class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # cost of living crises ] .author[ ### ethan russell s3656069 ] .date[ ### 2024/10/26 ] --- The cost of living crisis is something every Aussie is acutely aware of. It's constantly discussed in the media, a frequent topic of concern among friends and family, and it has , it had notably displeased Dr. James Baglin. Yet, beyond the headlines and personal stories, what does the data really reveal? What specific changes and trends in the economy are contributing to such widespread discontent? This analysis dives into the data to shed light on the underlying causes of Australia’s cost of living crisis and aims to separate perception from measurable impact. --- This plot illustrates changes in CPI or inflation over time. We can observe a steady inflation growth of around 2%-ish for an extended period until a sudden drop in 2020 followed by a sharp recovery and a peak that was at the highest from outside my teen age years, this is where we see the cost of goods form woollies and 7/11 go up also side petrol, this is where we see companies be accused of pressganging, der I say regardless of their low preimages of the retail business, a high of 7.8% analysed for one month, while concerning, doesn’t necessarily constitute a crisis.  --- If we overlay the cash rate target or interest rates, both the RBA and the market suggest a fall of 15%-ish of the 4.35 % over the next two years, which is sort of the lang term average, I think it’s interesting how This recent increase to what might be considered a reasonable interest rate led to significant public backlash against former RBA Governor Dr. Philip Lowe, who faced intense media scrutiny and public dissatisfaction at the end of his tenure. The current Governor, however, in my opinion is more adept in her role, tho she is navigating a similar predicament without the same level of public and media criticism  --- I would say the cultural zeitgeist became narrowly focused on an economic event that was unbecoming of the typical Aussie not becomes of inflation or interest rates the real impact it was having on our mortgage, so we overlayed mortgage annual change interest we can see a high of just under 100% analysed for one month, that is alarming this is the cost of living crisis, inflation or interest rates are not even significantly moving at this level  --- Tho coming from a steady growth rate for an extended period until a sudden drop in 2020, could the negative growth flatten out the overall growth after the sharp recovery, to answer this we adjusted monthly data and overlayed it, as we can see there we are currently 26%-ish growth in interest form jun-2014, tho it was is real 26%-ish growth in the lars two years, and that is the real cost of living crisis, when a mandatory subscription grows off a base of the majority of you disposable income by a substantial amount, for a society this is a crisis, but is it the hull society  --- Well I don’t feel the crisis, and like a third of Aussies who own their home I’m ok, if your don’t the two third who have to pay a mortgage or pay a landlords mortgage if like me you live near public transport and don t need a car and have low expenses inflation is not a big dill, tho not the zeitgeist, not every one is in a cost of living I have benefited from the increasing interest rates though both my exposure to corporate credit and the increasing of the risk free rate , I have seen my disposable income increase over this time and I feel it’s the same for many Aussies