71%	16.57%	53.92%	112.21%
2017	2.10%	6.77%	18.16%	52.71%	115.74%
2016	1.30%	6.77%	18.97%	53.01%	118.91%
2015	0.10%	8.77%	21.21%	55.58%	120.20%
2014	1.60%	10.40%	25.20%	59.78%	127.90%
2013	1.50%	8.22%	26.56%	61.35%	133.96%
2012	2.10%	10.68%	27.55%	63.73%	137.88%
2011	3.20%	11.44%	26.93%	65.18%	147.43%
2010	1.60%	11.44%	26.44%	66.78%	164.45%
2009	-0.40%	13.41%	28.68%	73.02%	195.43%
2008	3.80%	16.94%	32.04%	82.05%	230.13%
2007	2.80%	15.25%	29.24%	82.57%	242.22%
2006	3.20%	13.90%	28.61%	84.00%	254.53%
2005	3.40%	13.46%	28.36%	81.68%	263.47%
2004	2.70%	13.46%	27.62%	82.03%	283.50%
2003	2.30%	12.91%	27.49%	84.86%	314.50%
2002	1.60%	12.14%	28.36%	86.49%	330.30%
2001	2.80%	12.91%	30.13%	94.93%	337.07%
2000	3.40%	13.13%	31.90%	109.16%	343.88%
1999	2.20%	12.47%	34.46%	129.59%	353.75%
1998	1.60%	12.91%	37.88%	150.03%	368.40%
1997	2.30%	14.47%	41.27%	164.79%	380.39%
1996	3.00%	15.25%	43.06%	175.67%	384.14%
1995	2.80%	16.60%	41.54%	183.16%	383.67%
1994	2.60%	19.54%	42.64%	200.51%	378.03%
1993	3.00%	22.11%	45.00%	225.12%	371.97%
1992	3.00%	23.41%	45.28%	235.22%	364.18%
1991	4.20%	24.13%	49.80%	235.87%	355.17%
1990	5.40%	21.39%	58.57%	236.51%	341.19%
1989	4.80%	19.32%	70.75%	237.47%	325.70%
1988	4.10%	18.75%	81.34%	239.72%	309.05%
1987	3.60%	17.72%	87.44%	240.05%	303.94%
1986	1.90%	20.68%	92.69%	238.41%	302.77%
1985	3.60%	30.62%	100.06%	241.73%	301.19%
1984	4.30%	43.11%	110.68%	235.13%	285.70%
1983	3.20%	52.71%	124.22%	225.49%	272.39%
1982	6.20%	59.22%	130.73%	219.50%	263.73%
1981	10.30%	59.67%	124.22%	203.86%	249.00%
1980	13.50%	53.16%	112.22%	178.24%	241.41%
1979	11.30%	47.22%	97.64%	149.31%	204.71%
1978	7.60%	46.82%	87.34%	125.57%	170.49%
1977	6.50%	44.91%	81.42%	115.50%	171.74%
1976	5.80%	40.42%	75.63%	109.03%	191.90%
1975	9.10%	38.56%	70.81%	100.53%	198.80%
1974	11.00%	34.25%	59.07%	83.07%	180.17%
1973	6.20%	27.59%	45.17%	66.08%	156.70%
1972	3.20%	25.19%	38.47%	57.64%	156.46%
1971	4.40%	25.07%	35.52%	55.65%	175.59%
1970	5.70%	23.27%	31.11%	60.87%	177.18%
1969	5.50%	18.49%	26.15%	54.17%	164.07%
1968	4.20%	13.77%	20.41%	44.38%	146.80%
1967	3.10%	10.61%	18.79%	49.79%	131.87%
1966	2.90%	8.36%	19.02%	66.20%	133.00%
1965	1.60%	6.35%	17.40%	74.93%	129.83%
1964	1.30%	6.46%	15.09%	76.13%	131.19%
1963	1.30%	5.83%	14.41%	76.83%	135.29%
1962	1.00%	7.40%	13.84%	85.21%	120.43%
1961	1.00%	9.84%	14.86%	103.36%	96.64%
1960	1.70%	10.38%	22.70%	111.41%	77.17%
1959	0.70%	8.11%	22.22%	109.34%	70.20%
1958	2.80%	8.11%	19.91%	104.97%	69.02%
1957	3.30%	6.00%	26.10%	95.20%	61.62%
1956	1.50%	4.57%	39.65%	95.77%	53.80%
1955	-0.40%	11.16%	49.00%	95.77%	53.19%
1954	0.70%	13.06%	53.04%	100.88%	57.34%
1953	0.80%	10.92%	54.56%	105.66%	56.25%
1952	1.90%	18.96%	62.69%	93.63%	57.80%
1951	7.90%	33.55%	77.06%	71.20%	45.41%
1950	1.30%	34.04%	72.30%	44.39%	20.61%
1949	-1.20%	35.37%	71.28%	39.26%	37.64%
1948	8.10%	39.34%	70.93%	40.95%	59.65%
1947	14.40%	36.76%	54.80%	28.17%	74.27%
1946	8.30%	32.58%	40.19%	10.13%	78.84%
1945	2.30%	28.54%	31.39%	2.81%	78.18%
1944	1.70%	26.53%	31.26%	2.81%	75.92%
1943	6.10%	22.67%	33.06%	1.09%	74.71%
1942	10.90%	13.19%	19.02%	-3.00%	NA
1941	5.00%	5.74%	-3.30%	-17.87%	NA
1940	0.70%	2.22%	-16.20%	-30.00%	NA
1939	-1.40%	3.74%	-18.69%	-19.64%	NA
1938	-2.10%	8.47%	-17.54%	-6.60%	NA
1937	3.60%	5.15%	-17.20%	12.58%	NA
1936	1.50%	-8.55%	-21.44%	27.57%	NA
1935	2.20%	-18.01%	-21.75%	35.62%	NA
1934	3.10%	-21.62%	-21.67%	34.03%	NA
1933	-5.10%	-23.98%	-24.03%	31.30%	NA
1932	-9.90%	-21.26%	-18.50%	NA	NA
1931	-9.00%	-14.09%	-15.07%	NA	NA
1930	-2.30%	-4.56%	-16.47%	NA	NA
1929	0.00%	-0.06%	-1.16%	NA	NA
1928	-1.70%	-0.06%	13.27%	NA	NA
1927	-1.70%	3.50%	35.97%	NA	NA
1926	1.10%	-1.14%	62.39%	NA	NA
1925	2.30%	-12.48%	73.31%	NA	NA
1924	0.00%	-1.10%	71.11%	NA	NA
1923	1.80%	13.34%	72.82%	NA	NA
1922	-6.10%	31.38%	NA	NA	NA
1921	-10.50%	64.25%	NA	NA	NA
1920	15.60%	98.02%	NA	NA	NA
1919	14.60%	73.01%	NA	NA	NA
1918	18.00%	52.48%	NA	NA	NA
1917	17.40%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1916	7.90%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1915	1.00%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1914	1.00%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1913	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Compound Average Inflation Rates (1913-2023)

Date	1-Year CAIR	5-Year CAIR	10-Year CAIR	20-Year CAIR	30-Year CAIR
2023	4.10%	3.93%	2.71%	2.55%	2.52%
2022	8.00%	3.59%	2.45%	2.46%	2.48%
2021	4.70%	2.43%	1.87%	2.14%	2.32%
2020	1.20%	1.76%	1.73%	2.05%	2.30%
2019	1.80%	1.54%	1.77%	2.16%	2.44%
2018	2.40%	1.50%	1.55%	2.18%	2.54%
2017	2.10%	1.32%	1.68%	2.14%	2.60%
2016	1.30%	1.32%	1.75%	2.15%	2.65%
2015	0.10%	1.70%	1.94%	2.23%	2.67%
2014	1.60%	2.00%	2.27%	2.37%	2.78%
2013	1.50%	1.59%	2.38%	2.42%	2.87%
2012	2.10%	2.05%	2.46%	2.50%	2.93%
2011	3.20%	2.19%	2.41%	2.54%	3.07%
2010	1.60%	2.19%	2.37%	2.59%	3.29%
2009	-0.40%	2.55%	2.55%	2.78%	3.68%
2008	3.80%	3.18%	2.82%	3.04%	4.06%
2007	2.80%	2.88%	2.60%	3.06%	4.19%
2006	3.20%	2.64%	2.55%	3.10%	4.31%
2005	3.40%	2.56%	2.53%	3.03%	4.40%
2004	2.70%	2.56%	2.47%	3.04%	4.58%
2003	2.30%	2.46%	2.46%	3.12%	4.85%
2002	1.60%	2.32%	2.53%	3.17%	4.98%
2001	2.80%	2.46%	2.67%	3.39%	5.04%
2000	3.40%	2.50%	2.81%	3.76%	5.09%
1999	2.20%	2.38%	3.00%	4.24%	5.17%
1998	1.60%	2.46%	3.26%	4.69%	5.28%
1997	2.30%	2.74%	3.52%	4.99%	5.37%
1996	3.00%	2.88%	3.65%	5.20%	5.40%
1995	2.80%	3.12%	3.53%	5.34%	5.39%
1994	2.60%	3.63%	3.62%	5.66%	5.35%
1993	3.00%	4.08%	3.79%	6.07%	5.31%
1992	3.00%	4.30%	3.81%	6.23%	5.25%
1991	4.20%	4.42%	4.12%	6.24%	5.18%
1990	5.40%	3.95%	4.72%	6.26%	5.07%
1989	4.80%	3.60%	5.50%	6.27%	4.95%
1988	4.10%	3.50%	6.13%	6.31%	4.81%
1987	3.60%	3.32%	6.48%	6.31%	4.76%
1986	1.90%	3.83%	6.78%	6.29%	4.75%
1985	3.60%	5.49%	7.18%	6.34%	4.74%
1984	4.30%	7.43%	7.74%	6.23%	4.60%
1983	3.20%	8.84%	8.41%	6.08%	4.48%
1982	6.20%	9.75%	8.72%	5.98%	4.40%
1981	10.30%	9.81%	8.41%	5.71%	4.25%
1980	13.50%	8.90%	7.81%	5.25%	4.18%
1979	11.30%	8.04%	7.05%	4.67%	3.78%
1978	7.60%	7.98%	6.48%	4.15%	3.37%
1977	6.50%	7.70%	6.14%	3.91%	3.39%
1976	5.80%	7.03%	5.79%	3.76%	3.64%
1975	9.10%	6.74%	5.50%	3.54%	3.72%
1974	11.00%	6.07%	4.75%	3.07%	3.49%
1973	6.20%	4.99%	3.80%	2.57%	3.19%
1972	3.20%	4.60%	3.31%	2.30%	3.19%
1971	4.40%	4.58%	3.09%	2.24%	3.44%
1970	5.70%	4.27%	2.75%	2.41%	3.46%
1969	5.50%	3.45%	2.35%	2.19%	3.29%
1968	4.20%	2.61%	1.87%	1.85%	3.06%
1967	3.10%	2.04%	1.74%	2.04%	2.84%
1966	2.90%	1.62%	1.76%	2.57%	2.86%
1965	1.60%	1.24%	1.62%	2.84%	2.81%
1964	1.30%	1.26%	1.42%	2.87%	2.83%
1963	1.30%	1.14%	1.35%	2.89%	2.89%
1962	1.00%	1.44%	1.30%	3.13%	2.67%
1961	1.00%	1.90%	1.39%	3.61%	2.28%
1960	1.70%	2.00%	2.07%	3.81%	1.92%
1959	0.70%	1.57%	2.03%	3.76%	1.79%
1958	2.80%	1.57%	1.83%	3.65%	1.76%
1957	3.30%	1.17%	2.35%	3.40%	1.61%
1956	1.50%	0.90%	3.40%	3.42%	1.45%
1955	-0.40%	2.14%	4.07%	3.42%	1.43%
1954	0.70%	2.48%	4.35%	3.55%	1.52%
1953	0.80%	2.10%	4.45%	3.67%	1.50%
1952	1.90%	3.53%	4.99%	3.36%	1.53%
1951	7.90%	5.96%	5.88%	2.72%	1.26%
1950	1.30%	6.04%	5.59%	1.85%	0.63%
1949	-1.20%	6.24%	5.53%	1.67%	1.07%
1948	8.10%	6.86%	5.51%	1.73%	1.57%
1947	14.40%	6.46%	4.47%	1.25%	1.87%
1946	8.30%	5.80%	3.44%	0.48%	1.96%
1945	2.30%	5.15%	2.77%	0.14%	1.94%
1944	1.70%	4.82%	2.76%	0.14%	1.90%
1943	6.10%	4.17%	2.90%	0.05%	1.88%
1942	10.90%	2.51%	1.76%	-0.15%	NA
1941	5.00%	1.12%	-0.34%	-0.98%	NA
1940	0.70%	0.44%	-1.75%	-1.77%	NA
1939	-1.40%	0.74%	-2.05%	-1.09%	NA
1938	-2.10%	1.64%	-1.91%	-0.34%	NA
1937	3.60%	1.01%	-1.87%	0.59%	NA
1936	1.50%	-1.77%	-2.38%	1.23%	NA
1935	2.20%	-3.89%	-2.42%	1.54%	NA
1934	3.10%	-4.76%	-2.41%	1.48%	NA
1933	-5.10%	-5.34%	-2.71%	1.37%	NA
1932	-9.90%	-4.67%	-2.03%	NA	NA
1931	-9.00%	-2.99%	-1.62%	NA	NA
1930	-2.30%	-0.93%	-1.78%	NA	NA
1929	0.00%	-0.01%	-0.12%	NA	NA
1928	-1.70%	-0.01%	1.25%	NA	NA
1927	-1.70%	0.69%	3.12%	NA	NA
1926	1.10%	-0.23%	4.97%	NA	NA
1925	2.30%	-2.63%	5.65%	NA	NA
1924	0.00%	-0.22%	5.52%	NA	NA
1923	1.80%	2.54%	5.62%	NA	NA
1922	-6.10%	5.61%	NA	NA	NA
1921	-10.50%	10.43%	NA	NA	NA
1920	15.60%	14.64%	NA	NA	NA
1919	14.60%	11.59%	NA	NA	NA
1918	18.00%	8.80%	NA	NA	NA
1917	17.40%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1916	7.90%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1915	1.00%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1914	1.00%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1913	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Values “NA” exists for years where there is insufficient amount of data. For example, since the dataset starts in 1913, there is not enough years in 1930 to calculate for a 30-Year CAIR.

Summary

Compound Average Summary (1913-2023)

Statistic	1-Year CAIR	5-Year CAIR	10-Year CAIR	20-Year CAIR	30-Year CAIR	Overall
Count of Observations	110	106	101	91	81	489
Mean	3.27%	3.17%	2.99%	3.08%	3.33%	3.16%
Median	2.75%	2.54%	2.75%	3.03%	3.19%	2.81%
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	4.69%	3.31%	2.59%	1.87%	1.31%	3.1%
Min CAIR Range (CAIR - SD)	-1.53%	-0.15%	0.57%	1.29%	1.85%	0.06%
Max CAIR Range (CAIR + SD)	7.85%	6.47%	5.75%	5.03%	4.47%	6.26%
Minimum	-10.5%	-5.34%	-2.71%	-1.77%	0.63%	-10.5%
Maximum	18%	14.64%	8.72%	6.34%	5.4%	18%
Above 2.0 Target	60%	65.09%	69.31%	79.12%	77.78%	69.53%
Below 2.0 Target	40%	33.02%	30.69%	20.88%	22.22%	30.06%

The overall mean annual inflation rate stands at 3.16%, with a standard deviation of 3.1%, indicating moderate volatility over the full dataset from 1913 thru 2023. Shorter periods, such as the 1-Year and 5-Year CAIRs, exhibit greater variability, with standard deviations of 4.69% and 3.31%, respectively, reflecting sensitivity to short-term economic fluctuations. Conversely, longer periods like the 20-Year and 30-Year CAIRs demonstrate significantly reduced volatility, with standard deviations of 1.87% and 1.31%, respectively, highlighting that extended durations offer a more stable and consistent view of inflation trends.

Overall values are calculated from all numerical data across the CAIR periods, providing a comprehensive representation of historical inflation trends. We can, therefore, use the Overall CAIR Mean (3.16%) as a baseline to evaluate inflationary pressures relative to historical norms. The overall standard deviation quantifies the typical range of inflation variability over time, providing a singular CAIR range (0.06%-6.26)% that capture the bounds of typical historical fluctuations.

Graph

These graphs illustrate the Rolling CAIR across varying time horizons (1, 5, 10, 20, and 30 years) over different historical periods, with a focus on the standard 2% inflation target. The green band represents overall range where inflation rates align with historical norms, while the red zones indicate periods of significant deviation. Shorter-term CAIRs (e.g., 1-Year) display higher volatility, often exceeding the target range, whereas longer-term CAIRs (e.g., 30-Year) are smoother and remain more stable within the green band, reflecting cumulative inflation effects and long-term stability.

All Periods

Compound Average Inflation Rates Across Periods

Short-Term

Compound Average Inflation Rates Across Short-Term Rolling Periods

Long-Term

Compound Average Inflation Rates Across Long-Term Rolling Periods

INDEXES

General Portfolio Types

Conservative Portfolios

Conservative investment strategies focus on capital preservation with annual growth targets of 3%-5%. Typically, these portfolios consist of 20%-40% equities, with the majority allocated to bonds or other income-generating assets. They are characterized by reduced volatility and limited drawdowns (~10%-20%), making them suitable for risk-averse individuals or those nearing retirement. For more on constructing conservative portfolios, see Vanguard’s Asset Allocation Guide (https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/education/model-portfolio-allocation).

Moderate Portfolios

Moderate portfolios typically target annual growth rates of 5%-7%, balancing risk and return. These portfolios often allocate 60% to stocks, such as the S&P 500, and 40% to fixed-income assets like bonds. The historical performance of moderate portfolios provides stable, inflation-beating returns with lower volatility than aggressive strategies, making them ideal for investors seeking steady growth without high exposure to market swings. The concept aligns with insights provided by Morningstar’s Portfolio Analysis (https://www.morningstar.com/products/portfolio-analysis).

Aggressive Portfolios

Aggressive portfolios aim for annual growth rates of 10%-12% and are heavily weighted in equities, such as growth stocks, small-cap stocks, and emerging markets. While these portfolios often outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500 during bull markets, they carry significant volatility, with potential drawdowns of ~50% during downturns. These strategies are ideal for long-term investors willing to withstand fluctuations. Learn more about growth-focused investing through Investopedia’s Aggressive Growth Strategies (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/aggressiveinvestmentstrategy.asp).

Inflation to S&P 500

The S&P 500 does not adjust for inflation, meaning its performance reflects nominal returns. Inflation-adjusted (real) returns, which subtract inflation rates (e.g., ~2%-3%), provide a clearer picture of purchasing power. On average, the S&P 500 is widely accepted to deliver ~6%-7% real annual returns after accounting for inflation. For historical insights on inflation-adjusted returns, the Shiller CAPE Ratio dataset (https://shillerdata.com/) is a valuable resource. This dataset aligns the S&P 500’s nominal prices with their real, inflation-adjusted counterparts, offering insights into long-term market valuations. Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a CPI Inflation Calculator (https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm), which allows users to calculate the buying power of the dollar between different dates, facilitating a better understanding of inflation’s impact over time.

Conclusion

Investment strategies are aligned to each individual goals and risk tolerances. Moderate portfolios balance growth and risk, conservative strategies prioritize stability, and aggressive approaches focus on high growth. Understanding inflation’s impact on nominal returns is critical for evaluating real investment performance. For additional analysis tools and historical data, consider reviewing Morningstar, Vanguard, and the Shiller CAPE Ratio.

Preferred Targets

To effectively compare indexes over time, it’s essential to account for inflation rates. I’ve set Subjective Target rates using the calculated overall inflation rate (3.16%) and the assumed portfolio growth rates. A higher inflation rate as a target serves as a conservative buffer against inflationary volatility, aiding in the selection of stocks or indexes that perform well in preserving purchasing power during periods of elevated inflation. Monitoring performance against these benchmarks helps narrow down which investment or index provides better inflation-adjusted outcomes. To Ekko words once said, “It’s not enough to give people what they need to survive; you have to give them what they need to live.”

Growth Rate Targets

Target Type	Target Rate	Definition
Inflation	3.16%	Overall, Average Inflation Rate to stay afloat.
Conservative	6.16%	3% Growth Rate minimum, including inflation.
Moderate	8.16%	5% Growth Rate minimum, including inflation
Aggressive	13.16%	10% Growth Rate minimum, including inflation.

Glossary

Name	Definition
CAGR	Compound Average Growth Rate. The average yearly growth rate over the period, calculated as a mean growth rate over a period if it had compounded anually. It provides an idea of the typical growth rate experienced each year, smoothing out annual fluctuations and making it more accurate for comparisons across time periods. A 5-Year CAGR represents the annualized average rate of growth over a five-year period, accounting for compounding; it reflects the growth rate as if it were compounded each year over five years.
CGR	Cumulative Growth Rate. The cumulative growth rate over multiple periods, accounting for compounding. It measures the total percentage growth from the initial to the final year in the series. It is the total increase in prices over a given period without averaging it annually. It’s the straightforward cumulative effect of growth over the specified time. A 5-Year CGR represents the total percentage increase in an index or prices over a five-year period without averaging or compounding on an annual basis. it shows the cumulative growth over the entire five years.
Close	The closing value of the Index on the Close Date. This represents the value of the index at the end of that specific period, giving a snapshot of the market’s performance.
Date	Specific Date when the Index is measured. Date varies by sources.

S&P 500

The S&P 500, short for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and commonly known by its ticker symbol SPX, is a widely recognized benchmark that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It represents a broad spectrum of industries, including technology, healthcare, finance, and energy, and is often used as a gauge of overall market health and economic performance. The index is weighted by market capitalization, meaning companies with larger market values have a greater impact on its performance. As a key indicator for investors, it reflects the growth and volatility of the U.S. stock market and serves as a baseline for measuring investment returns across a variety of portfolios.

S&P 500 GR

Data

The S&P 500 data presented here, sourced from Multpl, spans from the year 1900 onward. Multpl is a financial data platform that provides historical and current metrics for the S&P 500, including prices, price-to-earnings ratios, and inflation-adjusted values, offering investors insights into market trends over time. Each “Close” (Closing Price) represents the average of each month’s closing prices; for example, the price for January 1, 2024, reflects the average of all January closing prices. By cross-referencing the January 1, 2024, monthly close from Multpl with the average of all January 2024 closing prices from Webull Trading Platform (an unrelated platform), we can assume these databases are accurate and consistent with other major financial data sources.

Data Source: S&P 500 Index - SPX Historical Chart | Multpl via https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month

S&P 500 Yearly Performance (1900-2024)

Date	Close	1-Year CAGR	Date	Close	1-Year CAGR
2024-12-11	6,103.04	27.03%	1962-01-01	69.07	15.66%
2024-01-01	4,804.49	21.31%	1961-01-01	59.72	2.91%
2023-01-01	3,960.66	-13.41%	1960-01-01	58.03	4.33%
2022-01-01	4,573.82	20.56%	1959-01-01	55.62	35.26%
2021-01-01	3,793.75	15.73%	1958-01-01	41.12	-9.49%
2020-01-01	3,278.20	25.73%	1957-01-01	45.43	2.90%
2019-01-01	2,607.39	-6.54%	1956-01-01	44.15	24.02%
2018-01-01	2,789.80	22.62%	1955-01-01	35.60	39.83%
2017-01-01	2,275.12	18.58%	1954-01-01	25.46	-2.75%
2016-01-01	1,918.60	-5.40%	1953-01-01	26.18	8.23%
2015-01-01	2,028.18	11.29%	1952-01-01	24.19	14.05%
2014-01-01	1,822.36	23.10%	1951-01-01	21.21	25.65%
2013-01-01	1,480.40	13.83%	1950-01-01	16.88	9.90%
2012-01-01	1,300.58	1.40%	1949-01-01	15.36	3.57%
2011-01-01	1,282.62	14.15%	1948-01-01	14.83	-2.50%
2010-01-01	1,123.58	29.81%	1947-01-01	15.21	-15.59%
2009-01-01	865.58	-37.22%	1946-01-01	18.02	33.58%
2008-01-01	1,378.76	-3.19%	1945-01-01	13.49	13.84%
2007-01-01	1,424.16	11.37%	1944-01-01	11.85	17.44%
2006-01-01	1,278.73	8.24%	1943-01-01	10.09	12.99%
2005-01-01	1,181.41	4.32%	1942-01-01	8.93	-15.36%
2004-01-01	1,132.52	26.42%	1941-01-01	10.55	-14.23%
2003-01-01	895.84	-21.43%	1940-01-01	12.30	-1.60%
2002-01-01	1,140.21	-14.63%	1939-01-01	12.50	10.52%
2001-01-01	1,335.63	-6.31%	1938-01-01	11.31	-35.70%
2000-01-01	1,425.59	14.16%	1937-01-01	17.59	27.83%
1999-01-01	1,248.77	29.63%	1936-01-01	13.76	48.60%
1998-01-01	963.36	25.73%	1935-01-01	9.26	-12.14%
1997-01-01	766.22	24.71%	1934-01-01	10.54	48.66%
1996-01-01	614.42	32.06%	1933-01-01	7.09	-14.58%
1995-01-01	465.25	-1.64%	1932-01-01	8.30	-48.06%
1994-01-01	472.99	8.68%	1931-01-01	15.98	-26.39%
1993-01-01	435.23	4.60%	1930-01-01	21.71	-12.67%
1992-01-01	416.08	27.83%	1929-01-01	24.86	41.81%
1991-01-01	325.49	-4.26%	1928-01-01	17.53	30.82%
1990-01-01	339.97	19.12%	1927-01-01	13.40	5.93%
1989-01-01	285.40	13.93%	1926-01-01	12.65	19.57%
1988-01-01	250.50	-5.29%	1925-01-01	10.58	19.82%
1987-01-01	264.50	27.04%	1924-01-01	8.83	-0.79%
1986-01-01	208.20	21.33%	1923-01-01	8.90	21.92%
1985-01-01	171.60	3.12%	1922-01-01	7.30	2.67%
1984-01-01	166.40	15.32%	1921-01-01	7.11	-19.48%
1983-01-01	144.30	23.02%	1920-01-01	8.83	12.48%
1982-01-01	117.30	-11.80%	1919-01-01	7.85	8.88%
1981-01-01	133.00	19.93%	1918-01-01	7.21	-24.66%
1980-01-01	110.90	11.22%	1917-01-01	9.57	2.57%
1979-01-01	99.71	10.48%	1916-01-01	9.33	24.73%
1978-01-01	90.25	-13.05%	1915-01-01	7.48	-10.63%
1977-01-01	103.80	7.16%	1914-01-01	8.37	-10.00%
1976-01-01	96.86	33.49%	1913-01-01	9.30	1.97%
1975-01-01	72.56	-24.50%	1912-01-01	9.12	-1.62%
1974-01-01	96.11	-18.83%	1911-01-01	9.27	-8.04%
1973-01-01	118.40	14.62%	1910-01-01	10.08	11.26%
1972-01-01	103.30	10.49%	1909-01-01	9.06	32.26%
1971-01-01	93.49	3.52%	1908-01-01	6.85	-28.35%
1970-01-01	90.31	-11.46%	1907-01-01	9.56	-3.14%
1969-01-01	102.00	7.32%	1906-01-01	9.87	17.08%
1968-01-01	95.04	12.54%	1905-01-01	8.43	26.20%
1967-01-01	84.45	-9.50%	1904-01-01	6.68	-21.04%
1966-01-01	93.32	8.36%	1903-01-01	8.46	4.19%
1965-01-01	86.12	12.65%	1902-01-01	8.12	14.85%
1964-01-01	76.45	17.51%	1901-01-01	7.07	15.90%
1963-01-01	65.06	-5.81%	1900-01-01	6.10	NA

Summary

Annual Growth Rate Summary (1900-2024)

Statistic	Value	Definition
Count of Observations	124	Total number of data points collected over the specific period.
CAGR	5.53%	Compound Average Growth Rate; mean growth rate over a period if it had compounded anually.
Mean	7.17%	Reflects the general price level and overall growth rate.
Median	9.39%	Middle value of the data when ordered chronologically; central tendency measure less affected by extreme values.
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	18.13%	The dispersion of values from the mean, indicating the volatility of price changes and economic stability.
Min CAGR Range (CAGR - SD)	-12.6%	Lower boundary of expected S&P 500 range; lowest estimate of typical growth rate considering normal fluctuations.
Max CAGR Range (CAGR + SD)	23.66%	Upper boundary of expected S&P 500 range; highest estimate of typical growth rate considering normal fluctuations.
Minimum	-48.06%	Lowest growth rate.
Maximum	48.66%	Highest growth rate.
Percent Above Inflation Target	61.29%	Percentage of values above the inflation target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Conservative Target	55.65%	Percentage of values above the conservative target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Moderate Target	54.03%	Percentage of values above the moderate target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Aggressive Target	40.32%	Percentage of values above the aggressive target specified in Preferred Targets section.

The S&P 500’s Index exhibits a baseline CAGR at 5.53%, lower than the mean growth rate of 7.17%, reflecting the impact of short-term volatility and growth spikes. The median return of 9.39% indicates that more than half of the observed years experienced returns above the mean. The relationship between the CAGR and the median growth rate suggests that sustained periods of above-median growth have exerted cumulative upward pressure on overall price levels. This relationship highlights a distribution with notable extremes on the higher end, reflecting positive skewness. This positive skewness implies that while more than half of the observed years experienced returns above the mean, downturns can be severe. However, the market has historically provided substantial upside potential. Additionally, the fact that 61.29% of the years exceeded the inflation target reinforces the S&P 500’s effectiveness as a long-term hedge against inflation.

The standard deviation of 18.13% underscores significant volatility, a common feature of equity markets. The highly volatile range of annual returns, spanning from -48.06% to 48.66%, illustrates a highly volatile market environment, partly due to its composition, with the potential for both extreme gains and losses.

For the S&P 500 to be considered a high-performing and resilient long-term investment, it would be ideal to exceed the aggressive target (e.g., 10% annualized returns, accounting for higher inflation-adjusted performance expectations) in at least 40%-50% of the years. This range reflects the potential for strong upside in many years while balancing the understanding that markets do experience downturns. The fact that 40.32% of the years exceeded the aggressive target suggests that while not consistent, the S&P 500 has historically provided robust growth over the long term, making it a viable investment for those with a higher risk tolerance.

Graph

S&P 500 CAGR

Data

Compound Average Growth Rates (1900-2024)

Date	Close	1-Year CAGR	5-Year CAGR	10-Year CAGR	20-Year CAGR	30-Year CAGR
2024-12-11	6,103.04	27.03%	13.24%	11.65%	8.56%	8.96%
2024-01-01	4,804.49	21.31%	13.00%	10.18%	7.49%	8.03%
2023-01-01	3,960.66	-13.41%	7.26%	10.34%	7.72%	7.64%
2022-01-01	4,573.82	20.56%	14.99%	13.40%	7.19%	8.32%
2021-01-01	3,793.75	15.73%	14.61%	11.45%	5.36%	8.53%
2020-01-01	3,278.20	25.73%	10.08%	11.30%	4.25%	7.85%
2019-01-01	2,607.39	-6.54%	7.43%	11.66%	3.75%	7.65%
2018-01-01	2,789.80	22.62%	13.51%	7.30%	5.46%	8.37%
2017-01-01	2,275.12	18.58%	11.83%	4.80%	5.59%	7.44%
2016-01-01	1,918.60	-5.40%	8.39%	4.14%	5.86%	7.68%
2015-01-01	2,028.18	11.29%	12.54%	5.55%	7.64%	8.58%
2014-01-01	1,822.36	23.10%	16.06%	4.87%	6.98%	8.31%
2013-01-01	1,480.40	13.83%	1.43%	5.15%	6.31%	8.07%
2012-01-01	1,300.58	1.40%	-1.80%	1.32%	5.86%	8.35%
2011-01-01	1,282.62	14.15%	0.06%	-0.40%	7.10%	7.85%
2010-01-01	1,123.58	29.81%	-1.00%	-2.35%	6.16%	8.02%
2009-01-01	865.58	-37.22%	-5.23%	-3.60%	5.70%	7.47%
2008-01-01	1,378.76	-3.19%	9.01%	3.65%	8.90%	9.51%
2007-01-01	1,424.16	11.37%	4.55%	6.39%	8.78%	9.12%
2006-01-01	1,278.73	8.24%	-0.87%	7.60%	9.50%	8.98%
2005-01-01	1,181.41	4.32%	-3.69%	9.77%	10.13%	9.75%
2004-01-01	1,132.52	26.42%	-1.94%	9.12%	10.06%	8.57%
2003-01-01	895.84	-21.43%	-1.44%	7.49%	9.56%	6.98%
2002-01-01	1,140.21	-14.63%	8.27%	10.61%	12.04%	8.33%
2001-01-01	1,335.63	-6.31%	16.80%	15.16%	12.23%	9.27%
2000-01-01	1,425.59	14.16%	25.10%	15.41%	13.62%	9.63%
1999-01-01	1,248.77	29.63%	21.43%	15.91%	13.47%	8.71%
1998-01-01	963.36	25.73%	17.22%	14.42%	12.57%	8.03%
1997-01-01	766.22	24.71%	12.99%	11.22%	10.51%	7.63%
1996-01-01	614.42	32.06%	13.55%	11.43%	9.68%	6.48%
1995-01-01	465.25	-1.64%	6.48%	10.49%	9.74%	5.78%
1994-01-01	472.99	8.68%	10.63%	11.01%	8.29%	6.26%
1993-01-01	435.23	4.60%	11.68%	11.67%	6.73%	6.54%
1992-01-01	416.08	27.83%	9.48%	13.50%	7.21%	6.17%
1991-01-01	325.49	-4.26%	9.35%	9.36%	6.44%	5.82%
1990-01-01	339.97	19.12%	14.65%	11.85%	6.85%	6.07%
1989-01-01	285.40	13.93%	11.39%	11.09%	5.28%	5.60%
1988-01-01	250.50	-5.29%	11.66%	10.75%	4.97%	6.21%
1987-01-01	264.50	27.04%	17.66%	9.81%	5.87%	6.05%
1986-01-01	208.20	21.33%	9.38%	7.95%	4.09%	5.31%
1985-01-01	171.60	3.12%	9.12%	8.99%	3.51%	5.38%
1984-01-01	166.40	15.32%	10.79%	5.64%	3.97%	6.46%
1983-01-01	144.30	23.02%	9.84%	2.00%	4.06%	5.85%
1982-01-01	117.30	-11.80%	2.48%	1.28%	2.68%	5.40%
1981-01-01	133.00	19.93%	6.55%	3.59%	4.08%	6.31%
1980-01-01	110.90	11.22%	8.85%	2.08%	3.29%	6.48%
1979-01-01	99.71	10.48%	0.74%	-0.23%	2.96%	6.43%
1978-01-01	90.25	-13.05%	-5.28%	-0.52%	4.01%	6.20%
1977-01-01	103.80	7.16%	0.10%	2.08%	4.22%	6.61%
1976-01-01	96.86	33.49%	0.71%	0.37%	4.01%	5.77%
1975-01-01	72.56	-24.50%	-4.28%	-1.70%	3.62%	5.77%
1974-01-01	96.11	-18.83%	-1.18%	2.31%	6.87%	7.23%
1973-01-01	118.40	14.62%	4.49%	6.17%	7.84%	8.55%
1972-01-01	103.30	10.49%	4.11%	4.11%	7.53%	8.50%
1971-01-01	93.49	3.52%	0.04%	4.58%	7.70%	7.54%
1970-01-01	90.31	-11.46%	0.95%	4.52%	8.75%	6.87%
1969-01-01	102.00	7.32%	5.94%	6.25%	9.93%	7.25%
1968-01-01	95.04	12.54%	7.87%	8.74%	9.73%	7.35%
1967-01-01	84.45	-9.50%	4.10%	6.40%	8.95%	5.37%
1966-01-01	93.32	8.36%	9.34%	7.77%	8.57%	6.59%
1965-01-01	86.12	12.65%	8.22%	9.24%	9.71%	7.72%
1964-01-01	76.45	17.51%	6.57%	11.62%	9.77%	6.83%
1963-01-01	65.06	-5.81%	9.61%	9.53%	9.77%	7.67%
1962-01-01	69.07	15.66%	8.74%	11.06%	10.77%	7.32%
1961-01-01	59.72	2.91%	6.23%	10.91%	9.05%	4.49%
1960-01-01	58.03	4.33%	10.27%	13.14%	8.07%	3.33%
1959-01-01	55.62	35.26%	16.92%	13.73%	7.75%	2.72%
1958-01-01	41.12	-9.49%	9.45%	10.74%	6.67%	2.88%
1957-01-01	45.43	2.90%	13.43%	11.56%	4.86%	4.15%
1956-01-01	44.15	24.02%	15.79%	9.37%	6.00%	4.25%
1955-01-01	35.60	39.83%	16.10%	10.19%	6.97%	4.13%
1954-01-01	25.46	-2.75%	10.64%	7.95%	4.51%	3.59%
1953-01-01	26.18	8.23%	12.04%	10.00%	6.75%	3.66%
1952-01-01	24.19	14.05%	9.72%	10.48%	5.49%	4.07%
1951-01-01	21.21	25.65%	3.31%	7.23%	1.43%	3.71%
1950-01-01	16.88	9.90%	4.59%	3.22%	-1.25%	2.18%
1949-01-01	15.36	3.57%	5.33%	2.08%	-2.38%	2.26%
1948-01-01	14.83	-2.50%	8.01%	2.75%	-0.83%	2.43%
1947-01-01	15.21	-15.59%	11.24%	-1.44%	0.64%	1.56%
1946-01-01	18.02	33.58%	11.30%	2.73%	1.78%	2.22%
1945-01-01	13.49	13.84%	1.86%	3.83%	1.22%	1.99%
1944-01-01	11.85	17.44%	-1.06%	1.18%	1.48%	1.17%
1943-01-01	10.09	12.99%	-2.26%	3.59%	0.63%	0.27%
1942-01-01	8.93	-15.36%	-12.68%	0.73%	1.01%	-0.07%
1941-01-01	10.55	-14.23%	-5.17%	-4.07%	1.99%	0.43%
1940-01-01	12.30	-1.60%	5.84%	-5.52%	1.67%	0.67%
1939-01-01	12.50	10.52%	3.47%	-6.64%	2.35%	1.08%
1938-01-01	11.31	-35.70%	9.79%	-4.29%	2.28%	1.69%
1937-01-01	17.59	27.83%	16.21%	2.76%	3.09%	2.05%
1936-01-01	13.76	48.60%	-2.95%	0.84%	1.96%	1.11%
1935-01-01	9.26	-12.14%	-15.67%	-1.32%	1.07%	0.31%
1934-01-01	10.54	48.66%	-15.77%	1.79%	1.16%	1.53%
1933-01-01	7.09	-14.58%	-16.56%	-2.25%	-1.35%	-0.59%
1932-01-01	8.30	-48.06%	-9.14%	1.29%	-0.47%	0.07%
1931-01-01	15.98	-26.39%	4.78%	8.44%	2.76%	2.76%
1930-01-01	21.71	-12.67%	15.46%	9.41%	3.91%	4.32%
1929-01-01	24.86	41.81%	23.00%	12.22%	5.18%	NA
1928-01-01	17.53	30.82%	14.52%	9.29%	4.81%	NA
1927-01-01	13.40	5.93%	12.92%	3.42%	1.70%	NA
1926-01-01	12.65	19.57%	12.21%	3.09%	1.25%	NA
1925-01-01	10.58	19.82%	3.68%	3.53%	1.14%	NA
1924-01-01	8.83	-0.79%	2.38%	0.54%	1.40%	NA
1923-01-01	8.90	21.92%	4.30%	-0.44%	0.25%	NA
1922-01-01	7.30	2.67%	-5.27%	-2.20%	-0.53%	NA
1921-01-01	7.11	-19.48%	-5.29%	-2.62%	0.03%	NA
1920-01-01	8.83	12.48%	3.37%	-1.32%	1.87%	NA
1919-01-01	7.85	8.88%	-1.27%	-1.42%	NA	NA
1918-01-01	7.21	-24.66%	-4.96%	0.51%	NA	NA
1917-01-01	9.57	2.57%	0.97%	0.01%	NA	NA
1916-01-01	9.33	24.73%	0.13%	-0.56%	NA	NA
1915-01-01	7.48	-10.63%	-5.79%	-1.19%	NA	NA
1914-01-01	8.37	-10.00%	-1.57%	2.28%	NA	NA
1913-01-01	9.30	1.97%	6.31%	0.95%	NA	NA
1912-01-01	9.12	-1.62%	-0.94%	1.17%	NA	NA
1911-01-01	9.27	-8.04%	-1.25%	2.75%	NA	NA
1910-01-01	10.08	11.26%	3.64%	5.15%	NA	NA
1909-01-01	9.06	32.26%	6.28%	NA	NA	NA
1908-01-01	6.85	-28.35%	-4.13%	NA	NA	NA
1907-01-01	9.56	-3.14%	3.32%	NA	NA	NA
1906-01-01	9.87	17.08%	6.90%	NA	NA	NA
1905-01-01	8.43	26.20%	6.68%	NA	NA	NA
1904-01-01	6.68	-21.04%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1903-01-01	8.46	4.19%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1902-01-01	8.12	14.85%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1901-01-01	7.07	15.90%	NA	NA	NA	NA
1900-01-01	6.10	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Summary

Compound Average Growth Rates (1900-2024)

Statistic	1-Year CAGR	5-Year CAGR	10-Year CAGR	20-Year CAGR	30-Year CAGR	Overall
Count of Observations	124	120	115	105	95	559
Mean	7.17%	5.71%	5.45%	5.42%	5.59%	5.9%
Median	9.39%	6.52%	5.15%	5.49%	6.26%	6.21%
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	18.13%	7.88%	5.31%	3.62%	2.75%	9.78%
Min CAGR Range (CAGR - SD)	-12.6%	-2.35%	0.22%	1.91%	2.78%	-4.25%
Max CAGR Range (CAGR + SD)	23.66%	13.41%	10.84%	9.15%	8.28%	15.31%
Minimum	-48.06%	-16.56%	-6.64%	-2.38%	-0.59%	-48.06%
Maximum	48.66%	25.1%	15.91%	13.62%	9.75%	48.66%
Percent Above Inflation Target	65.32%	68.33%	71.3%	76.19%	85.26%	66.91%
Percent Above Conservative Target	56.45%	55.83%	50.43%	54.29%	66.32%	50.81%
Percent Above Moderate Target	55.65%	46.67%	43.48%	34.29%	37.89%	36.49%
Percent Above Aggressive Target	43.55%	20.83%	7.83%	4.76%	0%	13.95%

1900-2024 Summary: The 1-Year CAGR exhibits the highest mean return at 7.17%, and the greatest volatility with a a standard deviation of 18.13%. As the investment horizon extends to 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, the mean returns decrease, ranging from 5.71% to 5.59%, while volatility diminishes, with standard deviations dropping from 7.88% to 2.75%. This trend indicates that longer investment periods tend to offer more stable returns. Furthermore, the percentage of periods exceeding the inflation target increases with longer durations, from 65.32% in the 1-Year CAGR to 85.26% in the 30-Year CAGR, underscoring S&P 500’s effectiveness as a hedge against inflation over extended timeframes. With an overall percentage of 13.95% exceeding the aggressive target (10% annualized returns), S&P 500 appears, over this time period, to be a less suitable option for a high-returning long-term investment.

Graph

All Periods

Compound Average Growth Rates Across Periods

Short-Term

Compound Average Growth Rates Across Short-Term Rolling Periods

Long-Term

Compound Average Growth Rates Across Long-Term Rolling Periods

QQQ

The Invesco QQQ Trust, commonly known by its ticker symbol QQQ, is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index. This index comprises 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, predominantly featuring firms in the technology sector, but also including companies from consumer services, healthcare, and industrials. Due to its focus on high-growth industries, QQQ is often used by investors to gain exposure to leading tech companies and to capitalize on the performance of the broader technology market.

Invesco Ltd. is a global independent investment management firm headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. Established in 1978, the company offers a diverse range of investment products and services, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and retirement plans, catering to individual investors, financial professionals, and institutions. Operating under brand names such as Invesco, Invesco Perpetual, and PowerShares, Invesco manages assets across various asset classes, investment styles, and geographies. Visit Invesco at https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about-invesco.html.

QQQ GR

Data

The QQQ data presented here, sourced from Investing.com, spans from December 31, 1999, onward. Investing.com is a comprehensive financial platform that offers real-time data, quotes, charts, and financial news across global markets. Each “Close” represents the closing price for the day prior, or the end of the prior year. For example, the price for January 1, 2024, reflects the December 31, 2023, end-of-year closing price.

Data Source: Invesco QQQ Index - QQQ Historical Chart | Via https://www.investing.com/etfs/powershares-qqqq-historical-data. The Actual Close Price is the day prior Close Date of the preceding month (if Date is 11/01/2024, QQQ Data represents 10/31/2024 Close). Price on date may differ between databases by +/-1%.

QQQ Yearly Performance (2000-2024)

Date	Close	1-Year CAGR	Date	Close	1-Year CAGR
2024-12-11	529.92	29.40%	2012-01-01	55.57	2.51%
2024-01-01	409.52	53.87%	2011-01-01	54.21	19.04%
2023-01-01	266.14	-33.07%	2010-01-01	45.54	53.85%
2022-01-01	397.64	26.81%	2009-01-01	29.60	-41.94%
2021-01-01	313.58	47.57%	2008-01-01	50.98	18.67%
2020-01-01	212.50	37.83%	2007-01-01	42.96	6.81%
2019-01-01	154.18	-0.96%	2006-01-01	40.22	1.23%
2018-01-01	155.68	31.46%	2005-01-01	39.73	9.48%
2017-01-01	118.42	5.92%	2004-01-01	36.29	49.59%
2016-01-01	111.80	8.33%	2003-01-01	24.26	-37.36%
2015-01-01	103.20	17.88%	2002-01-01	38.73	-33.34%
2014-01-01	87.55	35.05%	2001-01-01	58.10	-36.12%
2013-01-01	64.83	16.66%	2000-01-01	90.95	NA

Summary

Annual Growth Rate Summary (2000-2024)

Statistic	Value	Definition
Count of Observations	24	Total number of data points collected over the specific period.
CAGR	6.47%	Compound Average Growth Rate; mean growth rate over a period if it had compounded anually.
Mean	10.82%	Reflects the general price level and overall growth rate.
Median	13.07%	Middle value of the data when ordered chronologically; central tendency measure less affected by extreme values.
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	29.71%	The dispersion of values from the mean, indicating the volatility of price changes and economic stability.
Min CAGR Range (CAGR - SD)	-23.24%	Lower boundary of expected QQQ range; lowest estimate of typical growth rate considering normal fluctuations.
Max CAGR Range (CAGR + SD)	36.18%	Upper boundary of expected QQQ range; highest estimate of typical growth rate considering normal fluctuations.
Minimum	-41.94%	Lowest growth rate.
Maximum	53.87%	Highest growth rate.
Percent Above Inflation Target	66.67%	Percentage of values above the inflation target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Conservative Target	62.5%	Percentage of values above the conservative target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Moderate Target	58.33%	Percentage of values above the moderate target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Aggressive Target	50%	Percentage of values above the aggressive target specified in Preferred Targets section.

The QQQ’s Index exhibits a conservative CAGR at 6.47%, lower than the mean growth rate of 10.82%, reflecting the impact of short-term volatility and growth spikes. The median return of 13.07% indicates that more than half of the observed years experienced returns above the mean. The relationship between the CAGR and the median growth rate suggests that sustained periods of above-median growth have exerted cumulative upward pressure on overall price levels. This relationship highlights a distribution with notable extremes on the higher end, reflecting positive skewness. This positive skewness implies that while more than half of the observed years experienced returns above the mean, downturns can be severe. However, the market has historically provided substantial upside potential. Additionally, the fact that 66.67% of the years exceeded the inflation target reinforces the QQQ’s effectiveness as a long-term hedge against inflation.

The standard deviation of 29.71% indicates extreme volatility, reflecting substantial fluctuations in equity markets. The notable range of annual returns, spanning from -41.94% to 53.87%, highlights notable market variability, partly due to its composition, reflecting both opportunities and risks.

For the QQQ to be considered a high-performing and resilient long-term investment, it would be ideal to exceed the aggressive target (e.g., 10% annualized returns, accounting for higher inflation-adjusted performance expectations) in at least 40%-50% of the years. This range reflects the potential for strong upside in many years while balancing the understanding that markets do experience downturns. The fact that 50% of the years exceeded the aggressive target suggests that while not consistent, the QQQ has historically provided robust growth over the long term, making it a viable investment for those with a higher risk tolerance.

Graph

QQQ CAGR

Data

Due to QQQ’s inception in March 1999, there is insufficient data to calculate the 30-year CAGRs.

Compound Average Growth Rates (2000-2024)

Date	Close	1-Year CAGR	5-Year CAGR	10-Year CAGR	20-Year CAGR	30-Year CAGR
2024-12-11	529.92	29.40%	20.05%	17.77%	13.83%	NA
2024-01-01	409.52	53.87%	21.58%	16.68%	12.88%	NA
2023-01-01	266.14	-33.07%	11.32%	15.17%	12.72%	NA
2022-01-01	397.64	26.81%	27.41%	21.75%	12.35%	NA
2021-01-01	313.58	47.57%	22.91%	19.19%	8.79%	NA
2020-01-01	212.50	37.83%	15.54%	16.65%	4.33%	NA
2019-01-01	154.18	-0.96%	11.98%	17.94%	NA	NA
2018-01-01	155.68	31.46%	19.15%	11.81%	NA	NA
2017-01-01	118.42	5.92%	16.34%	10.67%	NA	NA
2016-01-01	111.80	8.33%	15.58%	10.76%	NA	NA
2015-01-01	103.20	17.88%	17.78%	10.02%	NA	NA
2014-01-01	87.55	35.05%	24.22%	9.21%	NA	NA
2013-01-01	64.83	16.66%	4.92%	10.33%	NA	NA
2012-01-01	55.57	2.51%	5.28%	3.68%	NA	NA
2011-01-01	54.21	19.04%	6.15%	-0.69%	NA	NA
2010-01-01	45.54	53.85%	2.77%	-6.68%	NA	NA
2009-01-01	29.60	-41.94%	-3.99%	NA	NA	NA
2008-01-01	50.98	18.67%	16.01%	NA	NA	NA
2007-01-01	42.96	6.81%	2.09%	NA	NA	NA
2006-01-01	40.22	1.23%	-7.09%	NA	NA	NA
2005-01-01	39.73	9.48%	-15.26%	NA	NA	NA
2004-01-01	36.29	49.59%	NA	NA	NA	NA
2003-01-01	24.26	-37.36%	NA	NA	NA	NA
2002-01-01	38.73	-33.34%	NA	NA	NA	NA
2001-01-01	58.10	-36.12%	NA	NA	NA	NA
2000-01-01	90.95	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Summary

Compound Average Growth Rates (2000-2024)

Statistic	1-Year CAGR	5-Year CAGR	10-Year CAGR	20-Year CAGR	30-Year CAGR	Overall
Count of Observations	24	20	15	5	NA	64
Mean	10.82%	10.73%	11.1%	10.21%	NA	10.81%
Median	13.07%	13.76%	10.76%	12.35%	NA	11.89%
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	29.71%	11.21%	7.66%	3.69%	NA	19.34%
Min CAGR Range (CAGR - SD)	-23.24%	-4.74%	-1.19%	2.78%	NA	-12.87%
Max CAGR Range (CAGR + SD)	36.18%	17.68%	14.13%	10.16%	NA	25.81%
Minimum	-41.94%	-15.26%	-6.68%	4.33%	NA	-41.94%
Maximum	53.87%	27.41%	21.75%	12.88%	NA	53.87%
Percent Above Inflation Target	70.83%	85%	86.67%	100%	NA	76.56%
Percent Above Conservative Target	66.67%	70%	80%	80%	NA	67.19%
Percent Above Moderate Target	58.33%	60%	80%	80%	NA	65.62%
Percent Above Aggressive Target	50%	50%	40%	60%	NA	43.75%

2000-2024 Summary: The 1-Year CAGR exhibits the mean return at 10.82%, and the greatest volatility with a standard deviation of 29.71%. As the investment horizon extends to 5, 10, and 20 years, the mean returns decrease, ranging from 10.73% to 10.21%, while volatility diminishes, with standard deviations dropping from 11.21% to 3.69%. This trend indicates that longer investment periods tend to offer more stable returns. Furthermore, the percentage of periods exceeding the inflation target increases with longer durations, from 70.83% in the 1-Year CAGR to 100% in the 20-Year CAGR, underscoring QQQ’s effectiveness as a hedge against inflation over extended timeframes. With an overall percentage of 43.75% exceeding the aggressive target (10% annualized returns), QQQ has, over this time period, demonstrated itself as a viable option for a high-returning long-term investment.

Graph

All Periods

Compound Average Growth Rates Across Periods

Short-Term

Compound Average Growth Rates Across Short-Term Rolling Periods

Long-Term

Compound Average Growth Rates Across Long-Term Rolling Periods

BLACKROCK

BlackRock, Inc. is an American multinational investment management corporation headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1988, it has grown to become the world’s largest asset manager, with approximately $11.5 trillion in assets under management as of October 2024. BlackRock offers a diverse range of investment products, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) under the iShares brand, and alternative investments. The firm serves a broad clientele, encompassing institutional investors, financial professionals, and individual investors worldwide. BlackRock is also known for its Aladdin platform, a comprehensive risk management and portfolio management system utilized both internally and by external clients. The company emphasizes sustainable investing, integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors into its investment processes. With a global presence spanning over 30 countries, BlackRock plays a significant role in the global financial system, influencing market trends and investment practices.

BlackRock GR

Data

The BlackRock iBLD Endura® VC 5.5 ER Index, commonly referred to as the BlackRock Endura® Index, is designed to provide more consistent returns compared to traditional stock indices. It aims to reduce losses during market downturns while capturing gains in rising markets. The index primarily comprises U.S. equities and employs a daily volatility control mechanism to mitigate downside risk. This mechanism adjusts allocations between U.S. equities and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds based on market volatility. The index’s constituents include iShares® ETFs, and it tracks the excess return of these selected ETFs over the return on cash. This structure seeks to balance growth potential with risk management, making it a strategic option for investors seeking stable returns across varying market conditions. BlackRock Endura Index was officially launched on June 14, 2016 and therefore has accumulated less data over time when compared to the other indexes and ETFs.

Short-term Treasury bonds, often referred to as Treasury notes (T-notes), and represented by the ETF ticker symbol SHY, are U.S. government debt securities with maturities typically ranging from 1 to 3 years (rather than the 2 to 10 years characteristic of traditional T-notes). These securities pay a fixed interest rate every six months and are considered low-risk investments due to being backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Investors often use short-term Treasury bonds like SHY to achieve stability in their portfolios, earn modest interest income, and minimize exposure to interest rate fluctuations, making them an ideal choice in uncertain economic environments.

The iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF (USMV) is an exchange-traded fund designed to provide exposure to U.S. stocks with lower volatility compared to the broader market. It tracks the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index, focusing on companies that exhibit stable price movements, making it a popular choice for risk-averse investors. USMV typically includes large-cap stocks from defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples, aiming to reduce portfolio risk while maintaining equity market exposure. With a low expense ratio, it offers a cost-efficient way to achieve steady returns, though it may underperform in bull markets due to its defensive nature. This ETF is ideal for investors seeking to weather market fluctuations while maintaining consistent performance over time.

Data Source: BlackRock iBLD Endura® VC 5.5 ER Index (hereinafter, the “BlackRock Endura® Index”) at https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/284053/blackrock-ibld-endura-vc5-5-er-index#/

BlackRock Yearly Performance (2016-2024)

Date	Close	1-Year CAGR
2024-12-11	137.27	7.04%
2024-01-01	128.24	1.59%
2023-01-01	126.23	-9.24%
2022-01-01	139.08	7.78%
2021-01-01	129.04	2.42%
2020-01-01	125.99	10.84%
2019-01-01	113.66	-1.61%
2018-01-01	115.52	14.99%
2017-01-01	100.46	NA
2016-01-01	NA	NA

Summary

Annual Growth Rate Summary (2016-2024)

Statistic	Value	Definition
Count of Observations	7	Total number of data points collected over the specific period.
CAGR	3.1%	Compound Average Growth Rate; mean growth rate over a period if it had compounded anually.
Mean	3.82%	Reflects the general price level and overall growth rate.
Median	2.42%	Middle value of the data when ordered chronologically; central tendency measure less affected by extreme values.
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	8.13%	The dispersion of values from the mean, indicating the volatility of price changes and economic stability.
Min CAGR Range (CAGR - SD)	-5.03%	Lower boundary of expected BlackRock range; lowest estimate of typical growth rate considering normal fluctuations.
Max CAGR Range (CAGR + SD)	11.23%	Upper boundary of expected BlackRock range; highest estimate of typical growth rate considering normal fluctuations.
Minimum	-9.24%	Lowest growth rate.
Maximum	14.99%	Highest growth rate.
Percent Above Inflation Target	42.86%	Percentage of values above the inflation target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Conservative Target	42.86%	Percentage of values above the conservative target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Moderate Target	28.57%	Percentage of values above the moderate target specified in Preferred Targets section.
Percent Above Aggressive Target	14.29%	Percentage of values above the aggressive target specified in Preferred Targets section.

The BlackRock Endura’s Index exhibits a disappointing CAGR at 3.1%, lower than the mean growth rate of 3.82%, reflecting the impact of short-term volatility and growth spikes. The median return of 2.42% indicates that more than half of the observed years experienced returns below the mean. The relationship between the CAGR and the median growth rate suggests that sustained periods of above-median growth have exerted cumulative downward pressure on overall price levels. This relationship highlights a distribution with notable extremes on the higher end, reflecting positive skewness. This negative skewness implies that while more than half of the observed years experienced returns below the mean, upturns can be significant. However, the market has historically provided substantial downside risk. Additionally, the fact that 42.86% of the years exceeded the inflation target undermines the BlackRock Endura’s effectiveness as a long-term hedge against inflation.

The standard deviation of 8.13% suggests moderate volatility, typical of relatively stable markets. The comparatively stable range of annual returns, spanning from -9.24% to 14.99%, indicates a comparatively stable market, partly due to its composition, with less extreme annual fluctuations.

For the BlackRock Endura to be considered a high-performing and resilient long-term investment, it would be ideal to exceed the aggressive target (e.g., 10% annualized returns, accounting for higher inflation-adjusted performance expectations) in at least 40%-50% of the years. This range reflects the potential for strong upside in many years while balancing the understanding that markets do experience downturns. The fact that 14.29% of the years exceeded the aggressive target raises concerns about the BlackRock Endura’s ability to meet aggressive growth targets, making it less suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance.

Graph

BlackRock CAGR

Data

Due to BlackRock Endura’s inception in 2016, there is insufficient data to calculate the 10-year, 20-year and 30-year CAGRs.

Compound Average Growth Rates (2016-2024)

Date	Close	1-Year CAGR	5-Year CAGR	10-Year CAGR	20-Year CAGR	30-Year CAGR
2024-12-11	137.27	7.04%	1.73%	NA	NA	NA
2024-01-01	128.24	1.59%	2.44%	NA	NA	NA
2023-01-01	126.23	-9.24%	1.79%	NA	NA	NA
2022-01-01	139.08	7.78%	6.72%	NA	NA	NA
2021-01-01	129.04	2.42%	NA	NA	NA	NA
2020-01-01	125.99	10.84%	NA	NA	NA	NA
2019-01-01	113.66	-1.61%	NA	NA	NA	NA
2018-01-01	115.52	14.99%	NA	NA	NA	NA
2017-01-01	100.46	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
2016-01-01	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Summary

Compound Average Growth Rates (2016-2024)

Statistic	1-Year CAGR	5-Year CAGR	10-Year CAGR	20-Year CAGR	30-Year CAGR	Overall
Count of Observations	7	3	NA	NA	NA	10
Mean	3.82%	3.65%	NA	NA	NA	3.77%
Median	2.42%	2.44%	NA	NA	NA	2.43%
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	8.13%	2.68%	NA	NA	NA	6.76%
Min CAGR Range (CAGR - SD)	-5.03%	0.42%	NA	NA	NA	-3.66%
Max CAGR Range (CAGR + SD)	11.23%	5.78%	NA	NA	NA	9.86%
Minimum	-9.24%	1.79%	NA	NA	NA	-9.24%
Maximum	14.99%	6.72%	NA	NA	NA	14.99%
Percent Above Inflation Target	57.14%	66.67%	NA	NA	NA	40%
Percent Above Conservative Target	42.86%	33.33%	NA	NA	NA	40%
Percent Above Moderate Target	42.86%	0%	NA	NA	NA	20%
Percent Above Aggressive Target	14.29%	0%	NA	NA	NA	10%

2016-2024 Summary: The 1-Year CAGR exhibits the highest mean return at 3.82%, and the greatest volatility with a standard deviation of 8.13%. As the investment horizon extends to 5 years, the mean returns decrease, to 3.65%, while volatility diminishes, with standard deviations at 2.68%. This trend indicates that longer investment periods tend to offer more stable returns. Furthermore, the percentage of periods exceeding the inflation target increases with longer durations, from 57.14% in the 1-Year CAGR to 66.67% in the 5-Year CAGR, underscoring BlackRock’s effectiveness as a hedge against inflation over extended timeframes. With an overall percentage of 10% exceeding the aggressive target (10% annualized returns), BlackRock appears, over this time period, to be a less suitable option for a high-returning long-term investment.

Graph

All Periods

Compound Average Growth Rates Across Periods

COMPARISON OF INDEXES

Annual GR

Data

Annual Growth Rates By Index (2017-2024)

Date	S&P 500	QQQ	BlackRock
2024	21.31%	53.87%	1.59%
2023	-13.41%	-33.07%	-9.24%
2022	20.56%	26.81%	7.78%
2021	15.73%	47.57%	2.42%
2020	25.73%	37.83%	10.84%
2019	-6.54%	-0.96%	-1.61%
2018	22.62%	31.46%	14.99%
2017	18.58%	5.92%	NA%

Data begins with 2017, determined by the index with the least historical data for consistent comparison across all indexes.

Summary

Annual Growth Rates Summary By Index (2017-2024)

Metric	S&P 500	QQQ	BlackRock
CAGR	12.16%	17.62%	3.10%
Mean	13.07%	21.18%	3.82%
Median	19.57%	29.13%	2.42%
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	14.63%	28.90%	8.13%
Min CAGR Range (CAGR - SD)	-1.56%	-7.72%	-4.31%
Max CAGR Range (CAGR + SD)	27.70%	50.08%	11.96%
Min	-13.41%	-33.07%	-9.24%
Max	25.73%	53.87%	14.99%
Percent Above Inflation Target	75.00%	75.00%	42.86%
Percent Above Conservative Target	75.00%	62.50%	42.86%
Percent Above Moderate Target	75.00%	62.50%	28.57%
Percent Above Aggressive Target	75.00%	62.50%	14.29%

Comparison in Annual Growth Rates of Indexes (S&P 500, QQQ, and BlackRock) Over 8 Years (2017-2024): The summary reflects data over a Intermediate-Term Period (5-10 years). The performance and relative strength between indexes are likely to shift when measured across different time frames, particularly in response to major historical events, and particularly for Short-Term and Long-Term Periods. While a short- or intermediate-term analysis can provide insights, it may not fully represent performance over extended, long-term periods. Nevertheless, these statistics can serve as a benchmark for evaluating future market trends.

Comparative Analysis of Index Performance: QQQ exhibits the highest mean return at 21.18%, surpassing the S&P 500’s 13.07% and BlackRock’s 3.82%, reflecting its aggressive, tech-focused composition. Its CAGR of 17.62% significantly outpaces the S&P 500’s 12.16% and BlackRock’s 3.1%, further emphasizing QQQ’s strong growth potential. While both the S&P 500 and QQQ have consistently surpassed inflation, conservative, and moderate targets 62.5% of the time, BlackRock lags significantly, meeting these thresholds only 42.86% and 62.5% of the time, respectively. Additionally, BlackRock’s performance in exceeding the aggressive benchmark stands at just 14.29%, compared to 62.5% for both the S&P 500 and QQQ.

However, QQQ also demonstrates the highest volatility, with a standard deviation of 28.9%%, compared to 14.63% for the S&P 500 and 8.13% for BlackRock, underscoring its greater risk. The range of expected returns (CAGR ± SD) is widest for QQQ (-7.72% to 50.08%) and narrowest for BlackRock (-4.31% to 11.96%), emphasizing BlackRock’s stability but significantly lower growth potential. Median returns further highlight QQQ’s dominance (29.13%) over the S&P 500 (19.57%) and BlackRock (2.42%). BlackRock, though less volatile, lags in performance with the lowest maximum return. Both S&P 500 and QQQ have near- or at-equal percentage of years above each target, (14.99%) and the highest percentage of years below inflation and conservative targets. This comparison underscores QQQ’s appeal for growth-oriented investors seeking higher returns despite increased risk.

Long-Term Investment Viability: For any of these Indexes to be considered a high-performing and resilient long-term investment, it would be ideal to exceed the aggressive target (e.g., 10% annualized returns, accounting for higher inflation-adjusted performance expectations) in at least 40%-50% of the years. This range reflects the potential for strong upside in many years while balancing the understanding that markets do experience downturns.

• S&P 500: 75% of the years exceeded the aggressive target indicating consistent and robust growth, making it a strong option for those seeking aggressive investments.

• QQQ: 62.5% of the years exceeded the aggressive target indicating consistent and robust growth, making it a strong option for those seeking aggressive investments.

• BlackRock: 14.29% of the years exceeded the aggressive target raising concerns about its ability to meet aggressive growth targets, making it less suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance.

Graph

Annual Growth Rates By Index

There are years when QQQ’s annual growth rate underperformed the other indexes, particularly during declines such as in 2023, but those years are overshadowed by its overall strength. In hindsight, periods when strong, volatile indexes have performed the worst may actually represent the best opportunities to invest.

Cumulative Growth

Data

Cumulative Growth (2017-2024)

Date	S&P 500	QQQ	BlackRock
2024	250.41	366.31	127.64
2023	206.42	238.07	125.64
2022	238.39	355.69	138.43
2021	197.73	280.49	128.44
2020	170.86	190.08	125.40
2019	135.89	137.91	113.14
2018	145.40	139.24	114.99
2017	118.58	105.92	100.00
2016	100.00	100.00	100.00

The table and graph below show the impact of the annual growth rates, comparing the cumulative growth of the S&P 500, QQQ, and BlackRock indexes over a 8-year period from 2017 to 2024, starting with an initial value of $100 per 100%.

Graph

Cumulative Growth By Index

QQQ demonstrates the highest cumulative growth, reflecting its tech-heavy composition and higher risk-reward profile, while the S&P 500 shows steady, moderate growth, consistent with its broader market representation. In contrast, BlackRock exhibits the most conservative growth, likely due to its focus on lower-risk strategies or diversified portfolios. Since 2017, QQQ has maintained dominance on a cumulative basis. This comparison highlights the varying risk-return dynamics of the indexes, with QQQ offering aggressive growth potential and BlackRock catering to stability-focused investors.

SPX VS QQQ

Annual GR

Data

Annual Growth Rates By Index (2001-2024)

Date	S&P 500	QQQ
2024	21.31%	53.87%
2023	-13.41%	-33.07%
2022	20.56%	26.81%
2021	15.73%	47.57%
2020	25.73%	37.83%
2019	-6.54%	-0.96%
2018	22.62%	31.46%
2017	18.58%	5.92%
2016	-5.40%	8.33%
2015	11.29%	17.88%
2014	23.10%	35.05%
2013	13.83%	16.66%
2012	1.40%	2.51%
2011	14.15%	19.04%
2010	29.81%	53.85%
2009	-37.22%	-41.94%
2008	-3.19%	18.67%
2007	11.37%	6.81%
2006	8.24%	1.23%
2005	4.32%	9.48%
2004	26.42%	49.59%
2003	-21.43%	-37.36%
2002	-14.63%	-33.34%
2001	-6.31%	-36.12%

Data begins with 2001, determined by the index with the least historical data for consistent comparison across all indexes.

Summary

Annual Growth Rates Summary By Index (2001-2024)

Metric	S&P 500	QQQ
CAGR	5.19%	6.47%
Mean	6.68%	10.82%
Median	11.33%	13.07%
Standard Deviation (Volatility)	17.18%	29.71%
Min CAGR Range (CAGR - SD)	-10.50%	-18.89%
Max CAGR Range (CAGR + SD)	23.86%	40.53%
Min	-37.22%	-41.94%
Max	29.81%	53.87%
Percent Above Inflation Target	62.50%	66.67%
Percent Above Conservative Target	58.33%	62.50%
Percent Above Moderate Target	58.33%	58.33%
Percent Above Aggressive Target	45.83%	50.00%

Comparison in Annual Growth Rates of Indexes (S&P 500 and QQQ) Over 24 Years (2001-2024): QQQ exhibits the highest mean return at 10.82%, surpassing the S&P 500’s 6.68%, reflecting its aggressive, tech-focused composition. Its CAGR of 6.47% significantly outpaces the S&P 500’s 5.19%, further emphasizing QQQ’s strong growth potential. However, QQQ also demonstrates the highest volatility with a standard deviation of 29.71%, compared to 17.18% for the S&P 500, underscoring greater risk. The range of expected returns (Mean ± SD) is widest for QQQ (-18.89% to 40.53%). Median returns further showcase QQQ’s dominance (13.07%) over the S&P 500 (11.33%). S&P 500, though less volatile, lags in performance with the lowest maximum return (29.81%) and the highest percentage of years below inflation and conservative targets, meeting the aggressive benchmark only 45.83% of the time compared to 50% for the QQQ. This comparison underscores QQQ’s appeal for growth-oriented investors despite higher risk, while S&P 500 suits those prioritizing stability.

Graph

AGR

Annual Growth Rates By Index

Outperformance

The first graph highlights annual growth rates (AGR) for S&P 500 and QQQ over a 24-year period, demonstrating the volatility and variability of both indexes. QQQ consistently shows larger swings, both above and below the aggressive benchmark, reflective of its tech-heavy and high-growth nature, while the S&P 500 exhibits steadier performance with fewer extreme outliers. The second graph compares the AGR differences between the two indexes, illustrating periods when QQQ outperformed (blue bars) or underperformed (orange bars) the S&P 500. Notably, QQQ’s dominance is evident in the most recent years (e.g., 2024 and 2021), where it significantly outperformed, while earlier periods like 2001 thru 2023 show notable underperformance compared to the S&P 500.

Cumulative Growth

Data

Cumulative Growth Rates (2001-2024)

Date	S&P 500	QQQ
2024	337.03	450.27
2023	277.83	292.63
2022	320.85	437.22
2021	266.14	344.78
2020	229.96	233.64
2019	182.90	169.51
2018	195.70	171.16
2017	159.60	130.20
2016	134.59	122.92
2015	142.28	113.47
2014	127.84	96.26
2013	103.85	71.27
2012	91.23	61.10
2011	89.97	59.60
2010	78.82	50.07
2009	60.72	32.54
2008	96.72	56.05
2007	99.91	47.23
2006	89.71	44.22
2005	82.88	43.68
2004	79.45	39.90
2003	62.84	26.67
2002	79.98	42.58
2001	93.69	63.88
2000	100.00	100.00

The table and graph below show the impact of the annual growth rates, comparing the cumulative growth of the S&P 500 and QQQ indexes over a 24-year period from 2001 to 2024, starting with an initial value of $100 per 100%.

Graph

Cumulative Growth By Index

This graph depicts the cumulative growth of the S&P 500 (SPX) and QQQ over a 24-year period (2000 – 2024). Initially, QQQ underperformed on a cumulative basis, particularly during the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis, which significantly impacted its tech-heavy composition. Despite these setbacks, as time progressed, QQQ outperformed the S&P 500, reflecting its strong recovery and dominance during the tech boom of the 2010s and beyond. This graph exemplifies how timing impacts performance, highlighting the importance of analyzing growth over short-term, intermediate, and long-term periods to understand the varying risk-return dynamics and the influence of major economic events.

FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS

There are hundreds of ETFs and publicly traded stock companies that one can explore. These may include other ETFs such as the Vanguard VGT ETF (https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vgt#price) and BlackRock ETFs (https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/investment-funds), individual companies (e.g., AAPL, MSFT), and other portfolios types (Retirement-Plan Portfolios, etc).