Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

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Published

November 8, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Benin, Morocco, Ethiopia, Mauritania, Rwanda, Belarus, DR Congo, Tunisia, Angola, Sri Lanka, South Sudan, Nepal, Burkina Faso. We are forecasting major events for Belarus.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

Our models have a 70% accuracy rate, meaning that when we predict that a major event will occur, we see a major event occur approximately 70% of the time. In our previous report, we accurately predicted Protest activity in Belarus.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Nigeria

For Nigeria, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Defamation Cases in June: Recent events in Nigeria included a legal dispute involving a globally recognized musician who took action against another individual for making defamatory statements on social media. In another case, legal proceedings were initiated concerning the alleged breach of contract terms related to the biography of a deceased figure. Additionally, a former chair of the Surulere Lawyers Forum requested an apology over defamation accusations made on social media.

  • Disaster in July: A school building collapse in Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria resulted in the deaths of 22 students and injuries to 132 others. A cholera outbreak claimed 103 lives among 3,623 suspected cases across 34 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Lagos, disrupting daily life and impacting infrastructure, while flooding in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, displaced residents in three communities. Additionally, severe rainfall in Etsako West, Edo State, caused trees to fall in a busy market, resulting in four deaths and multiple injuries.

  • Legal Changes in May and July: President Bola Tinubu suspended the 0. 5% cybersecurity fee on electronic banking transactions in response to public outcry. The Kano State House of Assembly passed a bill abolishing four newly created emirate councils, reversing changes made by the previous administration. President Tinubu signed a bill reinstating Nigeria’s old national anthem, “Nigeria, We Hail Thee.” A Rivers State High Court nullified the extension of local government chairmen’s tenure, and the Central Bank of Nigeria released new guidelines raising the minimum capital requirement for Bureau De Change operators. In July, recent events in Nigeria included a Supreme Court judgment granting administrative and fiscal autonomies to local governments, deeming caretaker committees in 20 states unconstitutional, and mandating democratically elected councils. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented a Minimum Wage Bill to the House of Representatives, seeking to legalize a new national minimum wage of N70,000. Additionally, the Kano State Emirates Council Bill 2024 created three new second-class emirates, altering cultural and traditional governance in Kano State. The Federal Government proposed a 70% windfall tax on forex gains by banks as part of amendments to the Finance Act 2023. Lastly, the Lagos State Government introduced a new parking policy affecting all motorists across the state.

  • Security Mobilization in May: In Zamfara State, additional troops were deployed to address ongoing banditry, affecting multiple communities. The Nigerian Army withdrew troops from Delta State’s Okuama community after an earlier violent incident, reducing military presence there. In Kano, soldiers were deployed amid controversy related to the deposition of Emir Alhaji Ado Bayero, and a Schools Protection Squad was launched to protect educational facilities from threats. Additionally, in Rivers State, armed policemen and armored personnel carriers were deployed to secure residential quarters of the House of Assembly members amid political tensions.

  • Protests in May and June: Members of the Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress protested nationwide against increased electricity tariffs, focusing on offices of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission and distribution companies. Retired police officers protested in Abuja over unpaid pensions, demanding a separate police pension board. Residents of the Ayetoro community in Ondo State protested government inaction after an ocean surge left many homeless, and students in Ekiti State protested the alleged killing of a corps member by a policeman. Additionally, students at the Federal Polytechnic Ede protested the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission’s arrest of their peers during a raid. In June, the Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress initiated a nationwide indefinite strike over unresolved issues with the federal government regarding a new minimum wage and the reversal of electricity tariff hikes, causing significant disruption to public services across the country. Residents of various communities in Ibadan protested at the Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company office over poor power supply. In Calabar, hundreds of customers gathered at a Heritage Bank office demanding access to their funds amid concerns of tampered deposits. The Coalition of Zamfara Youths organized a “Walk for Peace” procession in Zamfara State as part of the Democracy Day celebrations, emphasizing the administration’s stance against negotiating with bandits. Protesters from Kaduna Citizens Watch for Good Governance demanded the arrest of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai over alleged financial mismanagement at the Kaduna Government House.

  • Purge/Replace in May: The Labour Party National Chairman in Nigeria was suspended by executive members in Edo State, although national representatives deemed the suspension unconstitutional. The Nigerian Army retired 29 Generals, including 19 Major-Generals and 10 Brigadier-Generals, in a notable military reshuffle. In another political development, three Edo State lawmakers were suspended over alleged impeachment plots, and the state chairman of the APC in Zamfara was removed by the ward executive committee. Additionally, the Governor of Anambra State dismissed all 21 local government transition chairmen.

  • Raids in June: Military forces in Nigeria conducted a raid in Abia State targeting hideouts linked to the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra, resulting in arrests related to the killing of five soldiers. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission raided nightclubs in Akure, Ondo State, arresting 50 individuals in a crackdown on internet fraud. In efforts to combat banditry, police and military forces raided camps in Kaduna and the Federal Capital Territory, arresting suspects involved in kidnapping. Additionally, the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency uncovered a shrine in Benin City storing illicit drugs, resulting in the seizure of meth and the arrest of two individuals. In Enugu State, government authorities sealed the offices of the Enugu Electricity Distribution Company due to non-compliance with meter provision and billing practices.

  • Lethal Violence in June: There were reports of attacks in Safana Local Government Area, Katsina State, where terrorists killed at least 41 people over three days. In Gwoza, Borno State, a suicide bombing attributed to female teenage bombers resulted in 18 deaths. The Nigerian Air Force conducted airstrikes in Kankara, Katsina State, killing 29 bandits and rescuing kidnapped victims. Additionally, armed bandits in Katsina State killed 20 civilians and six security operatives, and the Deputy Vice Chancellor of Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto was killed by bandits.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Zimbabwe

For Zimbabwe, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in July: Seventy-eight CCC activists were arrested in Harare during a gathering, leading to accusations of police torture and a fundraising campaign to support the detainees due to rights violations. The Zimbabwe National Organisation of Associations and Residents Trust petitioned against a cement plant construction in the Hurungwe district due to environmental and health risks. Women’s rights groups in Zimbabwe are advocating for greater female representation in leadership roles, emphasizing constitutional gender equality provisions for the 2028 elections. Residents of Warren Park, Harare protested against illegal gravel mining causing environmental damage, while concerns were raised about the politicization of food aid distribution amid drought conditions.

  • Arrests in August: Several individuals, including a former politician and a city councillor, were arrested in Zimbabwe on charges related to incitement and protests against the government. Over 160 activists, political party members, and civil society participants faced arrests for charges including disorderly conduct, as authorities aimed to prevent dissent leading up to the SADC summit. The government heightened its measures against perceived threats of protests, resulting in the detention of more than 120 activists.

  • Corruption in July: Recent events in Zimbabwe included a large-scale investigation involving the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and associates of President Emmerson Mnangagwa over a US$40 million tender for electoral materials. A significant corruption case involved the misuse of the Zimbabwe government’s sovereign wealth fund in connection with mining interests, which allegedly increased the national debt by USD 3 billion. Additionally, Harare City Council officials faced charges over a US$9 million streetlights rehabilitation tender, while businessmen were accused of multiple fraud charges related to the Presidential Goat Scheme and government tenders. The Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission has been active in pursuing asset recoveries, with cases worth over US$135 million referred to the National Prosecuting Authority.

  • Legal Actions in July and August: Several legal cases and controversies emerged in Zimbabwe. Businessmen were denied bail pending trial for allegedly defrauding the state of $7 million under the Presidential Goat Scheme. The President ordered a consolidated investigation into attacks targeting his family, including a re-opened probe into a 2018 grenade incident. Additionally, scrutiny intensified over the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission linked to a $40 million tender scandal. The Masvingo Town Clerk faced charges of fraud and abuse of office related to the procurement of vehicles. The High Court reserved its ruling on the bail appeal of opposition figure Jameson Timba and others accused of illegal gathering. In August, legal challenges were prominent in Zimbabwe, with businessmen facing accusations of fraud related to city council tenders and the Presidential Goat Pass-On Scheme. Another case involved a former legislator reclaiming impounded luxury vehicles following a court ruling amidst money laundering and fraud allegations. Additionally, investigations into the Harare City Council uncovered widespread corruption, prompting further inquiries into financial misconduct.

  • Security Mobilization in August: The Zimbabwe Republic Police increased police presence in Harare and elsewhere across the country before the SADC summit and national holidays to manage security concerns and potential disruptions. Security measures at Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport were reinforced with advanced systems to improve aviation safety, and the Zimbabwe National Army was deployed to ensure the peaceful conduct of Heroes and Defence Forces Days celebrations. Additionally, the government heightened surveillance and security systems in response to a bomb threat from earlier in the year, particularly focusing on major entry points.

  • Raids in August: State security agents in Zimbabwe raided a leisure facility in Harare, resulting in the detention of over 100 opposition and civic leaders as part of a broader crackdown on government critics. Police also raided the home of an opposition leader in Harare and arrested over 70 activists involved in commemorating the Day of the African Child, charging them with promoting public violence and disorderly conduct. Additionally, four pro-democracy campaigners were forcibly removed from an aircraft at Robert Mugabe International Airport and detained for their involvement in an allegedly unsanctioned demonstration.

  • Non-lethal Violence in August: In Zimbabwe, a significant crackdown on civil society and human rights advocates in Harare resulted in 198 documented human rights violations affecting 3,727 victims, primarily linked to the ruling party, Zanu PF. An attempted break-in by suspected state operatives at the Crisis Coalition offices in Harare left staff members trapped until safely evacuated by Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights. In Mhondoro, Mashonaland West, nearly 50 cattle were stolen, exacerbating economic difficulties amid drought conditions. Widespread power outages in Bulawayo East were caused by the vandalism of copper cables. In Matabeleland North, villagers in Bubi District faced clashes with a gold miner over unrehabilitated mining pits, leading to tensions and the reported shooting of livestock by the miner.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Benin

For Benin, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in August and September: There were reports of the arrest of a political columnist following his critical audios on governance, leading to his detention. In the Ayimevo district, a joint operation resulted in the arrest of twenty-six individuals suspected of insecurity-related activities, while in Parakou, seven individuals were apprehended for suspected involvement in cybercrime. Additionally, a vehicle smuggling fertilizers was intercepted in a police operation aimed at preventing illegal exports, and further arrests were made in Kilibo and Tchaourou as part of a broader law enforcement crackdown. In September, recent events in Benin involved the arrest of several high-profile individuals, including the commander of the Republican Guard, a former minister, and a businessman, on charges of planning a coup d’état against the government. Law enforcement activities included the detention of approximately 50 female sex workers in Cotonou as part of an anti-gathering campaign and the arrest of nearly 70 beggars and wandering children to manage street populations. Authorities also arrested a producer of psychotropic products in Tchatchou for cultivating Indian hemp, reflecting ongoing efforts to address drug-related offenses.
  • Corruption in July: The Court for the Suppression of Economic Offences and Terrorism (CRIET) in Benin sentenced individuals for fraudulent activities involving soybeans and prosecuted multiple collaborators for alleged fraud in contract awards at the prefecture of Cotonou. Additionally, CRIET handed serious prison sentences to officers from the National Agency for Land Transport for complicity in abuse of functions and fraud in driving license examinations. A case of money laundering was dismissed due to insufficient evidence, and law enforcement intercepted 84 tons of smuggled cashew nuts in Prekete to combat illegal trade.

  • Disaster in July and August: ECOWAS initiated humanitarian aid for victims of the 2022 floods, impacting 2,500 households across 48 municipalities of Benin. A ship carrying an uncertain national flag failed off Fidjrossè beach, raising pollution concerns for Beninese waters. A truck carrying contraband gasoline ignited in Akassato, causing significant material damage but resulting in no fatalities. A fire at the University of Abomey-Calavi destroyed six shops within a shopping center, contributing to material losses. In August, a food poisoning incident in the department of Donga resulted in the death of four family members in the municipality of Bassila, and in a separate incident in the Borgou department, two children from the commune of N-dali lost their lives, highlighting a public health concern in the region. Additionally, a fisherman in his 70s drowned in Lake Ahemé, and his body was recovered in the village of Gantitomey, with no additional casualties reported.

  • Legal Actions in August: The Court for the Suppression of Economic Offences and Terrorism (CRIET) in Benin heard multiple significant cases, including the trial of 18 individuals involved in a failed ship incident, where defendants pleaded “not guilty” and requested ship dismantling, and a significant fraud case where a marabout was co-found liable for defrauding a girl of CHF 4. 8 million. Additionally, Benin’s President granted a pardon to 27 of 42 defendants convicted of electoral violence in 2021. The country also addressed cybercrime issues with the upcoming trial of cyber activist Steve Amoussou, and corruption charges against former mayor Michel Bahoun connected to land misappropriation.

  • Lethal Violence in August: In Benin, an attack by alleged terrorists from the JNIM group on the night of July 24-25, 2024, resulted in the deaths of twelve people, including five forest guards, along with significant military equipment losses. On August 15, 2024, a farmer was killed in Ouèssè during an altercation involving a goat, reflecting ongoing conflicts related to transhumance in the region. Additionally, a 59-year-old woman was found dead in her room in Abomey-Calavi on August 10, 2024, leading to concerns within the local community of Adjagbo.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Morocco

For Morocco, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in September: Authorities in Morocco arrested 152 individuals for inciting illegal emigration to Sebta via social networks amid attempts by approximately 3,000 people to emigrate illegally. The Central Bureau of Judicial Investigations arrested three individuals linked to Daech who were planning terrorist acts. Additionally, the head of a group was apprehended for fraud involving numerous victims, and a joint operation led to the arrest of 60 individuals for disseminating false news and inciting irregular migration. A deputy mayor of Marrakech was also arrested in a high-profile anti-drug operation involving cocaine and accomplices.

  • Censorship in August: A French channel terminated its contract with an Algerian commentator after he made statements regarding Morocco.

  • Corruption in July: Recent events in Morocco included a significant corruption incident involving the misappropriation of funds from a bank branch in the Dakhla district, leading to an investigation by a central committee. Additionally, five soldiers were sentenced to a total of 20 years in prison for various offenses related to bribery and trafficking in the eastern region. Several officials were also sentenced to prison for their involvement in fraudulent construction of a public school, and a scandal involving forgery in auction sales within the Court of First Instance in Rabat prompted an investigation and the demotion of the former President of the Court.

  • Disaster in September: Torrential rains in south-eastern Morocco caused devastating floods, resulting in the deaths of at least 18 people, with several others missing and extensive damage to infrastructure in provinces such as Tata, Tiznit, Errachidia, and Taroudant. Morocco confirmed a case of monkeypox and detected new cases of Covid-19 following the global health alert. In Tangier, an apartment fire led to the death of a mother and severe injuries to her son.

  • Legal Actions in July: The Rabat Court of Appeal dealt with a major international drug trafficking case involving over 5 tons of Sheera. Additionally, there were legal proceedings for a past massacre in Sla, an embezzlement case linked to the former President of a Justice and Development Group, and a fatal food poisoning incident in Marrakech that resulted in imprisonment for negligence. Members of the Tetra-Maskaleh Council also filed complaints alleging embezzlement against a former official.

  • Security Mobilization in August and September: Security forces in Marrakech implemented an intensive operation targeting road safety threats and criminal activities. This operation involved a comprehensive action plan to address traffic violations and improve public security. In September, integrated security measures were continued in Marrakech, Morocco, to curb crimes and enhance public safety, featuring a more localized mobilization effort compared to the national operations elsewhere.

  • Purge/Replace in August and September: A reshuffle involving 27 officials and the internal movement of seven other territorial officials took place in Morocco, led by the Wali of the Marrakech-Safi region. This was part of the Ministry of the Interior’s efforts to strengthen human resources and significantly impacted local governance. In September, in Morocco, a political shakeup occurred when the head of the opposition group in Fez was dismissed from the Council amid legal proceedings, along with the removal of key figures from a group in the National Assembly, impacting governmental stability. The kingdom’s second-largest political party faced an internal crisis when it suspended a member of its tripartite leadership following complaints, which could potentially change the party’s power dynamics. Additionally, in the Taroudant region, the head of Tesraas faced potential removal as a majority of collective advisers pushed for his dismissal, signaling shifts in local leadership.

  • Raids in July: Moroccan police conducted a high-profile raid on the judiciary headquarters in Marrakech under the supervision of the Procurator General. This operation involved tribunal inspectors and targeted alleged misconduct within the institution.

  • Lethal Violence in July and August: In Rabat, Morocco, a 24-year-old fruit seller was arrested for the fatal beating of an individual accused of attempted theft. The seller was referred to the investigating judge for potential remand detention and imprisonment. In August, two individuals of Moroccan origin were accused of fatally hitting Spanish coastguards with a narco-boat in Barbate and were reportedly located in a northern Moroccan fishing village. Additionally, a police officer with the rank of chief’s lieutenant in Morocco reportedly committed suicide in the workplace, leading to an investigation by the State Department of the Judicial Police to determine the circumstances and motivations.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Ethiopia

For Ethiopia, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in July: Twenty-seven civil society organizations in the Tigray region of Ethiopia urged regional authorities to address escalating gender-based violence, expressing concerns about violence, kidnappings, and killings targeting women. Human Rights Watch called for international intervention to assist approximately 40,000 Ethiopian and Eritrean refugees in eastern Sudan due to conflict in the region. The opposition party Salsay Woyane Tigray voiced concerns over the return of displaced Tigrayans, alleging that “occupying forces” are hindering the peace process and complicating the safe return of internally displaced persons. The Tigray Interim Administration faced pressure as the federal government promoted access for foreign mining firms, which led to regional tension and the detention of foreigners accused of illegal mining activities.

  • Corruption in July: Accusations of widespread corruption were reported within the Tigray Interim Administration, involving mineral theft, weapons smuggling, and land grabbing. An audit revealed financial mismanagement and potential corruption in the Addis Ababa city administration, with undocumented spending across multiple institutions. Additionally, a mining project involving the Ministry of Mines and the Oromia regional government raised concerns about regulatory influence and pressure related to lithium and tantalum resources.

  • Disaster in July: Ethiopia experienced a series of landslides in the Gofa Zone, resulting in at least 257 deaths and putting over 15,000 residents at risk due to ongoing heavy rainfall. The country is also facing an internal displacement crisis affecting approximately 4. 5 million people due to ongoing conflicts in regions such as Somali, Oromia, and Tigray. Additionally, a malaria outbreak in the Benishangul-Gumuz region infected over 10,000 people, and the Tigray region saw a 60% increase in malaria cases, reaching epidemic levels in some districts. A separate landslide in the Decha District caused three deaths and displaced 24 residents.

  • Legal Changes in August: These were reports of the transition from a fixed to a floating foreign exchange rate system, a shift in taxation policy with a new Value Added Tax proclamation, and adjustments to the National Bank of Ethiopia’s gold pricing policy. Additionally, the Tigray Interim Administration mandated prior approval for zonal and district meetings, and a new vehicle insurance policy was introduced, addressing third-party risk and market regulations.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Ethiopia.

Mauritania

For Mauritania, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in July: Protests erupted across Nouakchott, Nouadhibou, and other regions in Mauritania following the presidential election results, leading to the arrest of nearly 300 people. Additionally, over 200 individuals were detained due to political dissatisfaction with the election outcomes, and further incidents in Kaedi resulted in the detainment of 28 people, with authorities committing to investigate the circumstances surrounding the deaths of three protesters. The Mauritanian Coast Guard intercepted a boat near Nouadhibou carrying fewer than 194 irregular migrants, primarily from Senegal.

  • Censorship in July: Authorities in Mauritania cut off mobile Internet access amidst protests contesting the provisional election results, which confirmed the current President’s victory. The government justified the action as a security necessity, citing adherence to legal procedures under the 2013 Cabinet decrees.

  • Disaster in July and August: A devastating shipwreck off the coast of Ndiago resulted in the Mauritanian Coast Guard finding the bodies of 89 people with only nine survivors, while another boat sank off the coast of Nouakchott, leading to the deaths of 11 migrants with the Coast Guard rescuing 10, and 118 managing to escape. Additionally, a thunderstorm in the Eastern Basin State resulted in one fatality, another person falling into a coma, and livestock deaths, and rain-induced flooding in Nouakchott caused widespread material damage without casualties. An explosion of explosive materials in the Tawilla area was announced as a controlled act by the military, causing concern among residents. In August, severe floods in Mauritania’s Eastern Basin and other states resulted in at least four drowning deaths and widespread damage to homes and infrastructure, causing significant disruption to daily life in the affected areas. Agricultural pests in the state of Atarza led to losses ranging from 40% to 45% in fields and farms, significantly impacting food security and the livelihood of farmers. Additionally, a maritime disaster near Nouadhibou involved the sinking of a ship, resulting in the loss of two lives and the rescue of several individuals. Several traditional boats also drowned due to rough seas near Anwamgar, leading to economic losses for local fishermen. A traffic accident near Wad al-Naqah resulted in two fatalities and several injuries, highlighting safety concerns on the country’s roads.

  • Security Mobilization in July: The Mauritanian army conducted large-scale military exercises in the Tawilla area near Nouakchott, focusing on training with anti-aircraft missiles and heavy weapons for both day and night operations. Additionally, the army carried out training involving rocket launchers and anti-armour weaponry to enhance military preparedness and tactical capabilities.

  • Purge/Replace in July: General changes were made within the Mauritanian national police forces, affecting positions such as the Head of the Department of Oversight Audit and the Commander of Special Company No. These modifications were part of a broader effort to reorganize the country’s national security structures.

  • Lethal Violence in July and August: The Mauritanian Coast Guard recovered the bodies of 89 irregular migrants from a capsized fishing boat off the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, with nine survivors rescued. Demonstrations over the presidential election results in Kaedi led to violent clashes causing the deaths of three individuals. Additionally, two individuals were found dead in the Teres Zimmer deserts after a truck transporting them for surface gold exploration lost its way. In August, none of the events listed are relevant to the specified country.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mauritania.

Rwanda

For Rwanda, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Disaster in August: A fire in a clothing building in Rwanda caused substantial damage. Four individuals in Rwanda were diagnosed with a deadly disease after traveling abroad. A gas leak in Gakenke District’s mining site resulted in the deaths of two miners.

  • Non-lethal Violence in July: The minister of the Council of Nations publicly condemned the bishop of RDyayayaya for displaying certain ships in Rwanda, highlighting diplomatic tensions between the parties involved but lacking immediate physical violence.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Belarus

Belarus’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

DR Congo

For DR Congo, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in August: In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Congolese National Police arrested 137 people during a raid on the Forces du Progress headquarters for possession of weapons and unauthorized activities. Additionally, disturbances at the People’s Palace in Kinshasa led to the arrest of 221 individuals over conflicts concerning Senate candidate nominations. The Congolese army also detained 31 individuals in Beni, including foreign fighters linked to armed groups such as ADF and Mai-Mai. Former Deputy Minister of Justice Bernard Takaishe faced arrest after a financial inspection revealed the disappearance of US$ 5 million allocated for prison construction. Furthermore, National MP Modero Nsimba was placed under residence surveillance in Kinshasa amid legal investigations.

  • Censorship in July: In DR Congo, authorities in North Kivu exerted pressure on media outlets, with reports indicating multiple radio stations were silenced due to insecurity caused by M23 rebels, impacting journalists’ ability to report freely. The Supreme Council for Audiovisual and Communication’s suspension of a pastor affected all media tied to him, raising issues about regulatory misuse. Human Rights Watch called on authorities to reverse the suspension of a journalist, emphasizing the challenges faced by the media. Additionally, the Observatory for Freedom of the Press in Africa criticized intimidation tactics by the M23 rebels against radio stations in Kirumba, and the provincial government’s order to suspend mineral operations in South Kivu could indirectly affect media coverage of economic issues.

  • Corruption in July: Reports from the Congo Consortium Not for Sale revealed approximately ten corruption cases resulting in a loss of about $1 billion to the public treasury between January and June. National economic operator was arrested over attempted corruption and misappropriation of funds at the National Transportation Office. An investigation was initiated regarding misappropriation of funds in the Senate, and a former governor was accused of illicit diamond exploitation. Additionally, four officers from the Ministry of Finance in South Kivu were caught attempting theft while being under surveillance for fraud.

  • Disaster in August: The Democratic Republic of the Congo experienced a severe outbreak of the Mpox virus, with over 15,664 confirmed cases and 548 deaths, mainly affecting provinces like South Kivu and Tshopo. Rising waters of Lake Albert in Ituri caused a major humanitarian crisis, leaving over 10,000 homeless and resulting in six drowning deaths. Additionally, a shipwreck on the Lukeni River in Mai-Ndombe claimed at least 29 lives, while multiple fire incidents in regions like Bukavu and Matadi resulted in significant loss of life and property damage. Intensifying violence and insecurity, especially in Ituri, displaced over 1. 5 million people, worsening existing food shortages and humanitarian needs.

  • Legal Actions in July and August: Recent events in DR Congo included the commencement of the trial of a former electoral commission president over charges related to war crimes and insurrection. The military court in Kinshasa/Gombe is investigating a coup attempt on a political leader’s residence. Military courts issued death sentences for offenses like cowardice and criminal associations. Legal proceedings were initiated against individuals for alleged misappropriation of public funds, and a separate investigation focused on suspected financial misdeeds within the Senate. In August, proceedings continued in the military garrison court of Kinshasa/Gombe regarding the failed coup d’état of May 19, 2024, and related attacks, as the court moved towards a verdict following detailed arguments. In Goma, the military court sentenced eight Congolese soldiers to death for the murder of two civilians in Buhombo, Nyiragongo. In Kinshasa, members of the UDPS “Force of Progress” faced significant trial developments, with some defendants receiving death penalty rulings. Additionally, General Jean-Claude Kifwa faced criminal proceedings for alleged torture, reflecting internal military justice actions.

  • Protests in September: In Kinshasa, the political opposition and civil society movements organized a protest in front of the Palace of Justice on September 25, 2024, demanding the release of political prisoners. Teachers across various regions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tanganyika, went on strike over unmet promises to improve their salary conditions, disrupting the educational sector. Additionally, workers of Indo-Pakistani, Chinese, and Lebanese commercial houses in Kinshasa resumed a strike on September 9, 2024, seeking better working conditions. Taxi motor drivers in Beni, North Kivu, held violent protests on September 13, 2024, following the murder of a colleague, resulting in material damage. In Maniema, motorcyclists went on strike on September 30, 2024, protesting a newly implemented daily tax by the provincial government.

  • Purge/Replace in August: In DR Congo, Augustin Kabuya was dismissed from his role as Secretary General of the presidential party, Union for Democracy and Social Progress, indicating a shift within the party. Two high-ranking Congolese National Police officials were suspended due to their involvement in controversial evictions in Kinshasa. In the educational sector of Sankuru I province, seven heads of schools were revoked following accusations of immoral acts. Additionally, Jean-Bosco Bahala was removed from his role as National Coordinator of the Disarmament program after a meeting with delegates in Uganda, and Bertin Mantobo Menetudia, Secretary General of the Ministry of Digital, was suspended due to financial mismanagement.

  • Raids in August and September: In DR Congo, the provincial police of Kinshasa dismantled the headquarters of a group in the Manenga neighborhood, targeting alleged incivics to ensure security and reduce crime. The armed group CODECO sealed two Catholic parishes in Djugu territory, Ituri, stripping seminarians of their property and taking two hostages. Additionally, the Minister of Human Rights conducted a raid in the camps in Nyiragongo territory, Goma, to assess the state of war-displaced persons. In September, in DR Congo, the CODECO militia closed the doors of two Catholic parishes in the territory of Djugu, affecting religious activities and local communities. National MPs conducted raids on Stever Construct’s facilities in Kinshasa due to legal issues faced by the company’s president, impacting infrastructure projects in the city. Additionally, the military garrison auditorate in Butembo shut down four illegal detention sites used by military intelligence services after public complaints.

  • Non-lethal Violence in July: The M23 rebels and Rwandan forces were accused of violating a humanitarian truce in North Kivu, resulting in violent clashes with the Congolese Armed Forces and causing large-scale displacements. A combined Congolese and Ugandan military operation successfully rescued 23 hostages from ADF rebels in Ituri, including 13 minors. The occupation of strategic areas by M23, such as Kanyabayonga, has raised security and humanitarian concerns, disrupting local governance and infrastructure. Additionally, M23 bombed a former P-DDRCS site in Kirumba, hindering disarmament and community stabilization efforts, and looted the Kanyabayonga Reference Health Centre, worsening the healthcare crisis in the region.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Tunisia

For Tunisia, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in September: Tunisian authorities halted the distribution of the September issue of the magazine “Jean Afrique,” which featured content on President Kais Said and the upcoming presidential election. Journalists in Tunisia have experienced intimidation due to the application of urgent legislation affecting freedom of the press, with instances of imprisonment and prosecution. Additionally, a Tunisian citizen was prevented from traveling by authorities without a judicial decision, with varied reports on the reasons for this action. The distribution of “Young Africa” magazine in Tunisia was delayed, reportedly due to logistical factors. Furthermore, a campaign was initiated by the Society for Culture and Entertainment of Visually Impaired Persons to counter non-hate speech and bullying in collaboration with DW Akademie.

  • Corruption in July: Investigations and legal actions in Tunisia have focused on various high-profile cases involving allegations of financial misconduct and corruption. These include a political and financial scandal involving allegations of money laundering and unauthorized financial activities, scrutiny of a former Minister of Industry and executives for fraudulent mining practices, and a businessman sentenced for illicit land acquisition. Additionally, a businessman associated with a state petroleum corporation remains on trial for alleged financial corruption, and an arrest was made following a corruption warrant issued by the Chamber of Indictment.

  • Disaster in August: Tunisia experienced a rabies outbreak that became a public health crisis, resulting in nine deaths and 200 infections over six months in 2024. A major food poisoning incident at a wedding in Benzert affected 285 people, leading to medical responses and investigations into food safety standards. Additionally, a new infectious skin disease affecting cows near the Algerian border prompted increased veterinary and health surveillance, while a rise in drowning incidents led to over 50 casualties due to strong sea currents and rising waves.

  • Legal Actions in July and August: The Public Prosecutor’s Office of the Court of First Instance of Tunisia initiated investigations into Mohamed Latifi Al-Marraihi on charges of money laundering and unauthorized financial activities. Aber Musa faced legal proceedings after a complaint by the Independent High Electoral Commission, with her release requests denied. The Tunisian Court of Appeal upheld a one-year prison sentence for several security officers in connection with the drowning of Omar Al-Obaidi. The journalist Murad Al-Zaghidi had his prison sentence reduced in a case concerning the recording and publication of data. The Tunis Court of Appeal scheduled a hearing for the case related to the alleged clandestine activities of the Ennahda movement’s secret apparatus. In August, recent events in Tunisia included the decision by the Court of Appeal to refer a case involving 21 politicians, former ministers, and security officials to the criminal division on charges of a terrorist nature. The Court of First Instance issued a prison warrant against the President-in-chief of Tunisian Airlines amid financial corruption allegations. Additionally, the President of the Parti Populaire Républicain had an eight-month prison sentence and a lifetime ban from running for office upheld, while the director of a media site was released after a previous one-year imprisonment sentence was overturned.

  • Legal Changes in September: Amendments to Tunisia’s electoral law were adopted, adjusting the competence of the Administrative Tribunal in electoral disputes and setting spending limits for election campaigns. The Ministry of Justice issued a circular for a new chapter of the Commercial Code addressing issues with unpaid cheques. Measures were initiated to promote electric vehicles in Tunisia, and an agreement was signed with China to establish a medical institution in Al-Ajba. Additionally, a draft decree-law is being developed to define the relationship between the Assembly of People’s Representatives and the National Council of Regions and Districts.

  • Purge/Replace in August: In Tunisia, President Kais Saied conducted a substantial government reshuffle on August 25, 2024, replacing 22 ministers and secretaries of state. This included the appointment of a new Minister of Defence, Khaled al-Sahili, and the naming of music artist Amina Al-Sarafi as Minister for Cultural Affairs. Samir Abd al-Hafiz was appointed as the new Minister of Economy and Planning, while Samia Al-Houri Kadour was terminated from her position as Director of the Cabinet of the Head of Government.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Angola

For Angola, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in August: None of the events listed are relevant to the specified country.

  • Disaster in July: There was a tragic increase in drowning incidents in Angola, with at least 768 people, primarily children, dying in the 2023-2024 bathing season, marking a 13% rise from the previous year. A collision and rollover accident in the Ndumba neighborhood resulted in significant injuries, though the exact number of casualties was not specified. Environmental and economic damage occurred when fires consumed 67 hectares of arable land and destroyed over 170 hectares of forest in Huambo and neighboring municipalities.

  • Legal Changes in August: The Political Administrative Division law was approved in Angola, creating three new provinces and bringing the total to 21, following a final vote in the National Assembly. A new legislative proposal was introduced to increase charges for Congolese truckers in response to improper practices against Angolan carriers, impacting bilateral trade dynamics with the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Additionally, the attempt to recognize the political party PRA-JA Servir Angola was rejected by the Constitutional Court after prolonged suspensions and appeals.

  • Security Mobilization in September: Over 1,300 new surveillance cameras were installed in Luanda by the National Angolan Police to enhance public safety and maintain order and security in the capital.

  • Protests in September: Former Angolan soldiers who served in the Portuguese army protested outside the Portuguese Embassy in Angola, demanding long-awaited pensions. The UNITA party organized a march in Cazenga, Luanda, to advocate for the implementation of local authorities amid delays in the National Assembly. The ruling MPLA party held marches in various locations, including Luanda and Benguela, to support the leadership of the President, while a separate march in Huambo Province garnered participation to support the upcoming 2024 Census.

  • Lethal Violence in August: In Angola, an assault in the Panguila district of Bengo Province led to three deaths, including the homeowner, with two criminals killed during an exchange of fire with the National Police. Additionally, a police officer was lynched by a crowd in the Rangel neighborhood after a violent altercation between rival groups, which also resulted in the death of a woman during a patrol’s intervention.

  • Non-lethal Violence in August: A significant non-lethal violence incident occurred in Angola when JMPLA militants, the youth organization of the ruling MPLA party, set up a barricade with trunks and stones in Lopitanga. This resulted in an injury to a member of UNITA’s youth arm, JURA, and generated accusations of intimidation from the opposition.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Sri Lanka

For Sri Lanka, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in July: The Supreme Court dealt with petitions concerning the delay of the Presidential election, the challenge to a new tourist visa process, and the protection of a nature reserve from being converted into a prawn farm. Additionally, there have been efforts to address issues of ragging and cyber harassment, as well as a petition to secure voting rights for prisoners, reflecting active civic engagement in the country’s democratic and environmental affairs.

  • Corruption in August: Several officials in Sri Lanka, including a party secretary, were arrested for soliciting a bribe from a former regulatory chairman. The Bar Council of Sri Lanka called for the resignation of their president due to concerns about mismanagement and lack of transparency with a contract. A former state minister faced charges for alleged passport forgery, while a secretary to another state minister and a political activist were arrested for soliciting a bribe. Additionally, a police constable was arrested for accepting a small bribe.

  • Defamation Cases in July, August and September: The Court of Appeal in Sri Lanka granted bail to the General Secretary of Bodu Bala Sena, who had been previously sentenced to four years of rigorous imprisonment for making defamatory comments on Islam, pending the hearing of his revision petition. In August, in Sri Lanka, MP Wimal Weerawansa filed a defamation case against two officers of the Immigration and Emigration Department, seeking Rs. 1,000 million in compensation for alleged defamation. In September, the Colombo District Court issued an enjoining order preventing a parliamentarian from making or circulating defamatory statements against a fellow parliamentarian who recently pledged support to the President.

  • Security Mobilization in August: Approximately 54,000 police personnel were deployed across the country to manage polling stations and ensure the smooth conduct of the Presidential election on September 21. Additionally, the armed forces, including the Army, Navy, and Air Force, were authorized to maintain public order starting from August 27, with a focused deployment of 1,500 Special Task Force personnel around the Election Commission for security during the nomination submissions. Over 5,000 police officers, Army, and Special Task Force members were also deployed to ensure security for the Kandy Esala Perahera festival. Moreover, the joint military exercise ‘Mithrashakti’ took place, involving collaboration between Indian and Sri Lankan military forces.

  • Protests in July: The Railway Station Masters’ Union in Sri Lanka initiated a strike on July 10, leading to widespread train service cancellations due to the government’s decision to vacate non-reporting station masters’ positions. Over 200 public sector unions, including postal workers, participated in a two-day sick leave strike on July 8-9, impacting public services due to unresolved demands. Customs Officers protested on July 4-5 against the Sri Lanka Revenue Authority Bill, causing delays in container clearance and affecting supply chains. Additionally, fishermen and residents in Vakarai demonstrated against environmental damage from ilmenite mining and shrimp farming. Lastly, several unions protested outside the Bangladesh High Commission in Colombo in solidarity with students in Bangladesh.

  • Purge/Replace in September: A series of political changes occurred in Sri Lanka, including the dissolution of Parliament by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the resignation of six Provincial Governors along with the suspension of several State Ministers. Additionally, members of the SLPP were removed for their support of President Ranil Wickremesinghe, and five state ministers were dismissed, reflecting shifting allegiances within the government. Moreover, the recall of police security for former Parliamentarians was part of these administrative realignments.

  • Lethal Violence in July: In Athurugiriya, two individuals, including a prominent nightclub owner, were killed in a shooting allegedly orchestrated by underworld criminals. In separate incidents in Colombo and Ambalangoda, individuals linked to drug rackets and a former cricket team captain were shot dead, with ongoing investigations to identify and apprehend the perpetrators. Additionally, a shooting near a tattoo studio highlighted the involvement of overseas criminal figures.

  • Non-lethal Violence in September: In Mankulam, four female NGO workers were seriously injured in a landmine explosion while demining areas affected by previous conflicts. Clashes between student groups at Sri Jayewardenepura University led to its temporary closure. A political rally in Kandy resulted in injuries from firecrackers, while a separate attack targeted a bus carrying National People’s Power rally supporters in Monaragala. Additionally, a case of violence was reported where an elderly man was assaulted and his daughter sexually abused in the Madolsima Police area.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

South Sudan

For South Sudan, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in August and September: The President of the Union of Journalists of South Sudan raised concerns over threats to journalists and diminishing media freedom, highlighting arrests and violations affecting the press. Civil society organizations called for the urgent deployment of Necessary Unified Forces due to security threats involving organized forces and armed elements. The Murle community petitioned African Parks South Sudan for a share of proceeds from the Boma Park wildlife scenery. An advocacy event emphasized compliance with women’s representation as per the 2018 peace agreement, highlighting gender equality in government. Additionally, community leaders in Yei River County urged collective action to address deforestation rates and promote environmental cooperation. In September, a group of constitutional lawyers in Juba petitioned the Supreme Court against the government’s extension of the transitional period, alleging constitutional violations. A coalition of civil society organizations and the Worker’s Trade Union of Petroleum and Mining accused a company of environmental pollution. Youth-led advocacy in Rumbek East County focused on promoting gender equality and combating early and forced marriages. Additionally, local groups in Rumbek town engaged state officials on strategies for addressing youth unemployment, and an activist faced governmental repression after protesting the rising cost of living in Bor, Jonglei State.

  • Arrests in July: Authorities in Northern Bahr el Ghazal State detained over 80 young people for questioning due to suspicions of potential criminal activity. The Central Equatoria State Chamber of Commerce Chairperson was arrested by the Criminal Investigation Department. Three South Sudan People’s Defense Forces soldiers were arrested by the Ugandan army after allegedly crossing the international boundary, leading to diplomatic tensions between South Sudan and Uganda. Additionally, the Panyijiar County Commissioner was accused of ordering the arrest of 25 individuals, including intellectuals and aid workers, in Unity State.

  • Censorship in September: The Media Authority in South Sudan ordered Eye Radio to halt its weekly e-newsletter, restricting media activities. National Security officers in Juba prevented the First Deputy Speaker from leaving the country and suspended a General Assembly meeting of medical professionals, affecting freedom of movement and assembly. Radio Jonglei 95. 9 FM was targeted in Bor, and the Governor of Upper Nile State suspended the activities of the Governor of Mapan Province.

  • Corruption in July and August: Several high-ranking officials in South Sudan, including the Minister of Finance and the Managing Director of the state-run Petroleum Cooperation, were dismissed due to allegations of corruption and financial mismanagement. MTN South Sudan faced internal corruption allegations involving senior employees demanding bribes from prospective subcontractors. Allegations of misappropriation of political party registration fees have been raised involving the Ministry of Justice. The South Sudan Football Association suspended four officials from the Juba Local Football Association for involvement in match-fixing. Additionally, a Juba County Legislative Council chairperson was impeached following accusations of incompetence. In August, in South Sudan, Malaysian oil company Petronas filed a lawsuit against the government for allegedly sabotaging and seizing its assets valued at $1. 25 billion. An electrical company initiated a legal case against the government at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes concerning unpaid construction costs for the Nesitu Power Plant. The Transitional National Legislative Assembly began investigating corruption allegations involving local telecommunications companies. The cabinet’s approval of a $150 million solar plant in Juba drew scrutiny amidst allegations of mismanagement and corruption. Additionally, a lawmaker resigned from the national parliament citing concerns over corruption and leadership practices.

  • Defamation Cases in August: An activist was granted bail by the High Court in Juba after being detained since February 2023 on defamation charges, following a forced abduction from Nairobi, Kenya. Additionally, the detention of a journalist from Singaita FM drew attention when the Committee to Protect Journalists called for his release after he was arrested for reporting on incidents related to a Catholic Church.

  • Disaster in August: Severe flooding across South Sudan affected approximately 472,000 people in 26 of the country’s 78 counties, exacerbating ongoing challenges like displacement and food insecurity. Particularly impacted areas include Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, and Central Equatoria. The Greater Pibor Administrative Area experienced a devastating hunger crisis with over 40 deaths reported due to starvation. Floods in Jonglei State’s Fangak County displaced over 6,000 residents, destroying vital infrastructure and leaving many without shelter and essential provisions.

  • Legal Actions in August: Recent events in South Sudan included a legal confrontation where Malaysian firm Petronas filed a lawsuit against the government over a blocked asset sale. The South Sudanese government also faced a lawsuit from an electrical company related to the Nesitu Power Plant over unpaid dues. Additionally, the Transitional National Legislative Assembly and National Parliament summoned various cabinet members to address economic and security issues. In Maridi County, a Military Mobile Court sentenced SSPDF soldiers for serious offenses, and the High Court in Juba granted bail to an activist detained on defamation charges.

  • Legal Changes in July and September: The Transitional National Legislative Assembly passed the National Security Act 2014 (Amendment) Bill 2024, granting the National Security Service broad powers to arrest and detain without warrants. The assembly also advanced the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Financing of Terrorism Act 2012 (Amendment) Bill 2024 to align with international standards. The National Council of Ministers approved a significant budget for flood preparedness, and the Revitalized Transitional National Legislative Assembly adopted new regulations for public procurement to improve transparency. Additionally, a local order was issued in Juba County to regulate road activities for better urban management and sanitation. In September, the transitional government’s term in South Sudan was extended by two years through an amendment to the Transitional Constitution of 2011, delaying the country’s first-ever elections. A Cybercrimes and Computer Misuse Bill was introduced to address electronic crimes, and amendments to the South Sudan Civil Aviation Act were passed to improve air transport safety. In Jonglei State, a ban was enacted on the production, sale, and consumption of alcohol and harmful drugs. Additionally, a committee was assigned to review amendments to the Non-Governmental Organization Act, focusing on NGO regulations.

  • Protests in July: Residents of Jonglei State in South Sudan participated in peaceful protests on June 17th and 24th, 2024, against the intimidation of civil society leaders and journalists. Lecturers and non-academic staff at the University of Rumbek for Science and Technology initiated a sit-down strike to demand the payment of salary arrears and other allowances. The South Sudanese government faced criticism from international embassies for amending the National Security Act 2014, which grants the National Security Service the authority to arrest without a warrant. Citizens protested at the Department of Nationality, Passport, and Immigration over delays in issuing passports and identity cards. Teaching staff at various universities, including the University of Juba and Bahr el-Ghazal in Wau, planned strikes to protest work-related grievances.

  • Non-lethal Violence in July: Authorities in South Sudan reported a rise in abductions in Central Equatoria State, attributed to the National Salvation Front, involving the kidnapping of medical staff, local chiefs, and civilians, prompting heightened security measures. Intense gunfire in Juba city by SSPDF forces, in response to security breaches by motorists, caused alarm despite no casualties. In Rumbek, Lakes State, revenge attacks resulted in injuries, reflecting ongoing tribal disputes in the region.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Nepal

For Nepal, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in August: The government of Nepal lifted a nine-month ban on TikTok, imposing conditions that the platform must fulfill, including promoting tourism and improving digital safety. Approximately 1. 5 million customers lost access to 72 international TV channels due to unresolved financial disputes and regulatory delays between Nepali distributors and the Indian broadcaster. Additionally, a decision by the Speaker to prevent an MP from speaking led to a parliamentary blockade by members of two political parties.

  • Corruption in September: The parliamentary special inquiry committee in Nepal concluded that the chairman of the Rastriya Swatantra Party was involved in funneling cooperative funds into a media company using forged documents. Additionally, former officials were sentenced to over eight years in prison for their role in corruption within the Melamchi Drinking Water Project, and a former Deputy Inspector General of Nepal Police was remanded for misappropriation of cooperative savings. The mayor of Dhorpatan Municipality was arrested and repatriated to Nepal for embezzling significant funds from a cooperative, impacting over 1,500 depositors. The cooperative sector in Nepal was found to have several irregularities, with corruption issues affecting various savings and credit cooperatives.

  • Disaster in July: During the recent monsoon season in Nepal, severe floods and landslides claimed the lives of 143 people, left 47 missing, and caused significant displacement and infrastructure damage. In Chitwan, a landslide swept two passenger buses into the Trishuli River, resulting in numerous fatalities and prompting search and rescue efforts. A plane crash involving Saurya Airlines at Tribhuvan International Airport resulted in 18 deaths, with investigations ongoing. A landslide in Pokhara caused the deaths of 11 people and significant property damage. Additionally, Nepal faced a rise in viral infections, including dengue and scrub typhus, challenging the healthcare system’s capacity.

  • Legal Changes in August: The Transitional Justice (TRC) Bill in Nepal, aimed at addressing human rights violations during the country’s armed conflict, was passed with amendments in both houses of the Federal Parliament. The Nepalese government lifted the ban on the social networking app TikTok, allowing its use under certain regulatory conditions. The Supreme Court of Nepal revoked an interim order on police retirement, enabling the implementation of a mandatory retirement policy. Additionally, the Kathmandu Metropolitan City extended construction restrictions along riverbanks to protect water bodies following a Supreme Court verdict. Lastly, the bill amending the Enforced Disappearances Enquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act was authenticated, seeking to address issues in previous legislation.

  • Purge/Replace in July and September: There was a significant political transition in Nepal as the CPN-UML withdrew support from the government, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda and a reconfiguration of local governance as UML joined forces with the Nepali Congress. Additionally, the country experienced a government reshuffle with new ministerial appointments under the KP Sharma Oli-led administration and the Judicial Council implemented a judicial restructuring by transferring 91 judges across various courts. The Rastriya Swatantra Party also faced internal challenges as it suspended and dismissed its General Secretary from all party positions. In September, recent events in Nepal included the proposal and support by ruling parties to remove the Deputy Speaker, along with a large-scale reshuffle within the Nepal Police, involving the transfer of numerous superintendents and deputy superintendents. Additionally, the government undertook bureaucratic restructuring by reassigning a substantial number of officials, and the Gandaki provincial government expanded its cabinet as part of a power-sharing agreement. The Ministry of Home Affairs also replaced several Chief District Officers due to concerns over disaster management preparedness.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in Protest activity in Q4 2024. We have not yet seen a spike in reporting on Protests in Q4 2024.

Our updated models are no longer predicting an increase in reporting on Protests in Q4 2024.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Burkina Faso

For Burkina Faso, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in August: The National Police of Burkina Faso dismantled a significant criminal network in Ouagadougou, addressing widespread criminal activities in the region. President Ibrahim Traoré announced the arrest of individuals involved in destabilizing activities linked to imperialist lobbies and terrorism. Public protests arose following the prolonged detention and alleged abductions of members of the Balai Citizen movement, causing public outrage. Additionally, law enforcement arrested suspects involved in armed robbery and aggression in Ouagadougou and Ziniaré, as well as a trader with 14 tons of counterfeit rice in Ouagadougou.

  • Corruption in July: Recent events in Burkina Faso included a large-scale corruption investigation in Ouagadougou that dismantled a network involved in counterfeiting, fraud, and money laundering, seizing over 10 million CFAF in counterfeit banknotes and illegal weapons. Historical cases from 2020 to 2022 indicated the disappearance of tank trucks assumed to be related to terrorist activities, highlighting logistical and administrative shortcomings. Additionally, the police halted illegal counterfeiting involving state seals, forgery, illicit enrichment, and capital laundering, while a merchant was arrested for illegally distributing lubricating oils, reflecting challenges in economic fraud control.

  • Disaster in August: In July and August 2024, Burkina Faso experienced heavy rains that resulted in multiple instances of flooding, particularly affecting National Road No. 1 between Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, causing disruptions to traffic and infrastructure damage. Although no cases have been confirmed, precautionary measures have been implemented in response to an emerging Mpox epidemic. Concerns about the socio-economic impact of avian influenza were discussed in a validation workshop in Ouagadougou, and several areas in Koudougou were declared infected with rabies, leading to public health alerts.

  • Security Mobilization in August: Security measures were strengthened across Burkina Faso in August 2024, placing the country on maximum alert to address potential threats. Enhanced security efforts were announced for the Central-North region to address terrorist threats, reflecting a targeted approach to protecting residents. In July 2024, the Regional Judicial Police Service in Bobo-Dioulasso conducted several operations focusing on routine crime and illicit trafficking control.

  • Non-lethal Violence in August: In Burkina Faso, several anti-terrorism operations took place in August 2024. A joint operation by GUMI 4 and VDP neutralized terrorists and seized materials in the Boucle du Mouhoun region, while the Burkinabè army dismantled a large terrorist base in Nassougou, neutralizing about 20 terrorists. Additionally, after a terrorist attack in Barsalgho, the government emphasized unity and the role of defense forces in combating threats. In another incident, the military repelled an attack targeting a resupply mission in the East, securing civilians and defeating the assailants. In February, an organizer for the Balai Citizen movement was abducted by unidentified armed individuals in Ouagadougou, raising safety concerns for civic activists.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.