---
title: "ExportGenius Trade Analysis: Ukraine"
author: Gagan Atreya
date: today
format:
html:
toc: true
toc-location: left
toc-depth: 4
theme: lumen
fontsize: large
code-fold: true
code-tools: true
code-summary: "Display code"
code-overflow: wrap
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---
## **Tobacco imports**
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
rm(list = ls())
pacman::p_load(readxl, vtable, tidyverse,
lubridate, data.table, zoo,
readODS, patchwork, scales)
rm(list = ls())
df <- fread("/home/gagan/Desktop/soc_ace_2024/Ukraine-Imports-Tobacco.csv")
df$date <- dmy(df$Date)
df$date <- df$date
df$description <- df$`Product Description`
df$origin_country <- df$`Origin Country`
df$origin_country <- ifelse(df$origin_country == "Europiean Union", "European Union",
ifelse(df$origin_country == "EUROPIEAN UNION", "European Union", df$origin_country))
df$supplier <- df$Supplier
df$importer <- df$Importer
df$price_invoice <- df$`Total Value USD`/df$Quantity
df$total_value <- df$`Total Value USD`
df <- df[, c("date", "description", "origin_country",
"supplier", "importer", "price_invoice", "total_value")]
df02 <- fread("~/Desktop/soc_ace_2024/scripts/exportgenius/gold_analyses_latest/goldprice.csv")
df02$date <- ymd(df02$date)
df <- merge(df, df02, by = "date")
df$price_benchmark <- df$price_gram
#df[sapply(df, is.infinite)] <- NA
df <- df[!(df$price_invoice > 1000),]
plot01 <- ggplot(df,
aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line() +
geom_point() +
# ylim(15, 120) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot01
plot02 <- df %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value,
color = origin_country))+
geom_line()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
geom_point()+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports",
x = "Date",
y = "Total value")+
theme_bw()
plot02
plot03 <- df %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports by Origin",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot03
max_price_index <- which.max(df$price_invoice)
# Remove the row with the highest value in the 'price' column
df <- df[-max_price_index, ]
df$filter01 <- ifelse(df$price_invoice > 150, 1, 0)
# table(df$filter01)
df <- df[df$price_invoice <=120, ]
df$price_difference <- df$price_invoice - df$price_benchmark
#df <- df[df$Origin_Country == "China", ]
df03 <- df[, c("date", "price_invoice", "price_benchmark")]
df_long <- reshape2::melt(df03,
id.vars = "date",
variable.name = "price_type",
value.name = "price")
# ggplot(df_long,
# aes(x = date,
# y = price,
# linetype = price_type)) +
# geom_line(size = 0.75,
# color = "black")+
# labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports",
# x = "Date",
# y = "Price") +
# theme_bw()
df$price_difference <- df$price_invoice - df$price_benchmark
df$price_difference2 <- scale(df$price_difference)
df$price_benchmark2 <- scale(df$price_benchmark)
plot04 <- ggplot(df, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot04
plot06 <- ggplot(df, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports by Importer: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE) +
facet_wrap(~importer,
ncol = 4)
plot06
```
## Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Notable Origin Countries
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country %in% c("Azerbaijan", "European Union", "Kazakhstan",
"Poland", "Switzerland", "Turkey", "Unknown") ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Armenia - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Armenia", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Armenia",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Armenia: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Azerbaijan - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Azerbaijan", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Azerbaijan",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Azerbaijan: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Brazil - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Brazil", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Brazil",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()+
scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b %Y", date_breaks = "2 months")
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Brazil: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE) +
scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b %Y", date_breaks = "2 months")
plot12
```
## Croatia - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Croatia", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Croatia",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Croatia: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Czechia - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Czechia", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Czechia",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Czechia: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Denmark - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Denmark", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Denmark",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Denmark: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## European Union - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "European Union", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: European Union",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from European Union: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Germany - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Germany", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Germany",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Germany: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Kazakhstan - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Kazakhstan", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Kazakhstan",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()+
scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b %Y", date_breaks = "2 months")
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Kazakhstan: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE) +
scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b %Y", date_breaks = "2 months")
plot12
```
## Mexico - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Mexico", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Mexico",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()+
scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b %Y", date_breaks = "2 months")
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Mexico: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE) +
scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b %Y", date_breaks = "2 months")
plot12
```
## Poland - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Poland", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Poland",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Poland: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Romania - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Romania", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Romania",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Romania: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Switzerland - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Switzerland", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Switzerland",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Switzerland: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Turkey - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Turkey", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Turkey",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Turkey: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
## Unknown - Ukraine
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
df11 <- df[df$origin_country == "Unknown", ]
plot11 <- df11 %>%
ggplot( aes(x = date,
y = total_value)) +
geom_line()+
geom_point()+
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
facet_wrap(~origin_country, ncol = 2)+
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports: Unknown",
x = "Date",
y = "Total Value") +
theme_bw()
plot11
```
```{r, error = F, message = F, warning = F}
plot12 <- ggplot(df11, aes(x = date,
y = price_difference2)) +
geom_segment(aes(x = date,
xend = date,
y = 0,
yend = price_difference2,
color = price_difference2 > 0)) +
geom_point(color = "black", size = 2) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2022-02-24"),
linetype = "dashed",
color = "black",
size = 0.45) +
theme_bw() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "blue")) +
labs(title = "Ukraine Tobacco Imports from Unknown: Price Differentials Over Time",
x = "Date",
y = "Price differential (standardized)") +
guides(color = FALSE)
plot12
```
