Election

Author

Tanish Thaker

\[death\_age = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} treatment_i + \beta_{2}win\_margin_i + \beta_{4}repub_i + \ beta_{5}thirdparty_i + \epsilon_{i}\]

Using data about US governor candidates from the years 1945 - 2012, we seek to find the relationship between the longevity of Preceptor David Kane and whether or not he wins the Mayoral Election in Newton, MA. Modern medicine has increased the overall lifespan of all candidates regardless of if they won or lost. We modeled age of death as a sum of election result (won/lost), age during election, political party and the win margin. We expect Preceptor to live an extra 8 years (plus/minus 6 years) if he were to win the Mayorial election.

Characteristic

Beta

95% CI

1
treatment

    treatmentwin 8.3 3.1, 14
party

    partyRepublican 4.0 1.2, 6.8
    partyThirdparty -9.4 -26, 6.2
win_margin -1.4 -2.4, -0.42
1

CI = Credible Interval

 

                 Estimate Est.Error       Q2.5      Q97.5
Intercept       73.531274 1.7297368  70.118630 76.8451706
treatmentwin     8.322798 2.6905117   3.102131 13.6064905
partyRepublican  3.996349 1.4217789   1.215434  6.7886781
partyThirdparty -9.439447 8.1607863 -25.766698  6.2355757
win_margin      -1.391886 0.4981467  -2.381394 -0.4232346