Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Ukraine, Turkey, Uzbekistan, India, Malaysia, Zambia, Philippines, Georgia, Armenia. We are forecasting major events for Turkey, India, Malaysia.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

Our models have a 70% accuracy rate over the last two years, meaning that when we predict that a major event will occur in a specific 3-month period, we see a major event occur approximately 70% of the time. In this report, we accurately predicted major events for Purge/Replace and Lethal Violence in India.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Armenia

For Armenia, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in June: In Armenia, Ruben Vardanyan, a prominent business leader and former Minister of State in Nagorno-Karabakh, was arrested on September 27, 2023, while attempting to cross into Armenia amidst Azerbaijan’s actions in Nagorno-Karabakh. Additionally, numerous protests in Yerevan led to mass arrests, with 27 citizens reportedly unlawfully detained on May 31 in connection to the “In the Name of the Motherland” movement. The Armenian National Security Service detained a lieutenant general who had traveled from Kenya to support these protests, and additional arrests included individuals charged with hooliganism for blocking streets and opposing the police. Members of the Mesrop movement were sentenced to house arrest for their involvement in protests advocating for justice for political prisoners.

• Corruption in July: Several events related to corruption and misuse of public funds were reported in Armenia. A resident of the Ararat region orchestrated a scheme to defraud a state program by forging documents and inflating cost estimates, resulting in the theft of more than 412 million drams. Additionally, a high-ranking public official abused his position to illegally sell property for personal gain, and another case involved a public official charged with bribery and misappropriation of emergency service funds. Furthermore, some police officers received short prison sentences for corruption-related activities, while the principal accused avoided imprisonment due to statutory limitations and a past amnesty.

• Defamation Cases in July: The Prime Minister of Armenia pursued a defamation lawsuit against a former ambassador and son-in-law of the ex-president over media claims about corruption and the mishandling of funds, leading to an ongoing legal battle.

• Legal Actions in June, July and August: The former deputy chief of police in Armenia was found guilty and sentenced to four years in prison but was amnestied. The Anti-Corruption Court ordered the removal of assets totaling more than 17 million drams from an elite village in Yerevan due to their unproven legality. Lavon Kocharian was arrested and charged with violence against a policeman during a protest but was released after obtaining a deputy mandate. Kerobian resigned and was placed under house arrest on charges of abuse of power related to a Ministry of Economy tender. Reports indicated excessive police force used against demonstrators, with concerns expressed by PACE and the Armenian opposition. Recent events in Armenia included a significant legal action involving the potential reopening of cases against former President Robert Kocharyan and others, a Yerevan court releasing businessman Aram Azatian on bail amidst ongoing legal proceedings, and a court decision concerning the sale of former Minister of Finance Gagik Khachatrian’s house with proceeds potentially channeled to the national budget. Additionally, there was a criminal case involving a former high-ranking official accused of embezzling over $1 million from a state program and international arbitration disputes involving Armenia in multiple courts, including a notable case with Rasia FZE and Joseph K. Borsowski. The anti-corruption court of first instance approved a petition filed by the lawyer for former Defence Minister David Tonoyan about incidents including the 44-day conflict with Azerbaijan. Former government minister Arutyunyan and four family members were summoned regarding the confiscation of illegal property. The anti-corruption court partially satisfied defenses linked to cases of financial misconduct and fraud related to the Middle East war. The court dismissed a lawsuit from the Civil Treaty party against Armenia News concerning slanderous information about election-related bribery published in 2013. Counsel for Arsen Babayan succeeded in having the court withdraw a non-exit subscription from him regarding his involvement in a “mass disorder” case from 19 September 2023 on Bagramian Prospect.

• Legal Changes in July: A draft law was adopted in Armenia to enhance its role in regional transit and cooperation with Iran, providing benefits for road taxpayers entering Armenia with freight vehicles for transit purposes. Armenian authorities are considering drafting a new Constitution by 2026, amidst controversy and delays over amendments that could alter the reference to the Declaration of Independence and affect potential EU accession. The city of Yerevan addressed issues with self-buildings lacking permits, which posed legal and logistical challenges for property owners and municipal governance. A new program mandated the transition to employment for working-age citizens applying for benefits, with family eligibility and benefit levels reviewed annually based on the minimum consumer basket or extreme poverty thresholds.

• Security Mobilization in June: In response to renewed anti-government protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, police special forces were extensively mobilized, with a heavy security presence around the National Assembly, government gates, and road checkpoints in Yerevan. Police forces escalated security by deploying barbed wire around the gates of the National Assembly and intensifying vehicle inspections in multiple regions. As part of the political unrest, the Motherland movement organized a large rally in Erevan, drawing significant police force attention and necessitating an increase in security measures around the capital. Due to the public outcry over the border delimitation, protesters blocked the Kiranza road for several days, prompting a mobilization of security forces to manage the protest. Concurrent with these events, the Prime Minister continued to engage with journalists within the Parliament building.

• Protests in June: Protests in June: Thousands of Armenians protested in Yerevan, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian over concessions to Azerbaijan and the handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, with police using stun grenades on June 12. Residents of the villages Vardenut and Aragaz blocked roads in opposition to the government’s decision to designate 110 hectares for a ski complex, eco-village, and reservoir. Armenian judges’ assistants, court registrars, and clerks went on strike over low salaries, leading to the shutdown of the Administrative Court office, and Paruire Ayrikyan initiated a hunger strike to protest against the government’s policies. Members of the “In the Name of the Motherland” movement held a rally in the Gegarkunik region and planned a gathering in Yerevan to protest government policies.

• Raids in June: Masked officers of a special police squad raided Karabakh’s permanent representation in Yerevan, targeting a bodyguard as part of an investigation into illegal activities. The officers did not produce a court warrant during the raid.

• Non-lethal Violence in June: On 12 June, significant non-lethal violence occurred in Yerevan when police used force, including light-shattered grenades, against peaceful protesters, resulting in over 100 injuries and numerous detentions. An incident on 22 June at a SAS supermarket resulted in two men suffering cranial injuries after being denied access to a taxi. On 21 June, severe non-lethal violence was reported at the Permanent Mission of the Republic of Artzah, where authorities used disproportionate force. A border incident near the 7th-century church of Surb Asatzacin in Voskepar resulted in an Armenian border guard being injured by an anti-personnel mine. On 12 June, Armenian authorities reportedly used force against minors during protests in Erevan and Tavusha.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Georgia

For Georgia, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Legal Changes in June: The adoption of the “Foreign Influence Transparency Law” in Georgia led to significant political debate and mass protests. President Salome Zurabishvili vetoed changes to the “Election Code” that would lower the quorum needed for the Central Election Commission’s decisions. The Georgian Parliament adopted a legislative package restricting the rights of LGBT individuals and imposing censorship under the pretext of combating “LGBT propaganda.” Changes to the law on accumulated pension were approved, shifting agency control to the government and allowing investments in risky projects. An amendment to the “Tourism” law was passed, delaying mandatory health and accident insurance for tourists until January 1, 2026.

• Non-lethal Violence in June: Several incidents of violence and intimidation have been reported in Georgia, including assaults on civil society representatives, political leaders, civil activists, and journalists. In Kobuleti, a confrontation resulted in one person being seriously injured, while in Martvil, opponents of a planned construction were attacked. Additionally, a woman in Akhalkalaki stabbed her abusive husband in self-defense, and a civil activist was reportedly beaten by police following his arrest.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Turkey

For Turkey, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in July: Recent events in Turkey included protests against a proposal in Ankara that would permit the euthanasia of street animals, with activists advocating for the humane treatment of these animals. In Akbelen, villagers and environmentalists protested against deforestation efforts to preserve forests and local agriculture. Additionally, residents in Aydın opposed geothermal power plant projects, leading to the cancellation of related meetings, and there were petitions in Çanakkale concerning street safety and in Şişli over disturbances from alcohol-serving establishments.

• Arrests in July: There were reports of intense protests and provocations in Kayseri after the molestation of a minor by a Syrian national, which led to attacks against Syrian businesses and homes, and the detention of 91 suspects. Additionally, large-scale police operations such as “Sibergöz-50” and “Sibergöz-49” were conducted, resulting in numerous arrests related to cybercrime, child molestation, illegal betting, and organized financial crimes. Furthermore, the “KALKAN-25” operation led to the arrest of 149 individuals involved in migrant trafficking, and in Izmir, following electrocution incidents due to infrastructure issues, 33 municipal and utility officials were taken into custody.

• Censorship in July and August: In Turkey, authorities closed and restricted Medyaradar’s internet site along with thousands of other news sources, as reported by Free Web Turkey. The Supreme Council of Radio and Television (RTÜK) revoked Open Radio’s license, ending its 29-year operation, and implemented fines and restrictions on foreign content such as “Socis Party: Foodtopia.” Additionally, Wattpad was shut down by the Ankara 10th Criminal Judgeship of Peace, and local authorities in Antalya banned the Honor Bear events. The Information Technologies and Communications Agency in Turkey blocked access to Instagram, citing violations related to “catalog crimes,” which affected various business operations and received widespread media coverage. A gag order was imposed by RTÜK on the disappearance of an 8-year-old child in Diyarbakır to protect the child’s family and the investigation’s integrity. Additionally, both Instagram and Roblox were blocked in Turkey following a judicial decision, leading to public outcry over increasing digital restrictions. Human rights organizations criticized the removal of Kurdish traffic markings as an infringement on cultural and linguistic rights. Lastly, the RTÜK’s decision to revoke the license of Open Radio was temporarily halted by a court ruling, although a subsequent objection was dismissed.

• Disaster in June and August: A large fire between the Diyarbakır and Mardin provinces resulted in the deaths of 15 people and significant damage to the land, while a landslide at the Erzincan mine led to the deaths of nine miners and substantial rescue efforts. In Istanbul, several building collapses caused injuries and evacuations, raising structural safety concerns. Additionally, widespread forest fires in various provinces destroyed thousands of hectares, and Malatya experienced moderate earthquakes, prompting safety assessments. Turkey experienced devastating earthquakes on February 6, 2023, with magnitudes of 7. 7 and 7. 6, causing widespread destruction across 11 cities and resulting in numerous deaths and injuries. A series of forest fires in regions including İzmir, Aydın, and Muğla led to the evacuation of 3,583 people and damaged thousands of hectares of land, necessitating extensive firefighting efforts. Additionally, multiple bus accidents resulted in significant casualties, and a West Nile virus outbreak prompted public health alerts after six confirmed cases.

• Legal Actions in July: The trial of Ayhan Bora Kaplan, involving corruption and bribery cases connected to high-ranking officials, was noted in Turkey. The murder trial of former Ülkü January President Sinan Fire involved multiple defendants and political figures, with accusations of organized crime. The investigation into environmental violations by the Bozcaada municipality resulted in a significant fine for pollution, reflecting governmental enforcement of regulations. The case of former HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş continued, with additional prison time imposed for incitement-related charges. The Renaissance Rezidans case in Hatay, stemming from a February 2023 earthquake, addressed accountability for construction negligence.

• Legal Changes in July: The Grand National Assembly of Turkey adopted a controversial law allowing euthanasia for unclaimed street animals, leading to opposition from animal rights activists. A new tax package was proposed to impose a minimum institutions tax for multinational companies to align with global tax practices. Public transport fees increased significantly in major Turkish cities, affecting daily commuters. Amendments in the Ministry of National Education Law exempted certain students from the equivalence process, raising concerns over educational standards. Additionally, Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus ratified a healthcare cooperation agreement to enhance bilateral ties.

• Security Mobilization in July: Turkey mobilized five warships to the Aegean Sea in response to heightened tensions with Greece, increasing the regional military presence. More than 1,000 Syrian mercenaries were mobilized through Turkey to fight against jihadist groups in Niger, showing Turkey’s involvement in international security efforts. Additionally, large-scale operations were conducted in Şanlıurfa and Istanbul, targeting wanted individuals and focusing on traffic regulation and crime prevention to maintain peace and security. The National Intelligence Service also responded to provocations in Kayseri and the Firat Shield Operations area, demonstrating a high level of national security readiness.

• Protests in July and August: In several Turkish cities, including Hatay, Gaziantep, and Kayseri, riots occurred following accusations of a foreign national sexually abusing a child, leading to violence against businesses owned by foreign nationals. Workers at the Eti Krom Mining Company in Elazığ initiated a strike with over 300 participants demanding higher wages and bonuses, continuing amidst negotiations. Animal rights activists protested across various Turkish cities against a proposed law permitting euthanasia for street animals, with rallies supported by political figures. Retirees gathered in Istanbul to protest inflation and low pensions, highlighting economic challenges. Doctors in Muğla protested against violence in healthcare facilities and poor working conditions by temporarily leaving their jobs after a colleague was assaulted. Farmers in Turkey protested low prices and high costs by blocking roads with tractors in multiple locations, which led to government resignation calls. Environmentalists and local residents demonstrated against mining operations due to environmental concerns in regions such as Rize Yazdere and Diyarbakır’s Kulp district. Additionally, industrial and agricultural workers, including those in Tuzla, initiated strikes for better wages and working conditions, while animal rights activists protested against a new law affecting street animals, citing increased deaths and inadequate responses.

• Purge/Replace in June and July: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan relieved seven heads of his party from their duties, indicating a shift in the ruling AKP’s internal structure. A large reshuffle in the judiciary occurred with 4,299 judges and prosecutors affected. Significant resignations within the Good Party and the dismissal of Hakkari’s mayor due to an investigation affected political dynamics. Additionally, 273 newly employed municipal workers were terminated in Diyarbakır, reflecting changes in local employment following elections. A major cabinet reshuffle occurred in Turkey, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dismissing key ministers and appointing new ones, including a new Health Minister. Additionally, Erdogan signed off on a large-scale bureaucratic overhaul by replacing 302 deputy governors and estate managers, complemented by a significant employment restructure in DEM-party municipalities in Diyarbakir. A wide-reaching change was also executed with the replacement of governors in five provinces and the appointment of new university rectors following the dismissal of senior bureaucrats.

• Raids in July: A major counterterrorism operation in Turkey targeted the DEAŞ terrorist organization across 13 districts, resulting in the detention of 72 members following intelligence surveillance. In the Tekkeköy district, a substantial anti-drug operation led to the seizure of 1,1701 ecstasy tablets and methamphetamines valued at 3. 5 million euros. Additionally, raids against illegal artifacts dealers across 24 counties, including major cities like Izmir, Ankara, and Istanbul, resulted in the arrest of 47 suspects involved in smuggling and selling historical artifacts. An operation against the DHKP-C terrorist organization by the Istanbul Intelligence Directorate resulted in the arrest of 12 members involved in covert activities in Istanbul and Sakarya.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Non-lethal Violence in Q1 2025.

Ukraine

For Ukraine, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Security Mobilization in August: Ukrainian forces launched a significant military incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, advancing 28-35 kilometers and capturing 1,294 square kilometers and 100 settlements. Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast have intensified their operations, characterized by continuous combat and offensive maneuvers against Russian positions. Additionally, the Ukrainian military has initiated a large-scale counteroffensive in Donetsk Oblast near Pokrovsk, resulting in intense fighting and tactical withdrawals. Ukrainian forces also increased their security presence across various regions in preparation for national holidays, coordinating with the National Police and local authorities.

• Lethal Violence in July and August: A mass missile attack by Russia on multiple cities across Ukraine on July 8 resulted in at least 38 deaths and nearly 170 injuries, targeting 50 civilian sites, including Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Sloviansk, Pokrovsk, and Kramatorsk. Over multiple days, Russian shelling across various regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, caused at least 11 civilian deaths and 41 injuries. On July 27, Russia attacked Hlukhiv in Sumy Oblast with multiple launch rocket systems, killing a 14-year-old boy and injuring 14 others, while on July 3, a Russian drone and missile assault on Dnipro resulted in 5 deaths and 53 injuries. A missile strike on Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast on August 9 resulted in the deaths of 14 people and injuries to 44, including three children. Subsequent Russian attacks killed at least 18 people and injured 60 more across Ukraine, with the largest casualties in Kostiantynivka. Another missile and drone attack on August 26 killed seven people and injured 47, primarily targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Additionally, a Russian glide bomb attack on Selydove killed two civilians and injured 11, and ongoing artillery strikes in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts resulted in multiple civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, including six deaths and 14 injuries in Kharkiv on August 30.

• Non-lethal Violence in July and August: Significant recent events in Ukraine included Ukrainian air defense downing 89 Shahed-type attack drones and one Kh-59 missile in the largest drone assault on Kyiv so far in 2024. Ongoing Russian offensives in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Kherson regions resulted in large-scale bombardments, causing injuries to dozens of civilians and damaging critical infrastructure. Additionally, a large-scale cyberattack by Ukraine’s military intelligence affected over 250,000 consumers in occupied Crimea and other Russian-controlled territories, leading to widespread communication blackouts. The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, controlling around 1,150 square kilometers and over 80 settlements as of August 15, which led to several Russian counterattacks and shellings. On the morning of August 26, Russia targeted 15 oblasts in Ukraine with its largest missile and drone attack since the full-scale invasion, causing significant damage to civilian and energy infrastructure, power outages, and injuries, including the death of seven people. Ukraine’s military intelligence conducted a drone attack on Russia’s Savasleyka airbase on August 21, destroying three airplanes and damaging five more, while Russian troops regularly shelled Kherson, resulting in multiple civilian injuries, and a drone attack on Kharkiv on August 8 caused severe injuries and fires in residential areas.

Forecasting

Due to the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine’s data and the interruption of historical patterns that our models rely on to make predictions, we do not publish forecasts for Ukraine.

Uzbekistan

For Uzbekistan, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Defamation Cases in June: Blogger and activist Mourad Mahsudov was found guilty of defamation, extortion, theft, and fraud by the Yashnabad District Court in Tashkent and was sentenced to 7. 5 years’ imprisonment.

• Security Mobilization in July: The multinational military exercises “Byrlestjik-2024” in the Mangistu region involved the participation of Uzbekistan, as military contingents from the country joined those from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. These exercises entered a major phase, enhancing the combat readiness of the involved countries.

• Protests in June: Protests occurred in several regions of Uzbekistan, including Voodoo villas, Blackpeace Republic, Xorazm, Buxoro, and Navoiy, on July 1–2, due to dissatisfaction with regional governance and resource allocation. The demonstrations saw widespread participation from local populations. Additionally, a high-profile march on “Dunjo Sads,” highlighted by significant celebrity involvement, attracted media attention, possibly indicating cultural or geopolitical issues.

• Lethal Violence in July: A family in Yangyul district were investigated for murder due to a suspicious fire and a man in Yangikhayet district stabbing his partner multiple times. Additionally, a report surfaced of a man killing a 14-year-old girl in an undisclosed incident, while a woman was sentenced to death for the fatal beating of her niece over unmet homework expectations. Furthermore, Uzbekistan’s President condemned an alleged assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, pointing to concerns over international political violence.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

India

For India, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in June and July: In Bhopal, activists were successful in stopping the cutting down of 29,000 trees planned for a government housing project, reflecting community efforts for environmental conservation. In Chennai, protests occurred as the Tamil Nadu government received petitions for making government offices more accessible to differently-abled persons, highlighting issues related to disability rights. In Bengaluru, environmental activists opposed plans to cut 33,000 trees for the Suburban Railway Project, calling for alternatives to maintain the city’s greenery. Tensions related to Maratha reservation continued, with demonstrations and hunger strikes focusing on demands for fair quotas without affecting existing reservations for Other Backward Classes. Disability rights activists in India advocated for increased financial support in the upcoming budget to improve infrastructure, healthcare, and employment for persons with disabilities. In Punjab, over 200 volunteers participated in a community-led initiative to clean a stretch of the Sutlej River, following the inspiration of a university professor. Additionally, the Nasha Mukti Indradhanush Abhiyan India campaign received support from over 1,000 doctors and medical students to promote tobacco cessation. Lastly, Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil continued efforts for Maratha reservation with the statewide ‘Janjagruti Shantata Yatra’.

• Arrests in July: Recent events in India included the arrest of a senior lawyer in Jammu and Kashmir under the Public Safety Act amid tensions related to the Jammu and Kashmir High Court Bar Association’s elections. The Jammu and Kashmir Police also arrested a Hizbul Mujahideen operative during a counter-terrorism search operation in Jammu. In Ghaziabad, the arrest of two women and the issuance of warrants for others followed the suicide of a woman allegedly due to workplace harassment. The Punjab Police apprehended three drug smugglers, resulting in the seizure of a significant quantity of synthetic drugs. In Tamil Nadu, 11 individuals were arrested in connection with a hooch tragedy that led to 65 deaths.

• Censorship in July and August: The Supreme Court of India intervened to stay a Karnataka High Court order, allowing the Kannada news channel ‘Power TV’ to resume broadcasting after it was initially halted for airing content about alleged sex scandals involving politicians. In the Nuh district of Haryana, mobile internet services were suspended by the state government for 24 hours to prevent misinformation and maintain public order during the Braj Mandal Jalabhishek Yatra following previous violence. Additionally, the Delhi High Court directed the retraction of claims by Baba Ramdev that Patanjali’s Coronil could cure Covid-19, ordering the removal of such advertisements from digital platforms. The Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) in Mumbai banned the Progressive Students’ Forum (PSF), accusing it of defaming the institute, which raised concerns about the suppression of student activism and free speech in educational institutions. The Supreme Court of India ordered the removal of social media posts identifying the victim of the Kolkata RG Kar Medical College rape and murder, addressing the balance between victim privacy and media freedom in reporting sensitive cases.

• Corruption in July: The Mumbai Economic Offences Wing arrested an individual for defrauding a businessman in a real estate scam involving Kamla Mills. The Enforcement Directorate attached assets worth over ₹300 crore in a money laundering investigation involving a former Haryana Chief Minister, related to alleged real estate fraud. Additionally, a Congress MLA was arrested in connection with a money laundering case linked to illegal mining. In Jharkhand, an individual faces charges for illegally diverting subsidized coal to the open market, involving public servants in a bribery investigation.

• Defamation Cases in July: Rahul Gandhi appeared before the Sultanpur court for a defamation case filed in 2018. West Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee faces a lawsuit from Governor C.V. Ananda Bose for alleged remarks. Activist Medha Patkar was sentenced to five months imprisonment for a 23-year-old defamation case filed by Delhi Lieutenant Governor V.K. Saxena. A defamation lawsuit involves YouTuber Dhruv Rathee, accused by BJP spokesperson Suresh Nakhua. TMC MP Saket Gokhale was ordered to pay damages for tweets deemed defamatory against former diplomat Lakshmi Puri.

• Disaster in June, July and August: A heatwave in India led to over 200 suspected heatstroke deaths, with a significant healthcare crisis emerging as hospitals struggled to manage the influx of patients, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Odisha. In West Bengal, a collision between a goods train and the stationary Kanchanjunga Express resulted in nine fatalities and injuries to 41 others. In Sikkim, ongoing rainfall triggered landslides, causing the deaths of at least six people and leaving over 1,200 tourists stranded due to damaged infrastructure. Landslides in Wayanad district, Kerala, caused by heavy rains resulted in at least 123 deaths and 128 injuries, with ongoing rescue efforts. A stampede during a religious gathering in Hathras district, Uttar Pradesh, led to the deaths of at least 116 individuals due to overcrowding. Kerala faced an outbreak of diseases such as dengue and cholera, causing around 150 deaths during the monsoon season. Severe flooding in Surat, Gujarat, disrupted daily life with rescue operations in progress. In Mumbai, torrential rains paralyzed public transport, resulting in 80 train service cancellations and widespread waterlogging. Landslides in Kerala’s Wayanad district caused by heavy rain resulted in over 400 deaths, with hundreds injured and missing, marking a significant disaster in the region. Severe flooding in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to relentless rainfall caused several deaths and mass evacuations, disrupting normal life. In Andhra Pradesh, a fire at a pharmaceutical plant resulted in 17 fatalities and serious injuries, attributed to a vapour cloud explosion involving Methyl tert-butyl ether. An explosion at a steel plant in Jharkhand’s Hazaribag district led to five deaths and several injuries. Telangana experienced a surge in dengue fever cases, raising public health concerns during the monsoon period.

• Legal Changes in July and August: Colonial-era laws were replaced with the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, and Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam to modernize the criminal justice system. Assam repealed the Assam Muslim Marriages and Divorce Registration Act of 1935 as part of legal modernization efforts. Amendments were made to the Uttar Pradesh Anti-Conversion Law, increasing penalties and raising concerns about religious freedom. Additionally, the Goa government amended land use legislation, affecting real estate development in sensitive areas, while Bihar introduced a law to prevent unfair practices in public examinations. The Supreme Court of India delivered a judgment allowing the sub-classification of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes to enable states to create quotas within these groups. The Waqf (Amendment) Bill was introduced in the Lok Sabha with the aim of increasing transparency and representation in Waqf Boards, sparking criticism regarding potential minority rights infringement. In Assam, the Assembly abolished a rule providing a Friday namaz break for Muslim legislators and introduced a bill making the registration of Muslim marriages and divorces compulsory. Additionally, the Andhra Pradesh government repealed the Land Titling Act to address property rights and governance concerns.

• Security Mobilization in June and August: The swearing-in ceremony of India’s Prime Minister in New Delhi involved extensive security arrangements, with a multi-layered security cordon as dignitaries from SAARC countries attended. In Jammu and Kashmir, security forces were tightened with increased troop levels and enhanced measures to address recent terrorist attacks and ensure the safety of pilgrims during the Amarnath Yatra. The Election Commission deployed 400 companies of central forces in West Bengal to manage post-election violence concerns following contentious results. Additional security personnel were deployed during the counting of votes in various Lok Sabha constituencies to prevent electoral violence and ensure smooth operations. In Hyderabad, police increased security efforts through undercover operations and patrols to tackle night-time crimes. India mobilized significant security measures along its border with Bangladesh following political instability in the neighboring country, increasing troop presence and maintaining strict vigilance to prevent illegal immigration. In response to the rape and murder of a junior doctor in Kolkata, the Supreme Court ordered the deployment of CISF personnel to ensure the safety of healthcare workers. Additional paramilitary forces were deployed across Jammu and Kashmir to secure assembly elections amid terrorism concerns. Delhi enhanced security measures for Independence Day, involving thousands of police and traffic officers and the installation of AI-enabled facial recognition cameras. In Kerala, a multi-agency rescue operation was undertaken in response to landslides in Wayanad, involving personnel from the Indian Army and NDRF to facilitate rescue and relief efforts.

• Protests in July and August: Protests in Kerala, led by the Students Federation of India, focused on issues such as inadequate educational resources and alleged violence by opposing groups, resulting in injuries and the arrest of student activists. In Delhi’s Rajinder Nagar, protests were sparked by the deaths of three UPSC aspirants in a flooded coaching center, with demands for accountability from coaching centers and authorities. In multiple states, including Punjab and Tamil Nadu, farmers demonstrated against issues related to water allocation and power supply disruptions. Additionally, supporters of a slain BSP leader protested in Chennai, demanding a CBI investigation into his murder. Protests were reported across India in response to the rape and murder of a trainee doctor in Kolkata. Healthcare professionals participated in a nationwide strike organized by the Indian Medical Association, disrupting medical services to demand safety for healthcare workers. In Delhi, resident doctors protested for 11 days, significantly impacting medical services and demanding enhanced workplace security. Demonstrations by the Kuki-Zo community took place in New Delhi, calling for accountability from the Manipur Chief Minister regarding ethnic conflicts, with demands for a separate administration. In West Bengal, protests were held by various political parties, including the BJP, against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s handling of the Kolkata doctor rape-murder case, with a high level of public participation.

• Purge/Replace in June and August: The reshuffling of the Narendra Modi 3. 0 government resulted in the swearing-in of 72 ministers, influencing key governmental roles and political alliances in India. Subodh Kumar Singh, the chief of the National Testing Agency, was removed due to allegations of irregularities in major exams, drawing significant attention to accountability in educational assessments. Additionally, the Chhattisgarh administration was restructured following violence in Balodabazar, which included the suspension and transfer of key officials to address public unrest and administrative accountability. Allegations of corporate fraud involving the Adani Group led to calls from Indian opposition parties for the resignation of SEBI chief, creating a political uproar. In Madhya Pradesh, a large-scale administrative reshuffle resulted in the transfer of 26 Indian Administrative Service officers and 21 Indian Police Services officers. Similarly, the Odisha government transferred 18 senior IAS officers, marking significant changes in administrative roles. In Jammu and Kashmir, the government, with the Election Commission’s approval, transferred senior police officials across several districts to ensure a fair electoral process in upcoming assembly elections.

• Raids in August: The Enforcement Directorate conducted searches in multiple states related to a money-laundering investigation, leading to the seizure and freezing of assets valued at ₹38. 57 crore, and targeted a cryptocurrency fraud case in Ladakh, uncovering a scheme that defrauded over 2,500 investors. The National Investigation Agency executed searches to disrupt a Pakistani espionage racket involving the leak of classified defense information. Additionally, the Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad dismantled an illegal telephone exchange causing substantial financial losses, and the Mumbai Zonal Unit of the Enforcement Directorate targeted a cooperative society in a fraud case worth ₹168 crore.

• Lethal Violence in July: In Jammu & Kashmir, India, a series of counter-insurgency operations in the Kulgam district resulted in the deaths of six militants and two Indian soldiers. In Chhattisgarh, India, Maoist ambushes in Sukma and Bijapur districts led to the deaths of one Maoist and a police officer during ongoing counter-insurgency efforts.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Civic Space Index in Q3 2024. Through August, we did not observe an increase in Q3.

Our updated forecasts are still predicting a jump in the Civic Space Index a few months later in Q1 2025

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting on Arrests in Q3 and Q4 2024. Consistent with our prediction, we saw an increase in reporting on Arrests in July 2024.

Our updated forecasts are now predicting a smaller jump in reporting on Arrests a few months later in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Legal Actions in Q4 2024.

Our updated forecasts are still predicting a jump in reporting on Legal Actions, now expected a few months later in Q1 2025.

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting on Corruption in Q3 and Q4 2024. Consistent with our prediction, we saw a small increase in reporting on Corruption in July 2024.

Our standard models are still predicting an increase in reporting on Corruption in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Purge/Replace in Q3 2024. Consistent with this prediction, we saw small increases in reporting on Purge/Replace in June and August 2024.

Our standard models are now predicting an increase in reporting on Purge/Replace in Q1 2025.

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Lethal Violence in Q3 2024. Consistent with our prediction, we saw an increase in reporting on Lethal Violence in July 2024.

Malaysia

For Malaysia, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of June 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in June: Malaysian authorities conducted a series of operations leading to the arrest of individuals linked to various criminal activities. In coordination with Thai authorities, the Malaysian Police arrested suspects associated with the Islamic State terror group, averting potential threats. Additionally, operations by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission resulted in arrests related to a highway project bribery case and a Felda land bribery scheme, while other operations targeted human trafficking syndicates and a smuggling network involved in significant tax evasion.

• Censorship in June: The Malaysian government, through the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), blocked numerous dissenting news websites, which reports suggested contributed to a decline in the country’s press freedom ranking. The MCMC also requested social media platforms to delete specific content to prevent interference with a legal case and made multiple removal requests to TikTok, actions that were criticized for potentially undermining freedom of expression. Additionally, a major Mandarin-language publication’s Facebook page was taken down without disclosed reasons, and the MCMC blocked and removed a large number of pornography and prostitution-related websites and content.

• Legal Changes in July: Amendments to Malaysia’s Penal Code (Amendment) Bill 2024 were made to introduce harsher penalties for online fraud involving ‘mule’ accounts. The Personal Data Protection (Amendment) Bill 2024 proposed increased penalties for data protection violations, and the Evidence of Child Witness (Amendment) Bill 2024 aimed to consider the evidence of child witnesses in legal proceedings. Additionally, a new regulatory framework by the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission will regulate social media and internet messaging platforms from January 1, 2025, and the Audit (Amendment) Bill 2024 aims to enhance the Auditor General’s authority for better governance and accountability.

• Lethal Violence in July: The murder of a car rental worker in Hulu Selangor was investigated as potentially being the result of a personal relationship dispute, with charges anticipated for the suspect. Additionally, two women reported missing in July were found dead in a car in Penang, leading to an investigation into their deaths.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Civic Activism in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

Our standard models are still predicting an increase in reporting on Civic Activism in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

Philippines

For Philippines, our data includes coverage through August 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in August: Human rights groups, party-list representatives, and NGOs in the Philippines petitioned for an investigation into judicial actions against humanitarian and development NGOs, reflecting public concern over civic spaces and rights. Indigenous groups and families of missing activists protested in Manila, advocating for attention to enforced disappearances. The Power for People Coalition filed a legal challenge against the Energy Regulatory Commission over power company profit margins and consumer rates, drawing public and governmental scrutiny. Health advocates in the Philippines called for a review of the Vape Regulation Law after a vape-related death to address health risks. Activists urged for accountability in the oil spill incident off the coast of Limay, Bataan, emphasizing environmental responsibility from the shipowner.

• Corruption in August: Former Bamban Mayor and 35 others faced charges related to money laundering connected to illegal Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations in Central Luzon. Questions arose regarding the legality of transferring unused funds from the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation to the national treasury. The Court of Appeals ordered the freezing of Pastor Apollo Quiboloy’s assets due to allegations of money laundering, human trafficking, and sexual abuse. The former Commission on Elections Chairman was indicted in the U.S. for bribery and money laundering linked to vote-counting machines. A former Customs intelligence officer accused associates of a former president of involvement in smuggling and illegal activities related to drugs and offshore gaming operations.

• Defamation Cases in June and July: Former senator Antonio Trillanes IV filed complaints against figures including former presidential spokesperson Harry Roque and vlogger Byron Cristobal. Additionally, activist Walden Bello petitioned the Supreme Court to decriminalize libel following a cyber libel case involving the former Davao City Chief Information Officer. The Quezon City Prosecutor’s Office initiated preliminary investigations into Trillanes’ complaint, underscoring ongoing discussions about freedom of speech and libel laws in the country. An ethics complaint was filed by a senator against another senator in the Philippines, which was being processed by the Senate Committee on Ethics and Privileges. A representative from Davao City faced drug smuggling and graft complaints filed by a former senator.

• Disaster in July: Super Typhoon Carina caused massive flooding, landslides, and severe weather conditions across the Philippines, impacting over 1. 3 million people, leading to a state of calamity in Metro Manila, and resulting in at least 34 fatalities. The sinking of the MT Terra Nova in Bataan resulted in an oil spill, threatening environmental damage as oil sheens were observed along shorelines, with ongoing efforts to offload the remaining 1. 4 million liters of industrial fuel. A powerful magnitude 7. 1 earthquake struck Sultan Kudarat, causing significant infrastructural damage, though no immediate casualties were reported. An armyworm infestation affected over 923. 5 hectares of farmland in Negros Occidental, damaging local agriculture and impacting farmer livelihoods.

• Legal Actions in June and August: Legal scrutiny surrounded former President Rodrigo Duterte and the Philippine National Police due to alleged human rights violations during the drug war, highlighted by the conviction of four policemen for unlawful killings. Suspended Bamban Mayor Alice Guo was investigated for charges related to human trafficking and links to illegal Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators. Former Senator Leila de Lima was acquitted of all charges, concluding a legal battle deemed politically motivated by Duterte’s administration. Allegations against the Kingdom of Jesus Christ intensified with charges of obstruction and illegal possession of weapons. The Department of Justice pursued extradition proceedings against former Negros Oriental congressman Arnolfo Teves Jr. following allegations of his involvement in an assassination. The Court of Appeals in the Philippines ordered the freezing of assets and bank accounts of Apollo Quiboloy due to allegations of human trafficking, sexual abuse, and money laundering. Former Mayor Alice Guo of Bamban, Tarlac, faced legal challenges, including charges for misrepresentation and money laundering, amid her alleged departure from the country. Former President Rodrigo Duterte was implicated in investigations related to extrajudicial killings during his administration’s war on drugs, with the House quad committee summoning him for testimonies. The Sandiganbayan acquitted former PNP Chief Jesus Verzosa of graft charges related to a helicopter scam, while convicting five others. The Supreme Court mandated Pagcor and PCSO to remit portions of their income to the Philippine Sports Commission following a petition highlighting the importance of funding sports programs.

• Legal Changes in August: The Self-Reliant Defense Posture Revitalization Act was passed in the Philippines to establish a self-reliant defense industry and reduce foreign dependency amid regional tensions. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed the Loss and Damage Fund Board Act into law, enabling the Philippines to contribute to and participate in global climate disaster response efforts. Additionally, there is a proposal to create a Department of Water Resources and Water Regulatory Commission to improve water resource management, and a Medical Cannabis Bill has advanced, aiming to legalize medical cannabis use. The Senate ratified the Anti-Agricultural Economic Sabotage Act, introducing penalties for agricultural market abuses to support local industries and food security.

• Security Mobilization in June, July and August: China deployed 146 vessels between June 4 and June 10 in the West Philippine Sea, prompting the Philippine Navy to announce these activities. In response to heightened volcanic activity from Mount Kanlaon, the Philippine Coast Guard placed its units on heightened alert and mobilized response teams to assist local government units in ensuring public safety. The Armed Forces of the Philippines augmented its troop and artillery presence in Eastern Visayas to bolster its anti-insurgency efforts. Over 1,000 personnel from the Philippine Air Force and US Pacific Air Forces participated in Cope Thunder 2024-2 exercises at Clark Air Base to enhance military preparedness. The Philippine Coast Guard deployed ships in response to China’s new regulation in the South China Sea. The deployment for the State of the Nation Address of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. involved over 24,000 personnel to maintain security and manage traffic due to the attendance of numerous VIPs and protesters. Following Typhoon Carina and the southwest monsoon, the Armed Forces of the Philippines conducted large-scale humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations in coordination with local governments. In response to an oil spill from the sunken M/T Terra Nova, the Philippine Coast Guard deployed vessels to contain the spill and mitigate environmental impact. The Philippine National Police reallocated 75 security personnel from Vice President Sara Duterte’s detail to the Presidential Security Command as no immediate threats were identified. Additionally, joint military exercises with the United States involved 1,800 Philippine Army troops and 1,300 US troops, highlighting ongoing defense collaboration. Significant law enforcement mobilization occurred in Davao City as police officers were deployed to raid a compound and arrest a fugitive pastor, leading to public disruption. The government increased joint military exercises in the South China Sea amid rising tensions with China, involving several international partners. The Philippine National Police doubled its presence at Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 1 in response to security concerns related to fugitive activities. The government established livestock checkpoints across Luzon to combat the spread of African Swine Fever, affecting local agriculture and economy. Security measures were intensified at the Light Rail Transit and Manila Metro Rail Transit, with additional police deployed to address rising criminal incidents.

• Protests in August: Recent events in the Philippines included a nationwide transport strike organized by groups opposing the Public Transport Modernization Program, with thousands participating. In Davao City, a rally by Kingdom of Jesus Christ members caused significant traffic disruption as they protested in support of their leader. Additionally, Bacolod City and Iloilo City saw demonstrations and strikes against the modernization program, involving transport operators and showcasing resistance to the national policy.

• Purge/Replace in June: Vice President Sara Duterte resigned from her positions as Education Secretary and Co-Vice Chairperson of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict, signaling political shifts and potential tensions within the administration. Additionally, Bamban, Tarlac Mayor Alice Guo was suspended and replaced amid an ongoing crackdown on alleged illegal Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators and corruption. In Pampanga, the police provincial office director and other local police chiefs were relieved of their duties after allegations of unreported killings at a POGO hub emerged, prompting government efforts to address law enforcement accountability. Furthermore, Davao del Norte Governor Edwin Jubahib was suspended for using government resources to support rallies, reflecting local political conflicts. Lastly, a Laguna Municipal Trial Court judge was dismissed and disbarred by the Supreme Court for serious offenses, highlighting enforcement of judicial accountability.

• Raids in June and August: Authorities in the Philippines conducted a raid on a Philippine Offshore Gaming Operation (POGO) hub in Pampanga, arresting 187 individuals and uncovering evidence of sexual exploitation, torture, and kidnapping. About 100 policemen raided the Kingdom of Jesus Christ compound in Davao City to arrest a pastor on charges of child abuse, sexual abuse, and human trafficking, although he was not found on site. Additionally, a travel agency involved in illegal recruitment was shut down in Malolos City, Bulacan, for promising fake jobs abroad and charging high placement fees. The government initiated a crackdown on unlicensed POGOs operated largely by Chinese nationals due to links with criminal activities. Law enforcement agencies also seized approximately P2. 7 million worth of illegal drugs in Southern Metro Manila to combat distribution and trafficking. Recent events in the Philippines included a raid by approximately 2,000 police officers on the Kingdom of Jesus Christ compound in Davao City, resulting in the arrest of individuals related to charges against Apollo Quiboloy. In Manila, law enforcement raided a Chinese-run scam center disguised as an online gaming company, arresting workers linked to fraudulent activities. The Bureau of Customs seized smuggled cigarettes and counterfeit goods worth over P5. 5 billion from warehouses in Bulacan, as well as over 300 tons of smuggled agricultural products from cold storage facilities in Navotas City. Additionally, the National Bureau of Investigation arrested individuals involved in scams during raids on homes in Cavite.

• Non-lethal Violence in June: Recent events in the Philippines included aggressive actions by China’s maritime forces against Philippine vessels during a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal, which escalated tensions between the two nations. In Maguindanao del Sur, a conflict between rival factions of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front resulted in injuries and displaced thousands of residents, prompting calls for government intervention. An attack on a journalist during a transport strike in Quezon City disrupted traffic and drew condemnation from the Presidential Task Force on Media Security. In San Felipe, Zambales, armed men involved in land grabbing entered a private resort, leading to the recovery of firearms by authorities. Additionally, a shooting in Las Piñas City resulted in two police officers being wounded while neutralizing a burglary suspect.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Zambia

For Zambia, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of April 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Arrests in May: Former First Lady Esther Lungu, her daughter, and another individual were arrested by the Drug Enforcement Commission for possession of property suspected to be proceeds of crime in Zambia. Several political and civil rights figures were arrested on charges of seditious practices and hate speech. Former Presidential press aide Amos Chanda was sentenced to 12 months imprisonment for theft of court documents, while Patriotic Front Secretary General Raphael Nakacinda received an 18-month sentence for defamation of the President. Additionally, musician Obed Chileshe was arrested for allegedly stealing money from a radio station.

• Censorship in June: The Zambia Police Service repeatedly blocked opposition Socialist Party (SP) from holding public rallies, citing security concerns, including a notable incident at Changanamai Ground in Kitwe. The police, accompanied by UPND cadres, interrupted a live radio interview of Patriotic Front (PF) Secretary-General Raphael Nakacinda at Breeze FM Radio station in Chipata. Additionally, Raphael Nakacinda was denied permission by the police to visit Rizwan Patel, who has been incarcerated for over five months on disputed charges.

• Corruption in July: The National Prosecution Authority (NPA) in Zambia recovered $35 million worth of assets, marking the largest asset recovery in the country’s history. Golden Manela Investments could not account for K29,033,240 worth of maize collected by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), pointing to mismanagement and possible embezzlement. An internal audit revealed that 23,470 liters of fuel worth K1,299,721 were irregularly drawn by non-authorized vehicles, and K1,120,214 was stolen at the Lusaka Clothing Factory. Former Deputy Inspector General of Police was ordered to forfeit 10 Higer buses worth K26,282,770 and a sum of K1,522,005. 15 following a conviction for financial crimes. The Chinsali Branch Manager for Goodfellow Finance Limited faces 32 counts of embezzlement totaling K1. 480 million.

• Defamation Cases in July: Several defamation cases were reported in Zambia, including the former Anti-Corruption Commission Director General demanding an apology from a newspaper over corruption cover-up allegations and the Solicitor General suing a former ACC board commissioner for defamation. Another case involved a member of the United Party for National Development suing a political leader for false accusations, while the Lusaka High Court dismissed a defamation case brought by the Zambia National Building Society against a news outlet.

• Legal Actions in July: The Constitutional Court of Zambia has refused to dismiss a petition challenging former President Edgar Lungu’s eligibility to contest future elections, instead sending the matter to a full trial. The Lusaka Magistrates’ Court found former Lusaka Province Minister Bowman Lusambo and his wife, Nancy, with cases to answer for multiple criminal charges. The Lusaka Magistrates’ Court has committed 12 men and a juvenile to the High Court for trial on counts of murder and defilement of a 15-year-old girl. The Drug Enforcement Commission (DEC) seized properties belonging to former First Lady Esther Lungu and ordered forfeiture of assets deemed proceeds of crime. The Chipata High Court sentenced Petauke-based police officer Inspector Austin Haafwuma to four years imprisonment with hard labour for manslaughter.

• Security Mobilization in June: Armed police officers and UPND cadres prevented the New Heritage Party’s rally in Mandevu on June 1, 2024. On June 17, 2024, armed police surrounded the Holy Trinity Catholic Church in Ndola to prevent a former president from attending Holy Mass, and the same day, they surrounded the Divine Mercy Catholic Church in Ndola. Heavily armed police also surrounded Changanamai Grounds in Kitwe on June 8, 2024, to prevent a Socialist Party rally. The government is considering deploying the military to address rising cases of alcoholism and maintain law and order if the police fail.

• Protests in June and July: Residents of Mongu protested in the streets demanding a change in government due to the skyrocketing cost of living. Participants in Lusaka’s Chipata Compound of Mandevu Constituency were prevented from holding a New Heritage Party rally by armed thugs, with UPND denying any involvement. The Kitwe rally, organized by Citizens First, was held with significant attendance, focusing on issues such as high living costs, political persecution, and food insecurity. Pupils at Madzimoyo Secondary School in Chipata rioted over allegations of witchcraft, causing substantial damage to school property. A peaceful protest against load shedding was planned by the Protest Movement, demanding accountability from Zesco. Violent clashes occurred in Chingola between illegal miners, known as jerabos, and police after miners were prohibited from accessing a dump site. In another incident, Copperbelt University students rioted due to a lack of water, resulting in looting and property damage. Protests against load shedding by ZESCO led to arrests, which were condemned by the Law Association of Zambia and the Human Rights Commission. Additionally, Patriotic Front Members of Parliament and youth organized protests to address pressing issues, and unionized workers at Copperbelt University engaged in a peaceful protest demanding unpaid gratuities and resolution of collective bargaining disputes.

• Purge/Replace in July: Deputy Speaker Moses Moyo declared nine Patriotic Front (PF) seats vacant in Zambia, prompting legal challenges and impacting the opposition’s representation in parliament. President Hakainde Hichilema dissolved the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) Board and called for the resignation of its Director General amid corruption allegations. The Zambia Medicines and Medical Supplies Agency (ZAMMSA) Board suspended its Director General following a scandal involving the misallocation of medical supplies. President Hichilema also made several high-level ministerial changes to address inefficiencies and corruption within key government departments, and the Patriotic Front expelled its president, Miles Sampa, due to his disregard for party protocol.

• Raids in May and June: Police in Kabwe disrupted a meeting between former President Edgar Lungu and Catholic Bishop Clement Mulenga, citing lack of permission for an illegal meeting, and drew widespread condemnation and political backlash. The police raided Medlands Hospital, abducting Emmanuel Jay Jay Banda despite his recent kidnapping, which led to public demands for his release. Additionally, the Minister of Green Economy and Environment led a crackdown on illegal charcoal traders along Mumbwa Road to address the environmental impact of unauthorized activities. The Anti-Corruption Commission raided former Lusaka Province Minister Bowman Lusambo’s residence to apprehend him due to a bench warrant in a case involving suspected proceeds of crime. Police raided several Catholic churches on the Copperbelt, suspecting former President Edgar Lungu and other opposition leaders were hosted there. Authorities planned a raid targeting houses in Kafue belonging to first responders in the Jay Banda abduction case and members affiliated with the PF Chairperson for Information and Publicity. The Lusaka City Council shut down an illegal ginger beer operation in Chilenje township due to absence of a liquor licensing certificate. Police stormed Breeze FM Radio premises in an attempt to stop a program featuring Patriotic Front PF Secretary General Raphael Mangani Nakacinda.

• Lethal Violence in July: The Independent Broadcasting Authority Director General was murdered, which led to a major police investigation and public outcry. Police in Lusaka prevented a planned robbery at a filling station, resulting in the death of four armed criminals. Additionally, there was a tragic incident in Mufulira where a man succumbed to injuries inflicted during an alleged assault by his wife, an alleged suicide in Mazabuka over mealie meal money, and a murder in Luwingu district where a man was killed by his brothers on accusations of practicing witchcraft.

• Non-lethal Violence in May: A pregnant woman in Lusaka was being allegedly beaten by her husband and his children, putting her pregnancy at risk. A two-year-old baby from Chikankata district was admitted to the hospital after allegedly being sexually abused by her biological father. In Matero, two factions of the Patriotic Front (PF) mobilized for a violent confrontation, and suspected thieves broke into the KBF Law Firm and Zambia Must Prosper Party Secretariat in Lusaka. Additionally, a former Lusaka Province Minister claimed an attempted abduction by suspected UPND cadres, though this was refuted by the police.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.