Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

Published

October 22, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Solomon Islands, Cambodia, Hungary, Moldova.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

Our models have a 70% accuracy rate, meaning that when we predict that a major event will occur, we see a major event occur approximately 70% of the time.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of August 2024. Over the last three months, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in August: A Climate Justice Show was held in Honiara, Solomon Islands, led by a representative from the Solomon Islands Climate Action Network. The event focused on raising awareness about the reality and challenges of climate change in the country and aimed to inspire attendees to take action.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Cambodia

For Cambodia, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Arrests in June and July: Cambodian authorities arrested several accused gang members in Phnom Penh after drug tests revealed some had consumed illegal narcotics. Additionally, Cambodian officials were searching for individuals involved in the illegal transportation of more than 13 cubic meters of luxury timber seized in Pursat Province. In July, three individuals were detained for making remarks against the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area initiative. In Stung Treng Province, two farmers were arrested for cultivating over 700 marijuana plants. Additionally, authorities in Loo Province apprehended individuals involved in the theft of fishing equipment.

  • Censorship in July: Provincial authorities in Takeo and Kratie issued a directive for the removal of alcohol advertisements from public spaces and business premises to maintain order and curb alcohol consumption. This resulted in the removal of alcohol advertising billboards in Tram Kak district, as a legal action enforcing the provincial governor’s initiative.

  • Disaster in July: A severe rice whitefly infestation affected over 50,000 hectares of rice in Prey Veng province and other border areas in Cambodia, posing a major threat to food security. Flooding impacted thousands of families in multiple Cambodian provinces, displacing residents and causing significant damage to homes and infrastructure. Additionally, two Cambodian Air Force crew members died in a helicopter crash in the Cardamom Mountains after a 17-day search for the missing aircraft. Several individuals in Kampong Chhnang province were hospitalized due to puffer fish poisoning.

  • Legal Actions in July: The Phnom Penh government faced an appeal concerning alleged corruption in one of its projects. Additionally, four individuals were accused of activities causing serious concern related to terrorism in Phnom Penh, reported by the First School of Cambodia. Legal proceedings involved members associated with the Khmer Rouge, charged with murder and imprisoned, with connections to Cambodia and other countries.

  • Security Mobilization in June: Security forces in Cambodia dispatched two soldiers to patrol around a school in Khangharan Province to prevent theft.

  • Protests in July and August: Activists from Mother Nature Cambodia and their supporters protested by marching to the Phnom Penh Municipal Court in traditional funeral attire. They objected to the lengthy prison sentences given to ten environmental activists. In August, khmer citizens in the Cambodian diaspora organized protests in South Korea and Australia against the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area (CLV-DTA) project. They voiced concerns over its environmental impact and potential displacement of local communities.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Hungary

For Hungary, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in June: Activism against anti-LGBTQ laws in Hungary included involvement from 35 countries, along with a statement of concern from the American Ambassador, and calls for the abolition of laws targeting LGBTQ individuals. Activists in Hungary also celebrated modest success in their efforts against the Orbán power plant. Additionally, skilled volunteers in Balaton provided first aid care, contributing to health development by reducing fatalities and treating injuries.

  • Censorship in August: Journalists from multiple outlets, including ATV, were barred from entering Péterfy Sándor Street Hospital in Budapest during a visit by Péter Magyar, with the entrance being chained to prevent access. Additionally, the National Media and Infocommunications Authority imposed fines on a morning program for obscene language and required a deposit for excessive hate speech, indicating enforcement of broadcast content regulations.

  • Disaster in August: A whooping cough epidemic spread across Hungary, resulting in 226 reported cases and causing the death of two infants, primarily affecting young children. Multiple train accidents occurred, resulting in several fatalities and causing significant disruptions in train schedules nationwide. The ongoing drought in Hungary severely impacted agricultural production, damaging major crops like corn and sunflower and affecting water levels in lakes and rivers. Multiple drowning incidents were reported in Lake Balaton, resulting in fatalities and raising safety concerns around water bodies. Earthquakes in Croatia were felt in nearby Hungarian regions, highlighting regional seismic activity.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Moldova

For Moldova, our data includes coverage through September 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in September: In Moldova, children and human rights defenders, along with members of parliament, advocated for the recognition and respect of children’s rights, seeking more government support. Priests led by a bishop campaigned against a referendum for Moldova’s accession to the European Union, indicating religious involvement in political affairs. Additionally, an online petition in Orhei gathered support from residents to reduce water and channeling prices, reflecting local economic concerns.

  • Censorship in August: The Bálti tribunal in Moldova suspended the “Ansa” party for three months due to financial documentation issues and alleged connections to the fugitive oligarch Ilan Ór. This action was taken at the request of the Ministry of Justice.

  • Disaster in September: Torrential rains and the Boris cyclone caused significant flooding across Chisinau and other regions in Moldova, resulting in submerged streets, severe traffic disruptions, and damage estimated at 40 million lei. A substantial increase in COVID-19 cases was reported in Moldova, with 1,310 new infections and a 15% rise compared to the previous week, affecting public health services. Additionally, Moldova confirmed a case of hemorrhagic fever due to the Dengue virus, marking it as the first case in two years, and reported two cases of West Nile virus infection, believed to be imported.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.