Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Benin, Ethiopia, Malaysia, Nigeria. We are forecasting major events for Malaysia.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
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Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
Benin
For Benin, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Legal Actions in April and May: In Benin, former MP Désiré Vodonou and his co-accused were sentenced to 14 years in prison by the Court for the Suppression of Economic Offences and Terrorism (Criet) on undisclosed charges. The same court also handled several significant cases, including the trial of 42 individuals for electoral violence during the 2021 presidential election, a case involving the theft of 1.7 billion CFA francs from Benin Terminal, and another concerning 70,000 cartridges discovered in a truck in Gouka in 2021. Additionally, three Republican police officers were sentenced to six months in prison for raping a citizen, as ruled by the Natitingou First Instance Court. The Court for the Suppression of Economic Offences and Terrorism (CRIET) also sentenced four officials of the State Hydrocarbons Company (SHB) and a freight forwarder to two years of imprisonment and imposed a fine of more than 600 million CFA francs for economic misconduct. A former Deputy Commissioner of Justice was sentenced by the same court to seven years in prison and fined five million CFA francs for embezzlement. Twenty participants of a workers’ march were given 12-month suspended prison sentences for “detention and use of Indian hemp or psychotropic substances.” Two police officers are under investigation following a fatal accident, and the former head of the Beninese naval forces faces prosecution amid legal difficulties.
Security Mobilization in April: In Benin, a notable deployment of military forces, which included troops from foreign countries, took place in the municipality of Tchaourou and its surrounding areas, which brought about concerns among the local population and members of the National Assembly. Concurrently, the police have announced an escalation in the enforcement of road code laws, entering what they have termed as phase 2 of the operation. Additionally, at Cotonou airport, a member of the police chief brigade, known as Ourou Abdel Aziz, was arrested on charges of abuse of office.
Protests in April and May: In Cotonou, a peaceful march organized by trade union centers on April 27, 2024, was dispersed by the police using tear gas, leading to several arrests, with those detained later being released. Following this disrupted protest, trade union confederations announced plans for further actions against ongoing economic challenges on April 29, 2024. The “Thursdays in Black” initiative saw young people expressing frustration with the government, and an opposition protest by the Democratic Party, scheduled for May 1, 2024, was canceled. Authorities also blocked access to assembly points to prevent a protest against the cost of living on April 27, 2024. On May 11, 2024, in Cotonou, thousands of workers from several trade unions, including the CSTB, CSA-Benin, CGTB, COSI-Benin, and UNSTB, protested against rising prices and the violation of individual and trade union freedoms. A protest planned by the CSTB on May 1, 2024, was met with police repression, resulting in 72 arrests. Tanguiéta residents demonstrated peacefully on May 4, 2024, demanding justice for unsolved murders, while mini-bus drivers expressed discontent from May 6 to May 8, 2024, against new governmental measures affecting their operations. Workers and trade unions organized another peaceful march on May 22, 2024, to continue voicing their opposition to the increasing cost of living.
Purge/Replace in April: In recent events within Benin, Jean Léon Olatoundji, the former Chief of the General Staff of the Beninese Navy, was dismissed from office due to serious accusations involving several members of the Navy. Additionally, Mr. Dagnon, a significant figure in the administration and a close associate of the President, resigned unexpectedly after a meeting with the President. The Directorate General of the Republican Police expelled a district commissioner from Cotonou because of excessive actions by one of his agents. Furthermore, Mr. Denise Ehouzou Gangnito, a notary in Cotonou, was removed from his position by the government. Lastly, a judicial officer involved in a controversial demolition project in Togbin was temporarily suspended by the government.
Lethal Violence in June: Seven soldiers were killed by unidentified armed men in Pendjari National Park on June 4, 2024, an attack that has raised alarm over jihadist violence in northern Benin. Additionally, Beninese Defence and Security Forces have been active in counter-terrorism efforts, neutralizing over 50 terrorists, arresting 20 suspects, and seizing war equipment in May. Separately, the remains of a peulh farmer and the body of a young woman were discovered in the municipality of Dassa-Zoumè and in a lagoon in Cotonou, respectively, on May 31 and June 11, 2024, though the circumstances around these deaths remain unspecified.
Non-lethal Violence in April: Since mid-2022, Benin has seen an increase in kidnappings, particularly in the north, due to terrorist groups entering the region, with over 222 incidents reported in 2023. An attack on a customs station in Malanville occurred, during which defense and security forces neutralized one assailant as part of Operation Mirador. A report highlighted police misconduct, with Social Watch Benin calling for greater professionalism among officers and adherence to the law by citizens. Additionally, a law enforcement effort to address reckless driving led to a motorcyclist breaking the foot of the central commissioner in Azovè, underscoring the challenges and dangers faced by officers during traffic regulation operations.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Ethiopia
For Ethiopia, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Legal Changes in April and June: The Council of Ministers in Ethiopia unanimously approved a Transitional Justice Policy to investigate and litigate human rights violations across multiple eras in the country’s history. Following this, the Ethiopian Investment Board, under the leadership of the Prime Minister, introduced a directive allowing foreign investors into previously protected sectors such as export, import, wholesale, and retail trade. Additionally, the Ethiopian Parliament passed a proclamation for the establishment and administration of Special Economic Zones with a substantial minimum capital requirement, intended to enhance manufacturing investments and improve logistics. In an effort to promote transparency and fairness, the Ministry of Education in Ethiopia announced plans to overhaul the criteria and processes for awarding honorary degrees. The Council of Ministers in Ethiopia has endorsed a draft banking business law that opens the country’s banking sector to international competition by allowing foreign banks to obtain operating licenses for the first time in decades. Concurrently, the European Union has implemented temporary restrictions on Schengen short-term visas for Ethiopian nationals due to Ethiopia’s hesitation in repatriating citizens who reside illegally in EU states. Additionally, new tax reforms aimed at generating significant revenue to support the nation’s budget and the discussion of legislation to enable the National Bank of Ethiopia to issue digital currency have been reported, signaling efforts to modernize the country’s financial and regulatory framework. Furthermore, Ethiopia has introduced regulations that permit private investment and community involvement in forest development, protection, and utilization, including participating in carbon trading.
Security Mobilization in June: Ethiopian troops have reportedly entered Somalia, impacting the planned withdrawal of 4,000 African Union Transition Mission in Somalia troops and leading to the postponement of Somalia’s September transition. Ethiopian authorities have also increased actions against civic spaces and domestic human rights organizations, employing measures such as physical and digital surveillance and verbal harassment. Residents in the Amhara and Tigray regions of Ethiopia have reported the movement of Tigray forces toward border areas, raising concerns about potential conflict. Additionally, the Somali government has requested the complete withdrawal of Ethiopian peacekeeping troops, reflecting a complex situation involving Ethiopian military activities and regional security issues.
Forecasting
Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Ethiopia.
Malaysia
For Malaysia, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in May: In Malaysia, NGOs and human rights activists have urged the government to address the nation’s notable decline in the 2024 Freedom Index reported by Reporters Without Borders (RSF), which draws attention to diminishing press freedom and suggests steps for improvement. Concurrently, the environmental organization RimbaWatch disclosed extensive forest concessions that pose a risk to up to 3. 2 million hectares of Malaysia’s forests, prompting calls for the government to fulfill its pledge to preserve 50% forest coverage, a commitment also acknowledged by the National Resources and Environmental Sustainability Ministry. In the political arena, the Perikatan Nasional (PN) party has declared its intent to file an election petition against Pakatan Harapan (PH) if it wins the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election, alleging significant election malpractices including the abuse of power and the misuse of government resources. Additionally, Amnesty International Malaysia has demanded greater transparency from the government concerning death penalty data, criticizing the current opacity and underscoring the necessity for public access to such information.
Censorship in April and June: Between January and March 2023, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), in partnership with social media platforms, removed 1,454 pieces of content related to race, religion, and royalty, citing concerns over hate speech and sensitive topics, with the highest number of incidents (727) related to religion. The Deputy Public Prosecutor’s Office barred media coverage of Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s judicial review application concerning a royal order for house arrest, and a Court of Appeal upheld a gag order against director and scriptwriter Mohd Khairianwar Jailani, preventing public statements about his ongoing criminal case. Additionally, the Health Ministry ordered the removal of “Kingu Ginseng Candy” advertisements and sales from Lazada for non-compliance with Food Regulations, and the MCMC confiscated a MyNewsHub social media account operator’s SIM card and mobile phone for uploading a video deemed to cause public confusion. The MCMC has also requested social media platforms like TikTok and Telegram to remove content related to a murder investigation, citing potential disruption of legal proceedings. The MCMC blocked hundreds of websites and removed thousands of items from social media for violating public decency standards, focusing on pornographic and prostitution-related content. Malaysia has been identified for making a high number of content deletion requests to TikTok, drawing criticism for potentially infringing on freedom of expression. Additionally, the government’s efforts to block dissenting news websites have contributed to a decline in Malaysia’s press freedom ranking, with officials justifying these actions as measures against the spread of fake news. The unexplained takedown of China Press’s Facebook page is another example of challenges related to content control and visibility on social media platforms within the country.
Security Mobilization in April and May: The Royal Malaysian Police (PDRM) increased security measures at Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) and along the Malaysia-Thailand border following a shooting incident and a bomb explosion with gunfire in Narathiwat province. Officers and personnel from various departments, including the General Operations Force and the Internal Security and Public Order Department, were deployed to enhance national security and public safety. The Malaysian Army also began constructing eight new posts in Sabah and Sarawak to strengthen border control and combat cross-border crime. Additionally, “Ops Selamat 22” was activated nationwide to mitigate accidents, burglaries, and ensure smooth traffic flow during Aidilfitri. Following a series of security concerns, Malaysia has significantly intensified security measures across the nation. Enhanced protocols were implemented in various sectors, including government buildings, critical facilities, public spaces, and police stations, in response to an attack at the Ulu Tiram police station in Johor and other emerging threats. This escalation of security includes increased border protection measures along the Malaysia-Thailand boundary with the deployment of armored vehicles and additional personnel, following violent incidents in Narathiwat Province. The security presence was also amplified at large public events, such as Super League football matches and a by-election in Kuala Kubu Baharu, to ensure public safety and maintain order.
Lethal Violence in May: In Johor Bahru, an attack on the Ulu Tiram police station by a suspect with links to Jemaah Islamiyah resulted in the deaths of two police officers and the injury of another before the suspect was neutralized. In Kuala Lumpur, a 47-year-old man was sentenced to death for a violent act in a coal mine. Additionally, a 16-year-old boy died in Bukit Broga, Semenyih, after a recreational outing, and a mute man with disabilities was murdered during a robbery at his family’s residence in Bukit Mertajam.
Non-lethal Violence in April and May: In Malaysia, a non-lethal violence incident occurred at Kuala Lumpur International Airport where a man targeted his estranged wife, severely injuring her bodyguard, who later regained consciousness after critical surgery. In another incident, two Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency personnel were injured in a shooting in the Kunak waters, with one losing sight in an eye and another suffering hand injuries. A series of Molotov cocktail attacks targeted KK Mart stores, with a recent attack causing minor fire damage in Kuantan. In an unrelated incident, a woman splashed hot water on a man with Down syndrome in George Town, prompting a police investigation. Police also responded to a threat by firing shots at a vehicle smuggling petrol in Kampung Pulau Ular, Pengkalan Kubor, after the driver endangered police lives. In another incident, a police station in Ulu Tiram was attacked, resulting in one officer being hospitalized with gunshot wounds for nine days before being discharged. The assault was later determined to be a lone wolf attack, despite initial suspicions of links to the Jemaah Islamiyah terrorist group. Separately, Malaysian football players were targeted in various attacks, including an acid attack on a Selangor FC player, car vandalism against a JDT player, and a physical assault on a TFC player. Fast food restaurants in Selangor were vandalized with graffiti related to the Palestinian-Israel conflict. Additionally, a woman in Kulai survived an attempted abduction after being attacked by four men outside her home.
Forecasting
Our standard forecasting models are predicting jumps in reporting on Civic Activism in Q1 2025, and Q4 2024.
Nigeria
For Nigeria, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Censorship in April: The Kano State Film Censorship Board announced a ban on movies that depict crossdressing and thuggery. Parallel to this, the Igbo Journalists Association decided to blacklist any journalist who covers the activities of a factional Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide group, which is not officially recognized. Furthermore, the Federal Government barred journalists from covering a military inquiry into the deaths of 17 soldiers and ordered the suspension of mining activities around the Obafemi Awolowo University and its teaching hospitals to investigate illegal operations. Additionally, Rivers Governor Siminalayi Fubara accused a senator of political obstruction.
Defamation Cases in April and June: The suspended Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation, Betta Edu, has initiated legal action against the BBC, seeking $50 million for alleged defamation. Defamation lawsuits involving former government officials and prominent activists have also been brought before federal courts, reflecting disputes over public statements. The Federal High Court in Abuja handled a case that cleared Alex Okoh, a former Director General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises, from a contempt order. A superstar singer’s legal team issued a cease and desist letter to another artist over comments made on Twitter. A renowned author and journalist filed a lawsuit against an individual and an institution for not approving a manuscript within the agreed timeframe, citing breach of contract. An activist sued for defamation over an audio conversation, while a campaign organization accused a political candidate of making defamatory statements about a court judgment’s influence. Additionally, a former chair of a lawyers’ forum demanded an apology over allegations of embezzlement made on a WhatsApp platform.
Disaster in April: In a series of recent events in Nigeria, the Federal Ministry for Water Resources and Sanitation warned of a high flood risk in 148 local government areas across 31 states for the year 2024. Concurrently, an unidentified illness in Sokoto State resulted in eight deaths and affected 208 people, with the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) actively investigating. Further incidents included a fatal boat accident in Anambra State causing several deaths and missing persons, a building collapse in Kano that killed three people and injured two, and the NCDC reporting one death along with 15 new cases of Lassa fever countrywide within a week.
Legal Actions in April and May: Former Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello was charged with corruption and misappropriation of public funds by the Kano State government and was placed on a watchlist by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Idris Okuneye, known as Bobrisky, received a six-month prison sentence for naira abuse after pleading guilty to money laundering charges in Lagos. The National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, is facing charges related to bribery and misappropriation, with proceedings delayed due to irregularities in charge service. Olanrewaju James, also known as Baba Ijesha, has contested his sexual assault conviction and is awaiting a Court of Appeal decision. Former Attorney-General Mohammed Adoke was acquitted of money laundering charges linked to the Malabu Oil Block scandal due to insufficient evidence presented by the EFCC. In Nigeria, Binance is working to address its reputation after facing legal issues, including money laundering allegations, while the escape of its chief, Nadeem Anjarwalla, has led to an inquiry by the House of Representatives into security lapses. Former Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele is involved in legal challenges over financial misconduct, raising concerns about the integrity of Nigeria’s financial regulatory system. In Rivers State, legal battles continue with a High Court ruling affecting pro-Wike lawmakers and challenges to Governor Fubara. Former Aviation Minister Hadi Sirika, alongside his brother Ahmad, is accused of fraud involving billions linked to aviation contracts. Additionally, the trial of Indigenous People of Biafra leader Nnamdi Kanu, concerning his refusal of bail applications, reflects ongoing tensions around separatist movements and government accountability debates.
Legal Changes in May and June: President Bola Tinubu signed into law a bill that restores Nigeria’s old national anthem, “Nigeria, We Hail Thee,” replacing the anthem “Arise, O Compatriots.” The Kano State House of Assembly repealed a law, leading to the abolishment of five Emirates established in 2019, affecting the structure of traditional governance in Northern Nigeria. The President also suspended a controversial 0.5% cybersecurity fee on electronic banking transactions following extensive deliberations. In legislative actions, President Tinubu sent the National Anti-Doping Bill, 2024, along with the FCTA Statutory Appropriation Act, 2024, Supplementary Bill, to the Senate for assessment and approval. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) mandated that foreign missions in Nigeria conduct transactions in the local currency, Naira, as part of efforts to address economic discrepancies. The Nigerian Senate passed a bill to increase the salaries, allowances, and fringe benefits of judicial officers by 300 percent to improve the judiciary’s financial status and efficiency. The proposed National Minimum Wage Act 2025 seeks to standardize wages across the nation, ensuring all employers adhere to a binding minimum wage, removing the power of state legislatures to set public service wages. The Federal Government imposed a ban on single-use plastics in all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies to reduce plastic waste and promote environmental sustainability. The Senate also passed an Anti-Doping Bill to prohibit the use of performance-enhancing drugs among athletes, aligning Nigeria with global standards. Nigeria will implement the Advance Passenger Information System regulations to enhance border security and comply with International Civil Aviation Organization standards, facilitating pre-screening of passengers before entry into the country.
Security Mobilization in May: IIn Nigeria, military and police operations have been conducted to restore peace and combat various forms of unrest and criminal activity across multiple states. In Zamfara State, military troops and the Joint Task Force were deployed to address rampant banditry. In Kano State, soldiers were deployed by the federal government following the controversial deposition of an emir, which led to public unrest and debate. In Rivers State, political tensions resulted in the deployment of armed policemen and armored vehicles to protect lawmakers. In the Maiduguri region, military operations focused on eliminating terrorist activities in Sambisa Forest and the surrounding areas. Additionally, NITDA and DHQ employed digital assets in efforts to combat terrorism, kidnapping, and banditry.
Protests in May and June: The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) picketed electricity distribution offices in cities including Abuja, Ibadan, and Jos, protesting against increased electricity tariffs and consistent power outages. Retired police officers demonstrated in Abuja over unpaid pensions, raising concerns about the National Pension Commission’s (PenCom) failure to disburse their entitlements. The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) announced plans for a nationwide strike due to the government’s failure to address issues such as unpaid salaries and allowances. Workers at the Ondo state-owned University of Medical Sciences Teaching Hospital protested for unpaid salary arrears dating from 2018 to 2020. Additionally, a group of journalists, activists, and civil society leaders protested at the Police Headquarters in Abuja, demanding the release of detained journalist Daniel Ojukwu. In Nigeria, the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) initiated a nationwide strike to demand a higher national minimum wage, resulting in the closure of public services across various states. Protests were also reported in Kaduna, where demonstrators demanded the arrest of ex-Governor Nasir El-Rufai over alleged financial mismanagement, and in Ondo, where students protested for the release of an abducted peer. In Ibadan, residents protested against prolonged inadequate power supply, and youths in Degema Local Government Area of Rivers State demonstrated against the tenure extension of local government chairmen.
Purge/Replace in April and May: The Edo State House of Assembly impeached Deputy Governor Philip Shaibu, who was subsequently replaced by Omobayo Godwins, appointed by Governor Godwin Obaseki. Meanwhile, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje was suspended from his position as the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) due to corruption allegations, leading to internal party disputes. In Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara reshuffled his cabinet, affecting key positions such as the Attorney General and Commissioner for Finance. At the federal level, the Nigerian government revoked 924 dormant mining licenses to strengthen the regulatory framework of the mining sector. The Nigerian Army dismissed two soldiers, Corporal Innocent Joseph and Lance Corporal Jacob Gani, for theft, reinforcing its anti-corruption policies. In Anambra State, Governor Chukwuma Soludo dismissed all 21 local government transition chairmen, directing them to hand over their duties to the Heads of Local Government Administrations. Similarly, the Kwara State Government, under Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, terminated the appointments of the Transition Implementation Committee chairmen for the 16 local government areas. The Nigerian Army saw a major transition with the retirement of 29 generals, including 19 Major Generals and 10 Brigadiers-General, indicating a shift within the military leadership. Additionally, the Labour Party suspended its National Chairman, Julius Abure.
Raids in April: In recent events in Nigeria, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) conducted a siege on the residence of the former governor of Kogi State in connection with an alleged N84 billion fraud. Concurrently, police operations in Lagos led to the arrest of 303 suspects at criminal hotspots ahead of Eid el-Fitr celebrations, aiming to curb criminal activities. In Rivers State, a police operation successfully dismantled the operations of a notorious criminal, contributing to efforts to enhance safety in the Ahoada West Local Government Area. Additionally, the Joint Task Force Operation UDO KA raided camps associated with the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and its armed wing in Imo State, targeting efforts to dispel violence and restore stability. Furthermore, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) took action against a Chinese supermarket in Abuja for implementing discriminatory policies against Nigerians, marking a step towards eradicating unfair trade practices.
Non-lethal Violence in April: In Oyo State, gunmen invaded the government secretariat, leading to a confrontation with security forces and the arrest of 21 suspects, an incident described as terrorism. Zamfara State saw the abduction of more than 40 individuals from two communities by suspected terrorists, with villagers fleeing for safety. Ekiti State faced unrest as hoodlums attacked the Ilejemeje Local Government Secretariat due to a land dispute, resulting in vandalism and injuries. Additionally, in Benue State, the wife and house help of a former Chief of Staff were abducted, with a ransom demand. The Federal University Oye-Ekiti addressed allegations of robbery and sexual assault on its campus.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.