Model Run Growth and Change
1 Overview
1.0.1 Households
Community designation | Census 2010-2020 | BAU | UrbanSim Draft Preliminary Forecasts (run_203: prelim run + prelim developments & updated housing capacities) | UrbanSim Draft Preliminary Forecasts (run_211: new travel skims, updated base data, updated housing capacities, updated housing mix finalized developments,) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Agricultural | 0.25% (302 hh) | 1.39% (4,580 hh) | 2.16% (6,999 hh) | 0.8% (2,584 hh) |
Diversified Rural | 0.78% (945 hh) | 3.42% (11,254 hh) | 3.05% (9,883 hh) | 1.92% (6,225 hh) |
Emerging Suburban Edge | 15.04% (18,318 hh) | 11.1% (36,466 hh) | 15.58% (50,553 hh) | 18.31% (59,407 hh) |
Non-Council Area | 0.27% (326 hh) | 0.13% (439 hh) | 0.27% (864 hh) | 0.33% (1,086 hh) |
Rural Center | 1.92% (2,334 hh) | 2.38% (7,819 hh) | 2.77% (8,991 hh) | 3.31% (10,732 hh) |
Rural Residential | 0.81% (991 hh) | 4.06% (13,330 hh) | 3.03% (9,822 hh) | 1.78% (5,784 hh) |
Suburban | 18.23% (22,197 hh) | 21.14% (69,469 hh) | 26.09% (84,642 hh) | 27.05% (87,746 hh) |
Suburban Edge | 21.71% (26,432 hh) | 16.88% (55,477 hh) | 16.28% (52,819 hh) | 15.71% (50,975 hh) |
Urban | 8.46% (10,297 hh) | 12.48% (41,020 hh) | 5.39% (17,472 hh) | 5.32% (17,272 hh) |
Urban Center | 32.55% (39,635 hh) | 27.02% (88,788 hh) | 25.39% (82,371 hh) | 25.46% (82,605 hh) |
Total | 100% (121,777 hh) | 100% (328,642 hh) | 100% (324,416 hh) | 100% (324,416 hh) |
1.0.2 Employment
Community designation | DEED 2010-2019 | BAU | UrbanSim Draft Preliminary Forecasts (run_203: prelim run + prelim developments & updated housing capacities) | UrbanSim Draft Preliminary Forecasts (run_211: new travel skims, updated base data, updated housing capacities, updated housing mix finalized developments,) | Census 2010-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Agricultural | 0.48% (1,136 jobs) | 0.46% (2,348 jobs) | 0.59% (3,054 jobs) | ||
Diversified Rural | 2.03% (4,817 jobs) | 1.81% (9,309 jobs) | 1.74% (8,963 jobs) | ||
Emerging Suburban Edge | 9.86% (23,348 jobs) | 14.19% (72,975 jobs) | 14.22% (73,401 jobs) | ||
Non-Council Area | 0.21% (493 jobs) | 0.15% (762 jobs) | 0.31% (1,600 jobs) | ||
Rural Center | 0.45% (1,059 jobs) | 1.85% (9,502 jobs) | 1.95% (10,086 jobs) | ||
Rural Residential | 0.79% (1,877 jobs) | 1.48% (7,637 jobs) | 1.34% (6,933 jobs) | ||
Suburban | 25.91% (61,339 jobs) | 27.6% (141,977 jobs) | 27.19% (140,332 jobs) | ||
Suburban Edge | 19.48% (46,115 jobs) | 16.62% (85,504 jobs) | 16.89% (87,174 jobs) | ||
Urban | 8.99% (21,283 jobs) | 11.77% (60,523 jobs) | 10.29% (53,099 jobs) | ||
Urban Center | 31.79% (75,270 jobs) | 24.07% (123,792 jobs) | 25.46% (131,385 jobs) | ||
Total | 100% (328,642 jobs) | 100% (324,416 jobs) | 100% (324,416 jobs) | 100% (121,777 jobs) |
1.0.3 Land use
NOTE: land use calculations are NOT a core output of the land use model. Rather, they are roughly estimated using back-of-the-envelope calculations to translate changes in people and jobs into changes in land use by leveraging: 1) minimal on-the-ground data about non residential floor area ratios and density of new residential developments, and 2) a simplistic land consumption framework which primarily consumes agricultural and developed land uses in equal proportions.
2 Geographic segmentation of results
UrbanSim produces results at the census block level. It is preferable to “roll-up” blocks into larger geographic summaries (based on best practices and the results from our model validation phase). We have produced a set of figures that looks at a single variable (total population) across various ways of “rolling up” blocks. These examples are not an exhaustive list of ways that blocks can be rolled up. This process can be repeated for any output variable (like total jobs or the number of multifamily housing units for instance).
Rather than show example results below, instead we have shown maps indicating the geographies in which blocks results can be aggregated up to. In all cases, if blocks fell into multiple geographies, the intersecting geography with the largest overlap was used as the block assignment.
We provide aggregated results to these different geographic levels as different tabs within the .xlsx file.
2.1 MUSA
Source: Metropolitan Urban Service Areas (MUSA) Composite, MN Geospatial Commons.
2.1.1 MUSA Tables
2.2 City, township, unorganized territory (CTU)
Source: Counties and Cities & Townships, Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN Geospatial Commons.
