Longevity After Election Age

Author

Nicholas Oliver Silveira Powell

Characteristic

Beta

95% CI

1
treatment

    treatmentwin 8.3 3.0, 14
party

    partyRepublican 3.9 1.2, 6.7
    partyThirdparty -9.5 -24, 5.8
win_margin -1.4 -2.4, -0.39
1

CI = Credible Interval

 
                 Estimate Est.Error       Q2.5      Q97.5
Intercept       73.563269 1.7479213  70.123343 76.9503592
treatmentwin     8.324627 2.7545644   3.008084 13.5827425
partyRepublican  3.934041 1.4256368   1.165490  6.7124847
partyThirdparty -9.463463 7.8628469 -24.458073  5.8141005
win_margin      -1.398766 0.5041201  -2.378415 -0.3943746

\[y_{i} = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} treatment_i + \beta_{2}win\_margin_i + \beta_{3}party_i + death\_age_{i} + \epsilon_{i} \]

Using data from US governors, we found that winning an election makes you more likely to live longer than if you lost. Data was pulled into a gaussian data model in order to analyze it and a model was constructed. Then a plot was made using this data model to show the expected ages of candidates depending on whether they won or lost. Winners are consistently living longer than losers however, it is difficult to prove a causal relationship without control over the situation.