Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

Published

August 31, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Mali, Jamaica, Guatemala, Peru, Dominican Republic, Namibia. We are forecasting major events for Jamaica.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Mali

For Mali, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: In Mali, approximately 8,000 young Red Cross volunteers mobilized for a humanitarian initiative, backed by both the Malian Red Cross and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). These volunteers focused on delivering medical and social support, receiving acknowledgment from prominent national figures and encountering minimal government resistance.

  • Censorship in July: The Malian government revoked the suspension of political parties and associations that had been enforced since April 10, citing public order concerns. Following this reversal, opposition figures have demanded the release of political detainees who were arrested during the period of suspension.

  • Defamation Cases in July: In Mali, Abdel Kader Maiga, a councillor associated with the Prime Minister of the Transition, was sentenced to 4 months in prison by the Court of Appeal for public insults. This sentencing reflects the political dynamics and the conditions surrounding free speech under the country’s transitional government authorities.

  • Disaster in July: In Mali, heavy rains from July 22 to 25, 2024, led to significant flooding in cities including Bla, Koutiala, and the Bamako district, impacting approximately 6,900 people and exacerbating a humanitarian crisis. Additionally, a collision between two buses in central Mali on July 25, 2024, resulted in 16 deaths and 48 injuries, with 6 people seriously injured. On July 13, 2024, a building collapsed in the Lafiabougou district of Ségou causing an unspecified number of victims. Another incident involved a Mi-24 helicopter from the Malian Armed Forces crashing in Kidal city on July 26, 2024, fortunately without any casualties. Furthermore, flooding affected 379 families in the village of N’Péssoba on July 22, 2024.

  • Legal Actions in May, June and July: In Mali, the Supreme Court and Auditor General’s Office initiated investigations into the benefits, allowances, and salaries of National Transitional Council members due to corruption allegations. Concurrently, a Bamako prosecutor announced an investigation into the deaths of nine army candidates in northern Mali, possibly due to jihadist attacks. Additionally, a Bamako court rejected the government’s request to dissolve the SADI party. The Justice Minister announced a special session of the Bamako Court of Justice to tackle corruption and economic crimes. Lastly, a judicial investigation was launched into the desecration of Muslim religious symbols by unidentified individuals. The International Criminal Court found Al Hassan Ag Abdoul Aziz Ag Mohamed Ag Mahmoud guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity related to acts in Timbuktu between April 2012 and January 2013. Additionally, the ICC issued a public arrest warrant for Iyad Ag Ghaly, leader of Ansar Dine, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in northern Mali during the same timeframe. Within Mali, the Special Court of Assizes on corruption and economic and financial delinquency is scheduled to commence its first session in July 2024 in Bamako. Meanwhile, a judge’s decision to grant provisional release to Abdel Kader Maiga, an M5-RFP leader, was contested by a prosecutor’s appeal, resulting in Maiga’s continued detention. The Bamako Military Tribunal held a correctional hearing under the leadership of Prosecutor Colonel Soumaila Bagayogo, addressing three cases within its jurisdiction. In Mali, a series of legal proceedings targeted economic and financial crimes, marking a focused effort by authorities to address corruption and malfeasance. The Special Session of the Court of Assizes opened on July 1, 2024, at the Court of Appeal in Bamako, reviewing 51 cases involving 181 accused of corruption, infringement of public property, and money laundering. Among these, notable cases included the detention of former Minister of Justice Mohamed Ali Bathily under investigation, the sentencing of the mayor of Segué-Iré, Aly Hamadoun Yalcouyé, for fraud related to afforestation projects, the prosecution of an accounting agent from SODIMA-SARL for embezzling over 1 billion FCFA, and the sentencing of Alfousseyni Sissoko, former mayor of Sitakily Rural Commune, for mishandling public contracts and favoritism.

  • Legal Changes in July: The National Transitional Council of Mali adopted a law to ratify a military and technical cooperation agreement with Russia, marking a shift in Mali’s international defense collaborations. Following a three-month suspension, the Mali government reinstated the activities of political parties and associations, indicating progress toward political normalization. Additionally, a commission was established to draft a National Charter for Peace and Reconciliation, reflecting efforts toward national unity. There were also moves to reform the justice sector, focusing on enhancing the independence and efficiency of the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court of Mali. Furthermore, the government implemented a mandate for digital payment for certain public services, aiming to modernize and improve the efficiency of government administrative processes.

  • Lethal Violence in July: In recent events in Mali, more than 20 civilians were killed in an attack by jihadists in the village of Djiguibombo, an area in Central Mali often targeted by violence. Separate attacks by armed groups in the Bandiagara region and specifically in the village of Dimbal led to additional civilian massacres. Furthermore, drone fire in Tinzaouatene resulted in the death of at least six civilians following significant military confrontations in the area that also saw the loss of a commander from the Russian group Wagner amidst fighting against Islamist forces. Additionally, a violent incident during a wedding celebration in Djiguibombo saw multiple civilian fatalities attributed to armed men affiliated with Katiba Macina.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mali.

Jamaica

For Jamaica, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May and July: In Jamaica, residents of Pyramid Point in Ocho Rios initiated a petition demanding the enforcement of stricter housing regulations. Corporate entities, including the Scotiabank Jamaica Foundation and the GraceKennedy Foundation, led notable environmental efforts, such as the Great Mangrove Cleanup and the Kingston Harbour Cleanup Projects, aiming to remove plastic waste from critical natural areas. Additionally, the human rights organization Jamaicans for Justice started a three-year project to enhance human rights protection through education and legal support, despite challenges in cooperation with law enforcement. Meanwhile, the initiative Stand Up For Jamaica, with backing from the German Embassy, launched a project focusing on assisting female victims of domestic abuse in St Thomas and Portland by providing economic empowerment opportunities through cosmetology courses. These events indicate a series of community and organizational actions aimed at addressing environmental, social, and human rights issues within the country. The Court of Appeal upheld the constitutional rights of a female student at Kensington Primary School who was denied access due to her dreadlocked hair, with Culture Minister Olivia Grange supporting the decision and proposing new legislation to end discrimination based on cultural and religious expressions. Following Hurricane Beryl, various organizations and individuals, including the Azan family, Cari-Med Foundation, Food For the Poor, Sandals Foundation, Caribbean Cement Company Limited, Cable & Wireless Charitable Foundation, and Miss Kingston and St Andrew Festival Queen Daindra Harrison, mobilized resources to distribute supplies and food to severely affected communities. Additionally, the Jamaica Environment Trust renewed calls for a moratorium on deep-sea mining, while residents of Clarendon removed debris from Toll Gate Primary School, and a local activist criticized the Anglican Church’s role in the transatlantic slave trade during a notable anniversary service.

  • Censorship in June: The Prime Minister of Jamaica announced measures to address the spread of misinformation on social media. Following public concerns and advocacy group pressures, the Ministry of Health suspended its Yute Expressions Yute Chatz chat line, which was aimed at providing sexual and reproductive health advice to children, due to the content being distributed without adequate parental supervision. Additionally, the Jamaican government implemented a one-year prohibition on several ride-hailing services, including inDrive, Uber, and others, citing national security reasons.

  • Defamation Cases in June: In Jamaica, Opposition Leader Mark Golding has initiated a defamation lawsuit against Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Heroy Clarke, due to alleged defamatory comments made about Golding and his wife in a WhatsApp group. Additionally, the family of Jamaican ska singer Derrick Morgan has filed a defamation lawsuit against Morgan’s daughter, reggae singer Queen Ifrica, accusing her of causing reputational damage through accusations made in 2023.

  • Disaster in July: Hurricane Beryl, a Category 4 storm, hit Jamaica on July 3, causing extensive damage, especially in southern parishes, by uprooting trees, destroying homes, and damaging infrastructure. This led to at least three confirmed deaths and widespread electricity outages, with repair costs for health facilities estimated at $1. 098 billion alongside significant agricultural losses. The aftermath saw further disruption as a tropical wave brought additional flooding and landslides, while a mini tornado in Lucea, Hanover, compounded the destruction. Additionally, a minor earthquake of magnitude 3. 7 struck Kingston, St Andrew, and St Catherine, further challenging the recovery efforts from the hurricane’s impact.

  • Legal Changes in May and June: In Jamaica, the Constitutional Reform Committee submitted its report with recommendations for constitutional reform and a shift towards becoming a republic. Additionally, the Privy Council decided to withdraw its contested Rule 23 proposal, which had raised concerns about violating constitutional rights by limiting appeals. The Ministry of Labour and Social Security is also moving forward with the Occupational Safety and Health Bill to replace the dated Factories Act of 1943. Meanwhile, the Passport, Immigration, and Citizenship Agency is considering six new visa categories to update the country’s National Visa Policy. Finally, the Cabinet has sanctioned an increase in the stipend for jurors, as part of efforts to improve the judicial process. In Jamaica, a proposal for constitutional reform has been put forward by the Constitutional Reform Committee (CRC) aimed at transitioning the country to a republic and drafting a new constitution that reflects the nation’s cultural heritage and aspirations. Additionally, the Prime Minister has announced the need for legislation to ensure a safe online space in Jamaica, focusing on the security of information and transactions while safeguarding freedoms. Proposed amendments to the Jamaica Teaching Council Act, 2022, suggest placing employees on a six-month probation during a transition to a new entity, which has faced opposition. Measures are also being introduced to prevent taxpayer money from being used to bail out troubled financial firms, as announced by the Bank of Jamaica Governor. Furthermore, there are calls for updates to the Larceny Act, including harsher penalties for financial fraud and the establishment of a financial court to specifically address financial crimes.

  • Protests in June: In Jamaica, a strike by public transportation operators led to disruptions across multiple parishes including Kingston, St Catherine, St Ann, and St Mary, leaving many people stranded due to protests against what was seen as an unfair demerit points system and suspension of licenses. Concurrently, in Manchester, the community of Barrett Piece blocked a section of the Kendal main road with stones and debris following the fatal police shooting of a 14-year-old boy, leading to local traffic disruptions. Furthermore, employees of KingAlarm in Kingston demonstrated outside the company’s head office over salary, overtime, working conditions, and allegations of management victimization. The strike also caused several schools in Clarendon, St Andrew, Portland, and St Mary to switch to virtual classes, disrupting the education sector due to the lack of available public transportation.

  • Lethal Violence in May: In Jamaica, there has been a wave of shootings across multiple police divisions on a Tuesday, resulting in at least seven deaths and 11 injuries. Additionally, a journalist was fatally shot in Kingston, with the incident drawing significant attention to concerns regarding public sentiment and press freedom. Another confrontation in downtown Kingston between law enforcement and alleged gunmen led to four individuals dead and a policeman injured, alongside the seizure of illegal firearms. In a separate incident, a female student was fatally stabbed by a male schoolmate at the Catholic College of Mandeville Furthermore, two brothers were shot and killed in Westmoreland while playing dominoes.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q4 2024.

Guatemala

For Guatemala, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: In Guatemala, teachers affiliated with the Education Workers’ Union of Guatemala (STEG), led a protest to deliver a petition encompassing 13 demands, among which was the reinstatement of the School Medical Insurance program. Concurrently, firefighters and the National Council of Protected Areas (Conap) endeavored to mitigate forest fires in Laguna del Tigre National Park, an effort that gained considerable attention due to the viral spread of a video documenting its effect on local fauna. Meanwhile, in a political development, more than ten legislative groups converged to summon the Foreign Affairs Minister for questioning regarding Guatemala’s supportive vote for Palestine at the United Nations. Additionally, Congresswoman Evelyn Morataya faced resistance from health unionists while attempting to oversee the Department of Integrated Health Services Networks in Baja Verapaz.

  • Corruption in May and June: In recent updates from Guatemala, the country was ranked as the fifth highest in terms of corruption perception on the American continent according to the Corruption Perception Index (IPC) 2023, which cites corrupt practices in the last three administrations. The Public Prosecutor’s Office arrested an individual for the illegal sale of books and documents significant to Guatemala’s cultural heritage, suggesting a wider investigation into the protection of national assets. A request for a report on a potential human trafficking network within the Ministry of Communications, Infrastructure, and Housing during previous administrations was made by the National Anti-Corruption Commission. Additionally, legal proceedings have involved former high-profile anti-corruption officials, with Virginia Laparra facing a second trial for alleged disclosure of confidential information and Stuart Campo ordered to appear in court for anomalies in a corruption case, marking his third such accusation by the Public Prosecutor’s Office. The Ministry of Communications, Infrastructure and Housing’s Social Solidarity Fund (FSS) faced scrutiny for alleged inflated project costs in contracts amounting to Q657 million for airfield removal. The Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity (FECI) arrested an individual in connection with financial misconduct within the Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives of Coffee Producers. Additionally, legal processes have commenced against two former mayors for embezzlement and related crimes, including the misuse of funds and illegal appointments in their respective municipalities. In another case, customs fraud involving the illegal entry of goods was uncovered at Puerto Barrios, Izabal, resulting in a significant financial discrepancy.

  • Disaster in June: In Guatemala, heavy rains throughout June 2024 resulted in widespread flooding, river overflows, landslides, and significant infrastructural damage, affecting over 1 million people with thousands evacuated. The country also faced a severe dengue fever outbreak, reporting over 27,000 cases, which notably affected children and adolescents. Additionally, multiple strong earthquakes, including magnitudes up to 4. 9, caused panic and minor infrastructural damage without leading to casualties. Persistent volcanic activity from the Fire Volcano has led to sporadic ashfall, impacting air quality and posing respiratory risks to communities. Severe flooding in Palín, Escuintla, further disrupted traffic and infrastructure, necessitating further evacuations.

  • Legal Actions in May: Guatemala’s Fifth Criminal Court approved the extradition of an individual to the United States on charges related to fentanyl trafficking. The Constitutional Court of Guatemala ruled against the President’s inquiry regarding the feasibility of removing the Attorney General, effectively halting any immediate attempts to do so. A trial began for a group known as Los Samueles, accused of multiple murders and operating a criminal gang. Meanwhile, another court granted house arrest to José Rubén Zamora Marroquín, who remains in custody due to other pending cases. Additionally, the Public Prosecutor’s Office began an inspection in Los Amates, Izabal, after a significant forest fire and the arson of a fuel tank were reported.

  • Legal Changes in May: In Guatemala, President Bernardo Arévalo announced an initiative aimed at reforming the Organic Law of the Public Prosecutor’s Office, focusing on the dismissal of Attorney General Consuelo Porras to improve accountability and the institution’s effectiveness. Additionally, the proposed 5074 initiative, which seeks to set a regulatory framework for a free market, has experienced delays and necessitates extensive training for its proper execution. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court deliberated on an action against the term “private” in the legislation declaring the National Day of Indigenous Languages, considering its effects on media freedom. In economic and tax policy, the SAT board of directors expressed opposition to removing the ISO, advocating that its retention would favor large companies. Furthermore, there are calls for Guatemala to update its road safety laws to align with World Health Organization guidelines, highlighting the need for advancements in public health and safety regulations.

  • Security Mobilization in July: In Guatemala, there was an increased mobilization of the army and police in Huehuetenango to address the conflict between drug traffickers which led to the displacement of Mexican refugees, with around 269 refugees receiving humanitarian aid. President Bernardo Arévalo and the Guatemalan Army coordinated efforts to strengthen border security and aid displaced Mexicans, showing a responsive measure against drug cartel violence. Additionally, an investigation highlighted the deployment of National Civil Police agents to guard 43 delegates of the Congress and Parlacen, shedding light on the government’s prioritization of security resources. In Escuintla, specifically Saint Lucia Cotzumalguapa, brigades from the Ministry of Interior regulated traffic and fortified security to maintain public order following infrastructure damage.

  • Purge/Replace in May: In recent events in Guatemala, the Attorney General and head of the Public Prosecutor’s Office, María Consuelo Porras Argueta, was removed from office as part of a push for legal reform. Additionally, the Minister of Communications, Infrastructure and Housing along with three deputy ministers were dismissed due to issues related to unauthorized payments. Jorge Mondal was removed from his position as President of Banco de los Trabajadores for a second time. Changes also occurred within the military leadership, as Brigadier General Carlos Antonio Medina Juárez was replaced by Colonel Hermelindo Choz Soc as Chief of Staff of the Army. Furthermore, a significant reshuffling of Guatemala’s diplomatic representatives was implemented, replacing appointees from the previous administration with former deputy ministers and net center promoters.

  • Raids in May: Security forces in Guatemala conducted multiple raids across various regions including Izabal, Quetzaltenango, and Santa Rosa, targeting a wide range of criminal activities such as human trafficking, extortion, gangs, organized crime, murder, and robbery. In one specific operation, authorities responded to the murder of a National Civil Police investigator with raids in Quetzaltenango, where they captured evidence linked to a gang suspected of the crime. Additionally, the Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity conducted a raid on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as part of an investigation into high-profile governmental corruption. Meanwhile, an illegal shipment of firearms was intercepted by the National Civil Police at the Port of Santo Tomás de Castilla in Izabal.

  • Non-lethal Violence in July: In Guatemala, a group of residents detained four people and burned a Conap checkpoint in San Andrés, Petén. Another incident occurred in a cevichery in Guatemala City, where an armed attack left four people injured. Additionally, an armed incident in Guatemala City resulted in three people being injured by gunfire while in a taxi. Furthermore, residents of Cross to Dos Aguadas held guards and agents for more than twelve hours, demanding the withdrawal of a mobile phone antenna, which led to the burning of an Inter-Agency Operations Center. A personal violence event was also reported where Guatemalan singer María José was injured by her ex-partner.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Peru

For Peru, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: In recent events in Peru, more than 4,000 students in Lima Metropolitana participated in a campaign against bullying and school violence, which was organized by the Ministry of Education. Artists, fans, and volunteers have created over 30 murals on the pillars of Line 1 of the Lima Metro to commemorate the Bicentennial 2024, aiming to improve aesthetics and reflect national identity. Additionally, in Paracas National Reserve, community members, including Veronica Canelo, have been advocating for the preservation of Laguna Grande, citing its importance as both an ecosystem and a source of income. Meanwhile, in Abancay, there is a push for awareness regarding the city’s garbage accumulation issue due to the closure of its only landfill.

  • Censorship in June: In Peru, President Dina Buluarte confirmed that during a national emergency drill in the Chorrillos district, journalists were restricted from accessing the event by the Ministry of Defence. Separately, Congresswoman Ruth Luque is gathering support for a censure motion against two ministers, the Minister of Education, Morgan Quero, and the Minister of Women, for their refusal to attend special sessions focused on child protection. Additionally, Congresswoman Margot Palacios has advocated for the censure of the Minister of Transport and Communications, Raúl Pérez Reyes, following a lighting system failure at Jorge Chávez International Airport that resulted in the suspension of flights.

  • Corruption in May: In recent developments in Peru, the Office of the Public Prosecutor Specialized in Crimes of Corruption launched a preparatory investigation against former regional governor of Junín, Vladimir Cerrón, and eight former officials over alleged irregularities in a healthcare project. In another case, the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office began preliminary proceedings against Mayor Rennán Espinoza of Puente Piedra for alleged peculated offences tied to the misuse of municipal resources after a significant accident. Furthermore, the Prosecutor’s Office seized over 45 kilograms of gold from the exporting company Trading Express Gold S.A.C., as part of efforts against money laundering. Additionally, Ayacucho Governor Wilfredo Oscorima is under scrutiny for alleged illicit enrichment, declaration omissions, and bribery, particularly regarding the acquisition of luxury items. Congresswoman Magaly Ruiz faces allegations related to funneling funds from her workers to a political campaign in Trujillo, highlighting ongoing investigations into multiple public officials for various offenses.

  • Legal Actions in May and July: In Peru, a constitutional complaint has been filed against President Dina Buluarte for alleged improper passive cohecho related to the Rolex case. This complaint has left her judicial situation to be determined by the Congress of the Republic of Peru. Simultaneously, the legal situation of former National Prosecutor Patricia Benavides has worsened, with allegations surrounding irregularities in contract awards within the Public Prosecutor’s Office. Additionally, Ayacucho Governor Wilfredo Oscorima is under investigation in connection with the Rolex case and Obrainsa case, facing allegations of illicit enrichment. The former regional president of Cusco, Jorge Acurio Tito, is set to begin trial involving corruption charges related to the Via de Avoidação del Cusco project along with the Brazilian company Odebrecht. In another development, prosecutors Rafael Vela Barba and José Domingo Pérez, involved in the Lava Jato investigation, have been criminally charged for allegedly misusing their offices to influence a Supreme Court hearing. In Peru, a new trial has begun against former President Martín Vizcarra, focusing on allegations of accepting bribes from construction companies amounting to S/ 2. 3 million during his time as the regional president of Moquegua. The Special Team of Prosecutors has also initiated 18 investigatory proceedings stemming from the deaths and injuries of 267 citizens in social protests between December 2022 and March 2023, examining the involvement of police and military forces. Meanwhile, the fugitive former regional governor of Junín, Vladimir Cerrón, is facing multiple charges, including involvement in a criminal organization, money laundering, and receiving illicit police protection. Additionally, the judiciary is investigating the governor of Ayacucho, Wilfredo Oscorima, on various corruption charges related to aggravated collusion and unexplained wealth, as well as the former mayor Susana Villarán and others in a corruption case linked to the “Vías Nuevas de Lima” project, which could lead to over US$ 270 million in fines.

  • Legal Changes in May and June: In Peru, congress approved modifications to the Law of the National Harbour System, allowing the National Harbour Authority to grant exclusive operational licenses to private companies, thus impacting port operation regulations. The government enacted Law 32002, authorizing an extraordinary withdrawal from the Private Pension Fund Administration System, which could affect numerous pension contributors. Additionally, a constitutional reform was approved, enabling dual employment for medical and healthcare personnel to potentially address healthcare staffing shortages. A new regulation now requires financial institutions to provide reasons for rejecting credit applications, aiming to increase transparency in the financial sector. Moreover, legislative approval was given for a proposal to implement digital transformations in consular services using technologies like artificial intelligence, intended to enhance public service efficiency for citizens residing abroad. The Congress of Peru passed a bill setting the statute of limitations for crimes against humanity that occurred before July 1, 2022, thereby setting a limit on the prosecution of such crimes. Furthermore, Act No. 32062 was enacted for the expropriation of three buildings to aid in the development of the Marcavalle Ecological Park in Cusco, aimed at ecological improvement and public works sanitation. Additionally, Law 32060 established the National Autonomous University of Chupaca, promoting higher education in the Junín department. Migration Resolution No. 000121-2024 was introduced, mandating Venezuelan citizens to possess a valid passport and visa for entry into Peru from July 2, 2024. Bill 5928 was passed to provide tax exemptions for the newly recognized Chimbote free zone, facilitating economic development and declaring it of national interest.

  • Purge/Replace in May: The Chancellery ended the functions of three ambassadors to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guatemala, and Qatar, indicating a significant reshuffle within the diplomatic corps. The judiciary was requested to suspend the supreme prosecutor for a period of 36 months amid an investigation into alleged criminal activities, pointing towards potential judiciary implications. Furthermore, the resignation of the Ambassador to Spain and the president of the Special Legacy Project, alongside the justified changes within a major political party leading to the resignations of three parliamentarians.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Dominican Republic

For Dominican Republic, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Disaster in July: The powerful Category 5 Hurricane Beryl caused extensive damage across multiple provinces, including landslides, flooding, power cuts, and destruction of infrastructure which resulted in at least six deaths and several missing persons. Additionally, a shipwreck off the coast of Guayacanes, San Pedro de Macorís, involving an illegal vessel headed for Puerto Rico, resulted in the drowning deaths of five people, including a minor, with several individuals still missing despite 43 being rescued. The country also faced health challenges, recording 941 cases of dengue fever and 9 resulting deaths this year. Furthermore, a fire in the warehouse of a construction company in the National District caused significant concern, though no casualties were reported, and another fire in La Romana caused the death of an elderly man and the complete destruction of his home.

  • Legal Changes in June and July: The President promulgated a law aimed at modernizing the administrative regime overseeing the fiscal control of public resources and state assets. Amendments to align the Civil Aviation Law with international standards were approved, enhancing operational security. The draft Penal Code was updated to include new criminal charges and penalties for crimes like genocide and femicide. Additionally, measures to maintain public health and safety led to the prohibition of the use of vapers, hookahs, and the consumption of alcoholic beverages in public spaces in Higüey. Furthermore, a bill was approved that recognizes Baní as the Capital of the Mango, providing incentives for mango producers. The National Congress has been working on a comprehensive reform of the Criminal Code, introducing 72 new articles to address crimes such as genocide, femicide, and state corruption while leaving abortion laws unchanged. Simultaneously, the Chamber of Deputies approved the Tax Responsibility Act to manage public debt more effectively, and the Senate approved the General Law on Public Procurement to increase transparency and fairness in government contracts. Additionally, the Senate passed a bill to establish an Administrative Dispute Court to protect individuals’ rights against public administration actions, and the Ministry of Education submitted a draft Organic Law on Education aimed at overhauling the education system to meet current standards and needs.

  • Purge/Replace in May: In the Dominican Republic, the Central Electoral Board responded to opposition parties’ demands by replacing a significant number of electoral officials due to alleged irregularities in the municipal elections. This included the replacement of 640 presidents and 569 secretaries across various electoral colleges. Additionally, Major General Juan José Otaño Jiménez, the director of the Military Electoral Police, was replaced following criticism from major political parties for anti-democratic actions during recent municipal elections. Multiple resignations within the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD) and the Força del Pueblo (FP) were reported, including notable leaders and a political figure disenchanted with negative campaign strategies, respectively. Furthermore, there was a rotation of commanders within the Specialized Terrestrial Border Security Corps (CESFronT) as directed by the Minister of Defence.

  • Non-lethal Violence in June: In the Dominican Republic, there have been armed robberies at branches of the People’s Bank and Reserve Bank, where large sums of money were stolen, leading to arrests and fatalities during police confrontations. An attempted arson at the Edenorte electricity company premises in Jarabacoa was prevented by law enforcement authorities. A vehicular incident in Villa Altagracia saw an SUV lose control and injure several pedestrians, with victims awaiting further medical updates. Additionally, Santiago and surrounding communities faced multiple armed robberies targeting commercial and residential establishments, resulting in financial losses and community anxiety. Furthermore, an assault on a young woman in Pedro Brand left her with serious injuries, though her health is reportedly improving.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Namibia

For Namibia, our data includes coverage through July 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in June and July: The Namibia Equal Rights Movement has gathered nearly 6,000 signatures for a petition against an anti-LGBTQI+ bill, reflecting widespread anxiety about inclusivity and the safety of vulnerable communities. The High Court’s decision to overturn the sodomy law has been praised as a landmark ruling for LGBTQI+ rights. Meanwhile, social justice activism has been prominent, with Michael Amushelelo highlighting the urgency of addressing youth unemployment to the parliamentary committee, and a petition has been launched for the implementation of a Universal Basic Income Grant up to the age of 59. Additionally, the Namibian Lives Matter Movement expressed concerns over a Namibia-Botswana joint military campaign, fearing it could exacerbate historical traumas. Walvis Bay residents demonstrated against the operations of RedForce Debt Management, which was acting on behalf of the municipality, resulting in petitions being delivered to Mayor Trevino Forbes. Separately, learners from Gabriel Taapopi Secondary School initiated a major road safety advocacy effort to reduce road crashes across Namibia. In addition, the Kwe Chieftainship Committee from Bwabwata National Park petitioned for a local chief to better represent the residents of the Zambezi and Kavango East regions. The Ministry of Mines and Energy responded to public discontent by cancelling a planned 8% electricity tariff hike for the 2024/25 year, supported by a significant government subsidy. Lastly, traditional singer-songwriter Isak Nelumbu highlighted the neglect of artists and entertainers in Namibia, specifically their exclusion from mainstream pension systems.

  • Censorship in May and June: In Namibia, the Ministry of Health and Social Services addressed media outlets with a request for the factual reporting of patient health conditions, following specific reports about a patient’s death in Windhoek’s Katutura Health Care Centre. Additionally, the labour commissioner deregistered seven trade unions and one employer’s organization for not submitting their annual returns, impacting their operations. Moreover, Lawyer Marén de Klerk was barred from participating in a High Court case tied to the Fishrot scandal due to provisions in the Prevention of Organised Crime Act, related to his alleged involvement in the scandal and the legalities surrounding the preservation or forfeiture of assets. In Namibia, the High Court issued an order directed at activist Michael Amushelelo, prohibiting him from making defamatory statements about the Namibian Police inspector general, Joseph Shikongo. Additionally, the Electoral Commission of Namibia was found to have unlawfully deregistered the Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters party by cancelling its registration certificate, a move beyond its legal authority.

  • Corruption in May, June and July: In Namibia, Simonis Storm Securities experienced a significant fraud when it was discovered that a former employee had illegally sold or transferred shares worth nearly N$9 million, leading to criminal proceedings. Additionally, the awarding of a N$1. 3 billion tender by the Central Procurement Board of Namibia for pharmaceutical supplies was invalidated by the High Court due to a challenge by a local businessman. Furthermore, the country has reportedly lost over N$1 billion to illicit financial flows related to fraud in clearing and customs as per the Bank of Namibia’s findings. Allegations of corruption have also been raised against high-level officials in connection with a N$451 million medical supply tender. The ongoing Fishrot scandal further illustrates the challenges of corruption within the country, as key figures implicated in the fraud and racketeering case continue legal battles for bail. Liaan de Kock, a former stockbroker, was granted bail after being accused of fraud involving the unauthorized sale of shares worth N$9 million. Additionally, Kelly Nghixulifwa, the former CEO of the Roads Contractor Company, was found guilty of fraud and corruption by the Windhoek High Court. The country’s minister of Mines and Energy addressed allegations of corruption in petroleum exploration license awards. Meanwhile, the president of the Popular Democratic Movement accused the Namibia Central Intelligence Service of destabilizing political parties through financial means. An interim report highlighted procedural and financial irregularities in the appointment of RedForce Debt Management Company as the exclusive debt collector for the Municipality of Walvis Bay. The Fishrot case has seen former attorney general and justice minister, among others, charged with fraud, corruption, and racketeering linked to the misuse of Namibian fishing quotas. Additionally, an accountant is facing fraud charges for his alleged role in a scheme that defrauded over N$100 million through fraudulent loans. The National Unity Democratic Organisation (Nudo) leadership has been accused by a party supporter of misusing N$16 million received from parliament. Furthermore, the Namibia National Paralympic Committee is under scrutiny for power abuse, unconstitutional procedures, and mismanagement of funds as the 2024 Paralympic Games in Paris approach.

  • Defamation Cases in June: A senior police officer, Commissioner Andreas Nelumbu, won a defamation lawsuit against the state-owned newspaper New Era, resulting in a N$50,000 court-ordered payment for defamatory allegations published in September 2022. Additionally, the Former Plan Combatants Association is suing a gay activist, Wendelinus Hamutenya, for N$1. 5 million over allegations made in a TikTok video where he purportedly called former Plan combatants sexually promiscuous and witches.

  • Legal Actions in May and June: In Namibia, a notable case is the “Fishrot” fishing quotas fraud, corruption, and racketeering case, involving multiple individuals facing charges related to corruption. In a separate matter, the Namibia Competition Commission fined several individuals for completing a merger without the required approval, a violation of the Competition Act. The Namibian courts also dealt with appeals and applications concerning penal and civil issues, including a rejected Supreme Court appeal by a former National Assembly member seeking prison release on medical grounds and a final court interdict against a political activist and his supporters for unlawful conduct. Furthermore, an ex-employee of Simonis Storm Securities faced a criminal case for fraudulently transferring ownership of shares worth N$9 million. The High Court convicted a former Roads Contractor Company chief executive of fraud and corruption charges. SWAPO Party members have initiated legal action against their party challenging the postponement of an extraordinary congress. The Supreme Court upheld an eviction order against Menzies Aviation Namibia from Hosea Kutako International Airport. Sentencing for Jandre Dippenaar, convicted of multiple counts including murder, has been postponed. Additionally, the appeal against the conviction and sentencing of Farhan Khatri for rape and human trafficking was dismissed by two High Court judges.

  • Legal Changes in June and July: The High Court of Namibia recently declared the criminalization of sexual acts between men unconstitutional, invalidating common law crimes related to sodomy and “unnatural sexual offenses.” Additionally, the country introduced a national minimum wage to improve living standards across all sectors, despite criticism from some employers about potential economic impacts. An amendment was made to the Tobacco Control Act to include vaping products, addressing health concerns associated with electronic cigarettes and hookahs. Furthermore, a new law on divorce, proposed by the Minister of Justice, aims to modernize Namibia’s divorce laws by expanding the legal framework for marital dissolution. Lastly, a bill regulating the property industry was introduced to provide oversight for property developers, auctioneers, and property managers. The Namibian parliament has introduced a new Marriage Bill that seeks to consolidate the country’s stance on marriage laws by overriding earlier proposals which aimed to criminalize same-sex marriages and restrict civil marriages to opposite-sex couples. Additionally, the government has announced plans to grant the Namibia Film Commission full autonomy to address legal status issues and improve its efficacy. A revised National Housing Policy and its Implementation Action Plan were launched by the Cabinet to tackle housing challenges within Namibia. Moreover, the government has appealed against a High Court judgment that declared the common law crimes of sodomy and “unnatural sexual offences” unconstitutional and invalid, marking a significant moment for the country’s judicial perspective on same-sex relations.

  • Security Mobilization in July: In Namibia, a coordinated operation involving Namibian and Angolan police officers was launched along the border to address and combat motor vehicle thefts in the northern regions, with the aim to recover stolen vehicles and prevent further cross-border crimes. Meanwhile, approximately 120 police officers conducted a high-visibility patrol in Swakopmund to tackle ongoing criminal activities and improve local community relations. Additionally, 49 airport rescue and firefighting trainees were deployed across various airports to enhance safety and emergency response. New police facilities, including a modern station in Okatyali and upgraded infrastructure at the Ongwediva checkpoint, were inaugurated to boost law enforcement capability in the Oshana region, along with the opening of a fully equipped police station in Okatyali to serve remote areas more effectively.

  • Purge/Replace in June and July: In Namibia, McHenry Venaani, president of the Popular Democratic Movement, accused the Namibia Central Intelligence Service of intervening in political affairs by allegedly financially influencing political leaders to undermine opposition parties. Moreover, veterans of the liberation struggle have expressed their dissatisfaction with the Ministry of Defence and Veterans Affairs, requesting the removal of Minister Frans Kapofi and Deputy Hilma Nikanor. In the realm of party politics and public institutions, the Landless People’s Movement confirmed a leadership change, while the former CEO of the Namibia Students Financial Assistance Fund accused the Minister of Higher Education of undue influence leading to her removal. Additionally, the Namibia Tourism Board announced a change in leadership with the resignation of its Chairperson and the appointment of an interim Chairperson. In Namibia, the Namibian Police Force saw a significant reshuffling of its leadership, as announced by the Police Force Inspector-General, impacting the command structure. Additionally, the National Petroleum Corporation (Namcor) suspended its terminal manager due to a theft scandal involving a large quantity of fuel, highlighting issues of corruption within the organization. Furthermore, the IPC faced a scandal related to a no-confidence motion against a mayor, indicating governance challenges. The South West Africa National Union (Swanu) also expelled a faction leader and several members over constitutional non-compliance. Lastly, a notable resignation occurred within the Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF).

  • Raids in May: In Swakopmund and Walvis Bay, Namibia, police conducted a series of raids that resulted in the confiscation of drugs valued at N$718 860. These operations also led to the arrest of three men involved in drug trafficking activities.

  • Lethal Violence in May and June: The murder of Christof Fredricks, with signs of severe hate crimes against the LGBTQI+ community, has been a tragic highlight, alongside a series of violent incidents including the fatal stabbing of a woman at an entertainment venue and a deadly domestic altercation. Additionally, the country continues to face issues related to illegal wildlife activities, as evidenced by the killing of two suspected poachers in Etosha National Park by the anti-poaching unit. Furthermore, a particularly distressing case is under police investigation after the discovery of an infant’s body parts being consumed by pigs, drawing attention to grave concerns within the community. Four inmates at the Ondangwa police holding cells have been charged with the murder of another inmate. Additionally, violence in Swakopmund resulted in the deaths of two men: one trying to prevent vandalism of a taxi and the other killed while returning home from escorting his girlfriend. In the Omusati Region, a dispute between two Angolan nationals ended in fatality and an arrest. Furthermore, a tragic incident occurred in the Sikali village where a man took his own life following allegations of a socially and culturally sensitive nature.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.