COVID-19 worsened enrol. decline

Enrollment decline summary

• From 2018 to 2021, the proportion of HS graduates who enrolled decreased by 7%, or 480,258 (table 302.10). In Fall 2024, enrollment declined by 6% (NSC, October 2024).

• The percentage of HS graduates enrolling in community colleges declined at higher pace next to the national trend (9%) from 2018 to 2022.

• The proportion of community college graduates who transferred decreased by about 8% between 2021 and 2022 (National Student Clearinghouse (NSC), March, 2023).

• In Spring 2024, NSC reported recovery of fall 2023 transfer rates by 5% next to fall 2022.

Research questions

1. Is transfer efficacy among community college students composed of four unique, but interrelated sub-constructs(namely, mastery experiences, social persuasion, vicarious experiences, & reduction of stress).

2. What constitutes goal orientation towards transferring among community college students?

3. What is the impact of each component of transfer self-efficacy on goal orientation among community college students?

Guiding conceptual models

1. Social Cognitive Theory (Bandura, 1989), and Self-Efficacy Theory (Bandura, 1994)

2. Goal Orientation Theory (Locke & Latham,2002)

3. Transfer Efficacy Model (TEM) (Buenaflor, 2021)

Social Cognitive Theory (SCT)

SCT postulates that contextual influences can affect a person’s belief on her ability to engage in behaviors that lead to specific outcomes. Bandura (1994) postulates there are four contextual influences:

1. Vicarious experiences (e.g., seeing other succeeding in the task).

2. Social persuasion (e.g., receiving positive feedback from people whose opinion one values).

3. Reduction of stress (e.g., eliminating barriers to succeed in the task).

4. Mastery experiences (e.g., becoming an expert).

Goal orientation

Goal orientation is a social-cognitive theory that examines the relationship between people and their goals (Locke & Latham, 1990).

The main premise of goal orientation is that individuals who pursue clear and difficult goals tend to perform better.

• The more specific a goal is, the more likely an individual is to achieve it.
• Clear and difficult goals are more likely to be attained than those vaguely stated.
• Goals oriented to learning or mastery are more likely to be attained.

Transfer Efficacy Model

Making TEM testable

Methods

Data collection consisted of two phases

Phase 1: Dealt with survey development aimed at capturing content valid items for the five core component of the TEM model

• Focus groups with three transfer students assessed the content validity of the items based on the psychology of survey response theory (Tourangeau et al.,2000)

• Accordingly participants were asked to examine each item, recall critical experiences, and provide examples

• A short definition of the 5 constructs was made available to assist recalling process

Phase 2: Survey administration

Survey collection took place during spring 2022 using Qualtrics

Relied on on professional listservs to circulate the survey (e.g., NACADA) as well as Phi Theta Kappa to administer the survey among their partner organizations.

Students were entered into a raffle for an Apple iPad as an incentive

1,810 respondents completed the survey

Who answered the survey?

Exploratory factor analysis

Sources of self-efficacy: Instead of being grouped into four factors (as hypothesized), the self-efficacy items were grouped into five factors: Altogether, they explained 53% of the variance in the correlation matrix

Goal orientation: Four indicators were grouped into a single factor. This factor accounts for almost 60% of the variance in the correlation. An indicator was removed.

Confirmatory factor analysis

Main research questions

1. What is the impact of transfer self-efficacy on goal orientation among community college students?

2. Does the impact vary by transfer self-efficacy component?

Impact of self-efficacy on goal orient.

Conclusions

• Goal orientation towards transfer rests on having an academic plan, being proactive in securing academic skills, having decided on the major to pursue, and seen oneself attending college.

• Goal orientation is influenced by empowering experiences at community colleges. Those experiences include having friends who have successfully transferred, engaging with supportive college personnel who affirm students’ potential to transfer, and understanding institutional transfer agreements that outline clear policies and the necessary steps to achieve them.

In class exercise: What intervention strategies do you suggest?

• From the perspective of the president of a community college who is committed at increasing the proportion of her students to eventually transfer to a four-year institution.

• From the perspective of the president of a university who is committed at increasing the enrollment of community college graduates, and their success at her institution.

• In framing your answer, make certain that you are drawing on the key inputs and outputs that will help advance the financial well-being of the community college.

State level developments

Federal level developments

References

Bandura, A (1988). Organizational Application of Social Cognitive Theory. Australian Journal of Management, 13(2): pp. 275 - 302. 

Bandura, A. (1994). Self-efficacy. In V.S. Ramachandran. Encyclopedia of Human Behavior, 4, 71-81.

Buenaflor, S. H. & Cabrera, A. F. (2023). Transfer efficacy and goal orientation among potential transfer students: An exploratory study.  Paper presented before the annual meeting of the National Institute for the Study of Transfer Students (NISTS). Portland, Oregon.

References (continues)

Buenaflor, S.H. (2021). Transfer student self-efficacy: A success-oriented narrative of the transfer student experience. Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1080/10668926.2021.1967226.

Locke, E. A. & Latham, G. P. (1990). A theory of goal setting and task performance. Prentice Hall.References.

National Student Clearinghouse (March 25, 2024). Community College Enrollment & Other Mobility Trends in Fall 2023.

References (continues)

National Student Clearinghouse (March 9, 2023). Transfers from Community Colleges to Four-Year Colleges Drop Nearly 8% from Fall 2021 to Fall 2022.

Tourangeau, R., Rips, L. J. & Rainski (2000).The psychology of survey response, Cambridge University Press.

Velasco, et al. (2024). Tracking transfer. College Research Center. Teachers College. Columbia University.