New variables distribuitions by year (SES and NSE is the same thing)
Summary satistics of cohorts gains
| COHORT | mean_gain_math | mean_gain_leitura | avg_math_9_grade | avg_math_5_grade | sd_math_9_grade | avg_leitura_9_grade | avg_leitura_5_grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-2011 | 58.58020 | 67.29065 | 237.8804 | 179.3002 | 24.98941 | 228.7605 | 161.4699 |
| 2009-2013 | 46.30225 | 60.02076 | 237.0957 | 190.7935 | 23.89820 | 229.9514 | 169.9306 |
| 2011-2015 | 49.97688 | 63.05933 | 243.3466 | 193.3698 | 20.33981 | 237.6887 | 174.6293 |
| 2013-2017 | 47.21102 | 63.60072 | 241.7565 | 194.5455 | 24.05005 | 241.2981 | 177.6974 |
Regression analysis - Reading
| Dependent variable: | ||||||
| base_formula | ||||||
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| LEITURA_5TH_GRADE | 0.243*** | 0.235*** | 0.235*** | 0.235*** | 0.235*** | 0.174*** |
| (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
| COHORT2009-2013 | -0.072*** | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| (0.018) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.019) | |
| COHORT2011-2015 | 0.196*** | 0.264*** | 0.264*** | 0.263*** | 0.262*** | 0.276*** |
| (0.018) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | |
| COHORT2013-2017 | 0.311*** | 0.381*** | 0.385*** | 0.381*** | 0.381*** | 0.412*** |
| (0.018) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | |
| RACA_PRETO | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.018 | 0.019 | 0.019 | -0.024 |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | |
| NSE_AVG | 0.235*** | 0.212*** | 0.213*** | 0.212*** | 0.214*** | 0.293*** |
| (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.015) | |
| SEXO_M | -0.092*** | -0.084*** | -0.084*** | -0.084*** | -0.084*** | -0.084*** |
| (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.006) | |
| ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 | 0.130* | 0.134* | 0.134* | 0.136* | -0.195*** | |
| (0.053) | (0.053) | (0.053) | (0.053) | (0.057) | ||
| afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.003*** | |
| (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.001) | ||
| NUM_SCHOOLS | -0.004 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| proportion_estadual | -0.002 | -0.005 | -0.004 | -0.004 | -0.046*** | |
| (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.009) | ||
| avg_index_violence | -0.052*** | -0.053*** | -0.053*** | -0.053*** | -0.043*** | |
| (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | ||
| DROP_OUT_RATE | 0.055*** | 0.055*** | 0.055*** | 0.054*** | 0.080*** | |
| (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | ||
| kl_raca | -0.017** | |||||
| (0.006) | ||||||
| kl_NSE | -0.010 | |||||
| (0.006) | ||||||
| kl_raca_ses | -0.012 | 0.0004 | ||||
| (0.006) | (0.006) | |||||
| UfAC | -0.087 | |||||
| (0.099) | ||||||
| UfAL | -0.639*** | |||||
| (0.058) | ||||||
| UfAM | -0.519*** | |||||
| (0.065) | ||||||
| UfAP | -0.801*** | |||||
| (0.114) | ||||||
| UfBA | -0.441*** | |||||
| (0.044) | ||||||
| UfCE | 0.008 | |||||
| (0.049) | ||||||
| UfDF | -0.446 | |||||
| (0.440) | ||||||
| UfES | -0.146* | |||||
| (0.058) | ||||||
| UfMA | -0.566*** | |||||
| (0.050) | ||||||
| UfMG | -0.004 | |||||
| (0.033) | ||||||
| UfMS | -0.239*** | |||||
| (0.058) | ||||||
| UfMT | -0.598*** | |||||
| (0.047) | ||||||
| UfPA | -0.543*** | |||||
| (0.052) | ||||||
| UfPB | -0.600*** | |||||
| (0.045) | ||||||
| UfPE | -0.451*** | |||||
| (0.047) | ||||||
| UfPI | -0.397*** | |||||
| (0.047) | ||||||
| UfPR | -0.613*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| UfRJ | -0.419*** | |||||
| (0.056) | ||||||
| UfRN | -0.568*** | |||||
| (0.048) | ||||||
| UfRO | -0.245*** | |||||
| (0.068) | ||||||
| UfRR | -0.581*** | |||||
| (0.119) | ||||||
| UfRS | -0.616*** | |||||
| (0.039) | ||||||
| UfSC | -0.672*** | |||||
| (0.041) | ||||||
| UfSE | -0.527*** | |||||
| (0.062) | ||||||
| UfSP | -0.527*** | |||||
| (0.034) | ||||||
| UfTO | -0.281*** | |||||
| (0.048) | ||||||
| COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO | -0.010 | -0.004 | -0.004 | -0.004 | -0.004 | -0.008 |
| (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.018) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO | -0.044* | -0.038* | -0.038* | -0.038* | -0.038* | -0.036* |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO | -0.037* | -0.030 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.025 |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | |
| COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG | -0.053** | -0.049** | -0.048** | -0.048** | -0.048** | -0.039* |
| (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG | -0.050** | -0.045* | -0.044* | -0.044* | -0.045* | -0.037* |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.017) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG | 0.0005 | 0.008 | 0.007 | 0.008 | 0.007 | 0.013 |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.017) | |
| Constant | -0.105*** | -0.076*** | -0.079*** | -0.077*** | -0.078*** | 0.326*** |
| (0.013) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.034) | |
| Observations | 21,554 | 21,554 | 21,554 | 21,554 | 21,554 | 21,500 |
| R2 | 0.183 | 0.194 | 0.194 | 0.194 | 0.194 | 0.242 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.183 | 0.194 | 0.194 | 0.194 | 0.194 | 0.241 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.904 (df = 21540) | 0.898 (df = 21534) | 0.898 (df = 21533) | 0.898 (df = 21533) | 0.898 (df = 21533) | 0.873 (df = 21453) |
| F Statistic | 371.732*** (df = 13; 21540) | 273.183*** (df = 19; 21534) | 259.944*** (df = 20; 21533) | 259.660*** (df = 20; 21533) | 259.733*** (df = 20; 21533) | 149.076*** (df = 46; 21453) |
| Note: | p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001 | |||||
Regression analysis - Math
| Dependent variable: | ||||||
| base_formula | ||||||
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE | 0.262*** | 0.249*** | 0.247*** | 0.248*** | 0.248*** | 0.190*** |
| (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
| COHORT2009-2013 | -0.191*** | -0.112*** | -0.110*** | -0.113*** | -0.113*** | -0.116*** |
| (0.018) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.019) | |
| COHORT2011-2015 | 0.047** | 0.116*** | 0.117*** | 0.114*** | 0.114*** | 0.121*** |
| (0.018) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | |
| COHORT2013-2017 | -0.036* | 0.031 | 0.040* | 0.031 | 0.031 | 0.051** |
| (0.018) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.020) | |
| RACA_PRETO | -0.026 | -0.023 | -0.027 | -0.023 | -0.023 | -0.075*** |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | |
| NSE_AVG | 0.268*** | 0.239*** | 0.240*** | 0.239*** | 0.241*** | 0.325*** |
| (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.015) | |
| SEXO_M | -0.046*** | -0.037*** | -0.038*** | -0.038*** | -0.037*** | -0.031*** |
| (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.006) | |
| ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 | 0.256*** | 0.264*** | 0.261*** | 0.263*** | -0.028 | |
| (0.054) | (0.054) | (0.054) | (0.054) | (0.057) | ||
| afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 | -0.008*** | -0.008*** | -0.008*** | -0.008*** | -0.005*** | |
| (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.001) | ||
| NUM_SCHOOLS | -0.017** | -0.013* | -0.015* | -0.015* | -0.014* | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| proportion_estadual | -0.007 | -0.013 | -0.010 | -0.009 | -0.058*** | |
| (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.009) | ||
| avg_index_violence | -0.053*** | -0.055*** | -0.053*** | -0.053*** | -0.041*** | |
| (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | ||
| DROP_OUT_RATE | 0.053*** | 0.053*** | 0.053*** | 0.053*** | 0.078*** | |
| (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | ||
| kl_raca | -0.035*** | |||||
| (0.006) | ||||||
| kl_NSE | -0.014* | |||||
| (0.007) | ||||||
| kl_raca_ses | -0.014* | -0.001 | ||||
| (0.006) | (0.006) | |||||
| UfAC | -0.056 | |||||
| (0.100) | ||||||
| UfAL | -0.529*** | |||||
| (0.058) | ||||||
| UfAM | -0.584*** | |||||
| (0.065) | ||||||
| UfAP | -0.814*** | |||||
| (0.114) | ||||||
| UfBA | -0.372*** | |||||
| (0.044) | ||||||
| UfCE | 0.010 | |||||
| (0.049) | ||||||
| UfDF | -0.289 | |||||
| (0.442) | ||||||
| UfES | -0.105 | |||||
| (0.058) | ||||||
| UfMA | -0.682*** | |||||
| (0.050) | ||||||
| UfMG | 0.085** | |||||
| (0.033) | ||||||
| UfMS | -0.235*** | |||||
| (0.058) | ||||||
| UfMT | -0.554*** | |||||
| (0.047) | ||||||
| UfPA | -0.619*** | |||||
| (0.052) | ||||||
| UfPB | -0.526*** | |||||
| (0.046) | ||||||
| UfPE | -0.359*** | |||||
| (0.047) | ||||||
| UfPI | -0.275*** | |||||
| (0.047) | ||||||
| UfPR | -0.532*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| UfRJ | -0.383*** | |||||
| (0.056) | ||||||
| UfRN | -0.566*** | |||||
| (0.048) | ||||||
| UfRO | -0.074 | |||||
| (0.068) | ||||||
| UfRR | -0.563*** | |||||
| (0.119) | ||||||
| UfRS | -0.576*** | |||||
| (0.039) | ||||||
| UfSC | -0.586*** | |||||
| (0.041) | ||||||
| UfSE | -0.332*** | |||||
| (0.062) | ||||||
| UfSP | -0.519*** | |||||
| (0.034) | ||||||
| UfTO | -0.217*** | |||||
| (0.048) | ||||||
| COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO | 0.007 | 0.012 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 0.005 |
| (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.018) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO | -0.031 | -0.026 | -0.026 | -0.026 | -0.026 | -0.026 |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO | -0.028 | -0.023 | -0.024 | -0.023 | -0.023 | -0.018 |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | |
| COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG | -0.075*** | -0.069*** | -0.067*** | -0.068*** | -0.069*** | -0.055** |
| (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG | -0.115*** | -0.106*** | -0.104*** | -0.105*** | -0.106*** | -0.095*** |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.017) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG | -0.055** | -0.043* | -0.043* | -0.042* | -0.044* | -0.035* |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.017) | |
| Constant | 0.051*** | 0.084*** | 0.077*** | 0.083*** | 0.082*** | 0.422*** |
| (0.013) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.034) | |
| Observations | 21,554 | 21,554 | 21,554 | 21,554 | 21,554 | 21,500 |
| R2 | 0.169 | 0.185 | 0.186 | 0.185 | 0.185 | 0.238 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.168 | 0.184 | 0.185 | 0.184 | 0.184 | 0.236 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.912 (df = 21540) | 0.903 (df = 21534) | 0.903 (df = 21533) | 0.903 (df = 21533) | 0.903 (df = 21533) | 0.875 (df = 21453) |
| F Statistic | 336.666*** (df = 13; 21540) | 256.746*** (df = 19; 21534) | 245.788*** (df = 20; 21533) | 244.178*** (df = 20; 21533) | 244.209*** (df = 20; 21533) | 145.514*** (df = 46; 21453) |
| Note: | p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001 | |||||
Summary satistics of cohorts gains
| COHORT | mean_gain_math | mean_gain_leitura | avg_math_9_grade | avg_math_5_grade | sd_math_9_grade | avg_leitura_9_grade | avg_leitura_5_grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-2011 | 54.32974 | 63.79266 | 243.0459 | 188.7162 | 19.18105 | 234.3181 | 170.5255 |
| 2009-2013 | 42.55312 | 57.90073 | 243.0745 | 200.5214 | 18.68563 | 236.7222 | 178.8215 |
| 2011-2015 | 43.83649 | 59.54431 | 248.7159 | 204.8794 | 16.31649 | 244.3450 | 184.8007 |
| 2013-2017 | 41.84401 | 59.73081 | 249.5612 | 207.7172 | 18.49423 | 249.9289 | 190.1980 |
Regression analysis - Reading
| Dependent variable: | ||||||
| base_formula | ||||||
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| LEITURA_5TH_GRADE | 0.519*** | 0.525*** | 0.525*** | 0.525*** | 0.524*** | 0.403*** |
| (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
| COHORT2009-2013 | -0.111*** | -0.024 | -0.024 | -0.024 | -0.025 | -0.003 |
| (0.014) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |
| COHORT2011-2015 | 0.168*** | 0.248*** | 0.248*** | 0.247*** | 0.247*** | 0.304*** |
| (0.014) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.015) | |
| COHORT2013-2017 | 0.347*** | 0.432*** | 0.430*** | 0.432*** | 0.433*** | 0.531*** |
| (0.015) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | |
| RACA_PRETO | -0.022* | -0.024* | -0.023* | -0.024* | -0.024* | -0.064*** |
| (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | |
| NSE_AVG | 0.275*** | 0.291*** | 0.291*** | 0.291*** | 0.294*** | 0.400*** |
| (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.012) | |
| SEXO_M | -0.117*** | -0.095*** | -0.095*** | -0.095*** | -0.095*** | -0.098*** |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
| ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 | 0.183*** | 0.181*** | 0.187*** | 0.190*** | -0.106* | |
| (0.041) | (0.041) | (0.041) | (0.041) | (0.043) | ||
| afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 | -0.006*** | -0.006*** | -0.006*** | -0.006*** | -0.003*** | |
| (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | ||
| NUM_SCHOOLS | -0.004 | -0.005 | -0.003 | -0.002 | -0.003 | |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | ||
| proportion_estadual | -0.041*** | -0.040*** | -0.042*** | -0.043*** | -0.065*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.007) | ||
| avg_index_violence | -0.071*** | -0.071*** | -0.072*** | -0.072*** | -0.065*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.005) | ||
| DROP_OUT_RATE | 0.101*** | 0.101*** | 0.101*** | 0.101*** | 0.117*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| kl_raca | 0.006 | |||||
| (0.005) | ||||||
| kl_NSE | -0.009 | |||||
| (0.005) | ||||||
| kl_raca_ses | -0.013** | -0.003 | ||||
| (0.005) | (0.005) | |||||
| UfAC | -0.172* | |||||
| (0.075) | ||||||
| UfAL | -0.646*** | |||||
| (0.044) | ||||||
| UfAM | -0.494*** | |||||
| (0.048) | ||||||
| UfAP | -1.083*** | |||||
| (0.085) | ||||||
| UfBA | -0.511*** | |||||
| (0.033) | ||||||
| UfCE | 0.135*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| UfDF | -0.724* | |||||
| (0.327) | ||||||
| UfES | -0.310*** | |||||
| (0.043) | ||||||
| UfMA | -0.706*** | |||||
| (0.038) | ||||||
| UfMG | -0.075** | |||||
| (0.025) | ||||||
| UfMS | -0.321*** | |||||
| (0.043) | ||||||
| UfMT | -0.613*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| UfPA | -0.789*** | |||||
| (0.039) | ||||||
| UfPB | -0.666*** | |||||
| (0.034) | ||||||
| UfPE | -0.413*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| UfPI | -0.477*** | |||||
| (0.036) | ||||||
| UfPR | -0.711*** | |||||
| (0.028) | ||||||
| UfRJ | -0.523*** | |||||
| (0.042) | ||||||
| UfRN | -0.552*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| UfRO | -0.213*** | |||||
| (0.050) | ||||||
| UfRR | -0.924*** | |||||
| (0.089) | ||||||
| UfRS | -0.638*** | |||||
| (0.029) | ||||||
| UfSC | -0.609*** | |||||
| (0.031) | ||||||
| UfSE | -0.559*** | |||||
| (0.047) | ||||||
| UfSP | -0.633*** | |||||
| (0.026) | ||||||
| UfTO | -0.391*** | |||||
| (0.036) | ||||||
| COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO | -0.034* | -0.028 | -0.028 | -0.028 | -0.028 | -0.031* |
| (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.014) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO | -0.050*** | -0.045** | -0.046** | -0.046** | -0.045** | -0.045*** |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO | -0.044** | -0.036* | -0.036* | -0.036* | -0.036** | -0.040** |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG | -0.082*** | -0.077*** | -0.077*** | -0.076*** | -0.076*** | -0.057*** |
| (0.014) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG | -0.100*** | -0.092*** | -0.092*** | -0.091*** | -0.092*** | -0.076*** |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG | -0.124*** | -0.115*** | -0.115*** | -0.115*** | -0.115*** | -0.094*** |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| Constant | -0.093*** | -0.091*** | -0.090*** | -0.092*** | -0.093*** | 0.330*** |
| (0.010) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.025) | |
| Observations | 21,181 | 21,181 | 21,181 | 21,181 | 21,181 | 21,181 |
| R2 | 0.510 | 0.528 | 0.528 | 0.528 | 0.528 | 0.581 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.510 | 0.527 | 0.527 | 0.527 | 0.527 | 0.580 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.700 (df = 21167) | 0.688 (df = 21161) | 0.688 (df = 21160) | 0.688 (df = 21160) | 0.687 (df = 21160) | 0.648 (df = 21134) |
| F Statistic | 1,695.241*** (df = 13; 21167) | 1,244.028*** (df = 19; 21161) | 1,181.931*** (df = 20; 21160) | 1,182.075*** (df = 20; 21160) | 1,182.551*** (df = 20; 21160) | 636.309*** (df = 46; 21134) |
| Note: | p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001 | |||||
Regression analysis - Math
| Dependent variable: | ||||||
| base_formula | ||||||
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE | 0.544*** | 0.544*** | 0.544*** | 0.543*** | 0.542*** | 0.435*** |
| (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
| COHORT2009-2013 | -0.313*** | -0.219*** | -0.219*** | -0.220*** | -0.220*** | -0.202*** |
| (0.015) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.015) | |
| COHORT2011-2015 | -0.100*** | -0.015 | -0.015 | -0.017 | -0.018 | 0.025 |
| (0.015) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.015) | |
| COHORT2013-2017 | -0.114*** | -0.026 | -0.025 | -0.025 | -0.024 | 0.041** |
| (0.015) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.016) | |
| RACA_PRETO | -0.065*** | -0.065*** | -0.065*** | -0.064*** | -0.064*** | -0.127*** |
| (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | |
| NSE_AVG | 0.299*** | 0.315*** | 0.315*** | 0.314*** | 0.318*** | 0.414*** |
| (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.012) | |
| SEXO_M | -0.043*** | -0.021*** | -0.021*** | -0.021*** | -0.021*** | -0.012* |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
| ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 | 0.301*** | 0.302*** | 0.308*** | 0.313*** | 0.006 | |
| (0.042) | (0.042) | (0.042) | (0.042) | (0.044) | ||
| afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 | -0.008*** | -0.008*** | -0.008*** | -0.008*** | -0.004*** | |
| (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0004) | ||
| NUM_SCHOOLS | -0.020*** | -0.019*** | -0.017*** | -0.016** | -0.013** | |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | ||
| proportion_estadual | -0.054*** | -0.054*** | -0.057*** | -0.057*** | -0.086*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.007) | ||
| avg_index_violence | -0.075*** | -0.076*** | -0.076*** | -0.076*** | -0.063*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| DROP_OUT_RATE | 0.097*** | 0.097*** | 0.097*** | 0.097*** | 0.111*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| kl_raca | -0.003 | |||||
| (0.005) | ||||||
| kl_NSE | -0.016** | |||||
| (0.005) | ||||||
| kl_raca_ses | -0.021*** | -0.013** | ||||
| (0.005) | (0.005) | |||||
| UfAC | -0.139 | |||||
| (0.077) | ||||||
| UfAL | -0.539*** | |||||
| (0.045) | ||||||
| UfAM | -0.674*** | |||||
| (0.049) | ||||||
| UfAP | -1.151*** | |||||
| (0.087) | ||||||
| UfBA | -0.394*** | |||||
| (0.033) | ||||||
| UfCE | 0.092* | |||||
| (0.038) | ||||||
| UfDF | -0.496 | |||||
| (0.333) | ||||||
| UfES | -0.094* | |||||
| (0.044) | ||||||
| UfMA | -0.810*** | |||||
| (0.038) | ||||||
| UfMG | 0.067** | |||||
| (0.025) | ||||||
| UfMS | -0.327*** | |||||
| (0.044) | ||||||
| UfMT | -0.549*** | |||||
| (0.036) | ||||||
| UfPA | -0.840*** | |||||
| (0.040) | ||||||
| UfPB | -0.635*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| UfPE | -0.312*** | |||||
| (0.036) | ||||||
| UfPI | -0.324*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| UfPR | -0.671*** | |||||
| (0.028) | ||||||
| UfRJ | -0.409*** | |||||
| (0.042) | ||||||
| UfRN | -0.531*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| UfRO | -0.100 | |||||
| (0.051) | ||||||
| UfRR | -0.819*** | |||||
| (0.091) | ||||||
| UfRS | -0.539*** | |||||
| (0.030) | ||||||
| UfSC | -0.509*** | |||||
| (0.031) | ||||||
| UfSE | -0.335*** | |||||
| (0.047) | ||||||
| UfSP | -0.663*** | |||||
| (0.026) | ||||||
| UfTO | -0.284*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | -0.001 |
| (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.014) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO | -0.008 | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.007 |
| (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.014) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO | -0.020 | -0.014 | -0.014 | -0.014 | -0.015 | -0.016 |
| (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.014) | |
| COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG | -0.107*** | -0.100*** | -0.100*** | -0.100*** | -0.100*** | -0.077*** |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG | -0.159*** | -0.146*** | -0.146*** | -0.145*** | -0.146*** | -0.127*** |
| (0.015) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG | -0.147*** | -0.133*** | -0.132*** | -0.131*** | -0.132*** | -0.111*** |
| (0.015) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| Constant | 0.139*** | 0.140*** | 0.139*** | 0.137*** | 0.136*** | 0.497*** |
| (0.011) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.026) | |
| Observations | 21,181 | 21,181 | 21,181 | 21,181 | 21,181 | 21,181 |
| R2 | 0.473 | 0.495 | 0.495 | 0.495 | 0.496 | 0.565 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.472 | 0.495 | 0.495 | 0.495 | 0.495 | 0.564 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.726 (df = 21167) | 0.711 (df = 21161) | 0.711 (df = 21160) | 0.711 (df = 21160) | 0.711 (df = 21160) | 0.661 (df = 21134) |
| F Statistic | 1,460.251*** (df = 13; 21167) | 1,092.585*** (df = 19; 21161) | 1,037.947*** (df = 20; 21160) | 1,038.889*** (df = 20; 21160) | 1,039.611*** (df = 20; 21160) | 595.761*** (df = 46; 21134) |
| Note: | p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001 | |||||
Summary satistics of cohorts gains
| COHORT | mean_gain_math | mean_gain_leitura | avg_math_9_grade | avg_math_5_grade | sd_math_9_grade | avg_leitura_9_grade | avg_leitura_5_grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-2011 | 57.29921 | 66.94352 | 249.1911 | 191.8919 | 23.85190 | 240.0255 | 173.0820 |
| 2009-2013 | 44.27338 | 60.46607 | 248.7010 | 204.4276 | 23.57677 | 242.7580 | 182.2919 |
| 2011-2015 | 44.48807 | 60.93895 | 254.3192 | 209.8312 | 21.61192 | 250.4281 | 189.4892 |
| 2013-2017 | 44.48920 | 61.72375 | 256.5350 | 212.0458 | 23.43181 | 256.6433 | 194.9196 |
Regression analysis - Reading
| Dependent variable: | ||||||
| base_formula | ||||||
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| LEITURA_5TH_GRADE | 0.545*** | 0.531*** | 0.530*** | 0.531*** | 0.531*** | 0.428*** |
| (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
| COHORT2009-2013 | -0.127*** | -0.055*** | -0.053*** | -0.056*** | -0.056*** | -0.039** |
| (0.013) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | |
| COHORT2011-2015 | 0.058*** | 0.130*** | 0.131*** | 0.128*** | 0.128*** | 0.176*** |
| (0.014) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |
| COHORT2013-2017 | 0.228*** | 0.301*** | 0.307*** | 0.302*** | 0.302*** | 0.383*** |
| (0.014) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |
| RACA_PRETO | -0.002 | -0.002 | -0.006 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.021* |
| (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | |
| NSE_AVG | 0.311*** | 0.298*** | 0.300*** | 0.298*** | 0.300*** | 0.387*** |
| (0.009) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.011) | |
| SEXO_M | -0.076*** | -0.064*** | -0.064*** | -0.064*** | -0.064*** | -0.072*** |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
| ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 | 0.086* | 0.090* | 0.090* | 0.092* | -0.142*** | |
| (0.039) | (0.039) | (0.039) | (0.039) | (0.041) | ||
| afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.003*** | |
| (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0004) | ||
| NUM_SCHOOLS | -0.005 | -0.003 | -0.003 | -0.003 | -0.006 | |
| (0.004) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.004) | ||
| proportion_estadual | -0.013* | -0.015** | -0.015** | -0.015** | -0.035*** | |
| (0.005) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| avg_index_violence | -0.049*** | -0.051*** | -0.050*** | -0.050*** | -0.045*** | |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | ||
| DROP_OUT_RATE | 0.066*** | 0.067*** | 0.066*** | 0.066*** | 0.093*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| kl_raca | -0.018*** | |||||
| (0.005) | ||||||
| kl_NSE | -0.010* | |||||
| (0.005) | ||||||
| kl_raca_ses | -0.010* | 0.001 | ||||
| (0.005) | (0.005) | |||||
| UfAC | -0.228** | |||||
| (0.072) | ||||||
| UfAL | -0.508*** | |||||
| (0.042) | ||||||
| UfAM | -0.428*** | |||||
| (0.046) | ||||||
| UfAP | -0.906*** | |||||
| (0.082) | ||||||
| UfBA | -0.445*** | |||||
| (0.031) | ||||||
| UfCE | 0.201*** | |||||
| (0.036) | ||||||
| UfDF | -0.549 | |||||
| (0.313) | ||||||
| UfES | -0.153*** | |||||
| (0.042) | ||||||
| UfMA | -0.511*** | |||||
| (0.036) | ||||||
| UfMG | 0.034 | |||||
| (0.024) | ||||||
| UfMS | -0.212*** | |||||
| (0.041) | ||||||
| UfMT | -0.415*** | |||||
| (0.034) | ||||||
| UfPA | -0.584*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| UfPB | -0.484*** | |||||
| (0.033) | ||||||
| UfPE | -0.250*** | |||||
| (0.034) | ||||||
| UfPI | -0.363*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| UfPR | -0.458*** | |||||
| (0.027) | ||||||
| UfRJ | -0.365*** | |||||
| (0.040) | ||||||
| UfRN | -0.398*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| UfRO | -0.226*** | |||||
| (0.048) | ||||||
| UfRR | -0.613*** | |||||
| (0.086) | ||||||
| UfRS | -0.452*** | |||||
| (0.028) | ||||||
| UfSC | -0.450*** | |||||
| (0.029) | ||||||
| UfSE | -0.460*** | |||||
| (0.045) | ||||||
| UfSP | -0.289*** | |||||
| (0.025) | ||||||
| UfTO | -0.278*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO | -0.021 | -0.017 | -0.017 | -0.017 | -0.017 | -0.023 |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO | -0.044** | -0.043** | -0.042** | -0.043** | -0.043** | -0.046*** |
| (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO | -0.040** | -0.036** | -0.036** | -0.036** | -0.036** | -0.043*** |
| (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG | -0.069*** | -0.066*** | -0.065*** | -0.065*** | -0.065*** | -0.050*** |
| (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.012) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG | -0.075*** | -0.067*** | -0.066*** | -0.066*** | -0.067*** | -0.059*** |
| (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.012) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG | -0.124*** | -0.113*** | -0.113*** | -0.112*** | -0.113*** | -0.099*** |
| (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
| Constant | -0.033*** | 0.003 | -0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.257*** |
| (0.010) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.024) | |
| Observations | 21,168 | 21,168 | 21,168 | 21,168 | 21,168 | 21,168 |
| R2 | 0.570 | 0.582 | 0.582 | 0.582 | 0.582 | 0.616 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.570 | 0.581 | 0.582 | 0.581 | 0.581 | 0.615 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.656 (df = 21154) | 0.647 (df = 21148) | 0.647 (df = 21147) | 0.647 (df = 21147) | 0.647 (df = 21147) | 0.621 (df = 21121) |
| F Statistic | 2,157.474*** (df = 13; 21154) | 1,547.885*** (df = 19; 21148) | 1,472.126*** (df = 20; 21147) | 1,470.969*** (df = 20; 21147) | 1,470.976*** (df = 20; 21147) | 735.248*** (df = 46; 21121) |
| Note: | p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001 | |||||
Regression analysis - Math
| Dependent variable: | ||||||
| base_formula | ||||||
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| MATEMATICA_5TH_GRADE | 0.570*** | 0.554*** | 0.553*** | 0.553*** | 0.553*** | 0.457*** |
| (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
| COHORT2009-2013 | -0.326*** | -0.243*** | -0.242*** | -0.243*** | -0.244*** | -0.231*** |
| (0.013) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.014) | |
| COHORT2011-2015 | -0.196*** | -0.119*** | -0.118*** | -0.120*** | -0.120*** | -0.084*** |
| (0.014) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |
| COHORT2013-2017 | -0.140*** | -0.063*** | -0.060*** | -0.062*** | -0.062*** | -0.009 |
| (0.014) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |
| RACA_PRETO | -0.045*** | -0.042*** | -0.044*** | -0.042*** | -0.042*** | -0.081*** |
| (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | |
| NSE_AVG | 0.330*** | 0.328*** | 0.329*** | 0.328*** | 0.331*** | 0.400*** |
| (0.009) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.011) | |
| SEXO_M | -0.023*** | -0.011* | -0.011* | -0.011* | -0.011* | -0.007 |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | |
| ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 | 0.207*** | 0.209*** | 0.212*** | 0.216*** | -0.012 | |
| (0.039) | (0.039) | (0.039) | (0.039) | (0.041) | ||
| afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.007*** | -0.003*** | |
| (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | (0.0004) | ||
| NUM_SCHOOLS | -0.020*** | -0.019*** | -0.018*** | -0.018*** | -0.017*** | |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.004) | ||
| proportion_estadual | -0.027*** | -0.029*** | -0.030*** | -0.030*** | -0.052*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| avg_index_violence | -0.060*** | -0.061*** | -0.061*** | -0.061*** | -0.048*** | |
| (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.005) | ||
| DROP_OUT_RATE | 0.056*** | 0.056*** | 0.056*** | 0.055*** | 0.071*** | |
| (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.006) | ||
| kl_raca | -0.010* | |||||
| (0.005) | ||||||
| kl_NSE | -0.012** | |||||
| (0.005) | ||||||
| kl_raca_ses | -0.015** | -0.009* | ||||
| (0.005) | (0.005) | |||||
| UfAC | -0.234** | |||||
| (0.072) | ||||||
| UfAL | -0.427*** | |||||
| (0.042) | ||||||
| UfAM | -0.613*** | |||||
| (0.046) | ||||||
| UfAP | -0.964*** | |||||
| (0.082) | ||||||
| UfBA | -0.333*** | |||||
| (0.031) | ||||||
| UfCE | 0.140*** | |||||
| (0.036) | ||||||
| UfDF | -0.332 | |||||
| (0.313) | ||||||
| UfES | 0.098* | |||||
| (0.042) | ||||||
| UfMA | -0.564*** | |||||
| (0.036) | ||||||
| UfMG | 0.148*** | |||||
| (0.024) | ||||||
| UfMS | -0.191*** | |||||
| (0.041) | ||||||
| UfMT | -0.358*** | |||||
| (0.034) | ||||||
| UfPA | -0.595*** | |||||
| (0.037) | ||||||
| UfPB | -0.474*** | |||||
| (0.033) | ||||||
| UfPE | -0.179*** | |||||
| (0.034) | ||||||
| UfPI | -0.170*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| UfPR | -0.421*** | |||||
| (0.027) | ||||||
| UfRJ | -0.243*** | |||||
| (0.040) | ||||||
| UfRN | -0.376*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| UfRO | -0.150** | |||||
| (0.048) | ||||||
| UfRR | -0.515*** | |||||
| (0.086) | ||||||
| UfRS | -0.311*** | |||||
| (0.028) | ||||||
| UfSC | -0.288*** | |||||
| (0.029) | ||||||
| UfSE | -0.290*** | |||||
| (0.045) | ||||||
| UfSP | -0.372*** | |||||
| (0.025) | ||||||
| UfTO | -0.153*** | |||||
| (0.035) | ||||||
| COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO | 0.025 | 0.030* | 0.030* | 0.030* | 0.030* | 0.021 |
| (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| (0.014) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO | -0.018 | -0.014 | -0.014 | -0.015 | -0.015 | -0.019 |
| (0.014) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG | -0.089*** | -0.084*** | -0.083*** | -0.083*** | -0.083*** | -0.066*** |
| (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.012) | |
| COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG | -0.144*** | -0.132*** | -0.131*** | -0.131*** | -0.131*** | -0.117*** |
| (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
| COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG | -0.138*** | -0.123*** | -0.122*** | -0.121*** | -0.122*** | -0.106*** |
| (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
| Constant | 0.172*** | 0.181*** | 0.179*** | 0.179*** | 0.179*** | 0.380*** |
| (0.010) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.024) | |
| Observations | 21,168 | 21,168 | 21,168 | 21,168 | 21,168 | 21,168 |
| R2 | 0.561 | 0.574 | 0.574 | 0.574 | 0.574 | 0.616 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.561 | 0.574 | 0.574 | 0.574 | 0.574 | 0.615 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.663 (df = 21154) | 0.653 (df = 21148) | 0.653 (df = 21147) | 0.653 (df = 21147) | 0.653 (df = 21147) | 0.621 (df = 21121) |
| F Statistic | 2,081.670*** (df = 13; 21154) | 1,499.166*** (df = 19; 21148) | 1,424.655*** (df = 20; 21147) | 1,424.926*** (df = 20; 21147) | 1,425.393*** (df = 20; 21147) | 735.962*** (df = 46; 21121) |
| Note: | p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001 | |||||