N Parameters
Using data from a 2006 primary election in Michigan, which analyzes what extent people are motivated to vote by social pressure, we are trying to analyze if postcards influence whether people will vote or not in the upcoming Texas general election. A problem we encounter is that the voters in Michigan vote differently from voters in Texas because of their political landscapes. To calculate this, we are using a linear model which evaluates the difference that each postcard has on whether or not a person votes. We also modeled whether the respondent voted in the 2006 primary election, and found that people who have been voting in the past are more likely to vote again. We have calculated that the most effective way to get voters of all types to vote is by sending postcards that neighbors will have access to one’s voting status.
\[y_{i} = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} age\_z + \beta_{2}male_i + \beta_{3}civic\_duty_i + \\ \beta_{4}hawthorne_i + \beta_{5}self_i + \beta_{6}neighbors_i + \\ \beta_{7}Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{8}Always\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{9}civic\_duty_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{10}hawthorne_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{11}self_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{11}neighbors_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{12}civic\_duty_i Always\ vote_i + \beta_{13}hawthorne_i Always\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{14}self_i Always\ vote_i + \beta_{15}neighbors_i Always\ vote_i + \epsilon_{i}\]
| Characteristic | Beta | 95% CI1 |
|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 0.155 | 0.137, 0.174 |
| age_z | 0.036 | 0.031, 0.042 |
| sex | ||
| sexMale | 0.004 | -0.005, 0.014 |
| treatment | ||
| No Postcard | — | — |
| treatmentCivicDuty | 0.016 | -0.027, 0.057 |
| Hawthorne | 0.004 | -0.037, 0.043 |
| Self | -0.007 | -0.049, 0.035 |
| Neighbors | 0.084 | 0.041, 0.126 |
| voter_class | ||
| Rarely Vote | — | — |
| voter_classSometimesVote | 0.115 | 0.095, 0.135 |
| voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.298 | 0.275, 0.321 |
| treatment * voter_class | ||
| treatmentCivicDuty * voter_classSometimesVote | -0.005 | -0.051, 0.043 |
| Hawthorne * voter_classSometimesVote | 0.010 | -0.033, 0.054 |
| Self * voter_classSometimesVote | 0.059 | 0.012, 0.106 |
| Neighbors * voter_classSometimesVote | -0.009 | -0.057, 0.038 |
| treatmentCivicDuty * voter_classAlwaysVote | -0.009 | -0.061, 0.045 |
| Hawthorne * voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.034 | -0.017, 0.086 |
| Self * voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.047 | -0.007, 0.100 |
| Neighbors * voter_classAlwaysVote | -0.002 | -0.056, 0.050 |
| 1 CI = Credible Interval | ||