Story 7 : Where Do Strategic Minerals Come From?

The US Geological Survey publishes a list of Strategic Minerals ( https://www.usgs.gov/news/national-news-release/us-geological-survey-releases-2022-list-critical-minerals ). Having a secure supply of these minerals is essential to our security and economic prosperity. However many of these minerals are sourced from outside of the US. This assignment is to develop a reference catalog of the source or sources of each of these minerals and a judgment on the reliability of each source under stressed circumstance (e.g. war, economic crisis, etc.)

The graph illustrates the critical dependence of low-carbon technologies on specific minerals, highlighting the number of minerals with “Complete Dependence” and “Very High Dependence” for each technology. Technologies such as wind energy, solar photovoltaics, and energy storage demonstrate a pronounced reliance on minerals like manganese, cobalt, and rare earth elements, most of which are imported. This dependency poses challenges to energy security and the clean energy transition, as many of these minerals are sourced from a limited number of countries. According to the US Geological Survey’s 2022 list of critical minerals, ensuring a secure and stable supply chain is vital to the successful deployment of these technologies in achieving global climate goals. Diversifying supply chains and increasing domestic production are necessary steps to mitigate potential disruptions.

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##          Source   Category
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## 2     Australia       Ally
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## 7         Chile Competitor
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## 9       Estonia Competitor
## 10       Europe       Ally
## 11      Finland       Ally
## 12       France       Ally
## 13        Gabon Competitor
## 14      Georgia Competitor
## 15      Germany       Ally
## 16        India    Neutral
## 17    Indonesia Competitor
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## 19        Italy Competitor
## 20        Japan       Ally
## 21   Kazakhstan Competitor
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## 28         Peru Competitor
## 29  Philippines Competitor
## 30       Russia Competitor
## 31      Senegal Competitor
## 32 South Africa Competitor
## 33  South Korea       Ally
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## 35  Switzerland    Neutral
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## 37      Ukraine Competitor
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The reliance of the United States on imports for critical minerals, particularly from geopolitically sensitive nations such as Russia and China, creates vulnerabilities in mineral supply chains. These dependencies make the U.S. susceptible to geopolitical tensions, wars, pandemics, and natural disasters, which can disrupt supply and hinder economic and national security. Analysis of supply chain stability highlights that 22 out of 50 critical minerals have over 35% of their sources categorized as “Unstable” or “Extremely Unstable.” To address these risks, stakeholders must prioritize resilient and sustainable supply chains, ensuring long-term stability and minimizing vulnerabilities in global critical mineral markets.

This graph evaluates the governance quality of countries supplying critical minerals, categorized as Ally, Competitor, and Neutral, based on four World Bank governance indicators: Corruption Control, Government Effectiveness, Political Stability, and Regulatory Quality. Ally sources, such as Australia, Canada, and Germany, demonstrate excellent governance, with 100% scoring “Very Good” in Government Effectiveness and Regulatory Quality, making them reliable partners for supply chain stability. In contrast, competitor sources like China and Russia reveal significant governance weaknesses, with only 9.1% achieving “Very Good” in Government Effectiveness, while 27.3% and 13.6% score “Poor” or “Very Poor” in Corruption Control and Political Stability, respectively, emphasizing the risks of over-reliance on these sources. Neutral sources, including Belgium and India, show mixed governance performance, with 50% scoring “Very Good” in Regulatory Quality but substantial proportions rated “Okay” or worse in Government Effectiveness and Political Stability, reflecting moderate reliability. According to the USGS 2022 Critical Minerals List, which identifies 50 critical minerals vital to the U.S. economy and national security, many of these minerals are sourced from unstable or geopolitically sensitive regions. Reliance on allies with high governance scores ensures greater stability, whereas dependence on competitors or neutral sources introduces significant risks. These findings highlight the need for the U.S. to strengthen domestic mining capabilities and diversify import sources to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities and secure access to critical minerals.

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