Zona do Euro - Bank Lending Survey
Macro Research
Bank Lending Survey (BLS): Zona do Euro
Overview
Resumo do ECB:
In the October 2024 bank lending survey (BLS), euro area banks reported unchanged credit standards for loans or credit lines to enterprises in the third quarter of 2024 (net percentage of banks of 0%; see Overview table).This follows more than two years of successive tightening. While credit standards remained unchanged in net terms, risk perceptions were still reported as having a small tightening impact. A further tightening of credit standards was reported only in two small countries, while a small net easing was reported in Germany. The net percentage of banks was lower than in the previous quarter (3%) and than expected in the previous survey round (5%). Banks expect a renewed, albeit moderate, net tightening for the fourth quarter of 2024 (4%).
Banks reported a further net easing of credit standards for loans to households for house purchase, whereas a further net tightening was reported for consumer credit (net percentages of -3% and 6%; see Overview table). For housing loans, competition from other banks and banks’ cost of funds and balance sheet situation were the main drivers behind the net easing of credit standards, reported mostly by banks in France. By contrast, a small tightening impact came from risk perceptions and “other factors”, the latter related to tighter sustainability rules for residential real estate. The further net easing at the euro area level was driven solely by banks in France reporting a very strong easing; banks in Germany reported some net tightening and banks in all other euro area countries reported unchanged credit standards on housing loans. The net easing at the euro area level was somewhat more pronounced than banks had expected in the previous quarter (-1%). For credit standards on consumer credit, risk perceptions and banks’ risk tolerance were the main drivers of the net tightening. The tightening in credit standards for consumer credit was observed across the four largest euro area economies, exceeding the expectations by banks in the previous quarter (1%), and was around the historical average (5%). For the fourth quarter banks expect credit standards for housing loans to ease strongly (-12%), driven by banks in France, and credit standards for consumer credit to tighten slightly (3%).
Net demand for loans by firms increased moderately in the third quarter of 2024 (for the first time since the third quarter of 2022), while remaining weak overall (net percentage of 4%; see Overview table). The moderate increase in loan demand was reported as mainly driven by declining interest rates, with a muted contribution from fixed investment, after about two years of a negative impact from these factors. The aggregate picture masks substantial heterogeneity at the country level: while banks in Germany, Spain and France saw increases in loan demand, banks in Italy and eight of the other sixteen countries continued to report a net decrease in loan demand. For the fourth quarter banks expect loan demand to increase moderately further (4%).
Net demand for housing loans rebounded strongly, while consumer credit demand increased more moderately (net percentages of 39% and 8% respectively; see Overview table). The net increase in housing loan demand was mainly driven by the general level of interest rates and housing market prospects. This provides a further signal of recovery from the strong declines over the tightening cycle. The net increase was the highest since the second quarter of 2015 (42%), was above banks’ expectations in the previous quarter (26%) and broad based across euro area countries. It is directionally in line with the gradual strengthening of actual mortgage lending in July and August. Consumer credit demand was supported by improving consumer confidence and spending on durables. The net demand for consumer credit was also broadly in line with expectations (net increase of 7%). In the fourth quarter banks expect loans in both categories to increase further, more substantially so for housing loans (44%) than for consumer credit (11%).
Banks’ overall credit terms and conditions eased strongly for housing loans and slightly for loans to firms, but saw a moderate tightening for consumer credit. Lending rates and margins on average loans were the main drivers of the net easing of terms and conditions for housing loans and loans to firms. By contrast, margins on both riskier and average loans were the main drivers of tighter consumer credit terms and conditions.Banks reported a broadly unchanged share of rejected applications for housing loans, a small increase in rejected loans to non-financial corporates and a moderate increase in rejected applications for consumer credit.