Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Uganda, Tanzania, Niger, Ghana, Cameroon, Mozambique, Azerbaijan.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
Our models have a 70% accuracy rate, meaning that when we predict that a major event will occur, we see a major event occur approximately 70% of the time.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)
Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
Azerbaijan
For Azerbaijan, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in August: In Azerbaijan, a political analyst was arrested and charged with illegal drug-related activities. Two individuals were detained for deceiving more than 100 people with false promises of employment in Europe. Additionally, a colonel from the Ministry of Defence faced charges of embezzlement and bribery involving the illegal sale of fuel, and a former head of the Department of Housing of the Ministry of Defence was arrested in connection to a criminal case.
Censorship in July and August: Several foreign journalists were denied entry to an energy industry conference in Baku in early June. The Media Development Agency sought legal action to terminate several media organizations for not registering, resulting in the closure of “kheral.az.” The Russian RIA-Novosti Information Agency’s website was briefly unblocked and then re-blocked, illustrating ongoing restrictions on access to foreign media. Additionally, a journalist from argument.az was summoned by police and questioned in relation to activities involving Toplum TV.
Defamation Cases in August: The trial of the Chairman of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party commenced at the Nasimi District Court due to a defamation complaint by a former party member, under Article 147. 1 of the Azerbaijani Criminal Code.
Disaster in August: A wake ceremony in Ganja, Azerbaijan, resulted in mass food poisoning affecting 93 people who were hospitalized for treatment. A minor earthquake of magnitude 3. 8 occurred in the Caspian Sea, east of Lenkoran, with no reported casualties or significant damage. A mine explosion in the Lachin district led to an evacuation in the area.
Legal Actions in July: The European Court of Human Rights announced rulings involving figures in Azerbaijan, addressing concerns about property rights, freedom of movement, and fair trial rights. Rashid Beglaryan received a 15-year sentence for genocide and terrorism against Azerbaijanis, as ruled by the Fuzuli Military Court. Azerbaijani authorities extended prison terms for 11 journalists, and the Baku Court of Appeal upheld the detention of the director of Abzas Media.
Legal Changes in July: The Competition Code came into effect to enhance market competition, while changes to the Family Code prohibited marriage to cousins. Additionally, the President approved modifications to the State Budget Act for 2024, and the Cabinet of Ministers adjusted excise rates for alcohol and tobacco products. Amendments to the Code on Administrative Misdemeanors also raised fines for driving without an appropriate license.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Cameroon
For Cameroon, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in July and September: Junior Ngombe was detained for incitement and spreading false news, causing reactions from political and civil society groups. Extradited from Gabon, activist Raymond Cota’s arrest drew attention to the legality of such actions. Additionally, Cameroonians in the U.S. were arrested by the FBI for funding the secessionist conflict in Cameroon’s Northwest and South-West regions. Lastly, Abubacar Siddiki Babadji faced re-arrest for public order disruptions after a previous release. In September, judith Marionne Nyandjock, a relative of Chantal Biya, was arrested in Cameroon in connection with a large-scale fraud operation involving several billion CFA francs. Journalist Stéphane Zambo Nguema was detained without valid justification while investigating a Cameroonian authority. Komechou Brillant, a diaspora national suspected of financing terrorist activities in English-speaking regions, was apprehended in Douala. Fah Elvis Tayong, a media critic of President Paul Biya’s regime, was arrested near Bondouma (Buea).
Censorship in August: The National Communication Council (CNC) in Cameroon implemented stringent measures against several media outlets, including the suspension of personnel from Equinoxe TV and RIS Radio, and the sealing of media facilities. Equinoxe TV, a leading television network, was sanctioned, although it had not yet received the suspension notification. The suspension of a journalist from RIS Radio included both a professional ban and closure of the station, amid ongoing concerns about media repression in the country.
Corruption in July, August, and September: A significant financial scandal emerged involving the illegal privatization of state resources and the diversion of 8 billion CFA francs by a mafia network. Additionally, the tax administration was implicated in corruption when two tax inspectors allegedly accepted a bribe to erase a substantial fiscal debt for the French oil company Bourbon. Furthermore, issues in the modernization of the national identification system were highlighted by the stark cost discrepancy compared to a similar project in Kosovo. Allegations of public funds misappropriation arose in the Yaoundé 4 municipality involving local officials, while British American Tobacco faced a legal dispute over land expropriation claims in Yaoundé. In August, there were reports of the Glencore corruption scandal where the company admitted to paying bribes to secure contracts, resulting in legal actions. A military pensions fraud was uncovered, revealing mismanagement and fraudulent activities involving billions of CFA francs, leading to a suspension of family allowances for retired military personnel. Additionally, a land and expropriation scandal involving illegal appropriation of lands emerged, alongside a child allowance fraud where thousands improperly received allowances, causing significant financial loss to the state. A network impersonating officials was also exposed for extorting substantial sums from high-profile individuals. In September, there were reports of the Glencore corruption scandal, which involved alleged payments to Cameroonian officials, as trials continued in the UK. The National Anti-Corruption Commission’s 2023 report disclosed a significant financial loss due to corruption within the country. Additionally, arrests were made in connection with a major fraud operation involving individuals close to the political elite, while unethical practices were reported at ENAM involving bribes for candidate success. Allegations of organ trafficking against a healthcare professional were noted as unsubstantiated.
Defamation Cases in July: In Cameroon, a defamation case was reported involving Serge Siméon Noumba suing Maurice Kamto, the chair of the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC), and two others, which the MRC perceives as a reputational attack involving claims of organized band swindle. Additionally, Samuel Eto’o’s legal team filed a defamation complaint against Richard Naha, Serge Tamba, and Jean Crépin Nyamsi, accusing them of spreading false information.
Disaster in August and September: A monkey smallpox epidemic was declared a continental health emergency by the Africa CDC, with 30 cases reported in Cameroon. Prolonged drought conditions in Northern Cameroon, particularly affecting the Bénoué department, presented a risk of famine, threatening the food security of thousands. The country experienced multiple fatal bus accidents, including one in Kumba involving a Golden Express agency bus and a truck, and another in Mengang. Electrical incidents due to damaged power lines in cities like Douala resulted in at least two fatalities, while sudden floods in the Ouro Labo neighborhood trapped families, necessitating assistance from fire personnel. In September, there were reports of devastating floods in the Far North between August and September 2024, affecting approximately 368,000 people, causing 17 deaths, and resulting in the destruction of 18,000 houses and thousands of hectares of crops. A bus accident on the Falaise of Dschang on the night of September 3-4, 2024, resulted in at least 8 deaths and 62 injuries. Additionally, the HIV crisis remains alarming, particularly among adolescents aged 15 to 24, who account for 30% of new infections, and air pollution has been identified as a significant health threat in the country. A moderate earthquake struck Yaoundé on September 5, 2024, but no major casualties were reported.
Legal Actions in August and September: The Glencore corruption case in Cameroon saw legal actions initiated against alleged perpetrators associated with the National Hydrocarbon Society, impacting the state financially. Former CRTV Director-General was sentenced to 20 years for embezzlement by the Special Criminal Court, impacting media governance in the country. The Cameroonian state approached the International Criminal Court to address crimes by secessionists in the north-west and south-west regions. The trial of journalist Martinez Zogo’s murder drew public attention in Yaoundé as the pursuit of accountability for crimes against journalists continued. Former Minister Polycarpe Abah Abah was convicted for misappropriating public funds, highlighting ongoing anti-corruption efforts within the country’s governance. In September, there was a corruption trial in London involving former Glencore executives implicated high-ranking officials in Cameroon. In Yaoundé, the murder trial of journalist Martinez Zogo continued, with accusations of legal irregularities. Additionally, a fraud investigation saw the re-incarceration of Judith Marionne Nyandjock, a relative of the First Lady, for complicity in fraud. Cameroon also sought the extradition of secessionist leader Ayaba Cho Lucas from Norway. Meanwhile, Director General Bertrand Pierre Soumbou Angoula was accused of corruption linked to admissions at the National School of Administration and Judiciary.
Legal Changes in July: In Cameroon, the National Assembly ratified a decision to extend the terms of office for deputies and municipal councillors by one year. A reform was enacted for the issuance of the National Identity Card by switching to electronic stamp duty payments to combat fraud. Additionally, the President signed a decree to transform the National Investment Corporation in accordance with revised OHADA Uniform Acts. The National Assembly also passed a bill permitting the President to ratify an amendment to the Marrakesh Agreement, aligning with the World Trade Organization’s global trade framework.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Ghana
For Ghana, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in September: Activism against illegal mining, or “galamsey,” involved civil society organizations demanding government action and threatening strikes and protests. The National Democratic Congress highlighted discrepancies in the voters’ register, prompting nationwide demonstrations for electoral transparency. Environmental groups called for measures like a ‘Climate Damages Tax’ and legal action to stop mining in forest reserves, while the Consumer Protection Agency criticized delays in enacting legislation to safeguard consumers from unfair practices.
Arrests in September: Numerous arrests took place in Ghana in September 2024. In Kumasi, over 487 individuals linked to an alleged Ponzi scheme by QNET were arrested for engaging in fraudulent investment activities. In Accra, 39 members of the Democracy Hub were detained during protests against economic mismanagement and illegal mining. Additionally, in a cross-border operation, four Ghanaians were convicted in the UK for smuggling cannabis from Ghana, concealed in sacks of gari powder. The Awutu Breku court granted bail to three National Democratic Congress members arrested for removing political posters, and Ibrahim Mohammed, another NDC member, was arrested for making public threats against officials.
Censorship in July: A former solicitor for the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Ghana was legally restrained from revealing confidential information by a High Court injunction. The King of the Gonja Kingdom imposed a ban on the Minister of Lands and Natural Resources from participating in Damongo chieftaincy matters. Additionally, the Greater Accra Regional Security Council halted private construction along Laboma Beach to protect the ecological integrity of the Kpeshie Lagoon.
Corruption in July and August: The events in Ghana included a major corruption case involving a former Goldman Sachs executive accused of orchestrating bribes to Ghanaian officials to secure a power plant deal, as well as the arraignment of the CEO of Menzgold Ghana Limited for defrauding clients through fraudulent investments. Additionally, documents published by a Member of Parliament alleged a procurement scandal involving ambulance spare parts authorized by a former Finance Minister, and legal action was initiated over unauthorized developments by Frimps Oil Company on public land. Furthermore, the Court of Appeal acquitted the Minority Leader and a businessman in a financial loss case related to an ambulance procurement, highlighting legal debates on political accountability. In August, investigations by the Office of the Special Prosecutor into the Airbus scandal concluded without finding evidence of bribery or corruption against the implicated individuals, including a former president. Five NGOs filed a lawsuit against the government to recover over GH¢1 billion allegedly misappropriated in contracts awarded to Strategic Mobilisation Limited, highlighting issues of financial mismanagement and procurement law breaches. The trial of a former CEO of Ghana COCOBOD related to a GH¢271 million fertiliser deal has been postponed to 2024, while other accusations and legal charges have been made against various individuals and entities for corruption-related offenses, including the illegal sale of state lands and forgery activities.
Defamation Cases in July and August: Sammy Gyamfi filed a lawsuit against Asaase Radio and ABC News, Johnson Asiedu Nketia defended himself against a suit by Professor Dua Agyeman, and Kwame Blay sued Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa over alleged defamatory statements. Additionally, Alberta Maame Afia Akoto initiated legal action against Kwame Asare Obeng, and Bright Simons proceeded with a counter-suit against Fidelity Bank following a court ruling. In August, there were reports of a suit by a former Deputy CEO of MASLOC seeking damages for harmful claims made on social media. Additionally, a former Auditor-General filed a substantial defamation suit against a political party chairman. Legal actions related to defamation were also advised and pursued concerning political rivalries and controversial allegations.
Security Mobilization in September: There were reports of road blockages in Accra by the Ghana Police Service during negotiations over a protest and the deployment of security forces to address illegal mining activities. Additionally, the Ghana Police and military ensured security during a rerun of the New Patriotic Party’s parliamentary primary in Walewale, and the Upper East Regional Police were mobilized during a nationwide demonstration by the NDC in Bolgatanga. Furthermore, 106,223 National Service personnel were deployed across the country for the 2024/2025 service year to support national development.
Protests in July and September: Protests occurred in Ghana involving Organised Labour, which halted the planned sale of SSNIT hotels due to concerns over transparency. Additionally, the Civil and Local Government Staff Association of Ghana initiated a nationwide strike over salary issues, leading to service disruptions. Other protests involved demands for the resignation of the Bank of Ghana’s leadership, public discontent over infrastructure neglect, and unauthorized land sales in Greater Accra, reflecting broader civic and economic concerns. In September, several protests and demonstrations occurred in Ghana in September 2024. The Democracy Hub conducted protests against illegal mining, resulting in the arrest of 53 demonstrators. The National Democratic Congress held a nationwide demonstration calling for a forensic audit of the voters’ register, leading to confrontations with police. Freight forwarders in Tema protested high fees from shipping lines, while the Volta River Authority staff demonstrated against a proposed merger. Additionally, a coalition of pro-family organizations marched in Accra demanding action on the Pro-Family Values Bill.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Mozambique
For Mozambique, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in September: During the general election campaign in Mozambique, 30 people were arrested nationwide for involvement in illegal activities, mainly related to the destruction of election propaganda materials. In Zambezia Province, six citizens were arrested for similar electoral violations amid reports of increased irregularities. Additionally, a lawyer in Beira was detained for suspected money laundering linked to illegal wood extraction, while in Cabo Delgado, two individuals were arrested for allegedly collaborating with terrorist groups. In Nicoadala District, Zambezia Province, three individuals were arrested for attempting to sell a pangolin, reflecting ongoing efforts to combat illegal wildlife trade.
Corruption in August: The former Finance Minister was convicted in the United States for conspiracy related to the “hidden debts” scandal involving over two billion US dollars. Additionally, a large-scale anti-money laundering operation in Maputo led to multiple arrests and the seizure of hundreds of vehicles, while separate investigations targeted corruption involving senior Defence Ministry officials and members of the Armed Forces, as well as a bribery case involving an INAE official.
Legal Changes in August: The Mozambican parliament passed amendments to the electoral legislation, transferring the authority to order vote recounts from district courts to the Constitutional Council. The Assembly of the Republic adopted a revised statute for judicial magistrates intended to prevent a planned strike and align more closely with Mozambique’s socio-economic context. Additionally, the Ministry of Labour introduced new regulations for foreign labor, recognizing micro-companies and adapting to the size of Mozambican companies. The government also approved a resolution on the tariff offer for the African Continental Free Trade Area, advancing Mozambique’s integration into regional trade networks.
Security Mobilization in September: The Mozambican Armed Defence Forces reinforced their presence in the coastal area of Macomia, Cabo Delgado, in response to movements of terrorist groups. The EU Election Observation Mission decided to deploy a team in Cabo Delgado for the forthcoming general elections. Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi called on the Rapid Intervention Unit to strengthen strategies against terrorism in Cabo Delgado. Municipal authorities in Mocímboa da Praia announced traffic restrictions from midnight to enhance vigilance.
Protests in July and August: Medical professionals in Mozambique planned and then postponed a 21-day strike due to issues with the National Health Service. Judges in Mozambique initiated a 30-day strike beginning on August 9, concerning the implementation of the Single Salary Table. Supporters of the Democratic Alliance Coalition protested the National Elections Commission’s exclusion of their participation from upcoming elections. Residents in Pateque and the CMC neighborhood protested over unmet electrification promises and uncollected garbage, respectively. In August, semi-collective passenger transporters on the Matola-Gare route halted activities to protest increased toll rates, impacting the city’s transportation system. The Democratic Alliance Coalition organized demonstrations against their exclusion from the upcoming general elections, using symbolic actions. Additionally, Mozambican police used tear gas against a Renamo march in Gurue, intended to introduce their candidate for governor of Zambezia. Judges planned a nationwide strike to demand improvements and financial independence, which was later suspended. The Mozambican Medical Association also announced the suspension of a doctors’ strike.
Purge/Replace in August: The Supreme Council of the Judiciary of the Public Prosecutor’s Office dismissed numerous law officers for abuse of power and corruption, indicating a large-scale purge affecting the judicial system. Additionally, the President made several leadership changes, including in the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Secretary of State position.
Raids in July: Recent events in Mozambique included the dismantling of a narcotics factory in Vundiça, Moamba district, by the Central Office for Combating Organized and Transnational Crime, involving Mexican and Nigerian citizens. The Mozambican police seized a property in Matola used by kidnappers, while the Tax Authority dismantled a clandestine warehouse in Maputo Province to curb illegal ethanol trade. Additionally, ongoing terrorist threats led to the closure of 214 schools in Macomia district, Cabo Delgado province, affecting over 18,000 students after a terrorist attack in May.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Niger
For Niger, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in September: Recent events in Niger included a flood relief effort organized by the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations in Maradi, where substantial food aid was provided to affected residents. Additionally, the Italian NGO Medici per i Droiti Humani launched a project promoting peaceful coexistence and inter-religious dialogue in collaboration with local and international partners. The orphanage ‘Oumar Bello Barkiré’ also received humanitarian assistance from the NGO Ensemble Main in Main Niger-Russia, which provided food, school materials, and toys.
Disaster in August and September: Severe floods caused by heavy rainfall in Niger resulted in at least 217 deaths, 200 injuries, and affected over 353,000 people, with extensive damage to homes and infrastructure across multiple regions. In Niamey, Niger, the critical water level of the Niger River reached 620 cm, putting surrounding neighborhoods at risk of flooding and leading authorities to implement red alert measures. In the Zinder region of Niger, health authorities investigated two suspected cases of monkeypox following regional concerns due to confirmed cases and deaths in nearby Nigeria. In September, heavy rains in Niger around late August 2024 caused devastating floods in the Maradi and Agadez regions, resulting in at least 15 deaths, injuries to approximately 20 people, and significant damage to infrastructure and homes. The continuous rainfall led to widespread flooding throughout the country, disrupting daily life and damaging infrastructure, including roads and schools, delaying the start of the school year. Additionally, cholera outbreaks in Tahoua and Karofane since early September resulted in nine deaths and over two hundred infections, further complicating the public health situation in Niger.
Non-lethal Violence in July: A unit of the Defence and Security Forces in Niger repelled an attack by terrorist armed groups in the Tera area, neutralizing 21 terrorists and seizing vehicles. The National Armed Forces conducted an anti-terrorist operation in Tillabéri, neutralizing four extremist fighters and capturing three in response to an ambush. The Defence and Security Forces countered an ambush by Boko Haram near N-guel Kolo, pursuing the attackers to a logistics base. Soldiers participating in Operation “Faraoutar Bushiya” recovered approximately 100 stolen animals and repelled an armed bandit attack near Maidabaro. An increase in violence by non-State armed groups in Burkina Faso prompted thousands of Burkinabic civilians to seek refuge in Niger, exacerbating the humanitarian situation in Tillabéry.
Forecasting
Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Niger.
Tanzania
For Tanzania, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in August: In Tanzania, over 520 members of the opposition party CHADEMA were arrested during Youth Day celebrations, which were perceived as political gatherings in regions such as Mbeya and Dar es Salaam. In the Katavi region, more than 134 suspects were detained as part of a police operation targeting criminal activities. Several security officers in Dar es Salaam were arrested following a gang rape case, and in Morogoro, four individuals were detained for illegal possession of elephant tusks, underscoring broader efforts to combat wildlife crime. Additionally, a previous arrest of an individual accused of burning a picture of President Samia Suluhu Hassan has led to concerns after the individual went missing in Mbeya.
Corruption in July: Five educational officers in Singida Region were charged with abuse of power and forgery by the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau. In Dar es Salaam, a court confiscated significant funds from a Chinese citizen, and ZAS Investment Company faced legal issues over loan repayment. Additionally, four police officers in Kilimanjaro Region were dismissed for evidence tampering, and a Regional Commissioner was found guilty of power abuse by the Commission for Human Rights and Good Governance.
Defamation Cases in July and September: Vodacom Tanzania was summoned by the High Court in a defamation lawsuit filed by journalist Erick Kabendera, emphasizing the tensions between corporate interests and journalistic freedom in Tanzania. In September, in Tanzania, the chairman of the main opposition party announced plans to sue a former Member of Parliament over alleged defamatory remarks. This case reflects ongoing political tensions within the country’s political landscape.
Legal Actions in July and August: The Court of Appeal in Tanzania upheld a 20-year imprisonment sentence for four individuals involved in trafficking heroin and cocaine hydrochloride, dismissing an appeal against a previous High Court judgment. The High Court in Dar es Salaam summoned Vodacom Tanzania to present documents in a $10 million claim defense by a journalist. The Mwanza Resident Magistrate’s Court commenced a closed-door criminal trial against a former regional commissioner facing separate charges. Additionally, the Kisutu Resident Magistrate’s Court confiscated a large sum from a Chinese citizen, sentencing him for illegal currency trading. The High Court in Dar es Salaam began hearing evidence in a $32 million loan dispute involving ZAS Investment Company Limited and Equity Banks of Tanzania and Kenya. In August, orca Energy Group Inc filed a $1. 2 billion claim against the United Republic of Tanzania and the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation. Chadema, Tanzania’s main opposition party, initiated legal proceedings against a senior police officer and the deputy Registrar of Political Parties due to the cancellation of a youth event. The Dodoma Resident Magistrates’ Court handled a gang rape case drawing public attention, while in Arusha, the Court of Appeal overturned a 30-year sentence in a case of alleged rape involving a father and his daughter. In Iringa, a senior lecturer lost an appeal for defamation compensation against a bishop of the Evangelical Lutheran Church.
Purge/Replace in July: In Tanzania, a major government reshuffle led by President Samia Suluhu Hassan resulted in the dismissal of several high-profile officials, including ministers, as part of significant political maneuvering within the ruling party. A crackdown on corruption saw four traffic police officers in Mwanga District dismissed for tampering with speed camera evidence, while a notable shift in the ruling CCM party occurred with the resignation of its Vice Chairperson. Additionally, Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa suspended two district council officials to investigate alleged financial mismanagement, and the Shehe of Kidatu Ward was suspended for violating religious values, reflecting the intertwining of governance and religious authority.
Lethal Violence in September: The abduction and killing of a political figure in Dar es Salaam was condemned by multiple international entities. In Dodoma, a deadly attack resulted in the deaths of three family members, while a violent altercation at a police station in Geita led to two fatalities, including a student. Additionally, an investigation is ongoing in Handeni, Tanga, where three individuals were found murdered in a burned car.
Non-lethal Violence in August and September: The Tanzania Human Rights and Good Governance Commission condemned a video of a violent sexual assault, sparking discussions on human rights. In Morogoro, an anti-drug operation led to the destruction of cannabis fields and multiple arrests, highlighting drug enforcement efforts. Accusations against security officers for sexual violence drew criticism from organizations like the Tanganyika Law Society. Additionally, a clash between police and the opposition party Chadema in Dar es Salaam reignited debates on political tensions. In September, concerns over security were heightened in Tanzania following the reported abduction of a Chadema national secretariat member, impacting the political climate in Dar es Salaam. In Unguja, tensions rose after an attack on a Chama Cha Mapinduzi member, involving arson and allegations of sabotage, prompting calls for police intervention. Additionally, an event in Singida for Enrollment Officers Assistants proceeded without incident, and the Kilombero Nature Forest Reserve in Ifakara continued to be valued as an environmental asset with no incidents reported.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Uganda
For Uganda, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in August: Petitions and protests were central to recent events in Uganda, with victims of the Lord’s Resistance Army and civil society organizations urging Parliament to prioritize a National Transitional Justice policy. Undeployed medical interns petitioned the government to address their deployment crisis, while civil society organizations opposed the rejection of the Alcohol Control Bill 2023, reflecting advocacy for public health measures. Additionally, there were calls for stronger institutions to protect land rights, and significant civic engagement was demonstrated through a petition to censure an MP over misconduct allegations.
Disaster in August: The collapse of the Kiteezi landfill in Wakiso District claimed over 30 lives and displaced 286 people, raising concerns about waste management practices in Kampala. Uganda faced a public health emergency due to an increase in Mpox (Monkeypox) cases imported from the Democratic Republic of Congo, prompting action from health authorities and the Africa CDC. Severe flooding in Ntoroko District, caused by the River Semuliki, displaced hundreds and disrupted access to vital roads, affecting local livelihoods. Several road accidents across the country resulted in numerous fatalities and injuries, highlighting the severity of road-related incidents. Additionally, Uganda continued to face a significant public health crisis due to rising HIV prevalence, particularly among urban populations and adolescent girls.
Protests in July and August: In Uganda, young people led anti-corruption protests to Parliament, facing security force crackdowns and over 100 arrests. Traders in Kampala protested high taxes and the Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing Solution, threatening a city-wide business closure. In Kasokoso, residents protested potential evictions without land compensation, leading to police teargas intervention. Casual workers at the Busoga Forestry Company protested delayed wages, demanding fair treatment and payment. Additionally, Sebei College students in Kapchorwa District struck against meal program changes, causing property damage and resulting in the suspension of 264 students. In August, recent events in Uganda included a two-day strike by Kampala City traders who protested against the cancellation of a meeting with the President and voiced tax-related grievances. Medical interns also protested due to delays and irregularities in their deployment process. Additionally, parents from Equator High in Masaka protested over the withholding of their children’s exam results. In Hoima City, over 150 individuals protested against the East African Crude Oil Pipeline project, while youth in Jinja conducted anti-corruption protests demanding the resignation of a parliamentary speaker.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.