N Parameters
We are attempting to answer the question: What will be the causal effect of postcards on voting in the 2026 Texas election? The data source is voting data from Michigan in 2006. While the data source is from Michigan the question we have is for Texas. We made a Gaussian model. People who have been voting in the past are more likely to vote again.
\[y_{i} = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} age\_z + \beta_{2}male_i + \beta_{3}civic\_duty_i + \\ \beta_{4}hawthorne_i + \beta_{5}self_i + \beta_{6}neighbors_i + \\ \beta_{7}Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{8}Always\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{9}civic\_duty_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{10}hawthorne_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{11}self_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \beta_{11}neighbors_i Sometimes\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{12}civic\_duty_i Always\ vote_i + \beta_{13}hawthorne_i Always\ vote_i + \\ \beta_{14}self_i Always\ vote_i + \beta_{15}neighbors_i Always\ vote_i + \epsilon_{i}\]
Warning in tidy.brmsfit(x, ..., effects = "fixed"): some parameter names
contain underscores: term naming may be unreliable!Characteristic |
Beta |
95% CI 1 |
|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 0.156 | 0.137, 0.174 |
| age_z | 0.036 | 0.031, 0.042 |
| sex | ||
| sexMale | 0.004 | -0.005, 0.014 |
| treatment | ||
| No Postcard | — | — |
| treatmentCivicDuty | 0.016 | -0.028, 0.058 |
| Hawthorne | 0.004 | -0.036, 0.046 |
| Self | -0.007 | -0.047, 0.037 |
| Neighbors | 0.084 | 0.042, 0.126 |
| voter_class | ||
| Rarely Vote | — | — |
| voter_classSometimesVote | 0.114 | 0.094, 0.134 |
| voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.298 | 0.276, 0.320 |
| treatment * voter_class | ||
| treatmentCivicDuty * voter_classSometimesVote | -0.004 | -0.052, 0.044 |
| Hawthorne * voter_classSometimesVote | 0.010 | -0.036, 0.055 |
| Self * voter_classSometimesVote | 0.059 | 0.012, 0.104 |
| Neighbors * voter_classSometimesVote | -0.009 | -0.055, 0.036 |
| treatmentCivicDuty * voter_classAlwaysVote | -0.009 | -0.063, 0.046 |
| Hawthorne * voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.035 | -0.017, 0.085 |
| Self * voter_classAlwaysVote | 0.047 | -0.006, 0.099 |
| Neighbors * voter_classAlwaysVote | -0.002 | -0.054, 0.052 |
| 1
CI = Credible Interval |
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