Regression Tables

By Candidate

Regression Output for Badenoch

	r1 Badenoch standard	r1 Badenoch stepwise	r2 Badenoch standard	r2 Badenoch stepwise	r3 Badenoch standard	r3 Badenoch stepwise	r4 Badenoch standard	r4 Badenoch stepwise	r5 Badenoch standard	r5 Badenoch stepwise
(Intercept)	-7.2	-3.4***	-5.4	-4.4***	-3.9	-6.5***	-3.7	-7.0***	1.9	-2.3***
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(0.7)	(<0.1)
female	0.1		0.2		0.4		0.3		0.3
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.7)		(0.7)
ethnic	1.2	1.6*	1.0		1.5+	1.8*	1.9*	2.4**	1.5+	1.4*
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
lgbt	-0.7		-1.3		-1.0		-0.9		-1.1
	(0.7)		(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.4)
elected	0.6+		0.8*	0.3	0.8*	0.6*	0.7*	0.7*	-0.1
	(<0.1)		(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)
opp_mp	1.7+	1.7*	1.9*	1.8**	1.3+	0.8	1.3+	1.1	1.8**	1.8**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		-0.1
	(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.4)
1st_Truss	1.6		2.1*	0.9	2.5*	2.4*	2.7*	2.9*	0.7
	(0.1)		(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.4)
1st_Sunak	0.3		0.6		1.5	2.4*	1.7	2.5*	0.0
	(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(1.0)
1st_Badenoch	1.5	2.9**	1.2	2.2*	1.5	2.7*	1.5	2.5+	0.9	1.3
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(0.2)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.0		-1.6		-0.2		-0.5		-0.2
	(0.5)		(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.8)
1st_Tugendhat	0.9		0.7		0.3		0.2		0.7
	(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.6)
1st_Braverman	-2.2	-2.9	-2.5	-2.4	-2.8	-3.2+	-3.3+	-3.9*	-1.8	-1.2
	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.3)
2nd_Sunak	0.7		1.0		1.0		0.8		0.5
	(0.4)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.4)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.5		2.0		0.6		0.7		0.9
	(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.5)
2nd_Johnson	-3.2+	-2.5	-4.2*	-2.9	-4.1*	-4.4*	-4.6*	-5.4*	-4.4*	-2.7+
	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_onc	0.3		0.3		0.3		0.2		-0.4
	(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.5)
grp_csg	1.3		1.4		1.3		1.2		0.6
	(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.7)
grp_erg	1.1		1.7+		1.7+	1.5+	1.9+	2.0*	1.5
	(0.3)		(<0.1)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)
grp_fm	-1.0		-1.4		-1.4	-1.4	-1.6	-1.6	-1.0
	(0.4)		(0.2)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.3)
grp_lvl_up	0.1		-0.1		-0.1		0.1		-0.4
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.6)
grp_cen	-0.4		-0.8		-1.0		-1.1	-0.7	0.1
	(0.7)		(0.4)		(0.2)		(0.2)	(0.4)	(0.9)
grp_crg	-0.3		-0.6		0.3		0.7		-0.8
	(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.4)
has_greenbelt	-0.4		-0.4		-0.4		-0.4		-0.5
	(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.4)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	108.2	76.9	115.8	92.5	120.5	97.6	118.1	95.5	144.2	117.3
BIC	175.1	93.6	182.7	112.0	187.4	128.3	185.0	128.9	211.1	134.1
Log.Lik.	-30.120	-32.434	-33.893	-39.246	-36.266	-37.821	-35.069	-35.730	-48.086	-52.669
RMSE	0.26	0.28	0.29	0.32	0.30	0.31	0.30	0.30	0.36	0.38
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Jenrick

	r1 Jenrick standard	r1 Jenrick stepwise	r2 Jenrick standard	r2 Jenrick stepwise	r3 Jenrick standard	r3 Jenrick stepwise	r4 Jenrick standard	r4 Jenrick stepwise	r5 Jenrick standard	r5 Jenrick stepwise
(Intercept)	-10.7+	-15.2*	-7.6	-4.0**	-7.7	-1.3**	-7.8	-1.1**	-9.0	-3.6**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
female	-1.2	-1.3	-0.4		-0.1		-0.2		-0.2
	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.8)
ethnic	-1.2	-2.3	-1.4	-1.7	-1.4	-1.3	-1.6	-1.3	-1.1
	(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.3)
lgbt	-0.1		-0.3		-0.3		-0.5		-0.6
	(1.0)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.7)
elected	0.3	0.6*	0.3	0.5*	0.2		0.2		0.4	0.4*
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.1)	(<0.1)
opp_mp	-0.6		-0.8		-1.0	-0.9	-1.1	-1.0+	-1.4+	-1.3*
	(0.5)		(0.3)		(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
mplr	0.1	0.1+	0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)
1st_Truss	-0.3		-0.4		-0.1		-0.1		0.3
	(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.7)
1st_Sunak	-0.1		0.1		0.4		0.4		0.6
	(1.0)		(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.6)
1st_Badenoch	2.3+	2.4*	2.2+		2.4*	2.1*	2.4*	2.1*	2.0+	2.1*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.9	-1.3	0.2		0.3		0.2		0.0
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(1.0)
1st_Tugendhat	-2.0	-1.8	-2.5	-2.7	-2.4	-2.5	-2.4	-2.5	-2.3	-2.1
	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)
1st_Braverman	-0.5		0.1		0.7		0.6		1.5	2.2*
	(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.2)	(<0.1)
2nd_Sunak	-0.8		-1.6		-1.3	-0.7	-1.4	-0.7	-0.8
	(0.4)		(0.1)		(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.4)
2nd_Mordaunt	0.9		-1.9		-1.6		-1.6		-1.0
	(0.7)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.6)
2nd_Johnson	3.6**	4.2**	3.9**	4.1**	3.4*	3.4**	3.4*	3.3**	3.2*	3.3**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_onc	1.9+	1.7+	1.9+	0.9	1.4	0.8	1.5+	0.7	1.8*	1.6*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_csg	1.2		1.1	3.0*	1.0	2.1+	0.9	2.0	1.0
	(0.3)		(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(0.1)	(0.4)
grp_erg	-0.8		-1.8	-1.1	-1.7	-1.7+	-1.5	-1.7+	-1.2
	(0.4)		(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)
grp_fm	-2.1	-2.8+	-3.2*	-5.3*	-3.1*	-3.9*	-3.1*	-3.8*	-3.4*	-3.2*
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.4		0.3		0.1		0.0		0.1
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(1.0)		(0.8)
grp_cen	1.2	1.1	1.0		1.0		0.9		0.6
	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.3)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.5)
grp_crg	2.8*	2.3*	2.8*	2.7**	2.7*	3.0**	2.8*	2.9**	2.7*	2.6**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	-1.0	-1.2+	-0.4		-0.1		-0.3		-0.2
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.7)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	103.0	86.0	119.5	97.0	124.3	104.0	125.6	106.6	129.5	108.9
BIC	169.9	125.1	186.4	124.9	191.2	137.5	192.5	140.1	196.4	136.8
Log.Lik.	-27.479	-29.020	-35.746	-38.502	-38.152	-40.021	-38.797	-41.306	-40.763	-44.441
RMSE	0.25	0.27	0.30	0.32	0.31	0.32	0.32	0.33	0.33	0.34
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Cleverly

	r1 Cleverly standard	r1 Cleverly stepwise	r2 Cleverly standard	r2 Cleverly stepwise	r3 Cleverly standard	r3 Cleverly stepwise	r4 Cleverly standard	r4 Cleverly stepwise
(Intercept)	-2.7	-2.2***	-6.1	-1.5***	-1.2	-1.4***	0.3	-1.3***
	(0.7)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(1.0)	(<0.1)
female	-0.5		-0.7		-0.8		-0.7
	(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.3)
ethnic	1.1		0.9		1.6+		1.4
	(0.2)		(0.3)		(<0.1)		(0.1)
lgbt	0.7		1.8		1.5		1.3	1.6
	(0.6)		(0.1)		(0.2)		(0.3)	(0.1)
elected	0.0		-0.2		-0.3		-0.3
	(0.9)		(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.2)
opp_mp	0.0		0.2		0.2	0.9	0.2
	(1.0)		(0.9)		(0.7)	(0.1)	(0.8)
mplr	0.0		0.1		0.0		0.0
	(0.8)		(0.4)		(0.9)		(0.9)
1st_Truss	-0.1		0.3		0.5		0.3
	(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.7)
1st_Sunak	-0.4		-0.2		0.2		-0.3
	(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.7)
1st_Badenoch	-0.5		-1.3	-1.9	-1.6	-2.4	-1.8	-2.2
	(0.7)		(0.4)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)
1st_Mordaunt	0.3		-0.6		0.5		0.4
	(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)
1st_Tugendhat	2.0+	2.6*	1.7	2.3*	1.6	1.8+	1.5
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)
1st_Braverman	0.1		1.1		1.4		1.4
	(1.0)		(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.3)
2nd_Sunak	-0.2		-1.2		-1.3	-1.1	-1.3
	(0.8)		(0.2)		(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.2)
2nd_Mordaunt	-0.5		-0.2		-0.3		0.3
	(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.8)
2nd_Johnson	-0.1		-0.5		-0.8		-0.9
	(1.0)		(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.5)
grp_onc	0.0		-1.0	-0.9	-0.6		-0.8
	(1.0)		(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.3)
grp_csg	0.4		-0.2		-0.3		-0.4
	(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.8)
grp_erg	0.2		-0.5		-0.7		-0.9
	(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.5)
grp_fm	0.7		2.1+	2.2*	1.9+	1.6+	2.2*	1.9*
	(0.5)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	-1.1	-2.1	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6+	-1.2	-1.8*	-1.7*
	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_cen	-0.6		-1.0	-2.4	-1.0	-1.9+	-1.3	-1.5
	(0.6)		(0.4)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)
grp_crg	-1.1	-1.4	-2.3	-1.8	-2.0	-2.5	-2.0
	(0.5)	(0.4)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)
has_greenbelt	-0.3		0.1		0.2		-0.1
	(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.9)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	101.6	60.5	102.5	75.2	117.6	93.2	122.1	98.1
BIC	168.5	71.6	169.4	97.5	184.5	118.3	189.0	114.8
Log.Lik.	-26.778	-26.225	-27.230	-29.590	-34.779	-37.600	-37.040	-43.026
RMSE	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.27	0.29	0.31	0.30	0.33
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Tugendhat

	r1 Tugendhat standard	r1 Tugendhat stepwise	r2 Tugendhat standard	r2 Tugendhat stepwise	r3 Tugendhat standard	r3 Tugendhat stepwise
(Intercept)	6.4	10.9+	6.4	10.9+	3.2	-1.8***
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)
female	0.4		0.4		0.3
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.6)
ethnic	0.5		0.5		-0.2
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.8)
lgbt	-0.6	-2.9	-0.6	-2.9	-0.4
	(0.8)	(0.3)	(0.8)	(0.3)	(0.8)
elected	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.4	0.0
	(0.7)	(0.1)	(0.7)	(0.1)	(0.9)
opp_mp	-0.9		-0.9		-0.8	-1.6*
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)	(<0.1)
mplr	-0.1	-0.2*	-0.1	-0.2*	-0.1
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.5)
1st_Truss	0.6		0.6		0.0
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(1.0)
1st_Sunak	0.1		0.1		0.0
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(1.0)
1st_Badenoch	0.1		0.1		0.3
	(1.0)		(1.0)		(0.8)
1st_Mordaunt	1.2		1.2		0.5
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.6)
1st_Tugendhat	2.3+	3.6**	2.3+	3.6**	1.7	2.0+
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Braverman	1.2		1.2		0.8
	(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.5)
2nd_Sunak	0.0		0.0		-0.3
	(1.0)		(1.0)		(0.7)
2nd_Mordaunt	-2.2	-2.1	-2.2	-2.1	-2.6	-4.5+
	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(<0.1)
2nd_Johnson	-1.0		-1.0		-0.4
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.8)
grp_onc	-0.5		-0.5		-0.1
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.9)
grp_csg	-0.4		-0.4		-0.8
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.6)
grp_erg	-0.1		-0.1		-0.5	-2.3
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.7)	(0.1)
grp_fm	1.6		1.6		1.4	1.7+
	(0.1)		(0.1)		(0.2)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	-0.1		-0.1		-0.5
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.5)
grp_cen	0.2		0.2		0.7	1.5+
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.4)	(<0.1)
grp_crg	0.8		0.8		0.8
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)
has_greenbelt	-1.0	-1.8+	-1.0	-1.8+	-0.9
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	96.4	60.4	96.4	60.4	110.2	75.3
BIC	163.3	79.9	163.3	79.9	177.1	94.8
Log.Lik.	-24.207	-23.195	-24.207	-23.195	-31.109	-30.655
RMSE	0.23	0.24	0.23	0.24	0.26	0.28
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Stride

	r1 Stride standard	r1 Stride stepwise	r2 Stride standard	r2 Stride stepwise
(Intercept)	-1.8	-3.6***	-1.8	-3.6***
	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)
female	-0.4		-0.4
	(0.6)		(0.6)
ethnic	-0.3		-0.3
	(0.8)		(0.8)
lgbt	-0.6		-0.6
	(0.7)		(0.7)
elected	-0.1		-0.1
	(0.7)		(0.7)
opp_mp	0.9		0.9
	(0.3)		(0.3)
mplr	0.0		0.0
	(1.0)		(1.0)
1st_Truss	-0.7		-0.7
	(0.6)		(0.6)
1st_Sunak	-0.3		-0.3
	(0.8)		(0.8)
1st_Badenoch	0.7		0.7
	(0.6)		(0.6)
1st_Mordaunt	2.1*	2.0*	2.1*	2.0*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Tugendhat	0.7		0.7
	(0.7)		(0.7)
1st_Braverman	1.7		1.7
	(0.2)		(0.2)
2nd_Sunak	0.8	1.4+	0.8	1.4+
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)
2nd_Mordaunt	-0.4		-0.4
	(0.8)		(0.8)
2nd_Johnson	0.6		0.6
	(0.7)		(0.7)
grp_onc	0.1		0.1
	(0.9)		(0.9)
grp_csg	-0.2		-0.2
	(0.9)		(0.9)
grp_erg	-0.2		-0.2
	(0.8)		(0.8)
grp_fm	-0.6		-0.6
	(0.6)		(0.6)
grp_lvl_up	-0.7		-0.7
	(0.4)		(0.4)
grp_cen	-1.0		-1.0
	(0.3)		(0.3)
grp_crg	-0.8		-0.8
	(0.5)		(0.5)
has_greenbelt	0.3		0.3
	(0.7)		(0.7)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120
AIC	96.6	57.8	96.6	57.8
BIC	163.5	66.1	163.5	66.1
Log.Lik.	-24.303	-25.888	-24.303	-25.888
RMSE	0.22	0.24	0.22	0.24
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Patel

	r1 Patel standard	r1 Patel stepwise
(Intercept)	-2.5	4.1
	(0.8)	(0.6)
female	-0.7	0.0
	(0.5)	(1.0)
ethnic	0.4	0.3
	(0.7)	(0.8)
lgbt	0.7	0.9
	(0.7)	(0.6)
elected	-0.4	-0.2
	(0.2)	(0.5)
opp_mp	-1.0	-1.2
	(0.4)	(0.3)
mplr	0.0	-0.1
	(0.8)	(0.4)
1st_Truss	2.2*	2.2*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Sunak	0.3	0.0
	(0.8)	(1.0)
1st_Badenoch	-0.5	-0.5
	(0.7)	(0.8)
1st_Mordaunt	-0.3	-0.3
	(0.9)	(0.8)
1st_Tugendhat	-0.8	-1.7
	(0.7)	(0.5)
1st_Braverman	0.8	0.6
	(0.6)	(0.7)
2nd_Sunak	-1.8	-1.0
	(0.1)	(0.4)
2nd_Mordaunt	0.5	0.6
	(0.8)	(0.8)
2nd_Johnson	-1.2	-0.2
	(0.4)	(0.8)
grp_onc	-1.3	-0.7
	(0.2)	(0.5)
grp_csg	-2.0	-3.5+
	(0.2)	(<0.1)
grp_erg	0.9	0.6
	(0.5)	(0.7)
grp_fm	3.1*	3.0*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	-0.2	-0.3
	(0.8)	(0.7)
grp_cen	-0.2	0.1
	(0.8)	(0.9)
grp_crg	-3.2+
	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	1.0	0.9
	(0.3)	(0.3)
Num.Obs.	120	120
AIC	75.4	76.8
BIC	142.3	141.0
Log.Lik.	-13.708	-15.420
RMSE	0.16	0.17
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Unknown

	r1 Unknown standard	r1 Unknown stepwise	r2 Unknown standard	r2 Unknown stepwise	r3 Unknown standard	r3 Unknown stepwise	r4 Unknown standard	r4 Unknown stepwise	r5 Unknown standard	r5 Unknown stepwise
(Intercept)	4.7	1.7**	3.4	1.9**	1.0	1.5*	0.8	1.2+	5.2	0.5+
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(0.9)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)
female	0.6		0.4		0.1		0.4		-0.2
	(0.3)		(0.4)		(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.7)
ethnic	-0.8		-0.2		-0.7		-1.1		-0.2
	(0.3)		(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.1)		(0.8)
lgbt	1.0		0.4		0.1		-0.1		0.8
	(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.5)
elected	-0.4	-0.4*	-0.5*	-0.4**	-0.5*	-0.4**	-0.4+	-0.2+	-0.2
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)
opp_mp	-0.3		-0.5	-0.7	0.0		-0.3		-0.4
	(0.5)		(0.3)	(0.1)	(1.0)		(0.6)		(0.5)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0
	(0.5)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.5)
1st_Truss	-1.1	-1.1*	-0.6		-1.3+	-1.0*	-1.1	-1.0*	-0.6
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.4)
1st_Sunak	-0.4		-0.3		-1.0		-0.6		-0.6
	(0.6)		(0.7)		(0.2)		(0.5)		(0.4)
1st_Badenoch	-3.1*	-2.8+	-2.8+	-2.8+	-3.0*	-2.5	-2.6+	-2.7+	-3.3*	-3.6*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-0.7		-0.8		-0.5		0.1		0.1
	(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.9)
1st_Tugendhat	-1.7		-1.6	-1.3	-1.1		0.3		1.2	1.7
	(0.2)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.8)		(0.3)	(0.1)
1st_Braverman	0.7		0.6		0.7		0.6		-0.3
	(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.8)
2nd_Sunak	0.2		0.0		0.5		0.4		-0.1
	(0.8)		(1.0)		(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.8)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.2		1.5		1.4		-0.1		0.2
	(0.3)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.9)		(0.9)
2nd_Johnson	-2.2+	-1.7+	-1.4	-1.5+	-0.8		-0.6		-0.5
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.6)
grp_onc	-0.3		-0.7		-0.7		-0.5		-0.6	-0.7+
	(0.6)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.3)	(<0.1)
grp_csg	0.2		-0.4		-0.4		-0.6		-0.6
	(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.5)
grp_erg	0.9		0.4		0.4		0.0		-0.1
	(0.3)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(1.0)		(0.9)
grp_fm	0.3		0.9	1.1	0.5		0.9		2.0*	1.6*
	(0.7)		(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.5)		(0.2)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.2		0.4		0.4		0.3		-0.1
	(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.8)
grp_cen	0.0		0.4		0.3		0.6		-0.2
	(1.0)		(0.6)		(0.7)		(0.3)		(0.7)
grp_crg	-0.4		-0.5		-1.2		-1.0		-0.9	-1.4+
	(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	0.5		0.4		0.4		0.1		0.2
	(0.3)		(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.8)		(0.7)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	174.0	149.3	177.6	153.2	176.3	150.6	185.6	157.4	180.5	151.7
BIC	240.9	163.3	244.5	172.8	243.2	161.8	252.5	168.5	247.4	168.5
Log.Lik.	-63.021	-69.666	-64.784	-69.621	-64.139	-71.305	-68.789	-74.687	-66.240	-69.865
RMSE	0.42	0.45	0.43	0.45	0.43	0.45	0.45	0.47	0.43	0.45
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

By Rounds

Regression Output for Round 1

	Badenoch standard	Badenoch stepwise	Jenrick standard	Jenrick stepwise	Cleverly standard	Cleverly stepwise	Tugendhat standard	Tugendhat stepwise	Stride standard	Stride stepwise	Patel standard	Patel stepwise	Unknown standard	Unknown stepwise
(Intercept)	-7.2	-3.4***	-10.7+	-15.2*	-2.7	-2.2***	6.4	10.9+	-1.8	-3.6***	-2.5	4.1	4.7	1.7**
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(0.6)	(0.3)	(<0.1)
female	0.1		-1.2	-1.3	-0.5		0.4		-0.4		-0.7	0.0	0.6
	(0.8)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.5)	(1.0)	(0.3)
ethnic	1.2	1.6*	-1.2	-2.3	1.1		0.5		-0.3		0.4	0.3	-0.8
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.2)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.7)	(0.8)	(0.3)
lgbt	-0.7		-0.1		0.7		-0.6	-2.9	-0.6		0.7	0.9	1.0
	(0.7)		(1.0)		(0.6)		(0.8)	(0.3)	(0.7)		(0.7)	(0.6)	(0.4)
elected	0.6+		0.3	0.6*	0.0		0.1	0.4	-0.1		-0.4	-0.2	-0.4	-0.4*
	(<0.1)		(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.9)		(0.7)	(0.1)	(0.7)		(0.2)	(0.5)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
opp_mp	1.7+	1.7*	-0.6		0.0		-0.9		0.9		-1.0	-1.2	-0.3
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(1.0)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.4)	(0.3)	(0.5)
mplr	0.0		0.1	0.1+	0.0		-0.1	-0.2*	0.0		0.0	-0.1	0.0
	(0.9)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.8)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(1.0)		(0.8)	(0.4)	(0.5)
1st_Truss	1.6		-0.3		-0.1		0.6		-0.7		2.2*	2.2*	-1.1	-1.1*
	(0.1)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Sunak	0.3		-0.1		-0.4		0.1		-0.3		0.3	0.0	-0.4
	(0.8)		(1.0)		(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.8)	(1.0)	(0.6)
1st_Badenoch	1.5	2.9**	2.3+	2.4*	-0.5		0.1		0.7		-0.5	-0.5	-3.1*	-2.8+
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(1.0)		(0.6)		(0.7)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.0		-1.9	-1.3	0.3		1.2		2.1*	2.0*	-0.3	-0.3	-0.7
	(0.5)		(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.8)		(0.3)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.9)	(0.8)	(0.5)
1st_Tugendhat	0.9		-2.0	-1.8	2.0+	2.6*	2.3+	3.6**	0.7		-0.8	-1.7	-1.7
	(0.5)		(0.3)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(0.7)	(0.5)	(0.2)
1st_Braverman	-2.2	-2.9	-0.5		0.1		1.2		1.7		0.8	0.6	0.7
	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.7)		(1.0)		(0.4)		(0.2)		(0.6)	(0.7)	(0.5)
2nd_Sunak	0.7		-0.8		-0.2		0.0		0.8	1.4+	-1.8	-1.0	0.2
	(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.8)		(1.0)		(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(0.4)	(0.8)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.5		0.9		-0.5		-2.2	-2.1	-0.4		0.5	0.6	1.2
	(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.8)		(0.8)	(0.8)	(0.3)
2nd_Johnson	-3.2+	-2.5	3.6**	4.2**	-0.1		-1.0		0.6		-1.2	-0.2	-2.2+	-1.7+
	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(1.0)		(0.5)		(0.7)		(0.4)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_onc	0.3		1.9+	1.7+	0.0		-0.5		0.1		-1.3	-0.7	-0.3
	(0.7)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(1.0)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.2)	(0.5)	(0.6)
grp_csg	1.3		1.2		0.4		-0.4		-0.2		-2.0	-3.5+	0.2
	(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.8)
grp_erg	1.1		-0.8		0.2		-0.1		-0.2		0.9	0.6	0.9
	(0.3)		(0.4)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.5)	(0.7)	(0.3)
grp_fm	-1.0		-2.1	-2.8+	0.7		1.6		-0.6		3.1*	3.0*	0.3
	(0.4)		(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.1)		(0.6)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)
grp_lvl_up	0.1		0.4		-1.1	-2.1	-0.1		-0.7		-0.2	-0.3	0.2
	(0.9)		(0.6)		(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.8)	(0.7)	(0.8)
grp_cen	-0.4		1.2	1.1	-0.6		0.2		-1.0		-0.2	0.1	0.0
	(0.7)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.3)		(0.8)	(0.9)	(1.0)
grp_crg	-0.3		2.8*	2.3*	-1.1	-1.4	0.8		-0.8		-3.2+		-0.4
	(0.8)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(0.4)	(0.5)		(0.5)		(<0.1)		(0.6)
has_greenbelt	-0.4		-1.0	-1.2+	-0.3		-1.0	-1.8+	0.3		1.0	0.9	0.5
	(0.6)		(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.6)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	108.2	76.9	103.0	86.0	101.6	60.5	96.4	60.4	96.6	57.8	75.4	76.8	174.0	149.3
BIC	175.1	93.6	169.9	125.1	168.5	71.6	163.3	79.9	163.5	66.1	142.3	141.0	240.9	163.3
Log.Lik.	-30.120	-32.434	-27.479	-29.020	-26.778	-26.225	-24.207	-23.195	-24.303	-25.888	-13.708	-15.420	-63.021	-69.666
RMSE	0.26	0.28	0.25	0.27	0.24	0.24	0.23	0.24	0.22	0.24	0.16	0.17	0.42	0.45
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Round 2

	Badenoch standard	Badenoch stepwise	Jenrick standard	Jenrick stepwise	Cleverly standard	Cleverly stepwise	Tugendhat standard	Tugendhat stepwise	Stride standard	Stride stepwise	Unknown standard	Unknown stepwise
(Intercept)	-5.4	-4.4***	-7.6	-4.0**	-6.1	-1.5***	6.4	10.9+	-1.8	-3.6***	3.4	1.9**
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)
female	0.2		-0.4		-0.7		0.4		-0.4		0.4
	(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.4)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.4)
ethnic	1.0		-1.4	-1.7	0.9		0.5		-0.3		-0.2
	(0.2)		(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.8)
lgbt	-1.3		-0.3		1.8		-0.6	-2.9	-0.6		0.4
	(0.4)		(0.9)		(0.1)		(0.8)	(0.3)	(0.7)		(0.7)
elected	0.8*	0.3	0.3	0.5*	-0.2		0.1	0.4	-0.1		-0.5*	-0.4**
	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.7)	(0.1)	(0.7)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)
opp_mp	1.9*	1.8**	-0.8		0.2		-0.9		0.9		-0.5	-0.7
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)	(0.1)
mplr	0.0		0.1		0.1		-0.1	-0.2*	0.0		0.0
	(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.4)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(1.0)		(0.8)
1st_Truss	2.1*	0.9	-0.4		0.3		0.6		-0.7		-0.6
	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.4)
1st_Sunak	0.6		0.1		-0.2		0.1		-0.3		-0.3
	(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.7)
1st_Badenoch	1.2	2.2*	2.2+		-1.3	-1.9	0.1		0.7		-2.8+	-2.8+
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)		(0.4)	(0.3)	(1.0)		(0.6)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.6		0.2		-0.6		1.2		2.1*	2.0*	-0.8
	(0.3)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.3)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.4)
1st_Tugendhat	0.7		-2.5	-2.7	1.7	2.3*	2.3+	3.6**	0.7		-1.6	-1.3
	(0.6)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(0.2)	(0.2)
1st_Braverman	-2.5	-2.4	0.1		1.1		1.2		1.7		0.6
	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.2)		(0.6)
2nd_Sunak	1.0		-1.6		-1.2		0.0		0.8	1.4+	0.0
	(0.2)		(0.1)		(0.2)		(1.0)		(0.4)	(<0.1)	(1.0)
2nd_Mordaunt	2.0		-1.9		-0.2		-2.2	-2.1	-0.4		1.5
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.8)		(0.2)
2nd_Johnson	-4.2*	-2.9	3.9**	4.1**	-0.5		-1.0		0.6		-1.4	-1.5+
	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.7)		(0.2)	(<0.1)
grp_onc	0.3		1.9+	0.9	-1.0	-0.9	-0.5		0.1		-0.7
	(0.6)		(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.2)
grp_csg	1.4		1.1	3.0*	-0.2		-0.4		-0.2		-0.4
	(0.4)		(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.7)
grp_erg	1.7+		-1.8	-1.1	-0.5		-0.1		-0.2		0.4
	(<0.1)		(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.6)
grp_fm	-1.4		-3.2*	-5.3*	2.1+	2.2*	1.6		-0.6		0.9	1.1
	(0.2)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)		(0.6)		(0.2)	(0.1)
grp_lvl_up	-0.1		0.3		-1.7	-1.7	-0.1		-0.7		0.4
	(0.9)		(0.6)		(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.5)
grp_cen	-0.8		1.0		-1.0	-2.4	0.2		-1.0		0.4
	(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.4)	(0.1)	(0.9)		(0.3)		(0.6)
grp_crg	-0.6		2.8*	2.7**	-2.3	-1.8	0.8		-0.8		-0.5
	(0.6)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)
has_greenbelt	-0.4		-0.4		0.1		-1.0	-1.8+	0.3		0.4
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.9)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(0.4)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	115.8	92.5	119.5	97.0	102.5	75.2	96.4	60.4	96.6	57.8	177.6	153.2
BIC	182.7	112.0	186.4	124.9	169.4	97.5	163.3	79.9	163.5	66.1	244.5	172.8
Log.Lik.	-33.893	-39.246	-35.746	-38.502	-27.230	-29.590	-24.207	-23.195	-24.303	-25.888	-64.784	-69.621
RMSE	0.29	0.32	0.30	0.32	0.24	0.27	0.23	0.24	0.22	0.24	0.43	0.45
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Round 3

	Badenoch standard	Badenoch stepwise	Jenrick standard	Jenrick stepwise	Cleverly standard	Cleverly stepwise	Tugendhat standard	Tugendhat stepwise	Unknown standard	Unknown stepwise
(Intercept)	-3.9	-6.5***	-7.7	-1.3**	-1.2	-1.4***	3.2	-1.8***	1.0	1.5*
	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)
female	0.4		-0.1		-0.8		0.3		0.1
	(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.3)		(0.6)		(0.8)
ethnic	1.5+	1.8*	-1.4	-1.3	1.6+		-0.2		-0.7
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(<0.1)		(0.8)		(0.3)
lgbt	-1.0		-0.3		1.5		-0.4		0.1
	(0.5)		(0.9)		(0.2)		(0.8)		(0.9)
elected	0.8*	0.6*	0.2		-0.3		0.0		-0.5*	-0.4**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.9)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)
opp_mp	1.3+	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	0.2	0.9	-0.8	-1.6*	0.0
	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.7)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(1.0)
mplr	0.0		0.1		0.0		-0.1		0.0
	(0.6)		(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.5)		(0.8)
1st_Truss	2.5*	2.4*	-0.1		0.5		0.0		-1.3+	-1.0*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.9)		(0.5)		(1.0)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Sunak	1.5	2.4*	0.4		0.2		0.0		-1.0
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(0.9)		(1.0)		(0.2)
1st_Badenoch	1.5	2.7*	2.4*	2.1*	-1.6	-2.4	0.3		-3.0*	-2.5
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.8)		(<0.1)	(0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-0.2		0.3		0.5		0.5		-0.5
	(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.6)
1st_Tugendhat	0.3		-2.4	-2.5	1.6	1.8+	1.7	2.0+	-1.1
	(0.8)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.4)
1st_Braverman	-2.8	-3.2+	0.7		1.4		0.8		0.7
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.6)		(0.3)		(0.5)		(0.5)
2nd_Sunak	1.0		-1.3	-0.7	-1.3	-1.1	-0.3		0.5
	(0.2)		(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.7)		(0.4)
2nd_Mordaunt	0.6		-1.6		-0.3		-2.6	-4.5+	1.4
	(0.7)		(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)
2nd_Johnson	-4.1*	-4.4*	3.4*	3.4**	-0.8		-0.4		-0.8
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.8)		(0.4)
grp_onc	0.3		1.4	0.8	-0.6		-0.1		-0.7
	(0.6)		(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.9)		(0.2)
grp_csg	1.3		1.0	2.1+	-0.3		-0.8		-0.4
	(0.4)		(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.7)
grp_erg	1.7+	1.5+	-1.7	-1.7+	-0.7		-0.5	-2.3	0.4
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.7)	(0.1)	(0.6)
grp_fm	-1.4	-1.4	-3.1*	-3.9*	1.9+	1.6+	1.4	1.7+	0.5
	(0.2)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.5)
grp_lvl_up	-0.1		0.1		-1.6+	-1.2	-0.5		0.4
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(<0.1)	(0.1)	(0.5)		(0.5)
grp_cen	-1.0		1.0		-1.0	-1.9+	0.7	1.5+	0.3
	(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.7)
grp_crg	0.3		2.7*	3.0**	-2.0	-2.5	0.8		-1.2
	(0.8)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.5)		(0.2)
has_greenbelt	-0.4		-0.1		0.2		-0.9		0.4
	(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.2)		(0.4)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	120.5	97.6	124.3	104.0	117.6	93.2	110.2	75.3	176.3	150.6
BIC	187.4	128.3	191.2	137.5	184.5	118.3	177.1	94.8	243.2	161.8
Log.Lik.	-36.266	-37.821	-38.152	-40.021	-34.779	-37.600	-31.109	-30.655	-64.139	-71.305
RMSE	0.30	0.31	0.31	0.32	0.29	0.31	0.26	0.28	0.43	0.45
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Round 4

	Badenoch standard	Badenoch stepwise	Jenrick standard	Jenrick stepwise	Cleverly standard	Cleverly stepwise	Unknown standard	Unknown stepwise
(Intercept)	-3.7	-7.0***	-7.8	-1.1**	0.3	-1.3***	0.8	1.2+
	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(1.0)	(<0.1)	(0.9)	(<0.1)
female	0.3		-0.2		-0.7		0.4
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.3)		(0.5)
ethnic	1.9*	2.4**	-1.6	-1.3	1.4		-1.1
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.1)		(0.1)
lgbt	-0.9		-0.5		1.3	1.6	-0.1
	(0.5)		(0.8)		(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.9)
elected	0.7*	0.7*	0.2		-0.3		-0.4+	-0.2+
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(0.2)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)
opp_mp	1.3+	1.1	-1.1	-1.0+	0.2		-0.3
	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.8)		(0.6)
mplr	0.0		0.1		0.0		0.0
	(0.6)		(0.3)		(0.9)		(0.8)
1st_Truss	2.7*	2.9*	-0.1		0.3		-1.1	-1.0*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Sunak	1.7	2.5*	0.4		-0.3		-0.6
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.5)
1st_Badenoch	1.5	2.5+	2.4*	2.1*	-1.8	-2.2	-2.6+	-2.7+
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-0.5		0.2		0.4		0.1
	(0.7)		(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.9)
1st_Tugendhat	0.2		-2.4	-2.5	1.5		0.3
	(0.9)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)		(0.8)
1st_Braverman	-3.3+	-3.9*	0.6		1.4		0.6
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.6)		(0.3)		(0.5)
2nd_Sunak	0.8		-1.4	-0.7	-1.3		0.4
	(0.3)		(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)		(0.5)
2nd_Mordaunt	0.7		-1.6		0.3		-0.1
	(0.7)		(0.3)		(0.8)		(0.9)
2nd_Johnson	-4.6*	-5.4*	3.4*	3.3**	-0.9		-0.6
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(0.5)
grp_onc	0.2		1.5+	0.7	-0.8		-0.5
	(0.8)		(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.3)		(0.3)
grp_csg	1.2		0.9	2.0	-0.4		-0.6
	(0.5)		(0.5)	(0.1)	(0.8)		(0.6)
grp_erg	1.9+	2.0*	-1.5	-1.7+	-0.9		0.0
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.5)		(1.0)
grp_fm	-1.6	-1.6	-3.1*	-3.8*	2.2*	1.9*	0.9
	(0.2)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)
grp_lvl_up	0.1		0.0		-1.8*	-1.7*	0.3
	(0.9)		(1.0)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)
grp_cen	-1.1	-0.7	0.9		-1.3	-1.5	0.6
	(0.2)	(0.4)	(0.3)		(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.3)
grp_crg	0.7		2.8*	2.9**	-2.0		-1.0
	(0.5)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)		(0.2)
has_greenbelt	-0.4		-0.3		-0.1		0.1
	(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.8)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	118.1	95.5	125.6	106.6	122.1	98.1	185.6	157.4
BIC	185.0	128.9	192.5	140.1	189.0	114.8	252.5	168.5
Log.Lik.	-35.069	-35.730	-38.797	-41.306	-37.040	-43.026	-68.789	-74.687
RMSE	0.30	0.30	0.32	0.33	0.30	0.33	0.45	0.47
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Round 5

	Badenoch standard	Badenoch stepwise	Jenrick standard	Jenrick stepwise	Unknown standard	Unknown stepwise
(Intercept)	1.9	-2.3***	-9.0	-3.6**	5.2	0.5+
	(0.7)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)
female	0.3		-0.2		-0.2
	(0.7)		(0.8)		(0.7)
ethnic	1.5+	1.4*	-1.1		-0.2
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)		(0.8)
lgbt	-1.1		-0.6		0.8
	(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.5)
elected	-0.1		0.4	0.4*	-0.2
	(0.7)		(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)
opp_mp	1.8**	1.8**	-1.4+	-1.3*	-0.4
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.5)
mplr	-0.1		0.1		0.0
	(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.5)
1st_Truss	0.7		0.3		-0.6
	(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.4)
1st_Sunak	0.0		0.6		-0.6
	(1.0)		(0.6)		(0.4)
1st_Badenoch	0.9	1.3	2.0+	2.1*	-3.3*	-3.6*
	(0.4)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-0.2		0.0		0.1
	(0.8)		(1.0)		(0.9)
1st_Tugendhat	0.7		-2.3	-2.1	1.2	1.7
	(0.6)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.1)
1st_Braverman	-1.8	-1.2	1.5	2.2*	-0.3
	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.8)
2nd_Sunak	0.5		-0.8		-0.1
	(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.8)
2nd_Mordaunt	0.9		-1.0		0.2
	(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.9)
2nd_Johnson	-4.4*	-2.7+	3.2*	3.3**	-0.5
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.6)
grp_onc	-0.4		1.8*	1.6*	-0.6	-0.7+
	(0.5)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)
grp_csg	0.6		1.0		-0.6
	(0.7)		(0.4)		(0.5)
grp_erg	1.5		-1.2		-0.1
	(0.1)		(0.3)		(0.9)
grp_fm	-1.0		-3.4*	-3.2*	2.0*	1.6*
	(0.3)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	-0.4		0.1		-0.1
	(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.8)
grp_cen	0.1		0.6		-0.2
	(0.9)		(0.5)		(0.7)
grp_crg	-0.8		2.7*	2.6**	-0.9	-1.4+
	(0.4)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	-0.5		-0.2		0.2
	(0.4)		(0.7)		(0.7)
Num.Obs.	120	120	120	120	120	120
AIC	144.2	117.3	129.5	108.9	180.5	151.7
BIC	211.1	134.1	196.4	136.8	247.4	168.5
Log.Lik.	-48.086	-52.669	-40.763	-44.441	-66.240	-69.865
RMSE	0.36	0.38	0.33	0.34	0.43	0.45
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

By Candidate (old MPs)

Regression Output for Badenoch among old MPs

	r1 Badenoch standard pre-2024	r1 Badenoch stepwise pre-2024	r2 Badenoch standard pre-2024	r2 Badenoch stepwise pre-2024	r3 Badenoch standard pre-2024	r3 Badenoch stepwise pre-2024	r4 Badenoch standard pre-2024	r4 Badenoch stepwise pre-2024	r5 Badenoch standard pre-2024	r5 Badenoch stepwise pre-2024
(Intercept)	-6.9	-4.8***	-5.0	-3.0***	-2.4	-2.4***	-1.9	-3.3**	1.1	-2.4***
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.7)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)	(0.8)	(<0.1)
female	0.6		0.9		0.9		0.8		0.8	1.2+
	(0.5)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)	(<0.1)
ethnic	0.6		0.3		1.0		1.6	2.0*	1.1
	(0.5)		(0.8)		(0.3)		(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)
lgbt	-0.6		-1.0		-0.8		-0.7		-1.0
	(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.5)
elected	0.8+	0.5+	0.7+		0.6+		0.5		-0.2
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)		(<0.1)		(0.1)		(0.6)
opp_mp	1.4	1.5	2.0*	2.0*	1.4+	1.4+	1.5+	1.3+	2.0*	1.8**
	(0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.6)
1st_Truss	1.3		1.1		1.4		1.5	1.0	0.1
	(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.2)		(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.9)
1st_Sunak	0.0		-0.2		0.6		0.7	0.9	-0.4
	(1.0)		(0.9)		(0.6)		(0.5)	(0.4)	(0.7)
1st_Badenoch	1.1	2.5*	0.9	2.6*	1.1	2.3*	1.2	2.5*	1.0
	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.2		-1.8		-0.5		-0.7		-0.4
	(0.4)		(0.2)		(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.7)
1st_Tugendhat	0.5		0.6		0.4		0.3		0.7
	(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.6)
1st_Braverman	-1.9	-1.9	-2.1	-3.1	-2.3	-3.0	-2.8	-3.7+	-2.0
	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)
2nd_Sunak	0.5		0.8		0.8		0.6		0.6
	(0.6)		(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.4)		(0.4)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.1		1.8		0.8		0.9		0.8
	(0.5)		(0.3)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.6)
2nd_Johnson	-3.4	-2.3	-4.3+	-2.6	-3.9+	-2.5	-4.3*	-4.1*	-4.1*	-2.7+
	(0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_onc	0.3		0.2		0.2		0.1		-0.4
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.8)		(0.5)
grp_csg	1.0		1.0		1.0		1.1		0.7
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.6)
grp_erg	1.0		1.6		1.6		1.8+	1.2	1.3
	(0.4)		(0.1)		(0.1)		(<0.1)	(0.1)	(0.2)
grp_fm	-0.9		-1.2		-1.2		-1.3	-0.9	-0.8
	(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.4)
grp_lvl_up	0.2		0.1		0.1		0.2		-0.2
	(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.8)
grp_cen	-0.6		-0.7		-0.9		-0.9		0.1
	(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.9)
grp_crg	-0.3		-0.8		0.1		0.4		-0.8
	(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.4)
has_greenbelt	-0.2		-0.4		-0.4		-0.4		-0.5
	(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.4)
Num.Obs.	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94
AIC	101.0	69.1	106.3	77.6	112.7	85.8	111.2	87.4	131.9	102.9
BIC	162.0	84.4	167.4	90.3	173.7	98.5	172.2	112.8	192.9	113.0
Log.Lik.	-26.489	-28.552	-29.158	-33.807	-32.334	-37.911	-31.597	-33.699	-41.927	-47.428
RMSE	0.28	0.30	0.30	0.33	0.33	0.36	0.32	0.33	0.38	0.41
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Jenrick among old MPs

	r1 Jenrick standard pre-2024	r1 Jenrick stepwise pre-2024	r2 Jenrick standard pre-2024	r2 Jenrick stepwise pre-2024	r3 Jenrick standard pre-2024	r3 Jenrick stepwise pre-2024	r4 Jenrick standard pre-2024	r4 Jenrick stepwise pre-2024	r5 Jenrick standard pre-2024	r5 Jenrick stepwise pre-2024
(Intercept)	-9.0	-3.2**	-6.4	-2.5+	-6.0	-2.4+	-6.0	-2.4+	-7.2	-3.5**
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)
female	-0.8		0.0		0.4		0.4		0.5
	(0.5)		(1.0)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.6)
ethnic	-1.5	-3.0	-1.7	-2.6	-1.9	-2.9	-1.9	-2.9	-1.4
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.3)
lgbt	-0.3		-0.3		0.0		0.0		-0.1
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(1.0)		(1.0)		(0.9)
elected	0.5	0.6+	0.5	0.7+	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.7+	0.6*
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
opp_mp	-0.8		-0.9	-1.2	-1.2		-1.2		-1.7*	-1.4+
	(0.3)		(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.1)		(0.1)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)
mplr	0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1		0.1
	(0.3)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.5)
1st_Truss	-0.2		-0.2		0.1		0.1		0.5
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.6)
1st_Sunak	0.0		0.3		0.6		0.6		0.9
	(1.0)		(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.5)
1st_Badenoch	1.9		2.0	2.3+	2.1+	1.9+	2.1+	1.9+	1.8	1.7+
	(0.1)		(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-2.0	-1.4	-2.0	-2.6*	-1.8	-2.1*	-1.8	-2.1*	-2.0	-1.4
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)
1st_Tugendhat	-1.6	-2.0	-1.8	-2.8	-1.8	-2.2	-1.8	-2.2	-2.1	-2.7
	(0.4)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)
1st_Braverman	-0.4		-0.4		0.3		0.3		1.0
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.4)
2nd_Sunak	-0.8		-1.3	-1.9*	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-1.2	-0.9
	(0.4)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.3)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.0		0.4		0.3		0.3		0.7
	(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.7)
2nd_Johnson	3.0*	3.6**	3.3*	4.9*	3.1*	3.0*	3.1*	3.0*	3.3*	2.5*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_onc	1.6+		1.7*	2.4*	1.3	1.3+	1.3	1.3+	1.7*	1.3+
	(<0.1)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_csg	1.2	2.5+	1.3		0.9		0.9		1.2	2.1+
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.4)	(<0.1)
grp_erg	-0.5		-0.8	-1.5	-0.9		-0.9		-0.8
	(0.7)		(0.5)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.5)
grp_fm	-2.2+	-4.5*	-2.9+	-4.2*	-2.7+	-3.0*	-2.7+	-3.0*	-3.5*	-4.2*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.0		-0.1		-0.3		-0.3		-0.2
	(1.0)		(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.8)
grp_cen	0.8		0.6		0.7		0.7		0.2
	(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.8)
grp_crg	2.7*	2.5**	3.2*	4.2**	3.1**	2.8**	3.1**	2.8**	3.4**	3.0**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	-1.6+	-1.4+	-1.9*	-2.2*	-1.4+	-1.6*	-1.4+	-1.6*	-1.3+
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
Num.Obs.	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94
AIC	89.3	66.8	90.0	68.7	96.2	76.7	96.2	76.7	98.1	80.9
BIC	150.3	92.2	151.1	104.3	157.2	107.2	157.2	107.2	159.2	108.9
Log.Lik.	-20.649	-23.378	-21.016	-20.343	-24.080	-26.327	-24.080	-26.327	-25.072	-29.458
RMSE	0.24	0.27	0.25	0.25	0.27	0.28	0.27	0.28	0.28	0.31
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Cleverly among old MPs

	r1 Cleverly standard pre-2024	r1 Cleverly stepwise pre-2024	r2 Cleverly standard pre-2024	r2 Cleverly stepwise pre-2024	r3 Cleverly standard pre-2024	r3 Cleverly stepwise pre-2024	r4 Cleverly standard pre-2024	r4 Cleverly stepwise pre-2024
(Intercept)	0.1	-7.7**	-5.5	-6.9**	0.3	0.1	2.6	0.2
	(1.0)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(1.0)	(0.8)	(0.7)	(0.8)
female	-1.0		-1.1		-1.6	-1.2	-1.1	-0.8
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.4)
ethnic	1.1		0.8		2.0+	2.8*	1.8	2.4*
	(0.3)		(0.5)		(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
lgbt	1.9	2.3	1.4		1.1		1.0
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.5)
elected	0.4	2.0*	0.4	2.0**	0.1		0.1
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.8)		(0.7)
opp_mp	-1.0	-2.6+	-0.4		-0.4		-0.3
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0
	(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.7)
1st_Truss	-0.2		0.1		0.6		0.0
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.6)		(1.0)
1st_Sunak	-0.6		-0.3		0.1		-0.6
	(0.6)		(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.6)
1st_Badenoch	-0.9	-3.8	-1.2	-5.2*	-1.8	-1.7	-2.2	-2.6
	(0.6)	(0.1)	(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.2)
1st_Mordaunt	0.5		0.0	-3.9	1.4		1.1
	(0.8)		(1.0)	(0.1)	(0.3)		(0.4)
1st_Tugendhat	0.4	-0.9	0.7		1.0		0.5
	(0.8)	(0.6)	(0.7)		(0.5)		(0.7)
1st_Braverman	0.1	-5.2	0.8		1.3		1.2
	(0.9)	(0.1)	(0.6)		(0.4)		(0.4)
2nd_Sunak	-0.4		-0.8	-1.9+	-1.1	-1.9*	-1.1	-2.0*
	(0.7)		(0.4)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)
2nd_Mordaunt	-1.1		-1.0		-1.1		-0.5
	(0.5)		(0.6)		(0.5)		(0.8)
2nd_Johnson	0.1		-0.1		-0.5		-0.5
	(1.0)		(1.0)		(0.7)		(0.7)
grp_onc	0.0	1.3	-0.6		-0.5		-0.5
	(1.0)	(0.3)	(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.5)
grp_csg	-0.3		-0.3		-0.2		-0.5
	(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.8)
grp_erg	0.8	4.6*	0.2		-0.3	-1.9	-0.3	-2.0
	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.9)		(0.8)	(0.1)	(0.8)	(0.1)
grp_fm	0.3		0.5		1.1		1.1	1.4
	(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.3)		(0.3)	(0.2)
grp_lvl_up	-1.4	-6.2*	-1.1	-3.6*	-1.5+	-1.5+	-1.6+	-2.0*
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_cen	-0.7	-5.1+	-1.3	-5.8**	-1.1	-1.8+	-1.5	-2.1*
	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_crg	-0.4		-2.1	-5.2+	-1.8	-1.9	-1.7	-1.8
	(0.8)		(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.3)
has_greenbelt	0.3		0.8	1.2	0.6		0.5
	(0.7)		(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.5)
Num.Obs.	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94
AIC	80.9	41.9	81.5	41.0	93.4	65.5	95.6	67.3
BIC	141.9	69.9	142.6	63.9	154.4	88.3	156.7	92.8
Log.Lik.	-16.435	-9.966	-16.769	-11.516	-22.694	-23.727	-23.820	-23.660
RMSE	0.20	0.17	0.20	0.19	0.26	0.28	0.27	0.28
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Tugendhat among old MPs

	r1 Tugendhat standard pre-2024	r1 Tugendhat stepwise pre-2024	r2 Tugendhat standard pre-2024	r2 Tugendhat stepwise pre-2024	r3 Tugendhat standard pre-2024	r3 Tugendhat stepwise pre-2024
(Intercept)	-1.1	-9.3**	-1.1	-9.3**	-4.5	-3.8+
	(0.9)	(<0.1)	(0.9)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)
female	1.8	5.5*	1.8	5.5*	1.6	2.4
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)
ethnic	-0.7		-0.7		-1.1
	(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.4)
lgbt	-0.4		-0.4		-0.2
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.9)
elected	-0.1		-0.1		-0.5	-1.3*
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.2)	(<0.1)
opp_mp	-0.3		-0.3		0.0
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(1.0)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)
1st_Truss	0.9		0.9		0.0
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(1.0)
1st_Sunak	0.5		0.5		0.7	3.0+
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.6)	(<0.1)
1st_Badenoch	0.8		0.8		1.4
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.3)
1st_Mordaunt	1.2		1.2		1.2
	(0.3)		(0.3)		(0.3)
1st_Tugendhat	2.6+	5.4*	2.6+	5.4*	2.8+	6.3*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Braverman	1.0		1.0		0.3
	(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.8)
2nd_Sunak	0.7	2.6	0.7	2.6	0.5
	(0.5)	(0.1)	(0.5)	(0.1)	(0.7)
2nd_Mordaunt	-1.2	-4.8	-1.2	-4.8	-2.4	-6.5+
	(0.5)	(0.1)	(0.5)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)
2nd_Johnson	-0.4		-0.4		0.5
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.8)
grp_onc	-0.4		-0.4		-0.3
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.7)
grp_csg	-0.3		-0.3		-0.8
	(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.6)
grp_erg	-0.8	-5.1*	-0.8	-5.1*	-1.6	-4.7*
	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)
grp_fm	1.8	4.9*	1.8	4.9*	1.8	3.3*
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.7	2.8	0.7	2.8	0.8	2.8
	(0.5)	(0.1)	(0.5)	(0.1)	(0.4)	(0.1)
grp_cen	0.4		0.4		1.4	3.4*
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_crg	1.0		1.0		0.2
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.9)
has_greenbelt	-0.8		-0.8		-0.1
	(0.4)		(0.4)		(0.9)
Num.Obs.	94	94	94	94	94	94
AIC	71.5	27.9	71.5	27.9	75.9	35.1
BIC	132.5	48.3	132.5	48.3	136.9	60.5
Log.Lik.	-11.745	-5.961	-11.745	-5.961	-13.951	-7.546
RMSE	0.15	0.12	0.15	0.12	0.18	0.14
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Stride among old MPs

	r1 Stride standard pre-2024	r1 Stride stepwise pre-2024	r2 Stride standard pre-2024	r2 Stride stepwise pre-2024
(Intercept)	-3.1	-2.5	-3.1	-2.5
	(0.6)	(0.7)	(0.6)	(0.7)
female	-0.3	-0.4	-0.3	-0.4
	(0.8)	(0.7)	(0.8)	(0.7)
ethnic	-0.1		-0.1
	(1.0)		(1.0)
lgbt	-0.6	-0.2	-0.6	-0.2
	(0.8)	(0.9)	(0.8)	(0.9)
elected	-0.2	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3
	(0.6)	(0.4)	(0.6)	(0.4)
opp_mp	0.9	1.4	0.9	1.4
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)
mplr	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	(1.0)	(0.9)	(1.0)	(0.9)
1st_Truss	-0.8	-0.4	-0.8	-0.4
	(0.5)	(0.7)	(0.5)	(0.7)
1st_Sunak	-0.2		-0.2
	(0.9)		(0.9)
1st_Badenoch	0.7		0.7
	(0.6)		(0.6)
1st_Mordaunt	2.8*	3.2**	2.8*	3.2**
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Tugendhat	1.4		1.4
	(0.4)		(0.4)
1st_Braverman	1.8	3.4+	1.8	3.4+
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.2)	(<0.1)
2nd_Sunak	1.1	1.6	1.1	1.6
	(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.1)
2nd_Mordaunt	-0.4		-0.4
	(0.8)		(0.8)
2nd_Johnson	1.0		1.0
	(0.5)		(0.5)
grp_onc	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.4
	(0.9)	(0.7)	(0.9)	(0.7)
grp_csg	0.5		0.5
	(0.8)		(0.8)
grp_erg	-0.3	-1.8	-0.3	-1.8
	(0.8)	(0.2)	(0.8)	(0.2)
grp_fm	-0.8	-1.3	-0.8	-1.3
	(0.5)	(0.4)	(0.5)	(0.4)
grp_lvl_up	-0.5	-1.1	-0.5	-1.1
	(0.5)	(0.3)	(0.5)	(0.3)
grp_cen	-1.0	-1.5	-1.0	-1.5
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.3)	(0.2)
grp_crg	-1.3		-1.3
	(0.4)		(0.4)
has_greenbelt	0.9	1.0	0.9	1.0
	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)	(0.3)
Num.Obs.	94	94	94	94
AIC	86.3	63.4	86.3	63.4
BIC	147.3	104.1	147.3	104.1
Log.Lik.	-19.148	-15.712	-19.148	-15.712
RMSE	0.23	0.21	0.23	0.21
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Patel among old MPs

	r1 Patel standard pre-2024	r1 Patel stepwise pre-2024
(Intercept)	-4.6	10.9
	(0.6)	(0.3)
female	0.5	0.3
	(0.7)	(0.7)
ethnic	0.6	1.5
	(0.6)	(0.2)
lgbt	1.3
	(0.5)
elected	-0.4
	(0.4)
opp_mp	0.4
	(0.7)
mplr	0.1	-0.2
	(0.6)	(0.3)
1st_Truss	0.3
	(0.8)
1st_Sunak	-0.4	-2.2
	(0.8)	(0.1)
1st_Badenoch	-0.9	-4.3
	(0.6)	(0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.2	-2.2
	(0.5)	(0.2)
1st_Tugendhat	-0.3	-2.0
	(0.9)	(0.3)
1st_Braverman	0.6
	(0.7)
2nd_Sunak	-1.8	-2.7+
	(0.1)	(<0.1)
2nd_Mordaunt	0.4
	(0.8)
2nd_Johnson	0.0
	(1.0)
grp_onc	-0.7
	(0.4)
grp_csg	-0.8
	(0.6)
grp_erg	-0.6	-0.9
	(0.6)	(0.4)
grp_fm	1.7	1.5
	(0.2)	(0.2)
grp_lvl_up	0.0
	(1.0)
grp_cen	-0.3	-2.2
	(0.8)	(0.1)
grp_crg	-1.8
	(0.2)
has_greenbelt	0.7	1.2
	(0.4)	(0.2)
Num.Obs.	94	94
AIC	75.3	47.4
BIC	136.3	80.4
Log.Lik.	-13.645	-10.690
RMSE	0.18	0.17
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Regression Output for Unknown among old MPs

	r1 Unknown standard pre-2024	r1 Unknown stepwise pre-2024	r2 Unknown standard pre-2024	r2 Unknown stepwise pre-2024	r3 Unknown standard pre-2024	r3 Unknown stepwise pre-2024	r4 Unknown standard pre-2024	r4 Unknown stepwise pre-2024	r5 Unknown standard pre-2024	r5 Unknown stepwise pre-2024
(Intercept)	5.4	1.4+	4.8	1.6*	2.4	2.2*	0.0	1.1	4.8	0.4
	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.3)	(<0.1)	(0.6)	(<0.1)	(1.0)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.3)
female	0.1		-0.6		-0.8		-0.3		-1.3+	-0.9
	(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.3)		(0.7)		(<0.1)	(0.1)
ethnic	0.0		0.7		-0.1		-0.9		0.3
	(1.0)		(0.4)		(0.9)		(0.3)		(0.7)
lgbt	0.4		1.1		0.6		0.2		0.8
	(0.7)		(0.4)		(0.6)		(0.9)		(0.5)
elected	-0.4	-0.4+	-0.5+	-0.5*	-0.4	-0.4*	-0.5+	-0.3	-0.1
	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(0.6)
opp_mp	-0.2		-0.8		-0.4		-0.4		-0.7
	(0.7)		(0.2)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.2)
mplr	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0
	(0.4)		(0.6)		(1.0)		(0.6)		(0.5)
1st_Truss	-0.5		-0.6		-1.4	-1.6*	-0.9		-0.3
	(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.3)		(0.7)
1st_Sunak	0.2		-0.2		-1.0	-0.9	-0.3		-0.4
	(0.8)		(0.8)		(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.7)		(0.7)
1st_Badenoch	-2.6+	-3.2*	-2.6+	-2.9+	-2.8+	-2.7+	-2.5+	-3.0+	-3.1+	-3.3*
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
1st_Mordaunt	-1.1	-1.2	-0.2		-0.1		0.8		1.2	1.0
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.8)		(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.3)	(0.2)
1st_Tugendhat	-1.1	-1.4	-1.3		-1.0		1.0		1.2	1.9
	(0.4)	(0.2)	(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.4)		(0.3)	(0.1)
1st_Braverman	0.3		0.7		0.7		0.9		0.0
	(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.4)		(1.0)
2nd_Sunak	0.1		-0.3		0.2		0.4		-0.2
	(0.9)		(0.7)		(0.8)		(0.5)		(0.8)
2nd_Mordaunt	1.7	1.9+	0.9		0.8		-0.4		-0.5
	(0.2)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.7)		(0.7)
2nd_Johnson	-2.4+	-2.9**	-1.5	-1.4+	-0.9		-0.7	-1.4+	-0.5
	(<0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(0.4)		(0.5)	(<0.1)	(0.6)
grp_onc	-0.3		-0.7		-0.7		-0.6		-0.6	-0.7
	(0.5)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.3)		(0.2)	(0.1)
grp_csg	0.5		-0.4		-0.5		-0.5		-0.7
	(0.7)		(0.7)		(0.6)		(0.6)		(0.5)
grp_erg	0.9	0.8	0.5		0.6		0.0		0.1
	(0.3)	(0.2)	(0.5)		(0.5)		(1.0)		(0.9)
grp_fm	0.3		0.8	1.1	0.5		1.1	1.1	2.0*	1.7*
	(0.7)		(0.3)	(0.1)	(0.5)		(0.2)	(0.1)	(<0.1)	(<0.1)
grp_lvl_up	0.0		0.1		0.1		0.3		-0.4
	(1.0)		(0.9)		(0.9)		(0.6)		(0.5)
grp_cen	0.1		0.5		0.3		0.9		-0.1
	(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.6)		(0.2)		(0.9)
grp_crg	-0.2		-0.4		-1.1		-1.2		-1.1	-1.5*
	(0.8)		(0.6)		(0.2)		(0.2)		(0.2)	(<0.1)
has_greenbelt	-0.1		0.4		0.3		0.4		0.6
	(0.9)		(0.4)		(0.5)		(0.5)		(0.3)
Num.Obs.	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94	94
AIC	144.0	116.3	146.6	122.0	147.7	120.6	149.9	124.4	143.8	118.3
BIC	205.1	136.7	207.6	134.7	208.7	133.4	211.0	137.1	204.9	138.6
Log.Lik.	-48.020	-50.165	-49.301	-55.981	-49.834	-55.321	-50.964	-57.200	-47.913	-51.143
RMSE	0.41	0.42	0.42	0.46	0.42	0.45	0.43	0.46	0.41	0.43
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001