Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

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Published

October 14, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Paraguay, Kenya, Senegal, Ecuador, Honduras, El Salvador, Malawi, Kyrgyzstan.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Paraguay

For Paraguay, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in July: In Paraguay, the WeLoveU International Foundation conducted a significant cleanup on Guido Boggiani Avenue in Asunción as part of the Clean World Movement against climate change, which was well-attended and recognized for its environmental impact. Similarly, the Atrevidos organization undertook a cleanup initiative at Puente Pesoa, Mburika stream in Asunción, aimed at reducing garbage accumulation and encouraging environmental cleanliness through community engagement. Additionally, the “Bella Vista shelters you 2024” campaign, operated through the local Commune’s Codeni secretariat in Bella Vista, Itapúa, successfully gathered donations, providing shelter and clothing to over 100 vulnerable individuals, including children and older adults, highlighting community support for the disadvantaged.

  • Security Mobilization in May and June: President Santiago Peña signed a decree for the Armed Forces to enhance internal security in Itapúa, Misiones, and Ñeembucú due to rising criminal activities. This included deploying the Joint Task Force in Itapúa to counter command-style bank robberies, expanding military operations in the north against the EPP, and conducting joint anti-drug operations with Brazil in Amambay. Additionally, the Lince Group was positioned in Misiones to improve local security. These efforts involve coordination with the National Police to address organized crime, insecurity, and drug trafficking. The National Anti-Drug Secretariat, in collaboration with the Brazilian Federal Police and the Paraguayan Air Force, launched “Nueva Alianza 45,” leading to the seizure and destruction of significant drug quantities in Amambay. President Santiago Peña also deployed military groups to Itapúa, Misiones, and Ñeembucú to address internal security concerns, including sending about 60 military personnel to Encarnación to support police forces amid increasing insecurity. The National Police carried out a major operation to ensure safety during a sports event, and Brazilian federal agents intercepted marijuana near the border at Lake Itaipú, highlighting cross-border security and public safety efforts.

  • Protests in June: In Paraguay, around 500 members of indigenous communities from Caaguazú and Canindeyú arrived in Asunción to demand infrastructure improvements, basic necessities, and land titles. Meanwhile, thousands of individuals, predominantly from the LGBTQ+ community, also gathered in Asunción for a Pride March, calling for enhanced protections in education, health, and family rights. Additionally, residents of the Martín Rolón colony in San Ignacio Guazú protested due to loss of belongings and crops following heavy rains, seeking immediate intervention from authorities. In another event, victims of fraud by a local automobile company demonstrated in front of the Prosecutor’s Office in San Lorenzo to demand a thorough investigation and accountability for those responsible. Furthermore, the Mbya Guaraní indigenous community in Tarumandy protested peacefully to highlight their more than two-year struggle with a lack of drinking water.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kenya

For Kenya, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of April 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May and June: In Kenya, civil society organizations held a meeting in Nairobi to push for the implementation of the Public Benefit Organizations Act. Opposition has arisen against President William Ruto’s decision to deploy Kenyan police officers to Haiti, with critics arguing that the legal prerequisites for such a deployment have not been adequately satisfied. Indigenous women from 23 ASAL communities advocated for measures to mitigate climate change-related disasters in Samburu County, citing increased risks of sexual and gender-based violence as a consequence of these disasters. There was a legal move to block presidential appointments by four individuals, including a senator, who petitioned a court to prevent the president from appointing chief administrative secretaries based on the National Coordination Act. Additionally, in Embu, farmers and local leaders protested against the ban on the muguka business in Mombasa and Kilifi, disrupting traffic significantly. In Kenya, the High Court reviewed a petition from the Law Society of Kenya regarding the deployment of the military to manage protesters. Concurrently, a broad coalition of civil society organizations, including NGOs, religious institutions, and businesses, rallied against the Finance Bill 2024 over concerns about proposed taxes and their potential economic consequences. Further, activists in Mombasa, supported by a diverse group of community members, sought legislative action to ban the sale and consumption of miraa and muguka due to health implications. In the political sphere, young activists and NGOs backed a petition for the High Court to reconsider the nullification of MP Harrison Kombe’s election. Additionally, environmental concerns were raised by activists in Thika East sub-county, who demanded government action to address the pollution of the Athi River, underscoring the adverse effects on the environment and the well-being of local communities.

  • Censorship in June: In Kenya, the government significantly restricted internet access, causing connectivity to drop to about 42 percent, which also affected neighboring countries such as Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda. This measure was taken in response to dissent or public unrest, despite earlier government promises of not interfering with internet access during the Finance Bill demonstrations. Additionally, bar owners in Mathira, Nyeri County, faced a government-imposed four-month moratorium on their operations, which was lifted after public and media pressure. Furthermore, two Seventh Day Adventist pastors in Kisii took legal action against their church leadership for being barred from preaching, highlighting concerns over religious freedom and governance within religious organizations.

  • Disaster in May: Torrential rainfall since March 2024 led to severe floods affecting around 293,661 people, resulting in at least 291 deaths, and substantial infrastructural damage. Additionally, the burst of a dam near Mai Mahiu and Cyclone Ialy’s impact on the coastal region further exacerbated the situation, leading to the deaths of 61 and two people, respectively. Landslides and a mine collapse also contributed to the casualties and underscored the risks associated with these natural and man-made tragedies.

  • Legal Changes in June and July: President William Ruto of Kenya rejected the Finance Bill 2024 in response to public protests, leading to the introduction of austerity measures for the upcoming fiscal year. The National Assembly’s Finance Committee subsequently removed several contentious clauses from the Finance Bill 2024 before its second reading. Furthermore, amendments to the Sexual Offences Act are being proposed to prevent individuals with sexual offence histories from being employed. Additionally, the Kenya Roads (Amendment) Bill, 2024 aims to create safer roadways by including dedicated lanes for non-motorized transport. Lastly, the Treasury Cabinet Secretary proposed eliminating import taxes on certain agricultural products from the East African Community, aiming to enhance intra-trade, despite potential concerns from local farmers. Recent legislative and judicial developments in Kenya include the signing of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (Amendment) Bill, 2024 by the President, which aims to restructure the electoral commission. Additionally, the Senate passed amendments to the Conflict of Interest Bill, 2023, easing restrictions on public officers regarding government contracts. The High Court provided a temporary reprieve to parents by blocking the fee increase by St Bakhita Schools. Moreover, the Makueni Governor withdrew a contentious Finance Bill following public outcry, showing the influence of public sentiment on policy making. Lastly, sugarcane farmers are advocating for the signing of the Sugar Bill, 2022, which seeks to support the sugar industry in Nyando and Kericho areas.

  • Security Mobilization in May and June: The country announced the deployment of 1,000 specially trained police officers to Haiti to assist with armed gang violence, with the first group expected to arrive shortly. Within its own borders, the Kirinyaga County Government has been addressing natural disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides by clearing blocked drainage systems with additional machinery and manpower. The Kenya Wildlife Service responded to an incident involving a lioness by deploying their Human-Wildlife Conflict team to mitigate the threat to residential areas. In Kenya, the Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) were deployed alongside the National Police Service to manage violent protests against the Finance Bill, impacting public life and business operations in Nairobi. Heightened security was observed around key areas in anticipation of further protests. In Baringo County, a multi-agency operation, including aerial surveillance and patrols, successfully restored calm in areas previously troubled by banditry. Additionally, President William Ruto directed an increase in security for judicial officers after a magistrate was fatally shot, addressing concerns for the safety of legal professionals.

  • Protests in June and July: In Kenya, nationwide protests against the Finance Bill, 2024, occurred across 35 counties, resulting in at least 23 deaths, over 200 injuries, and more than 100 arrests as police responded with tear gas and water cannons. A significant protest took place in Nairobi, where demonstrators stormed the Parliament building amidst debates on the same bill, causing injuries to at least 50 people and setting parts of the building on fire. Similar disturbances were reported in Mombasa, where residents protested against the Finance Bill despite heavy rain. Additionally, residents of Kitengela protested over poor roadwork and alleged embezzlement by a contractor, while those in Banissa Constituency demonstrated against the lack of parliamentary representation for 16 months following their MP’s death. In Kenya, significant protests were led by Generation Z against the Finance Bill 2024 and demanded the resignation of President William Ruto, resulting in 39 deaths and over 361 injuries, with widespread disruption in Nairobi and other cities. Additionally, students, including those from JKUAT, protested over the death of their colleague Denzel Omondi, leading to the storming of Parliament amid concerns of targeted killings. Journalists in the country held protests against police brutality, emphasizing concerns over press freedom in light of government actions during protests. Medical professionals also staged a protest regarding delays in the posting of medical interns, highlighting issues in the healthcare sector. Lastly, Narok residents protested increased accidents and road safety concerns by blocking a busy highway section after the death of two individuals in a traffic incident.

  • Purge/Replace in July: In recent developments within Kenya, President William Ruto dismissed his entire Cabinet, including 22 Cabinet Secretaries, the Attorney General, and the Secretary to the Cabinet, retaining only the Prime Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi, following youth-led protests. Additionally, President Ruto enacted major changes in the Kenya Defense Forces’ leadership and announced the resignation of Inspector General of Police Japheth Koome, appointing Douglas Kanja as the acting Inspector General in the wake of allegations of police brutality during protests. Concurrently, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has undergone a strategic structure adjustment in its National Assembly House and committee leadership after nominations to the Cabinet, and Dr. Wesley Bor, the County Secretary for Kericho, resigned ahead of impeachment proceedings, evidencing accountability measures at various government levels.

  • Raids in May: The Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission conducted a raid on a senior official for alleged corruption in Nairobi City County. More than 200 families faced eviction for defying a directive from the Interior Cabinet Secretary. The Kenya Revenue Authority carried out a tax enforcement raid on a radio station associated with the family of Mombasa’s Governor. Additionally, detectives seized thousands of litres of siphoned fuel in an operation off Kangundo Road, and a suspected drug trafficker was arrested in Voi with a significant quantity of cannabis.

  • Lethal Violence in June and July: In protests against the Finance Bill 2024, at least 53 people died, including 23 confirmed fatalities, from clashes with security forces, marking a significant outbreak of violence associated with civil unrest. Makadara Principal Magistrate Monica Kivuti was fatally shot at Makadara Law Courts by a police officer, underscoring serious concerns regarding security within the country’s judicial system. Additionally, Al-Shabaab militants killed four construction workers in an attack in Dadaab, Garissa County. In relation to anti-finance bill protests, two more fatalities were reported, amplifying the deadly impact of the demonstrations. Moreover, the ongoing exhumations in Shakahola forest have revealed a total of 446 bodies to date, linked to an alleged cult, uncovering a deeply disturbing episode of mass fatalities. Nationwide anti-government protests against the Finance Bill have led to at least 51 deaths, 413 injuries, and 59 abductions, with significant clashes reported between police and demonstrators. During these protests, the discovery of multiple bodies, including 10 in a quarry in Kware and up to eight hacked bodies of women in Nairobi, has sparked outrage and demands for investigations. Additionally, the violence escalated to include the death of individuals such as a Form Four candidate and a prospective university student. Furthermore, ethnic clashes in Kakuma Refugee Camp have resulted in deaths, injuries, and displacement, exacerbating tensions between communities. In a separate incident, a retired senior police officer in Nakuru County killed his wife and himself.

  • Non-lethal Violence in June and July: There have been instances where activists and influencers with significant social media presence were targeted for abductions by a special team from the National Intelligence Service and Directorate of Criminal Investigations, causing widespread alarm. Additionally, in Rongai, Kajiado County, police forces reportedly shot individuals suspected of looting in their legs after ordering them to lie down, resulting in several non-lethal injuries. Furthermore, peaceful protests against the Finance Bill escalated into violence, with significant property damage due to looting and vandalism in Eldoret and Mombasa. The abduction of former Nandi Hills MP Alfred Keter by individuals suspected to be police officers has also been reported, raising concerns over politically motivated abductions. Additionally, the harassment, arrest, and assault of journalists by armed police officers during protests in Nairobi have led to increased worries about press freedom and police conduct. Anti-government protests in Kitengela saw at least 24 protesters admitted to a local hospital with bullet injuries after clashes turned violent. Similarly, an explosive device injured five people at a food joint in Mandera, with the critically wounded being transferred to Nairobi for treatment. Journalists covering anti-government protests were shot by police in separate incidents, sparking outrage among media organizations against police brutality. Additionally, a man attacked churchgoers in Kisii, injuring three, including a senior police officer. Moreover, the Kakuma Refugee Camp experienced violent ethnic clashes resulting in injuries, deaths, and the displacement of refugees, with those affected seeking safety in churches and police stations.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Senegal

For Senegal, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Defamation Cases in May: In Senegal, two notable defamation cases were reported. The first involved the Dakar Correctional Tribunal, which found Sheikh Yérim Seck and Xavier Pryen guilty of defaming Seydina Oumar Touré, a former captain of the gendarmerie. This defamation was linked to a controversy involving Ousmane Sonko and Adji Sarr. In a separate but similar incident, Abdoulaye Sylla, the boss of Ecotra, filed a defamation complaint against Walfadjri’s columnists Pope Sané and Omar Gueye, implicating Sheikh Niass, the general director of the group, in the process.

  • Disaster in July: Senegal is facing a health crisis with over a million chronic carriers of hepatitis B and 360,000 people infected with hepatitis C. In addition, heavy rains have led to widespread flooding in regions including Kaolack, Kaffrine, and Ziguinchor, causing displacement of hundreds of families and severe damage to infrastructure. A road accident on the Ngaye-Kébémer axis resulted in eleven fatalities and four injuries due to a collision between a minibus and a truck. Furthermore, more than a hundred residents of the village of Kolane near Samine and Goudump were hospitalized with severe food poisoning.

  • Security Mobilization in June: In preparation for the Tabsaki celebration, Dakar Dem Dikk deployed 100 buses at the Baux Maraîchers bus station on Saturday, June 15, in response to rising public transport prices. This action was intended to facilitate transportation during the festive period.

  • Purge/Replace in May and July: Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko resigned from his post as mayor of Ziguinchor, following his own directive for government members who hold elective positions to step down, impacting local and national politics. Subsequently, Birame Souleye Diop, the Minister of Energy, Oil, and Mines, also resigned as mayor of Thiès Nord, and Sheikh Tidiane Dièye, the Minister of Hydraulics and Sanitation, stepped down from his role as Vice-President of the County Council of Ziguinchor. Adding to the political movements, MP and political leader Woré Sarr announced her resignation from the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS), signifying a shift in political alignments within the party. The Senegalese Ministry of African Integration and Foreign Affairs, led by Yassine Fall, recalled 80 members of its diplomatic staff as part of significant changes within its diplomatic network. These changes have led to new appointments for several key positions, including vice-consul, head of the economic bureau, and secretary.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Ecuador

For Ecuador, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of April 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: Human Rights Watch warned about severe human rights violations by Ecuadorian security forces amid a declared state of internal armed conflict by President Daniel Noboa, detailing these issues in a letter to the president. Additionally, social movements along with the Kitu Kara people have demanded the recognition of the rights of the Machángara River in Quito, bringing a protection action to the Constitutional Judge of Pichincha due to pollution problems.

  • Censorship in June and July: The government revoked the visa of Cuban journalist Alondra Santiago, citing national security concerns purportedly based on a secret intelligence report. Santiago, who has made critical reports in the past, contends that this action aims to limit access to information, asserting it as a violation of the right to information.

  • Corruption in June: In Ecuador, the multinational corporation Gunvor S.A. admitted to paying bribes to Petroecuador officials and agreed to pay $93. 6 million to the Ecuadorian State. Investigations, including the Metastasis and Purga cases, revealed a vast network of organized crime infiltrating the justice system, with corruption implicating judges, lawyers, and public officials for personal and criminal gains. The National Anti-Corruption Commission has initiated legal action concerning 54 public procurement processes within the healthcare sector, accusing favoritism towards certain medical supply providers. Additionally, corruption issues have surfaced within foundations under the Ministry of Economic and Social Inclusion, with allegations against 26 recently established foundations engaging in fraudulent activities. The Plaga case also highlighted systemic corruption, focusing on a scheme to manipulate the judicial process to release prisoners for bribes or favors, affecting eight provinces.

  • Legal Actions in June and July: The trial for the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was conducted under significant security, underscoring the seriousness of the charges against the five defendants. The National Court of Justice affirmed the legality of former Vice-President Jorge Glas’s incarceration. An investigation known as the Purga case revealed a corruption network within the judicial system, implicating public officials, judges, and lawyers. Vice President Veronica Abad faced allegations related to her involvement in the Nene case and a complaint in the Electoral Dispute Tribunal for alleged concussion. Cuban journalist Alondra Santiago’s efforts to remain in Ecuador after her visa revocation attracted attention, particularly due to her critical stance towards President Daniel Noboa and concerns about public security.The International Court of Justice set deadlines for Ecuador and Mexico to present submissions regarding Ecuador’s lawsuit concerning the stay of its former Vice-President at the Mexican Embassy in Quito. Ecuador is also witnessing a high-profile trial involving the murder of politician Fernando Villavicencio, with the Attorney General’s Office playing an active role in the proceedings. Investigations into corruption cases have implicated former President Rafael Correa and former Minister Walter Solís in the improper delegation and concession of the Manta port’s administration. The political trial of former Chancellor Gabriela Sommerfeld, related to embassy issues and the refusal to issue safe conduct, highlights the country’s current political and legal challenges. Additionally, the denial of habeas corpus appeals for individuals, including a former judicial official and the ex-vice president, reflects ongoing legal controversies in Ecuador.

  • Security Mobilization in June: Nearly 4,000 officers, comprised of both police and military personnel, were deployed indefinitely in Manabí, specifically around Manta, to address criminal violence linked to organized crime groups. Alongside, the Anti-Criminal Investigative Force initiated Operation Zero Impunity 3 across multiple provinces, including Manabí, Guayas, and Esmeraldas, to target criminal gangs and terrorist groups. Following a spree of violent incidents, an agreement was signed to strengthen security at 33 health entities across seven provinces. Furthermore, military and police operations in Manta saw an increase, following the relocation of the national command to the city in response to a surge in violent deaths. Additionally, interventions in the country’s prisons, such as the Armed Forces’ operation at the Napo Liberty Deprivation Centre No. 1, were conducted to maintain order and curb criminality within the correctional system.

  • Protests in June and July: On June 12, 2024, approximately 1,500 teachers in Nariño, Ecuador, protested by obstructing the international bridge of Rumichaca, focusing on reforms in the statutory law of the magisterium. The same day saw protests from various social organizations and students in Quito against the government’s economic measures, including the elimination of fuel subsidies and an increase in VAT from 12% to 15%. The Popular Front led similar protests in Quito against the elimination of fuel subsidies, causing road closures. Additionally, on June 22, 2024, Quito hosted a large LGBTQ+ Pride march, indicating a significant social event. Furthermore, traders from Ayacucho Street in Guayaquil protested against increasing criminal activities which they believed affected their businesses. On July 4th and July 2nd, widespread protests led by social organizations, including the Unitary Workers’ Front and the National Union of Educators, took place against the government’s decision to eliminate fuel subsidies, causing significant road closures and disruptions in major cities like Quito and Guayaquil. Additionally, protests occurred in Guayaquil by kidney patients demanding better healthcare services on July 31st, and heavy transport drivers mobilized a caravan to Quito protesting against security concerns on July 29th.

  • Raids in June and July: On June 29, the Attorney General’s Office arrested at least two judges during raids in five provinces related to the Plaga case investigation. Further operations included a significant raid on June 12 targeting a criminal group’s leadership in Manta, leading to multiple arrests and seizures. Additional police and armed forces efforts on June 6 and throughout June and April in Manta, Manabí, and Guayas targeted illegal firearms, drugs, and dismantled criminal groups, resulting in several arrests. Additionally, on June 15, an illegal hydrocarbon storage facility was dismantled in Joya de los Sachas, Orellana province, in a joint operation by Petroecuador, Armed Forces, and National Police. In Durán, Guayas, authorities executed 80 raids by police and military to target criminal activities. Police in Guayaquil conducted three raids resulting in the seizure of six tons of cocaine, marking the largest drug bust of the year. Additionally, investigations into irregularities in vehicle registration processes were conducted in Guayas and Manabí, while raids in Guayaquil and Milagro as part of the Triple A case focused on allegations of illicit fuel trade. Similarly, Operation Zero Impunity 5 saw 37 raids across six provinces, including Guayas, Manabí, and El Oro, to counteract activities such as homicide.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Honduras

For Honduras, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of April 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: In Honduras, relatives of those found guilty of murder in the case of environmentalist Berta Cáceres sought a fair and impartial application of the law, reacting to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights’ acceptance of a revised appeal. Meanwhile, human rights defenders and activists, including Jorge Jiménez and Dina Meza, faced threats and persecution for their efforts in exposing corruption within the country. Additionally, the Scout 15 Group “Zorzales de Sula,” under the leadership of Brizzia Lupi, initiated a reforestation campaign in the Sampedran community to improve environmental and ecological awareness with support from the Jardines del Valle colony.

  • Corruption in May and June: In Honduras, investigations have been initiated into the alleged misappropriation of funds provided by the Inter-American Development Bank for mitigation works during the tenure of former President Porfirio Lobo Sosa. Concurrently, Operation Lineage is ongoing, targeting money laundering and organized crime across Cortes, Copán, and Islas de la Bahía with the seizure of 126 assets. The Ministry of Health is under scrutiny for nepotism, specifically the hiring practices of Minister Carla Paredes, while eight National Police officers were convicted for collecting bribes from farmers. Furthermore, the former Finance Minister is on trial for alleged fraud in the procurement of mobile hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Finance Minister presented evidence to the Public Ministry highlighting fraudulent management of trusts involving more than 95 billion lempiras, with public officials and entrepreneurs implicated. Additionally, the former President was sentenced to 45 years in prison for crimes related to drug trafficking and corruption. Investigations have also led to the indictment of three congressmen in the “Red de Diputados” case for embezzlement of funds from the National Congress, and officials in San Pedro Sula are under scrutiny for asset laundering. Furthermore, former officials linked to the Strategic Investment of Honduras (Invest-H) were detained over fraudulent activities related to the purchase of mobile hospitals during the Covid-19 pandemic.

  • Defamation Cases in May and June: The deputy commissioner of the National Registry of Persons filed a complaint against a former presidential appointee for degrading treatment, insults, and slanders. Additionally, complaints were filed by a nationalist deputy against an official congressman and by a member of parliament against a legislator, both for aggravated slander. Furthermore, the mayor of San Pedro Sula lodged a complaint for defamation and slander against the deputy mayor, showing political tensions within different levels of government in Honduras. In Honduras, two defamation cases were reported. The first involved the absolution of deputy Fabricio Sandoval from the Freedom and Refounding Party (Libre), following allegations of slander made by Congresswoman Lissi Cano. This case concluded with a judicial ruling in favor of Sandoval. The second case saw the mayor of San Pedro Sula, Roberto Contreras, filing a defamation lawsuit against deputy mayor Omar Menjívar Rosales for alleged slanders and insults, with the trial set to commence on August 12, 2024.

  • Disaster in May and June: Honduras has declared a national emergency due to severe air pollution caused by numerous forest fires, leading to extensive forest damage and impacting public health. Concurrently, the country is grappling with an alarming dengue epidemic, with over 18,000 cases reported and multiple deaths, prompting another national emergency declaration as hospitals struggle with the surge during the rainy season. Additionally, an energy crisis, fueled by a heat wave and prolonged drought, has resulted in national blackouts and a significant reduction in power generation. These crises are occurring alongside challenges faced by thousands of migrants crossing from Honduras to Guatemala, who encounter threats of tropical diseases, including dengue fever, and other significant hardships. Honduras has been facing a range of crises, including a severe dengue epidemic with over 25,000 cases and nearly 50 deaths reported, straining the healthcare system especially for children and young adults. In addition, heavy rains have resulted in widespread flooding, landslides, and displacement of people, with approximately 6,098 individuals affected and 61 families losing their homes. The continuous heavy rains have also reactivated multiple geological faults in Tegucigalpa, causing significant structural damages and displacements. Moreover, an explosion on a boat in Roatán led to severe injuries and at least two fatalities, emphasizing the lack of adequate medical facilities in the region. Furthermore, forest fires have significantly damaged over 233,722 hectares of forest and vegetation, marking a notable increase from the previous year and contributing to environmental concerns.

  • Legal Actions in June: In Honduras, a notable legal action involved the sentencing of Eber Ezequiel Espinoza to 96 years in prison for the murder of Said Lobo, the son of ex-President Porfirio Lobo. In parallel, investigations and legal scrutiny continued around former President Juan Orlando Hernández, his family, and close associates for potential charges related to corruption and other criminal activities. Furthermore, three former officials of Strategic Investment of Honduras (Invest-H) were formally indicted in connection to a corruption case involving mobile hospitals. These developments signify ongoing legal and judicial activities targeting high-profile figures and corruption within the country.

  • Legal Changes in May and July: The President of the National Congress in Honduras introduced a draft decree to establish a Constitutional Court with the same responsibilities and powers as the existing Constitutional Chamber. Proposed changes in tax law under the Tax Justice Act suggest eliminating 10 tax regimes, including the Temporary Import System, which is expected to significantly affect 80 companies and impact investment. Discussions were held to meet United Nations requirements for establishing the International Commission Against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (CICIH) to combat corruption and impunity. A new law was enacted to create the Register of Morosos Food Debtors (REDAM) to enforce maintenance obligations by parents towards their children. The National Congress also enacted reforms aimed at enhancing environmental protection, including the establishment of protected areas and initiatives to counter deforestation and natural resource mismanagement. In Honduras, the National Congress is preparing to approve the Effective Collaboration Act to aid investigations by offering benefits to individuals who provide crucial information, a key step for establishing the CICIH. A proposal to grant constitutional status to the CICIH did not pass in the National Congress, falling short by four votes. Reforms are also proposed for the Law of the National Institute for the Prevision of the Magisterium to improve its functioning and benefits for teachers, including reducing retirement age requirements. The Tax Justice Act, which aims to reduce inequality and enhance economic development by adjusting tax policies, has garnered enough votes for approval. Additionally, a new State contracting law is being finalized by the Executive Power to streamline procurement processes, with widespread support anticipated from the National Congress.

  • Security Mobilization in July: In Honduras, security forces were mobilized to combat crime and improve public safety across various regions. This included interventions in 47 neighborhoods in Tegucigalpa and Comayagüela to reduce crime, the deployment of police following the kidnapping and murder of five young people, and the search for 14 missing persons in Tela, with over 300 National Police officers involved. Additionally, more than 1,200 newly-trained police officers were deployed in Tegucigalpa to enhance national security, alongside about 500 officers conducting patrols and deterrent operations under the Plan Solution against Crime.

  • Protests in July: In Honduras, residents from the Misquito community protested the government’s plan to construct a prison in their ancestral territory, citing legal and environmental concerns. Concurrently, teachers across the nation engaged in a strike against proposed reforms affecting their professional prediction institute, highlighting reported police abuses during their peaceful protests. Kidney patients also took part in demonstrations, blocking major roads to demand better healthcare services and criticize the government’s direct contracting practices. Employees at a hospital in Puerto Cortés protested for multiple days seeking the dismissal of their director and the reinstatement of colleagues they claim were unjustly dismissed. Furthermore, members of the Agrarian Platform and Indigenous groups demanded actions from authorities in Tegucigalpa concerning their land rights and access.

  • Raids in June: In Honduras, a significant operation involving more than 10 raids was carried out by the Honduran Armed Forces and Directorate of Counter-narcotics in the Gracias a Dios department, targeting drug trafficking structures. Concurrently, the Public Prosecutor’s Office led multiple raids against a drug trafficking network in La Ceiba, Atlantis, seizing properties, vehicles, and cash. Moreover, raids executed by the Special Prosecutor against Organized Crime and Technical Agency for Criminal Investigation in Copán targeted the “Los Hidalgos” criminal structure, leading to the seizure of numerous properties. In another part of the country, Military Police dismantled a surveillance network installed by Pandilla 18 in Cortés, and operations against the Urbina Soto clan in Yoro resulted in the seizure of weapons and an armored vehicle.

  • Non-lethal Violence in July: The attack on the Garifuna community in San Juan by police, military, and officers of the Police Investigations Directorate (DPI) led to heightened tensions. An ongoing concern has been noted with approximately 274 young people under 30 years old affected by violence, indicating a broader issue of violence against youth. Disputes also transpired between private security of the Government Civic Center (GCC) and members of the Union of the National Electric Energy Company (STENEE), including its president, over building access. Moreover, the National Commissioner for Human Rights (Conadeh) reported about 180 complaints of forced displacement by violence affecting indigenous and Afro-Honduran peoples between 2016 and 2023, with 42 cases in 2023 alone, affecting community stability. Lastly, an altercation in San Pedro Sula between vendors and municipal police over public space use resulted in injuries and arrests.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Civic Space Index in Q2 2024. Consistent with the forecast, we saw an increase in the CSI in June 2024.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

El Salvador

For El Salvador, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in June: In El Salvador, over 10,000 individuals, including helpers, firefighters, public works officials, doctors, nurses, military, and police, were mobilized to respond to the emergency caused by heavy rains. A coalition of social and human rights organizations held a solidarity event expressing support for ex-combatants and veterans detained by the police. Feminist and human rights activist Morena Herrera criticized the judicial system for acquitting five soldiers accused of raping a minor, advocating for justice to prevent sexual violence impunity. The National Confederation of Salvadoran Workers reported alleged violations of trade union freedoms by the government to the International Labour Organization. Additionally, the Humanitarian Legal Aid organized a collection drive for families impacted by the rains, distributing food and hygiene products.

  • Defamation Cases in June: In El Salvador, a former San Salvador Councilman, Hector Silva Hernandez, was convicted of slandering and defaming a deputy from Nuevas Ideas, resulting in an order to pay $50,000 in moral reparations. Meanwhile, the Second Chamber of Criminal Law in San Salvador ruled that the trial against journalist and former MP José Valladares, previously nullified, should proceed according to regular legal procedures. Valladares has been accused of slander and defamation by a YouTuber.

  • Disaster in June and July: In El Salvador, heavy rains and flooding that began on June 14, 2024, have led to 19 deaths and the displacement of 4,230 individuals, with significant damage to homes and infrastructure prompting the activation of over 100 shelters. The country also reported its first dengue death in almost five years, with over 2,000 suspected cases during a severe public health emergency coinciding with the rainy season. The floods have severely affected agriculture, causing the deaths of at least 50 cattle and the destruction of farms, raising concerns over food security. Additionally, landslides resulting from the rainfall have collapsed several homes and critical infrastructure, resulting in further deaths and displacements. Amid these crises, a swarm of bees in Concepción Quezaltepeque caused multiple injuries. El Salvador declared a national red alert due to a significant outbreak of dengue fever, reporting over 313 confirmed cases, including four fatalities among minors, leading to the fumigation of approximately 700,000 homes. The country also experienced severe flooding in several regions caused by the overflow of the Grande River, affecting over 500 homes and leading to the evacuation of dozens of families. Furthermore, Hurricane Beryl, downgraded to a category 2 storm upon landfall, caused widespread flooding and property damage, necessitating the evacuation of families and the disruption of infrastructure. In addition, El Salvador has been dealing with frequent seismic activity, including a notable 5. 9 magnitude earthquake, and observed water vapor emission from the Chaparrastique volcano. There has also been a significant spike in COVID-19 cases, with a nearly 170% increase from the previous year, prompting health authorities to prepare for higher hospital demand and reinforce preventive measures.

  • Legal Changes in May: In recent developments in El Salvador, the Legislative Assembly has approved a constitutional reform that changes how constitutional changes are made and ratified, effectively reducing public involvement in the process. Concurrently, amendments to electoral rules have been implemented, which are seen to favor the ruling party ahead of the 2024 elections. The government has also submitted a draft for a new Higher Education Act, requiring mandatory accreditation for higher education institutions, potentially leading to the closure of those unable to meet new standards. Moreover, a bill providing reparations to civil war victims was filed but has not progressed, despite advocacy from civil society organizations. Additionally, a subsidy for propane gas has been extended until May 31, 2025, in response to economic challenges facing the population.

  • Security Mobilization in May and July: In El Salvador, security force mobilization occurred in the district of Apopa, involving over 2,000 soldiers and 1,000 policemen to capture gang remnants and restore order, impacting public life and civil liberties. Concurrently, the Ministry of Labour launched a nationwide deployment of labor inspectors to ensure compliance with the Municipal Administrative Career Act, targeting all mayors and municipal administrations to maintain lawful working conditions. Additionally, the National Civil Police conducted operations in bars, discotheques, and tolerance centers, and deployed special forces in several colonies of Soyapango to prevent criminal activities and verify the legality of residences. Measures were also taken on International Labour Day, with police controls set up to manage demonstrations and maintain public order. The National Civil Police (PNC) conducted operations in various tolerance centers and bars to prevent criminal activities, alongside providing daily security at Agromarkets and on public transportation to enhance passenger safety. Additionally, the National Civil Protection System initiated efforts to eliminate breeding grounds for dengue-transmitting mosquitoes across the country. Furthermore, the Ministry of Public Works (MOP) tackled infrastructure by repairing streets in Ayutuxtepeque, responding to damage caused by recent rains. These activities span from large-scale mobilizations for public health and safety to targeted actions addressing local infrastructure needs.

  • Protests in May: Workers, organized groups, and LGTBIQ+ organizations held marches in San Salvador on International Labour Day opposing labor rights violations, human rights abuses, constitutional reforms, and demanded legal protections for LGTBIQ+ individuals. Environmental concerns led communities in Cabañas department to march for water preservation and commemorate three environmentalists killed in 2009. In support of Armando Jiron, the mayor of La Paz Centro, arrested for environmental pollution, supporters demonstrated for his release. University students and teachers protested against the delayed handover of buildings by the Ministry of Public Works. Additionally, bus drivers suspended their service over unpaid Social Security and AFP benefits, disrupting public transportation.

  • Purge/Replace in May: In El Salvador, the Supreme Court of Justice removed Luz María Díaz Ramírez, a judge overseeing key criminal cases involving former high-profile political figures, from her position. Concurrently, the Cuscatancingo Union reported the dismissal of 35 employees without immediate compensation, actions perceived as politically motivated. Personal reasons led to the resignation of Carlos Castro, a district chief, and the resignation of several officials from the Instituto Tecléño de los Deportes y Recreación due to suspected mismanagement. Additionally, Marcela Pineda, a former deputy now serving in La Paz Este, identified irregularities within districts governed by her party, pointing to internal challenges.

  • Lethal Violence in May: Since March 2022, El Salvador has recorded 301 deaths in various prisons, attributed to medical negligence and denial of medical treatment. In 2023, the country faced 17 murders of journalists, alongside 13 kidnappings, enforced disappearances, multiple arbitrary arrests, tortures, and thousands of assaults and attacks against media personnel. Additionally, cases of domestic and familial violence were highlighted by the murder of Teresa de Jesús Medina in San Miguel on May 4, and a 70-year-old woman in Soyapango on May 9. Furthermore, an alleged MS-13 gang member was killed after an altercation with the Armed Forces in La Palma, Chalatenango on May 15.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Lethal Violence in Q2 2024, Q3 2024.

Consistent with our prediction, we saw an increase in reporting on Lethal Violence in May 2024.

We have not yet seen a spike in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q3 2024.

We are no longer predicting an increase in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q3 2024.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Malawi

For Malawi, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of April 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: In Malawi, a coalition of sixteen civil society organisations, including Youth and Society and the Malawi Health Equity Network, has called for the resignation of the Director of Public Prosecutions due to allegations of hindering anti-corruption efforts. Citizens in Mangochi District organized a march to press the government for the full opening of Kamuzu Barrage to alleviate water level concerns in local bodies of water. Furthermore, the Malawi Allied Building Contractors Association petitioned the Roads Fund Administration over unpaid dues amounting to K14 billion, issuing a seven-day ultimatum for settlement. In another event, journalists convened in Mangochi to mark World Press Freedom Day. Additionally, child rights organizations are advocating for the swift enactment of Draft Child Care Protection and Justice Foster Homes Regulations to better support children lacking biological parental care.

  • Censorship in May: In Malawi, the U.S. Embassy charge d’affaires condemned attacks on journalists, stating these incidents undermine media freedom, contravene the Constitution, and pose a threat to democracy and freedom of expression. The government also halted a group of Rwandan exiles from holding a convention, preventing their assembly and expression. Additionally, the Director of Public Prosecutions is under parliamentary inquiry over the discontinuation of high-profile court cases, including those involving corruption charges against political leaders, raising concerns about political influence on judicial decisions.

  • Corruption in May: In Malawi, Vice-President Saulos Chilima was discharged from a corruption case despite allegations of bribery and financial misconduct linked to businessman Zuneth Sattar, an action that generated considerable public and civil society backlash. In relation to the Cashgate scandal, Rex and Laura Savala repaid K248 million of embezzled public funds, resulting in the withdrawal of their legal case. Additionally, sixteen civil society organizations have pressured the Anti-Corruption Bureau to hasten an investigation concerning a Mercedes Benz allegedly received by the Malawi Congress Party Secretary General from Zuneth Sattar. The Centre for Democracy and Economic Development Initiatives criticized the Attorney General’s selective approach to recovering funds misappropriated by Salima Sugar Company. Meanwhile, a teacher at Chawe Primary School was accused of embezzling examination fees, affecting students’ ability to sit for their examinations.

  • Defamation Cases in May and July: In Malawi, a resident of Mponela was convicted for insulting President Dr. Lazarus Chakwera in a WhatsApp forum. This incident, judged under the Prohibition of Offensive Communication Act, could lead to the individual facing fines and imprisonment. In Malawi, Norman Chisale, who served as the personal bodyguard to the former president, was acquitted on all six charges against him, which included intimidating public officers and obstruction of justice. These charges had been presented by high-profile figures including the Minister of Justice and the former Director of Public Prosecutions.

  • Disaster in June: In Malawi, a plane crash in the Chikangawa Forest resulted in the death of the Vice-President and eight others. The country is also facing a food crisis, with 40% of its population affected following extreme weather conditions, including floods and droughts, and Cyclone Freddy survivors are in need of urgent relief. Additionally, a severe water shortage is affecting the Thyolo District, forcing communities to rely on unsafe water sources. Furthermore, a minibus accident in Rumphi resulted in seven fatalities.

  • Legal Changes in June: In Malawi, the Constitutional Court recently upheld the criminalization of homosexuality, a decision that has been met with criticism from human rights activists. Additionally, the Electronic Transactions and Cyber Security Act has faced scrutiny for its alleged use as a tool by the government to suppress dissent. President Lazarus Chakwera did not sign the Cannabis Regulations, sending the bill back to Parliament for further review. Furthermore, the Department of Disaster Management Affairs emphasized the importance of publicizing the 2023 Disaster Risk Management Law to improve community awareness and preparedness. Lastly, there has been a call by the Road Safety Alert Foundation to lower the speed limit from 50 km/h to 30 km/h on certain roads in response to a rise in road accidents, advocating for enhanced safety measures.

  • Security Mobilization in June: In Malawi, a series of significant security force mobilizations were reported following the death of Vice-President Saulos Chilima, beginning with the nationwide recall of all police officers from leave to manage increasing political tensions. Additionally, a search operation for the missing plane of Vice-President Saulos Chilima involved both domestic and international forces, including the Malawi Defence Force and a U.S. military aircraft. Around 2,000 officers were deployed at Chilima’s burial ceremony to ensure the event’s security. Another response included the establishment of the Ntonda Police Unit in Ntcheu District to bolster local security and law enforcement presence.

  • Protests in May and June: Judiciary staff in Malawi organized a nationwide strike, seeking a review of their salaries and working conditions, which affected the functioning of the judicial system. Building contractors associated with the Malawi Allied Building Contractors Association protested against the Roads Fund Administration for not disbursing a K14 billion payment owed since January, raising concerns over economic disruptions. In Lilongwe, supporters of the UTM Party celebrated the acquittal of Dr. Saulos Klaus Chilima from a corruption case, indicating active political engagement. Healthcare workers anticipated a nationwide strike due to delayed payment of allowances but halted their plans after discussions with the health ministry. Additionally, a group named Concerned Citizens of Malawi announced plans for a demonstration in Zomba, calling for the resignation of certain government officials. Healthcare workers initiated a nationwide strike on June 10, 2024, due to unmet demands for allowances and improved working conditions, significantly disrupting public health services. Immigration officers threatened a strike over the removal of their director general, which could have halted border operations, though it ultimately did not occur. The Secondary School Teachers Union expressed dissatisfaction with the allowances for supervising exams, raising concerns about the future administration of educational assessments. Human rights activists and concerned citizens announced plans for demonstrations against the high cost of living and poor governance, scheduled for July 10, 2024. Farmers are also seeking a 40% stake in the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation, aiming for greater empowerment and funding for improvements.

  • Purge/Replace in May and June: In Malawi, the Public Appointments Committee (PAC) of Parliament ordered the dismissal and recall of staff working as principal officers at various embassies due to appointments not approved by the committee and pushed for the dismissal of thousands of public officers who failed to declare their assets, businesses, and liabilities. Civil society organizations demanded the resignation of Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) Masauko Chamkakala, citing a loss of public trust after the discontinuation of serious corruption cases. Additionally, there were calls for the resignation or dismissal of Director Charles Kalumo of the Department of Immigration and Citizenship Services by concerned officers citing allegations of maltreatment and mismanagement. Kondwani Nankhumwa resigned as Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, choosing to focus on strengthening the newly registered People’s Development Party (PDP). The High Court in Blantyre ruled the appointment of the director general of the Department of Immigration and Citizenship Services unlawful, leading to the individual’s removal. The Vice-President was dismissed for allegedly holding secret meetings with another political party. Operational continuity at the Malawi Electoral Commission faced challenges due to the expiry of contracts for senior staff, including the chairperson and commissioners. Within the Department of Immigration and Citizenship Services, a previous commissioner was reinstated as the acting director general amid ongoing corruption investigations. The Malawi Police Service disciplined several officers, with demotions and recommendations for dismissal.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kyrgyzstan

For Kyrgyzstan, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of April 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Defamation Cases in June: The Committee for the Protection of Journalists (CPJ) has called on Kyrgyz authorities to dismiss defamation charges against 11 journalists, both current and former members of Temirov Live.

  • Disaster in June and July: In Kyrgyzstan, heavy rains led to destructive mudflows and floods across Osh, Jalal-Abad, and Issyk-Kul regions, necessitating the evacuation of hundreds, assisting over 1,000 individuals, and causing damage to infrastructure. Concurrently, a measles outbreak affected 10,798 people across various regions including Bishkek, Chui province, and Osh province. Additionally, an explosion at the Bishkek Thermal Power Plant (TEC) was attributed to coal dust ignition, resulting in several injuries and leaving parts of the city without heating. Furthermore, an environmental incident occurred when a truck transporting uranium waste overturned in Min-Kush, prompting grave concerns among residents and leading to the formation of an inspection commission. Lastly, a 4. 5 magnitude earthquake hit Jalal-Abad province, causing tremors but no significant damages were reported. Kyrgyzstan faced a series of natural and man-made disasters recently. Significant mudflows in the Osh region affected hundreds of dwellings and necessitated the evacuation of around 420 people, disrupting water and electricity supply. The country also experienced several earthquakes, causing panic and temporary evacuations in affected communities. Destructive mudflows triggered by torrential rains in various districts led to multiple fatalities and property damage, requiring extensive rescue operations. Additionally, the summer season witnessed 54 drowning incidents, including 21 children. Fires, fueled by heatwaves, resulted in significant damage to infrastructure and homes, contributing to 172 deaths from various disasters since the year’s start.

  • Legal Changes in June: The Parliament of Kyrgyzstan passed a series of draft laws on administrative and territorial reform intended to expand economic territories and streamline administrative units, aiming for better governance efficiency. Additionally, an agreement on cooperation for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project was ratified, signifying a step towards significant infrastructure development and enhanced regional connectivity. In a move affecting environmental and health policy, the President of Kyrgyzstan signed a law to repeal a ban on uranium and thorium mining, which had been established in 2019. Meanwhile, after facing criticism from journalists, a new version of the Media Bill was withdrawn by the President for further review, reflecting concerns regarding freedom of expression. Furthermore, MPs approved a financing agreement aimed at improving the standard and innovation in higher education, in partnership with the International Development Association.

  • Security Mobilization in May: In Kyrgyzstan, on the evening of 18 May, over 2,500 individuals, dubbed ‘people’s friends,’ along with the Bishkek garrison, were mobilized in the capital for preventive work to secure the safety of citizens and foreign guests. Similarly, on 9 May, more than 6,000 members of internal affairs agencies, including 1,500 police officers, were deployed during certain events. A police station was set up near large hostels in Bishkek to avert potential clashes after a mass fight that resulted in the detention of foreigners. Additionally, the passage of persons, vehicles, and goods at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border crossing was temporarily halted for specific hours between 11 May and 12 May due to actions by the border security forces. Furthermore, over 1,000 police officers were mobilized to ensure security at school events known as “last bells” on 25 May.

  • Protests in May: In Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on the night of May 17-18, protests involving up to 700 young people erupted against foreign nationals, sparked by a dramatic increase in migrants from countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, and India. This violent episode was a reaction to a prior conflict between locals and foreign students, leading to 27 injuries and the subsequent exodus of many foreign students. Separately, a national demonstration occurred from June 3 to June 15, focusing on various governmental and social issues. Additionally, an environmental initiative dubbed “Ecobattle” was conducted in the Botanical Garden of Gareev on May 13, engaging students, experts, and activists in environmental conservation efforts. Moreover, an anti-drug campaign titled “Be healthy and fashionable” was launched by the Office of the Mayor of Bishkek, aiming to curb drug trafficking and increase awareness among the youth.

  • Purge/Replace in June: Kurmankul Zulushev resigned from the post of Attorney General, a move approved by parliament and following a reprimand from President Sadir Zaparov. Ulanbek Totuyaev was removed from his role as Ambassador to Pakistan for improper performance, as decreed by the same president. Melis Turgunbaev was dismissed from his position as Minister of Natural Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision, with his dismissal indicating a shift in ecological policy direction. Additionally, Deputy Aygul Aydarov was expelled from the parliamentary faction Butun Kyrgyzstan, a move that suggests an internal party recalibration. Lastly, Gulnara Baatirov stepped down from her position as Minister of Labour, Social Security, and Migration, marking a change in the leadership of social services administration.

  • Raids in May and June: A transnational drug group was dismantled in an operation that detained 12 individuals involved in drug supply and distribution. Another operation targeted members of the Yakin-Inkar religious and extremist movement in Osh province, leading to the confiscation of books and electronic devices. In Bishkek, raids aimed at curbing illegal migration and activities among foreign nationals resulted in preventive measures and the suspension of work for over 400 foreign students in delivery services. A nightclub in Bishkek was closed following a raid where colored pills and odorless bottles were found. Additionally, a raid in Osh province by the State Tax Service uncovered 1,949 alcohol items without excise stamps, indicating illegal storage and sale of untaxed alcoholic products. Between June 3 and 9, Kyrgyzstan launched a large-scale operation named “Illegal Trafik,” involving several governmental departments, including the Department of Internal Affairs and the Office of the Attorney-General, to address illegal migration and violations of laws by foreign nationals. Raids by the Service for Combating Extremism and Illegal Migration and national security agents in Bishkek and the Chui region led to the detention of 56 Bangladeshi nationals for violating migration legislation. The Ministry of Internal Affairs’ Service for Combating Illicit Drug Trafficking conducted operations in nightclubs, bars, and entertainment venues in Bishkek to prevent drug trafficking. A significant operation by the State Tax Service at the Bereket-Universal Trade Centre in Bishkek uncovered the illegal sale of tobacco and alcohol products. In Issyk-Kul district, a raid identified 17 minors working illegally.

  • Non-lethal Violence in May: In Kyrgyzstan, a riot between local and foreign students in Bishkek resulted in multiple injuries, prompting intervention by both Pakistani and Kyrgyz officials, including the President. A truck accident in Jerge-Tal village injured 29 school children, leading to visits and assistance from local authorities. A stabbing incident near a table tennis club in Bishkek resulted in the detention of a suspect, drawing concern from local officials. Additionally, the dormitory of the International University of Kyrgyzstan Medical School was attacked, leading to high-profile visits and condemnations of the violence. A child abduction case in Bishkek caused significant public alarm, prompting a police investigation before the girl was found safe.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.