Paper: Section 2 Figures
Olivia Martin
2024-08-30
California
Heterogeneity over space
Figure 1A: Histogram of Avg Total Police Officer Pay, 2019
Figure 1B: Histogram of Avg Total Police Officer Pay, 2019 (Minus MSA Avg Police Pay)
Figure 1C: Histogram of Avg Total Police Officer Pay, 2019 (Minus MSA Avg Police-Like Pay)
Level Relationships
Outcome variables are an average of 2017-2021 years of data. Census Variables (Log Income and Log Pop) are averages of the 2017-2020 5-Year ACS by the midpoint method that we have used before, where 2020 refers to the 2018-2022 ACS because 2020 is the mid-point year. Violent Crime is per 100,000 residents and is also an average of 2017-2020 data. Dem Vote is the share (from 0 to 1) of the municipality that voted for Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election.
Covariate Averages
| stat | linc | lpop | v_crime | demshare_pres_2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | 10 | 7 | 30 | 0.2 |
| mean | 11 | 11 | 383 | 0.7 |
| max | 12 | 15 | 1590 | 1.0 |
Outcome: Police Pay
##
## ======================================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Police Pay (2017-21 Avg)
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Income 39,257.000*** 36,352.000*** 13,225.000**
## (3,950.000) (4,034.000) (5,175.000)
##
## Log Pop 8,555.000*** 7,718.000*** 7,247.000***
## (1,529.000) (1,172.000) (1,254.000)
##
## Violent Crime -10.000 11.000* 9.000
## (7.000) (6.000) (6.000)
##
## Dem Vote 84,419.000*** 57,427.000*** 18,699.000*
## (9,479.000) (7,774.000) (9,882.000)
##
## Constant -317,875.000*** 34,139.000** 130,397.000*** 71,094.000*** -410,767.000*** -131,962.000**
## (44,759.000) (16,629.000) (3,149.000) (6,409.000) (45,939.000) (60,792.000)
##
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## MSA FE No No No No No Yes
## Observations 221 221 220 224 217 217
## R2 0.300 0.100 0.010 0.300 0.600 0.700
## ======================================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Outcome: Police Employment
##
## ================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ------------------------------------------------------------------
## Police Employment (2017-21 Avg)
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Income -47.000 -17.000 106.000
## (87.000) (101.000) (152.000)
##
## Log Pop 187.000*** 198.000*** 236.000***
## (27.000) (29.000) (37.000)
##
## Violent Crime 0.300** 0.200 0.200
## (0.100) (0.200) (0.200)
##
## Dem Vote 340.000* 113.000 167.000
## (202.000) (195.000) (290.000)
##
## Constant 631.000 -1,934.000*** -8.000 -123.000 -2,001.000* -3,440.000*
## (986.000) (295.000) (58.000) (137.000) (1,151.000) (1,786.000)
##
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## MSA FE No No No No No Yes
## Observations 221 221 220 224 217 217
## R2 0.001 0.200 0.020 0.010 0.200 0.200
## ================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Outcome: Firefighter Pay
##
## ======================================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Fire Pay (2017-21 Avg)
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Income 32,966.000*** 39,278.000*** 10,969.000
## (7,962.000) (8,039.000) (7,416.000)
##
## Log Pop -1,034.000 -3,312.000* -274.000
## (1,843.000) (1,831.000) (1,551.000)
##
## Violent Crime -0.002 -0.005 0.010
## (0.010) (0.010) (0.008)
##
## Dem Vote 61,361.000*** 63,200.000*** 10,963.000
## (19,648.000) (18,061.000) (19,312.000)
##
## Constant -221,867.000** 159,050.000*** 148,818.000*** 108,206.000*** -300,640.000*** -20,930.000
## (89,535.000) (18,742.000) (2,971.000) (13,198.000) (87,877.000) (83,570.000)
##
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## MSA FE No No No No No Yes
## Observations 108 108 108 107 107 107
## R2 0.100 0.003 0.0004 0.090 0.300 0.700
## ======================================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Outcome: Firefighter Employment
##
## =======================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------------------------------------
## Police Employment (2017-21 Avg)
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Income -10.000 -6.000 -16.000
## (12.000) (11.000) (14.000)
##
## Log Pop -2.000 3.000 4.000
## (3.000) (2.000) (3.000)
##
## Violent Crime 0.0001*** 0.0001*** 0.0001***
## (0.00001) (0.00001) (0.00002)
##
## Dem Vote 44.000 42.000* 36.000
## (28.000) (24.000) (36.000)
##
## Constant 140.000 55.000** 26.000*** 2.000 27.000 143.000
## (131.000) (26.000) (3.000) (19.000) (116.000) (157.000)
##
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------
## MSA FE No No No No No Yes
## Observations 108 108 108 107 107 107
## R2 0.006 0.008 0.300 0.020 0.300 0.400
## =======================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01National
Heterogeneity over space
Figure 2A: Histogram of Avg Total Police Officer Pay, 2022
Figure 2B: Histogram of Avg Police Officer Pay, 2022 (Minus MSA Avg Police Pay)
Figure 2C: Histogram of Avg Police Officer Pay, 2022 (Minus MSA Avg Police-Like Pay)
Level Relationships
Note: Outcome variables are a an average of the 2017 and 2022 Census of Government Surveys (as discussed before, the surveys are much more reliable and have much better coverage for the years ending in 2 and 7). Census Variables (Log Income and Log Pop) are averages of the 2017-2020 5-Year ACS by the midpoint method that we have used before, where 2020 refers to the 2018-2022 ACS because 2020 is the mid-point year. Violent Crime is per 100,000 residents and is also an average of 2017-2020 data. Dem Vote is the share (from 0 to 1) of the municipality that voted for Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election.
Covariate Averages
| stat | linc | lpop | v_crime | demshare_pres_2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0.1 |
| mean | 11 | 8 | 460 | 0.5 |
| max | 12 | 16 | 3514 | 1.0 |
Outcome: Police Pay
##
## ========================================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Police Pay (2017-22 Avg)
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Income 29,825.000*** 40,529.000*** 31,826.000***
## (798.000) (3,150.000) (5,790.000)
##
## Log Pop 8,971.000*** 3,638.000*** 3,278.000***
## (196.000) (615.000) (1,173.000)
##
## Violent Crime -8.000*** -4.000* 0.900
## (3.000) (2.000) (4.000)
##
## Dem Vote 55,118.000*** 46,403.000*** 34,722.000***
## (2,540.000) (5,285.000) (13,155.000)
##
## Constant -259,969.000*** -10,556.000*** 85,741.000*** 50,508.000*** -423,752.000*** -319,886.000***
## (8,727.000) (1,696.000) (1,686.000) (1,312.000) (33,384.000) (63,676.000)
##
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## MSA FE No No No No No Yes
## Observations 4,334 4,334 462 2,140 461 344
## R2 0.200 0.300 0.020 0.200 0.500 0.900
## ========================================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Outcome: Police Employment
##
## =================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------------------------------------
## Police Employment (2017-22 Avg)
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
## ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Income 57.000* -472.000 -121.000
## (34.000) (457.000) (175.000)
##
## Log Pop 111.000*** 526.000*** 210.000***
## (9.000) (89.000) (35.000)
##
## Violent Crime 0.500 0.080 0.400***
## (0.300) (0.300) (0.100)
##
## Dem Vote 704.000*** 1,076.000 482.000
## (146.000) (767.000) (397.000)
##
## Constant -562.000 -885.000*** 122.000 -218.000*** -518.000 -1,300.000
## (370.000) (75.000) (180.000) (75.000) (4,848.000) (1,922.000)
##
## ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## MSA FE No No No No No Yes
## Observations 4,334 4,334 462 2,140 461 344
## R2 0.001 0.040 0.005 0.010 0.100 0.700
## =================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Outcome: Firefighter Pay
##
## ========================================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Firefighter Pay (2017-22 Avg)
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Income 38,666.000*** 54,942.000*** 33,615.000***
## (1,568.000) (4,299.000) (6,467.000)
##
## Log Pop 10,602.000*** 2,567.000*** 227.000
## (414.000) (839.000) (1,310.000)
##
## Violent Crime -15.000*** -7.000** -4.000
## (4.000) (3.000) (4.000)
##
## Dem Vote 60,673.000*** 55,576.000*** 52,002.000***
## (3,753.000) (7,213.000) (14,692.000)
##
## Constant -347,490.000*** -22,158.000*** 97,588.000*** 52,855.000*** -565,452.000*** -299,685.000***
## (17,187.000) (3,872.000) (2,158.000) (1,938.000) (45,564.000) (71,116.000)
##
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## MSA FE No No No No No Yes
## Observations 2,237 2,237 462 1,697 461 344
## R2 0.200 0.200 0.030 0.100 0.500 0.900
## ========================================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01Outcome: Firefigter Employment
##
## ================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ------------------------------------------------------------------
## Police Employment (2017-22 Avg)
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Log Income 37.000 -161.000 -66.000
## (24.000) (155.000) (92.000)
##
## Log Pop 81.000*** 200.000*** 101.000***
## (6.000) (30.000) (19.000)
##
## Violent Crime 0.300** 0.100 0.200***
## (0.100) (0.100) (0.060)
##
## Dem Vote 379.000*** 508.000* 225.000
## (64.000) (261.000) (210.000)
##
## Constant -336.000 -686.000*** 77.000 -101.000*** -421.000 -512.000
## (258.000) (56.000) (62.000) (33.000) (1,646.000) (1,015.000)
##
## --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## MSA FE No No No No No Yes
## Observations 2,237 2,237 462 1,697 461 344
## R2 0.001 0.070 0.010 0.020 0.100 0.800
## ================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01