Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Timor Leste, Albania, Serbia, Kosovo, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, Pakistan, Indonesia. We are forecasting major events for Bangladesh.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
Our models have a 70% accuracy rate, meaning that when we predict that a major event will occur, we see a major event occur approximately 70% of the time. In our previous report, we accurately predicted the major Protest activity in Bangladesh that resulted in the collapse of the government.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
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Bangladesh
For Bangladesh, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in July and August: Significant activism events included the quota reform movement, where students protested for changes to the quota system in government services. Additionally, protests and human chains were formed to demand women’s safety, justice for victims, and environmental protection. International organizations raised concerns about the repression of student activists and human rights abuses, and farmers and businessmen in Mahadangpur organized a human chain demanding action against financial misconduct in the rice industry. Recent events in Bangladesh included a student-led opposition movement against government discrimination, with participants gathering at Dhaka University to protest perceived undemocratic policies, attracting international attention. Additionally, large-scale relief efforts were organized by student movements to support flood victims, involving distribution of essential supplies across several districts. Activists also engaged in cultural activism in Fardpur, combining artistic expressions with relief work to aid flood victims.
Arrests in July and August: Law enforcement agencies arrested over 800 individuals linked to riots and protests across various regions, including Dhaka and Chittagong, amidst a government crackdown. The arrests were related to charges of sedition, violence, and unrest associated with public protests and the quota reform movement, as reported by the Rapid Action Battalion and other police entities. There was a major nationwide crackdown in Bangladesh resulting in the arrest of 60 individuals, including high-profile politicians, in connection to violent protests against the Sheikh Hasina regime. Additionally, 63 opposition student leaders were detained and later released following their involvement in protests, and a former Prime Minister’s resignation preceded the arrest of several politicians attempting to flee to India amid allegations of political misconduct. The arrest of a former Information Minister and a student leader attempting to cross into India amidst border tensions also drew notable media coverage.
Censorship in July and August: The Bangladesh government imposed a blackout on mobile and broadband internet services for six days and subsequently blocked social media networks like Facebook, YouTube, and WhatsApp. An executive order led to a ban on the political party Jamaat-e-Islami. The Dhaka Metropolitan Police prohibited all meetings and rallies in the capital. Additionally, journalists faced entry bans at the Bangladesh Bank, affecting their reporting capabilities on financial matters. The government of Bangladesh banned Jamaat-e-Islami and its student organizations due to their alleged involvement in violence and misuse of religion for political purposes. The High Court ordered a seven-day shutdown of television broadcasts, affecting media freedom across the country. Additionally, the government prohibited rallies around key sites in Dhaka during ongoing protests and reportedly restricted internet access, with authorities taking measures against those imposing such closures. Several newspapers were also shut down, allegedly linked to directives from Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Corruption in June and August: Corruption investigations were conducted in Bangladesh involving former Chief of Police Benjir Ahmed, who, along with his family, faced charges related to illegal wealth and asset accumulation. An anti-corruption probe in Gazipur revealed extensive land occupation by factories, implicating influential organizations and individuals in resource misuse. Additionally, Tarek Rahman and BNP leaders were scrutinized for allegations of money smuggling and activities that destabilized the country. Investigations in Bangladesh have focused on a massive financial scandal involving the embezzlement of 92,226 million dollars through manipulation within Bangladesh Bank, as well as on a $1.7 billion corruption scandal connected to coal-based electricity projects implicating former top officials. Allegations have been made against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her family regarding a $5 billion bribe in the Suppur Nuclear Power Center project, and separate accusations have been lodged against Salman F. Rahman concerning financial fraud within the Beximco group. Additionally, an investigation into the mismanagement of funds in the energy sector has implicated former officials.
Defamation Cases in August: Tarek Rahman, the vice president of a political party, had a defamation case dismissed by the court. Additionally, H.M. Shamsuddin Chaudhik, President of the Workers Party, faced defamation charges for allegedly insulting the Prime Minister, with involvement from Rashed Khan Menon and Hassanul Haque Inu in the related controversy. The Supreme Court also addressed other defamation charges, indicating the judicial authorities’ role in handling political defamation.
Disaster in June and August: Severe flooding and landslides in Sylhet affected over two million people and caused widespread damage to homes, infrastructure, and agriculture, compounded by heavy rains across the region. Additionally, Bangladesh reported over 19,000 annual deaths from severe air pollution, constituting a significant public health issue that is worsened by inadequate sanitation and lack of access to clean water. Bangladesh experienced severe flooding, described as the worst in 34 years, affecting over 56 million people, resulting in more than 52 fatalities, and causing widespread destruction of homes, infrastructure, and agriculture. Additionally, Bangladesh faced a dengue fever outbreak, leading to numerous hospitalizations and hundreds of new cases being reported daily, raising significant public health concerns.
Legal Actions in June, July and August: Former police adviser Benjir Ahmed and his family in Bangladesh were scrutinized by the Anti-corruption Commission, resulting in a court order to confiscate their properties and assets in Dhaka due to serious corruption allegations. In a separate case, Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus faced new legal challenges as a Dhaka Special Court pressed charges against him and others for alleged fraud and trafficking linked to activities involving rural telecom workers. The High Court in Bangladesh modified the death penalty verdict of serial killer Keller Rasu Khakhon to life imprisonment for him and two others, marking a significant judicial intervention. Additionally, the mobile court in Dhaka’s North City Corporation imposed substantial fines on residential owners for failing to comply with sanitation standards, indicating the government’s efforts to enforce public health regulations. Former political figures in Bangladesh, including a former Prime Minister, faced numerous legal actions involving charges of murder and genocide, indicative of ongoing political tensions and scrutiny of past government actions. Several officials, such as a former Prime Minister and other political figures, were arrested in connection with a high-profile murder case. Additionally, high-ranking officials, including the Home Minister, were scrutinized by financial authorities with their bank accounts frozen as part of an anti-corruption crackdown. The International Crimes Tribunal also brought charges of genocide and crimes against humanity against various political figures to address historical violence and human rights concerns.
Legal Changes in June and August: The Bangladesh High Court ruled to cancel the quotas in public employment, removing the first and second independence quotas, to ensure a more merit-based recruitment process. Additionally, the Bangladeshi government lifted certain visa restrictions for its citizens, particularly benefiting those seeking family or employment-related transits in the Gulf region. The High Court in Bangladesh ruled in favor of constitutional amendments made on June 30, 2011, which included recognizing the leader of Bangladesh’s liberation war. The government initiated a ban on Jamaat-e-Islami and its affiliated Islamic students’ camp, as announced by the Ministry of Interior. The Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission proposed the 2024 draft policy mandating that electricity and fuel prices be adjusted with public knowledge to enhance transparency in the energy sector. Amnesty International called for the repeal or amendment of Bangladesh’s cybersecurity laws due to concerns over potential human rights abuses. The Bangladesh Bank issued new regulations for banking and finance establishments, indicating increased regulatory oversight.
Security Mobilization in July and August: Security forces, including police, Rapid Action Battalion, and military personnel, were extensively deployed across Bangladesh, particularly in Dhaka, in response to widespread student-led protests demanding reform of the student quota system. The Border Guard Bangladesh was also deployed, with over 300 members stationed in Dhaka and other regions following violent clashes linked to the movement. Additionally, law enforcement closely monitored Dhaka University and the National Museum, implementing heightened security measures. In response to anti-coup demonstrations, military personnel were placed in strategic locations to maintain government stability and public order. Recent events in Bangladesh included a significant increase in the presence of the Bangladesh Army across the country, particularly in Dhaka, to protect foreign diplomats and government facilities following the resignation of the Sheikh Hasina government amid widespread civil unrest. Additionally, the Bangladesh Armed Forces, comprising the Army, Navy, and Air Force, extensively mobilized to provide rescue and relief operations in response to severe flooding, deploying approximately 77,000 personnel to assist affected regions. The Indian Border Security Force issued a high alert along the India-Bangladesh border due to increased tensions resulting from the political crisis and mass protests in Bangladesh.
Protests in July and August: In Bangladesh, students protested across Dhaka and in other cities, blocking streets and railways to demand reforms in government job quotas, which led to widespread disruptions and clashes with police, resulting in arrests and injuries. Sit-ins organized by the Bangladesh Nationalist Students Party also condemned attacks on students and demanded the restoration of quotas, leading to violent confrontations with law enforcement. Additionally, the ‘March for Justice’ campaign involving students and teachers advocated against the violence and disappearance of student activists, facing dispersal attempts by police and mass arrests. Protests in Bangladesh involved various sectors, including political, media, labor, educational, and religious communities. Demonstrators, notably students and workers, rallied against government leadership, press attacks, unpaid wages in the garment industry, and corruption in educational institutions. Additionally, community protests called for protection and justice for religious minorities following recent attacks.
Purge/Replace in August: Following the resignation of the Prime Minister amid mass protests, Bangladesh experienced extensive administrative changes, including the removal of local government officials, police department transfers, and reshuffling within the Bangladesh Bank. The judiciary saw significant resignations and transfers of officers after the Chief Justice’s resignation, causing notable disruptions within the legal system. Additionally, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs underwent a comprehensive restructuring, and the educational sector faced numerous resignations from universities, illustrating widespread changes during the political transition.
Raids in July: In Chittagong, a raid led to the seizure of seven tons of illegal goods and the arrest of 15 individuals, targeting smuggling operations. In Narayanganj, an anti-terrorism operation was carried out against a militant camp, and in Dhaka, police discovered explosives in a Mizan Tower flat amid security measures. Additionally, an anti-corruption raid in Dhaka’s Vakarta Union tackled illegal agricultural practices, and a mobile court in Jaypurhat enforced consumer protection laws by penalizing vendors for selling tobacco products to minors.
Lethal Violence in June, July and August: A tragic incident occurred during the holy pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia, resulting in the deaths of 21 Bangladeshi pilgrims, including 18 men and 3 women, with most fatalities happening in Mecca. In Bangladesh, violence in the Cox’s Bazar camp led to the death of a Rohingya man during an attack linked to Rohingya armed forces and community unrest. Additionally, clashes between motorcycles and engine-powered vehicles resulted in the deaths of three individuals and injuries to three others in areas like Rangpur, Brahmandur, and Shirazhpodha. Clashes between student protesters and police in Dhaka, Bangladesh, over political issues resulted in several deaths and numerous injuries, occurring in front of major education institutions. In Chittagong, Bangladesh, violent confrontations between students and law enforcement led to multiple fatalities and injuries, impacting the city’s educational and transportation sectors. These incidents contributed to the ongoing nationwide protests that have intensified over the past months. Protests and violent clashes across Bangladesh resulted in the deaths of at least 93 people, with significant unrest centered in Dhaka. The confrontations involved police, student organizations, and political entities, leading to attacks on state infrastructure, numerous injuries, and notable deaths, including those from the Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist League.
Non-lethal Violence in July and August: The quota reform movement in Bangladesh led to widespread violence, including attacks on police vehicles, destruction of infrastructure, and clashes resulting in numerous injuries among police officers, citizens, journalists, and students. Armed clashes involving political factions resulted in property damage across several districts, worsening the situation with increased political turmoil. The unrest affected critical infrastructure and public services, causing significant economic damage and raising concerns about security and press freedom as journalists faced targeted attacks. Following the resignation of the Prime Minister in Bangladesh, widespread violence took place, including the vandalization and looting of homes, businesses, and government facilities, resulting in numerous injuries. Media offices, including East West Media Group’s headquarters, were attacked, prompting calls for accountability regarding journalistic safety. In Dhaka, clashes between university students and police injured 35 students, while the Awami League’s leaders and facilities also faced attacks amidst ongoing political unrest. In the village of Khybabaira, local clashes led to injuries and property damage.
Forecasting
In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting on Protest activity in Q3 2024. Consistent with this forecast, we saw a large increase in reporting on Protests in July and August 2024.
Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting in the Civic Space Index in Q4 2024 and a jump in reporting on Non-lethal Violence in Q4 2024.
Pakistan
For Pakistan, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in July: A petition was filed challenging the government’s decision to allow the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to tap phones, which drew attention from the Pakistan Bar Council and was submitted to the Lahore and Islamabad High Courts. There was also an appeal to halt the deportation of undocumented Afghan refugees, which influenced public opinion on refugee policy. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and other political parties challenged Supreme Court verdicts regarding reserved seats, generating political debates on electoral fairness. Human rights activists in Hyderabad demanded reforms in the Tenancy Act to support farmers and agricultural workers. Rising electricity tariffs and inadequate power distribution have led to public discontent and mobilization against K-Electric during a severe heatwave.
Arrests in August: Authorities arrested a former Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence on charges related to corruption and misuse of authority. Additionally, multiple detentions were linked to PTI protests, including the apprehension of a PTI leader during a rally and various individuals connected to another PTI rally that led to roadblocks. Furthermore, a domestic terrorist leader from the banned Sindh Revolutionary Army was arrested as part of measures to address separatist violence.
Censorship in July and August: The federal government of Pakistan’s decision to ban the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and initiate treason proceedings against former leaders under Article 6 was widely condemned by political entities and rights organizations for threatening democratic principles. Additionally, trial implementation of a firewall, slowing down social media speeds, raised concerns over the impact on internet-based businesses and users, although the government stated it was temporary. Social media platform X remained banned due to compliance issues and alleged national security threats, causing legal and public opposition. Proposed social media bans during Muharram were rejected by the federal government, indicating government deliberations about media control in the context of national security. The government’s refusal to allow the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) to hold a rally due to denied permissions highlighted state intervention in political expression and assembly rights. The government in Pakistan tested and reportedly implemented an internet firewall to manage online content, leading to nationwide slowdowns. The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority blocked X (formerly Twitter) citing national security concerns and moved to regulate VPNs, impacting digital communication. Journalists were barred from covering a high-profile corruption case trial, with only a select few permitted, indicating tensions over press freedom. The Lahore High Court intervened when a political party was denied permission to hold a public gathering, highlighting issues with governmental restrictions on political assembly. Additionally, a senior journalist was expelled for allegedly conducting journalistic work on a visitor visa.
Disaster in August: Torrential monsoon rains in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa resulted in widespread destruction, claiming over 195 lives and injuring 362 people, with severe flooding causing disruptions in daily life and infrastructure damage. Cyclonic storm Asna significantly affected coastal areas in Sindh and Balochistan, causing heavy rains, high-speed winds, and school closures, leading to flooding and multiple casualties. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, persistent rainfalls led to flash floods and landslides, resulting in loss of lives and property in mountainous regions. Additionally, ongoing monsoon rains caused significant urban flooding and disruption in Karachi and other cities, prompting authorities to issue multiple alerts and precautionary measures.
Legal Changes in June: Pakistan’s National Assembly approved the federal budget for the fiscal year 2024-25, which includes significant tax reforms to boost revenue and meet International Monetary Fund requirements. The Punjab government enacted the Punjab Defamation Act 2024, prompting criticism and legal challenges concerning press freedom. Additionally, Punjab province amended a 116-year-old property law to facilitate transactions for overseas Pakistanis. The government proposed higher taxes on mobile phone imports to increase revenue, a measure included in the 2024-25 budget. Lastly, Pakistan introduced the “Civil Unmanned Aircraft Rules, 2024” to regulate drone usage.
Security Mobilization in June and July: Operation Azm-e-Istehkam was launched as a national counter-terrorism campaign in Pakistan, targeting hideouts in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Approximately 12,781 police officers were mobilized across Karachi to ensure security during Eid-ul-Azha, and Punjab Police also deployed over 3,000 officers at cattle markets for the same occasion. The Punjab Police were put on high alert, enhancing security measures at churches to prevent potential threats, and six platoons of the Frontier Constabulary were approved for deployment in Azad Jammu and Kashmir to bolster regional security. The federal government of Pakistan authorized the deployment of the Pakistan Army and Civil Armed Forces across the country during Muharram to maintain law and order. In Punjab, a large anti-smuggling operation led by the Pakistan Coast Guards resulted in the seizure of illegal substances, including meth, alcohol, and betel nut. Lahore implemented high-alert security measures, deploying additional police personnel and snipers at key locations ahead of Muharram. Islamabad and Rawalpindi faced significant traffic disruptions due to roadblocks placed in response to movements by Jamaat-e-Islami workers. In Sukkur district, over 7,000 police personnel were deployed to secure Muharram religious processions.
Protests in July: Nationwide protests in Pakistan were led by TTAP and PTI, demanding the release of political prisoners, including a former Prime Minister, highlighting political unrest. In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, thousands protested against lawlessness and potential military operations, indicating widespread security concerns. The Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association announced a nationwide strike over an advance tax, leading to fears of fuel shortages and public disruption. Similarly, the Pakistan Flour Mills Association initiated a strike against new withholding taxes, causing flour shortages and sparking concerns over a food crisis. Jamaat-e-Islami organized sit-ins against high electricity bills and new tax policies, seeking relief from economic pressures on citizens.
Lethal Violence in July: In Pakistan, tribal clashes over a land dispute in the Kurram District resulted in the deaths of 49 individuals and injuries to 184 others. A terrorist attack on the Bannu Cantonment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa led to the deaths of eight soldiers, while security forces killed thirteen attackers during an infiltration attempt. Additionally, a remote-controlled bomb explosion in Bajaur targeted a former senator, resulting in five fatalities, including the senator.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Indonesia
For Indonesia, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in July and August: The Corruption Eradication Commission in Indonesia arrested a former suspect North Maluku Governor and another individual for alleged bribery. In Jakarta, a major drug bust resulted in the arrest of 29 people involved in online gambling. In Karo, North Sumatra, police arrested suspects in an arson case that killed a journalist and his family members. The Metro Jaya Police arrested 70 individuals in a chicken gambling raid on the Legok Highway in West Java. In South Sulawesi, police arrested several individuals involved in online sex work and trafficking during raids in Makassar. Several notable arrests were reported in Indonesia. On August 22, 2024, Jakarta police arrested 301 demonstrators during a protest against the Pilkada bill and two public legal assistants at the House of Parliament. Earlier in August, 16 Nigerian nationals were apprehended for residency and scam violations, while the Special Detachment 88 Antiterror Polri detained two individuals in West Jakarta for alleged ties to ISIS. Additionally, an individual was arrested for domestic violence in a South Jakarta hotel.
Censorship in June: The government of Indonesia blocked 5,000 accounts related to online gambling through the Ministry of Coordinators of Politics, Law and Human Rights. The Southeast Asia Freedom of Expression Network (Safenet) criticized the Ministry of Communications and Information for its approach to controlling pornography content on social media platforms like X (Twitter), expressing concerns over potential overreach. Additionally, recommendations to block content and slow internet access were viewed as violations of digital rights. Lastly, YouTube implemented a policy change in Indonesia to restrict access to videos on firearm manipulation and assembly to users aged 18 and above.
Corruption in July and August: The former Minister of Agriculture was sentenced to 10 years in prison for corruption-related charges involving Rp 14 billion. Investigations into corruption in the lead commodity trade and the Health Safety Agency revealed potential financial irregularities amounting to trillions of rupiahs. Concerns about mismanagement and fraud emerged following the compromised development of a tsunami shelter in West Nusa. Additionally, a search by the KPK at the Directorate General Mineral and Coal highlighted an ongoing investigation into potential money laundering and corruption involving public officials. Several significant corruption cases were reported in Indonesia. A major case involved allegations against a figure in the tin commodity trade, potentially resulting in a Rp 300 trillion loss to the state. The Corruption Eradication Commission investigated alleged corruption in the River, Lake, and Indonesia Crossing Ferry that led to a Rp 1. 27 trillion loss. Another notable case involved bribery related to forest function alteration in Riau. Additionally, a former chief was sentenced to prison for corruption involving base tower projects, and a prominent individual faces trial for alleged corruption and money laundering linked to tin trade management.
Disaster in July: Indonesia experienced several natural disasters, including a landslide in East Tulabolo village, Gorontalo, resulting in the death of 23 people and affecting 173 individuals. Severe flooding also impacted Gorontalo, displacing over 7,000 people and submerging several villages. Additionally, Jakarta faced significant flooding due to continuous heavy rains, leading to neighborhood disruptions. In terms of volcanic activity, Mount Semeru in East Java and Mount Marapi in West Sumatra both experienced eruptions, affecting local air quality and posing risks to nearby residents.
Legal Actions in July and August: Former Minister of Agriculture received a 10-year prison sentence for alleged corruption, and the Court of Surabaya sentenced the son of a congressman to death for murder. In addition, the State Court of Bandung ordered the release of a suspect in a 2016 murder case, potentially impacting original convictions. A Supreme Court Justice was also sentenced in a corruption and money laundering case by the Central Jakarta State Court. Recent events in Indonesia included charges against Harvey Moeis at the State Court in Jakarta for corruption in tin commodities, leading to substantial financial losses for the nation. The Mayor of Semarang and her husband were investigated by the Corruption Eradication Commission for alleged corruption in educational service projects. The Jakarta State Order Court invalidated the appointment of Suhartoyo as the Constitutional Court Chairman, affecting the leadership of the institution. Additionally, the head of the Transport Ministry’s Directorate General of Railways was implicated in a corruption probe regarding train line project auctions, and the Jakarta State Court sentenced actor Ammar Zoni to three years in prison for drug abuse.
Legal Changes in June and August: Recent events in Indonesia include the revision of several laws, impacting key institutions such as the TNI Act, which extends the authority of the Indonesian National Army but raises questions about military and civilian roles. The Supreme Court altered the age requirement for regional head candidates, causing controversy. Additionally, the Mother and Child Welfare Act mandates workplace medical facilities for pregnant mothers, and new regulations permit religious organizations to manage mining activities, shifting away from previous procedures. Recent events in Indonesia included a significant legal change by the Constitutional Court, which amended the candidacy threshold for regional elections, allowing non-parliamentary parties to nominate candidates. This led to public protests and the eventual halting of proposed revisions to the Pilkada Act by the House. Additionally, there was national debate and public criticism surrounding the Ministry of Health’s introduction of regulations on adolescent contraceptive provision, as outlined in Government Rule 28, 2024, due to concerns about potential societal impacts.
Security Mobilization in July and August: A total of 15,000 police personnel were deployed across 24 districts and cities in South Sulawesi province to ensure safety during the Pilkada. In Jayapura, Papua, 4,000 combined TNI and Polri personnel were mobilized to secure President Joko Widodo’s work visit. Additionally, the Police organized 2,959 joint personnel to oversee the People’s Party celebrating the 78th Bhayangkara Day at the National Monument. To manage demonstrations by the Indonesian People’s Alliance of Palestine, 1,598 joint personnel were deployed in Jakarta Center. In preparation for Operation Patuh Jaya 2024, 2,938 joint personnel were tasked with maintaining traffic order in Jakarta over a two-week period. In Indonesia, a total of 5,150 TNI-Polri personnel were deployed to secure VVIP and VIP guests for the 79th anniversary celebration in the Nusantara Capital. Additionally, police mobilized 4,730 personnel for security during the upcoming visit of Pope Francis. A force of 4,716 joint personnel was also deployed in Jakarta to secure protests in front of multiple significant government buildings, and a similar number of personnel was prepared for anticipated Pilkada protests.
Protests in July and August: Thousands of workers from the Indonesian Union Confederation and the Labor Party protested against the Omnibus Law across major cities, demanding policy changes. JakLingko Microtrans drivers halted public transport services in Jakarta while demanding a wage mechanism. In Makassar, students clashed with police during a protest against a university uniform policy. Additionally, textile workers in Jakarta protested mass layoffs, demanding better job security. Protests occurred across Indonesia with thousands of students and civil society members demonstrating on August 22, 2024, against the revision of the Pilkada Act and alleged political overreach, with confrontations leading to arrests and the use of tear gas. In Jakarta, online drivers and couriers protested on August 29, 2024, seeking clearer legal recognition and improved welfare from ride-sharing companies, involving up to 1,000 participants and affecting traffic. Additionally, tens of thousands gathered in Indramayu on August 22, 2024, to support local political candidates, indicating strong community support and potential political changes.
Purge/Replace in July and August: The dismissal of the Chairman of the General Election Commission due to ethical violations and misconduct, followed by the appointment of an acting chairman, impacted the integrity and operations of Indonesia’s electoral commission ahead of elections. The resignation of the Mayor of Solo to potentially assume the role of Vice President indicated a shift in local political responsibilities. Additionally, a significant reshuffle in the Indonesian National Armed Forces and the State Intelligence Agency occurred with the rotation and promotion of 18 high-ranking officers, while the dismissal of numerous honorary teachers in Jakarta led to discussions on employment stability and educational governance. A cabinet reshuffle was conducted by President Joko Widodo on August 19, 2024, involving the appointment of new ministers and vice ministers, including the replacement of the Minister of Law and Human Rights. Bahlil Lahadalia was appointed as the new Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources as part of this reshuffle. Airlangga Hartarto resigned as General Chairman of the Golkar Party, affecting the party’s leadership dynamics. Additionally, there were multiple resignations from notable political figures in various parties, indicating internal changes ahead of the 2024 elections. A reshuffling of high-ranking police officers was also carried out by the Jakarta Metro Police Commissioner.
Raids in June and July: The Indonesian police and the anti-terror unit Densus 88 executed raids in West Java targeting suspected terrorists in Cikampek and Karawang, which resulted in arrests and potential threats being uncovered. In Jakarta, a police operation against a fake money operation resulted in the seizure of counterfeit money amounting to billions of rupiah and the arrest of five suspects. In North Sumatra, the Directorate of Bareskrim raided an ecstasy production facility, resulting in the arrest of six individuals involved in the illicit drug’s manufacture. In Dumai, Riau, authorities seized 20,000 ecstasy tablets and 5 kilograms of methamphetamine in a drug raid, impacting local trafficking networks. Multiple drug-related raids were conducted in different areas of Jakarta and West Java. In North Jakarta and West Jakarta, police targeted significant drug trading hubs and online gambling syndicates, seizing digital meth and converting hacked websites used for gambling. Additionally, the Corruption Eradication Commission carried out searches in Jakarta and Tangerang as part of an investigation into alleged corruption.
Lethal Violence in July: Three members of the Papua Merdeka Organization were shot by TNI forces in Papua after a clash with security forces. This incident is part of the ongoing violence and unrest in the region. In East Jakarta, a man murdered his wife in a fit of jealousy, highlighting an instance of domestic violence resulting in a fatality.
Non-lethal Violence in July: A woman in Tangerang suffered burns after being set on fire by her husband, drawing attention to domestic violence. In Papua, the Armed Criminal Group burned down a school, affecting children’s access to education. Clashes in Jakarta between student protestors and police resulted in the hospitalization of three students. Additionally, severe abuse cases involving two young children in North Jakarta raised concerns about child abuse in custodial settings. An alleged assault on a TV cameraman in Jakarta brought attention to violence against media personnel during politically charged events.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Albania
For Albania, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in July: In Albania, the Tirana police, in collaboration with international counterparts, arrested 19 individuals connected to a narcotics distribution network. The Special Prosecutor, with French authorities, dismantled an international drug trafficking network, resulting in 19 arrests in Albania and France. Former Health Minister Ilir Beqaj was arrested for alleged misuse of EU funds, linked to high-profile government corruption. In Spain, Leonard Luzi was arrested for organizing a failed assassination attempt in Albania, with extradition procedures initiated. Additionally, police in Lezha apprehended six individuals for allegedly operating a bar as a hub for prostitution and narcotics distribution.
Corruption in June and July: Albanian authorities seized €50 million in assets related to a money laundering operation in Tirana, involving multiple suspects. A corruption scandal emerged at the Oncological Hospital in Tirana, where medical professionals allegedly extorted cancer patients. Additionally, a border corruption scheme at Rinas Airport involved police officers facilitating illegal passage to EU countries. Former Prime Minister Sali Berisha lost his appeal in London regarding his non grata status due to alleged ties to organized crime. An investigation indicated €33 million were stolen from IPARD funds in Albania, implicating high-level figures in financial fraud. Several significant legal actions occurred in Albania. The Tirana prosecution seized assets from Micro Credit Albania and Finalia, uncovering a fraudulent micro-loan scheme. Rezart Taci was sent to trial for involvement in a VAT fraud scheme, and former Health Minister Ilir Beqaj was arrested over allegations of embezzling EU funds. Prosecutors also seized approximately €100 million in assets connected to organized criminal activities, and former Lushnje mayor Fatos Tushe was charged with falsification and concealment of asset declarations.
Disaster in July and August: Severe forest fires in Albania affected numerous regions, necessitating international aid due to strong winds and challenging terrain. Over 80 residents in Bulqiza were hospitalized with symptoms initially suspected to be linked to contaminated drinking water. An increase in COVID-19 cases was noted in Albania, primarily affecting younger populations with the presence of the Omicron subvariant. Multiple explosions occurred in Elbasan and Pogradec, causing significant material damage and critically injuring one individual. Several drownings were reported, including incidents involving a 13-year-old and a 61-year-old, raising concerns about water safety. Albania experienced a series of environmental and public health challenges, including massive forest fires in regions such as Bulqiza, Trunova Mountain, and Vlora, endangering communities and resulting in extensive damage despite firefighting efforts. The country also faced a West Nile Virus outbreak, resulting in three deaths and several infections, primarily affecting older populations. Additionally, heavy rains caused flooding and infrastructure damage in Debar County, while gas explosions in Korca and Pogradec led to injuries and property damage.
Legal Actions in July: Laert Haxhiu was extradited from Greece to Albania and faces life imprisonment for his involvement in the Lushnje massacre, with strict security measures in place. Tirana’s prosecution transferred the Oncology Hospital scandal case to SPAK, involving allegations of corruption and patient exploitation. The former director of Tirana Police, Erzen Brecani, was released from prison and placed under house arrest by the Special Court of Appeals after his detention for alleged involvement in organized crime. The Special Court sentenced Gjergj Cukali to 25 years for orchestrating a bombing against a businessman. Charges of document forgery and abuse of office were filed against former Himara mayor, George Goro, by the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor, who also sought security measures for property confiscation.
Legal Changes in July: Amendments to the Electoral Code in Albania were approved by the parliament to enhance gender representation, ensuring that one of every three candidates on winning lists are women. The Albanian Parliament also unanimously passed a draft declaration seeking the abolition of the outdated war law with Greece. Additionally, Albania is set to establish a Defence Industry Agency to regulate its arms trade and develop military technologies. A new bill aimed at real estate re-evaluation was introduced, proposing a lower tax rate and formalizing asset values. Furthermore, the Albanian government enforced a ban on importing live animals from Greece, Turkey, and Romania to protect its agriculture.
Security Mobilization in July and August: The Albanian police conducted a comprehensive operation, called “Clean Alpe and Pure Territorial,” to combat narcotic plant cultivation in northern Albania, resulting in the destruction of over 160,000 narcotic seedlings. The establishment of the National Emergency Intervention Corps aimed to enhance road safety and increase emergency response capabilities within the country. Additionally, a cross-border operation with Montenegro, referred to as “Bjeshkett,” led to the destruction of 11,358 narcotic plants, demonstrating regional cooperation in addressing drug cultivation near the border. Lastly, the Tirana police implemented road closures during an opposition-led national protest to maintain public order. A high-impact security operation was conducted in Albania when the FAS unit surrounded a hotel in the Cold Water area, deploying police forces and blocking roads to capture two wanted individuals. In response to widespread fire emergencies, 65 Armed Forces personnel and 40 firefighters were mobilized to protect the Finic municipality and the Archaeological Park of Butrint. In the Kruja district, increased police presence involved setting up roadblocks supported by Eagle teams to prevent criminal activities. During the annual Beer Fest in Korca, road police enforced vehicle traffic restrictions, which were repeated for the Beer Party, impacting local transit to ensure security.
Protests in June and July: Protests were held in Albania by the Democratic Party and opposition figures against the government, with incidents of violence such as setting tires on fire and throwing Molotov cocktails, resulting in confrontations with the police. Additionally, the Alliance for Theatre Protection and taxi drivers also protested separately in Tirana, with the former accusing the government of neglecting cultural interests, and the latter highlighting issues affecting their services. These events were accompanied by anti-government protests inspired by international media coverage and opposition demonstrations aimed at addressing corruption and political change. The Democratic Party led a protest addressing government accountability and electoral issues, though it experienced low turnout. Residents of Kruja and Fushe-Kruja blocked traffic in protest of inadequate access roads, while farmers in Maliqi protested the lack of markets for their produce. Additionally, there were calls for the resignation of Tirana’s mayor amidst accusations of corruption, and Shkodra citizens protested the construction of a new tower, fearing it would harm the city’s identity.
Purge/Replace in July: Recent events in Albania included significant cabinet changes proposed by the Prime Minister, which were approved despite opposition backlash. The president decreed the dismissal of several prosecutors, indicating ongoing efforts to address corruption and mismanagement in the judiciary. Additionally, the Central Election Commission dismissed the Mayor of Himara, which led to criticism from Greece, and there were diplomatic shifts with new ambassadorial appointments to South American countries.
Lethal Violence in August: An American teacher in Tirana was involved in a domestic crime that resulted in his death and the death of his family. In Velipoja, two individuals were fatally shot by hotel owners following a conflict, and in Konispol, a domestic dispute ended in the deaths of a couple, involving inter-family violence. Additionally, a public assassination occurred in Shkodra, possibly linked to organized crime, and a violent murder in Pogradec drew public attention.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Kazakhstan
For Kazakhstan, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in June: A petition in Kazakhstan advocating for a ban on the “advocacy of LGBT” gathered significant support, leading the Ministry of Culture and Information to establish a working group for further consideration. Another petition successfully called for reverting to a previous time zone, prompting the Ministry of Trade and Integration to form a working group to discuss this issue. Additionally, there was a proposal to increase the signature threshold for online petitions to 50,000 before government review and a petition concerning the utilization of a utilitarian fee, which the Ministry of Industry plans to review with an emphasis on transparency.
Defamation Cases in June: A libel trial in Kazakhstan, involving Aliya Nazarbaeva against businessmen Nurlan Bimurzin and Medgat Kaliev, was dismissed by the court. The case centered on alleged slander and highlighted the challenges of proving defamation claims involving political families in the region.
Disaster in July and August: Floods in Zhambala Province on July 7th affected numerous homes and infrastructure, prompting the government to implement housing and financial assistance measures. An explosion at the YDD Corporation Ferrosmel plant in Karaganda on July 20th resulted in fatalities and injuries, raising safety concerns in industrial sectors. Additionally, the Kazakhstan government allocated significant funds for infrastructure rehabilitation following severe spring floods in multiple regions. The country also faced a high number of drowning incidents during the bathing season and a measles outbreak in Almaty, both highlighting pressing public health and safety issues. Kazakhstan experienced a measles outbreak with 2,247 cases, primarily affecting children under 14, marking a significant rise from the previous year. Severe storms and heightened fire risks impacted multiple regions, with firefighting efforts concentrated on incidents such as a 700 square meter fire in Balkhash. The country reported 1,290 coronavirus cases since early 2024 without any fatalities, and 2,616 houses were under demolition or renovation, affecting over 10,500 people who have filed for damages.
Legal Changes in June: Recent events in Kazakhstan included the signing of the Mass Media Act by the President, which expanded the definition of mass media to include internet resources. Amendments to the Gambling Act were introduced to prohibit external advertising of bookie offices. Additionally, a law was approved to establish the status of regional commissioners for child rights, and a temporary ban on sugar export was enacted to stabilize the domestic market.
Lethal Violence in June: The body of a 13-year-old boy was discovered in the Ilek River in Aktobe after he had been missing for a few days, leading to extensive search operations. In Pavlodar, a man was fatally attacked in a public incident captured on social media. A member of the emergency services died during a training exercise at a military unit in the Aigoz garrison, raising concerns over safety protocols. Additionally, a 21-year-old died in a shooting that also resulted in other individuals being hospitalized.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Kosovo
For Kosovo, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Arrests in June: Kosovo Intelligence Agency and the Kosovo Police apprehended individuals suspected of spying for the Serbian Intelligence Agency, including two Kosovo Albanians in Ferizaj and a former Kosovo police officer. Additionally, convictions were secured against participants in violent protests against ethnic Albanian mayors in northern Kosovo, and former Serbian secret service operatives were detained for alleged espionage and destabilization efforts within the country.
Censorship in June: The Kosovo government banned the use of TikTok in state institutions on June 28, citing concerns over potential cyber threats and the need to protect the state’s information infrastructure. Additionally, journalists in Kosovo faced challenges in accessing information from the Kosovo Specialist Chambers and local courts due to procedural barriers and limited transparency, which affected the reporting of war crime trials.
Corruption in June and July: Charges were filed against 23 individuals in Kosovo connected to an organized criminal group suspected of fraud, money laundering, and other criminal activities related to a Call Center. The government of Kosovo faced international criticism from Western powers, the EU, and OSCE for land expropriations in Serb-populated areas, which allegedly violated Kosovo’s own laws. Additionally, multiple corruption cases were addressed, including an indictment for accessing computer systems and money laundering, highlighting efforts by the Special Prosecutor to combat cybercrime and financial fraud. Concerns were raised about the financing of mosques in Kosovo linked to Serbia, suggesting potential foreign influence through suspicious investments. Several incidents of corruption were reported in Kosovo. An investigation uncovered a scheme involving 23 individuals engaged in illegal activities through cyber trade. A police operation in Pec and Pristina led to the arrest of seven Ministry of Infrastructure officials for bribery linked to driver’s license issuance. There was also an illegal acquisition of government assets, including a villa, valued at over three million euros. Furthermore, two Constitutional Court officials were arrested for hiding court mandates, and a woman was arrested for fraudulent visa services.
Defamation Cases in June: In Kosovo, the Parliament Speaker filed a defamation case against a political spokeswoman at the Pristina Foundation Court, seeking compensation for alleged libelous statements. Additionally, the Prishtina Basic Court found an individual guilty of intimidating a journalist, resulting in a fine.
Disaster in July and August: Recent events in Kosovo included severe storms that caused heavy rainfall, lightning strikes, strong winds, material damage, power outages, and fires, though there were no reports of fatalities. Additionally, the National Institute of Public Health in Kosovo reported 19 new COVID-19 cases in July, affecting individuals aged 0-79. A lightning strike in Prevalla, Kosovo, resulted in the death of a 64-year-old woman and injuries to four others.
Legal Actions in July: In Kosovo, the trial of former President Hashim Thaci and other ex-KLA leaders continued at the Specialized Chambers in The Hague, with charges relating to war crimes from the Kosovo War era. The Special Court in Kosovo sentenced former KLA member Pjeter Shala to 18 years in prison for war crimes associated with a detention center in Albania. Additionally, the Constitutional Court in Pristina upheld severe sentences in the murder cases of Marigona Osmani and Lulzim Feyzullahu, addressing issues of gender-based violence and perceived sentencing leniency, respectively.
Legal Changes in June and July: The Constitutional Court of Kosovo invalidated the Law for the State Bureau for Verification and Confiscating of Unjustified Property, citing its unconstitutionality. The Kosovo Assembly made amendments to the Law on Public Officials, the Independent Media Commission, and the Kosovo Prosecutorial Council, diverging from EU recommendations and potentially affecting alignment with European standards. Additionally, a legal change was enacted that allows Albanians in Kosovo, Northern Macedonia, and Montenegro to acquire Albanian citizenship more easily by removing the language exam requirement. Kosovo also developed pioneering regional legislation against childicide and initiated a reform of the social assistance scheme, supported by the World Bank, to promote employment and social equity. The European Union Council decided to remove visa restrictions for Kosovo Serb citizens holding Serbian passports issued by Serbia’s Coordination Directorate, equalizing the visa regime across the Western Balkans. Kosovo’s Assembly adopted a law on the Independent Media Commission, subjecting online media to state licensing and control, which drew criticism from international organizations and the opposition. Additionally, the Kosovo government passed amendments to the Law on the Kosovo Security Force to regulate its deployment in international operations, and it fine-tuned domestic violence legislation to align with the Istanbul Convention.
Security Mobilization in August: In Kosovo, additional KFOR troops were deployed at the Ibër Bridge in Mitrovica following the closure of Serbian parallel institutions by the Kosovo government, drawing international reactions due to its regional implications. KFOR and NATO forces, including units from Germany and Bulgaria, increased patrols along the Kosovo-Serbia border to maintain stability. Furthermore, over 100 American soldiers from the Idaho National Guard were deployed to Kosovo for an 11-month NATO peacekeeping mission. Kosovo Police conducted an operation to close illegal Serbian-established municipal objects in northern Kosovo, which led to criticism from international entities due to concerns about increasing tensions.
Protests in August: Protests occurred in northern Mitrovica as Serbs opposed the Kosovo government’s plan to reopen the Ibër Bridge, with the situation remaining peaceful. Miners at the Trepca complex ended a nearly three-month strike over unpaid salaries after the government allocated funds to meet their demands. In Pasjan/Pasjane, Serbs protested the arrest of five individuals on war crime charges, emphasizing their belief in the innocence of the accused. In Gracanica, a protest was held against domestic violence, calling for stronger actions to address the issue.
Raids in June and August: Police and security forces in Kosovo conducted a series of operations, including the arrest of two individuals suspected of cooperating with the Serbian BIA, part of efforts to counter foreign espionage. Additional raids dismantled illegal surveillance equipment in northern Kosovo and seized unauthorized cameras, addressing security concerns. Separate enforcement actions resulted in the temporary closure of businesses for regulatory violations and uncovered a cannabis cultivation operation, reflecting ongoing initiatives to combat illegal activities. The Kosovo police conducted an operation to close nine Serbian Post branches in northern Kosovo, which were reportedly operating illegally according to Kosovo’s Regulatory Authority. The Kosovo government, with police assistance, also shut down five parallel institutions in northern Kosovo that were allegedly operating under Serbia’s directives, violating Kosovo’s constitution and laws. Additionally, in the village of Joshevik, Banjska, Kosovo police conducted a raid on a house, seizing weapons including a rifle, and correctional officers at the Dubrava Correcting Centre foiled a smuggling attempt involving mobile phones and adaptors.
Lethal Violence in July: A fugitive from Kosovo was killed by Serbian police in Serbia after being suspected of murdering a Serbian police officer and injuring another, which increased tensions between Kosovo and Serbia. In Pristina, a minor was arrested after allegedly killing his brother with a knife during a dispute.
Non-lethal Violence in August: There was a controversial incident at Skopje Airport involving President Vjosa Osmani, which led to diplomatic reactions between Kosovo and Northern Macedonia. In Fushë Kosovo, a woman was shot by her husband, resulting in her hospitalization and his subsequent arrest. A violent altercation in Pristina’s Veternik neighbourhood left three individuals injured and is under police investigation. A fire in Podujevo destroyed 17 hectares of land, prompting an official investigation. Multiple violent clashes occurred in Ferizaj, involving police intervention.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Macedonia
For Macedonia, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in June: Multiple environmental clean-up initiatives were carried out in Macedonia, focusing on waste collection and environmental management. These included the largest environmental action in the Western Balkans, GENIRAKA WEEKEND, and several volunteer efforts at Lake Ohrid by various organizations, which engaged divers and volunteers in cleaning the lake and its coastline. Additionally, a volunteer effort at JP Laika Skopje focused on enhancing conditions for dogs and improving environmental management.
Corruption in July and August: These cases include allegations against MEPSO for suspicious transactions amounting to €14 million, a high-profile investigation into the former Struga Mayor for improperly procuring vehicles, and malpractice in COVID-19 vaccine procurement involving high-level officials. Additionally, Drin Ahmeti faces charges for abusing mining concessions, and the former director of the Toxicology Clinic is investigated for causing financial damages. The events relevant to Macedonia include allegations of corruption related to a rail link project towards Bulgaria, where companies attempted to influence the bidding process. Directors of public companies in Skopje City were dismissed due to irregularities and corruption as part of an anti-corruption initiative. The Supreme Court overturned a decision in an extradition case, which highlighted mishandling by state institutions. Additionally, a Supreme Judge was accused of accepting bribes, intensifying political controversy, while an investigation was initiated into the misuse of state property by a Parliamentary Speaker.
Disaster in August: Macedonia experienced several natural and public health challenges, including rampant wildfires affecting areas like Macedonian Brod and Galicica National Park, with coordinated response efforts from local and international teams. Significant flooding occurred in cities such as Kicevo and Tetovo, revealing drainage system vulnerabilities and causing infrastructure damage. Public health concerns arose with a resurgence of COVID-19, reporting 250 new cases in July 2023, and the emergence of three West Nile virus cases, which prompted calls for increased health and mosquito control measures. Additionally, a minor earthquake was recorded in the Delchevo-Berovo area, with no reported damage or injuries.
Legal Actions in August: The escape and legal proceedings concerning a former KLA member highlighted interstate tension involving North Macedonia and Serbia. The Skopje Basic Public Prosecutor’s Office appealed the verdict for the Laskarci bus crash, advocating for harsher penalties for company officials due to the incident’s severe consequences. A criminal charge against the head of security for Parliament Speaker Afrim Gashi emerged from a diplomatic incident at Skopje airport, while systemic corruption in the judiciary and allegations of misuse of state vehicles by officials pointed to ongoing concerns about corruption and political accountability in North Macedonia.
Security Mobilization in July: There have been reports of a collaboration between Macedonia and Serbia, with Serbian police scheduled to begin joint patrols in Northern Macedonia, particularly during the tourist season. The European Commission mobilized aid to assist Macedonia and Bulgaria in battling forest fires through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, deploying helicopters and aircraft for environmental crisis management. In Skopje, security operations intensified with increased police measures for traffic control and the removal of vehicles violating regulations. An operation in the Pollog region targeted driving under the influence, resulting in immediate sanctions to improve road safety. Additionally, the RSM Army Special Forces Battalion conducted volunteer activities as part of preparation for a tactical-tech exercise.
Purge/Replace in June: In Macedonia, the President dismissed the head of the Intelligence Agency and appointed a new replacement, indicating a shift in national security leadership. The Health Minister implemented changes in the Skopje Clinical Center, dismissing several directors to address alleged inefficiencies. Additionally, the medical director of the Cardiology Clinic was replaced to address professional failures. The President also signed a law for a ministerial reshuffle, leading to reorganized state administration bodies. Tomislav Tuntev resigned as Director of the Civil Aviation Agency for personal reasons, a move with limited broader impact.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Serbia
For Serbia, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in June, July and August: Recent events in Serbia included widespread opposition to the Rio Tinto lithium mine project in the Jadar Valley due to environmental concerns, with over 240,000 people signing a petition against it. Additionally, 16 civil society organizations requested an investigation into the alleged illegal processing of voter data by government parties, reflecting scrutiny over data privacy. The European Movement in Serbia called on authorities to prevent the extradition of a Belarusian activist, citing concerns for human rights, while the Freedom and Justice Party initiated a petition to address pollution concerns from a local battery factory in Sombor. Moreover, activists and local communities challenged the waste processing plant Junirisk in Belgrade over fears of illegal hazardous waste storage. Recent events in Serbia included widespread opposition to lithium mining, with activists and citizens demanding a permanent ban on mining activities through protests and legal actions. Additionally, civil society organizations condemned the government’s decision to ban the “Mirdita, Good Day” festival, which aimed to promote Serbian-Albanian friendship, calling for protection of assembly rights. Environmental groups urged the cessation of financial support for wood biomass energy projects in Serbia due to environmental concerns, while concerns were raised regarding the freedom of movement for Kurdish activist Ecevit Piroglu and the detention of Belarusian journalist Andrej Gnyot, both facing judicial challenges in Serbia. Protests against lithium mining and the Jadar Valley project in Serbia continued, with activists advocating for environmental protection and the release of detained protesters. Environmental concerns were also raised regarding the “Belgrade Waterfront” project, with significant public opposition against the demolition of the Belgrade Fairgrounds. Additionally, the extradition case of a Belarusian activist and the departure of a Kurdish activist highlighted issues related to asylum and human rights within the country.
Arrests in June, July and August: In Serbia, five employees of the Padinska Skela prison in Belgrade were arrested on suspicion of being involved in the death of a 74-year-old inmate. Additionally, an individual from Bosnia and Herzegovina was detained and deported from Belgrade’s Nikola Tesla Airport after being labeled a “security threat.” Recent events in Serbia included the arrest of seven environmental activists from the “We Won’t Give Up Jadar” organization during a protest against Rio Tinto’s Jadar Project. An accused member of the Balkan Cartel was placed under house arrest amid an investigation into large-scale cocaine smuggling. Additionally, a former state secretary in the Ministry of Education was arrested for influence peddling, and three engineers were detained for allegedly leaking confidential military data to a foreign entity. Activists in Serbia were arrested during protests against lithium mining, with the legal actions against them perceived as intimidation and political repression. Five Serbs were arrested near Gjilan for alleged war crimes, causing tensions between Serbian and Kosovo authorities. Additionally, the arrest of a Croatian spy in Belgrade and the detainment of Croatian singer Severina Vučković at the Serbian border contributed to diplomatic tensions between Serbia and Croatia. An environmental activist was also arrested for inciting violence at a protest in Užice, reflecting increased governmental scrutiny of protests.
Censorship in June and July: Serbian authorities banned the “Mirdita, Good Day” festival aimed at promoting relations with Kosovo, citing security concerns. A Russian-Israeli journalist was denied entry into Serbia, reportedly due to national security risks linked to external influences. Additionally, Una TV’s accounts were blocked due to connections with a sanctioned political figure, and a verdict against investigative journalism portal KRIK was upheld, indicating potential judicial misuse. Furthermore, the cancellation of cooperation with a journalist at Radio-Television of Vojvodina suggested administrative challenges within media institutions. Censorship of information about citizen protests against lithium mining was implemented by Serbian state TV channels, which were accused of ignoring significant social demonstrations. Serbian authorities banned the Miredita, Good Day! festival and Kikinda Short festival, leading to accusations of repressing artistic freedom. Independent media outlets in Serbia, such as N1 Television and KTV Zrenjanin, faced threats and pressures from government entities, raising concerns about media freedom. Additionally, Serbia banned certain foreign activists, artists, and journalists from entering the country, drawing criticism from international organizations.
Corruption in June, July and August: A major corruption case in Serbia led to the arrest of an individual from Subotica for tax evasion, which allegedly caused significant damage to the state budget. An influential member of the Serbian Progressive Party was reported to have acquired multiple luxury properties, raising questions about potential unreported wealth. Additionally, an assistant to the Mayor of Leskovac was arrested for allegedly misusing city funds, prompting calls for the mayor’s resignation. In Pirot, four individuals were accused of embezzlement in a procurement scandal involving cultural installations. Furthermore, the Serbian Progressive Party faced allegations of vote buying and misconduct in Zrenjanin. Several significant events related to Serbia were reported. An organized criminal group from Nis was arrested for money laundering and other offenses, amassing a profit of 13 million euros used for luxury purchases and real estate. Another operation resulted in the arrest of individuals laundering approximately two billion dinars through phantom companies. Abuses in a railway track construction project led to illegal profits of 7. 5 million dollars, resulting in indictments. Additionally, a Serbian citizen was involved in a bribery investigation led by Croatian authorities at a border crossing. Police in Užice arrested a company official for allegedly not recording income from vehicle spare parts servicing, resulting in a loss of over 203 million dinars to the state budget between 2019 and 2022. Several people were arrested, including employees of “Elektroprivreda Srbije,” for allegedly redirecting funds from electricity bills to personal accounts. Additionally, a significant fraud case involving tax evasion and money laundering led to the arrest of two individuals accused of causing a tax loss of over 8 million dinars and illegal profits exceeding 20 million dinars.
Defamation Cases in June: In Serbia, Milan Radonjić and Miroslav Kurak, former members of the State Security Department, sued the Slavko Ćuruvija Foundation for a statement disagreeing with their acquittal in the murder case of journalist Slavko Ćuruvija, seeking compensation for damage to their honor and reputation. Additionally, Milan Radonjić and Ratko Romić filed defamation lawsuits against a political party vice-president, alleging damage to their dignity, honor, and reputation due to her public statements regarding their acquittal.
Disaster in July and August: Severe storms led to extensive damage, including flooding in Belgrade, affecting transportation and causing power outages. A significant heat wave with temperatures reaching 40 degrees Celsius also impacted daily life, increasing health risks and electricity consumption. Additionally, a van carrying migrants overturned on a highway, resulting in injuries and subsequent treatment for the passengers. Firefighters managed more than 1,000 open-air fires within a month, posing risks although largely contained quickly. Moreover, issues with contaminated water disrupted the water supply in several areas of Belgrade, affecting local communities. Forest fires on Mount Vidlić in Serbia affected over 2,500 hectares, prompting a state of emergency and the deployment of more than 500 personnel to manage the situation. A heat wave in Serbia, with temperatures reaching up to 40 degrees Celsius, led to a public health crisis with emergency services overwhelmed by incidents related to extreme heat. Additionally, a fire in Novi Sad resulted in the deaths of six family members, including four children, with the cause suspected to be an electric scooter.
Legal Actions in June and July: The High Court in Belgrade ruled to extradite Belarusian journalist and opposition activist Andrej Gnjot to Belarus, despite concerns about the political motivation behind the charges. The Slavko Ćuruvija Foundation faced a lawsuit from former State Security Department members after they were acquitted of murder charges, highlighting tensions between state entities and independent media in Serbia. Additionally, the trial of Veljko Belivuk’s criminal group resumed due to a change in the court panel’s presidency, continuing the legal proceedings against organized crime in Serbia. Serbian authorities released Ecevit Piroglu, a Kurdish activist, after three years of detention amidst complications related to Turkey’s extradition request. The High Court in Belgrade convicted the owner of a shooting range connected to a tragic school shooting, reflecting legal ramifications surrounding the incident. The Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office in Belgrade merged two significant criminal cases, “Jovanjica 1” and “Jovanjica 2,” into a single trial, emphasizing the handling of organized crime allegations. Additionally, Serbia’s Constitutional Court declared the government’s decision to halt the lithium mine project unconstitutional, a decision that prompted substantial public discourse on environmental and legal issues.
Security Mobilization in July and August: Security measures were heightened in Serbia with police deployment around the Palace of Serbia during a meeting involving President Aleksandar Vučić and international officials, as well as increased security for the “Exit” music festival in Novi Sad following a recent terrorist attack. Serbian emergency services were mobilized to address forest fires spreading to parts of the country, while military provisions of drinking water tanks were sent to Pranjani and nearby villages due to drought, highlighting national efforts in managing both natural disasters and environmental crises. In Serbia, security measures were heightened in Novi Sad in anticipation of visits by French and Serbian leaders, with increased police presence reported. A police operation in Belgrade saw officers dispersing protesters blocking Prokop station. Additionally, Hungarian police were deployed to the Serbian border to assist in controlling illegal migration into the European Union, illustrating international collaboration in border security efforts.
Protests in August: Protests against lithium mining occurred in various cities across Serbia, including Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Kragujevac, Pančevo, and Topola. Thousands of citizens participated in these demonstrations, expressing strong opposition to the planned Rio Tinto lithium mine due to environmental concerns. Additionally, protests against the detention of peaceful demonstrators took place, indicating public resistance to governmental actions related to environmental activism.
Purge/Replace in August: The Serbian Prime Minister announced plans for a government reconstruction within six months, acknowledging underperforming ministers but did not provide immediate replacements. The Serbian government dismissed the director of Srbijašuma, an opponent of lithium mining, highlighting internal party tensions and potential environmental policy impacts. Several controversies arose, including demands for the resignation of Minister Milica Đurđević Stamenkovski over allegations of misrepresented educational qualifications, sparked discourse about ethics. Additionally, opposition councilor groups in Novi Sad called for the mayor’s resignation following water supply contamination, and a nurse whistleblower was dismissed at a health center in Vranje, raising questions about governance and whistleblower protections.
Raids in June and August: Recent events in Serbia included a raid by Kosovo police near Leposavic, where old police uniforms linked to Serbian groups were seized, and the forced shutdown of the Miredita, Dobar Dan festival by Serbian police amid protests. Additional reports highlighted issues of surveillance, with revelations about the state’s monitoring of political critics and the increased use of facial recognition technology. The eviction of a family in Belgrade also drew attention to tenant rights and legal enforcement concerns in the country. Activists in Serbia opposing Rio Tinto’s lithium mining faced police searches, likely as a form of intimidation related to their protest activities. Additionally, a sudden police search was conducted on an activist in Vršac, with her phone confiscated due to suspicions related to posts against Serbia’s constitutional order. The Serbian tax inspectorate also conducted an unannounced raid on the business of a public opponent of lithium mining, allegedly applying pressure through this action.
Lethal Violence in July and August: A Serbian border policeman was killed and another was seriously wounded in Loznica during a routine vehicle control, leading to a manhunt and the shooting of the attacker, an Albanian from Kosovo. In Topolnica near Majdanpek, a double murder occurred, after which the Special Anti-Terrorist Unit neutralized the suspect involved in the shooting that resulted in two deaths and one injury. Since the beginning of the year, 13 women have been murdered in Serbia, highlighting ongoing gender-based violence issues. Several significant events were reported in Serbia. A member of the Wahhabi movement, previously convicted of terrorism, was killed by the Serbian Special Anti-Terrorist Unit near Novi Pazar after firing at police during his arrest. Additionally, a concerning trend of minors being involved in lethal violence emerged, with four murders occurring over three months. The Serbian Commissariat for Refugees and Migration also highlighted the ongoing impact of Croatia’s “Operation Storm,” focusing on the deaths and displacement of many Serbs.
Non-lethal Violence in June: In Serbia, a Gendarmerie officer was shot with a crossbow in front of the Israeli embassy in Belgrade, prompting increased security and classifying the incident as a terrorist act. Schools across Serbia have experienced incidents of violence involving parents and students attacking teachers, leading to demands for systemic preventive measures. An attack on the home of a Democratic Party councilor in Kovačica and physical conflicts during the election period highlighted tensions, with reports of opposition members being assaulted and allegations of vote-buying. Additionally, there have been instances of aggression against healthcare workers, including attacks on an ambulance driver, prompting calls for legislative protection.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Timor Leste
For Timor Leste, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
- Disaster in July: A rabies outbreak affecting dogs was reported in four municipalities in Timor Leste, including Oecusse, Bobonaro, Covalima, and the capital Díli. This posed a risk to public health and required effective containment measures.
Forecasting
Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mali.