Intro

The presidential election fell in the middle of my last semester of college, Fall 2024, and I was fortunate enough to take Dr. Ken Blake’s election analytics class. This page is a compilation of coding projects I worked on during the course.

GRAPI by Tennessee House district

Experts recommend spending no more than 30 percent of your gross monthly income on rent, but many renters in Rutherford County are exceeding that recommendation. The graph below shows the proportion of renters by Tennessee House District, that are spending more than 30 percent of their total household income on rent.

Proportion of renters overspending on housing, by Tennessee House district

District	Estimate	Estimate_MOE	From	To
Estimate by district
State House District 13 (2022), Tennessee	42.9	7.7	35.2	50.6
State House District 37 (2022), Tennessee	40.3	5.5	34.8	45.8
State House District 34 (2022), Tennessee	35.9	4.8	31.1	40.7
State House District 49 (2022), Tennessee	35.7	5.6	30.1	41.3
State House District 48 (2022), Tennessee	34.4	5.9	28.5	40.3

Code

# Installing and loading required packages

if (!require("tidyverse"))
  install.packages("tidyverse")
if (!require("tidycensus"))
  install.packages("tidycensus")
if (!require("sf"))
  install.packages("sf")
if (!require("mapview"))
  install.packages("mapview")
if (!require("gtExtras"))
  install.packages("gtExtras")

library(tidyverse)
library(tidycensus)
library(sf)
library(mapview)
library(gtExtras)

# Transmitting API key

census_api_key("0bab6e4e9563074a456d52b9e83745a7a7305761")

# Fetching ACS codebooks

DetailedTables <- load_variables(2022, "acs5", cache = TRUE)
SubjectTables <- load_variables(2022, "acs5/subject", cache = TRUE)
ProfileTables <- load_variables(2022, "acs5/profile", cache = TRUE)
Codebook <- DetailedTables %>% 
  select(name, label, concept)
Codebook <- bind_rows(Codebook,SubjectTables)
Codebook <- bind_rows(Codebook,ProfileTables)
Codebook <- Codebook %>% 
  distinct(label, .keep_all = TRUE)
rm(DetailedTables,
   SubjectTables,
   ProfileTables)

# Filtering the codebook

MyVars <- Codebook %>% 
  filter(grepl("GRAPI", label) &
           grepl("Percent!!", label))

# Making a table of the filtered variables

MyVarsTable <- gt(MyVars) %>%
  tab_header("Variables") %>%
  cols_align(align = "left") %>%
  gt_theme_538

# Displaying the table

MyVarsTable

# Defining the variable to retrieve

VariableList = 
  c(Estimate_ = "DP04_0142P")

# Fetching data

AllData <- get_acs(
  geography = "state legislative district (lower chamber)",
  state = "TN",
  variables = VariableList,
  year = 2022,
  survey = "acs5",
  output = "wide",
  geometry = TRUE
)

# Mutating, selecting and sorting the data

AllData <- AllData %>%
  mutate(
    District = NAME,
    Estimate = Estimate_E,
    Estimate_MOE = Estimate_M,
    From = round(Estimate - Estimate_MOE, 2),
    To = round(Estimate + Estimate_MOE, 2)
  ) %>%
  select(District, Estimate, Estimate_MOE, From, To, geometry) %>%
  arrange(desc(Estimate))

# Filtering for Rutherford County districts

MyData <- AllData %>%
  filter(
    District == "State House District 13 (2022), Tennessee" |
      District == "State House District 37 (2022), Tennessee" |
      District == "State House District 49 (2022), Tennessee" |
      District == "State House District 48 (2022), Tennessee" |
      District == "State House District 34 (2022), Tennessee"
  )

# Producing a map

MapData <- st_as_sf(MyData)

MyMap <- mapview(MapData,
        zcol = "Estimate",
        layer.name = "Estimate",
        popup = TRUE)
#Displaying the map

MyMap

# Producing a table

TableData <- st_drop_geometry(MapData)
MyTable <- gt(TableData) %>%
  tab_header("Estimate by district") %>%
  cols_align(align = "left") %>%
  gt_theme_538

# Displaying the table

MyTable

Precinct-level Rutherford County election results from 2022

Almost every voting precinct in Rutherford County favored Bill Lee over his Democratic challenger Jason Martin in the 2022 gubernatorial race. Martin had more support in central Murfreesboro precincts and precincts in the north of the county closer to Nashville. The map below shows the percentage of votes cast for Lee by precinct.

Rutherford 2022 Gubernatorial election results, by precinct

Code

# Required packages

if (!require("tidyverse"))
  install.packages("tidyverse")
if (!require("mapview"))
  install.packages("mapview")
if (!require("sf"))
  install.packages("sf")
if (!require("leaflet"))
  install.packages("leaflet")
if (!require("leaflet.extras2"))
  install.packages("leaflet.extras2")
if (!require("plotly"))
  install.packages("plotly")

library(tidyverse)
library(mapview)
library(sf)
library(leaflet)
library(leafpop)
library(readxl)
library(plotly)

# Download and import election data
# from TN Secretary of State web site:
# https://sos.tn.gov/elections/results

download.file(
  "https://sos-prod.tnsosgovfiles.com/s3fs-public/document/20221108AllbyPrecinct.xlsx",
  "RawElectionData.xlsx",
  quiet = TRUE,
  mode = "wb"
)

RawElectionData <- read_xlsx("RawElectionData.xlsx", sheet = "SOFFICELso")

# Filter, calculate, and select
# to get data of interest
# then store results in MyData dataframe

MyData <- RawElectionData %>%
  filter(COUNTY == "Rutherford", CANDGROUP == "1") %>%
  mutate(
    Lee = PVTALLY1,
    Martin = PVTALLY2,
    Total = PVTALLY1 + PVTALLY2,
    Lee_Pct = round(PVTALLY1 / (PVTALLY1 + PVTALLY2), 2),
    Martin_Pct = round(PVTALLY2 / (PVTALLY1 + PVTALLY2), 2),
    Winner = case_when(
      PVTALLY1 > PVTALLY2 ~ "Lee (R)",
      PVTALLY2 > PVTALLY1 ~ "Martin (D)",
      .default = "Tie"
    )
  ) %>%
  select(COUNTY, PRECINCT, Total, Lee, Martin, Lee_Pct, Martin_Pct, Winner)

# Download and unzip a precinct map to pair with the vote data

download.file("https://github.com/drkblake/Data/raw/main/Voting_Precincts_5_31_24.zip","TNVotingPrecincts.zip")

unzip("TNVotingPrecincts.zip")

All_Precincts <- read_sf("Voting_Precincts_5_31_24.shp")

# Filter for particular county precincts

County_Precincts <- All_Precincts %>%
  filter(COUNTY == 149) %>%
  rename(PRECINCT = NEWVOTINGP)

# Merge election data and map file

MergeFile <- merge(MyData, County_Precincts, by = "PRECINCT", all.x = TRUE)

# Drop unneeded columns from MergeFile

MergeFile <- MergeFile %>%
  select(PRECINCT,
         Total,
         Lee,
         Martin,
         Lee_Pct,
         Martin_Pct,
         Winner,
         geometry)

# Format MergeFile as a map, and
# call the map MyMap

MyMapFile <- st_as_sf(MergeFile)

mypalette = colorRampPalette(c('blue', 'red'))

MyMap <- mapview(
  MyMapFile,
  zcol = "Lee_Pct",
  col.regions = mypalette, at = seq(0, 1, .2),
  map.types = ("OpenStreetMap"),
  layer.name = "Pct. for Lee",
  popup = popupTable(
    MyMapFile,
    feature.id = FALSE,
    row.numbers = FALSE,
    zcol = c(
      "PRECINCT",
      "Lee",
      "Martin",
      "Total",
      "Lee_Pct",
      "Martin_Pct",
      "Winner"
    )
  )
)

# Showing the map

MyMap

Early voting location map and code

Early voting for the 2024 presidential election took place in Rutherford County from Oct. 16 to Oct. 31. There were nine early voting locations, represented on the map below by a yellow marker. The blue marker locates MTSU.

Early voting locations in Rutherford County

Code

# Required packages

if (!require("tidyverse"))
  install.packages("tidyverse")
if (!require("sf"))
  install.packages("sf")
if (!require("mapview"))
  install.packages("mapview")
if (!require("leaflet")) 
  install.packages("leaflet")
if (!require("leaflet.extras2")) 
  install.packages("leaflet.extras2")

library(tidyverse)
library(sf)
library(mapview)
library(leaflet)
library(leaflet.extras2)
library(leafpop)

mapviewOptions(basemaps.color.shuffle = FALSE)

# Load the address and lat/long data

Addresses_gc <- read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/drkblake/Data/refs/heads/main/EarlyVotingLocations_gc.csv")

# Add MTSU

long <- -86.361861
lat <- 35.848997

Addresses_gc <- Addresses_gc %>% 
  add_row(Location = "MTSU",
          long = long,
          lat = lat) %>% 
  mutate(Point = case_when(Location == "MTSU" ~ "MTSU",
                           TRUE ~ "Early vote here"))

MapData <- st_as_sf(Addresses_gc,
                    coords = c("long", "lat"),
                    crs = 4326)

# Make the map

MyMap <- mapview(MapData,
                 zcol = "Point",
                 layer.name = "Point",
                 col.regions = c("orange", "blue"),
                 map.types = c("OpenStreetMap","Esri.WorldImagery"),
                 popup = popupTable(
                   MapData,
                   feature.id = FALSE,
                   row.numbers = FALSE,
                   zcol = c("Location",
                            "Address",
                            "Week",
                            "Weekend")))
# Show the map

MyMap

Early voting turnout in Rutherford County, 2024

The graph below displays the early vote totals in Rutherford County broken down by day. Turnout was higher on weekdays, with severe dips in votes cast on the Saturdays that the polls were open.

Vote totals per day

Below, turnout is broken down by precinct. Total early voter turnout in Rutherford County ranged from 31 to 61 percent. Click on a precinct for more details.

Total early voter turnout in Rutherford County, by precinct

Code

if (!require("tidyverse"))
  install.packages("tidyverse")
if (!require("foreign"))
  install.packages("foreign")
if (!require("sf"))
  install.packages("sf")
if (!require("scales"))
  install.packages("scales")
if (!require("mapview"))
  install.packages("mapview")
if (!require("leaflet"))
  install.packages("leaflet")
if (!require("leaflet.extras2"))
  install.packages("leaflet.extras2")

library(tidyverse)
library(foreign)
library(sf)
library(scales)
library(mapview)
library(leaflet)
library(leafpop)

# Fetch and unzip the early voting files

download.file("https://github.com/drkblake/Data/raw/refs/heads/main/DailyEVFiles.zip","DailyEVFiles.zip")

unzip("DailyEVFiles.zip")

# Read the first daily voting file

AddData <- read.dbf("10162024.dbf")
AllData <- AddData

# Add each day's  file name to this list, then run

datafiles <- c("10172024.dbf",
               "10182024.dbf",
               "10192024.dbf",
               "10212024.dbf",
               "10222024.dbf",
               "10232024.dbf",
               "10242024.dbf",
               "10252024.dbf",
               "10262024.dbf",
               "10282024.dbf",
               "10292024.dbf",
               "10302024.dbf",
               "10312024.dbf")

for (x in datafiles) {
  AddData <- read.dbf(x, as.is = FALSE)
  AllData <- rbind(AllData, AddData)
}

# Save AllData file as .csv
write_csv(AllData,"EarlyVoterData2024.csv")

# Get total votes so far

TotalVotes <- nrow(AllData)
PctVotes <- round((TotalVotes / 224746)*100, digits = 0)

VotesByDay <- AllData %>% 
  group_by(VOTEDDATE) %>% 
  summarize(Votes = n()) %>% 
  rename(Date = VOTEDDATE) %>% 
  mutate(Date = (str_remove(Date,"2024-")))

# "#2C7865" is a green shade

chart = ggplot(data = VotesByDay,
               aes(x = Date,
                   y = Votes))+
  geom_bar(stat="identity", fill = "#41B3A2") +
  geom_text(aes(label=comma(Votes)),
            vjust=1.6,
            color="black",
            size=3.5)+
  theme(
    axis.title.x = element_blank(),
    axis.ticks.y = element_blank(),
    axis.title.y = element_blank(),
    axis.text.y = element_blank(),
    panel.background = element_blank())

chart

### Precinct-level map of early voting turnout ***

# Aggregate early voting data by precinct

PrecinctData <- AllData %>% 
  group_by(PCT_NBR) %>% 
  summarize(Votes = n()) %>% 
  rename(Precinct = PCT_NBR)

# Download and unzip a precinct map to pair with the vote data

download.file("https://github.com/drkblake/Data/raw/main/Voting_Precincts_5_31_24.zip","TNVotingPrecincts.zip")

unzip("TNVotingPrecincts.zip")

All_Precincts <- read_sf("Voting_Precincts_5_31_24.shp")

# Filter for RuCo precincts and 
# strip dash from precinct numbers

County_Precincts <- All_Precincts %>%
  filter(COUNTY == 149) %>%
  rename(Precinct = NEWVOTINGP) %>% 
  mutate(Precinct = (str_remove(Precinct,"-")))

MapData <-  left_join(PrecinctData, County_Precincts, by = "Precinct")

RegData <- read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/drkblake/Data/refs/heads/main/RegVotersRuCo.csv") %>% 
  mutate(Precinct = as.character(Precinct))

MapData <- left_join(MapData, RegData, by = "Precinct")

MapData <- MapData %>% 
  mutate(Percent = round((Votes/RegVoters)*100), digits = 0) %>%
  rename(Voters = RegVoters) %>% 
  select(Precinct, Votes, Voters, Percent, geometry)

MapData_sf <- st_as_sf(MapData)

Map <- mapview(
  MapData_sf,
  zcol = "Percent",
  layer.name = "Pct. early voted",
  popup = popupTable(
    MapData_sf,
    feature.id = FALSE,
    row.numbers = FALSE,
    zcol = c(
      "Precinct",
      "Votes",
      "Voters",
      "Percent"
    )
  )
)

Map

MinTurnout <- min(MapData$Percent)
MaxTurnout <- max(MapData$Percent)
MedianTurnout <- median(MapData$Percent)
MeanTurnout <- mean(MapData$Percent)

Cable news coverage tracker

The charts below are interactive. By clicking on the lines in the key for each candidate, you can compare and contrast the amount of cable news coverage that mentions Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden between late April and October.

All Cable News

MSNBC

CNN

Fox

Code

if (!require("tidyverse"))
  install.packages("tidyverse")
if (!require("plotly"))
  install.packages("plotly")
library(tidyverse)
library(plotly)

# Defining date range

startdate <- "20240429"
enddate <- "20241112"

### Trump

# Defining query

# Note:
# In queries, use %20 to indicate a space
# Example: "Donald%20Trump" is "Donald Trump"
# Use parentheses and %20OR%20 for "either/or" queries
# Example: "(Harris%20OR%20Walz)" is "(Harris OR Walz)"

query <- "Donald%20Trump"

# Building the volume dataframe

vp1 <- "https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/tv/tv?query="
vp2 <- "%20market:%22National%22&mode=timelinevol&format=csv&datanorm=raw&startdatetime="
vp3 <- "000000&enddatetime="
vp4 <- "000000"
text_v_url <- paste0(vp1, query, vp2, startdate, vp3, enddate, vp4)
v_url <- URLencode(text_v_url)
v_url
Trump <- read_csv(v_url)
Trump <- Trump %>%
  rename(Date = 1, Trump = 3)

### Biden

# Defining query

query <- "Joe%20Biden"

# Building the volume dataframe

vp1 <- "https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/tv/tv?query="
vp2 <- "%20market:%22National%22&mode=timelinevol&format=csv&datanorm=raw&startdatetime="
vp3 <- "000000&enddatetime="
vp4 <- "000000"
text_v_url <- paste0(vp1, query, vp2, startdate, vp3, enddate, vp4)
v_url <- URLencode(text_v_url)
v_url
Biden <- read_csv(v_url)
Biden <- Biden %>%
  rename(Date = 1, Biden = 3)

AllData <- left_join(Trump, Biden)

### Harris

# Defining query

query <- "Kamala%20Harris"

# Building the volume dataframe

vp1 <- "https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/tv/tv?query="
vp2 <- "%20market:%22National%22&mode=timelinevol&format=csv&datanorm=raw&startdatetime="
vp3 <- "000000&enddatetime="
vp4 <- "000000"
text_v_url <- paste0(vp1, query, vp2, startdate, vp3, enddate, vp4)
v_url <- URLencode(text_v_url)
v_url
Harris <- read_csv(v_url)
Harris <- Harris %>%
  rename(Date = 1, Harris = 3)

AllData <- left_join(AllData, Harris)

### Graphic

AllData <- AllData %>%
  arrange(Date)

# Add "WeekOf" variable to the data frame

if (!require("lubridate"))
  install.packages("lubridate")
library(lubridate)

AllData$WeekOf <- round_date(AllData$Date,
                             unit = "week",
                             week_start = getOption("lubridate.week.start", 1))

CombinedCoverage <- AllData %>%
  group_by(WeekOf) %>%
  summarize(
    Trump = sum(Trump, na.rm = TRUE),
    Biden = sum(Biden, na.rm = TRUE),
    Harris = sum(Harris, na.rm = TRUE)
  )

fig <- plot_ly(
  CombinedCoverage,
  x = ~ WeekOf,
  y = ~ Trump,
  name = 'Trump',
  type = 'scatter',
  mode = 'none',
  stackgroup = 'one',
  fillcolor = '#B8001F')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ Biden,
                         name = 'Biden',
                         fillcolor = '#507687')

fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ Harris,
                         name = 'Harris',
                         fillcolor = '#384B70')
fig <- fig %>% layout(
  title = 'Segment counts, by topic and week',
  xaxis = list(title = "Week of", showgrid = FALSE),
  yaxis = list(title = "Count", showgrid = TRUE)
)

fig

### Results for MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News, separately

# MSNBC

MSNBC <- AllData %>%
  filter(Series == "MSNBC")
figMSNBC <- plot_ly(
  MSNBC,
  x = ~ WeekOf,
  y = ~ Trump,
  name = 'Trump',
  type = 'scatter',
  mode = 'none',
  stackgroup = 'one',
  fillcolor = '#B8001F')
figMSNBC <- figMSNBC %>% add_trace(y = ~ Biden,
                                   name = 'Biden',
                                   fillcolor = '#507687')
figMSNBC <- figMSNBC %>% add_trace(y = ~ Harris,
                                   name = 'Harris',
                                   fillcolor = '#384B70')
figMSNBC <- figMSNBC %>% layout(
  title = 'Segment counts, MSNBC, by topic and week',
  xaxis = list(title = "Week of", showgrid = FALSE),
  yaxis = list(title = "Count", showgrid = TRUE)
)

figMSNBC

# CNN

CNN <- AllData %>%
  filter(Series == "CNN")
figCNN <- plot_ly(
  CNN,
  x = ~ WeekOf,
  y = ~ Trump,
  name = 'Trump',
  type = 'scatter',
  mode = 'none',
  stackgroup = 'one',
  fillcolor = '#B8001F')
figCNN <- figCNN %>% add_trace(y = ~ Biden,
                               name = 'Biden',
                               fillcolor = '#507687')
figCNN <- figCNN %>% add_trace(y = ~ Harris,
                               name = 'Harris',
                               fillcolor = '#384B70')
figCNN <- figCNN %>% layout(
  title = 'Segment counts, CNN, by topic and week',
  xaxis = list(title = "Week of", showgrid = FALSE),
  yaxis = list(title = "Count", showgrid = TRUE)
)

figCNN

#Fox News

FoxNews <- AllData %>%
  filter(Series == "FOXNEWS")
figFox <- plot_ly(
  FoxNews,
  x = ~ WeekOf,
  y = ~ Trump,
  name = 'Trump',
  type = 'scatter',
  mode = 'none',
  stackgroup = 'one',
  fillcolor = '#B8001F')
figFox <- figFox %>% add_trace(y = ~ Biden,
                               name = 'Biden',
                               fillcolor = '#507687')
figFox <- figFox %>% add_trace(y = ~ Harris,
                               name = 'Harris',
                               fillcolor = '#384B70')
figFox <- figFox %>% layout(
  title = 'Segment counts, Fox News, by topic and week',
  xaxis = list(title = "Week of", showgrid = FALSE),
  yaxis = list(title = "Count", showgrid = TRUE)
)

figFox

National election map and electoral vote graphic

The following map tracked the winner of each state and was updated live on Election Day for MTSU’s election coverage media specials.

Electoral vote map

The graph below counted the electoral votes that each candidate won. It was also updated live on Election Day for MTSU’s election coverage media specials.

Electoral votes by candidate

Code

if (!require("tidyverse"))
  install.packages("tidyverse")
if (!require("tidycensus"))
  install.packages("tidycensus")
if (!require("sf"))
  install.packages("sf")
if (!require("mapview"))
  install.packages("mapview")
if (!require("DataEditR"))
  install.packages("DataEditR")
if (!require("leaflet"))
  install.packages("leaflet")
if (!require("leaflet.extras2"))
  install.packages("leaflet.extras2")
if (!require("plotly"))
  install.packages("plotly")

library(tidyverse)
library(tidycensus)
library(sf)
library(mapview)
library(DataEditR)
library(leaflet)
library(leafpop)
library(plotly)

# Getting a U.S.map shapefile

# Note: Provide your Census API key in the line below

census_api_key("0bab6e4e9563074a456d52b9e83745a7a7305761")

# U.S. Map

omit <- c("Alaska", "Puerto Rico", "Hawaii")
USMap <- get_acs(
  geography = "state",
  variables = "DP02_0154P",
  year = 2022,
  survey = "acs5",
  output = "wide",
  geometry = TRUE) %>%
  filter(!(NAME %in% omit)) %>%
  mutate(Full = NAME) %>%
  select(GEOID, Full, geometry)
st_write(USMap,"USMap.shp", append = FALSE)

# Data file

USData <- read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/drkblake/Data/refs/heads/main/ElectoralVotesByState2024.csv")

# Edit / update election data

USData <- data_edit(USData)
write_csv(USData,"ElectoralVotesByState2024.csv")
write_csv(USData,"ElectoralVotesByState2024_latest.csv")
          
# Merge election and map data

USWinners <- merge(USMap,USData) %>% 
  mutate(Winner = (case_when(
    Harris > Trump ~ "Harris",
    Trump > Harris ~ "Trump",
    .default = "Counting"))) %>%
  mutate(Votes = Votes.to.allocate) %>% 
  select(State, Votes, Harris, Trump, Winner, geometry)

# Make the election map

USpalette = colorRampPalette(c("darkblue","darkred"))

BigMap <- mapview(USWinners, zcol = "Winner",
        col.regions = USpalette,
        alpha.regions = .8,
        layer.name = "Winner",
        popup = popupTable(
          USWinners,
          feature.id = FALSE,
          row.numbers = FALSE,
          zcol = c(
            "State",
            "Votes",
            "Harris",
            "Trump",
            "Winner")))

# Showing the map

BigMap

# Make the electoral vote tracker

# Loading the data from a local .csv file

AllData <- read.csv("ElectoralVotesByState2024.csv")
AllData <- AllData %>%
  arrange(State)

# Formatting and transforming the data for plotting

MyData <- AllData %>%
  select(State, Votes.to.allocate,
         Unallocated, Harris, Trump) %>% 
  arrange(State)

MyData <- MyData %>%
  pivot_longer(cols=c(-State),names_to="Candidate")%>%
  pivot_wider(names_from=c(State)) %>%
  filter(Candidate == "Harris" |
           Candidate == "Trump" |
           Candidate == "Unallocated") %>%
  arrange(Candidate)

MyData <- MyData %>% 
  mutate(total = rowSums(.[2:52]))

# Formatting a horizontal line for the plot

hline <- function(y = 0, color = "darkgray") {
  list(
    type = "line",
    x0 = 0,
    x1 = 1,
    xref = "paper",
    y0 = y,
    y1 = y,
    line = list(color = color)
  )
}

# Producing the plot

fig <- plot_ly(
  MyData,
  x = ~ Candidate,
  y = ~ AK,
  legend = FALSE,
  marker = list(color = c("384B70", "B8001F", "gray")),
  type = 'bar',
  name = 'AK'
) %>% 
  add_annotations(
    visible = "legendonly",
    x = ~ Candidate,
    y = ~ (total + 20),
    text = ~ total,
    showarrow = FALSE,
    textfont = list(size = 50)
  ) 
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ DE, name = 'DE')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ DC, name = 'DC')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ MT, name = 'MT')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ ND, name = 'ND')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ SD, name = 'SD')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ VT, name = 'VT')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ WY, name = 'WY')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ HI, name = 'HI')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ ID, name = 'ID')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ ME, name = 'ME')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ NH, name = 'NH')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ RI, name = 'RI')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ NE, name = 'NE')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ NM, name = 'NM')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ WV, name = 'WV')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ AR, name = 'AR')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ IA, name = 'IA')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ KS, name = 'KS')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ MS, name = 'MS')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ NV, name = 'NV')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ UT, name = 'UT')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ CT, name = 'CT')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ OK, name = 'OK')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ OR, name = 'OR')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ KY, name = 'KY')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ LA, name = 'LA')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ AL, name = 'AL')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ CO, name = 'CO')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ SC, name = 'SC')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ MD, name = 'MD')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ MN, name = 'MN')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ MO, name = 'MO')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ WI, name = 'WI')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ AZ, name = 'AZ')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ IN, name = 'IN')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ MA, name = 'MA')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ TN, name = 'TN')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ WA, name = 'WA')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ VA, name = 'VA')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ NJ, name = 'NJ')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ NC, name = 'NC')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ GA, name = 'GA')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ MI, name = 'MI')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ OH, name = 'OH')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ IL, name = 'IL')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ PA, name = 'PA')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ FL, name = 'FL')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ NY, name = 'NY')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ TX, name = 'TX')
fig <- fig %>% add_trace(y = ~ CA, name = 'CA')
fig <- fig %>% layout(yaxis = list(title = 'Electoral votes'),
                      barmode = 'stack',
                      showlegend = FALSE,
                      shapes = list(hline(270)))
# Showing the plot

fig

Post-election voting shifts in Tennessee, by county

Donald Trump won Tennessee in both 2020 and 2024. However, his victory in 2016 was not from lack of turnout by Democrats. 2024 was a different story.

Voting shifts, 2016-2020

The map below shows that both parties gained voters in most counties in the state in the 2020 election over the 2016 election.

Voting shifts, 2020-2024

Between 2020 and 2024, the Democrats hemorrhaged voters in call but seven counties. Republicans, however, gained voters in all but eight counties.

Code

# Required packages

if (!require("tidyverse"))
  install.packages("tidyverse")
if (!require("mapview"))
  install.packages("mapview")
if (!require("sf"))
  install.packages("sf")
if (!require("leaflet"))
  install.packages("leaflet")
if (!require("leaflet.extras2"))
  install.packages("leaflet.extras2")
if (!require("plotly"))
  install.packages("plotly")
if (!require("tidycensus"))
  install.packages("tidycensus")

library(tidyverse)
library(mapview)
library(sf)
library(leaflet)
library(leafpop)
library(readxl)
library(plotly)
library(tidycensus)

# Go ahead and transmit your Census API key
# so you don't forget to do it later when getting
# the map you will need:

census_api_key("0bab6e4e9563074a456d52b9e83745a7a7305761")

# Download and import election data
# from TN Secretary of State web site:
# https://sos.tn.gov/elections/results

# Get 2016 data

download.file(
  "https://sos-tn-gov-files.s3.amazonaws.com/StateGeneralbyPrecinctNov2016.xlsx",
  "RawElectionData2016.xlsx",
  quiet = TRUE,
  mode = "wb"
)

RawElectionData2016 <- read_xlsx("RawElectionData2016.xlsx")

# Filter, calculate, and select
# to get data of interest
# then store results in MyData dataframe

MyData2016 <- RawElectionData2016%>%
  filter(OFFICENAME == "United States President",
         CANDGROUP == "1") %>%
  mutate(
    Rep16 = PVTALLY1,
    Dem16 = PVTALLY2,
    Total16 = Rep16 + Dem16) %>%
  select(COUNTY, PRECINCT, OFFICENAME, Rep16, Dem16, Total16)

CountyData2016 <- MyData2016 %>% 
  select(COUNTY, Rep16, Dem16, Total16) %>% 
  group_by(COUNTY) %>% 
  summarize(across(everything(), sum)) 

# Get 2020 data

download.file(
  "https://sos-tn-gov-files.tnsosfiles.com/Nov2020PrecinctDetail.xlsx",
  "RawElectionData2020.xlsx",
  quiet = TRUE,
  mode = "wb"
)

RawElectionData2020 <- read_xlsx("RawElectionData2020.xlsx", sheet = "SOFFICEL")

# Filter, calculate, and select
# to get data of interest
# then store results in MyData dataframe

MyData2020 <- RawElectionData2020%>%
  filter(OFFICENAME == "United States President",
         CANDGROUP == "1") %>%
  mutate(
    Rep20 = PVTALLY1,
    Dem20 = PVTALLY2,
    Total20 = Rep20 + Dem20) %>%
  select(COUNTY, PRECINCT, OFFICENAME, Rep20, Dem20, Total20)

MyData2020 <- MyData2020 %>% 
  mutate(COUNTY = case_when(COUNTY == "Dekalb" ~ "DeKalb",
                            TRUE ~ COUNTY))

CountyData2020 <- MyData2020%>% 
  select(COUNTY, Rep20, Dem20, Total20) %>% 
  group_by(COUNTY) %>% 
  summarize(across(everything(), sum)) 

# Get 2024 data

CountyData2024 <- read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/drkblake/Data/refs/heads/main/CountyData2024.csv")

# Merge Data Files

AllData <- left_join(CountyData2016, CountyData2020, by = "COUNTY")
AllData <- left_join(AllData, CountyData2024, by = "COUNTY")

AllData <- AllData %>% 
  mutate(
    Rep16to20 = Rep20-Rep16,
    Dem16to20 = Dem20-Dem16,
    Rep20to24 = Rep24-Rep20,
    Dem20to24 = Dem24-Dem20,
    Rep20finish = case_when(
      Rep16to20 < 0 ~ "Loss",
      Rep16to20 > 0~ "Gain",
      TRUE ~ "No change"),
    Dem20finish = case_when(
      Dem16to20 < 0 ~ "Loss",
      Dem16to20 > 0~ "Gain",
      TRUE ~ "No change"),
    Rep24finish = case_when(
      Rep20to24 < 0 ~ "Loss",
      Rep20to24 > 0~ "Gain",
      TRUE ~ "No change"),
    Dem24finish = case_when(
      Dem20to24 < 0 ~ "Loss",
      Dem20to24 > 0~ "Gain",
      TRUE ~ "No change"))

# Get a county map

CountyMap <- get_acs(geography = "county",
                   state = "TN",
                   variables = c(Japanese_ = "DP05_0048"),
                   year = 2022,
                   survey = "acs5",
                   output = "wide",
                   geometry = TRUE)

CountyMap <- CountyMap %>%
  mutate(COUNTY = (str_remove(NAME," County, Tennessee"))) %>%
  left_join(AllData, CountyMap, by = "COUNTY") %>% 
  select(COUNTY,
         Rep16, Dem16, Total16,
         Rep20, Dem20, Total20,
         Rep24, Dem24, Total24,
         Rep16to20, Dem16to20,
         Rep20to24, Dem20to24,
         Rep20finish,Dem20finish,
         Rep24finish,Dem24finish,
         geometry)

# 2020 Map

Map16to20Rep <- mapview(
  CountyMap,
  zcol = "Rep20finish",
  col.regions = "red",
  layer.name = "Rep 2020",
  popup = popupTable(
    CountyMap,
    feature.id = FALSE,
    row.numbers = FALSE,
    zcol = c("COUNTY", "Rep16", "Rep20", "Rep16to20")
  )
)

mypalette = colorRampPalette(c('blue', 'lightblue'))

Map16to20Dem <- mapview(
  CountyMap,
  zcol = "Dem20finish",
  col.regions = mypalette,
  layer.name = "Dem 2020",
  popup = popupTable(
    CountyMap,
    feature.id = FALSE,
    row.numbers = FALSE,
    zcol = c("COUNTY", "Dem16", "Dem20", "Dem16to20")
  )
)

Map16to20Dem | Map16to20Rep

# 2024 Map

mypalette = colorRampPalette(c('red', 'pink'))

Map20to24Rep <- mapview(
  CountyMap,
  zcol = "Rep24finish",
  col.regions = mypalette,
  layer.name = "Rep 2024",
  popup = popupTable(
    CountyMap,
    feature.id = FALSE,
    row.numbers = FALSE,
    zcol = c("COUNTY", "Rep20", "Rep24", "Rep20to24")
  )
)

mypalette = colorRampPalette(c('blue', 'lightblue'))

Map20to24Dem <- mapview(
  CountyMap,
  zcol = "Dem24finish",
  col.regions = mypalette,
  layer.name = "Dem 2024",
  popup = popupTable(
    CountyMap,
    feature.id = FALSE,
    row.numbers = FALSE,
    zcol = c("COUNTY", "Dem20", "Dem24", "Dem20to24")
  )
)

Map20to24Dem | Map20to24Rep

R Project Portfolio

Kailee Shores

2024-12-03

Intro

GRAPI by Tennessee House district

Proportion of renters overspending on housing, by Tennessee House district

Code

Precinct-level Rutherford County election results from 2022

Rutherford 2022 Gubernatorial election results, by precinct

Code

Early voting location map and code

Early voting locations in Rutherford County

Code

Early voting turnout in Rutherford County, 2024

Vote totals per day

Total early voter turnout in Rutherford County, by precinct

Code

Cable news coverage tracker

All Cable News

MSNBC

CNN

Fox

Code

National election map and electoral vote graphic

Electoral vote map

Electoral votes by candidate

Code

Post-election voting shifts in Tennessee, by county

Voting shifts, 2016-2020

Voting shifts, 2020-2024

Code