The WxEM Project
Wave 6: Emergency Manager Use of Probabilistic Forecast Information
Survey Results
Geographic distribution of respondents
Survey Results
The NWS often uses probabilistic information (i.e., the likelihood of an event happening) to describe the possibility of a weather event occurring, particularly when there is still uncertainty in the forecast.
Do you, personally, use probabilistic information from the NWS?
Survey Results
The NWS often uses probabilistic information (i.e., the likelihood of an event happening) to describe the possibility of a weather event occurring, particularly when there is still uncertainty in the forecast.
How useful is probabilistic information from the NWS?
Survey Results
You indicated that you do not use probabilistic information from the NWS. Can you tell us why? Please select all that apply. [n=7]
Survey Results
Now we are going to ask you some questions about some NWS forecasts and graphics that contain probabilistic forecast information. This survey is about how probabilistic information is presented and how you as an emergency manager might interpret that information. There are no “right” or “wrong” answers, but rather we are looking at the clarity and usefulness of these forecasts and graphics. So, do not worry if you haven’t seen a graphic or forecast before, just give us your first impressions and interpretations.
Participants were shown one of these two graphics:
Survey Results
The graphic above represents uncertainty in the low temperature forecast. Based on your interpretation, which of the following choices best describes the forecast?
Survey Results
Based on the graphic above, what do you think is the most likely low temperature for Waco?
Survey Results
If you received this graphic from your local NWS office would you share it with key decision-makers and/or members of the public? Please select all that apply.
Survey Results
Imagine there’s a winter storm forecast for tomorrow and that you see all the snowfall forecasts below, which are different ways of presenting snowfall ranges and the likelihood that the actual amount will fall in that range. Which of these options do you prefer?
Survey Results
Imagine there’s a winter storm forecast for tomorrow and that you see all the snowfall forecasts below, which are different ways of presenting snowfall ranges and the likelihood that the actual amount will fall in that range. Which of these options do you prefer?
Survey Results
Imagine a situtation where you see a forecast but the forecast is incorrect as described below. HOw likely would you be to use forecasts from that source in the future?
Survey Results
In addition to text information, snowfall forecasts often include graphics indicating the amount of snow that is likely to fall in different areas, like the one below:
Participants were shown one of these two graphics:
Survey Results
How easy is it to understand the information presented in this graphic?
Survey Results
If you were an emergency manager for Springfield, how useful do you think this graphic would be for snowfall events?
Survey Results
What channels do you use to disseminate forecast information to your partners? Please indicate all that apply.
Survey Results
The NWS has also been testing another way to provide forecast snowfall amounts, similar to what is shown in the graphic below:
Survey Results
How easy is it to understand the information presented in this graphic?
Survey Results
If you were an emergency manager for Syracuse, how useful do you think this graphic would be for snowfall events?
Survey Results
If you received this graphic from your local NWS office would you share it with key decision-makers and/or members of the public? Please select all that apply
Survey Results
Imagine you see one of the following messages for your area from an NWS forecaster.
How easy is it to understand the information presented in this message?
Survey Results
How concerned would you be based on the information presented in this message?
Survey Results
If you received this message from your local NWS office would you share it (in this form) with key decision-makers and/or members of the public? Please select all that apply
Survey Results
You may have seen the following graphics from your local NWS office. They show two different ways to visualize probabilistic forecast information:
Survey Results
If you had to choose, which of these two probabilistic forecast formats do you prefer?
Survey Results
As you may know, the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issues Excessive Rainfall Outlooks that indicate flash flooding threats across the contiguous United States. These Outlooks use a combination of words, colors, and numeric probabilities to represent flooding threats. Emergency Managers were shown one of the following examples, one where the highest category was slight or one where the highest category was high:
Survey Results
Have you ever seen an Excessive Rainfall Outlook before?
Survey Results
How confident are you in your ability to understand the information presented in this Outlook?
Survey Results
Imagine you are an Emergency Manager for Location A… Emergency Managers were shown one of the following examples, one where the highest category was slight or one where the highest category was high:
Survey Results
Based on this Outlook, would you say that Location A is…
Survey Results
Based on this Outlook, how concerned are you about flash flooding at Location A?
Survey Results
Based on this Outlook, how likely are you to take any actions regarding potential flash flooding in Location A?
Survey Results
Based on this Outlook, how likely are you to take any actions regarding potential flash flooding in Location A?
Survey Results
To what extent does working with collaborators make you more capable of engaging in recovery activities following a hazardous weather event?
Survey Results
Now let’s look at some probabilistic wind forecasts. Imagine you are an emergency manager at location Y, and you are particularly concerned about the possibility of 74 mph winds. Your local NWS office provides this forecast graphic. EMs were shown one of these two graphics: ## Survey Results {.smaller}
How easy is it to understand the information presented in this graphic?
Survey Results
How concerned would you be based on the information presented in this graphic?
Survey Results
If you received this graphic from your local NWS office would you share it with key decision-makers and/or members of the public?
Survey Results
Some emergency managers have thresholds for decision-making. For example, opening warming shelters when the forecasted low temperature is 32° F or lower, or opening cooling shelters if the high temperature exceeds 100° F. Does your jurisdiction have specific weather thresholds for decision-making?
Survey Results
Have these decision threshold(s) been beneficial to your operations?
Survey Results
Is your local NWS office aware of your decision threshold(s)?
Survey Results
Did you work with your local NWS office to establish that threshold?
Survey Results
Does your local NWS office provide information tailored to that threshold to help in your decision-making process?
Survey Results
Does your local NWS office provide probabilistic forecast information tailored to that threshold to help in your decision-making process?
Survey Results
Does your emergency management office have any written plans or policies that include those thresholds?
Survey Results
Do you think establishing a decision threshold could be beneficial to your operations?
