Deliverable 1

Formulating my Research question

Research Question: How do indicators of democratic strength affect the total amount of poltical violence in countries

Reason of Explanation: Political violence can significantly destabilize a government by weakening a country’s ability to maintain order and authority. It also chips away public trust as citizens lose confidence in their government’s ability to support and protect them justly, thus threatening the democratic process itself. By looking at the relationship between the indicators of democratic stability, such as Political Rights, how a country is rated based on the the Rule of Law Index, Government Debt, we can better understand what makes a country more at risk for violent political events. This information can also help strengthen democracies and create strategies that help counter act the effects of these environments so that these events are less likely to happen

Deliverable 2

Outcome Variable name: Political Violence Events (PolticalViolenceEvents)

Level of measurement: Interval

Explanation: While the Codebook didn’t specifially say what the measurement is, I assume it is simply the number of political violence events that occur in each country. I chose this as my outcome variable as I want to determine what effects the frequency of policital violence events in a country making the dependent variable of which I want to find the causes of.

Deliverable 3

Explanatory Variable 1.: Political Rights (fh_pr)

Level of measurement: Ordinal

Explanation: Countries with higher poltical rights such as voting can effect the happiness of the citizens and thus the number of political violence events. Citizens in countries with higher political rights would be able to actively excerise them in advocacy for change, such as voting, peaceful protests and ect. While those who live in countries with low political rights would feel no choice but to resort to political violence and terroristic political events to get their voice heard.

Explanatory Variable 2.: Rule of Law (rule_of_law)

Level of measurement: Ordinal

Explanation: Rule of law is an index that measures how well countries adhere to 8 factors: Constraints on Government Powers, Absence of corruption, Open Government, Fundamental Rights, Order and Security, Regulatory Enforcement, Civil Justice, and Criminal Justice. A higher Rule of Law index indicates better or higher approval in governance by their citizens, which effects the amount of political violence events. If the citizens of the country believe that their government is doing a good job, they are less likey to orgainze political events that become violent. While citizens who believe the latter are more likely to organize violent political events.

Explanatory Variable 3.: Government Debt (govt_debt)

Level of measurement: Interval

Explanation: This variable tells indicates how mcuh debt the central government of a country has. Central government debt is the total amount of outstanding borrowing by the central government of a country. This is also known as National Debt. The more debt a country owes, I belive the higher the taxes may be and that their citizens will be unhappier thus feeling the need to organize more political event that may be violent so that a change can occur.

My sources include:

Choi, S.-W. (2010). Fighting Terrorism through the Rule of Law? The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 54(6), 940–966. http://www.jstor.org/stable/25780761

Lacroix, J. (2022). Ballots instead of bullets? the effect of the Voting Rights Act on political violence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 21(2), 764–813. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac048

Raleigh, C., & Choi, H. J. (2016). Conflict Dynamics and Feedback: Explaining Change in Violence against Civilians within Conflicts. International Interactions, 43(5), 848–878. https://doi-org.ezaccess.libraries.psu.edu/10.1080/03050629.2017.1235271