A. Demographic Shifts and the Promise of a Blue Texas

• Long-held predictions of Texas turning blue due to changing demographics.
• Texas becoming a minority-majority state.
• The allure of the Latino vote for Democrats.

B. The Reality Check: Republican Stronghold

• Continued Republican dominance in statewide offices and the Texas House.
• Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.
• Significant swing in the Latino vote towards Republicans.
• Significant inroads in males of all races, including young males, by Republicans.

A. The Senate Race: Allred vs. Cruz

• High hopes for Collin Allred as a Democratic challenger.
• Campaign strategies:
  • Democrats focusing on abortion and targeting young voters, particularly women.
  • Republicans exploiting Allred’s stance on LNG exports and transgender athletes.
  • Trump campaign targeting disaffected voters including young males.
• Cruz’s decisive victory, dampening Democratic enthusiasm.

B. Analyzing the Defeat: Why Democrats Lost

• Misreading the electorate:

Democrats made assumptions about Latino support or opposition to certain policies. One assumption was that Latinos were overwhelmingly opposed to deportation of undocumented immigrants.

B. Analyzing the Defeat: Why Democrats Lost

• Misreading the electorate:

Latino Voters on Deportation

B. Analyzing the Defeat: Why Democrats Lost

• Misreading the electorate:

78% of Texans support an exception to the near total abortion ban at least at some point during pregnancy. Democrats assumed that the abortion issue would be a winning issue for them in Texas.

B. Analyzing the Defeat: Why Democrats Lost

• Misreading the electorate:

Only 4% of voters ranked abortion as their top issue. Women under 30 make up about 5.5% of Texas voters and some of them are strongly pro-life.

B. Analyzing the Defeat: Why Democrats Lost

• Misreading the electorate:
  • Overestimating support for abortion rights.
  • Promoting policies unpopular with a majority of Texans.
• Disconnect with Texas voters:
  • Focusing on national issues over Texas-specific concerns.
  • Prioritizing “political correctness” over voters’ priorities.
  • Ignoring the large number of disaffected voters in Texas.
  • Ignoring the concerns of Texas strong Individualist and Traditionalist cultures.

B. Analyzing the Defeat: Why Democrats Lost

• Campaign strategy shortcomings:
  • Overreliance on social media and “viral” moments.
  • Lack of a robust ground game and voter outreach, especially among Latinos.

III. The Path Forward: Soul-Searching and Strategic Shifts

A. Internal Debate and Criticism

• Concerns about the party’s ability to attract national funding after repeated losses.
• Frustration with the disconnect between national Democratic priorities and Texas voters.
• Calls for a deeper understanding of Texas-specific issues and concerns.

B. Rethinking Democratic Strategies for Success

• The need for sustained investment in Texas, beyond last-minute cash infusions.
• Building a strong ground game and engaging in year-round voter outreach.
• Developing a more effective message that resonates with a broader range of Texas voters.
• Developing a more effective message that resonates with Texas strong Individualist and Traditionalist cultures.

C. Republican Challenges and Opportunities

• The need to maintain and expand support among Latinos.
• The potential for backlash against the GOP’s more conservative positions that conflict with Texas Individualist culture.
• The importance of adapting to changing demographics and voter priorities.

The Future of Texas Politics

• Despite setbacks for the Democrats, the question of whether Texas will eventually turn blue remains a topic of debate and speculation.
• The future likely hinges on the Democrats’ ability to adapt their strategies, connect with a broader range of voters, and effectively address the unique political landscape of Texas.
• The future also depends to some extent on the Republicans’ ability to maintain their dominance and appeal to a changing electorate, for example by continuing to make inroads with Latino voters and perhaps moderating their positions on certain issues.

A. The Politicians

• Ted Cruz, Beto O’Rourke, Collin Allred, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris

B. The Analysts (Sources)

• Bill King, Jon Taylor, Matt Angle, Chad Wilbanks, Chuck Rocha, Jeff Mayhugh

C. Democratic Party Figures and Donors

• Ali Zaidi, Dave Carney, Katherine Fischer, Greg Casar, Luke Warford

D. Other Voices

• Olivia Juliana, Isaiah Martin

E. Organizations

• Texas Majority PAC, Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, ProgressNow drop

Authorship and License

Do not submit to Quizlet, Chegg, Coursehero, or other similar commercial websites.

• Author: Tom Hanna

• Website: tomhanna.me

• License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.