Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

Published

September 19, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for South Africa, Nicaragua, Liberia, Colombia, Algeria.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

South Africa

For South Africa, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of April 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: In Cape Town, social housing activists submitted 12 applications to the Department of Public Works for state-owned land to be released for affordable housing. U-turn Homeless Ministries and Independent Media launched a campaign to raise R1 million to support the homeless, with volunteers participating in “A Night on the Streets” to highlight homelessness. Animal-rights activists approached the Western Cape High Court to address the unresolved human-baboon conflict in the Cape Peninsula. Gender-based violence organizations rallied outside the Benoni Magistrates Court to support sexual assault victims of a pastor in Daveyton. Activists and civil society in Pietermaritzburg campaigned against the pollution of the Dusi River, urging the SA Human Rights Commission to intervene.

  • Disaster in June and July: A tornado struck KwaZulu-Natal on June 3, 2024, resulting in 12 deaths, displacing over 1,200 people, and causing damage estimated at over R1. 3 billion. Severe flooding affected the Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City metros in the Eastern Cape on June 1-2, 2024, causing at least 10 deaths and displacing over 2,000 people. Rising cases of Mpox reached 16 confirmed cases in June 2024, with three deaths reported, prompting the arrival of specific treatments and heightened public health measures. A collision between a minibus taxi and a bus truck on the R42 Road near Delmas in Mpumalanga on June 24, 2024, resulted in 11 deaths and 24 injuries. A chemical spill on the N3 highway in Durban involving hydrochloric acid on June 14, 2024, necessitated road closure and emergency cleanup efforts, with five people hospitalized for inhalation issues. Severe weather in the Western Cape caused significant damage to over 33,000 structures and affected over 100,000 residents in Cape Town, with authorities considering declaring it a provincial disaster. KwaZulu-Natal is facing wildfires that have resulted in at least 10 deaths and hundreds of homes destroyed, alongside a separate event of a tornado causing widespread destruction and 12 fatalities. In Merafong near Carletonville, a road accident claimed the lives of 11 schoolchildren and their transport driver. There have been 22 confirmed cases of Mpox, with three reported deaths, leading health authorities to intensify contact tracing efforts.

  • Legal Changes in May: The National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill was signed into law by President Cyril Ramaphosa to provide universal health coverage and equal access to healthcare, leading to scrutiny and legal challenges. President Cyril Ramaphosa also signed the Prevention and Combating of Hate Crimes and Hate Speech Bill into law to prevent hate crimes and hate speech. Amendments to immigration regulations introducing a remote working visa were gazetted to allow foreign nationals to work remotely from within South Africa. The Divorce Amendment Bill was signed into law, legally recognizing Muslim marriages. Deputy Chief Justice Mandisa Maya proposed an amendment to the constitution to allow Constitutional Court justices to work in smaller panels to reduce the court’s workload.

  • Security Mobilization in May: There was a deployment of over 17,000 police officers across KwaZulu-Natal to ensure the safety and security of the national elections, and an additional mobilization of 2,828 South African National Defence Force (SANDF) personnel to support the police during the elections. Additional forces were also deployed to Mthatha, Eastern Cape, in response to violent taxi strikes, and approximately 3,000 SANDF troops were stationed at Eskom power stations to support the South African Police Service (SAPS) in maintaining law and order. Furthermore, over 16,000 police officers were mobilized in Mpumalanga for the 2024 general elections.

  • Purge/Replace in June and July: Former Minister of Sports, Arts and Culture Zizi Kodwa resigned due to corruption charges, leading to the appointment of Maropene Ramokgopa as acting minister. eThekwini Mayor Mxolisi Kaunda was recalled and redeployed to the National Council of Provinces by the ANC. DA MP Renaldo Gouws was suspended due to resurfaced derogatory videos. ANC City of Matlosana Mayor James Tsolela resigned following corruption allegations, and President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a significant reshuffle of the national cabinet, removing several long-serving ministers. Cyril Ramaphosa announced a new national executive, creating a Government of National Unity (GNU) that includes diverse political parties such as the ANC, DA, IFP, FF Plus, UDM, PA, and PAC. Senzo Mchunu was appointed as the new Minister of Police, replacing Bheki Cele, in a ministerial reshuffle. Former president Jacob Zuma was expelled from the African National Party by the National Disciplinary Committee (NDC) following his announcement to campaign for the Umkhonto weSizwe Party. Panyaza Lesufi announced a new cabinet for Gauteng after failed negotiations with the DA, resulting in a government formed without DA participation. Zizi Kodwa resigned from his position as a Member of Parliament and former minister of sport, arts, and culture, following a backlash over his reappointment despite previous corruption charges.

  • Raids in May: The Special Investigating Unit (SIU) raided refugee centres across South Africa as part of a corruption probe linked to asylum and refugee papers, identifying over 60 home affairs officials as suspects and seizing cellphones and documents. The Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (Hawks) raided the Free State Department of Human Settlements over allegations of housing fraud related to the Financial Linked Individual Subsidy Programme (Flisp). Saldanha Bay residents reported a police raid at a house in Middelpos, Diazville, concerning the disappearance of a 6-year-old, though police denied making any arrests. The SAPS targeted a road spiking gang in Tshwane linked to Facebook Marketplace scams, rape, attacks, and murders. Around 2,000 children and teachers were removed from schools in Calcutta, Mkhuhlu, by parents demanding government action on poor school conditions.

  • Non-lethal Violence in May: In Seshego, Limpopo, a nine-year-old girl and a 25-year-old man sustained gunshot wounds during a clash between ANC and EFF supporters. An independent candidate and his team were attacked during protests in Philippi, Cape Town, but escaped unharmed. Two ActionSA members were hijacked and kidnapped in Olievenhoutbosch, Centurion, and later found unharmed. Cape Town witnessed vandalism and theft of water and sanitation infrastructure, costing the city R12 million. KwaZulu-Natal police are investigating a case of animal cruelty involving a vehicle belonging to the SPCA being set alight, resulting in the death of three dogs.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Nicaragua

For Nicaragua, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in July: The Nicaraguan government cancelled the legal status of Radio María and 12 other civil organizations, citing administrative and compliance issues, effectively silencing a major religious broadcaster and multiple NGOs. The regime was also responsible for the disappearance of a journalist and the forced exile of 263 journalists since 2018, according to reports citing a systematic campaign of persecution. Additionally, a foreign cyclist and blogger was denied entry into the country.

  • Corruption in May: Recent events in Nicaragua include the illegal confiscation of property by the Ortega-Murillo regime, leading to an estimated cost of at least USD 250 million. The judiciary under the Ortega-Murillo regime has been used to secure authoritarian power, resulting in widespread judicial corruption. Additionally, Dante Mossi, a finance manager for Ortega and executive president of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration, is under investigation for alleged fraud, collusion, and corruption. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned entities connected to Nicaragua’s mining sector for their involvement in illicit activities such as money laundering. Raúl Gerardo Bermúdez Balladares is accused of falsifying manuscripts attributed to Rubén Darío, affecting two U.S. universities.

  • Disaster in June and July: Recent events in Nicaragua include heavy rains from multiple tropical waves causing widespread flooding, landslides, infrastructure damage, and resulting in several fatalities and the collapse of a wall in Managua that led to the deaths of a father and his three children. Additionally, heavy rains triggered a marine accident in Puerto Sandino, which resulted in the deaths of three workers from the National Port Company (EPN) and left one missing. The country has also experienced a significant rise in dengue cases, with over 429 positive cases confirmed in the last six weeks. Heavy rains and harsh conditions at the start of the hurricane season in Nicaragua resulted in multiple fatalities and significant damage, including the collapse of homes and drowning incidents. Severe weather and lightning storms across Nicaragua also caused several deaths, including individuals struck by lightning and those killed by falling trees. Additionally, multiple house fires, likely caused by faulty electric cables and weather conditions, led to fatalities and significant property damage, while many individuals drowned due to strong currents and boat accidents during the rainy season.

  • Legal Changes in May: The National Assembly of Nicaragua reformed Law 800, concerning the Grand Interoceanic Canal of Nicaragua, and repealed Law 840, which had granted a concession to a Chinese businessman for the canal’s construction. The government also established a new law creating the “Presidential Council for Coordination, Cooperation, and Exchange of Information” to oversee efforts against organized crime, drug trafficking, and related offenses. Additionally, regulations were introduced banning the use of drones, controlling audiovisual productions, and regulating recreational activities and artistic performances, impacting local artists and independent promoters. Lastly, the government banned Catholic processions, including those honoring Santa María Auxiliadora.

  • Security Mobilization in May and June: Police in Nicaragua installed a medical unit at the home of a retired general, widely interpreted as house arrest, amidst an unemployment crisis affecting 2,000 public employees. During a religious event at the National Sanctuary of the Virgin of Cuapa, police were deployed to manage attendees. The Nicaraguan Army conducted training walks in Chinandega and supported fisheries inspections in Bluefields Bay, while health brigades visited Sabana Grande for an anti-epidemic campaign targeting mosquito-borne diseases. The National Police conducted 401 foot and motorized patrol operations in Nueva Segovia, covering neighborhoods, markets, tourist destinations, parks, and bus terminals. The Army took control of communal land in Colonia El Periodista, Managua, erecting a wall that restricted access and altered land use for residents of the area. The Nicaraguan Army’s Naval Force announced shooting exercises in the Great Lake of Nicaragua, near Ometepe, affecting transit and public activity around the lake on June 26 and 27 from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Additionally, the Nicaraguan Army scheduled firing exercises with infantry weapons from June 14 to 16 at the Las Azucenas hacienda in the Dolores Marín neighborhood, Siuna, and conducted combative preparation and shooting exercises at the General Staff firing range in Matagalpa from June 24 to 28, impacting the communities of Waswalí, El Guayacán, and Las 3M neighborhood.

  • Purge/Replace in June and July: Iván Acosta Montalván was removed from his position as Minister of Finance in Nicaragua after 12 years, leading to the appointment of Bruno Gallardo as his successor. Additionally, the Nicaraguan government ordered the shutdown of 15 NGOs, including the Federación de Asociaciones Ganaderas de Nicaragua (Faganic), and canceled four mining concessions, reallocating them to Chinese companies. The Ministry of the Interior further canceled the registration of 15 more NGOs, including educational and community health organizations. Since the end of October 2023, Nicaragua experienced the dismissal of more than 1,100 judicial officials, notably affecting the Supreme Court’s administration. Additionally, the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo removed at least 2,000 public employees, including high-ranking officials, and continued targeted actions against local officials, exemplified by the arrest of the mayor of Jalapa and the dismissal of the mayor of Siuna. Also notable was the removal of Carlos Alberto Cerda Gaitán from his position as vice minister for international affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Liberia

For Liberia, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in July: Activists in Liberia continued to advocate for the establishment and operation of the War and Economic Crimes Court, emphasizing accountability for atrocities committed during the 14-year civil war. Women’s rights activists have demanded the Boakai-Koung administration grant safe abortion rights for health and safety purposes. Additionally, protests and go-slow actions by health workers at Tellewoyan Hospital resulted in the death of a one-year-old child, highlighting healthcare workers’ grievances.

  • Censorship in June: The Liberia Broadcasting System allegedly blocked a paid jingle from the opposition Coalition for Democratic Change, and the manager of Radio Kakata was suspended by a county superintendent, actions which raised concerns about media impartiality and independence. The Liberia Telecommunications Authority fined Lonestar MTN and Orange Liberia for regulatory violations and threatened several major radio stations with shutdowns for non-compliance.

  • Corruption in June and July: A corruption scandal surfaced around the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Authority (NaFAA) involving the alleged misapplication of US$831,000 from the World Bank-funded Liberia Sustainable Management of Fisheries Project (LSMFP). The Ministry of Finance and Development Planning (MFDP) requested the prosecution of officials involved in the unauthorized purchase and payment of US$145,000 for two 32-seat buses from Duke CARMAX, Inc. The Monrovia City Court remanded the former Religious Advisor to ex-President George Weah for defrauding individuals of over $87,300 under the pretense of facilitating travel arrangements. The Ministry of Public Works is under investigation by the Liberian Senate for corruption concerning substantial payments made to construction companies for incomplete road development projects, leading to significant financial losses. The Karnplay City Magisterial Court is implicated in corruption for releasing pharmaceutical drugs under dubious circumstances to cross-border illegal medicine traders. Several former officials from ex-President George Weah’s administration were arrested on charges related to economic sabotage, theft of public funds, and illegal disbursement. Chinese national Gao Feng and associates were indicted for leading an illegal mining operation in Liberia, involving economic sabotage and tax evasion. President Joseph Boakai’s administration faced scrutiny over the acquisition of earth-moving equipment without proper legislative approval. Former officials of the Plan Parenthood Association of Liberia were convicted of misapplying funds, and an audit report revealed significant irregularities at the Central Bank of Liberia.

  • Protests in May: The events in Liberia included protests and significant disruption at ArcelorMittal Liberia’s sites in Yekepa, Nimba County, due to demands for better social services by traditional masquerades. Workers of the Mano Palm Oil Plantation Company in Bomi and Grand Cape Mount Counties protested for delayed labor benefits and local management takeover. Multiple protests were held at the Monrovia Consolidated School System over administrative proceedings and a renovation budget, with demands for the removal of an official. Rioters in Paynesville resisted a court-ordered eviction, resulting in property destruction. Additionally, aggrieved employees of Royal Communications Incorporated engaged in a go-slow action for unpaid salaries.

  • Purge/Replace in June: President Joseph Boakai suspended the Director General of the Liberia Drug Enforcement Agency (LDEA) and his two deputies due to escalating tensions among the officials. The Minister of Labor terminated the services of five employees for impersonation and illegal activities in Gbarpolu County. President Boakai also relieved the President of the University of Liberia following demands from the University of Liberia Faculty and Staff Association. The High Command of the Armed Forces of Liberia discharged four personnel for conduct unbecoming and violations of the Constitution. The Director-General of the National Public Health Institute of Liberia resigned, citing her significant achievements during her tenure.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Colombia

Colombia’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Algeria

For Algeria, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in July: A significant corruption investigation involving 14 officials and former members of the Algerian Football Federation was underway, focusing on the deliberate squandering of public funds and awarding unjustified privileges. The manipulation of imported car invoices and tax evasion involving customs officials led to billions of dinars being squandered through fraudulent vehicle imports and the use of forged documents. Additionally, a former Amir and municipal officials in Khincha were convicted for inflating invoices and falsifying transactions, resulting in a one-year prison sentence, fines, and financial compensation. An individual was arrested for online fraud related to digital currency trading, and a judicial investigation into several former officials of the Algerian Football Federation for quasi-corruption was initiated by the Financial Crimes Task Force.

  • Security Mobilization in June: The Directorate-General for Civil Protection installed a comprehensive beach security system across 14 coastal states, deploying over 10,107 personnel to guard 456 beaches in preparation for the summer season. The National People’s Army received significant reinforcements with new forces composed of young women trained in various military and scientific disciplines. A large-scale operation by consumer protection and security services in the wilaya of Annaba led to the seizure of 2. 2 tons of unfit sheep meat during the Aïd El Adha period. The Conservation of Forests of the wilaya of Tlemcen deployed 12 mobile teams to facilitate a campaign focused on the prevention and fight against forest fires. The Special Intervention Unit of the National Gendarmerie conducted a high-profile exercise at the Huare Boumedien International Airport, simulating a civilian transport aircraft hijacking and hostage situation.

  • Purge/Replace in July: Algeria decided to withdraw its ambassador from Paris in response to France’s recognition of the Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara, garnering extensive support from multiple Algerian political parties and institutions. Additionally, the President of the General Manager of the Al-Suntarak complex rejected the resignation of the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Republic of Algeria following a meeting to discuss issues within the organization.

  • Lethal Violence in July: In Algeria, a detachment of the National People’s Army (ANP) killed three terrorists in the town of Tachta Zougagha, Ain Defla, as part of a counter-terrorism operation. Additionally, during a search operation by the ANP in Khenchela, two terrorists were killed. In Tiaret State, a 15-year-old minor committed suicide by hanging, with investigations ongoing to determine the reasons behind the tragic incident.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.