Stock Market Movement Prediction Using 8-K Filings

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.title[
# Stock Market Movement Prediction Using 8-K Filings
]
.author[
### Team Members: Abhishek Varma, Kevin Roy, Saurabh Shete
]
.date[
### December 11, 2024
]

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## Top 10 Companies Analysis

![](data:image/png;base64,#8K_Filings_files/figure-html/top_10-1.png)

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## Data Preprocessing

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1. **Text Processing**:

- Tokenization & Normalization
   
   - Stop-word Removal
   
   - Special Character Cleaning

2. **Feature Engineering**:

- Financial metrics extraction
   
   - Technical indicators
   
   - Text-based features
]

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## Model Architecture

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### Deep Learning Model (H2O)
- 3 hidden layers

- Layer 1: 200 neurons
  
  - Layer 2: 100 neurons
  
  - Layer 3: 50 neurons
  
  - RectifierWithDropout activation
]

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### Training Features

- Adaptive learning rate

- Class balancing

- Early stopping

- L1/L2 regularization
]

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## Model Performance

* Overall Accuracy (74.27%)

* LogLoss (0.6619)

* Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) (0.4585)

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## Company-wise Performance

![](data:image/png;base64,#8K_Filings_files/figure-html/company_perf-1.png)

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## Key Findings

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1. **Overall Performance**:

- 74.27% prediction accuracy
   
   - Consistent performance across companies
   
   - Strong financial sector predictions

2. **Technical Achievements**:

- Successful text-market data integration
   
   - Effective deep learning implementation
   
   - Robust feature engineering
]

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## Response to Peer comments

- Comments related to performance evaluation were addressed.
   
   - Comments related to temporal pattern analysis were addressed.
   
   - Comments related to feature engineering were addressed.
   
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# Thank You!