Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Kosovo, Angola, Mauritania, Morocco, Tanzania, Uganda, Ukraine, Timor Leste.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Kosovo

For Kosovo, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in May: In Kosovo, women’s rights activists commemorated International Menstrual Hygiene Day by distributing free period products and advocating for the reduction of the tax on these products, supported by a petition with 7,500 signatures. The NGO Coalition for Children’s Protection (KOMF) staged a symbolic action in front of the Government building to press for better financing of social services for child protection in 2024. Additionally, over 200 volunteers organized a blood donation drive in the village of Strellc of Decani as a homage to the nation’s martyrs, showcasing community unity and respect for those who contributed to the nation’s liberation. Activist Igballe Huduti criticized the use of the eagle symbol on a mosque minaret, a response to the politicization of religious symbols. Lastly, Child Rights Activist Samantha Kobellinj spoke out against child sexual abuse highlighted in a viral TikTok video, calling for strict legal actions to protect children.

• Censorship in April: Serbian authorities have blocked over 300 Kosovo travelers and buses at the borders with Croatia and Hungary, as a form of retaliation related to Kosovo’s membership vote at the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly. This blockade has drawn condemnation from various officials and organizations, including the EU. Additionally, Serbian police have banned Serbian citizens who are part of the Kosovo Security Force from crossing the border into Serbia, indicating ongoing tensions and measures perceived as retaliatory against Kosovo’s recent political advances in Europe.

• Corruption in April and May: In Kosovo, a large-scale embezzlement scheme involving the signing of 889 secret contracts worth approximately 240 million euros by current government ministers was exposed in a U.S. State Department report. The Special Prosecutor arrested the former mayor of Himara, seizing a surface area involved in a 5080m² land corruption scandal. Furthermore, a Kosovo meat company was involved in a fraud, allegedly importing meat from Brazil and selling it as a Kosovo product, leading to disciplinary actions against a state inspector for forgery. Additionally, the Office for Community Affairs diverted grants meant for minority communities to unrelated NGOs, causing outcry and allegations of misusing public funds. Senior public officials, including the Health Minister and the Director of Kosovo Police, have been scrutinized for declaring substantial assets worth hundreds of thousands of euros, raising concerns about the origins of their wealth. The Ministry of Finance came under scrutiny for the abuse of public funds in contracts for special services, an issue highlighted by former Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti, who pointed to this misuse as a factor in the lack of economic progress despite the expenditure of 11 billion euros. The Kosovo Police Inspectorate (IPK) has initiated investigations into nepotism and irregularities in the police promotion process. Additionally, former Prime Minister Sali Berisha and his son-in-law are facing corruption charges tied to the privatisation of the former Partizani Club. Moreover, the Special Prosecution is investigating secret tenders under Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s government for large-scale corruption in single-source tenders.

• Legal Actions in April and May: The trial against former Kosovo Liberation Army leaders, including the ex-President, at The Hague on charges of war crimes continues, with many sessions held behind closed doors. In Pristina, the Constitutional Court sentenced six individuals to a combined total of 62 years in prison for the rape of a minor in 2022. Additionally, the Special Prosecutor’s Office in Kosovo is seeking a 28-year sentence for a former member of the Kosovo Liberation Army on charges of crimes against humanity. These legal proceedings indicate ongoing efforts within and related to Kosovo to address wartime and serious crimes. The trial against former Kosovo Liberation Army leaders, including Hashim Thaci, Kadri Veseli, Rexhep Selimi, and Jakup Krasniqi, progresses in Kosovo’s Specialized Chambers in The Hague, addressing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during and after the Kosovo war.

• Legal Changes in May: In recent events for Kosovo, the draft for the Association of Serb-run municipalities was prepared with the intent to provide territorial and political autonomy for Serbs, a step influenced by the EU’s conditions for Kosovo’s Council of Europe membership application. Additionally, Kosovo has enacted laws and amendments to regulate drug prices, transfer the competence of privatizing state property to the Ministry of Economy, modernize its Customs Code, and demand the adoption of a new statute for the University of Pristina to improve higher education and administrative efficiency.

• Purge/Replace in May: The Kosovo Judiciary Council suspended Judge Agim Kuci for releasing an accused individual involved in a significant assassination without proper consultation. Additionally, the Kosovo Police Inspectorate recommended the suspension of three police officers for misconduct related to interactions with known criminals.

• Raids in May: The police enforced the country’s euro-only cash transfer policy by closing six branches of Serbia’s Post Savings Bank and the Treasury Department in four Serb-majority municipalities. Customs officials and special units, including Nardroga and K9, were also involved in separate raids that uncovered a facility for producing forged municipal documents, seized narcotics and illegal weapons, and found unauthorized phones within a high security prison. Another distinct operation in response to an attempted suicide case in Lupc, Podujevo, led to the discovery and confiscation of ammunition and vehicles.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Angola

For Angola, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Legal Changes in June: The National Assembly of Angola approved several legislative changes, including an amendment to the passport law, extending diplomatic passport privileges to retired judges and prosecutors-general. Additionally, a law imposing severe penalties for vandalism of public goods and services was passed, which could result in up to 25 years of imprisonment. The assembly also unanimously approved an amendment to the Anti-Doping Act in Sport, establishing an independent Anti-Doping Disciplinary Council to meet international standards and prevent sanctions. Furthermore, Angola’s accession to the Protocol on the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights was approved, promoting human rights through the establishment of an African court.

• Security Mobilization in April: In Angola, the General Command of the Angolan National Police initiated a considerable effort to bolster border security through the integration of advanced surveillance technologies such as video monitoring systems, sensors, and radars. Meanwhile, in the Urban District of the University City, municipality of Talatona, security forces were mobilized to address issues arising from accusations of invading peasant lands, which raised concerns over potential civil rights violations and conflicts over land use. Furthermore, the Front for the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave - Cabindese Armed Forces (FLEC-FAC), issued a 30-day ultimatum to the Angolan Government demanding troop withdrawal from Cabinda. Additionally, the Civil Protection and Fire Department initiated “Operation Maré Baixa” to prevent drownings by restricting access to the dangerous rapids of Kwanza. Lastly, security investigations were conducted in Cuito Cuanavale, Cânto Cubango, following an attack on a caravan of the Parliamentary Group of UNITA.

• Raids in May: In Angola, operations led by both the Luanda Municipal Command and the National Police resulted in the closure of a significant number of weighing houses across multiple districts in Luanda, including Ingombota, Sambizanga, Maianga, Rangel, and Samba. These closures, totaling 215 out of 230 establishments, were executed to ensure compliance with local regulations for property registration, classification, and provincial laws. Additionally, the provincial government of Luanda enforced new regulations targeting multiple churches and sects, leading to their shutdown after religious leaders failed to comply with mandates aimed at protecting public property and ensuring public safety.

• Non-lethal Violence in May: In recent events in Angola, a police officer’s gunfire during a chase in Luanda’s Sambizanga district tragically ended the life of a six-year-old girl, leading to public uproar and attempts to protest at the local police station. Furthermore, an assassination attempt was made on a deputy for the Provincial Circle of Malanje, Carlos Xavier Luís Lucas, by an individual on a motorcycle, though the shots fired did not hit their intended target. Additionally, an attempt to vandalize a high-voltage cable in Talatona resulted in second-degree burns to the perpetrator, Brito Samuel, and a temporary power outage affecting over 10,000 customers. Reports also emerged of child abuse in Viana and Cazenga, with minors experiencing physical aggression requiring medical treatment. Lastly, a significant number of gender-based violence incidents were documented, including a record 15,000 cases of sexual abuse against minors reported in 2020.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Mauritania

For Mauritania, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in June: The High Authority for Press and Visual Audio mandated a journalist from the Arab Sky News channel to apologize and correct errors made in reporting about presidential candidates. Additionally, authorities denied a candidate permission to hold a campaign event at a specified venue and demanded the cessation of all electoral propaganda activities shortly before voting, with legal consequences for non-compliance. Campaign activities of two candidates were notably obstructed, with one experiencing financial blocking that led to the cancellation of planned city visits, and another being banned from organizing a political festival, thereby affecting their ability to campaign and engage with the public.

• Defamation Cases in May: The Supreme Court’s Administrative Chamber in Mauritania rejected an appeal filed by the defense of Mohamed Ould Geddh, who is the President of Transparency Worldwide and a former Senator, in a defamation case. This case reached significant legal scrutiny at the highest judicial level.

• Security Mobilization in June: In Mauritania, security authorities implemented extensive measures during the presidential elections by deploying mobile police, guard, and gendarmerie units throughout Nouakchott and shutting down major roads near military and security headquarters. The country conducted military and security exercises, including the Asbar 2024 maneuvers, which involved 1,500 personnel in cities such as Nouakchott and Nouadhibo, and artillery and rocket launcher training in the Tawilla area. To ensure the integrity of the electoral process, 600 observers were deployed across all provinces by the Mauritanian Observatory for Electoral Observation. Measures were taken to prevent unrest by collecting used tires from public spaces before and after the election results were announced.

• Protests in May: Resident doctors in Mauritania launched a strike, withdrawing from all hospital services to protest conditions, including repression and neglect of their rights by the Ministry of Health. Workers, including thousands in Nouakchott, marched to address issues such as working conditions, pricing, and salaries, coinciding with the International Day of Labour. Parliamentary opponents held a protest in Freedom Square to demand governmental attention and justice, aligning their demonstration with a government meeting. Primary school teachers in Far-East Mauritania City halted teaching to protest against cuts in their distance allowance, disrupting local educational services. In Nouadhibo, housewives and industrial fishing sailors protested to demand better working conditions and the resumption of negotiations for a collective agreement.

• Raids in April and June: In Mauritania, officers forcibly dispersed resident doctors who had organized a stand in front of the Presidential Palace, demanding the enforcement of their agreement with the Ministry of Health. Police entered the headquarters of the Democratic Forces Constellation Party during a leadership rally, disrupting a press conference. A stand organized by the Committee for the President of the Comprehensive Transparency Organization in front of the Civil Prison was also forcibly dispersed. The police shut down the headquarters of the Front for Democratic Change party, leading to the arrest of several of its members. Police prevented presidential candidate Professor Utuma Somare and his supporters from holding their final campaign festival by deploying riot police units around the staged area.

• Non-lethal Violence in April: In Mauritania, there were reports of elements of the Russian Wagner group, in coordination with the Malian army, entering Mauritanian villages which led to the arrest and interrogation of four individuals and damage to several houses, alongside an incident where three young civilians on motorcycles were pursued. Additionally, a Mauritanian national police officer assaulted a news dispatcher who was covering a protest and confiscated their broadcasting equipment. The Mauritanian Minister of Petroleum, Minerals, and Energy announced that the army would respond to any attempts by the Wagner group to cross the border. Furthermore, the Mauritanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, labeling it a violation of Syrian sovereignty.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mauritania.

Morocco

For Morocco, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Corruption in May and June: In Morocco, the Ministry of Health and Social Protection’s COVID-19 transaction file, involving over 1 billion dirhams, is under examination for possible financial corruption and misuse of public funds. The General Inspectorate of Land Administration discovered corruption in waste collection contracts, with irregularities amounting to over 5 million dirhams monthly. At the Rabat Court of First Instance, 27 gendarmerie officers and senior security officials are involved in a money laundering investigation. A publicly funded milk production project, valued at 60 million dirhams, is being scrutinized for suspected financial corruption. The Royal Gendarmerie and Customs dismantled a network involved in the smuggling and money laundering of used clothing. Employees of a private company in the Port of Tangier were sentenced for their roles in bribery and international drug smuggling, with a bribe amounting to 10 million dirhams. Other events include the embezzlement of over 1.5 billion dirhams by a company manager, investigations into banking institutions for integrating drug-trafficking revenues, and the conviction of an individual for embezzling 87 million dirhams from a bank.

• Defamation Cases in April: An official associated with the Authority and the Hall was sentenced to a year in prison and fined 8,000 dirhams for defamation against elected officials, politicians, and agents of authority, with additional compensation required for the head of a committee of the Sidi al-Tibi group. Similarly, during the first trimester, various defamation cases linked to social media were appealed in the newly established court of first instance, leading to several individuals facing penalties, including imprisonment and financial compensation for the victims.

• Legal Actions in April and June: In Morocco, two bank executives were sentenced by the Financial Crimes Trial Chamber for embezzlement, leading to significant losses for various agencies. Several individuals were convicted for organizing clandestine immigration that resulted in death. A banker received a seven-year prison sentence from the Rabat Court of Appeal for misappropriating client funds and hacking into banking systems. The Appeals Chamber adjourned the trial judgment against Mohamed Reza Al-Toujni following a complaint by the Minister of Justice. The Fez Court of Appeal sentenced 30 defendants for their involvement in a newborn trafficking network. Investigations into fraud and public money manipulation targeted senior officials across major cities. Notable figures, including the mayor and Secretary of the Council of Fez and a former Minister of Public Service, faced legal consequences for corruption. Employees at the Port of Tangier were sentenced for participating in an international drug smuggling network.

• Legal Changes in June: Bill No. 43. 22 on Alternative Sentences was passed to introduce alternative penalties, aiming to reduce prison overcrowding. Law 10-20 has established a framework for the regulation of the arms sector, including the creation of industrial defence zones. The Finance Act 2024 has been introduced, incorporating reforms such as a self-liquidation scheme for VAT, changes to procedures for the disposal of immovable property, and improvements in the management of local taxes. Furthermore, reforms of the Regional Investment Centres (RICs) have been announced to stimulate economic growth by decentralizing investment agreements and expediting case processing. Additionally, Bill No. 10. 23 was approved to improve the organization and management of prisons, targeting better conditions and governance within the system.

• Purge/Replace in May: In Morocco, the Ministry of National Education took action against 202 teachers suspended after striking, affecting both the education sector and teacher-labor relations. Additionally, the Administrative Court of Appeal of Marrakech removed the Chairman of the Orer Community and his two deputies due to reconstruction violations and irregularities. Meanwhile, legal measures were taken against local government officials, including the dismissal of the President of the Mers al-Sultan District Council and actions regarding the disqualification of members from the First Chamber of the House of Representatives. Furthermore, the Regional Commissions imposed corrective measures on suspended officials, enforcing legal protocols in administrative conduct.

• Raids in May: The Royal Gendarmerie of the Judicial Centre conducted raids on three Spa massage shops in the economic capital and its suburbs, dismantling networks involved in prostitution, homosexuality, and human trafficking. The Royal Navy intercepted five boats on the Moroccan-Mauritanian border, preventing an attempt to smuggle large quantities of drugs. Another raid in the Tiggert community exposed the exploitation of women for fraudulent registration in the social register. Surveillance authorities carried out raids on unlicensed food sale spaces and restaurants, confiscating 120 tons of corrupted substances over two months. These actions addressed various illegal activities, including human and drug trafficking, as well as health and safety violations.

• Non-lethal Violence in April: In Morocco, a violent altercation over inheritance near Mohammed V regional hospital in Zero resulted in three family members sustaining injuries, two of whom were in critical condition. An armed group at the Thailand-Myanmar border abducted dozens of Moroccans, subjecting them to severe torture and death threats. The National Judicial Police Brigade’s attempt to arrest a Royal Gendarmerie head for bribery failed. During a security intervention in the park district, a police officer shot a 55-year-old offender in the lower extremities after the offender attacked passers-by and police personnel. Additionally, a gang of five masked individuals robbed a jewelry store in the Ma’arif area, stealing items worth 500 million dirhams and prompting increased security measures in the region.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Tanzania

For Tanzania, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in June: The Union of Youth Chama Cha Mapinduzi (UVCCM) in Tanzania has asked the government to block Twitter, now known as X, claiming the platform’s content contradicts Tanzanian traditions and customs. The request was made by UVCCM Chairman Mohamed Kawaida.

• Defamation Cases in April: In Tanzania, journalist Erick Kabendera faced charges of economic sabotage following his accusation against Vodacom for complicity in his abduction by police.

• Disaster in April and May: In Tanzania, heavy El Niño rains accompanied by floods, strong winds, and landslides have affected more than 51,000 households, impacted 200,000 individuals, resulted in 155 deaths, and injured over 236 people. In the Rufiji and Kibiti districts of the Coast Region, ongoing rainfall displaced over 88,000 individuals, requiring urgent access to food, shelter, and healthcare. Heavy flooding in Arusha and Mbeya caused significant damage to homes, roads, and public infrastructure. In the Arusha region, a school bus was swept away by floodwaters, leading to the death of eight children, with several others injured and missing. Cyclone Hidaya struck with torrential rains and strong winds, causing the deaths of five individuals, injuring seven, and affecting over 18,000 people through flooding and infrastructure damage. Ongoing heavy rains related to the El Niño weather phenomenon have resulted in widespread flooding and landslides, contributing to the deaths of at least 666 people, displacing hundreds of thousands, and damaging homes and infrastructure. An explosion at the Mtibwa Sugar Factory in Morogoro led to the deaths of 11 specialists and critically injured two, prompting the factory’s temporary closure. In Ifakara, Morogoro region, flooding caused by the overflow of the Lumemo River left more than 400 people homeless. The government and various organizations are providing aid and working on infrastructure restoration in response to these incidents.

• Legal Changes in April and June: The President has enacted four Bills focused on reforming the electoral and political landscape, including laws on the National Electoral Commission, elections, political party affairs, and miscellaneous amendments. The Tanzanian government has declared that by April 2024, the Universal Health Insurance Act 2023 will be implemented to ensure universal health coverage for all citizens. The establishment of the Personal Data Protection Commission aims to safeguard personal data privacy. The High Court in Zanzibar ruled a portion of the Liquor Control Act unconstitutional, affecting alcohol regulation within the country. The judiciary has updated the Court of Appeal Rules to enhance the efficiency and modernization of the justice system. The Tanzanian Parliament endorsed the Finance Bill, 2024, which includes amendments to various tax and revenue collection laws for the 2024/2025 fiscal year. A proposal to amend the Road and Fuels Tolls Act to impose a charge on Compressed Natural Gas was withdrawn due to concerns raised by lawmakers. The government proposed amendments to introduce the Diaspora Tanzanite card for Tanzanians living abroad, empower the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) to ensure a stable sugar supply in the domestic market, and establish a 10 percent excise duty on betting, gaming, and national lottery stakes to fund the Universal Health Insurance Fund.

• Security Mobilization in May: The Tanzanian government announced plans to install 6,500 cameras in key economic areas across four main cities to enhance public safety and security. Following the expiration of the SADC mission, the Tanzania People’s Defence Force (TPDF) will continue its military presence in Mozambique until July 15, 2024. The Minister for Lands initiated an intensive operation nationwide to address fraud in the land sector. Additionally, measures to combat drug trafficking have been reinforced, with calls for increased police patrols at ports along the Indian Ocean. The Tanzania Roads Agency (Tanroads) has initiated a project in the Lindi region to restore road communication disrupted by natural disasters.

• Protests in June: Traders in Dar es Salaam and other regions of Tanzania organized an indefinite strike, resulting in the closure of shops. This action aimed to pressure the government into addressing business challenges, with the traders expressing particular discontent with the manner in which the Revenue Authority enforced tax regulations.

• Lethal Violence in April: In Tanzania, a teacher and a secondary school student were killed by blunt objects to their heads at their home in Kiwanja Village, Chunya District, Mbeya region. In a separate incident in Dar es Sala Clim, Elizabeth Ngaza, a resident, was found dead and unclothed after reportedly being threatened by her boyfriend days prior due to jealousy. Additionally, mortar fire in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo killed three Tanzanian soldiers who were part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) force, with another three soldiers injured; these soldiers were assisting government troops against M23 rebels.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Uganda

For Uganda, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in April and June: Twenty-two petitioners, including a prominent gay rights activist, appealed to the Supreme Court following a Constitutional Court decision that largely upheld the Anti-Homosexuality Act, 2023. WePlanet Africa organized a city clean-up and tree-planting exercise in Kampala to combat plastic pollution and advocate for conservation. The Batwa community in the Kisoro and Kanungu districts is seeking recognition and inclusion to access government programs and services. A surge in sexual gender-based violence (SGBV) cases has been reported in Kyenjojo District, with activists highlighting the targeting of adolescents by HIV-positive individuals, increasing the HIV/AIDS infection rate among the youth. The National Economic Empowerment Dialogue (NEED) Party is campaigning against proposed taxes on essential goods due to concerns over potential price increases. The National Environmental Management Authority faced backlash following demolitions in the Lubigi Wetlands, leading to mass evictions. Environmental activists, including those from the Save Bugoma Forest Campaign and Water and Environment Media Network, have called for the protection and restoration of forests. Various civil society organizations criticized the government for the hurried approval of the 2024/2025 budget, citing inadequate discussion of crucial priorities. An anti-corruption campaign named “Text the Theft” was launched to expose corruption and advocate for public accountability. The Alliance of Women Advocating for Change emphasized the insufficient support and justice for sex workers from law enforcement agencies.

• Corruption in May and June: State House’s financial records for the last fiscal year disclosed that Shs913 billion was spent, with inquiries directed at officials over unutilized warrants exceeding Shs100 billion. The legality of a Shs1.7 billion service award shared by four MPs has been questioned by the President. Reports have surfaced of extortion by Ugandan officials at border points, targeting traders exporting goods to DR Congo. A scandal involving the diversion of iron sheets intended for vulnerable communities has implicated key government officials, leading to international sanctions. A city commercial officer in Masaka was arrested for embezzling funds from a government program, following complaints of soliciting bribes from beneficiaries. President Museveni exposed evidence against high-ranking officials in the Ministry of Finance and Parliament for embezzling public funds. Three Members of Parliament were arrested and remanded on charges related to the diversion of Shs3.4 billion meant for the Buyaka Growers Cooperative Society. The former Executive Director of Mulago National Referral Hospital and seven others were charged with abusing office and causing financial losses exceeding Shs14 billion. More than twelve officials from the Uganda Investment Authority were implicated in misusing Shs545 million from a loan-funded project. An investigation in Amolatar District uncovered the embezzlement of Shs300 million meant for the Parish Development Model by Sacco leaders and government officers, leading to arrests and fund recovery efforts.

• Disaster in May: In Uganda, heavy rains in the Kasese and Bunyangabu districts triggered mudslides, claiming 17 lives and displacing hundreds, with significant infrastructural damage. Concurrently, rising water levels in Lake Victoria caused extensive flooding across several districts, displacing about 10,000 people and necessitating governmental intervention. The country also faces a public health crisis, with an alarming rate of chronic malnutrition among infants in Kamwenge District and a surge in cholera cases at Kasensero landing site in Kyotera District, leading to hospitalizations and at least one death. Additionally, floods in multiple districts, including Masama, have displaced over 5,000 individuals.

• Legal Actions in June: In Uganda, the Anti-Corruption Court committed Members of Parliament Yusuf Mutembuli, Cissy Namujju, and Paul Akamba to the High Court on corruption charges related to significant budget reallocations, following their remand to Luzira Prison and subsequent bail hearings. Dr. Byarugaba Baterana, former Executive Director of Mulago National Referral Hospital, along with seven others, was granted cash bail by the Anti-Corruption Court on charges of abuse of office and causing financial loss to the government. The Criminal Investigations Directorate is questioning Patrick Isiagi, Chairperson of the Budget Committee of Parliament, regarding an alleged reallocation of Shs750 billion in the 2024–2025 budget.

• Legal Changes in April: In Uganda, the Constitutional Court upheld the Anti-Homosexuality Act, 2023, with some sections removed for violating rights. The government introduced new taxes on various items and transactions to support its budget for the fiscal year 2024/25. Legislative changes included transferring the authority to conduct civil marriages from the Uganda Registration Services Bureau to the National Identification and Registration Authority and dissolving the National Children’s Authority, with its functions moving to the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development. The Bank of Uganda issued a directive mandating ID verification for mobile money transactions above a certain threshold to counter cybercrime and financial fraud.

• Protests in April: In Uganda, traders from major cities protested against the Uganda Revenue Authority’s Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing Solution, leading to a nationwide closure of shops. Science tutors and ICT counterparts from Government Primary Teachers Colleges went on strike demanding reinstatement to the science pay scale. In Ntungamo District, residents clashed with police over unfulfilled presidential pledges related to agricultural assistance. Landowners in Hoima City demanded compensation before eviction for an oil development project. Students at Busitema University Arapai campus protested against tuition fee surcharges. These events caused disruptions in commerce, education, community relations, and infrastructure development projects across the country.

• Purge/Replace in May and June: In Uganda, a motion to censure four Parliamentary Commissioners, including the former Leader of Opposition, has been initiated for allegedly abusing office and sharing significant funds as ‘service awards,’ with support from both ruling and opposition legislators. President Museveni has directed an investigation into the Speaker of Parliament over undisclosed property ownership in the UK. The President of the Justice Forum (JEEMA) announced leadership changes within the party in preparation for the 2026 general elections. President Museveni appointed a new deputy Inspector General of Police and a new executive director for the Uganda National Bureau of Standards (UNBS). The Central Executive Committee of the National Resistance Movement party dismissed all current sectoral committee heads and their deputies in Parliament, citing corruption allegations. President Museveni threatened not to sign the Appropriation Bill for 2024 unless Parliament redirected Shs750 billion back to government priorities. In Kalungu District, the Chairman removed five opposition councillors from the district executive committee, replacing them with members from the ruling party. The Uganda Prisons Service executed a large-scale reshuffle aimed at enhancing efficiency and integrity across its ranks. The US government imposed sanctions on the president of the Uganda Football Association for corruption issues.

• Raids in June: In Uganda, the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) resumed its crackdown on illegal structures in the Lubigi wetland, leading to the displacement of over 1,000 people. The homes of three legislators were searched in connection with an alleged budget corruption scandal involving officials from the Parliament and the Finance Ministry. The National Drugs Authority (NDA) conducted a crackdown on illegal drug outlets in northern Uganda, seizing a significant quantity of drugs. The police searched the home of an MP in relation to allegations of mismanagement and embezzlement of funds meant for compensating cooperatives. Over 600 people lost their jobs following the closure of the CN sugar factory in Namayingo District due to failure to meet operational requirements.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Ukraine

For Ukraine, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in May: The Council of the European Union suspended four major Russian outlets—Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestia, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta—for spreading propaganda and supporting the war against Ukraine, while some activities like research or interviews remain permissible. Following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decree, Ukraine blocked at least 600 illegal online gambling websites and launched investigations into over 450 criminal offenses related to illegal gambling. The Supreme Council of Ukraine limited the number of media representatives allowed to attend Parliament sessions to 20-30 people, citing the need for special instruction and safety measures.

• Corruption in April: The Agriculture Minister, Mykola Solskyi, was accused and arrested for illegally appropriating state-owned land and attempting to seize additional land valued at over Hr 481 million ($12.1 million), with bail set at Hr 200 million ($5 million). A corruption scheme involving Ukrzaliznytsia led to the embezzlement of Hr 95 million ($2.4 million), implicating seven individuals, including former Presidential Office advisor Artem Shylo. The former head of the Supreme Court faced detention for accepting a bribe to influence a ruling in favor of a billionaire, resulting in suspension and asset seizure. Another scheme involved the embezzlement of $9.8 million allocated for transformer purchases during the war.

• Legal Actions in April: The Supreme Court of Ukraine resolved a legal battle involving Kabmin and Privatbank against the Surkis family’s non-resident companies by nullifying an enforcement order that sought to recover nearly $350 million from Privatbank. In a separate case, Ukraine’s Supreme Anti-Corruption Court convicted a former member of the People’s Congress, Alexander Onishchenko, in the “gas case,” sentencing him to 15 years for siphoning 740 million hryvnias of public funds. Furthermore, a Ukrainian court decided to extend the detention of notable businessman Igor Kolomoisky until June 2024, albeit reducing his bail amount. Additionally, Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation has been actively looking into 1,633 cases of suspected treason and has identified 1,072 individuals as suspects since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

• Legal Changes in April: The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, signed laws to strengthen the country’s mobilization efforts by changing the draft age and updating military service rules, alongside enhancing protections for military and police personnel. Additionally, the U.S. Congress passed a substantial aid package to support Ukraine with military and economic resources, and Ukraine’s parliament approved a bill to bring the country’s education policies in line with EU standards.

• Security Mobilization in May: On May 10, Russia initiated a new campaign against Kharkiv Oblast, deploying over 30,000 troops and concentrating on areas such as Lyptsi and Vovchansk, leading to intense combat situations and the responsive deployment of additional Ukrainian forces for defense. Despite initial progress by Russian troops aimed at establishing a buffer zone in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces effectively stabilized the front lines, managing to thwart the advance and even reclaim some territory. This series of engagements prompted an enhancement of Ukrainian defenses, underscored by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call for increased military aid and strengthening of positions, amidst a backdrop of reinforced NATO presence in neighboring regions.

• Lethal Violence in March, April and May: On March 2, Russian drone attacks on Odesa resulted in the deaths of 12 people, including five children, and injured 20 others, with significant damage to apartment buildings. A drone strike on Kharkiv on March 20 led to the deaths of five civilians and injured seven others, including children, causing considerable damage to an eight-story building and a large-scale fire. The port of Odesa was targeted in an airstrike on March 15, killing 21 people and injuring 75, affecting the area’s infrastructure. In Kryvyi Rih, a missile attack on March 12 killed six people, injured seven others, and damaged multiple residential buildings. On April 17, an attack on Chernihiv resulted in 18 deaths and 78 injuries. On April 10, Odesa was struck by missiles, leading to six fatalities, including a child, and injuring 14 others. A missile strike on an industrial facility in Zaporizhzhia earlier in April killed three people and injured eight, while a drone attack on Kharkiv killed four individuals, including three first responders, and injured 12. On May 25, a Russian attack on a construction hypermarket in Kharkiv resulted in at least 18 deaths and 44 injuries. A Russian artillery strike on a residential area and a multi-story building in Kharkiv on May 31 killed three and injured at least 25. On May 19, a strike on a recreational area in Kharkiv killed six civilians, including a pregnant woman, and injured 27. In Hirnyk, Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces targeted the city with Uragan multiple rocket launchers on May 1, resulting in two civilian deaths and six injuries. Another missile attack on a crowded shopping center in Kharkiv on May 25 killed at least 12 people and injured 43.

• Non-lethal Violence in March, April and May: On March 21, a missile strike in Kiev injured at least 13 individuals, including a child, and damaged homes, kindergartens, vehicles, and other infrastructure. The Kharkiv region faced ongoing air and artillery assaults, resulting in extensive damage to civilian buildings and numerous casualties. From March 22-23, Russia launched drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian cities such as Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih, targeting energy facilities and causing considerable damage and casualties. A drone attack on March 2 critically damaged a residential building in Odesa, killing eight and destroying multiple apartments. On April 9, a missile strike in Chernig resulted in approximately 80 individuals seeking medical attention, with over 40 being hospitalized. On April 10, Russian troops damaged critical infrastructure in Odesa and Mykolaiv. The next day, over 80 missiles and drones were launched by Russian forces against Ukraine, focusing on energy infrastructure. Russian air strikes conducted 31 rocket attacks and 46 air raids across Ukraine, targeting civilian areas and infrastructure. In retaliation, Ukrainian drones targeted two oil depots in Russia’s Smolansky Oblast, destroying 26,000 cubic meters of fuel. On May 21, drones deployed by Russian occupation forces injured seven individuals in Kharkiv and caused explosions in the Odessa and Poltava regions. On May 5, shelling in downtown Kharkiv injured at least 15 people, including children. Continuous bombardments targeting Kharkiv and its surrounding areas resulted in multiple civilian injuries and significant damage to residential structures. On May 1, ballistic missiles struck Odessa, injuring at least 14 people and damaging civilian infrastructure, including a postal depot. On the night of May 22, a coordinated defense effort destroyed 24 drones launched by Russian forces into various regions of Ukraine.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Timor Leste

Timor Leste is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of March 2024. Over the last three months, we have not seen increases in reporting on any of the major events.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.