The State of Climate Policy

class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide

.title[
# The State of Climate Policy
]
.subtitle[
## Climate Policy, Politics, and Opinion in the US States, 2011 to 2023
]
.author[
### Boris Shor and Jennifer Clark
]
.date[
### September 5, 2024
]

---

---
# California enacts SB 253, October 2023

---
# Recent Policies

- 2023
  - SB 704: Harder to build oil and gas developments off coast
  - SB 253: Mandatory emissions transparency for large companies
  - AB 1373: Allowing state to sign long-term electricity contracts with wind and geothermal projects
  - AB 579: All school buses zero emission by 2035
  - AB 1389: Targets for electriv vehicle charging stations
  - SB 619: Speed up permitting for electric lines
- 2022
  - AB 1279: Carbon neutrality by 2045
  - AB 1020: Target 90% of electricity from clean sources by 2035 and 95% by 2040

---
# States are where the action is

- Policy gridlock much more likely in Washington compared to states
- Regulation of energy and environment is frequently most done at the state level
- Lower level governments are at the control of states
  
---
# Diffusion

- Policies spread to 'similar' states
  - New York, Washington, and Massachusetts are going to follow California
  - Louisiana, Florida, Georgia are going to follow Texas
- Policies spread to federal government depending on the presidential administration

---
# Dogs That Don't Bark: Policies that **Don't** Happen

---
# New Big Data on Roll Call Votes and Bills

New data on *all* roll call votes and bills in 50 states between 2011 and 2023
- 1.13m bills
- 688k roll calls on floor
  - All vote types: amendments, early stage, final passage
- Today we are presenting work aggregated at various levels:
  - Roll call, chamber, state, individual legislator

---
# Challenge 1: How to find climate bills?

- Our paper
  - Keyword-assisted topic modeling (Eshima, Imai, and Sasaki 2024)
    - 110k bills on climate, energy, environment
    - Automated topic modeling
  - Center for New Energy Economy at Colorado State
    - 40k bills
    - Manually coded by expert team with detailed codes
- Other approaches
  - NCSL Climate and Energy bill tracker (hundreds of bills)
  - Keyword search (thousands of bills)

---
# Comparison of subject coding

---
# Challenge 2: Bill content

- We find many thousands of these bills. But what's in them?
  - Too many to read
  - Too difficult to parse from bill text
- Even if we know the *policy area* we don't know in which *direction* policy is being made
- Alternative strategy is to use contextual data, mostly from bill sponsors
  - Bill-level data
    - Good: Sponsor partisanship - Democratic only, Republican only, Bipartisan
    - Better: Sponsor ideology - median ideal point
      - Shor-McCarty scores (2011, 2022)

---
# Topic Model Data

Table: Topic Modeling Data Summary

|Subset        |   Bills| Cmte Roll Calls| Floor Roll Calls| Cmte Votes| Floor Votes|
|:-------------|-------:|---------------:|----------------:|----------:|-----------:|
|All           | 109,983|          39,476|           57,078|    444,442|   4,050,501|
|Non-unanimous |  18,694|          13,524|           28,739|    163,019|   2,254,734|
|Passed        |  21,674|          22,370|           44,594|    251,881|   3,078,505|
|Failed        |  88,309|          17,107|           12,485|    192,561|     971,996|

---
# Baseline: Partisan Control of Legislatures, 2011-2023

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/Leg-Control-1.png" alt="Legislative Control Measured in State-Years, by Partisan Control" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Legislative Control Measured in State-Years, by Partisan Control</p>
</div>

---
# Most bills fail

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.png" alt="Bill Outcomes" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Bill Outcomes</p>
</div>

---
# Bill Introductions

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png" alt="Introduced" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Introduced</p>
</div>

---
# Bills that Passed

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png" alt="Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates</p>
</div>

---
# Sponsor ideology

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png" alt="Introduced Bills by Sponsor Ideology" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Introduced Bills by Sponsor Ideology</p>
</div>

---
# Sponsor ideology of bills that passed

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-10-1.png" alt="Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates, By Ideology" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Passed Bill Sponsorship Rates, By Ideology</p>
</div>

---
# Cumulative Outcomes

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" alt="Bill Outcomes by Ideology" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Bill Outcomes by Ideology</p>
</div>

---
# Trends

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" alt="Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time</p>
</div>

---
# Trends by Legislative Context (Passed)

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" alt="Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time by Majority Party" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Average Passed Bill Sponsor Ideology over Time by Majority Party</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: Northeast

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, Northeast" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, Northeast</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: Midwest

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, Midwest" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, Midwest</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: South

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, South" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, South</p>
</div>

---
# State Trends: West

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" alt="State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, West" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">State Bill Sponsorship Trends by State, West</p>
</div>

---
# Median bill sponsor by state

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" alt="Median Sponsor" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Median Sponsor</p>
</div>

---
# Majority Rolls by Majority Party and Bill Sponsor Party

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="shor-clark-apsa-2024_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" alt="Majority Party Rolls by Majority and Sponsor Party" width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Majority Party Rolls by Majority and Sponsor Party</p>
</div>

---
# Legislator-level vote model (cardinal measure)

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      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Democratic">Democratic</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bipartisan">Bipartisan</th>
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    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">District Presidential Vote</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.121***</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">0.030**</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">0.144***</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left"></td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.008)</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.011)</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.013)</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">Legislator Conservatism</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.132***</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.134***</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">0.000</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;"></td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.007)</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.010)</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.013)</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">N</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">86,034</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">78,902</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">37,355</td></tr>
  </tbody>
  <tfoot class="gt_sourcenotes">
    <tr>
      <td class="gt_sourcenote" colspan="4">Standard errors displayed in parens. *p<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001</td>
    </tr>
  </tfoot>
  
</table>
</div>

---
# Legislator-level vote model (distance measure)

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</style>
<table class="gt_table" data-quarto-disable-processing="false" data-quarto-bootstrap="false">
  <thead>
    <tr class="gt_col_headings">
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_left" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id=" "> </th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Democratic">Democratic</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Bipartisan">Bipartisan</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" scope="col" id="Republican">Republican</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody class="gt_table_body">
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">District Presidential Vote</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.101***</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.060***</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.047**</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left"></td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.008)</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.010)</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">(0.015)</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">Legislator-Bill Ideological Distance</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.173***</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.204***</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">-0.218***</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;"></td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.007)</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.009)</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: #000000;">(0.012)</td></tr>
    <tr><td headers=" " class="gt_row gt_left">N</td>
<td headers="Democratic" class="gt_row gt_center">86,034</td>
<td headers="Bipartisan" class="gt_row gt_center">78,902</td>
<td headers="Republican" class="gt_row gt_center">37,355</td></tr>
  </tbody>
  <tfoot class="gt_sourcenotes">
    <tr>
      <td class="gt_sourcenote" colspan="4">Standard errors displayed in parens. *p<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001</td>
    </tr>
  </tfoot>
  
</table>
</div>

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Thanks!

Next Steps and Questions

Boris: [**bshor@uh.edu**](mailto:bshor@uh.edu) and [**@bshor**](https://twitter.com/bshor)
Jennifer: [**jclar2@uh.edu**](mailto:jclar2@uh.edu)