N Parameters
Using a dataset of the primary elections in 2006 in Michigan from Gerber, Green, and Larimer (2008), we seek to find the causal effect of postcards on voting in the 2026 Texas election. If certain groups of people are less likely to respond to postcards, for example they might not check their mail regularly, the sample of voters who actually received and potentially read the postcards might not be representative of the overall voting population. In this model, age is positively related to voter turnout, indicating that as age increases, so does the likelihood of voting.
\[ y_{i} = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} age\_z + \beta_{2}male_i + \beta_{3}civic\_duty_i + \\ \beta_{4}hawthorne_i + \beta_{5}self_i + \beta_{6}neighbors_i + \\ \beta_{7}Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{8}Always\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{9}civic\_duty_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{10}hawthorne_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{11}self_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{11}neighbors_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{12}civic\_duty_i Always\ vote_i + \beta_{13}hawthorne_i Always\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{14}self_i Always\ vote_i + \beta_{15}neighbors_i Always\ vote_i + \epsilon_{i} \]
Warning in tidy.brmsfit(x, ..., effects = "fixed"): some parameter names
contain underscores: term naming may be unreliable!Characteristic |
Beta |
95% CI 1 |
|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 0.155 | 0.137, 0.174 |
| age_z | 0.036 | 0.031, 0.042 |
| sex | ||
| sexMale | 0.004 | -0.005, 0.014 |
| treatment | ||
| No Postcard | — | — |
| treatmentCivicDuty | 0.016 | -0.027, 0.057 |
| Hawthorne | 0.004 | -0.037, 0.043 |
| Self | -0.007 | -0.049, 0.035 |
| Neighbors | 0.084 | 0.041, 0.126 |
| voter_class | ||
| Rarely Vote | — | — |
| voter_classSometimesVote | 0.115 | 0.095, 0.135 |
| voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.298 | 0.275, 0.321 |
| treatment * voter_class | ||
| treatmentCivicDuty * voter_classSometimesVote | -0.005 | -0.051, 0.043 |
| Hawthorne * voter_classSometimesVote | 0.010 | -0.033, 0.054 |
| Self * voter_classSometimesVote | 0.059 | 0.012, 0.106 |
| Neighbors * voter_classSometimesVote | -0.009 | -0.057, 0.038 |
| treatmentCivicDuty * voter_classAlwaysVote | -0.009 | -0.061, 0.045 |
| Hawthorne * voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.034 | -0.017, 0.086 |
| Self * voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.047 | -0.007, 0.100 |
| Neighbors * voter_classAlwaysVote | -0.002 | -0.056, 0.050 |
| 1
CI = Credible Interval |
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