Regresion Lineal-Seguros
Rodrigo Arroyo - A01747380
2024-08-19
Modelo Predictivo
lm() es la función de R para ajustar modelos
lineales.
- Es el modelo más básico que existe
- Es muy fácil de interpretar
Para interpretarlo se usa la medida R-cuadrada, que significa qué tan
cerca están los datos de la línea de regresión ajustada.
(Va de 0 a 1, explicando la variabilidad)
Importar base de datos
Entender la Base de Datos
## ClaimID TotalPaid TotalReserves TotalRecovery
## Min. : 777632 Min. : 0 Min. : 0 Min. : 0.00
## 1st Qu.: 800748 1st Qu.: 83 1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 0.00
## Median : 812128 Median : 271 Median : 0 Median : 0.00
## Mean : 1864676 Mean : 10404 Mean : 3368 Mean : 66.05
## 3rd Qu.: 824726 3rd Qu.: 1122 3rd Qu.: 0 3rd Qu.: 0.00
## Max. :62203364 Max. :4527291 Max. :1529053 Max. :100000.00
##
## IndemnityPaid OtherPaid TotalIncurredCost ClaimStatus
## Min. : 0 Min. : 0 Min. : -10400 Length:31619
## 1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 80 1st Qu.: 80 Class :character
## Median : 0 Median : 265 Median : 266 Mode :character
## Mean : 4977 Mean : 5427 Mean : 13706
## 3rd Qu.: 0 3rd Qu.: 1023 3rd Qu.: 1098
## Max. :640732 Max. :4129915 Max. :4734750
##
## IncidentDate IncidentDescription ReturnToWorkDate ClaimantOpenedDate
## Length:31619 Length:31619 Length:31619 Length:31619
## Class :character Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## ClaimantClosedDate EmployerNotificationDate ReceivedDate
## Length:31619 Length:31619 Length:31619
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## IsDenied Transaction_Time Procesing_Time ClaimantAge_at_DOI
## Min. :0.00000 Min. : 0 Min. : 0.00 Min. :14.0
## 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.: 211 1st Qu.: 4.00 1st Qu.:33.0
## Median :0.00000 Median : 780 Median : 10.00 Median :42.0
## Mean :0.04463 Mean : 1004 Mean : 62.99 Mean :41.6
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.: 1440 3rd Qu.: 24.00 3rd Qu.:50.0
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :16428 Max. :11558.00 Max. :94.0
## NA's :614
## Gender ClaimantType InjuryNature BodyPartRegion
## Length:31619 Length:31619 Length:31619 Length:31619
## Class :character Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## BodyPart AverageWeeklyWage1 ClaimID1 BillReviewALE
## Length:31619 Min. : 100.0 Min. : 777632 Min. : -448.0
## Class :character 1st Qu.: 492.0 1st Qu.: 800748 1st Qu.: 16.0
## Mode :character Median : 492.0 Median : 812128 Median : 24.0
## Mean : 536.5 Mean : 1864676 Mean : 188.7
## 3rd Qu.: 492.0 3rd Qu.: 824726 3rd Qu.: 64.1
## Max. :8613.5 Max. :62203364 Max. :46055.3
## NA's :14912
## Hospital PhysicianOutpatient Rx
## Min. : -12570.4 Min. : -549.5 Min. : -160.7
## 1st Qu.: 210.5 1st Qu.: 105.8 1st Qu.: 22.9
## Median : 613.9 Median : 218.0 Median : 61.5
## Mean : 5113.2 Mean : 1813.2 Mean : 1695.2
## 3rd Qu.: 2349.1 3rd Qu.: 680.6 3rd Qu.: 189.0
## Max. :2759604.0 Max. :1219766.6 Max. :631635.5
## NA's :19655 NA's :2329 NA's :20730plot(base_de_datos$ClaimantAge_at_DOI,base_de_datos$TotalIncurredCost, main="Influencia de Edad Reservas Totales en los Costos Totales Incurridos",xlab="Reservas", ylab="Costo Total")
Generar Regresíon (lineal)
regresion <- lm(TotalIncurredCost ~ ClaimStatus + IsDenied + Procesing_Time + ClaimantAge_at_DOI + Gender + BillReviewALE + Hospital + PhysicianOutpatient + ClaimantType
+ InjuryNature + BodyPartRegion + BodyPart, data= base_de_datos)
summary(regresion)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = TotalIncurredCost ~ ClaimStatus + IsDenied + Procesing_Time +
## ClaimantAge_at_DOI + Gender + BillReviewALE + Hospital +
## PhysicianOutpatient + ClaimantType + InjuryNature + BodyPartRegion +
## BodyPart, data = base_de_datos)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -478598 -3785 240 3006 1323680
##
## Coefficients: (6 not defined because of singularities)
## Estimate
## (Intercept) 1.206e+04
## ClaimStatusO 4.551e+05
## ClaimStatusR 2.890e+05
## IsDenied -9.657e+03
## Procesing_Time 3.554e+01
## ClaimantAge_at_DOI 4.598e+01
## GenderMale 1.705e+03
## GenderNot Available 1.307e+03
## BillReviewALE 8.909e-02
## Hospital -2.256e-03
## PhysicianOutpatient -1.115e-02
## ClaimantTypeMedical Only -2.506e+04
## ClaimantTypeReport Only -2.482e+04
## InjuryNatureAmputation 3.738e+04
## InjuryNatureAngina Pectoris -2.053e+04
## InjuryNatureAsbestosis 2.142e+04
## InjuryNatureBurn 2.229e+04
## InjuryNatureCancer 1.061e+04
## InjuryNatureCarpal Tunnel Syndrome 1.914e+03
## InjuryNatureConcussion 1.558e+04
## InjuryNatureContagious Disease 1.884e+04
## InjuryNatureContusion 4.520e+03
## InjuryNatureCrushing 2.985e+03
## InjuryNatureDermatitis 6.426e+02
## InjuryNatureDislocation -1.766e+04
## InjuryNatureDust Disease, NOC 9.757e+03
## InjuryNatureElectric Shock 5.428e+02
## InjuryNatureForeign Body 8.402e+03
## InjuryNatureFracture 4.845e+03
## InjuryNatureHearing Loss Or Impairment -1.268e+03
## InjuryNatureHeat Prostration 7.346e+03
## InjuryNatureHernia 6.208e+02
## InjuryNatureInfection 7.923e+03
## InjuryNatureInflammation 9.167e+03
## InjuryNatureLaceration 4.688e+03
## InjuryNatureLoss of Hearing -1.659e+04
## InjuryNatureMental Stress -3.895e+03
## InjuryNatureMultiple Injuries Including Both Physical and Psychological -1.553e+01
## InjuryNatureMultiple Physical Injuries Only 1.341e+04
## InjuryNatureMyocardial Infarction -1.526e+04
## InjuryNatureNo Physical Injury 4.734e+03
## InjuryNatureNon-Standard Code -1.101e+03
## InjuryNaturePoisoning?Chemical (Other Than Metals) 1.327e+04
## InjuryNaturePuncture 3.297e+03
## InjuryNatureRadiation 6.947e+01
## InjuryNatureRespiratory Disorders 8.279e+03
## InjuryNatureRupture -1.919e+04
## InjuryNatureSeverance 1.444e+04
## InjuryNatureSprain 2.244e+03
## InjuryNatureStrain 1.856e+03
## InjuryNatureSyncope 9.080e+03
## InjuryNatureVision Loss 1.050e+04
## BodyPartRegionLower Extremities 6.661e+03
## BodyPartRegionMultiple Body Parts 2.316e+03
## BodyPartRegionNeck -1.518e+03
## BodyPartRegionNon-Standard Code 2.388e+02
## BodyPartRegionTrunk 4.718e+03
## BodyPartRegionUpper Extremities 4.665e+03
## BodyPartAnkle -1.055e+03
## BodyPartArtificial Appliance 6.652e+02
## BodyPartBody Systems and Multiple Body Systems -1.856e+04
## BodyPartButtocks 2.986e+03
## BodyPartChest -5.219e+02
## BodyPartDisc-Trunk 5.764e+02
## BodyPartEar(S) 4.941e+03
## BodyPartElbow 3.845e+03
## BodyPartEyes -6.889e+02
## BodyPartFacial Bones 4.016e+03
## BodyPartFinger(S) -1.443e+03
## BodyPartFoot -3.527e+03
## BodyPartGreat Toe -6.245e+03
## BodyPartHand -2.433e+03
## BodyPartHeart 3.816e+03
## BodyPartHip 7.205e+03
## BodyPartInsufficient Info to Properly Identify?Unclassified 6.231e+03
## BodyPartInternal Organs 1.024e+04
## BodyPartKnee 2.694e+02
## BodyPartLarynx -1.248e+04
## BodyPartLower Arm -7.106e+02
## BodyPartLower Back Area 4.736e+03
## BodyPartLower Leg -1.616e+03
## BodyPartLumbar and/or Sacral Vertebrae (Vertebra NOC Trunk) 6.981e+03
## BodyPartLungs -5.875e+03
## BodyPartMouth 3.608e+03
## BodyPartMultiple Body Parts (Including Body Systems and Body Parts) 4.297e+03
## BodyPartMultiple Head Injury 4.546e+03
## BodyPartMultiple Lower Extremities 2.510e+04
## BodyPartMultiple Neck Injury 7.364e+03
## BodyPartMultiple Trunk 1.300e+03
## BodyPartMultiple Upper Extremities 3.435e+03
## BodyPartNo Physical Injury NA
## BodyPartNon-Standard Code NA
## BodyPartNose 1.180e+04
## BodyPartPelvis -2.627e+03
## BodyPartSacrum And Coccyx -5.537e+03
## BodyPartShoulder(S) 4.110e+03
## BodyPartSkull -2.530e+03
## BodyPartSoft Tissue-Neck -2.146e+03
## BodyPartSpinal Cord-Trunk 2.422e+04
## BodyPartTeeth NA
## BodyPartThumb -6.651e+02
## BodyPartToes -3.973e+03
## BodyPartTrachea NA
## BodyPartUpper Arm 2.105e+04
## BodyPartUpper Back Area 2.625e+03
## BodyPartUpper Leg NA
## BodyPartWrist NA
## Std. Error
## (Intercept) 1.512e+04
## ClaimStatusO 9.395e+03
## ClaimStatusR 8.201e+03
## IsDenied 3.269e+03
## Procesing_Time 4.061e+00
## ClaimantAge_at_DOI 5.223e+01
## GenderMale 1.198e+03
## GenderNot Available 9.282e+03
## BillReviewALE 6.051e-01
## Hospital 2.000e-02
## PhysicianOutpatient 5.648e-02
## ClaimantTypeMedical Only 1.583e+03
## ClaimantTypeReport Only 3.788e+03
## InjuryNatureAmputation 4.784e+04
## InjuryNatureAngina Pectoris 4.790e+04
## InjuryNatureAsbestosis 3.448e+04
## InjuryNatureBurn 6.383e+03
## InjuryNatureCancer 4.858e+04
## InjuryNatureCarpal Tunnel Syndrome 7.958e+03
## InjuryNatureConcussion 1.434e+04
## InjuryNatureContagious Disease 1.441e+04
## InjuryNatureContusion 3.398e+03
## InjuryNatureCrushing 1.077e+04
## InjuryNatureDermatitis 5.656e+03
## InjuryNatureDislocation 1.072e+04
## InjuryNatureDust Disease, NOC 4.858e+04
## InjuryNatureElectric Shock 1.718e+04
## InjuryNatureForeign Body 5.137e+03
## InjuryNatureFracture 5.085e+03
## InjuryNatureHearing Loss Or Impairment 2.457e+04
## InjuryNatureHeat Prostration 1.856e+04
## InjuryNatureHernia 1.635e+04
## InjuryNatureInfection 1.131e+04
## InjuryNatureInflammation 7.022e+03
## InjuryNatureLaceration 3.963e+03
## InjuryNatureLoss of Hearing 3.014e+04
## InjuryNatureMental Stress 1.402e+04
## InjuryNatureMultiple Injuries Including Both Physical and Psychological 2.409e+04
## InjuryNatureMultiple Physical Injuries Only 6.003e+03
## InjuryNatureMyocardial Infarction 5.849e+04
## InjuryNatureNo Physical Injury 7.801e+03
## InjuryNatureNon-Standard Code 2.419e+04
## InjuryNaturePoisoning?Chemical (Other Than Metals) 1.734e+04
## InjuryNaturePuncture 4.349e+03
## InjuryNatureRadiation 4.773e+04
## InjuryNatureRespiratory Disorders 8.693e+03
## InjuryNatureRupture 2.893e+04
## InjuryNatureSeverance 3.621e+04
## InjuryNatureSprain 4.298e+03
## InjuryNatureStrain 3.530e+03
## InjuryNatureSyncope 1.487e+04
## InjuryNatureVision Loss 4.778e+04
## BodyPartRegionLower Extremities 1.613e+04
## BodyPartRegionMultiple Body Parts 1.642e+04
## BodyPartRegionNeck 2.947e+04
## BodyPartRegionNon-Standard Code 2.937e+04
## BodyPartRegionTrunk 1.595e+04
## BodyPartRegionUpper Extremities 1.478e+04
## BodyPartAnkle 7.729e+03
## BodyPartArtificial Appliance 3.494e+04
## BodyPartBody Systems and Multiple Body Systems 1.116e+04
## BodyPartButtocks 1.180e+04
## BodyPartChest 7.992e+03
## BodyPartDisc-Trunk 1.176e+04
## BodyPartEar(S) 1.878e+04
## BodyPartElbow 5.200e+03
## BodyPartEyes 1.492e+04
## BodyPartFacial Bones 1.565e+04
## BodyPartFinger(S) 3.769e+03
## BodyPartFoot 7.879e+03
## BodyPartGreat Toe 1.455e+04
## BodyPartHand 3.802e+03
## BodyPartHeart 4.807e+04
## BodyPartHip 9.454e+03
## BodyPartInsufficient Info to Properly Identify?Unclassified 9.310e+03
## BodyPartInternal Organs 1.980e+04
## BodyPartKnee 7.313e+03
## BodyPartLarynx 5.407e+04
## BodyPartLower Arm 4.941e+03
## BodyPartLower Back Area 6.877e+03
## BodyPartLower Leg 8.003e+03
## BodyPartLumbar and/or Sacral Vertebrae (Vertebra NOC Trunk) 7.972e+03
## BodyPartLungs 1.152e+04
## BodyPartMouth 1.611e+04
## BodyPartMultiple Body Parts (Including Body Systems and Body Parts) 7.838e+03
## BodyPartMultiple Head Injury 1.488e+04
## BodyPartMultiple Lower Extremities 9.573e+03
## BodyPartMultiple Neck Injury 2.598e+04
## BodyPartMultiple Trunk 1.583e+04
## BodyPartMultiple Upper Extremities 5.825e+03
## BodyPartNo Physical Injury NA
## BodyPartNon-Standard Code NA
## BodyPartNose 1.627e+04
## BodyPartPelvis 1.351e+04
## BodyPartSacrum And Coccyx 2.229e+04
## BodyPartShoulder(S) 3.946e+03
## BodyPartSkull 2.594e+04
## BodyPartSoft Tissue-Neck 2.656e+04
## BodyPartSpinal Cord-Trunk 2.576e+04
## BodyPartTeeth NA
## BodyPartThumb 4.815e+03
## BodyPartToes 1.110e+04
## BodyPartTrachea NA
## BodyPartUpper Arm 6.270e+03
## BodyPartUpper Back Area 9.489e+03
## BodyPartUpper Leg NA
## BodyPartWrist NA
## t value
## (Intercept) 0.797
## ClaimStatusO 48.444
## ClaimStatusR 35.245
## IsDenied -2.954
## Procesing_Time 8.750
## ClaimantAge_at_DOI 0.880
## GenderMale 1.423
## GenderNot Available 0.141
## BillReviewALE 0.147
## Hospital -0.113
## PhysicianOutpatient -0.197
## ClaimantTypeMedical Only -15.833
## ClaimantTypeReport Only -6.552
## InjuryNatureAmputation 0.781
## InjuryNatureAngina Pectoris -0.429
## InjuryNatureAsbestosis 0.621
## InjuryNatureBurn 3.493
## InjuryNatureCancer 0.218
## InjuryNatureCarpal Tunnel Syndrome 0.240
## InjuryNatureConcussion 1.086
## InjuryNatureContagious Disease 1.308
## InjuryNatureContusion 1.331
## InjuryNatureCrushing 0.277
## InjuryNatureDermatitis 0.114
## InjuryNatureDislocation -1.647
## InjuryNatureDust Disease, NOC 0.201
## InjuryNatureElectric Shock 0.032
## InjuryNatureForeign Body 1.636
## InjuryNatureFracture 0.953
## InjuryNatureHearing Loss Or Impairment -0.052
## InjuryNatureHeat Prostration 0.396
## InjuryNatureHernia 0.038
## InjuryNatureInfection 0.701
## InjuryNatureInflammation 1.306
## InjuryNatureLaceration 1.183
## InjuryNatureLoss of Hearing -0.550
## InjuryNatureMental Stress -0.278
## InjuryNatureMultiple Injuries Including Both Physical and Psychological -0.001
## InjuryNatureMultiple Physical Injuries Only 2.235
## InjuryNatureMyocardial Infarction -0.261
## InjuryNatureNo Physical Injury 0.607
## InjuryNatureNon-Standard Code -0.045
## InjuryNaturePoisoning?Chemical (Other Than Metals) 0.765
## InjuryNaturePuncture 0.758
## InjuryNatureRadiation 0.001
## InjuryNatureRespiratory Disorders 0.952
## InjuryNatureRupture -0.663
## InjuryNatureSeverance 0.399
## InjuryNatureSprain 0.522
## InjuryNatureStrain 0.526
## InjuryNatureSyncope 0.611
## InjuryNatureVision Loss 0.220
## BodyPartRegionLower Extremities 0.413
## BodyPartRegionMultiple Body Parts 0.141
## BodyPartRegionNeck -0.052
## BodyPartRegionNon-Standard Code 0.008
## BodyPartRegionTrunk 0.296
## BodyPartRegionUpper Extremities 0.316
## BodyPartAnkle -0.137
## BodyPartArtificial Appliance 0.019
## BodyPartBody Systems and Multiple Body Systems -1.663
## BodyPartButtocks 0.253
## BodyPartChest -0.065
## BodyPartDisc-Trunk 0.049
## BodyPartEar(S) 0.263
## BodyPartElbow 0.739
## BodyPartEyes -0.046
## BodyPartFacial Bones 0.257
## BodyPartFinger(S) -0.383
## BodyPartFoot -0.448
## BodyPartGreat Toe -0.429
## BodyPartHand -0.640
## BodyPartHeart 0.079
## BodyPartHip 0.762
## BodyPartInsufficient Info to Properly Identify?Unclassified 0.669
## BodyPartInternal Organs 0.517
## BodyPartKnee 0.037
## BodyPartLarynx -0.231
## BodyPartLower Arm -0.144
## BodyPartLower Back Area 0.689
## BodyPartLower Leg -0.202
## BodyPartLumbar and/or Sacral Vertebrae (Vertebra NOC Trunk) 0.876
## BodyPartLungs -0.510
## BodyPartMouth 0.224
## BodyPartMultiple Body Parts (Including Body Systems and Body Parts) 0.548
## BodyPartMultiple Head Injury 0.306
## BodyPartMultiple Lower Extremities 2.622
## BodyPartMultiple Neck Injury 0.284
## BodyPartMultiple Trunk 0.082
## BodyPartMultiple Upper Extremities 0.590
## BodyPartNo Physical Injury NA
## BodyPartNon-Standard Code NA
## BodyPartNose 0.725
## BodyPartPelvis -0.194
## BodyPartSacrum And Coccyx -0.248
## BodyPartShoulder(S) 1.042
## BodyPartSkull -0.098
## BodyPartSoft Tissue-Neck -0.081
## BodyPartSpinal Cord-Trunk 0.940
## BodyPartTeeth NA
## BodyPartThumb -0.138
## BodyPartToes -0.358
## BodyPartTrachea NA
## BodyPartUpper Arm 3.356
## BodyPartUpper Back Area 0.277
## BodyPartUpper Leg NA
## BodyPartWrist NA
## Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 0.425304
## ClaimStatusO < 2e-16
## ClaimStatusR < 2e-16
## IsDenied 0.003147
## Procesing_Time < 2e-16
## ClaimantAge_at_DOI 0.378683
## GenderMale 0.154763
## GenderNot Available 0.888012
## BillReviewALE 0.882960
## Hospital 0.910198
## PhysicianOutpatient 0.843532
## ClaimantTypeMedical Only < 2e-16
## ClaimantTypeReport Only 6.09e-11
## InjuryNatureAmputation 0.434619
## InjuryNatureAngina Pectoris 0.668238
## InjuryNatureAsbestosis 0.534456
## InjuryNatureBurn 0.000481
## InjuryNatureCancer 0.827162
## InjuryNatureCarpal Tunnel Syndrome 0.809978
## InjuryNatureConcussion 0.277441
## InjuryNatureContagious Disease 0.190847
## InjuryNatureContusion 0.183393
## InjuryNatureCrushing 0.781667
## InjuryNatureDermatitis 0.909561
## InjuryNatureDislocation 0.099575
## InjuryNatureDust Disease, NOC 0.840827
## InjuryNatureElectric Shock 0.974800
## InjuryNatureForeign Body 0.101923
## InjuryNatureFracture 0.340802
## InjuryNatureHearing Loss Or Impairment 0.958852
## InjuryNatureHeat Prostration 0.692267
## InjuryNatureHernia 0.969708
## InjuryNatureInfection 0.483587
## InjuryNatureInflammation 0.191759
## InjuryNatureLaceration 0.236844
## InjuryNatureLoss of Hearing 0.582003
## InjuryNatureMental Stress 0.781165
## InjuryNatureMultiple Injuries Including Both Physical and Psychological 0.999486
## InjuryNatureMultiple Physical Injuries Only 0.025472
## InjuryNatureMyocardial Infarction 0.794128
## InjuryNatureNo Physical Injury 0.544036
## InjuryNatureNon-Standard Code 0.963720
## InjuryNaturePoisoning?Chemical (Other Than Metals) 0.444204
## InjuryNaturePuncture 0.448369
## InjuryNatureRadiation 0.998839
## InjuryNatureRespiratory Disorders 0.340935
## InjuryNatureRupture 0.507056
## InjuryNatureSeverance 0.690054
## InjuryNatureSprain 0.601648
## InjuryNatureStrain 0.599149
## InjuryNatureSyncope 0.541456
## InjuryNatureVision Loss 0.826015
## BodyPartRegionLower Extremities 0.679552
## BodyPartRegionMultiple Body Parts 0.887814
## BodyPartRegionNeck 0.958922
## BodyPartRegionNon-Standard Code 0.993512
## BodyPartRegionTrunk 0.767424
## BodyPartRegionUpper Extremities 0.752213
## BodyPartAnkle 0.891382
## BodyPartArtificial Appliance 0.984812
## BodyPartBody Systems and Multiple Body Systems 0.096403
## BodyPartButtocks 0.800265
## BodyPartChest 0.947938
## BodyPartDisc-Trunk 0.960925
## BodyPartEar(S) 0.792491
## BodyPartElbow 0.459754
## BodyPartEyes 0.963175
## BodyPartFacial Bones 0.797548
## BodyPartFinger(S) 0.701766
## BodyPartFoot 0.654481
## BodyPartGreat Toe 0.667887
## BodyPartHand 0.522353
## BodyPartHeart 0.936732
## BodyPartHip 0.446031
## BodyPartInsufficient Info to Properly Identify?Unclassified 0.503336
## BodyPartInternal Organs 0.604998
## BodyPartKnee 0.970618
## BodyPartLarynx 0.817443
## BodyPartLower Arm 0.885647
## BodyPartLower Back Area 0.491090
## BodyPartLower Leg 0.840027
## BodyPartLumbar and/or Sacral Vertebrae (Vertebra NOC Trunk) 0.381235
## BodyPartLungs 0.609929
## BodyPartMouth 0.822785
## BodyPartMultiple Body Parts (Including Body Systems and Body Parts) 0.583537
## BodyPartMultiple Head Injury 0.759921
## BodyPartMultiple Lower Extremities 0.008758
## BodyPartMultiple Neck Injury 0.776801
## BodyPartMultiple Trunk 0.934552
## BodyPartMultiple Upper Extremities 0.555469
## BodyPartNo Physical Injury NA
## BodyPartNon-Standard Code NA
## BodyPartNose 0.468464
## BodyPartPelvis 0.845817
## BodyPartSacrum And Coccyx 0.803834
## BodyPartShoulder(S) 0.297669
## BodyPartSkull 0.922307
## BodyPartSoft Tissue-Neck 0.935592
## BodyPartSpinal Cord-Trunk 0.347237
## BodyPartTeeth NA
## BodyPartThumb 0.890140
## BodyPartToes 0.720498
## BodyPartTrachea NA
## BodyPartUpper Arm 0.000795
## BodyPartUpper Back Area 0.782039
## BodyPartUpper Leg NA
## BodyPartWrist NA
##
## (Intercept)
## ClaimStatusO ***
## ClaimStatusR ***
## IsDenied **
## Procesing_Time ***
## ClaimantAge_at_DOI
## GenderMale
## GenderNot Available
## BillReviewALE
## Hospital
## PhysicianOutpatient
## ClaimantTypeMedical Only ***
## ClaimantTypeReport Only ***
## InjuryNatureAmputation
## InjuryNatureAngina Pectoris
## InjuryNatureAsbestosis
## InjuryNatureBurn ***
## InjuryNatureCancer
## InjuryNatureCarpal Tunnel Syndrome
## InjuryNatureConcussion
## InjuryNatureContagious Disease
## InjuryNatureContusion
## InjuryNatureCrushing
## InjuryNatureDermatitis
## InjuryNatureDislocation .
## InjuryNatureDust Disease, NOC
## InjuryNatureElectric Shock
## InjuryNatureForeign Body
## InjuryNatureFracture
## InjuryNatureHearing Loss Or Impairment
## InjuryNatureHeat Prostration
## InjuryNatureHernia
## InjuryNatureInfection
## InjuryNatureInflammation
## InjuryNatureLaceration
## InjuryNatureLoss of Hearing
## InjuryNatureMental Stress
## InjuryNatureMultiple Injuries Including Both Physical and Psychological
## InjuryNatureMultiple Physical Injuries Only *
## InjuryNatureMyocardial Infarction
## InjuryNatureNo Physical Injury
## InjuryNatureNon-Standard Code
## InjuryNaturePoisoning?Chemical (Other Than Metals)
## InjuryNaturePuncture
## InjuryNatureRadiation
## InjuryNatureRespiratory Disorders
## InjuryNatureRupture
## InjuryNatureSeverance
## InjuryNatureSprain
## InjuryNatureStrain
## InjuryNatureSyncope
## InjuryNatureVision Loss
## BodyPartRegionLower Extremities
## BodyPartRegionMultiple Body Parts
## BodyPartRegionNeck
## BodyPartRegionNon-Standard Code
## BodyPartRegionTrunk
## BodyPartRegionUpper Extremities
## BodyPartAnkle
## BodyPartArtificial Appliance
## BodyPartBody Systems and Multiple Body Systems .
## BodyPartButtocks
## BodyPartChest
## BodyPartDisc-Trunk
## BodyPartEar(S)
## BodyPartElbow
## BodyPartEyes
## BodyPartFacial Bones
## BodyPartFinger(S)
## BodyPartFoot
## BodyPartGreat Toe
## BodyPartHand
## BodyPartHeart
## BodyPartHip
## BodyPartInsufficient Info to Properly Identify?Unclassified
## BodyPartInternal Organs
## BodyPartKnee
## BodyPartLarynx
## BodyPartLower Arm
## BodyPartLower Back Area
## BodyPartLower Leg
## BodyPartLumbar and/or Sacral Vertebrae (Vertebra NOC Trunk)
## BodyPartLungs
## BodyPartMouth
## BodyPartMultiple Body Parts (Including Body Systems and Body Parts)
## BodyPartMultiple Head Injury
## BodyPartMultiple Lower Extremities **
## BodyPartMultiple Neck Injury
## BodyPartMultiple Trunk
## BodyPartMultiple Upper Extremities
## BodyPartNo Physical Injury
## BodyPartNon-Standard Code
## BodyPartNose
## BodyPartPelvis
## BodyPartSacrum And Coccyx
## BodyPartShoulder(S)
## BodyPartSkull
## BodyPartSoft Tissue-Neck
## BodyPartSpinal Cord-Trunk
## BodyPartTeeth
## BodyPartThumb
## BodyPartToes
## BodyPartTrachea
## BodyPartUpper Arm ***
## BodyPartUpper Back Area
## BodyPartUpper Leg
## BodyPartWrist
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 47560 on 6577 degrees of freedom
## (24941 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.5888, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5825
## F-statistic: 94.17 on 100 and 6577 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16Evaluar y Ajustar Regresión (de ser necesario)
regresion <- lm(TotalIncurredCost ~ ClaimStatus + IsDenied + Procesing_Time + ClaimantAge_at_DOI + Gender + ClaimantType, data= base_de_datos)
summary(regresion)##
## Call:
## lm(formula = TotalIncurredCost ~ ClaimStatus + IsDenied + Procesing_Time +
## ClaimantAge_at_DOI + Gender + ClaimantType, data = base_de_datos)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -621727 -1712 185 1312 4372971
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 19003.740 1500.567 12.664 < 2e-16 ***
## ClaimStatusO 413752.222 3486.939 118.658 < 2e-16 ***
## ClaimStatusR 292797.925 3924.071 74.616 < 2e-16 ***
## IsDenied -11083.896 1599.809 -6.928 4.34e-12 ***
## Procesing_Time 35.513 1.227 28.937 < 2e-16 ***
## ClaimantAge_at_DOI 76.337 29.012 2.631 0.00851 **
## GenderMale 300.706 658.804 0.456 0.64807
## GenderNot Available 30495.625 6106.824 4.994 5.95e-07 ***
## ClaimantTypeMedical Only -22879.560 815.968 -28.040 < 2e-16 ***
## ClaimantTypeReport Only -23246.419 1816.307 -12.799 < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 58330 on 31609 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.5211, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5209
## F-statistic: 3821 on 9 and 31609 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16Construir un Modelo de Predicción
datos_nuevos <- data.frame(ClaimStatus= "O", IsDenied = 0, Procesing_Time = 10, ClaimantAge_at_DOI = 50, Gender = "Male", ClaimantType = "Indemnity")
predict(regresion,datos_nuevos)## 1
## 437228.7Conclusión
El modelo de regresión lineal logró explicar el 52% del comportamiento de Costo Total de Incurrencia. Usando solo 6 variables de las 29 explicatorias.
Este modelo se puede mejorar de distintas maneras como:
- Agregar otras variables que impacten al negocio.
- Cruzar información de otras fuentes de información.
- Aplicar otras técnicas de validación del modelo.
- Reducir la cantidad de categorías en variables categóricas (más
generales).
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