Opioids Research 2024 Update

Aayush Sethi

2024-09-22

1. Data Overview

I converted all the count columns to per_100k

These columns were converted –

  • Overdose_Total: Overdose_Total_per_100k
  • Employer: Employer_per_100k
  • Non_Group: Non_Group_per_100k
  • Medicaid: Medicaid_per_100k
  • Medicare: Medicare_per_100k
  • Military: Military_per_100k
  • Uninsured: Uninsured_per_100k
  • Individual_Homeless: Individual_Homeless_per_100k
  • Family_Homeless: Family_Homeless_per_100k
  • Total_Homeless: Total_Homeless_per_100k
State Year Population Overdose_Male Overdose_Female Overdose_Total Median_Income LFPR Employer Non_Group Medicaid Medicare Military Uninsured Unemployment_Rate HS_Grad_Rate Individual_Homeless Family_Homeless Total_Homeless Poverty_Rate Overdose_Total_per_100k Employer_per_100k Non_Group_per_100k Medicaid_per_100k Medicare_per_100k Military_per_100k Uninsured_per_100k Individual_Homeless_per_100k Family_Homeless_per_100k Total_Homeless_per_100k
Alabama 2008 4718206 107 78 185 47244 57.2 2346200 245000.0 646300.0 578200 78700.00 632500.0 5.7 80.80 4086 1301 5387 14.3 3.92 49726.53 5192.65 13698.00 12254.66 1668.01 13405.52 86.60 27.57 114.17
Alabama 2009 4757938 118 88 206 46905 53.1 2230800 226000.0 808200.0 576300 93300.00 634500.0 11.0 80.80 4686 1394 6080 16.6 4.33 46885.86 4749.96 16986.35 12112.39 1960.93 13335.61 98.49 29.30 127.79
Alabama 2010 4785437 117 70 187 51999 53.2 2195700 232900.0 842600.0 599200 94100.00 686800.0 10.5 81.40 4553 4553 4553 17.2 3.91 45882.96 4866.85 17607.59 12521.32 1966.38 14351.88 95.14 95.14 95.14
Alabama 2011 4799069 101 75 176 51248 53.4 2191200 248700.0 857600.0 609800 107500.00 661100.0 9.6 81.90 4325 1233 5558 15.4 3.67 45658.86 5182.26 17870.13 12706.63 2240.02 13775.59 90.12 25.69 115.81
Alabama 2012 4815588 105 60 165 47382 53.5 2210500 233300.0 903600.0 625800 98500.00 624300.0 8.0 82.60 3825 1384 5209 16.2 3.43 45903.01 4844.68 18764.06 12995.30 2045.44 12964.15 79.43 28.74 108.17
Alabama 2013 4830081 104 62 166 47885 53.6 2143300 263600.0 893600.0 667700 94600.00 642900.0 7.2 83.10 3387 1302 4689 16.7 3.44 44374.00 5457.47 18500.72 13823.78 1958.56 13310.34 70.12 26.96 97.08
Alabama 2014 4841799 160 110 270 48812 53.3 2191400 268700.0 915500.0 683100 90700.00 564800.0 6.8 83.70 3115 1446 4561 17.8 5.58 45260.04 5549.59 18908.26 14108.39 1873.27 11665.09 64.34 29.86 94.20
Alabama 2015 4852347 180 102 282 50988 53.5 2205700 289700.0 948700.0 708200 97500.00 480300.0 6.1 84.30 2868 1102 3970 16.3 5.81 45456.35 5970.31 19551.36 14595.00 2009.34 9898.30 59.11 22.71 81.82
Alabama 2016 4863525 218 125 343 52633 53.9 2216700 318500.0 952800.0 712600 94400.00 435200.0 5.8 84.80 3019 1092 4111 16.2 7.05 45578.05 6548.75 19590.73 14651.92 1940.98 8948.24 62.07 22.45 84.53
Alabama 2017 4874486 277 145 422 49989 54.6 2179900 292200.0 977900.0 745800 93100.00 452600.0 4.4 85.30 2985 808 3793 15.0 8.66 44720.61 5994.48 20061.60 15300.07 1909.94 9285.08 61.24 16.58 77.81
Alabama 2018 4887681 248 133 381 51798 55.4 2232000 257400.0 928300.0 754900 96600.00 483400.0 3.9 85.04 2570 864 3434 16.0 7.80 45665.83 5266.30 18992.65 15444.95 1976.40 9890.17 52.58 17.68 70.26
Alabama 2019 4903185 262 152 414 64010 57.5 2250900 263400.0 929500.0 763800 99000.00 460400.0 3.2 87.10 2519 742 3261 12.9 8.44 45906.90 5372.02 18957.07 15577.63 2019.10 9389.81 51.37 15.13 66.51
Alabama 2020 5031864 421 190 611 61650 56.8 2224986 266185.7 897814.3 687200 95771.43 547842.9 6.4 88.00 2497 854 3351 14.9 12.14 44217.92 5290.00 17842.58 13656.97 1903.30 10887.47 49.62 16.97 66.60
Alabama 2021 5050380 667 314 981 63750 56.7 2281400 293700.0 941200.0 791900 102900.00 489600.0 3.4 87.90 2064 492 2556 15.9 19.42 45172.84 5815.40 18636.22 15680.01 2037.47 9694.32 40.87 9.74 50.61
Alabama 2022 5073903 751 346 1097 62290 56.7 2274100 293500.0 1023600.0 803500 99900.00 421400.0 2.5 88.80 2482 1270 3752 13.6 21.62 44819.54 5784.50 20173.82 15835.94 1968.90 8305.24 48.92 25.03 73.95

Summary Statistics

## 
## Summary Statistics
## ===================================================================================
## Statistic                     N      Mean       St. Dev.      Min          Max     
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Population                   765 6,274,779.00 7,068,697.00  546,043    39,512,223  
## Overdose_Male                765    543.64       710.98       7.50      5,736.00   
## Overdose_Female              765    255.30       279.12       2.50      1,710.00   
## Overdose_Total               765    798.95       984.62        10         7,347    
## Median_Income                765  64,820.71    13,486.62     37,714      112,500   
## LFPR                         765    62.04         4.46       49.30        73.20    
## Employer                     765 3,006,814.00 3,246,341.00 272,900.00 18,538,700.00
## Non_Group                    765  362,617.00   464,168.70  18,000.00  2,946,300.00 
## Medicaid                     765 1,147,663.00 1,477,773.00 50,800.00  10,466,200.00
## Medicare                     765  778,675.90   807,229.50  38,500.00  4,577,200.00 
## Military                     765  88,832.19    102,552.40   3,500.00   509,900.00  
## Uninsured                    765  707,730.90  1,052,865.00 18,600.00  6,781,300.00 
## Unemployment_Rate            765     5.84         2.27        2.00        13.70    
## HS_Grad_Rate                 765    88.38         3.45       78.90        95.00    
## Individual_Homeless          765   7,256.67    15,361.04      247        145,983   
## Family_Homeless              765   4,135.99     7,878.52       75        96,940    
## Total_Homeless               765  10,890.98    20,591.95      327        171,521   
## Poverty_Rate                 765    12.65         3.46        3.70        23.10    
## Overdose_Total_per_100k      765    13.53        10.21        0.63        70.19    
## Employer_per_100k            765  48,623.23     5,131.97   33,146.74    61,880.66  
## Non_Group_per_100k           765   5,707.48     1,476.35    2,116.46    10,829.41  
## Medicaid_per_100k            765  17,634.96     4,634.79    6,508.07    33,496.30  
## Medicare_per_100k            765  12,794.70     2,267.51    5,546.92    18,441.57  
## Military_per_100k            765   1,656.23     1,036.19     341.99     6,587.14   
## Uninsured_per_100k           765  10,344.59     4,350.53    2,342.92    23,422.56  
## Individual_Homeless_per_100k 765    109.04       92.12       18.24       725.22    
## Family_Homeless_per_100k     765    66.97        75.11        2.98       680.50    
## Total_Homeless_per_100k      765    168.13       150.42      21.22      1,217.53   
## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. EDA

Total Deaths

## Total Deaths (2008-2022): 611193
## Total Deaths per 100k people (2008-2022): 12.73

Overdose Deaths per 100k by State

Year over Year Trend

3. Modeling

Correlation for all years

VIF

VIF Results

Variable VIF
Employer_per_100k Employer_per_100k 17.45
Medicaid_per_100k Medicaid_per_100k 15.01
Uninsured_per_100k Uninsured_per_100k 12.60
Medicare_per_100k Medicare_per_100k 5.75
Poverty_Rate Poverty_Rate 5.05
HS_Grad_Rate HS_Grad_Rate 3.57
LFPR LFPR 3.49
Military_per_100k Military_per_100k 2.76
Median_Income Median_Income 2.65
Non_Group_per_100k Non_Group_per_100k 2.65
Unemployment_Rate Unemployment_Rate 2.45
Total_Homeless_per_100k Total_Homeless_per_100k 1.58

Fixed Effects Model

## 
## Fixed Effects Model with no scaling
## =============================================
##                       Dependent variable:    
##                   ---------------------------
##                     Overdose_Total_per_100k  
## ---------------------------------------------
## LFPR                        1.03***          
##                             (0.16)           
##                                              
## Unemployment_Rate           0.47**           
##                             (0.19)           
##                                              
## Medicare_per_100k          0.004***          
##                            (0.0003)          
##                                              
## ---------------------------------------------
## Observations                  765            
## R2                           0.41            
## Adjusted R2                  0.37            
## F Statistic         165.77*** (df = 3; 711)  
## =============================================
## Note:             *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Random Effects Model

## 
## Random Effects Model with no scaling
## =============================================
##                       Dependent variable:    
##                   ---------------------------
##                     Overdose_Total_per_100k  
## ---------------------------------------------
## LFPR                        0.65***          
##                             (0.14)           
##                                              
## Unemployment_Rate            0.14            
##                             (0.18)           
##                                              
## Medicare_per_100k          0.004***          
##                            (0.0002)          
##                                              
## Constant                   -72.93***         
##                             (11.08)          
##                                              
## ---------------------------------------------
## Observations                  765            
## R2                           0.35            
## Adjusted R2                  0.35            
## F Statistic                414.71***         
## =============================================
## Note:             *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Model Comparison

## 
## Comparison of Regression Models with no Logs
## =========================================================
##                             Dependent variable:          
##                   ---------------------------------------
##                   Opioid Overdose Deaths per 100k People 
##                      Fixed Effects      Random Effects   
## ---------------------------------------------------------
## LFPR                    1.03***             0.65***      
##                         (0.16)              (0.14)       
## Unemployment_Rate       0.47**               0.14        
##                         (0.19)              (0.18)       
## Medicare_per_100k      0.004***            0.004***      
##                        (0.0003)            (0.0002)      
## Constant                                   -72.93***     
##                                             (11.08)      
## ---------------------------------------------------------
## Observations              765                 765        
## =========================================================
## Note:                         *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Hausman test

Fixed-Effects Model is Preferred: Since the p-value is significantly less than 0.05, the test suggests that the fixed-effects model should be preferred over the random-effects model for our data. This implies that individual-specific effects are correlated with the explanatory variables, which violates one of the key assumptions of the random-effects model.

## 
##  Hausman Test
## 
## data:  Overdose_Total_per_100k ~ LFPR + Unemployment_Rate + Medicare_per_100k
## chisq = 58.473, df = 3, p-value = 1.246e-12
## alternative hypothesis: one model is inconsistent

5. Questions for Dr. MacDonald

Scaling Data

  • Some variables are in counts per 100k people & some are rates – Do we need to scale the counts per 100k variables differently than the rates columns?

  • What other things can I look into in terms of variable selection, is correlations and VIF enough?