Regression Tables

By Candidate

Regression Output for Badenoch

	r1 Badenoch standard	r1 Badenoch stepwise	r2 Badenoch standard	r2 Badenoch stepwise	r3 Badenoch standard	r3 Badenoch stepwise	r4 Badenoch standard	r4 Badenoch stepwise	r5 Badenoch standard	r5 Badenoch stepwise
(Intercept)	-5.6	-3.4***	-5.2	-4.4***	-3.5	-6.5***	-3.5	-7.0***	1.8	-2.1***
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(0.7)	(<0.1)
female	0.1		0.2		0.3		0.3		0.2
	(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.8)
ethnic	1.3	1.6*	1.0		1.5+	1.8*	1.9*	2.4**	1.3+	1.3+
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
lgbt	-0.7		-1.3		-1.0		-0.9		-1.1
	(0.7)		(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.4)
elected	0.8*		0.8*	0.3	0.8*	0.6*	0.8+	0.7*	-0.1
	(<0.1)		(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)
opp_mp	1.3	1.7*	1.8+	1.8**	1.2	0.8	1.3	1.1	1.5*	1.6**
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0
	(1.0)		(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.4)
1st_Truss	1.3		2.0*	0.9	2.4*	2.4*	2.6*	2.9*	0.8
	(0.2)		(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.4)
1st_Sunak	0.1		0.6		1.4	2.4*	1.6	2.5*	0.2
	(0.9)		(0.6)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.8)
1st_Badenoch	1.3	2.9**	1.1	2.2*	1.4	2.7*	1.4	2.5+	0.9	1.3
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(0.2)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.1		-1.6		-0.3		-0.5		-0.2
	(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.9)
1st_Tugendhat	0.7		0.7		0.3		0.2		0.6
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.6)
1st_Braverman	-2.1	-2.9	-2.4	-2.4	-2.7	-3.2+	-3.2+	-3.9*	-1.7	-1.2
	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.3)
2nd_Sunak	0.3		0.9		0.9		0.7		0.6
	(0.7)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.4)		(0.4)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.1		1.9		0.6		0.7		0.9
	(0.5)		(0.3)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.5)
2nd_Johnson	-3.5+	-2.5	-4.2*	-2.9	-4.1*	-4.4*	-4.6*	-5.4*	-4.0*	-2.7+
	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_onc	0.3		0.3		0.3		0.2		-0.5
	(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.7)		(0.4)
grp_csg	1.1		1.3		1.3		1.2		0.6
	(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.7)
grp_erg	1.2		1.7		1.8+	1.5+	1.9+	2.0*	1.3
	(0.3)		(0.1)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)
grp_fm	-1.2		-1.4		-1.4	-1.4	-1.6	-1.6	-0.9
	(0.3)		(0.2)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.3)
grp_lvl_up	0.0		-0.1		-0.1		0.1		-0.3
	(1.0)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.6)
grp_cen	-0.6		-0.8		-1.1		-1.1	-0.7	0.1
	(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.2)		(0.2)	(0.4)	(0.9)
grp_crg	-0.3		-0.5		0.4		0.7		-0.8
	(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.4)
has_greenbelt	-0.4		-0.4		-0.4		-0.4		-0.3
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.6)
new_in_2024	-1.8		-0.3		-0.4		-0.3		0.2
	(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.9)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	109.6	76.9	118.3	92.5	122.9	97.6	120.5	95.5	150.8	122.1
BIC	179.3	93.6	187.9	112.0	192.6	128.3	190.2	128.9	220.5	138.8
RMSE	0.26	0.28	0.29	0.32	0.30	0.31	0.30	0.30	0.37	0.39
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Jenrick

	r1 Jenrick standard	r1 Jenrick stepwise	r2 Jenrick standard	r2 Jenrick stepwise	r3 Jenrick standard	r3 Jenrick stepwise	r4 Jenrick standard	r4 Jenrick stepwise	r5 Jenrick standard	r5 Jenrick stepwise
(Intercept)	-9.7	-4.0**	-7.3	-4.0**	-7.4	-1.3**	-7.5	-1.1**	-8.6	-2.8*
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)
female	-1.2	-1.5	-0.4		-0.2		-0.3		-0.3
	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.7)
ethnic	-1.2	-2.6	-1.4	-1.7	-1.4	-1.3	-1.6	-1.3	-1.1
	(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.3)
lgbt	0.0		-0.2		-0.2		-0.4		-0.4
	(1.0)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.8)
elected	0.5	0.8*	0.4	0.5*	0.3		0.4		0.6+	0.3
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)		(0.3)		(<0.1)	(0.2)
opp_mp	-1.0		-0.9		-1.2	-0.9	-1.2	-1.0+	-1.7*	-1.6*
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
mplr	0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1
	(0.3)		(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)
1st_Truss	-0.1		-0.4		-0.1		-0.2		0.2
	(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.8)
1st_Sunak	0.0		0.1		0.3		0.3		0.5
	(1.0)		(1.0)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)
1st_Badenoch	2.1+	2.0+	2.1+		2.3*	2.1*	2.3*	2.1*	1.9	2.3*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.7	-2.0+	0.2		0.3		0.2		0.0
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(1.0)
1st_Tugendhat	-1.9	-2.5	-2.5	-2.7	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5	-2.6	-3.1
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)
1st_Braverman	-0.2		0.2		0.7		0.7		1.5	2.5*
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.2)	(<0.1)
2nd_Sunak	-1.0	-1.4	-1.7+		-1.5	-0.7	-1.5	-0.7	-1.2	-1.2
	(0.3)	(0.1)	(<0.1)		(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)
2nd_Mordaunt	0.7		-1.9		-1.7		-1.7		-1.4	-1.3
	(0.8)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.4)	(0.3)
2nd_Johnson	3.4*	4.1**	3.9**	4.1**	3.5*	3.4**	3.5*	3.3**	3.4*	4.4**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_onc	1.8+	1.9*	1.9+	0.9	1.5+	0.8	1.5+	0.7	1.9*	2.6*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_csg	1.0		0.9	3.0*	0.8	2.1+	0.7	2.0	0.8
	(0.4)		(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(0.1)	(0.5)
grp_erg	-0.7		-1.7	-1.1	-1.6	-1.7+	-1.5	-1.7+	-1.2	-1.7
	(0.5)		(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.1)
grp_fm	-2.5+	-3.8*	-3.4*	-5.3*	-3.3*	-3.9*	-3.2*	-3.8*	-3.8*	-4.6*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.1		0.2		-0.1		-0.2		-0.1
	(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.8)
grp_cen	1.0		0.8		0.8		0.8		0.4
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.6)
grp_crg	2.7*	3.0**	2.7*	2.7**	2.8*	3.0**	2.8*	2.9**	2.9**	3.7**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	-1.1	-1.5*	-0.4		-0.2		-0.3		-0.3
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.6)
new_in_2024	-1.4	-1.5	-0.6		-0.8		-0.7		-1.4
	(0.4)	(0.2)	(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.3)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	104.7	86.2	121.7	97.0	126.2	104.0	127.5	106.6	130.3	110.4
BIC	174.4	125.3	191.4	124.9	195.9	137.5	197.2	140.1	200.0	146.7
RMSE	0.25	0.27	0.30	0.32	0.31	0.32	0.32	0.33	0.32	0.34
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Cleverly

	r1 Cleverly standard	r1 Cleverly stepwise	r2 Cleverly standard	r2 Cleverly stepwise	r3 Cleverly standard	r3 Cleverly stepwise	r4 Cleverly standard	r4 Cleverly stepwise
(Intercept)	-2.7	-5.2**	-4.5	-5.9**	0.7	-1.4***	3.6	-1.1**
	(0.7)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(0.9)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)
female	-0.7		-0.9		-1.0		-0.9
	(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.2)		(0.2)
ethnic	1.0		0.8		1.5+	1.3+	1.3	1.2
	(0.3)		(0.4)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)
lgbt	0.6		1.8		1.5	2.1+	1.4	2.0+
	(0.7)		(0.2)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)
elected	0.3	1.1*	0.2	1.5*	0.0		0.1
	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.7)	(<0.1)	(1.0)		(0.9)
opp_mp	-0.4		-0.2		-0.1		-0.2
	(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.8)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0
	(0.9)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.7)
1st_Truss	-0.3		0.0		0.2		-0.2
	(0.8)		(1.0)		(0.8)		(0.9)
1st_Sunak	-0.6		-0.5		-0.2		-0.9
	(0.6)		(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.4)
1st_Badenoch	-0.8	-1.9	-1.2	-2.8	-1.7	-1.9	-2.0	-2.0
	(0.6)	(0.3)	(0.4)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)
1st_Mordaunt	0.1	-1.5	-0.6	-2.5	0.6		0.4
	(0.9)	(0.4)	(0.7)	(0.2)	(0.6)		(0.7)
1st_Tugendhat	1.6		1.3		1.2		0.9
	(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.4)
1st_Braverman	-0.4		0.9		1.3		1.4
	(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.3)		(0.3)
2nd_Sunak	-0.4		-1.3		-1.4	-0.9	-1.4	-1.1
	(0.7)		(0.2)		(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.1)
2nd_Mordaunt	-0.9		-0.9		-0.8		-0.4
	(0.6)		(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.8)
2nd_Johnson	-0.1		-0.4		-0.8		-0.9
	(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.5)
grp_onc	-0.1		-0.8		-0.5		-0.6
	(0.9)		(0.3)		(0.5)		(0.4)
grp_csg	0.2		-0.3		-0.7		-1.2
	(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.5)
grp_erg	0.5		0.0		-0.4	-1.0	-0.3	-1.1
	(0.7)		(1.0)		(0.8)	(0.3)	(0.8)	(0.3)
grp_fm	0.3		1.2		1.4	2.0*	1.6	2.0*
	(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	-1.2	-2.7+	-1.4	-2.3+	-1.6+	-1.4	-2.0*	-1.5+
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_cen	-0.8	-2.9+	-1.4	-4.1*	-1.2	-1.3	-1.5	-1.5
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.1)
grp_crg	-1.6		-2.5	-2.5	-2.1		-2.1
	(0.4)		(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)		(0.2)
has_greenbelt	-0.3		0.2		0.2		-0.1
	(0.6)		(0.7)		(0.8)		(0.9)
new_in_2024	-1.9	-3.1*	-1.8	-4.3*	-1.5		-2.0
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(0.3)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	101.9	62.2	104.1	71.6	118.9	92.5	122.7	97.6
BIC	171.6	81.7	173.8	93.9	188.6	117.6	192.3	122.7
RMSE	0.23	0.24	0.24	0.26	0.29	0.31	0.30	0.32
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Tugendhat

	r1 Tugendhat standard	r1 Tugendhat stepwise	r2 Tugendhat standard	r2 Tugendhat stepwise	r3 Tugendhat standard	r3 Tugendhat stepwise
(Intercept)	4.9	16.5*	4.9	16.5*	1.2	-1.3
	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(0.3)
female	0.5		0.5		0.6
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.4)
ethnic	0.4		0.4		-0.2
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.9)
lgbt	-0.4		-0.4		-0.3
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.9)
elected	-0.1		-0.1		-0.4	-0.7+
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.3)	(<0.1)
opp_mp	-0.6		-0.6		-0.1
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.9)
mplr	-0.1	-0.3*	-0.1	-0.3*	0.0
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.7)
1st_Truss	0.7		0.7		0.2
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.8)
1st_Sunak	0.4		0.4		0.5
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.6)
1st_Badenoch	0.5		0.5		1.1
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.4)
1st_Mordaunt	1.2		1.2		0.7
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.5)
1st_Tugendhat	2.4+	3.4**	2.4+	3.4**	2.2+	2.2+
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Braverman	1.3		1.3		0.7
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.6)
2nd_Sunak	0.2		0.2		0.0
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(1.0)
2nd_Mordaunt	-1.9	-2.9	-1.9	-2.9	-2.2	-3.3
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)
2nd_Johnson	-0.8		-0.8		-0.2
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.9)
grp_onc	-0.4		-0.4		-0.1
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.9)
grp_csg	-0.3		-0.3		-0.7
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.6)
grp_erg	-0.6		-0.6		-1.4	-3.3+
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.3)	(<0.1)
grp_fm	2.0+	2.2*	2.0+	2.2*	2.0+	2.4*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.1		0.1		-0.1
	(1.0)		(1.0)		(0.9)
grp_cen	0.4		0.4		1.2	2.3*
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.2)	(<0.1)
grp_crg	0.9		0.9		0.8
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)
has_greenbelt	-1.0	-1.6+	-1.0	-1.6+	-0.9
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.1)
new_in_2024	1.6	2.2*	1.6	2.2*	2.8+	4.0**
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	97.8	58.1	97.8	58.1	107.8	71.9
BIC	167.5	77.6	167.5	77.6	177.5	94.2
RMSE	0.22	0.24	0.22	0.24	0.26	0.27
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Stride

	r1 Stride standard	r1 Stride stepwise	r2 Stride standard	r2 Stride stepwise
(Intercept)	-2.0	-3.6***	-2.0	-3.6***
	(0.7)	(<0.1)	(0.7)	(<0.1)
female	-0.4		-0.4
	(0.6)		(0.6)
ethnic	-0.3		-0.3
	(0.8)		(0.8)
lgbt	-0.7		-0.7
	(0.7)		(0.7)
elected	-0.1		-0.1
	(0.7)		(0.7)
opp_mp	0.9		0.9
	(0.3)		(0.3)
mplr	0.0		0.0
	(1.0)		(1.0)
1st_Truss	-0.5		-0.5
	(0.6)		(0.6)
1st_Sunak	-0.2		-0.2
	(0.8)		(0.8)
1st_Badenoch	0.6		0.6
	(0.6)		(0.6)
1st_Mordaunt	2.1*	2.0*	2.1*	2.0*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Tugendhat	0.8		0.8
	(0.6)		(0.6)
1st_Braverman	1.5		1.5
	(0.2)		(0.2)
2nd_Sunak	0.9	1.4+	0.9	1.4+
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)
2nd_Mordaunt	-0.2		-0.2
	(0.9)		(0.9)
2nd_Johnson	0.7		0.7
	(0.6)		(0.6)
grp_onc	0.1		0.1
	(0.9)		(0.9)
grp_csg	0.0		0.0
	(1.0)		(1.0)
grp_erg	-0.3		-0.3
	(0.8)		(0.8)
grp_fm	-0.5		-0.5
	(0.7)		(0.7)
grp_lvl_up	-0.6		-0.6
	(0.4)		(0.4)
grp_cen	-0.9		-0.9
	(0.4)		(0.4)
grp_crg	-0.7		-0.7
	(0.6)		(0.6)
has_greenbelt	0.3		0.3
	(0.7)		(0.7)
new_in_2024	0.3		0.3
	(0.9)		(0.9)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120
AIC	99.4	57.8	99.4	57.8
BIC	169.1	66.1	169.1	66.1
RMSE	0.23	0.24	0.23	0.24
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Patel

	r1 Patel standard	r1 Patel stepwise
(Intercept)	-4.7	-2.7
	(0.6)	(0.8)
female	-0.1	-0.1
	(0.9)	(0.9)
ethnic	0.2	1.1
	(0.9)	(0.3)
lgbt	0.4
	(0.8)
elected	-0.8	-0.7
	(0.1)	(0.2)
opp_mp	-0.5	-0.1
	(0.7)	(0.9)
mplr	0.1	0.0
	(0.6)	(0.8)
1st_Truss	2.9*	2.0+
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Sunak	0.8	0.2
	(0.6)	(0.9)
1st_Badenoch	-0.1	-1.8
	(1.0)	(0.3)
1st_Mordaunt	-0.7	-0.8
	(0.7)	(0.6)
1st_Tugendhat	-0.8	-1.0
	(0.7)	(0.7)
1st_Braverman	0.5	0.8
	(0.7)	(0.6)
2nd_Sunak	-1.7	-1.7
	(0.2)	(0.2)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.6	1.8
	(0.5)	(0.4)
2nd_Johnson	-1.0	-1.2
	(0.4)	(0.4)
grp_onc	-1.2	-1.0
	(0.2)	(0.3)
grp_csg	-2.3
	(0.1)
grp_erg	0.5	0.0
	(0.7)	(1.0)
grp_fm	3.8*	2.9*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.0	0.1
	(1.0)	(1.0)
grp_cen	0.1	-0.7
	(0.9)	(0.6)
grp_crg	-3.5+	-3.6+
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	0.7	1.2
	(0.5)	(0.2)
new_in_2024	2.5	1.3
	(0.3)	(0.6)
Num.Obs.	120	120
AIC	76.8	74.2
BIC	146.5	138.3
RMSE	0.15	0.16
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Unknown

	r1 Unknown standard	r1 Unknown stepwise	r2 Unknown standard	r2 Unknown stepwise	r3 Unknown standard	r3 Unknown stepwise	r4 Unknown standard	r4 Unknown stepwise	r5 Unknown standard	r5 Unknown stepwise	r1 lr backed Unknown standard	r1 lr backed Unknown stepwise	r2 lr backed Unknown standard	r2 lr backed Unknown stepwise	r3 lr backed Unknown standard	r3 lr backed Unknown stepwise	r4 lr backed Unknown standard	r4 lr backed Unknown stepwise	r5 lr backed Unknown standard	r5 lr backed Unknown stepwise
(Intercept)	3.7	1.7**	3.3	1.9**	1.3	1.5*	0.0	1.2+	5.1	0.2	3.7	1.7**	3.3	1.9**	1.3	1.5*	0.0	1.2+	5.1	0.2
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(1.0)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.5)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(1.0)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.5)
female	0.7		0.4		0.1		0.5		-0.2		0.7		0.4		0.1		0.5		-0.2
	(0.2)		(0.5)		(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.2)		(0.5)		(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.7)
ethnic	-0.8		-0.2		-0.7		-1.1		-0.2		-0.8		-0.2		-0.7		-1.1		-0.2
	(0.3)		(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.1)		(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.1)		(0.8)
lgbt	1.0		0.4		0.1		-0.2		0.8		1.0		0.4		0.1		-0.2		0.8
	(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.5)
elected	-0.5+	-0.4*	-0.5+	-0.4**	-0.5	-0.4**	-0.5+	-0.2+	-0.2		-0.5+	-0.4*	-0.5+	-0.4**	-0.5	-0.4**	-0.5+	-0.2+	-0.2
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.6)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.6)
opp_mp	-0.1		-0.5	-0.7	-0.1		-0.1		-0.2		-0.1		-0.5	-0.7	-0.1		-0.1		-0.2
	(0.8)		(0.4)	(0.1)	(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.8)		(0.4)	(0.1)	(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.7)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0
	(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.5)
1st_Truss	-0.8	-1.1*	-0.6		-1.3+	-1.0*	-1.0	-1.0*	-0.7		-0.8	-1.1*	-0.6		-1.3+	-1.0*	-1.0	-1.0*	-0.7
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.4)
1st_Sunak	-0.1		-0.3		-1.0		-0.4		-0.7		-0.1		-0.3		-1.0		-0.4		-0.7
	(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.2)		(0.6)		(0.4)		(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.2)		(0.6)		(0.4)
1st_Badenoch	-3.1*	-2.8+	-2.8+	-2.8+	-2.9*	-2.5	-2.6+	-2.7+	-3.3*	-3.5*	-3.1*	-2.8+	-2.8+	-2.8+	-2.9*	-2.5	-2.6+	-2.7+	-3.3*	-3.5*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-0.6		-0.8		-0.5		0.1		0.0		-0.6		-0.8		-0.5		0.1		0.0
	(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(1.0)		(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(1.0)
1st_Tugendhat	-1.5		-1.5	-1.3	-1.2		0.4		1.2	1.5	-1.5		-1.5	-1.3	-1.2		0.4		1.2	1.5
	(0.2)		(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)		(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.3)	(0.2)
1st_Braverman	0.9		0.6		0.6		0.7		-0.4		0.9		0.6		0.6		0.7		-0.4
	(0.4)		(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.7)		(0.4)		(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.7)
2nd_Sunak	0.4		0.0		0.4		0.5		-0.3		0.4		0.0		0.4		0.5		-0.3
	(0.6)		(1.0)		(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.6)		(1.0)		(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.7)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.5		1.5		1.3		0.1		0.1		1.5		1.5		1.3		0.1		0.1
	(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.9)
2nd_Johnson	-2.2+	-1.7+	-1.4	-1.5+	-0.8		-0.6		-0.5		-2.2+	-1.7+	-1.4	-1.5+	-0.8		-0.6		-0.5
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.6)
grp_onc	-0.4		-0.7		-0.7		-0.5		-0.4		-0.4		-0.7		-0.7		-0.5		-0.4
	(0.5)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.4)
grp_csg	0.4		-0.4		-0.5		-0.4		-0.7		0.4		-0.4		-0.5		-0.4		-0.7
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.5)
grp_erg	0.6		0.4		0.4		-0.2		0.0		0.6		0.4		0.4		-0.2		0.0
	(0.5)		(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(1.0)		(0.5)		(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(1.0)
grp_fm	0.5		0.9	1.1	0.5		1.1		2.0*	1.4+	0.5		0.9	1.1	0.5		1.1		2.0*	1.4+
	(0.6)		(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.5)		(0.2)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.6)		(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.5)		(0.2)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.4		0.4		0.3		0.5		-0.1		0.4		0.4		0.3		0.5		-0.1
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.4)		(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.4)		(0.8)
grp_cen	0.2		0.4		0.2		0.7		-0.3		0.2		0.4		0.2		0.7		-0.3
	(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.7)		(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.7)
grp_crg	-0.4		-0.5		-1.2		-1.0		-0.9	-1.2+	-0.4		-0.5		-1.2		-1.0		-0.9	-1.2+
	(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	0.6		0.4		0.4		0.2		0.1		0.6		0.4		0.4		0.2		0.1
	(0.2)		(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.2)		(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.9)
new_in_2024	1.3		0.1		-0.4		0.9		-0.2		1.3		0.1		-0.4		0.9		-0.2
	(0.3)		(1.0)		(0.7)		(0.4)		(0.9)		(0.3)		(1.0)		(0.7)		(0.4)		(0.9)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	174.6	149.3	179.7	153.2	178.3	150.6	186.8	157.4	183.9	153.3	174.6	149.3	179.7	153.2	178.3	150.6	186.8	157.4	183.9	153.3
BIC	244.3	163.3	249.4	172.8	248.0	161.8	256.5	168.5	253.5	167.2	244.3	163.3	249.4	172.8	248.0	161.8	256.5	168.5	253.5	167.2
RMSE	0.42	0.45	0.43	0.45	0.43	0.45	0.44	0.47	0.44	0.46	0.42	0.45	0.43	0.45	0.43	0.45	0.44	0.47	0.44	0.46
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001