The State of Climate Policy

class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide

.title[
# The State of Climate Policy
]
.subtitle[
## Climate Policy and Politics in US State Legislatures, 2011 to 2023
]
.author[
### Boris Shor and Jennifer Clark
]
.date[
### September 5, 2024
]

---

---
# California enacts SB 253, October 2023

---
# Recent Policies

- 2023
  - SB 704: Harder to build oil and gas developments off coast
  - SB 253: Mandatory emissions transparency for large companies
  - AB 1373: Allowing state to sign long-term electricity contracts with wind and geothermal projects
  - AB 579: All school buses zero emission by 2035
  - AB 1389: Targets for electriv vehicle charging stations
  - SB 619: Speed up permitting for electric lines
- 2022
  - AB 1279: Carbon neutrality by 2045
  - AB 1020: Target 90% of electricity from clean sources by 2035 and 95% by 2040

---
# States are where the action is

- Policy gridlock much more likely in Washington compared to states
- Regulation of energy and environment is frequently most done at the state level
- Lower level governments are at the control of states
  
---
# Diffusion

- Policies spread to 'similar' states
  - New York, Washington, and Massachusetts are going to follow California
  - Louisiana, Florida, Georgia are going to follow Texas
- Policies spread to federal government depending on the presidential administration

---
# New Big Data on Roll Call Votes and Bills

New data on *all* roll call votes and bills in 50 states between 2011 and 2023
- 1.13m bills
- 688k roll calls on floor
  - All vote types: amendments, early stage, final passage
- Today we are presenting work aggregated at various levels:
  - Roll call, chamber, state, individual legislator

---
# Challenge 1: How to find climate bills?

Two strategies: automated and human expert-coded

- Keyword-assisted topic modeling (Eshima, Imai, and Sasaki 2024)
  - 110k bills on climate, energy, environment
  - Automated topic modeling
- Center for New Energy Economy at Colorado State
  - 40k bills
  - Manually coded by expert team with detailed codes

---
# Topic Model Data

Table: Topic Modeling Data Summary

|Subset        |   Bills| Cmte Roll Calls| Floor Roll Calls| Cmte Votes| Floor Votes|
|:-------------|-------:|---------------:|----------------:|----------:|-----------:|
|All           | 109,983|          39,476|           57,078|    444,442|   4,050,501|
|Non-unanimous |  18,694|          13,524|           28,739|    163,019|   2,254,734|
|Passed        |  21,674|          22,370|           44,594|    251,881|   3,078,505|
|Failed        |  88,309|          17,107|           12,485|    192,561|     971,996|

---
# Subject coding: automated vs human expert

- If experts code a bill about energy and climate, the topic model agrees 69% of the time. If they don't, the topic model agrees 94% of the time

---
# Challenge 2: Bill content

- We find many thousands of these bills. But what's in them?
- Even if we know the *policy area* we don't know in which *direction* policy is being made
- Alternative strategy is to use contextual data, mostly from bill sponsors
  - Bill-level data
    - Good: Sponsor partisanship - Democratic only, Republican only, Bipartisan
    - Better: Sponsor ideology - median sponsor's ideal point
      - Shor-McCarty scores (2011, 2022)

---
# Partisanship of Bills that Passed

- Unified legislatures are more likely to pass majority bills, but bipartisan bills are quite common

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" alt="Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates</p>
</div>

---
# Sponsor ideology of bills that passed

- Of the bills that pass, moderate and ideological bills do well, depending on the context
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" alt="Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates, By Ideology" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates, By Ideology</p>
</div>

---
# Cumulative Outcomes

- If we look at all bills cumulatively, moderate bills account for half the total

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" alt="Bill Outcomes by Ideology" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Bill Outcomes by Ideology</p>
</div>

---
# Trends

- Nevertheless the trend is for the average climate and energy bill to be more liberal over time

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" alt="Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time</p>
</div>

---
# Trends by Legislative Context (Passed)

- This trend of increased liberalism is most pronounced in Democratic legislatures
- Bills passed in Republican legislatures are fairly moderate by comparison

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" alt="Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time by Majority Party" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time by Majority Party</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: Northeast

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, Northeast" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, Northeast</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: Midwest

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, Midwest" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, Midwest</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: South

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, South" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, South</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: West

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, West" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, West</p>
</div>

---
# Median bill sponsor by state

- The average climate bill tracks state legislative ideology, but shaded to the left
- Compare California and Texas

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" alt="Median Sponsor" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Median Sponsor</p>
</div>

---
# Majority Rolls by Majority Party and Bill Sponsor Party

- Democratic bills do surpisingly well in Republican legislatures, and this is partly do the vastly higher rate at which these majorities are rolled

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="data:image/png;base64,#shor-clark-apsa-2024_short_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" alt="Majority Party Rolls by Majority and Sponsor Party" width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Majority Party Rolls by Majority and Sponsor Party</p>
</div>

---
# Legislator-level vote model (distance measure)

- We model legislative votes on climate bills as a function of the (absolute) distance between the legislator and the bill sponsor
- We control for district opinion measured via Republican presidential vote share
- As distance goes up, the legislator is less likely to vote for the bill

<div id="xrcnlhwirb" style="padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:10px;overflow-x:auto;overflow-y:auto;width:auto;height:auto;">
<style>#xrcnlhwirb table {
  font-family: system-ui, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji';
  -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;
  -moz-osx-font-smoothing: grayscale;
}

#xrcnlhwirb thead, #xrcnlhwirb tbody, #xrcnlhwirb tfoot, #xrcnlhwirb tr, #xrcnlhwirb td, #xrcnlhwirb th {
  border-style: none;
}

#xrcnlhwirb p {
  margin: 0;
  padding: 0;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_table {
  display: table;
  border-collapse: collapse;
  line-height: normal;
  margin-left: auto;
  margin-right: auto;
  color: #333333;
  font-size: 16px;
  font-weight: normal;
  font-style: normal;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  width: auto;
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #A8A8A8;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #A8A8A8;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 2px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_caption {
  padding-top: 4px;
  padding-bottom: 4px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_title {
  color: #333333;
  font-size: 125%;
  font-weight: initial;
  padding-top: 4px;
  padding-bottom: 4px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-bottom-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-bottom-width: 0;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_subtitle {
  color: #333333;
  font-size: 85%;
  font-weight: initial;
  padding-top: 3px;
  padding-bottom: 5px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-top-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-top-width: 0;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_heading {
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  text-align: center;
  border-bottom-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_bottom_border {
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_col_headings {
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_col_heading {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: normal;
  text-transform: inherit;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: bottom;
  padding-top: 5px;
  padding-bottom: 6px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  overflow-x: hidden;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_column_spanner_outer {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: normal;
  text-transform: inherit;
  padding-top: 0;
  padding-bottom: 0;
  padding-left: 4px;
  padding-right: 4px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_column_spanner_outer:first-child {
  padding-left: 0;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_column_spanner_outer:last-child {
  padding-right: 0;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_column_spanner {
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: bottom;
  padding-top: 5px;
  padding-bottom: 5px;
  overflow-x: hidden;
  display: inline-block;
  width: 100%;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_spanner_row {
  border-bottom-style: hidden;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_group_heading {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: initial;
  text-transform: inherit;
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: middle;
  text-align: left;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_empty_group_heading {
  padding: 0.5px;
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: initial;
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: middle;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_from_md > :first-child {
  margin-top: 0;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_from_md > :last-child {
  margin-bottom: 0;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_row {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  margin: 10px;
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 1px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 1px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 1px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  vertical-align: middle;
  overflow-x: hidden;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_stub {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: initial;
  text-transform: inherit;
  border-right-style: solid;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_stub_row_group {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  font-size: 100%;
  font-weight: initial;
  text-transform: inherit;
  border-right-style: solid;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  vertical-align: top;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_row_group_first td {
  border-top-width: 2px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_row_group_first th {
  border-top-width: 2px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_summary_row {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  text-transform: inherit;
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_first_summary_row {
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_first_summary_row.thick {
  border-top-width: 2px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_last_summary_row {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_grand_summary_row {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  text-transform: inherit;
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_first_grand_summary_row {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-top-style: double;
  border-top-width: 6px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_last_grand_summary_row_top {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
  border-bottom-style: double;
  border-bottom-width: 6px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_striped {
  background-color: rgba(128, 128, 128, 0.05);
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_table_body {
  border-top-style: solid;
  border-top-width: 2px;
  border-top-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-bottom-style: solid;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_footnotes {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-bottom-style: none;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 2px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_footnote {
  margin: 0px;
  font-size: 90%;
  padding-top: 4px;
  padding-bottom: 4px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_sourcenotes {
  color: #333333;
  background-color: #FFFFFF;
  border-bottom-style: none;
  border-bottom-width: 2px;
  border-bottom-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-left-style: none;
  border-left-width: 2px;
  border-left-color: #D3D3D3;
  border-right-style: none;
  border-right-width: 2px;
  border-right-color: #D3D3D3;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_sourcenote {
  font-size: 90%;
  padding-top: 4px;
  padding-bottom: 4px;
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_left {
  text-align: left;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_center {
  text-align: center;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_right {
  text-align: right;
  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_font_normal {
  font-weight: normal;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_font_bold {
  font-weight: bold;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_font_italic {
  font-style: italic;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_super {
  font-size: 65%;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_footnote_marks {
  font-size: 75%;
  vertical-align: 0.4em;
  position: initial;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_asterisk {
  font-size: 100%;
  vertical-align: 0;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_indent_1 {
  text-indent: 5px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_indent_2 {
  text-indent: 10px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_indent_3 {
  text-indent: 15px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_indent_4 {
  text-indent: 20px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .gt_indent_5 {
  text-indent: 25px;
}

#xrcnlhwirb .katex-display {
  display: inline-flex !important;
  margin-bottom: 0.75em !important;
}

#xrcnlhwirb div.Reactable > div.rt-table > div.rt-thead > div.rt-tr.rt-tr-group-header > div.rt-th-group:after {
  height: 0px !important;
}
</style>
<table class="gt_table" data-quarto-disable-processing="false" data-quarto-bootstrap="false">
  <thead>
    <tr class="gt_col_headings">
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id=" "> </th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Democratic">Democratic</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bipartisan">Bipartisan</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Republican">Republican</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody class="gt_table_body">
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">District Presidential Vote</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.101***</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.060***</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.047**</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left"></td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.008)</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.010)</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.015)</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">Legislator-Bill Ideological Distance</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.173***</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.204***</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.218***</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;"></td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.007)</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.009)</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.012)</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">N</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">86,034</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">78,902</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">37,355</td></tr>
  </tbody>
  <tfoot class="gt_sourcenotes">
    <tr>
      <td class="gt_sourcenote" colspan="4">Standard errors displayed in parens. *p<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001</td>
    </tr>
  </tfoot>
  
</table>
</div>

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Thanks!

Next Steps and Questions

Boris: [**bshor@uh.edu**](mailto:bshor@uh.edu) and [**@bshor**](https://twitter.com/bshor)
Jennifer: [**jclar2@uh.edu**](mailto:jclar2@uh.edu)