Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Mozambique, Nepal, Rwanda, South Sudan, Zimbabwe. We are forecasting major events for Nepal.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)
Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
Mozambique
For Mozambique, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Defamation Cases in April and May: In Mozambique, a court in Quelimane ruled that the defamation case brought against Manuel De Araújo, the chairman of the district election commission, was without merit. The lawsuit stemmed from accusations made by Zacarias Muheia, who claimed Araújo had committed defamation on social networks after the election results were announced on October 11. In Mozambique, the Public Prosecutor charged five Anglican priests with the defamation of a colleague, indicating tensions and disputes within the religious community there. This event reflects the legal and social challenges related to defamation accusations among members of religious organizations in Mozambique.
Disaster in April: In Mozambique, a shipwreck off the coast resulted in approximately 98 fatalities, with an overload being a significant factor. Concurrently, the country faced widespread flooding in Maputo due to torrential rains, affecting nearly 100,000 people and causing 9 deaths alongside infrastructure damage and displacement. Central Mozambique is grappling with a severe drought in Sofala Province, causing food insecurity for approximately 220,000 individuals. Additionally, a cholera outbreak since October has resulted in 15,637 cases and 33 deaths, highlighting issues within the healthcare system. Over 62,000 cases of hemorrhagic conjunctivitis reported in recent months have also posed health challenges, including severe complications and impacts on daily life across various regions.
Legal Changes in May: The Mozambican parliament approved amendments to the Electoral Law to bolster transparency and prevent fraud by clarifying the roles of the Constitutional Council and District Courts in legal and electoral disputes. Concurrently, the Assembly of the Republic passed revisions to the Public Probity Law, expanding the requirement for police officers, including traffic police and members of the National Criminal Investigation Service, to declare their assets as a move against corruption. President Filipe Nyusi promulgated the Punctual Revision Law number 4/2019 to improve the provincial governance framework, focusing on organizational standards and the functioning of local administration. Moreover, the Council of Ministers revised the Decree on the Deposit Guarantee Fund to align with international best practices and added financing resolution measures for credit institutions. Additionally, the government halted the implementation of new minimum tariffs for telecommunications services, including voice calls, SMS, and data, introduced by the National Communications Institute, citing concerns over market stability and unfair competition.
Security Mobilization in April and May: In Mozambique, the Southern African Development Community Mission (SAMIM) has begun withdrawals after three years of military intervention in Cabo Delgado to combat Islamist terrorism. Botswana and South Africa are among the countries involved. However, South Africa has extended the deployment of 1,495 Defence Force members in the region until December 2024 to continue addressing terrorism. Mozambique’s Defence and Security Forces have launched an offensive in central Cabo Delgado against terrorists. Rwandan troops are expanding their involvement in Cabo Delgado by integrating military and philanthropic efforts. A military escort was disrupted due to clashes on the N380 highway. Rwanda is sending additional troops to augment the existing 2,500 soldiers in Cabo Delgado, as discussed during a meeting between the Mozambican and Rwandan Presidents in Kigali. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Military Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) is phasing out its deployment, with forces from Angola and Namibia having already withdrawn. Tanzanian troops will continue assisting Mozambican defense forces in fighting Islamist terrorists in Cabo Delgado, outside the framework of SAMIM, as stated by the President of Mozambique.
Protests in April and May: In Mozambique, over 50,000 health professionals went on a national strike due to delayed negotiations and unsatisfactory progress in discussions with the government regarding their working conditions. Concurrently, residents in the Matlemele district protested against road safety issues by erecting barricades, while around 60 teachers from Machava Sede Secondary School in Matola city went on strike over unpaid overtime wages since 2022. Additionally, semi-collective passenger transporters paused their operations to call attention to poor road conditions in Avenida Don Alexandre, exacerbated by recent rains. In a less significant event, people from the Maxaquene district protested by blocking a street over disturbances caused by a retention basin. Health professionals have been on strike since April 29, demanding improvements to their working conditions, including risk allowances and overtime pay, following this action, claims emerged of almost 1,000 deaths due to the lack of care. Concurrently, citizens protested against increased internet and phone fees that were introduced on May 4, voicing concerns over restricted access to information. Additionally, members and supporters of the opposition party, Renamo, demonstrated against the re-election of its leader, marking their dissent by gathering outside Renamo offices and returning party memorabilia. The head of the Mozambican Association of Judges also voiced concerns over the judiciary’s status following wage structure changes. Furthermore, transport operators in Matola ceased services temporarily to protest against their working conditions.
Non-lethal Violence in May: In Mozambique, Islamist insurgents affiliated with the Islamic State launched an attack on the town of Macomia in the Cabo Delgado province, resulting in intense clashes with the Mozambican Armed Defence Forces and Rwandan troops, with significant disruptions but no reported casualties. Additionally, Mozambican and Rwandan troops engaged in direct confrontations with terrorists in Mocímboa da Praia and Nangade districts, as part of efforts to counter terrorist activities and restore order in northern Mozambique. A Mozambican businessman was kidnapped and later released, underscoring the risks of abductions in Maputo, while vandalism in commercial establishments on Josina Machel Avenue in Maputo and a severe case of domestic violence in Nicoadala were reported.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Nepal
For Nepal, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in May: In Nepal, environmental activists, including students of environmental science, protested against deforestation, forest fires, and for biodiversity conservation, focusing on the protection of Chure and other forests. Activists and families affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict conducted hunger strikes in Kathmandu, prompting the National Human Rights Commission to call for government action in repatriating bodies and assisting stranded Nepalis. A legal challenge was raised against the traffic police’s use of corporal punishment, claiming it was outside of legal bounds. Additionally, the National Human Rights Commission condemned the police’s excessive use of force during a protest by people with disabilities, emphasizing the importance of safeguarding the rights of vulnerable groups.
Censorship in April: In Nepal, the Supreme Court ordered sidhakura.com to remove defamatory content and stopped further publications on the issue, initiating legal action against the publisher and editor. Additionally, the Supreme Court demanded the deletion of news related to a sting operation from a media outlet within 24 hours. The Cyber Bureau of Nepal Police also requested the abstention from posting content on social media that could affect inter-community relations. Further impacting the digital sphere, the government shut down the social network TikTok. Meanwhile, the Nepal Police advised journalists to exercise caution in reporting on ongoing investigations.
Corruption in April, May and June: In Nepal, the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) has filed cases against individuals in high-profile sectors, including a former Minister for Tourism and executives in the telecommunications and education sectors, for causing substantial financial losses to the government and other stakeholders. Cases include the embezzlement of funds from a cooperative, affecting over 10,000 depositors, and allegations of illegal wealth acquisition by a managing director of Nepal Telecom. A corruption case related to a $209.6 million Airbus A330 deal also resulted in significant financial detriment to the government.A multi-billion rupee cooperative embezzlement scam has implicated Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane and other officials, affecting millions of depositors. A significant land swap scam involving top political figures, a corruption case related to the procurement of equipment for the Security Printing Center, and fraudulent events concerning the lease of government land by former officials of the Nepal Children’s Organization have been reported. Additionally, the arrest of the Kantipur Media Group chairman on charges related to his citizenship certificate has raised concerns over press freedom.The CIAA has also filed a corruption case against the Chief Secretary and 11 others for irregularities in awarding a contract for printing excise duty stickers. Allegations of fraud within cooperatives, notably involving the Krishi Bikash Multipurpose Cooperative and the Prime Multi-Purpose Cooperative Society, have affected hundreds of depositors. Investigations are underway concerning suspected irregularities in the construction of two major airports, and the Supreme Court has revealed a scandal in the illegal land swap of the Giri Bandhu Tea Estate.
Defamation Cases in April and June: In Nepal, the Supreme Court initiated an unprecedented suo moto contempt of court case against the publisher and editor of sidhakura.com for publishing content deemed defamatory towards one of its justices, aiming to protect the judiciary’s reputation. Separately, a cybercrime case was filed against a Metropolitan Municipality employee in Kathmandu for accusing Mayor Balen Shah on social media of embezzling funds, which has brought defamation and public trust into focus. In Nepal, a legal action unfolded as the Kathmandu District Attorney’s Office filed a defamation case against three personnel associated with sidhakura.com, including the publisher Yubaraj Kandel, executive editor Nabin Dhungana, and Rajkumar Timilsina. They were accused of disseminating fake audio content that purportedly defamed notable media figures and members of the judiciary. The prosecution sought penalties including up to five years of imprisonment and a fine of Rs100,000 for each defendant, marking a significant legal challenge under the frameworks of the Electronic Transactions Act 2008 and the Criminal Code 2017.
Legal Actions in April, May and June: The Supreme Court of Nepal overturned a previous order by the Patan High Court regarding the detainment of 10 individuals implicated in a counterfeit Bhutanese refugee scam. The Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) filed corruption charges against several high-profile figures, including a former minister and corporate executives, over various allegations, including a procurement scam involving Airbus A330s and illicit wealth accumulation. The Supreme Court ordered the detention of a suspended district judge in a landmark marital rape case. The Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister are under scrutiny for alleged misappropriation of cooperative funds. A parliamentary committee was established by the ruling coalition and the main opposition Nepali Congress to probe extensive cooperative fraud implicating the Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister. The Patan High Court acquitted cricketer Sandeep Lamichhane of rape charges due to insufficient evidence, overturning a prior conviction by the Kathmandu District Court. The Dhanusha District Court prolonged the detention of Kantipur Media Group Chairman Kailash Sirohiya amid a citizenship inquiry. The CIAA initiated multiple corruption charges against the former executive director of the Surakshan Printing Center, Vikal Paudel, among others, for corrupt practices related to the procurement of security printing press items. The CIAA also filed a corruption case against Chief Secretary Baikuntha Aryal and 12 others over irregularities in the printing of excise duty stickers, leading to Aryal’s automatic suspension. The Supreme Court scheduled a ruling on a writ petition to stop investigations against CPN (Maoist Centre) Vice Chairman Agni Sapkota and ordered the file against Gitendra Babu (GB) Rai to be presented following accusations of embezzlement. The Sarlahi District Court convicted spiritual leader Ram Bahadur Bomjon, known as “Buddha Boy,” of child sexual abuse, with further hearings to determine his punishment. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal addressed Parliament, promising action against those responsible for the Tikapur massacre.
Purge/Replace in April and June: In Nepal, the Supreme Court intervened to stop the removal of the Executive Chairpersons of Gorkhapatra Corporation and Nepal Television, emphasizing the role of judicial oversight in executive decisions. The Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister faces accusations and demands for resignation over embezzlement, impacting public trust and political dynamics. Multiple Chief Ministers resigned in various provinces, showing political instability and changes in power at the provincial level. Additionally, the government executed a vast administrative reshuffle, transferring several secretaries and high-ranking officials to consolidate bureaucratic control. Furthermore, the Bagmati Chief Minister’s appointment of four new ministers from the CPN-UML indicates ongoing political strategy and coalition realignments within the provincial government. In Nepal, the government led by the Prime Minister made a notable move by recalling 11 ambassadors from key countries for reasons related to political and diplomatic shifts, affecting Nepal’s international relations. Additionally, the highest-ranking civil servant in the country faced suspension and was charged with corruption, marking a significant case of accountability within Nepal’s bureaucracy. Political changes were also evident at the provincial level, where a Chief Minister was removed from office following a lost vote of confidence, highlighting changes in political leadership. Further, substantial personnel adjustments were made within the judicial system and the Ministry of Federal Affairs and General Administration, with numerous transfers and cuts in posts affecting the structural and operational dynamics of these entities.
Non-lethal Violence in April: Members of the Madhesh provincial assembly from the Janamat Party and Nepali Congress engaged in vandalism during a session, causing a brief postponement. This incident was part of larger political disputes in the region. Elsewhere, a notable political figure and three others were assaulted in Sarlahi, leading to police detentions and an investigation. Complaints of caste-based verbal abuse were lodged, underscoring issues of caste discrimination. Additionally, a clash between student political groups at Shankardev Campus necessitated authority intervention, and a remittance agency owner was robbed at gunpoint.
Forecasting
Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Protests in Q4 2024.
Rwanda
For Rwanda, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Censorship in May and June: The Rwandan government denied entry to a senior researcher from Human Rights Watch, allegedly due to a misrepresentation of the visit’s purpose. This occurred on May 13, 2024, affecting the organization’s operations within the country. Human Rights Watch reported on May 30, 2024, that the Rwandan government prevented its researchers, including a senior researcher, from entering the country. This step significantly restricts the monitoring and reporting of human rights within Rwanda.
Defamation Cases in April: A journalist in Rwanda, Jean Paul Nkundineza, was sentenced to three years in prison and fined 1. 1 million Rwandan Francs by the Nyarugenge Primary Court. The charges against him included public insults and defamation involving former Miss Rwanda, Jolly Mutesi.
Legal Changes in April: Recent legislation changes in Rwanda have included a broad range of focuses. The government has advanced proposals to amend laws concerning refugees and migrants, relevant to a migration agreement with the UK, which itself has passed a law for the deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda. Additionally, Rwanda seeks to revise its mineral tax law to encourage domestic processing of minerals and has put forward changes to enhance the management and financial transparency of cooperatives. Moreover, a draft law has been approved to grant greater independence to Rwanda’s authority responsible for investigating aviation incidents, aimed at improving civil aviation safety and oversight.
Protests in May: Protests erupted in London in opposition to the UK government’s plan to detain migrants before deporting them to Rwanda. This plan involves relocating asylum seekers from their temporary accommodations as part of the contentious deportation agreement with Rwanda.
Lethal Violence in May: In Rwanda, the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) confirmed the deaths of the last two men indicted for their roles in the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi. Additionally, two youths affiliated with the CFFDI party were involved in an incident that resulted in the death of a 22-year-old individual attempting to cross a bridge on May 10, 2024.
Non-lethal Violence in May: Firstly, following grenade attacks in Bujumbura, Burundi, on May 10, 2024, Burundi accused Rwanda of orchestrating these incidents, an accusation Rwanda denied, causing tension between the two countries. Similarly, Rwanda faced accusations from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for bombings of IDP camps near Goma on May 3, 2024, which Rwanda also denied. An independent investigation titled “Rwanda Classified” was released globally, revealing a repression system led by the regime targeting dissenters across Europe and Africa. Additionally, Rwandan troops have been reported to be actively pursuing Islamic State-linked terrorists in Mozambique in coordination with Mozambican forces.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
South Sudan
For South Sudan, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in April and June: In South Sudan, a seven-member committee was formed to investigate the environmental impact of illegal logging in Morobo County, following concerns raised by activist Edmond Yakani and Nunu Kumba, the Speaker of the national legislature. Environmentalist Bol Abraham Garang highlighted ecological threats posed by oil exploration in the Block B2 reserve of Jonglei State. Civil society activist Edmond Yakani urged politicians to maintain their allegiances ahead of the general elections. Women’s rights activist Latto Catherine drew attention to inadequate law enforcement on gender-based violence in Western Bahr el Ghazal. Amnesty International demanded the release of Morris Mabior Awikjok Bak, detained for over a year by the National Security Service in South Sudan after his arrest in Kenya. The South Sudan NGO Forum, representing hundreds of NGOs, addressed issues of sexual exploitation against women within NGOs. Women activists advocated for the passage of the Anti-GBV bill to combat gender-based violence. The People’s Coalition for Civic Action called for the resignation of President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, seeking government reforms. Ter Manyang from the Center for Peace and Advocacy raised concerns over the delayed presentation of the national budget for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, emphasizing the necessity to comply with the East African Community Treaty.
Defamation Cases in May: The Juba District Court “First Class” initiated proceedings in a defamation case involving the Minister of Public Education and Guidance in South Sudan. Additionally, the Juba First Grade County Court began hearing a defamation case filed by the Minister of General Education and Instruction, Awut Deng Achuil.
Disaster in May: In South Sudan, the United Nations reported that more than 7 million people face severe food insecurity with 79,000 at risk of catastrophic hunger due to various factors including conflict, economic crisis, and climate impacts. Additionally, the nation faces threats of severe flooding, as indicated by reports from the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation and other authorities, due to excess water release from Lake Victoria, potentially affecting millions in counties such as Jonglei and Rumbek. Flash floods have already impacted at least 700 households in Wau and areas of Juba, damaging homes and infrastructure. Meanwhile, a measles outbreak in Jonglei State’s Pigi County has resulted in fatalities and hospitalizations among children.
Legal Changes in April and June: There has been international pressure to lift newly imposed taxes and charges on humanitarian aid, deemed essential for the relief of millions in need. The urgency to amend the National Security Service (NSS) Act has been highlighted by national and international bodies as crucial for the country’s security structure. Additionally, the Central Bank’s ban on all unlicensed foreign exchange trade aims to stabilize the local currency and combat money laundering, alongside economic reforms. Moreover, opposition from major political groups has met the Political Parties Council’s high registration fees for political parties, affecting the democratic process. Lastly, the country’s endorsement of the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime and its supplementary protocols marks a significant step in legal efforts to combat organized crime. In South Sudan, the president declared the Bank of South Sudan an autonomous entity to prevent political interference. Additionally, the Cabinet passed an amendment requiring NGOs to employ 80% South Sudanese staff and ensure 35% representation for women. The National Youth Development Policy 2024 was approved to support youth across various sectors. The country also began a review process for the 2008 Criminal Procedure Code to address legal inconsistencies. Furthermore, guidelines were established for creating and managing safe homes for survivors of gender-based violence, emphasizing protection and prevention of re-traumatization.
Protests in June: Over two hundred individuals in Bor town and dozens in Port City protested over delayed civil servant salaries and the high cost of living, particularly the soaring food prices. Concurrently, employees from Bahr el Ghazal, Upper Nile, and Rumbek Universities initiated a sit-in strike due to unpaid salaries for seven months and unresolved medical allowances for five years. In a related development, inmates at Kuajok Main Prison in Warrap State struck following a punitive general lockup order after a prison break, leading to clashes with wardens. Additionally, women groups, including wives and widows of ware veterans, protested by presenting a white paper on the impact of delayed salaries on basic food needs.
Purge/Replace in April: In South Sudan, President Salva Kiir made several significant administrative and legislative changes. He revoked the appointments of multiple SPLM-IO lawmakers in Parliament, including positions within the opposition National Transitional Legislative Council, and dismissed Foreign Minister James Pitia Morgan, appointing him as Presidential Envoy to the Great Lakes Region. Additionally, the Chief Administrator of the Greater Pibor Administration Area and two undersecretaries in the Ministry of Defense and Veterans Affairs were dismissed, along with multiple appointments within the South Sudan Opposition Alliance to legislative bodies being revoked. In Warrap State, a cabinet reshuffle occurred, affecting lawmakers from SPLM-IO and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance.
Raids in April: In recent events reported from South Sudan, there has been a series of government and civic measures aimed at enforcing laws and regulations. The police in Juba have intensified a crackdown on illegal foreign exchange dealers to stabilize the national currency. Meanwhile, efforts to reclaim public spaces included the eviction of families and demolition of makeshift shelters on a graveyard in Juba, along with a similar raid targeting illegal structures on graveyards along Newsite road. The Central Equatoria State government also closed 10 petrol stations in Juba to ensure compliance with quality and location standards. Additionally, a notable disturbance occurred when parents from the Toposa community raided St. Bakhita Girl’s Boarding Primary School, intending to take their daughter for early marriage.
Lethal Violence in May: Recent events in South Sudan include a lethal attack in Kapoeta East County, Eastern Equatoria State, where armed youth from the Greater Pibor Administrative Area killed 32 people, injured 22, and stole 16,000 cattle, along with widespread abductions, predominantly of women and children. In Warrap State, seven people suffocated to death in a container held by the South Sudanese People’s Defence Forces; those detained were held over minor civil offenses. In Jonglei State, inter-communal violence in Akobo County and Duk County resulted in the deaths of at least five people, including children, with several others injured. Additionally, violent clashes occurred in a United Nations camp in Malakal involving internally displaced individuals from the Shilluk and Nuer ethnic groups, leading to multiple fatalities and heightened tensions observed by the United Nations Mission in South Sudan.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Zimbabwe
For Zimbabwe, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in May and June: In Zimbabwe, a conflict at the Mazowe mine involving artisanal miners and the Metallon Corporation has impeded efforts to renew safer, large-scale mining operations. The government and various organizations are addressing health rights and religious practices challenges in response to a measles and mumps outbreak attributed to religious sects’ opposition to medical treatment. Environmental activists are opposing construction on Mutare’s protected wetlands against local authority-backed development projects. There has been a call for the reconvening of public hearings on the Private Voluntary Organizations Amendment Bill after disruptions by political activists. Efforts to combat gender-based violence include training initiatives for community activists focusing on awareness and education. The Centre for Natural Resource Governance petitioned against Chinese mining firms for environmental degradation in Mutare, prompting the Zimbabwean Parliament to form a joint committee to investigate. Activists and opposition members initiated a petition to move the Southern African Development Community summit out of the country in protest of the disputed 2023 elections, gathering over 1,800 signatures. Legislators and organizations in Bulawayo advocated for providing sanitary wear in schools to support young girls’ education. The Netherlands-based WaterWorx organization provided funds for drilling boreholes and fixing leaks in Bulawayo to support sustainable water supplies. The National AIDS Council launched a campaign in Mashonaland Central to combat teen pregnancies and child marriages, leveraging indigenous knowledge and traditional systems.
Corruption in May and June: The Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission (ZACC) seized over US$270 million worth of assets illegally obtained through corruption, addressing substantial annual financial losses. Investigations include the diversion of funds by police commanders in the Chiadzwa diamond fields, with allegations of misappropriated allowances. High-profile legal battles include the release of seized properties, such as Justice Mayor Wadyajena’s Lamborghini and trucks in relation to a US$5 million fraud case. Employees at a hotel in Mutare were arrested for embezzling over $500,000, and a Chinese national is charged with smuggling and evading customs duties on dangerous chemicals. Businessmen and officials involved in recent corruption scandals include Wicknell Chivayo, Mike Chimombe, and Moses Mpofu, who are at the center of a controversy involving over US$100 million in government contracts with the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). Chimombe and Mpofu were also arrested for fraudulently acquiring over US$7 million from a government project. The former chairperson of the National Social Security Authority faced corruption charges that were later dismissed by the Constitutional Court, necessitating a fresh hearing. Businessman Francesco Marconati was cleared of fraud charges by the High Court due to procedural errors. Local councillor Patson Chipunza is charged with fraud for illegal land sales.
Legal Actions in May and June: In Zimbabwe, a High Court Judge ordered the release of seized property belonging to former legislator Justice Mayor Wadyajena, which was taken in connection with a fraud and money laundering investigation. Meanwhile, the bail appeal of Neville Mutsvangwa, son of a minister, concerning allegations of illegal foreign currency dealings and possession of unlicensed telecommunications equipment, encountered a delay when a judge recused herself. Furthermore, a prominent trade union leader was convicted and fined for obstructing justice over a social media post demanding the release of a colleague. Additionally, the president constituted a Commission of Inquiry to investigate alleged financial and governance irregularities within the Harare City Council since 2017. Lastly, an exiled Zimbabwean businessman engaged South African courts regarding political and legal issues stemming from a law that affected his business interests, though this last event also involves South African political dynamics. In Zimbabwe, opposition politician Nelson Chamisa criticized President Emmerson Mnangagwa over alleged ties with businessman Wicknell Chivayo, expressing concerns over corruption and a questionable US$40 million tender deal with the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). The Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission (ZACC) has launched investigations into money laundering and abuse of office involving businessmen Wicknell Chivayo, Mike Chimombe, and Moses Mpofu, related to contracts with the ZEC and the Presidential Goat Scheme, worth over US$100 million. Former vice president Phelekezela Mphoko lost a Supreme Court appeal regarding his discharge in a case of power abuse, while the Constitutional Court demanded a retrial of a case against former National Social Security Authority chairperson, Robin Vela, previously linked to corruption. Additionally, 79 members of the Citizens Coalition for Change, including faction leader Jameson Timba, were arrested and remain in custody for participating in an unsanctioned gathering on the Day of the African Child.
Legal Changes in May: The cabinet has introduced a bill to abolish the death penalty for all crimes, subject to parliamentary approval. The principles of the Media Practitioners’ Bill have been approved to foster the independence and co-regulation of media practitioners. Economic adjustments include the standardization of Intermediated Money Transfer Tax rates across various currencies and the abolition of a 10% premium retailers could charge over official exchange rates. A new law has been introduced to restrict foreign exchange trading to authorized dealers only.
Security Mobilization in June: In Zimbabwe, the police initiated an operation named “No to Mushikashika and Touts,” resulting in the arrest of 22,000 individuals to address disorder in city centers by targeting unlicensed and reckless drivers. A special police unit was established to counter the theft and vandalism of vital public infrastructure, impacting services such as the National Railways of Zimbabwe and Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company. The Department of Customs and Excise has started using drones to combat smuggling and enhance border security, improving surveillance and increasing the interception of illegal goods. The Zimbabwe National Parks and Wildlife Management Authority has made progress in anti-poaching efforts by recovering a significant amount of ivory and arresting thousands since 2019. Following a severe road accident, there has been a call for the reintroduction of police highway patrols on the Harare-Mutare Highway to improve road safety.
Protests in May: Zanu PF supporters disrupted public hearings in Harare and Gweru regarding the divisive Private Voluntary Organisations (PVO) Amendment Bill, which is supported by the government but viewed skeptically by opposition and civil society. United Methodist Church members in Harare protested a decision made by their General Conference in the United States to allow gay unions within the denomination. Meanwhile, space barons, also aligned with Zanu PF, protested against the Bulawayo City Council and Mayor after being evicted from vending bays they had illegally controlled on Fifth Avenue. Additionally, informal traders in Harare protested against strict municipal laws that restrict vending in the capital’s central business district, seeking a reversal to allow for better business opportunities.
Purge/Replace in May: Justice Minister Ziyambi Ziyambi was ordered to leave the National Assembly after a dispute with Speaker of Parliament Jacob Mudenda. President Mnangagwa reassigned key Zanu PF Politburo members, including roles for Jacob Mudenda and Patrick Chinamasa, and promoted 86 senior officers in the Zimbabwe Republic Police, with an impending reshuffle. Additionally, a Zanu PF youth leader was appointed as acting CEO of the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, and Mines and Mining Development Minister Winston Chitando, along with his deputy Polite Kambamura, were warned about securing mineral backing for the ZiG currency.
Raids in May: In Zimbabwe, a government decision led to the shutdown of a nursing school in Chikomba district, impacting over 150 students. The closure was due to internal factional fights within the Zanu PF party and overcrowding issues that failed to meet the Nursing Council of Zimbabwe’s training standards. Additionally, a police operation in Masvingo resulted in the arrest of an individual for unlawful cultivation of a dagga plant, with the consequence of either a US$200 fine or a 40-day prison sentence.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.