class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Spatial Analysis of Correctional Risk Factors ] .subtitle[ ## Bayesian INLA Model for Correctional Risk ] .author[ ### Sheena Yoon ] .institute[ ### Department of Economics, University of Utah; Utah Commission on Criminal and Juvenile Justice ] .date[ ### 2024-11-22 ] --- class: left, middle, inverse --- # Research Question .large[ ### 1. How is the correctional population spatially distributed across neighborhoods in Utah? ### 2. What are the neighborhood risks associated with the correctional population? ] ??? Presenter notes: - Emphasize spatial variation - Focus on risk factors - Consider policy implications class: left, center --- # Why does this matter for policy research? #### Parole population in UT (and nationwide) has been facing a particular large increase due to technical violations and increases in new crimes for non-violent/drug possession related crimes. Since 2012, the probation population increased by 17.8 percent and 47.1 percent for the parole population due to a significant increase in admissions. Moreover, probation revocations grew by 42 percent and parolee revocations grew by 42 percent between 2015 and 2018. ### More effective resource allocation decisions with scarce budgets! --- # Neighborhood Effects: Data Support <img src="neighborhood_effects.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- # Literature Review .large[ 1. Simes (2021) - [Punishing Places](https://www.ucpress.edu/books/punishing-places/paper) * Extensive study examining neighborhood effects on incarcerated individuals. First to conceptualize "punishment vulnerability" embedded in place. 2. Sampson, R. J. (2012) - [Great American City: Chicago and the Enduring Neighborhood Effect.](https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/G/bo220538022.html) * Neighborhoods social cohesion shape long term outcomes and spatial inequality. Links neighborhood effects to mass incarceration. 3. Chetty et al. (2018) - [The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility](https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25147.html#refs) * Places with high rates of poverty, single-parent households, and lack of exposure to adults who are college-educated causally impact income, health, incarceration, and college attendance outcomes. 4. Simes & Jahn (2022) - [The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35020737/) * Arrests decreased with Medicaid expansion, 25-41% negative difference in drug arrests in first 3 years. 5. Sharkey et al. (2017) - [Community and the Crime Decline: The Causal Effect of Local Nonprofits on Violent Crime](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0003122417736289) * Every 10 additional organizations focusing on crime and community life in a city leads to a 9 percent reduction in the murder rate, a 6 percent reduction in the violent crime rate, and a 4 percent reduction in the property crime rate. ] --- # Literature Review .large[ 4. Simes & Jahn (2022) - [The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35020737/) * Arrests decreased with Medicaid expansion, 25-41% negative difference in drug arrests in first 3 years. 5. Sharkey et al. (2017) - [Community and the Crime Decline: The Causal Effect of Local Nonprofits on Violent Crime](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0003122417736289) * Every 10 additional organizations focusing on crime and community life in a city leads to a 9 percent reduction in the murder rate, a 6 percent reduction in the violent crime rate, and a 4 percent reduction in the property crime rate. ] --- # Data Sources .panelset[ .panel[.panel-name[Corrections Data] **Utah Department of Corrections** * Correctional address data (2016-2023) * Geocoded to census tracts, only residential addresses extracted * 86,734 original observations --> **47,529 final observations** * 35, 052 unique IDs (many repeated addresses at different episodes) * Supervision type categories: Parole or Probation * Risk assessment scores * Violation reports * Demographic ] .panel[.panel-name[Census Variables] **ACS Census Data 5-year estimates (2017-2022)** * Population demographics * children * median age * Socioeconomic indicators * unemployment * public assistance * female headed households ] .panel[.panel-name[Healthy Places Index] **Utah Healthy Places Index Variables** * Air quality measures * diesel particulate matter * Health * insurance enrollment, life expectancy * Transportation access * automobile access, bike lane access, traffic * Community cohesion/collective efficacy * census response * Housing characteristics * overcrowded, housing repair, home ownership, rent severe * Employment statistics: unemployment * Economic: per capita income * Education levels: bachelor's degree ] ] --- # Spatial Distribution of Correctional Population <div class="leaflet html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-bfe9bf55cf83abd5cc77" style="width:100%;height:432px;"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-bfe9bf55cf83abd5cc77">{"x":{"options":{"crs":{"crsClass":"L.CRS.EPSG3857","code":null,"proj4def":null,"projectedBounds":null,"options":{}}},"calls":[{"method":"addTiles","args":["https://{s}.tile.openstreetmap.org/{z}/{x}/{y}.png",null,null,{"minZoom":0,"maxZoom":18,"tileSize":256,"subdomains":"abc","errorTileUrl":"","tms":false,"noWrap":false,"zoomOffset":0,"zoomReverse":false,"opacity":1,"zIndex":1,"detectRetina":false,"attribution":"©