Habituation re-analysis

library(tidyverse)

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library(here)

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library(nlme)

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library(lme4)

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library(rugarch)

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Goal: analyzing the relationship between habituation patterns and the dishabituation magnitude across three datasets.

• Adult dataset: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tops.12631
• Preschooler dataset: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5f38t3cd
• Infant dataset: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-01965-x

1. Dataset prepping

adult_d <- read_csv(here("data/raw/adult_data.csv"))

## Rows: 18198 Columns: 11
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (6): subject, block_type, task_type, trial_type, stimulus_displayed, tas...
## dbl (5): block_number, deviant_position, trial_number, trial_looking_time, t...
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preschooler_d <- read_csv(here("data/raw/preschooler_data.csv"))

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## chr (11): subject, bing_id, child_age_group, block_type, trial_type, block_b...
## dbl  (6): age_in_months, block_number, trial_number, deviant_position, trial...
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infant_d <- read_csv(here("data/raw/infant_data.csv"))

## Rows: 2078 Columns: 44
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## chr (19): paper, long_cite, short_cite, doi, expt_cond, pretty_cond_name, su...
## dbl (25): expt_num, agedays, train1, train2, train3, train4, train5, train6,...
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1.1 Prep adult dataset

Focusing on only the first block and blocks with more than two trials

adult_habituation_data <- adult_d %>% 
  # fist block
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  # before the dishabituation trials
  filter(trial_number < deviant_position) %>% 
  # filtering out blocks with only two trials
  filter(deviant_position != 2) %>% 
  # only keeping the relevant information 
  select(subject, trial_number, trial_looking_time) 

1.2 Prep preschooler datset

# figure out what blocks to retain
retained_blocks <- preschooler_d %>% 
  distinct(subject, block_number, trial_number, trial_type) %>% 
  filter(trial_type == "deviant") %>% 
  filter(trial_number > 2) %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  mutate(deviant_trial_number = trial_number)


preschooler_habituation_data <- preschooler_d %>% 
  # these are participants that have the first block meeting the criteria 
  filter(subject %in% retained_blocks$subject) %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  left_join(retained_blocks %>% select(-trial_number, -trial_type), by = c("subject", "block_number")) %>% 
  filter(trial_number < deviant_trial_number) %>% 
  select(subject, trial_number, trial_looking_time, age_in_months) 

1.3 Prep infant dataset

infant_habituation_data <- infant_d %>% 
  select(paper, subj, agedays, starts_with("train")) %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("train")) %>% 
  filter(!is.na(value)) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = str_replace(name, "train", "")) %>% 
  rename(trial_looking_time = value) %>% 
  rename(subject = subj, age_in_days = agedays) %>% 
  select(paper, subject, trial_number, trial_looking_time, age_in_days) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = as.numeric(trial_number))

2. Measure prepping

2.1 Prep slope measure

2.1.1 Setting up helper function

# running the information 
get_individual_slope <- function(data){
  
  mixed_exp_model <- nlme(
  trial_looking_time ~ a * exp(b * trial_number),  # Simplified exponential decay model
  data = data,
  fixed = a + b ~ 1,                # Fixed effects for a and b
  random = b ~ 1 | subject,         # Random effect for b (decay rate) by subject
  start = c(a = max(data$trial_looking_time), 
            b = -0.05)  # Starting values
  )
  
  # Extract random effects (individual decay rates)
  random_effects <- ranef(mixed_exp_model)$b

  # Combine fixed effect with random effect for individual slopes
  fixed_decay_rate <- fixef(mixed_exp_model)["b"]
  individual_decay_rates <- fixed_decay_rate + random_effects

  # Create a data frame to store the slopes for each participant
  slopes <- data.frame(
    subject = rownames(ranef(mixed_exp_model)),
    decay_rate = individual_decay_rates
  )
  
  return(slopes)
}

2.1.2 Demo how the curve chnages shape

# Define a function for the exponential decay
decay_model <- function(trial_number, a, b) {
  a * exp(b * trial_number)
}

# Create a data frame with different combinations of a and b
trial_data <- expand.grid(
  trial_number = seq(0, 10, by = 0.1),
  a = c(10, 20, 30),  # Different initial values
  b = c(-0.1, -0.2, -0.3)  # Different decay rates
)

# Calculate the looking time based on the decay model
trial_data <- trial_data %>%
  mutate(trial_looking_time = decay_model(trial_number, a, b))

# Plot the curves
ggplot(trial_data, aes(x = trial_number, y = trial_looking_time, color = factor(a), linetype = factor(b))) +
  geom_line(size = 1) +
  labs(
    title = "Effect of Parameters 'a' and 'b' on Exponential Decay Curve",
    x = "Trial Number",
    y = "Trial Looking Time",
    color = "Initial Value (a)",
    linetype = "Decay Rate (b)"
  ) +
  theme_minimal()

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2.1.3 Fitting the models to all the datasets

adult_slope_df <- get_individual_slope(adult_habituation_data)
preschooler_slope_df <- get_individual_slope(preschooler_habituation_data)
infant_slope_df <- get_individual_slope(infant_habituation_data)

2.2 Prep volatility measure

2.2.1 Setting up helper function

get_volatility_measures <- function(data){
  
  # Initialize an empty list to store GARCH volatility results
garch_volatility_list <- list()

# Group by participant and calculate each volatility measure
volatility_summary <- data %>%
  group_by(subject) %>%
  summarize(
    # 1. Standard Deviation
    sd_volatility = sd(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE),
    
    # 2. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
    mad_volatility = mean(abs(trial_looking_time - mean(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE)), na.rm = TRUE),
    
    # 3. Coefficient of Variation (CV)
    cv_volatility = sd(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE) / mean(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE),
    
    # 4. Range-Based Volatility
    range_volatility = max(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE) - min(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE),
    
    # 5. Median Absolute Deviation (MAD - Robust Version)
    mad_robust_volatility = median(abs(trial_looking_time - median(trial_looking_time, na.rm = TRUE)), na.rm = TRUE)
  )


# Calculate GARCH-based volatility for each participant and add to the volatility_summary
for (subject_id in unique(data$subject)) {
  # Subset data for each participant
  participant_data <- filter(data, subject == subject_id)$trial_looking_time
  
  # Specify and fit GARCH model if there are enough data points
  if (length(participant_data) > 5) {  # Minimum data points to fit GARCH - doesn't work 
    spec <- ugarchspec(variance.model = list(model = "sGARCH"), mean.model = list(armaOrder = c(1, 1)))
    fit <- tryCatch(ugarchfit(spec = spec, data = participant_data), error = function(e) NULL)
    
    if (!is.null(fit)) {
      # Extract the average conditional volatility from the GARCH model
      avg_garch_volatility <- mean(sigma(fit), na.rm = TRUE)
    } else {
      avg_garch_volatility <- NA
    }
  } else {
    avg_garch_volatility <- NA
  }
  
  # Add the GARCH volatility to the list for each subject
  garch_volatility_list[[as.character(subject_id)]] <- avg_garch_volatility
}

# Convert GARCH volatility list to data frame and merge with other volatility measures
garch_volatility_df <- data.frame(
  subject = names(garch_volatility_list),
  garch_volatility = unlist(garch_volatility_list)
)

# Combine the GARCH results with the other volatility measures
volatility_summary <- left_join(volatility_summary, garch_volatility_df, by = "subject")
  
return(volatility_summary)
}

2.2.2 Fit with each dataset

adult_volatility_measure <- get_volatility_measures(adult_habituation_data)
preschooler_volatility_measure <-  get_volatility_measures(preschooler_habituation_data)
infant_volatility_measure <-  get_volatility_measures(infant_habituation_data)

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## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in summary.lm(fit): essentially perfect fit: summary may be unreliable

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in summary.lm(fit): essentially perfect fit: summary may be unreliable

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in summary.lm(fit): essentially perfect fit: summary may be unreliable

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->warning: solver failer to converge.

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation
## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

## Warning in arima(data, order = c(modelinc[2], 0, modelinc[3]), include.mean =
## modelinc[1], : possible convergence problem: optim gave code = 1

## Warning in .sgarchfit(spec = spec, data = data, out.sample = out.sample, : 
## ugarchfit-->waring: using less than 100 data
##  points for estimation

2.3 Put together all the measures

adult_measures <- adult_volatility_measure %>% 
  left_join(adult_slope_df, by = c("subject"))

preschooler_measures <- preschooler_volatility_measure %>% 
  left_join(preschooler_slope_df, by = c("subject"))

infant_measures <- infant_volatility_measure %>% 
  left_join(infant_slope_df, by = c("subject"))

3. Dishabituation and measure dataset prepping

3.1 Adult

3.1.2 get residual

adult_full_model <- lmerTest::lmer(log(trial_looking_time) ~ I(exp(1)**(-trial_number)) * trial_type * block_type + (1 | subject), data = adult_d)
adult_d$resid <- resid(adult_full_model)

# resid at dishabituation magnitude
adult_resid_d <- adult_d %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  filter(trial_number == deviant_position) %>% 
  filter(deviant_position != 2) %>% 
  select(subject, resid)

3.1.3 link age

get the mapping between prolific ID and subject ID to extract the age information

raw_adult <- read_csv(here("data/raw/adult_raw_with_prolific.csv"))

## Rows: 61497 Columns: 28
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (18): rt, responses, trial_type, internal_node_id, subject, view_history...
## dbl  (8): trial_index, time_elapsed, minimum_viewing_duration, trial_looking...
## lgl  (2): success, trial_stimulus
## 
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

prolific_d <- read_csv(here("data/raw/adult_prolific.csv"))

## Rows: 497 Columns: 19
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr  (13): session_id, participant_id, status, started_datetime, completed_d...
## dbl   (5): time_taken, age, num_approvals, num_rejections, prolific_score
## time  (1): reviewed_at_datetime
## 
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.

subject_prolific_link <- raw_adult %>% 
  filter(grepl("p_id", responses)) %>% 
  mutate(prolific_id = str_extract(responses, '(?<="p_id":")[^"]+')) %>% 
  select(subject, prolific_id)

link_df <- prolific_d %>% 
  rename(prolific_id = participant_id) %>% 
  select(prolific_id, age) %>% 
  left_join(subject_prolific_link, by = c("prolific_id"))

adult_resid_d <- adult_resid_d %>% 
  left_join(link_df %>% select(-prolific_id), by = c("subject")) 

3.1.3 combine with the measures

adult_measures_with_resid <- adult_resid_d %>% 
  left_join(adult_measures, by = c("subject"))

3.2 Preschooler

preschooler_full_model <- lmerTest::lmer(log(trial_looking_time) ~ I(exp(1)**(-trial_number)) * trial_type  + (1 | subject), data = preschooler_d)
preschooler_d$resid <- resid(preschooler_full_model)

# resid at dishabituation magnitude
preschooler_resid_d <- preschooler_d %>% 
  filter(subject %in% retained_blocks$subject) %>% 
  filter(block_number == 1) %>% 
  left_join(retained_blocks %>% select(-trial_number, -trial_type), by = c("subject", "block_number")) %>% 
  filter(trial_number == deviant_trial_number) %>% 
  select(subject, trial_number, resid, age_in_months)
  
preschooler_measures_with_resid <- preschooler_resid_d %>% 
  left_join(preschooler_measures, by = c("subject"))

3.3 Infants

3.1.1 Re-wrangle some datasets

# try to construct the dataset to mimic the other ones, using only first of the unexpected as the "dishabituating trials"
# figure out the trial number for the extra trial
last_trial_number <- infant_d %>% 
  select(paper, subj, agedays, starts_with("train"), "expected1") %>% 
  rename(trainEXTRA = expected1) %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("train")) %>% 
  filter(!is.na(value)) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = as.numeric(str_replace(name, "train", ""))) %>% 
 group_by(paper, subj) %>% 
  summarise(max_trial = max(trial_number, na.rm = TRUE)) %>% 
  mutate(last_trial = max_trial + 1) %>% 
  select(paper, subj, last_trial) %>% 
  ungroup() %>% 
  filter(!last_trial == -Inf)

## Warning: There was 1 warning in `mutate()`.
## ℹ In argument: `trial_number = as.numeric(str_replace(name, "train", ""))`.
## Caused by warning:
## ! NAs introduced by coercion

## Warning: There were 6 warnings in `summarise()`.
## The first warning was:
## ℹ In argument: `max_trial = max(trial_number, na.rm = TRUE)`.
## ℹ In group 53: `paper = "brandone_2009"` and `subj = "2"`.
## Caused by warning in `max()`:
## ! no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
## ℹ Run `dplyr::last_dplyr_warnings()` to see the 5 remaining warnings.

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'paper'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.

#preschooler_full_model <- lmerTest::lmer(log(trial_looking_time) ~ I(exp(1)**(-trial_number)) * trial_type  + (1 | subject), data = preschooler_d)

infant_model_d <- infant_d %>% 
  select(paper, subj, agedays, starts_with("train"), "expected1") %>% 
  rename(trainEXTRA = expected1) %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("train")) %>% 
  filter(!is.na(value)) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = as.numeric(str_replace(name, "train", ""))) %>% 
  left_join(last_trial_number, by = c("paper", "subj")) %>% 
  mutate(trial_type = case_when(
    is.na(trial_number) ~ "deviant", 
    TRUE ~ "background"
  )) %>% 
  mutate(trial_number = case_when(
    is.na(trial_number) ~ last_trial, 
    TRUE ~ trial_number
  )) %>% 
  filter(!is.na(trial_number)) %>% 
  select(paper, subj, trial_number, trial_type, value, agedays) %>% 
  rename(trial_looking_time = value, 
         subject = subj)

## Warning: There was 1 warning in `mutate()`.
## ℹ In argument: `trial_number = as.numeric(str_replace(name, "train", ""))`.
## Caused by warning:
## ! NAs introduced by coercion

3.1.2 Run the adapted model

infant_full_model <- lmerTest::lmer(log(trial_looking_time) ~ I(exp(1)**(-trial_number)) * trial_type + (1 | paper/subject), data = infant_model_d)

## Warning: Some predictor variables are on very different scales: consider
## rescaling
## Warning: Some predictor variables are on very different scales: consider
## rescaling

infant_model_d$resid <- resid(infant_full_model)

3.1.3 Put things together

infant_measure_with_resid <- infant_model_d %>% 
  select(paper, subject, trial_number, trial_type, resid, agedays) %>% 
  filter(trial_type == "deviant") %>% 
  left_join(infant_measures, by = c("subject"))

4. Visualization

full_d <- bind_rows(adult_measures_with_resid %>% mutate(group = "adults"), 
          preschooler_measures_with_resid %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"), 
          infant_measure_with_resid %>% mutate(group = "infants"))

full_d$group = factor(full_d$group, levels=c('infants','preschoolers','adults'))

4.1 Slope measures vs resid across age groups

full_d %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = decay_rate, y = resid)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .2) + 
  facet_wrap(~group) + 
  geom_smooth(method = "lm")

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

4.2 Volatility measurs across age groups

full_d %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = ends_with("volatility"), names_to = "volatility_type", values_to =  "volatility_measure") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = volatility_measure, y = resid)) + 
  geom_point(alpha = .2) + 
  facet_wrap(volatility_type~group, scales = "free") + 
  geom_smooth(method = "lm")

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## Warning: Removed 710 rows containing non-finite outside the scale range
## (`stat_smooth()`).

## Warning: Removed 710 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).

5. Models

5.1 Adults

5.1.2 Decay Rate only

lm(resid ~ decay_rate , data = adult_measures_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate, data = adult_measures_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -1.80535 -0.32725 -0.00828  0.34016  1.44597 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.69956    0.06569   10.65  < 2e-16 ***
## decay_rate   1.36908    0.34060    4.02 8.49e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.5523 on 184 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.08073,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.07573 
## F-statistic: 16.16 on 1 and 184 DF,  p-value: 8.492e-05

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age

lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age, data = adult_measures_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate + age, data = adult_measures_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -1.72556 -0.32998 -0.01182  0.31494  1.42461 
## 
## Coefficients:
##              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.933742   0.136056   6.863 1.02e-10 ***
## decay_rate   1.277302   0.343525   3.718 0.000267 ***
## age         -0.008610   0.004393  -1.960 0.051542 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.549 on 182 degrees of freedom
##   (1 observation deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1011, Adjusted R-squared:  0.0912 
## F-statistic: 10.23 on 2 and 182 DF,  p-value: 6.149e-05

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age + volatility measure

lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age + sd_volatility, data = adult_measures_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate + age + sd_volatility, data = adult_measures_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -1.64177 -0.32583 -0.02335  0.30399  1.39343 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)    8.401e-01  1.567e-01   5.360 2.53e-07 ***
## decay_rate     1.051e+00  4.030e-01   2.608  0.00986 ** 
## age           -7.423e-03  4.304e-03  -1.725  0.08625 .  
## sd_volatility  1.488e-05  1.836e-05   0.811  0.41867    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.5356 on 180 degrees of freedom
##   (2 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.09879,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.08377 
## F-statistic: 6.577 on 3 and 180 DF,  p-value: 0.0003043

5.2 Preschoolers

5.1.2 Decay Rate only

lm(resid ~ decay_rate , data = preschooler_measures_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate, data = preschooler_measures_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -1.80369 -0.29943 -0.07338  0.39856  1.57392 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   0.7620     0.1010   7.542 8.55e-12 ***
## decay_rate    1.6415     0.3623   4.531 1.36e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.5937 on 124 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.142,  Adjusted R-squared:  0.1351 
## F-statistic: 20.53 on 1 and 124 DF,  p-value: 1.362e-05

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age

lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age_in_months, data = preschooler_measures_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate + age_in_months, data = preschooler_measures_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -1.3822 -0.3981 -0.1422  0.4216  1.7742 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)   1.102834   1.084874   1.017   0.3175  
## decay_rate    3.532406   1.517161   2.328   0.0268 *
## age_in_months 0.005215   0.015182   0.343   0.7336  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.6844 on 30 degrees of freedom
##   (93 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1805, Adjusted R-squared:  0.1258 
## F-statistic: 3.303 on 2 and 30 DF,  p-value: 0.05052

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age + volatility measure

lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age_in_months + sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate + age_in_months + sd_volatility, 
##     data = preschooler_measures_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -1.3906 -0.3821 -0.1247  0.3962  1.7778 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)   9.571e-01  1.219e+00   0.785   0.4386  
## decay_rate    3.287e+00  1.773e+00   1.854   0.0739 .
## age_in_months 5.446e-03  1.544e-02   0.353   0.7269  
## sd_volatility 2.247e-05  8.024e-05   0.280   0.7814  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.6952 on 29 degrees of freedom
##   (93 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1827, Adjusted R-squared:  0.09813 
## F-statistic: 2.161 on 3 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.1142

vif(lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age_in_months + sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_resid))

##    decay_rate age_in_months sd_volatility 
##      1.453331      1.101150      1.338485

6.1 Infants

6.1.1 Decay Rate only

lm(resid ~ decay_rate , data = infant_measure_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate, data = infant_measure_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -3.15763 -0.48182  0.00458  0.50549  2.43451 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) -0.15286    0.03506  -4.360 1.37e-05 ***
## decay_rate  -0.93477    0.19167  -4.877 1.16e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.7096 on 2037 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.01154,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.01106 
## F-statistic: 23.78 on 1 and 2037 DF,  p-value: 1.161e-06

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age

lm(resid ~ decay_rate + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.2719 -0.4973  0.0040  0.5322  2.4661 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.0171497  0.0485934   0.353    0.724    
## decay_rate  -1.1233988  0.1937490  -5.798 7.78e-09 ***
## agedays     -0.0008873  0.0001677  -5.289 1.36e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.7048 on 1977 degrees of freedom
##   (59 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.02676,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.02577 
## F-statistic: 27.17 on 2 and 1977 DF,  p-value: 2.278e-12

5.1.3 Decay Rate + Age + volatility measure

lm(resid ~ decay_rate + agedays + sd_volatility, data = infant_measure_with_resid) %>% summary()

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = resid ~ decay_rate + agedays + sd_volatility, data = infant_measure_with_resid)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.2708 -0.4974  0.0085  0.5319  2.4653 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   -0.0065465  0.1007042  -0.065    0.948    
## decay_rate    -1.1953226  0.2708976  -4.412 1.08e-05 ***
## agedays       -0.0008834  0.0001724  -5.124 3.28e-07 ***
## sd_volatility  0.0008469  0.0036225   0.234    0.815    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.7067 on 1944 degrees of freedom
##   (91 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.02762,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.02612 
## F-statistic:  18.4 on 3 and 1944 DF,  p-value: 8.961e-12

6. Summarizing Model results

6.1 Combine Decay Rate Only models

bind_rows(
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate , data = adult_measures_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate , data = preschooler_measures_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate , data = infant_measure_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term == "decay_rate") %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("")

6.2 Combine Decay Rate + Age Models

bind_rows(
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age, data = adult_measures_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age_in_months, data = preschooler_measures_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate + agedays, data = infant_measure_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>% 
  mutate(clean_term = case_when(
    term == "age_in_months" ~ "age",
    term == "agedays" ~ "age", 
    TRUE ~ term
)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("") + 
  facet_wrap(~clean_term)

6.3 Combine Decay Rate + Age + Volatility Models

bind_rows(
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age + sd_volatility, data = adult_measures_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "adults"),
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate + age_in_months + sd_volatility, data = preschooler_measures_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "preschoolers"),
  lm(resid ~ decay_rate + agedays + sd_volatility, data = infant_measure_with_resid) %>% broom::tidy(conf.int = TRUE, conf.level = 0.95) %>% mutate(group = "infants")
) %>% 
  filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>% 
  mutate(clean_term = case_when(
    term == "age_in_months" ~ "age",
    term == "agedays" ~ "age", 
    TRUE ~ term
)) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = factor(group, levels = c("infants", "preschoolers", "adults")), y = estimate, ymin = conf.low, ymax = conf.high)) + 
  geom_pointrange() + 
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "gray", linetype = "dashed") + 
  coord_flip() + 
  theme_few() + 
  xlab("") + 
  facet_wrap(~clean_term)