Project Overview

Motivation

Elections are a cornerstone of democracy in the United States, offering citizens a chance to express their political preferences by voting for candidates who best represent their values and policy priorities. This decision-making process is influenced by a variety of factors, including individual characteristics like gender, race, economic circumstances, and regional dynamics. The 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections stand out in specific as pivotal moments in the nation’s political landscape, reflecting significant shifts in voter decisions at national, state, and local levels. This research focuses on examining voter behavior in Minnesota, a state with diverse demographics and a complex political terrain(Carleton College’s State). By analyzing Minnesota’s county-level election results and the corresponding economic factors, such as median income estimates and poverty estimates for each county in 2012 and 2016, this study will explore the evolving dynamics of voting behavior.

Objectives

Through this project, we sought to answer four primary questions:

How did voter behavior in Minnesota change between the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections?
Which counties saw significant shifts in party support, and how can demographic factors explain these changes?
What role did median income and poverty levels play in influencing voter preferences and turnout?
Additionally, how did urban and rural areas in Minnesota differ in terms of voter participation and party support during these two election years?

This analysis will offer insights into how local economic conditions, such as median income and poverty levels, may have contributed to shifts in political support. By investigating the geographical and socioeconomic factors at play, this research will provide a nuanced understanding of regional political dynamics in Minnesota and offer broader insights into trends in voter behavior across the United States during this period. Through these lenses, the study will also indirectly explore the role of political campaigns in shaping outcomes in specific counties and regions, considering the differences observed between 2012 and 2016.

Minnesota Political History

Minnesota has a rich political history, consistently leaning Democratic, having voted Democratic 65.6% of the time in presidential elections from 1900 to 2024. However, the state has become increasingly polarized, especially between urban and rural areas. While Minnesota has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2000, it has only aligned with the winning candidate 42.9% of the time in recent elections. The urban-rural divide grew during the Trump era, with rural areas becoming more Republican, and urban areas, particularly the Twin Cities, remaining strongly Democratic. This divide extends to policy issues like COVID-19 and economic concerns, with suburban voters becoming more moderate. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for analyzing Minnesota’s electoral behavior, political party alignment, and public opinion.

Analysis

This analysis employed several data visualizations to explore voting behavior and economic factors in Minnesota between 2012 and 2016. An interactive map showed county-level political outcomes, allowing us to identify which counties were “red” or “blue” in each election.

This map also allowed us to identify shifts in party allegiance, revealing counties that swung Democratic or Republican between the two election years.

Economic factors were explored through poverty estimates, highlighting the top five counties with the highest poverty rates in both 2012 and 2016.

The first two choropleth maps displayed median income estimates, with darker colors representing areas with the lowest incomes, particularly in southeastern Minnesota. The last two choropleth maps illustrated population of people in poverty by county. These findings underscore the role of economic divides and urban-rural differences in shaping electoral outcomes, offering valuable insights into voter behavior and political trends.

Limitations

Future research could explore the impact of demographic variables such as age, race, and education on voting patterns, and further investigate how political messaging and media influence electoral decisions in Minnesota. Understanding local dynamics provides a critical context for interpreting national political trends.