Analysis
Characteristic |
Beta |
95% CI 1 |
|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 0.155 | 0.136, 0.174 |
| age_z | 0.036 | 0.031, 0.041 |
| sex | ||
| sexMale | 0.004 | -0.005, 0.014 |
| treatment | ||
| No Postcard | — | — |
| treatmentCivicDuty | 0.016 | -0.026, 0.059 |
| Hawthorne | 0.005 | -0.034, 0.047 |
| Self | -0.007 | -0.049, 0.035 |
| Neighbors | 0.084 | 0.041, 0.125 |
| voter_class | ||
| Rarely Vote | — | — |
| voter_classSometimesVote | 0.115 | 0.096, 0.134 |
| voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.298 | 0.275, 0.321 |
| treatment * voter_class | ||
| treatmentCivicDuty * voter_classSometimesVote | -0.005 | -0.052, 0.041 |
| Hawthorne * voter_classSometimesVote | 0.009 | -0.035, 0.054 |
| Self * voter_classSometimesVote | 0.059 | 0.013, 0.105 |
| Neighbors * voter_classSometimesVote | -0.009 | -0.054, 0.037 |
| treatmentCivicDuty * voter_classAlwaysVote | -0.009 | -0.063, 0.044 |
| Hawthorne * voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.033 | -0.020, 0.085 |
| Self * voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.047 | -0.007, 0.102 |
| Neighbors * voter_classAlwaysVote | -0.003 | -0.057, 0.050 |
| 1
CI = Credible Interval |
||
Using the data from an experiment that tried to find out to what extent people are pushed to vote by social pressure, we want to see the causal effect on voting turnout of sending postcards in the Texas general election of 2026. Stability may not be true in this case, because the view of politics has changed since 2006, with the rise of social media. We modeled primary_06, a binary 0/1 integer variable indicating whether the respondent voted in the 2006 primary election, and the type of postcard they recieved. People who have been voting in the past are more likely to vote again. From that data, we have created a 95% confidence interval for the treatment effect of various postcards: between 8% to 10%.
\[y_{i} = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} age\_z + \beta_{2}male_i + \beta_{3}civic\_duty_i + \\ \beta_{4}hawthorne_i + \beta_{5}self_i + \beta_{6}neighbors_i + \\ \beta_{7}Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{8}Always\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{9}civic\_duty_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{10}hawthorne_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{11}self_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{11}neighbors_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{12}civic\_duty_i Always\ vote_i + \beta_{13}hawthorne_i Always\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{14}self_i Always\ vote_i + \beta_{15}neighbors_i Always\ vote_i + \epsilon_{i}\]