Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

Published

August 11, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Azerbaijan, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, DR Congo, Ghana, Niger, Tunisia.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Azerbaijan

For Azerbaijan, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of April 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in May: The Azerbaijani government has arrested journalists and activists on charges such as foreign currency smuggling. These actions have led to increased concerns regarding the state of press freedom and civil liberties in Azerbaijan.

  • Security Mobilization in April: The Russian peacekeeping contingent began withdrawing from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, removing around 2,000 soldiers and equipment after Armenia recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Concurrently, Armenia has been mobilizing heavy equipment and additional forces along the conditional border towards eastern Zangezur, marking a significant military build-up that could impact negotiations between the two countries. Furthermore, the deployment of Armenian troops along the conditional border with Azerbaijan involved establishing offensive positions and constructing reinforcements. In efforts to stabilize the situation, Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to deploy their border services simultaneously on agreed sections of the borderline.

  • Protests in April and May: In Azerbaijan, the Milli Majlis responded to the European Parliament’s resolution concerning civil society and human rights in the country by dismissing it as biased and without foundation. Additionally, in the disputed territories of Baganys Ayrim and Ashaga Asquipara, local Armenians blocked roads to protest against the decision to return these areas to Azerbaijani control as part of territorial delimitation efforts, demonstrating local opposition to the reassignment. Elsewhere, in Armenia, protests occurred against the return of certain territories to Azerbaijan, and during a commemoration event, flags of Turkey and Azerbaijan were burned, indirectly involving Azerbaijan in these expressions of dissent.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Burkina Faso

For Burkina Faso, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: On May 8, the inauguration of educational and health infrastructures in Ouahigouya engaged a wide array of stakeholders, including local authorities and associations of parents and pupils, aimed at bettering students’ learning environments. The International Rescue Committee and Tin Tua, on May 16, outlined the accomplishments of their project in Fada, Gourma, which addressed the health and protection needs of vulnerable populations. Help Burkina handed over health and educational facilities to the community in Kaya on May 30, aiming to meet the urgent needs amid insecurity. Additionally, the NGO “Suppress the Margin” provided sanitation improvements to a high school in Thyou on May 3, and the SOLIDEV initiated the “Yools-Taaba” project on April 19 in Ouahigouya to assist displaced and host communities in rebuilding their livelihoods.

  • Censorship in April and June: The Superior Council of Communication (CSC) temporarily suspended BBC-Africa and VOA programs for disseminating an article that accused the Burkina Faso army of committing abuses against civilian populations. Additionally, the broadcast of TV5 programs was halted for two weeks, and access to several international news websites, including TV5 Monde, Deutsche Welle, West-France, Le Monde.fr, ApaNews, The Guardian, and AgenceEcofin, was indefinitely suspended, limiting the public’s access to a range of international news outlets and digital content. In Burkina Faso, the Conseil Supérieur de la Communication (CSC) took several measures against various media outlets and programs throughout mid-2024 based on their content and broadcasting practices. The CSC imposed a six-month suspension and a fine of 50 million CFA francs on both TV5MONDE and TV5 World-Africa starting from June 18, 2024, due to controversial remarks and tendentious broadcasts that were deemed harmful to public order. Additionally, the CSC suspended the weekly private television debate program BF1 and required the online newspaper Lefaso.net to enhance comment forum moderation and delete specific articles. Two new Canal+ channels, “Mandeka” and “Pulaagu”, were also suspended, pending further review before granting broadcasting permission.

  • Protests in June: In June 2024, hundreds of citizens rallied in front of the United Nations services in Ouagadougou, including the High Commission on Human Rights, demanding a public apology over allegations of abuses by security forces. There was another protest in front of the French Embassy, with demonstrators demanding its relocation. A separate gathering took place at the United Nations roundabout to denounce disinformation and support the political transition. Additionally, autonomous trade unions showed solidarity with lawyers on a work stoppage calling for adherence to criminal procedure rules, and in Dédougou, residents marched to support the political transition under Captain Ibrahim Traoré.

  • Purge/Replace in April: In Burkina Faso, recent events have further strained the country’s relationship with France, evidenced by the expulsion of three French diplomats in April 2024, following earlier expulsions of two French nationals and the withdrawal of French forces. Additionally, the internal administrative actions included the dismissal of three teacher-researchers from the Public Service during a Council of Ministers meeting in April 2024, and the resignation of Kader Traoré as Media Officer of the Standards of Burkina Faso in March 2024.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Cameroon

For Cameroon, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in April: In Cameroon, Human Rights Watch criticized the government’s decision to ban two key opposition coalitions, a move perceived as increasing repression of dissent. Additionally, two individuals deported from China, identified as Ambazonia separatist sympathizers, were reported to have been denied family visits while detained under harsh conditions at the State Secretariat for Defence in Yaounde. The government also prohibited the importation of Starlink kits, a decision following the suspension of the satellite internet service which was operating without official approval. Furthermore, a broadcast by Équinoxe TV, which covered topics on government alternation among others.

  • Corruption in April: In Cameroon, the Director General of the Autonomous Port of Douala was accused of embezzling 16 billion CFAF in connection with fictitious contracts for removing shipwrecks. The public electricity service, Eneo, reportedly owes the state a debt of 328 billion CFAF, contributing to significant electricity supply issues. The Mayor of Yaoundé and associated agents were accused of demanding nearly 4 billion CFAF from companies for unauthorized advertising. The Acting Prosecutor of Douala Bonanjo’s Court was removed following allegations of corruption involving 100 million CFAF. Additionally, the Cameroonian Football Federation suspended an Executive Committee member for serious financial misappropriations.

  • Legal Actions in April and May: The military court in Yaoundé is overseeing the case related to the murder of journalist Martinez Zogo. The Wouri High Court’s Court of Appeal has ordered Boeing and Pratt & Whitney to compensate the State of Cameroon, concluding a judicial dispute that spanned four decades. A corruption scandal involving an acting prosecutor has emerged, raising questions about the integrity of the judicial system. The trial of Vision 4 journalist Bruno Bidjang for spreading false news has also attracted media attention, highlighting issues related to press freedom in Cameroon. Recent legal proceedings in Cameroon include summonses issued to President Paul Biya and the Secretary General of the Presidency, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, by the Court of Major Instance in Yaoundé, following complaints by opposition MP Jean-Michel Nintcheu related to allegations of political misconduct. The trial has begun for individuals arrested in connection with the kidnapping, torture, and murder of journalist Martinez Mbami Zogo, implicating the external intelligence service. A financial scandal was exposed at the Autonomous Port of Douala, revealing misappropriations of funds under the leadership of Director General Cyrus Ngo’o. The Cameroonian Senate is also facing scrutiny after an audit ordered by President Paul Biya uncovered extensive financial misappropriations.

  • Legal Changes in June: In Cameroon, discussions are underway about reforming the electoral code to possibly require presidential candidates to have been militia members for three years. Alongside, the stamping fee for National Identity Cards has seen a notable increase from CFAF 2,800 to CFAF 10,000, sparking public discontent. Further, the President signed an amendment for the 2024 state budget under the Finance Act of 2023, adjusting costs upwards for the establishment and authentication of official documents. Additionally, from July 1, 2024, Cameroonian doctors will be required to use specific letterheads for prescriptions, as decreed by the Council of the National Order of Physicians of Cameroon. Lastly, a bill is in progress for ratifying an air transport agreement between Cameroon and Canada, intended to enhance commercial opportunities for airlines of both nations.

  • Security Mobilization in April: The government of Cameroon initiated a military operation in the district of Akwaya, South-West Cameroon, as announced by the Minister of Defence to address a pressing situation. Additionally, security operations were escalated by the National Gendarmerie in Yaoundé before Labour Day and the Unit of May 20 celebrations, focusing on areas prone to criminal activities to improve safety. Furthermore, authorities in Yaoundé, including local officials, have increased efforts to enforce order and discipline in the capital.

  • Purge/Replace in April: Jean Simplice Eboko, the Prosecutor of the Court of First Instance in Douala-Bonanjo, was removed from his position due to corruption charges. Maurice Kamto has called for the resignation of Erik Essousse, the Director General of ELECAM, and the entire Electoral Council, citing favoritism and operational issues. Changes in the leadership of state universities include the appointment of Professor Pegnyem Dieudonné Emmanuel at the University of Bertoua. The former mayor of Bibey, involved in a murder case, was replaced by Dagobert Avom Abega. Concerns were raised about corruption in Yaoundé’s urban administration.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

DR Congo

For DR Congo, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in April and May: In DR Congo, nearly $24 million USD was embezzled through diversions from Gécamines and the public treasury, with investigations allegedly being blocked. The Public Expenditure Observatory (ODEP) accused a high-level official of financial mismanagement concerning a contract for water stations. A network of corruption involving subcontracting companies in key mining areas was exposed, highlighting industrial corruption. A court sentenced individuals for embezzling funds from an educational institution, and high-level legal efforts were announced to combat corruption in upcoming elections. A financial scandal involving the opaque spending of over $298.9 million, or 3% of the state budget, between 2021 and 2023 was reported. The Court of Auditors conducted its first public hearings on budgetary and financial discipline, imposing fines on multiple public accountants for mismanagement. The National Road Maintenance Fund (Foner) reported an $80 million shortfall in revenues due to fraud in Ituri province, and the Congolese Anti-Corruption League (LICOCO) exposed a $10 million embezzlement in Moanda. Additionally, a case of smuggling involving a truck transporting copper cathode leaves was intercepted in Nagorno-Katanga.

  • Lethal Violence in May: In DR Congo, a series of violent events occurred in May 2024. On May 3, M23 rebels, supported by the Rwandan Defence Forces, bombed IDP camps in Goma, resulting in at least 35 deaths and 37 injuries. Attacks on Lac-Vert and Mugunga IDP camps near Goma on the same day caused at least 16 deaths and 30 injuries. The Allied Democratic Forces launched multiple attacks in the Beni territory and Ituri province throughout May, including one on May 14 that led to 11 civilian deaths and the burning of several houses in the Ndimo, Walese-Vonkutu area. On May 6, 16 people were killed by ADF rebels in Ituri province, and on April 30, clashes between police forces in Lukala, Central Kongo, resulted in at least seven deaths.

  • Non-lethal Violence in May: In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Mugunga internally displaced persons (IDP) camp in Goma, North Kivu, was bombed by M23/RDF rebels, resulting in several injuries. The Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) and local volunteers have been engaged in heavy fighting with M23/RDF rebels in North Kivu, leading to displacement and some territorial regain by the FARDC. Seven schoolchildren were abducted by Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels in Maimoya, North Kivu, prompting military intervention. In Kinshasa, an attack occurred at the residence of Deputy Prime Minister Vital Kamerhe by armed individuals. A boat was attacked on the Kasai River by an armed bandit near Mpwaka village in Kwilu province.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Ghana

For Ghana, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May and June: In Ghana, members of Civil Society Organisations in Northern Ghana petitioned the Auditor-General to audit the One Village One Dam projects for transparency and accountability. The Ghana Agroecology Movement, comprising 52 civil society organizations, opposed the commercialization of genetically modified products, citing concerns over sovereignty and dependency. About 1,000 sanitary pads were distributed to nine schools in Accra by the Young Trust Foundation to promote menstrual hygiene. WaterAid Ghana advocated for increased female representation in Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene facilities management, calling for at least 60% female participation. Engage Now Africa hosted a forum on human trafficking awareness and prevention at Abutia Senior High School, focusing on public education and victim support. A beach cleanup was led by the Wildlife and Human Resources Organisation (WHRO) in Ningo-Prampram on World Ocean Day, addressing plastic pollution. The Ghanavi Foundation collaborated with MP Dzifa Abla Gomashie to donate sanitary pads to schoolgirls on World Menstrual Health Day, supporting menstrual health. Volunteers from Telecel Ghana, alongside the Forestry Commission and local schools, participated in a tree planting initiative at the Chipa Tributary Forest Reserve, contributing to reforestation efforts as part of the Green Ghana agenda.

  • Censorship in May: In Ghana, the National Commission for Civic Education implemented a policy requiring the media to censor any content that might incite political unrest in anticipation of the 2024 General Elections. Concurrently, the Ghana Journalists Association removed a media blacklist against two Members of Parliament after a perceived misconduct review. The Accra Metropolitan Assembly established a temporary prohibition on drumming and noise-making across the Accra metropolis, affecting local religious activities. Meanwhile, the Planning Committee of the Christian Divine Church’s 65th Anniversary issued a caution against misreporting on their event. Additionally, the Bank of Ghana enforced a directive against the public exchange of foreign currency, aiming to regulate its sale and purchase under national law.

  • Corruption in May: The former CEO of COCOBOD, Dr. Stephen Opuni, and businessman Seidu Agongo are on trial for allegedly causing significant financial loss to the state through fraudulent transactions. Tamale South MP Haruna Iddrisu is accused of accepting bribes from a local company. The Office of the Special Prosecutor and the Controller and Accountant General’s Department uncovered millions in ghost worker payments, revealing issues in the public sector’s financial administration. Allegations of professional misconduct have surfaced against Attorney General Godfred Yeboah Dame in the trial of a minority leader. The sale of SSNIT’s hotels to Agriculture Minister Bryan Acheampong is under scrutiny for potential cronyism and misappropriation of state assets.

  • Defamation Cases in June: Member of Parliament Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa is involved in a defamation suit concerning discussions on the National Cathedral project, with the case progressing through major legal proceedings, including objections and rejections at the Court of Appeal. Musician Livingstone Etse Satekla, known as Stonebwoy, has filed a GH₵3 million defamation case against National Democratic Congress Parliamentary Candidate Baba Sadiq Abu, which also involves police complaints regarding threats. In another defamation case, road contractor Kofi Job Gyebi is seeking GH₵5 million in damages from a National Democratic Congress member over a damaging video. Additionally, a trial is underway involving businessman Richard Jakpa and Minority Leader Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, who are accused of causing financial loss to Ghana through an ambulance deal, with the Attorney General opposing motions to end the trial.

  • Legal Actions in May: The Supreme Court of Ghana is scheduled to hear a case against the anti-LGBT+ bill on May 8, 2024, with potential implications for the country’s debt restructuring and the World Bank’s stance on LGBTQ rights. Daniel Asiedu has begun his defense in the murder trial of former MP JB Danquah-Adu, amidst controversies including claims of police assault. The Office of the Special Prosecutor and the Controller and Accountant General’s Department have exposed payroll fraud within the Government Payroll Administration, revealing unauthorized validators and fictitious entities. Allegations of bribery involving Tamale South MP Haruna Iddrisu have surfaced, prompting demands for an investigation. The trial related to the murder of two young individuals in Abesim, implicating footballer Richard Appiah, is moving towards a day-to-day hearing to ensure swift justice.

  • Legal Changes in April: The Ghanaian Parliament passed the Human Sexual Rights and Family Values Act, known as the Anti-LGBTQIA+ Bill, which is awaiting presidential assent. The Supreme Court of Ghana ruled that the payment of salary allowances to the spouses of the President and Vice-President is unconstitutional, setting a precedent on the limits of parliamentary actions regarding public funds. A proposed Affirmative Action (Gender Equality) Bill aims to improve women’s representation in public and political spheres. The newly signed Wildlife Resources Management Act focuses on enhancing wildlife conservation efforts. Furthermore, there is a proposal for a Foreign Fighters Act to bolster the country’s counter-terrorism measures by focusing on the reintegration of radicalized youth and implementing stricter penalties for terrorism-related activities.

  • Protests in June: Members of Parliament, organized labor, and citizens demonstrated against the sale of a majority stake in hotels owned by SSNIT to a private entity, citing concerns of potential conflicts of interest. Similarly, a public demonstration led by notable figures took place against the country’s erratic electric power supply, stressing the adverse impacts on daily life and health. The Medical Laboratory Workers Union initiated a nationwide strike, suspending lab services in medical facilities over working conditions disputes. The College of Education Teachers Association of Ghana (CETAG) also commenced an indefinite strike, demanding the fulfillment of economic rights and agreed compensation. Furthermore, over 2000 artisans protested against their eviction by the Tema Development Corporation from a significant area of land in the Greater Accra Region, which they use for residences and businesses.

  • Purge/Replace in May: In Ghana, the National Democratic Congress called for the resignation or dismissal of Attorney General and Minister for Justice Godfred Yeboah Dame over allegations of attempting to coerce a witness in a high-profile trial. Chief Justice Gertrude Torkornoo unexpectedly changed the Supreme Court panel for an appeal case, raising concerns over judicial interference. The Forum for Accountability and Justice demanded the removal of Kofi Bosompem Osafo-Maafo, the Director-General of the Social Security and National Insurance Trust, citing mismanagement issues. A petition was filed against the CEO of the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Professor Otchere Addai-Mensah, alleging misappropriation and violations of procurement law. These incidents have drawn attention to concerns related to integrity, transparency, and the rule of law in the country’s judicial and public service sectors.

  • Lethal Violence in April and May: In the Greater Accra Region of Ghana, violence during the Kplejoo festival in Tema Manhean resulted in two civilian deaths and three injuries following a clash between youth and Navy personnel. In Obengman, Ga South Municipality, a dispute over land led to a deadly shooting by land guards, killing one person and injuring others in a farming community. A student from the University of Energy and Natural Resources was killed in a robbery near Abronye, with six others injured. In Kasoa, a man died from injuries after being beaten over false accusations of missing manhood. A teenage girl in Nsuobri, Central Region, was murdered by her stepfather, prompting a police investigation. Additionally, two off-duty police officers were fatally shot by unknown gunmen in the Trassacco Valley area of Accra. A land dispute in Millennium City near Kasoa led to the death of a soldier, Lance Corporal Michael Danso. A 19-year-old was shot dead in the Oti Region following clashes between police and local youth. The murder of two herdsmen in Mame Krobo-Nkwanta, Kwahu Afram Plains South District, raised fears among the local population. Sergeant Amoah Moses of the Ashanti Regional Police was killed by unknown assailants in the Bobiri Forest Reserve near Ejisu.

  • Non-lethal Violence in May: At Tema Port in Ghana, a physical altercation occurred between Ghana Ports and Harbours Authority security personnel and officers from the Ghana Immigration Service. Voter registration exercises in Adugyama and Cape Coast North were marked by violence; in Adugyama, a clash between members of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) resulted in three injuries, while in Cape Coast North, the NPP’s Communications Director was assaulted with a cutlass. In Banda, a pregnant woman was injured after being attacked by her husband. During the NPP’s parliamentary primary in Yendi, a journalist was attacked, leading the Member of Parliament to issue an apology and advocate for peaceful political processes.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Niger

For Niger, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in May: An NGO named “Ensemble Main in the Niger-Russia Main” launched its activities in Niamey, advocating for Niger’s full sovereignty. Similarly, Kemi Séba from the Pan-Africanist Emergency NGO held a press conference to discuss Niger’s political climate post-July 26, 2023, offering praise for recent political decisions. Additionally, the NGO Don De Soi conducted an awareness workshop in Maradi to address the issue of begging, aiming to educate and find solutions. On National Women’s Day, the Agadez Women’s Network (RAZANY) provided essential food products to orphans at the SOS village in Niamey.

  • Defamation Cases in June: In Niger, the reinstatement of imprisonment for defamation, insults, and the dissemination of data that disturbs public order through social networks was signed into law by the Head of State, General Abdourahamane Tiani, on 7 June 2024. This legal change affects the use of social media and freedom of speech within the country. Cases of defamation have risen to prominence, involving political figures, journalists, business tycoons, and social media influencers being accused or involved in legal battles over the defamation and spreading of false information. These incidents include a high-profile defamation case between politicians, a journalist charged with disseminating false information about a government official, a business tycoon suing a media outlet, and a social media influencer’s case.

  • Legal Changes in June: On June 7, 2024, an amendment was signed into law to impose stricter penalties for cyber content considered disruptive to public order. Additionally, on May 29, 2024, the Minister of Justice issued a decree that prohibits non-governmental and human rights organizations from accessing prison facilities, affecting their ability to conduct oversight. Moreover, preliminary drafts of both the Code of Criminal Procedure and the Penal Code were officially presented on June 20, 2024.

  • Security Mobilization in April and May: The United States agreed to withdraw its troops from Niger following the denunciation of the 2012 agreement on the Status of United States Military Personnel and Civilian Employees in the country. This decision is related to the two countries’ security policies and may have implications for regional stability. The United States has announced that its forces will withdraw from Niger by mid-September 2024, involving redeployment process discussions between the U.S. and Niger. Concurrently, the Armed Forces of Nigeria led a major national military exercise in the Tillia area of Tahoua, Niger, from 20 May to 03 June 2024, in collaboration with Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and Togo. Additionally, Germany has decided to extend its military presence in Niamey, Niger, beyond 31 May 2024, following the EU’s withdrawal.

  • Protests in April: In April 2024, protests took place across Niger, specifically in Agadez and Niamey, where thousands of demonstrators demanded the departure of American soldiers from the country. These protests involved participation from local authorities, civil society organizations, and prominent figures, including the Governor of Agadez and the Sultan of L’Air. The demonstrations on April 13 and April 21 included various groups unified in their demand for the United States to withdraw its military presence, citing concerns over inaction in combating terrorism and defending Niger’s sovereignty.

  • Lethal Violence in April: On April 21 in Touloun Damissa, Tillabéri Region, a terrorist attack by ISIS in the Sahel led to the deaths of six soldiers. Earlier, on April 8, a Nigerian Armed Forces patrol vehicle hit an IED near the village of Tingara, resulting in the deaths of six soldiers and serious injuries to two others. On April 15, an attack targeted a Defence and Security Forces unit in the Samira area, Tillabéri region, killing at least five soldiers. Additionally, on April 8, a patrol vehicle encountered an IED near Tin Gara, with unspecified casualties. A subsequent attack in the Tingara area of Inates, Tillabéri region, killed six soldiers, and the army responded by neutralizing about twenty terrorists.

  • Non-lethal Violence in April: Boko Haram militants ambushed soldiers in the Diffa region, injuring fourteen members of the Defence and Security Forces in separate incidents. In the Tillaberi region, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara targeted villages, threatening civilians. Boko Haram attempted an incursion in Bandi village, capturing nine citizens and livestock, but they were later compelled to surrender by the Multinational Joint Force. Additionally, a significant number of Boko Haram members in the Diffa region have surrendered to the Niger Defence and Security Forces in recent weeks.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Niger.

Tunisia

For Tunisia, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in April: In Tunisia, the National Union of Tunisian Journalists organized a stand in solidarity with journalist Ghassan bin Khalifa, protesting the intimidation of journalists through the application of anti-terrorism and money laundering laws. Concurrently, the International Organization for Migration, in partnership with the Tunisian Red Crescent, provided essential food and water supplies to 7,000 migrants stranded in the state of Saqdis during Ramadan.

  • Censorship in May: In Tunisia, the National Union of Tunisian Journalists has documented constraints on media freedom imposed by security agents and officials, which include unjustified requests for permits to engage in journalism activities, in violation of the country’s laws.

  • Corruption in April and May: Authorities in Tunisia exposed a network operating between Algeria and Tunisia involved in trafficking, currency smuggling, and money laundering, seizing over 2 million dinars and implicating individuals connected to high-ranking officials. Former and current government ministers, along with well-known businessmen, were investigated for financial misconduct, including favoritism in illegal property transactions, money laundering, and the illegal exploitation of state land. These cases involved sectors such as real estate and telecommunications. Legal actions were taken against individuals and officials for corruption and financial crimes. Businessman Shafiq al-Juriyah faced charges of money laundering and abusing company funds, while Riad Ben Fazl Al-Muhal, the General Coordinator of the Pole Party, was sentenced for financial offenses. Real estate court officials were sentenced for fraudulent dealings with state estates, and a former bank director was penalized for embezzling significant funds. Investigations also targeted individuals like Burhan Bisses and Murad Al-Zaghidi for suspicions of money laundering and illicit enrichment.

  • Defamation Cases in April and May: In Tunisia, media personality Mohammed Buglab was tried on April 17, 2024, at the criminal division of the court of first instance in Tunis. The trial was based on accusations by a staff member of the Ministry of Religious Affairs, who claimed that Buglab defamed her in the media regarding her business travels with the Minister of Religious Affairs, labeling these travels as a waste of public funds. In recent events, Maher Zeid was sentenced by the Criminal Chamber of the Court of First Instance in Tunis to one year in prison for falsely attributing affairs to a public official and an additional six months for public libel. Maryam Sacy, a leader of the Free Constitutional Party, was denied release and is scheduled for trial on May 16 for defaming a media system’s data, despite her defense team’s request for a delay for a scientific review of the case file. Additionally, journalist Murad Al-Zaghidi and media professional Burhan Basseys were detained for 48 hours by the Department of Public Prosecutions on charges involving defamation, according to Mohamed Zeitouna, a spokesperson for the court of first instance in Tunisia.

  • Legal Actions in May and June: The Court of Appeal of Tunisia referred 12 individuals, including leaders of the Ennahda movement, on terrorism-related charges. The Court of First Instance in Tunis convicted media professionals for producing and promoting false news, sentenced a party leader for financial crimes involving smuggling gains abroad, and took actions against individuals concerning a death investigation and a conspiracy to state security, with the case transferred to a division competent to hear terrorism cases. The head of the Ennahdha movement, Rached Ghannouchi, and others were charged with conspiracy to attack interior security and attempting to alter the State apparatus. The former General Secretary of the National Association of Justice Officers, Hattab Ben Osman, was referred for prosecution on terrorism charges. Legal actions were taken against Nour-Din al-Bahiri, a leader of the Al-Nahda movement, in connection with a death investigation, and against political activist Shima Issa for inciting military disobedience. Former Secretary of State Hatem Al-Ashi is appealing a six-month prison sentence related to a conflict of interest case.

  • Legal Changes in May: An amendment to Act No. 1968-7 on the Status of Foreigners in Tunisia proposes prison sentences and financial penalties for those violating its provisions or aiding illegal entry or residence, amid national security concerns related to increased flows of Sub-Saharan people. Another legislative change involves the amendment to Article 411 of the Commercial Code, focusing on the regulation of unprovided cheques to protect involved parties, which will be urgently considered by the Assembly of People’s Representatives. Additionally, an amendment to Joint Sectoral Agreements raises basic wages and monthly grants for private sector workers by 6.75%. A draft law on maternity and paternity leave has been introduced to support family rights and promote gender equality. The president has also advanced a draft law to secure a $300 million loan for urgent food security interventions.

  • Security Mobilization in May and June: Tunisia has requested the international community to condemn and respond to the military deployment, which includes tanks, by the Zionist army in Rafah. In Tunisia, a military aircraft was deployed from a military airport to provide food aid to the Palestinian people, as part of an operation directed by the Tunisian President to tackle the consequences of a blockade. In another event, the Tunisian National Guard’s intelligence units arrested an inspector linked to a terrorist organization, who had previously been sentenced to 20 years in prison.

  • Raids in May: The Sfax National Guard District and the Maritime District conducted raids against 22 illegal maritime border crossing attempts, detaining ten individuals and seizing equipment. In a separate operation, the Garjani Police raided the office of lawyer Siniyah Al-Dhamani in Tunis, following a court subpoena. Security units supervised by the National Security Region of Carthage evacuated an occupied youth boat headquarters in coordination with the public prosecutor’s office and the Tunisian Red Crescent. In Manouba, the criminal police force raided two coffee shops involved in unauthorized electronic sports activities, arresting five people and confiscating mobile phones and gambling proceeds. Legal steps were also taken to arrest Siniyah Al-Dhamani following a subpoena by the investigating judge in Tunis.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.