Relationship Between Property Tax Revenue and HPI

Pct Change

##  pct_change_prop_tax pct_change_pop   pct_change_hpi  
##  Min.   :-0.976      Min.   :-0.997   Min.   :-0.418  
##  1st Qu.: 0.487      1st Qu.:-0.012   1st Qu.: 0.175  
##  Median : 0.876      Median : 0.092   Median : 0.343  
##  Mean   : 1.327      Mean   : 0.323   Mean   : 0.394  
##  3rd Qu.: 1.468      3rd Qu.: 0.290   3rd Qu.: 0.582  
##  Max.   :76.957      Max.   :35.207   Max.   : 4.056  
##                      NA's   :12
## 
## ======================================================================
##                                       Dependent variable:             
##                           --------------------------------------------
##                                   % Chng Prop Tax (2002-2017)         
##                             (1)      (2)      (3)      (4)      (5)   
## ----------------------------------------------------------------------
## % Chng Pop (2000-2020)    0.561***          0.551*** 0.527*** 0.523***
##                           (0.025)           (0.026)  (0.026)  (0.026) 
##                                                                       
## % Chng HPI (2002-2017)             0.547*** 0.273**   -0.155   -0.267 
##                                    (0.130)  (0.107)  (0.158)  (5.087) 
##                                                                       
## Constant                  1.120*** 1.111*** 1.015***  0.761    0.826  
##                           (0.035)  (0.066)  (0.054)  (0.722)  (2.997) 
##                                                                       
## ----------------------------------------------------------------------
## State FE                     No       No       No      Yes      Yes   
## State FE * Pct Change HPI    No       No       No       No      Yes   
## Observations               3,777    3,789    3,777    3,777    3,777  
## R2                         0.114    0.005    0.115    0.159    0.193  
## ======================================================================
## Note:                                      *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Levels

## 
## =================================================================
##                              Dependent variable:                 
##              ----------------------------------------------------
##                                  Prop Tax Rev                    
##                    (1)              (2)                (3)       
## -----------------------------------------------------------------
## city_hpi      85,771.000***    -59,425.000***      -7,758.600    
##               (26,649.000)      (16,601.000)      (19,436.000)   
##                                                                  
## pop_10k                      13,468,887.000***  13,495,301.000***
##                                (117,062.000)      (117,723.000)  
##                                                                  
## Constant      -121,289.000   -18,872,321.000***  -7,367,080.000  
##              (6,441,797.000)  (4,005,607.000)   (44,262,048.000) 
##                                                                  
## -----------------------------------------------------------------
## State FE           No                No                Yes       
## Observations      8,255            8,216              8,216      
## R2                0.001            0.618              0.625      
## =================================================================
## Note:                                 *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Try to see if relationship is stronger in some states than others

## 
## ========================================================================
##                                        Dependent variable:              
##                           ----------------------------------------------
##                                    % Chng Prop Tax (2002-2017)          
##                             (1)      (2)       (3)       (4)      (5)   
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------
## % Chng Pop (2000-2020)    0.561***          0.562***  0.536***  0.523***
##                           (0.025)            (0.026)   (0.026)  (0.026) 
##                                                                         
## % Chng HPI (2002-2017)             0.786*** 0.568***    0.257    -0.267 
##                                    (0.159)   (0.129)   (0.196)  (5.087) 
##                                                                         
## Indicator for CA                    0.481   1.028***   1.396*    1.085  
##                                    (0.300)   (0.244)   (0.761)  (3.006) 
##                                                                         
## pct_change_hpi:ca1                 -0.922** -1.508*** -1.160***  -0.618 
##                                    (0.365)   (0.297)   (0.329)  (5.094) 
##                                                                         
## Constant                  1.120*** 1.041*** 0.912***    0.525    0.826  
##                           (0.035)  (0.071)   (0.057)   (0.724)  (2.997) 
##                                                                         
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------
## State FE                     No       No       No        Yes      Yes   
## State FE * Pct Change HPI    No       No       No        No       Yes   
## Observations               3,777    3,789     3,777     3,777    3,777  
## R2                         0.114    0.007     0.121     0.162    0.193  
## ========================================================================
## Note:                                        *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Regression (% Change Prop Tax ~ % Change HPI) by State

Keep only states with non-NA p-values

HPI Elasticities to Dollar Amounts

California

Median home price in California in 2020 from CalMatters: $758,990

Measure Avg 2021 Value Elasticity w/HPI Median Home Price (2020)
Total Salary $127,694 0.0401 $758,990
Overtime Pay $23,285 0.1096 $758,990

National

Median Home Price from FRED: $387,900

Measure Avg 2021 Value Elasticity w/HPI Median Home Price (2020)
Total Salary $81,704 0.0485 $387,900

Are Senior Officers Getting Disproportionate Increases in Pay?

Previous analysis: https://rpubs.com/lkiena12/nov_2023_transcal_eda. I look at the most highly paid police officers in 2016 (top quintile at their agency) who are still in the data in 2021 and compare their total pay growth relative to the lowest paid police officers (bottom quintile).

Quintile Avg % Salary Growth Avg Dollar Salary Growth Avg % Base Growth Avg Dollar Base Growth Avg % OT Growth Avg Dollar OT Growth Count of Persons
Top Quintile 15% $18,964 21% $18,470 2% $494 501
Bottom Quintile 44% $36,410 36% $27,043 402% $9,367 481